On 23 June 2014 06:24, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote: > > On 22 Jun 2014, at 19:49, John Clark wrote: > > On Sun, Jun 22, 2014 at 7:15 AM, LizR <lizj...@gmail.com> wrote: > > >> the probability that Mr. He will see Moscow is 1.0 not 0.5 as Bruno >>> says. >>> >> >> > I agree, >> > > Good. > > > but >> > > But? There is no "but", Bruno predicted 0.5, we observe 1.0, game over. > > OK. That would be a good exercise for Liz. Showing that there is a 1-3 > confusion here (is it volontarily?). >
Well, I have experienced this confusion myself when I think too hard about comp or the MWI. In both cases I "know" that I will experience all possible futures, in the sense that someone who is (in the jargon) fungible with me will experience them all. But I can't help myself thinking as though I will only experience one of them. When I look up the weather for tomorrow on-line, I plan to wear a raincoat and carry an umbrella (say - especially at this time of year) even though I know the met office is only giving me one of any number of futures, all equally real - freak sunshine, comets, cloudy with meatballs... > > I predict only "0.5" in most diaries. The prediction is about the first > person experience, as seen from the first person themselves, which are the > one writing either M, or W, and never both in their histories. Bruno > predicts 1.0 only in the 3p-diary. > If I knew for a fact that I was going through a duplicator, I might well put 1.0 in my diary, because I would know and accept what the "3p" situation was. But retrospectively, I would say, "well, it seems I ended up in Moscow!" - as though there was a 0.5 chance that I would find myself here, being me, now, rather than over in W being the other me... However this is all psychological, if I know the situation then it's merely my inability to think 3p-aly, to misquote "Back to the furture", that would make me think the chance was 0.5. In practice there is a 100% chance of me seeing both places, if I define "me" as me-before in that statement, because me-before ends up in both places, at least for a split second (before the copies diverge). But I have to admit that me-before will not see them both at the same time, or with the same eyes! (At this point I have to take my medicine and lie down in a dark room for a while...) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
