Hello everybody,
one key question is the relative tech level. In 3E, there were a
few times of opportunity for lower-TL invaders to beat higher-TL
victims:
* TL11 could beat TL12, if TL12 wasn't on a war footing and all
other things were equal.
* Late TL9 could beat TL10, if TL10 wasn't on a war footing, the
late TL9 society had FTL[1] and all other things were equal.
* Uneven development gives more options -- TL10 with hyperdrive
or warp and reactionless vs. hard science TL11 or TL12.
In 4E, the availability of TL^ technologies makes things even
more uneven. The difference between TL8^ with superscience and
TL9 or TL10 without superscience are enormous.
On a very abstract level, it comes down to
- Invasion by near-equals
- Invasion by superiors (colonization)
- Invasion by inferiors (barbarian raiders)
Another key question is the "operational objective" of the
invaders:
* Are there significant populations that would support the
invader, and which would have to be preserved during the
invasion? That gives both a limit to collateral damage,
and possibly a time limit as the remaining population
turns on the "turncoats".
* Do they want to conquer both the planet and the population,
or at least most of it? Colonization on the Indian/African
pattern, or petty wars like 17th or 18th century Europe --
you tell the serfs that they're now going to pay their
taxes to somebody else. Substantial collateral damage may
be acceptable, if shooting one victim inspires ten others
to obey their new overlords, but depopulation isn't the
goal.
* Do they want the planet with the ecosphere and all other
natural assets, but not necessarily the population or even
their cities? Colonization on the North American or
Australian pattern[2].
* Would they be satisfied to plant their flag on a lifeless,
scorched rockball?
With the right technology, launching a dinosaur-killer rock is
the easy and cheap option. Getting boots on the ground and
making the locals obey is hard and expensive[3]. On the other
hand, when extermination is the goal, people will fight with
the power of desperation, where they might accept a change in
the distant ruler who collects taxes more calmly, as long as
the taxes don't go up too much.
And what are the stakes of the defenders?
* Are we talking about the homeworld (possibly the only world)
of a species, or is it just one colony among thousands?
* Would it be possible to evacuate the population of the
target world? The Vehicles of the Week 804, 805, 806 had
some numbers -- you can do it at TL14, while it is very
difficult at TL10, other TLs will fall in between.
Side note, are the invaders allowing this evacuation, or do
they see each refugee as a future soldier, and each
outgoing transport as a ship which carried something in?
Regards,
Onno
[1] Traditionally, prototype FTL used to be TL9. Vehicles only
has stats from TL10 up, so that got a bit forgotten.
[2] I'm not trying to start a debate about historical rights
or wrongs by using those labels.
[3] Iraq or Afghanistan come to the mind, but Germany and
Japan are counterexamples.
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