$2, because you can just say "Monday" each time you're asked. It has
nothing to do with probabilities. It's a good analogue of the MWI
problem; when everything is deterministic and everything happens there's
no objective measure.
Brent
On 9/6/2015 4:38 PM, Jason Resch wrote:
You may not be certain, but you know what the possibilities are, and I
would argue, what the probabilites are as well.
What would you consider to be the minimum fair pay out X if you had to
pay $1 on each of the days, and would be awarded $X if you guessed
correctly which day it was?
Jason
On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:17 PM, John Mikes <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Q #3 is irrelevant, after Q #2.
The answer is "I DUNNO" unless you detect indications for a better
one.
JM
On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 4:27 PM, Jason Resch <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
You will undergo the following experiment:
1. During the weekend you will be put to sleep with a drug and
not be woken up until Monday.
2. On monday you will be woken up and asked what day it is.
*How do you answer?*
3. You are then given a drug to put you to sleep again and
also given a drug that induces amnesia of being woken up at
all on Monday.
4. You are woken up on Tuesday, and asked what day it is. *How
do you answer?*
*If asked to ascribe a probability to it being Monday when you
are woken up, how do you answer on either of the days you are
awoken?*
(I am particularly interested in John Clark's answer to the
final question)
Jason
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