> > I've got more "effective" MIPS, > >MOPS, TFLOPS, etc. and a better pattern recognizer than a computer. > > Don't count on that lasting forever. Moore's law, after all. Sure, switch > density will reach a limit, but then there are three dimensions, and the > problem with AI now is not really computing power, but the programming problem.
Yes, this is getting off topic, but it's important for us tech folks to realize that Moore's Law is NOT a law of nature. It's a prediction. The law of gravity is a real, physical law of nature. Moore's law is a prediction based on an extrapolation of advances in the semiconductor industry starting some 30 years ago. It doesn't take into account any natural, real, physical limiting barriers. So it should be called "Moore's prediction". But "law" sounds so much more reassuring than "prediction". Actually, I don't think Moore himself called it a law. Some tech droid in the trade press heard it, called it a law, and ran with it. Some of us have been propagating that fiction ever since. Trade press fiction - is that redundant? I see some of the ridiculous trends in computing about to hit the wall. Yes, I know we have all heard that before. But consider: 1) Are we really going to see chips that run on 0.3V, drawing 5000A, and needing 1500W of cooling? Maybe in a lab, but no one will want to own one. The electricity bill, the room heating, the fan noise, oh my... 2) Are we really going to see chips built on such tiny processes that a single electron absence/presence contains the entire state of a logic element? What about susceptibility to RFI and background radiation? That could flip the state of the logic element. This phenomenon is already known in space electronics and is called the "single-event upset". 3) What happens when the public finally realizes that each new generation of chips' performance improvement gets nullified by each new software release? Folks, I'm not a pessimist, just a realist ;-) Protel is really going to have to make designing 10 GHz PCBs MUCH easier!!! Best regards, Ivan Baggett Bagotronix Inc. website: www.bagotronix.com * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * To post a message: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] * * To leave this list visit: * http://www.techservinc.com/protelusers/leave.html * * Contact the list manager: * mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] * * Forum Guidelines Rules: * http://www.techservinc.com/protelusers/forumrules.html * * Browse or Search previous postings: * http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
