On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 8:23 PM, Brent Meeker <[email protected]> wrote:
> $2, because you can just say "Monday" each time you're asked. It has > nothing to do with probabilities. It's a good analogue of the MWI problem; > when everything is deterministic and everything happens there's no > objective measure. > There are many "interpretations" of prboability: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations I think the thought experiment I describe is an example of probability under the "frequentist" definition. Jason > > > Brent > > On 9/6/2015 4:38 PM, Jason Resch wrote: > > You may not be certain, but you know what the possibilities are, and I > would argue, what the probabilites are as well. > > What would you consider to be the minimum fair pay out X if you had to pay > $1 on each of the days, and would be awarded $X if you guessed correctly > which day it was? > > Jason > > On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:17 PM, John Mikes <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Q #3 is irrelevant, after Q #2. >> The answer is "I DUNNO" unless you detect indications for a better one. >> JM >> >> On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:27 PM, Jason Resch < <[email protected]> >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> You will undergo the following experiment: >>> >>> 1. During the weekend you will be put to sleep with a drug and not be >>> woken up until Monday. >>> 2. On monday you will be woken up and asked what day it is. *How do you >>> answer?* >>> 3. You are then given a drug to put you to sleep again and also given a >>> drug that induces amnesia of being woken up at all on Monday. >>> 4. You are woken up on Tuesday, and asked what day it is. *How do you >>> answer?* >>> >>> *If asked to ascribe a probability to it being Monday when you are woken >>> up, how do you answer on either of the days you are awoken?* >>> >>> (I am particularly interested in John Clark's answer to the final >>> question) >>> >>> Jason >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "Everything List" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> To post to this group, send email to <[email protected]> >>> [email protected]. >>> Visit this group at <http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >>> For more options, visit <https://groups.google.com/d/optout> >>> https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to <[email protected]> >> [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to <[email protected]> >> [email protected]. >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
