I think Apache should not take an active part in any forks, as it could ruin the long-standing approval with the commercial community.
However I think going the Jenkins fork route is the way for these communities that want to move forward: Move to GitHub, change the name & logo, clean up IP, actively grow the community (e.g. add to the GH organisation after 2 pull requests), make frequent releases (not too ambitious design changes), have nice and professional looking web pages, etc. A bit of noise in the process is necessary so the fork gets attention. It is a hostile fork, but community-backed. Give it a year or two, and the fork could be stronger and independent - at which point I think ASF would have less qualms about accepting the new community - it would kind of be pre-incubated. A GitHub fork also makes the fall shorter if the original copyright holders change their mind and embrace Open Development; they can then (at least in theory) re-merge the communities by approving the new name as "official successor" and join the effort; perhaps at that point a move to ASF would be a very good option to form new neutral ground.
