On 31 Oct 2013, at 18:54, John Clark wrote:


On Thu, Oct 31, 2013 at 1:04 PM, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:

> this distracts from the question asked, which concerns the first person pov, from the first person pov. That is the first person experience. [...] Comp accepts that both copies are equivalent (with respect to identity) continuations of the original, but the prediction bears on the first person experience.

It is a mystery that Marchal can not get it through his head that copying a person means there are now 2 identical first person experiences because YOU HAS BEEN DUPLICATED, and the 2 will remain identical until one sees something that the other has not.

Which is the time he has to confirmed his previous prediction.



> If 100% was true, for P(W), we would have, in the iterated version, the history WWWWWWW... having a 100% probability, yet, all diaries but one, will contradict that prediction.

If "you" predicted that "you" will see Washington and "you" does see Washington then the prediction that there was a 100% chance that "you" will see Washington was correct and it doesn't matter how many people who also lay claim to the title "you" don't see Washington.

The same can be said for a coin throwing. the guy who predict "tail", and got "tail" can says that his prediction was correct. So if your argument can be used against the FPI, it works for MWI and for coin throwing. You are mocking any notion of probability.




> The proba concerns the first person experience that you will live, and recall in the next instants, by writing it in the diary.

The diary is useless because the diary was written by "you" and contains predictions about the further adventures of "you", but now there are 2 (or more) people with the title "you" ...


..., but now there are 2 (or more) people IN THE THIRD PERSON POV, but the question concern the FIRST PERSON POV. And in Helsinki, you knew this in advance. You know that you will survive and experience being in only one place.

... and no way to determine which one the diary was referring to.

False. It is very easy. In both city the diary is the one you have with where you have found to be, and it is the diary containing the prediction written in Helsinki.



And the diary is useless because good predictions have no more to do with identity or a sense of self than bad predictions.

Exactly. So if you wrote W & M, both copies know that the prediction is wrong. With "W v M", both copies know that the prediction was correct.

You continue to ignore that the question concerns the 1-you, as seen by the 1-you, and not any 3-view of the situation.

Bruno





  John K Clark



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http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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