On 23 June 2014 06:24, Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote: > > On 22 Jun 2014, at 19:49, John Clark wrote: > > On Sun, Jun 22, 2014 at 7:15 AM, LizR <[email protected]> wrote: > > >> the probability that Mr. He will see Moscow is 1.0 not 0.5 as Bruno >>> says. >>> >> >> > I agree, >> > > Good. > > > but >> > > But? There is no "but", Bruno predicted 0.5, we observe 1.0, game over. > > OK. That would be a good exercise for Liz. Showing that there is a 1-3 > confusion here (is it volontarily?). >
Well, I have experienced this confusion myself when I think too hard about comp or the MWI. In both cases I "know" that I will experience all possible futures, in the sense that someone who is (in the jargon) fungible with me will experience them all. But I can't help myself thinking as though I will only experience one of them. When I look up the weather for tomorrow on-line, I plan to wear a raincoat and carry an umbrella (say - especially at this time of year) even though I know the met office is only giving me one of any number of futures, all equally real - freak sunshine, comets, cloudy with meatballs... > > I predict only "0.5" in most diaries. The prediction is about the first > person experience, as seen from the first person themselves, which are the > one writing either M, or W, and never both in their histories. Bruno > predicts 1.0 only in the 3p-diary. > If I knew for a fact that I was going through a duplicator, I might well put 1.0 in my diary, because I would know and accept what the "3p" situation was. But retrospectively, I would say, "well, it seems I ended up in Moscow!" - as though there was a 0.5 chance that I would find myself here, being me, now, rather than over in W being the other me... However this is all psychological, if I know the situation then it's merely my inability to think 3p-aly, to misquote "Back to the furture", that would make me think the chance was 0.5. In practice there is a 100% chance of me seeing both places, if I define "me" as me-before in that statement, because me-before ends up in both places, at least for a split second (before the copies diverge). But I have to admit that me-before will not see them both at the same time, or with the same eyes! (At this point I have to take my medicine and lie down in a dark room for a while...) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
