On 9/6/2015 4:59 PM, Brent Meeker wrote:
On 9/6/2015 4:38 PM, Jason Resch wrote:
You may not be certain, but you know what the possibilities are, and
I would argue, what the probabilites are as well.
Knowing possibilities isn't enough. Probability requires a measure. Of
course you're free to assume one or intuit one or guess one...but that
doesn't connect to the mechanics of the world.
Brent
What would you consider to be the minimum fair pay out X if you had
to pay $1 on each of the days, and would be awarded $X if you guessed
correctly which day it was?
Jason
On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:17 PM, John Mikes <jami...@gmail.com
<mailto:jami...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Q #3 is irrelevant, after Q #2.
The answer is "I DUNNO" unless you detect indications for a
better one.
JM
On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:27 PM, Jason Resch
<jasonre...@gmail.com> wrote:
You will undergo the following experiment:
1. During the weekend you will be put to sleep with a drug
and not be woken up until Monday.
2. On monday you will be woken up and asked what day it is.
*How do you answer?*
3. You are then given a drug to put you to sleep again and
also given a drug that induces amnesia of being woken up at
all on Monday.
4. You are woken up on Tuesday, and asked what day it is.
*How do you answer?*
*If asked to ascribe a probability to it being Monday when
you are woken up, how do you answer on either of the days you
are awoken?*
That seems to be a purely subjective "probability". It's like
saying, "I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 10. What's the
probability it's 5?" I'm not sure you can get to Born's rule from there.
Brent
(I am particularly interested in John Clark's answer to the
final question)
Jason
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