On 8/09/2015 3:59 pm, Stathis Papaioannou wrote:
On 8 September 2015 at 08:52, Bruce Kellett <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
On 8/09/2015 8:11 am, Stathis Papaioannou wrote:
On Tuesday, September 8, 2015, Brent Meeker <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
On 9/6/2015 10:49 PM, Stathis Papaioannou wrote:
On Monday, September 7, 2015, Brent Meeker
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
On 9/6/2015 7:20 PM, Jason Resch wrote:
On Sun, Sep 6, 2015 at 8:23 PM, Brent Meeker
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
$2, because you can just say "Monday" each time
you're asked. It has nothing to do with
probabilities. It's a good analogue of the MWI
problem; when everything is deterministic and
everything happens there's no objective measure.
There are many "interpretations" of prboability:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations
I think the thought experiment I describe is an example
of probability under the "frequentist" definition.
No, there's no randomness in it. There's no distribution
to approximate in repeated trials.
It's the same kind of randomness that emerges from multiverse
theories.
Right, a kind which doesn't (in most models) have a
probability interpretation because there's no clear measure.
You presumably estimate probabilities in everyday life, and
generally it serves you well.
Sure, I make subjective estimates by hypothesizing some
ensemble of possibilities with a measure on it - but I don't
infer from this that all those hypotheticals really happen or
that the probability I come up with is an objective fact about
the world.
But can you infer something about the nature of the world from the
fact that probabilities seem to be useful?
Only that none of us is omniscient!
If all possibilities are realised then we are in a sense omniscient -
although it is not a useful omniscience since we cannot say which
possibility we will see next.
We are not omniscient is because not all possibilities are realized in
the world we inhabit. Anything else is pure speculation.
Bruce
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