Hello everybody,

Mike asked about covert invasions. That made me think about 
ways and reasons to hide the invasion ...

* For gaming purposes, there will be a big difference between
  a covert invasion of a little alien species, which is going 
  to wreck the ecosystem in a couple of decades or centuries,
  and little green (or grey) men who are covertly setting up 
  a base and snatch cattle. 

  In my earlier post, I mentioned the difference between a 
  sentient enemy and a monster -- the player characters could 
  try to inflitrate the Grey base, but they couldn't do that 
  to an invasion of rabbits or kudzu. Rabbits won't try to 
  take control of the White House or the USAF, either. 

* A covert invasion by sentient aliens could be just the first
  wave, to scout Earth's defenses and to prepare the ground 
  for follow-up troops. But would that be properly called an
  invasion, or is it pre-invasion intel gathering?

  It wouldn't feel right to call the SOE agents who dropped 
  into France in 1941 the first wave of the Normandy landings. 
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Operations_Executive

  Maybe a covert force would count as an invasion if it has 
  plans to take control of the target world without any
  further reinforcement, and without much breeding. 

* Are they planning to go overt at some time? When? Do they 
  have to reduce the defenses of the target world by subtle
  means before the final strike, or are they just waiting 
  for the right time? Perhaps the Survey Fleet dropped the 
  invaders and went home to call the Colonizer Fleet. Now 
  the covert invaders are sipping drinks in tropical 
  resort until it is time to break out the guns and 
  genetic engineering kits. 

* How are they hiding, anyway? Do they look like humans (or
  like the locals, if the target world isn't Earth)? Could 
  they walk un_recognized_ on our streets? Or do they have 
  to stay un_seen_? By living in remote spots, maybe?

  Do they have human henchmen? How did they get them? Do 
  they have some form of mind control, or is it blackmail,
  or a promise of preferential status as a quisling after 
  the invasion?

  Blackmail and promises are not foolproof, for mind control
  that depends on the TL. 

* Do the governments know about the invaders? Or perhaps 
  just some agencies? Did they secretly surrender, are they
  secretly arming for the time the invasion goes overt, or 
  are they already fighting a covert war?

* Do the invaders want to subjugate humanity, or do they 
  want to replace it with their own? If they want genocide, 
  on what timescale? If they want subjugation, how many 
  invaders will come, and what do they demand?

  An absurd little scenario: An Evil Overlord has a dozen 
  henchmen, a small TL12^ starship, robots, and nanotech. 
  He demonstrates that he can easily defeat any TL8 
  defense, and demands that Earth surrenders. All major 
  governments do so. What then? The ship can carry off 
  a couple tons of loot per trip -- at that rate, stealing 
  the global gold reserves might take a millenium even if 
  nothing new is mined. 

  The Evil Overlord and the henchmen could live in luxury
  if they could trust their human servants, of course ...
  luxury by a TL8 standard, when they are used to TL12^. 

  The only thing Earth might have to offer is sanctuary 
  from even more powerful enemies, or things that would 
  be outlawed on the TL12^ world. Maybe the Evil Overlord
  likes to have sentient slaves, and more advanced worlds
  won't let him. 

Of course that is still pretty general. Let's get down to
the rules. Has anybody ever tried to calculate the Troop 
Strength of Earth according to the Mass Combat rules?

GT had pretty generic rules in Ground Forces, which would 
give Earth roughly 20,000 Battalion Equivalents (BE). One 
BE represents one battalion of regular infantry and their 
supporting troops, or half a battalion of tanks. For 
simplicity, call it all infantry, and there would be 
perhaps 10,000,000 infantrymen[1] and 30,000,000 other 
soldiers. The infantry alone would have TS 160,000,000.

To get that troop strength out of TL12^ Flying Tanks, you
need 25,000 individual grav tanks[2]. At 50 tanks per 
battalion and 10 battalions per pure tank division, we're
talking about 50 divisions. 

These are extremely rough calculations, I didn't go into 
special unit superiority, etc., but you can see that it 
takes a LOT of TL12^ troops to deal with a high-population
world like Earth. 

So maybe that is a reason to step softly at first?

Regards,
Onno

[1] Not all of them are TL8, but then I'm assuming average
    troops and basic gear. It is just about getting the 
    right ballpark.
[2] Again, it isn't realistic that it would be a pure 
    tank force, but I'm aiming for the order of magnitude.
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