On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 8:23 PM, Brent Meeker <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:
> $2, because you can just say "Monday" each time you're asked. It has > nothing to do with probabilities. It's a good analogue of the MWI problem; > when everything is deterministic and everything happens there's no > objective measure. > There are many "interpretations" of prboability: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations I think the thought experiment I describe is an example of probability under the "frequentist" definition. Jason > > > Brent > > On 9/6/2015 4:38 PM, Jason Resch wrote: > > You may not be certain, but you know what the possibilities are, and I > would argue, what the probabilites are as well. > > What would you consider to be the minimum fair pay out X if you had to pay > $1 on each of the days, and would be awarded $X if you guessed correctly > which day it was? > > Jason > > On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:17 PM, John Mikes <jami...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> Q #3 is irrelevant, after Q #2. >> The answer is "I DUNNO" unless you detect indications for a better one. >> JM >> >> On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:27 PM, Jason Resch < <jasonre...@gmail.com> >> jasonre...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> You will undergo the following experiment: >>> >>> 1. During the weekend you will be put to sleep with a drug and not be >>> woken up until Monday. >>> 2. On monday you will be woken up and asked what day it is. *How do you >>> answer?* >>> 3. You are then given a drug to put you to sleep again and also given a >>> drug that induces amnesia of being woken up at all on Monday. >>> 4. You are woken up on Tuesday, and asked what day it is. *How do you >>> answer?* >>> >>> *If asked to ascribe a probability to it being Monday when you are woken >>> up, how do you answer on either of the days you are awoken?* >>> >>> (I am particularly interested in John Clark's answer to the final >>> question) >>> >>> Jason >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "Everything List" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >>> To post to this group, send email to <everything-list@googlegroups.com> >>> everything-list@googlegroups.com. >>> Visit this group at <http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list> >>> http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >>> For more options, visit <https://groups.google.com/d/optout> >>> https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to <everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com> >> everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> To post to this group, send email to <everything-list@googlegroups.com> >> everything-list@googlegroups.com. >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
