Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I adopt the Trump style of argument at times From: Mike Hammett Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 3:34 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Chuck will argue otherwise, but I think few are in his position. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Travis Johnson" <t...@ida.net> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:06:37 AM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these are fees that I can NOT remove from my phone bill, so basically it's a tax... it's just a telephone tax rather than income or sales tax. Right? Travis On 1/12/2017 9:59 AM, Chuck McCown wrote: Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overearn, your welfare check gets cut, but in any case the guaranteed rate of return used to be 11.25%. And that is an ROI after cost recovery of legit expenses. That is an EBITDA ROR. Hard to pass up a deal like that. But the FCC is deflating that whole program. They pushed a whole bunch of these rural companies into a lucrative A-CAM deal that pays them a fixed amount for the next 10 years with the expectation of nothing after that. For the “buy out” they have to agree to upgrade to 25 Mbps service. They did cap executive pay for a while then repealed it, I think it is back on. And for the non A-CAM companies (it was an elective program) they are capping investment. But still, it is around $10K per dwelling. That may seem high, but I have personally had BLM permitting expenses equal $40K per dwelling alone with total cost of construction hitting $200K per dwelling. The magic of revenue pooling, no tax dollars are harmed in this scheme... From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:51 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Chuck, here’s a question for you. I seem to remember checking how much Frontier paid for customers Verizon and AT didn’t want, and I think it was around the same $2000/sub number that cable companies are typically priced at. Or maybe it was $1000 and I rationalized it in my mind as half of a cable customer because no TV. Either way, it was a lot of money for unwanted customers and decrepit infrastructure. Why such a high value? Why not $1? Are they factoring in an expected stream of USF/CAF subsidies as part of the value of buying a customer? Or are they just being stupid? I assume executive pay goes up the bigger the company grows, so maybe perverse incentives. Look at the marvelous Hindenburg we have built, it’s HUGE! From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the way to go. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 8:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes wen
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Chuck will argue otherwise, but I think few are in his position. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP - Original Message - From: "Travis Johnson" <t...@ida.net> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:06:37 AM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is " a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these are fees that I can NOT remove from my phone bill, so basically it's a tax... it's just a telephone tax rather than income or sales tax. Right? Travis On 1/12/2017 9:59 AM, Chuck McCown wrote: Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overearn, your welfare check gets cut, but in any case the guaranteed rate of return used to be 11.25%. And that is an ROI after cost recovery of legit expenses. That is an EBITDA ROR. Hard to pass up a deal like that. But the FCC is deflating that whole program. They pushed a whole bunch of these rural companies into a lucrative A-CAM deal that pays them a fixed amount for the next 10 years with the expectation of nothing after that. For the “buy out” they have to agree to upgrade to 25 Mbps service. They did cap executive pay for a while then repealed it, I think it is back on. And for the non A-CAM companies (it was an elective program) they are capping investment. But still, it is around $10K per dwelling. That may seem high, but I have personally had BLM permitting expenses equal $40K per dwelling alone with total cost of construction hitting $200K per dwelling. The magic of revenue pooling, no tax dollars are harmed in this scheme... From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:51 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Chuck, here’s a question for you. I seem to remember checking how much Frontier paid for customers Verizon and AT didn’t want, and I think it was around the same $2000/sub number that cable companies are typically priced at. Or maybe it was $1000 and I rationalized it in my mind as half of a cable customer because no TV. Either way, it was a lot of money for unwanted customers and decrepit infrastructure. Why such a high value? Why not $1? Are they factoring in an expected stream of USF/CAF subsidies as part of the value of buying a customer? Or are they just being stupid? I assume executive pay goes up the bigger the company grows, so maybe perverse incentives. Look at the marvelous Hindenburg we have built, it’s HUGE! From: Af [ mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com ] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the way to go. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 8:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes went back up, I heard a tutorial on how to groom your business for sale before the deadline. Basically you stop focusing on increasing revenue, and instead cut costs, it will immediately improve your EBITDA and therefore your valuation. I think we’ve all experienced this wh
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
High penetration rate for a small WISP would not necessarily make it more value to me as a potential purchase. No room to grow. From: Brian Webster Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 2:41 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? That is why I brought that point up. Most states have broadband adoption rates between 74 and 77 percent of the homes passed. That is the adoption rate for all broadband providers combined not any one carrier. Some higher adoption rates reach 80% and as Chuck mentioned in their particular neighborhoods they have achieved 84% which is not surprising if you are the first carrier in AND offer fiber. Their claim of 90% as one carrier in the face of competition is suspect as to what they think penetration is to them. I suspect it is the percentage of leads that come in to them and they close and make that lead a paying customer. Knowing the total potential homes passed and comparing that to the number of subscribers will tell you the WISP’s market penetration rate. Look at the other competitors in that same area and asses what may be potential for subscriber growth using the existing infrastructure. It would also be crucial to assess the potential for the sites to add dedicated PTP radios and be able to sell dedicated enterprise business connections. Many WISP’s are finding that as a tremendous growth market without having to do a large footprint expansion, and these customers are much higher revenue with less customer support requirements. It’s a different business model and sales mentality but for many WISP’s it’s a fairly easy overlay on their existing market area. If the WISP does not already have a coverage map created you should have one done so that you can see the true market potential and be able to calculate the homes passed. It is good to look at that potential compared to the competitive broadband providers and also look at where there may be overlap to your network. No sense paying for something you already can cover. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:34 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I am confused when he says they have 90% “take rate” yet there is another WISP competitor in the area. I assume there are also people with Hughesnet, Exede, mobile hotspots, and Luddites with no Internet. Perhaps he means something other than they have 90% of households in the coverage area as customers. I can understand with a $20 plan they could sweep up even the people who could almost use dialup. Still 90% market penetration in the face of competition seems amazing. I’m guessing 10% of households in my area don’t have any kind of fixed Internet, either because they don’t need no stinkin’ Internet, or because they just use the data plan on their smartphone. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:15 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? We see the asymptote converging on about 84% in our FTTH neighborhoods. From: Brian Webster Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 7:36 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? A couple of things that seem to always come up in these deals. One, what future revenue has already been taken by the current owners. What I mean by that are prepaid annual contracts, side deals on site rent in exchange for relay sites, stuff like that. Second, is the owners tend to want you to buy their potential. When you say 90% take rate you should dig in to those numbers. The highest adoption rate in America are only about 80% of households passed. Are they saying 90% take rate on leads that come in? How many homes does their network potentially cover vs. number of subscribers. How much competition is there for those homes. What equipment do they have deployed, signal levels and client distances? This will have a big effect on your ability to upsell bandwidth. If the clients are all marginal connections you will not have the ability to deliver much capacity off the sectors if you want to upsell or if customer want more bandwidth. This means upgrades at your own cost. Third, look very carefully at tower site leases or agreements. Are there any? Do they allow for a transfer of ownership and stay in effect? Are there balloon rent increases that would change your forecasts? Do they have renewal terms that are long enough for you to make your money on the purchase of their company? Large company or small being purchased the tower site agreements are one very important thing to dig deep on the details. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Mike Hammett Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 9:08 PM To: af
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
That is why I brought that point up. Most states have broadband adoption rates between 74 and 77 percent of the homes passed. That is the adoption rate for all broadband providers combined not any one carrier. Some higher adoption rates reach 80% and as Chuck mentioned in their particular neighborhoods they have achieved 84% which is not surprising if you are the first carrier in AND offer fiber. Their claim of 90% as one carrier in the face of competition is suspect as to what they think penetration is to them. I suspect it is the percentage of leads that come in to them and they close and make that lead a paying customer. Knowing the total potential homes passed and comparing that to the number of subscribers will tell you the WISP’s market penetration rate. Look at the other competitors in that same area and asses what may be potential for subscriber growth using the existing infrastructure. It would also be crucial to assess the potential for the sites to add dedicated PTP radios and be able to sell dedicated enterprise business connections. Many WISP’s are finding that as a tremendous growth market without having to do a large footprint expansion, and these customers are much higher revenue with less customer support requirements. It’s a different business model and sales mentality but for many WISP’s it’s a fairly easy overlay on their existing market area. If the WISP does not already have a coverage map created you should have one done so that you can see the true market potential and be able to calculate the homes passed. It is good to look at that potential compared to the competitive broadband providers and also look at where there may be overlap to your network. No sense paying for something you already can cover. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:34 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I am confused when he says they have 90% “take rate” yet there is another WISP competitor in the area. I assume there are also people with Hughesnet, Exede, mobile hotspots, and Luddites with no Internet. Perhaps he means something other than they have 90% of households in the coverage area as customers. I can understand with a $20 plan they could sweep up even the people who could almost use dialup. Still 90% market penetration in the face of competition seems amazing. I’m guessing 10% of households in my area don’t have any kind of fixed Internet, either because they don’t need no stinkin’ Internet, or because they just use the data plan on their smartphone. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:15 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? We see the asymptote converging on about 84% in our FTTH neighborhoods. From: Brian Webster Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 7:36 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? A couple of things that seem to always come up in these deals. One, what future revenue has already been taken by the current owners. What I mean by that are prepaid annual contracts, side deals on site rent in exchange for relay sites, stuff like that. Second, is the owners tend to want you to buy their potential. When you say 90% take rate you should dig in to those numbers. The highest adoption rate in America are only about 80% of households passed. Are they saying 90% take rate on leads that come in? How many homes does their network potentially cover vs. number of subscribers. How much competition is there for those homes. What equipment do they have deployed, signal levels and client distances? This will have a big effect on your ability to upsell bandwidth. If the clients are all marginal connections you will not have the ability to deliver much capacity off the sectors if you want to upsell or if customer want more bandwidth. This means upgrades at your own cost. Third, look very carefully at tower site leases or agreements. Are there any? Do they allow for a transfer of ownership and stay in effect? Are there balloon rent increases that would change your forecasts? Do they have renewal terms that are long enough for you to make your money on the purchase of their company? Large company or small being purchased the tower site agreements are one very important thing to dig deep on the details. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Mike Hammett Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 9:08 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
CAF is just a new mission for the same money, it is paid for with USF “contributions”. More like same beast, two different heads. https://www.fcc.gov/general/connect-america-fund-caf Similarly, the Wheeler FCC decided to expand Lifeline phone subsidies to also cover broadband (ignoring that $9 doesn’t buy much of a phone+data bundle). But it comes from the Universal Service (slush) Fund. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 12:16 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Yes CAF. CAF is not USF. Two totally different beasts. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:14 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? http://www.telecompetitor.com/massachusetts-joins-effort-urging-the-fcc-to-release-connect-america-funding-to-states/ From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:51 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Some states have a state USF and it is handled differently, sometimes with strings attached. I don’t think telcos turn down federal USF. Some do turn down CAF and some states want CAF. CAF is tax dollar based. And CAF is not related to divestiture. It is an invention of the Obama administration. CAF != USF by any stretch. And there is a push in all states to make ISPs fund the USF right along with cell phone carriers and everyone else. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:46 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? But now you see states (I think Massachusetts is the latest) want to receive the USF money their telcos have turned down. Why is there no sunset on this “fee”? I think USF “contributions” have doubled in recent years? Why not just let the percentage go back down, if the telcos don’t want the money. I think because of not calling it a tax, even though it walks and quacks like a tax. If it was called a tax, the public and all fiscal conservative legislators would be all over it, to have it reduced or eliminated. It’s like the March of Dimes, we need to reinvent ourselves, polio was eliminated, but we still have all these dimes coming in! Plus I take issue with your historical analysis, nothing about LD revenue and breaking up the Bell System justifies the repurposing of this money to the “Connect America Fund”. Let’s face it, POTS is a relic, and the concept of LD vs local calling is a relic. People are switching to cellphones and that isn’t going to change. All government programs need a sunset provision, where their original reason for existence has to be re-examined and justified anew. The real day of reckoning will come when the “contribution base” from interstate voice no longer funds CAF, and they want to make ISPs start contributing on their broadband revenue. You’re internet bill now has a new 17% fee! Will these unelected agencies be able to say nothing to see here, it’s just a fee, move along? Or will Congress have to authorize it? And if so, will they have to treat it as a tax and therefore the third rail especially with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican? In the White House? Not sure what DJT would think of it. Populists traditionally favor bread and circuses, and don’t worry as much about deficit spending as Republicans supposedly do. New taxes would still seem counterintuitive. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:18 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? No, it is a replacement for revenue previously obtained from AT on line-haul agreements. As a consideration for the divestiture and forcing AT to allow others to enter the long distance arena, the revenue previously shared with the smaller non AT companies was diverted to the National Exchange Carriers Association, NECA for distribution in a socialist manner. And everyone’s long distance bills went way way down. Then when the 96 act happened and CLECS were allowed to enter the local exchange market similar how the LD companies were allowed after divestiture, USAC was invented to move some of the local exchange tariff revenue into another pool to replace money that local exchange carriers would lose when CLECs stole their customers. So, LD revenue and local revenue were moved to pools to allow competition. NECA administers one pool of revenue, USAC the other. Neither is the government. And contributions are non compulsory on the customers however most pass the fees along, however some do not. NECA and USAC are simply two not for profit companies that have been designated by the FCC to distribute the dole. I re
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Yes CAF. CAF is not USF. Two totally different beasts. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:14 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? http://www.telecompetitor.com/massachusetts-joins-effort-urging-the-fcc-to-release-connect-america-funding-to-states/ From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:51 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Some states have a state USF and it is handled differently, sometimes with strings attached. I don’t think telcos turn down federal USF. Some do turn down CAF and some states want CAF. CAF is tax dollar based. And CAF is not related to divestiture. It is an invention of the Obama administration. CAF != USF by any stretch. And there is a push in all states to make ISPs fund the USF right along with cell phone carriers and everyone else. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:46 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? But now you see states (I think Massachusetts is the latest) want to receive the USF money their telcos have turned down. Why is there no sunset on this “fee”? I think USF “contributions” have doubled in recent years? Why not just let the percentage go back down, if the telcos don’t want the money. I think because of not calling it a tax, even though it walks and quacks like a tax. If it was called a tax, the public and all fiscal conservative legislators would be all over it, to have it reduced or eliminated. It’s like the March of Dimes, we need to reinvent ourselves, polio was eliminated, but we still have all these dimes coming in! Plus I take issue with your historical analysis, nothing about LD revenue and breaking up the Bell System justifies the repurposing of this money to the “Connect America Fund”. Let’s face it, POTS is a relic, and the concept of LD vs local calling is a relic. People are switching to cellphones and that isn’t going to change. All government programs need a sunset provision, where their original reason for existence has to be re-examined and justified anew. The real day of reckoning will come when the “contribution base” from interstate voice no longer funds CAF, and they want to make ISPs start contributing on their broadband revenue. You’re internet bill now has a new 17% fee! Will these unelected agencies be able to say nothing to see here, it’s just a fee, move along? Or will Congress have to authorize it? And if so, will they have to treat it as a tax and therefore the third rail especially with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican? In the White House? Not sure what DJT would think of it. Populists traditionally favor bread and circuses, and don’t worry as much about deficit spending as Republicans supposedly do. New taxes would still seem counterintuitive. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:18 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? No, it is a replacement for revenue previously obtained from AT on line-haul agreements. As a consideration for the divestiture and forcing AT to allow others to enter the long distance arena, the revenue previously shared with the smaller non AT companies was diverted to the National Exchange Carriers Association, NECA for distribution in a socialist manner. And everyone’s long distance bills went way way down. Then when the 96 act happened and CLECS were allowed to enter the local exchange market similar how the LD companies were allowed after divestiture, USAC was invented to move some of the local exchange tariff revenue into another pool to replace money that local exchange carriers would lose when CLECs stole their customers. So, LD revenue and local revenue were moved to pools to allow competition. NECA administers one pool of revenue, USAC the other. Neither is the government. And contributions are non compulsory on the customers however most pass the fees along, however some do not. NECA and USAC are simply two not for profit companies that have been designated by the FCC to distribute the dole. I remember when a phone call to the next town over , 13 miles away, was 15 cents per minute during the day. Anyone want to go back to that? You do not have to use a phone. You do not have to water ski at Lake Powell, so the National Park Service fee to enter the area is a fee, not a tax. From: Travis Johnson Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:06 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
http://www.telecompetitor.com/massachusetts-joins-effort-urging-the-fcc-to-release-connect-america-funding-to-states/ From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:51 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Some states have a state USF and it is handled differently, sometimes with strings attached. I don’t think telcos turn down federal USF. Some do turn down CAF and some states want CAF. CAF is tax dollar based. And CAF is not related to divestiture. It is an invention of the Obama administration. CAF != USF by any stretch. And there is a push in all states to make ISPs fund the USF right along with cell phone carriers and everyone else. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:46 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? But now you see states (I think Massachusetts is the latest) want to receive the USF money their telcos have turned down. Why is there no sunset on this “fee”? I think USF “contributions” have doubled in recent years? Why not just let the percentage go back down, if the telcos don’t want the money. I think because of not calling it a tax, even though it walks and quacks like a tax. If it was called a tax, the public and all fiscal conservative legislators would be all over it, to have it reduced or eliminated. It’s like the March of Dimes, we need to reinvent ourselves, polio was eliminated, but we still have all these dimes coming in! Plus I take issue with your historical analysis, nothing about LD revenue and breaking up the Bell System justifies the repurposing of this money to the “Connect America Fund”. Let’s face it, POTS is a relic, and the concept of LD vs local calling is a relic. People are switching to cellphones and that isn’t going to change. All government programs need a sunset provision, where their original reason for existence has to be re-examined and justified anew. The real day of reckoning will come when the “contribution base” from interstate voice no longer funds CAF, and they want to make ISPs start contributing on their broadband revenue. You’re internet bill now has a new 17% fee! Will these unelected agencies be able to say nothing to see here, it’s just a fee, move along? Or will Congress have to authorize it? And if so, will they have to treat it as a tax and therefore the third rail especially with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican? In the White House? Not sure what DJT would think of it. Populists traditionally favor bread and circuses, and don’t worry as much about deficit spending as Republicans supposedly do. New taxes would still seem counterintuitive. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:18 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? No, it is a replacement for revenue previously obtained from AT on line-haul agreements. As a consideration for the divestiture and forcing AT to allow others to enter the long distance arena, the revenue previously shared with the smaller non AT companies was diverted to the National Exchange Carriers Association, NECA for distribution in a socialist manner. And everyone’s long distance bills went way way down. Then when the 96 act happened and CLECS were allowed to enter the local exchange market similar how the LD companies were allowed after divestiture, USAC was invented to move some of the local exchange tariff revenue into another pool to replace money that local exchange carriers would lose when CLECs stole their customers. So, LD revenue and local revenue were moved to pools to allow competition. NECA administers one pool of revenue, USAC the other. Neither is the government. And contributions are non compulsory on the customers however most pass the fees along, however some do not. NECA and USAC are simply two not for profit companies that have been designated by the FCC to distribute the dole. I remember when a phone call to the next town over , 13 miles away, was 15 cents per minute during the day. Anyone want to go back to that? You do not have to use a phone. You do not have to water ski at Lake Powell, so the National Park Service fee to enter the area is a fee, not a tax. From: Travis Johnson Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:06 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these a
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Some states have a state USF and it is handled differently, sometimes with strings attached. I don’t think telcos turn down federal USF. Some do turn down CAF and some states want CAF. CAF is tax dollar based. And CAF is not related to divestiture. It is an invention of the Obama administration. CAF != USF by any stretch. And there is a push in all states to make ISPs fund the USF right along with cell phone carriers and everyone else. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:46 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? But now you see states (I think Massachusetts is the latest) want to receive the USF money their telcos have turned down. Why is there no sunset on this “fee”? I think USF “contributions” have doubled in recent years? Why not just let the percentage go back down, if the telcos don’t want the money. I think because of not calling it a tax, even though it walks and quacks like a tax. If it was called a tax, the public and all fiscal conservative legislators would be all over it, to have it reduced or eliminated. It’s like the March of Dimes, we need to reinvent ourselves, polio was eliminated, but we still have all these dimes coming in! Plus I take issue with your historical analysis, nothing about LD revenue and breaking up the Bell System justifies the repurposing of this money to the “Connect America Fund”. Let’s face it, POTS is a relic, and the concept of LD vs local calling is a relic. People are switching to cellphones and that isn’t going to change. All government programs need a sunset provision, where their original reason for existence has to be re-examined and justified anew. The real day of reckoning will come when the “contribution base” from interstate voice no longer funds CAF, and they want to make ISPs start contributing on their broadband revenue. You’re internet bill now has a new 17% fee! Will these unelected agencies be able to say nothing to see here, it’s just a fee, move along? Or will Congress have to authorize it? And if so, will they have to treat it as a tax and therefore the third rail especially with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican? In the White House? Not sure what DJT would think of it. Populists traditionally favor bread and circuses, and don’t worry as much about deficit spending as Republicans supposedly do. New taxes would still seem counterintuitive. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:18 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? No, it is a replacement for revenue previously obtained from AT on line-haul agreements. As a consideration for the divestiture and forcing AT to allow others to enter the long distance arena, the revenue previously shared with the smaller non AT companies was diverted to the National Exchange Carriers Association, NECA for distribution in a socialist manner. And everyone’s long distance bills went way way down. Then when the 96 act happened and CLECS were allowed to enter the local exchange market similar how the LD companies were allowed after divestiture, USAC was invented to move some of the local exchange tariff revenue into another pool to replace money that local exchange carriers would lose when CLECs stole their customers. So, LD revenue and local revenue were moved to pools to allow competition. NECA administers one pool of revenue, USAC the other. Neither is the government. And contributions are non compulsory on the customers however most pass the fees along, however some do not. NECA and USAC are simply two not for profit companies that have been designated by the FCC to distribute the dole. I remember when a phone call to the next town over , 13 miles away, was 15 cents per minute during the day. Anyone want to go back to that? You do not have to use a phone. You do not have to water ski at Lake Powell, so the National Park Service fee to enter the area is a fee, not a tax. From: Travis Johnson Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:06 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these are fees that I can NOT remove from my phone bill, so basically it's a tax... it's just a telephone tax rather than income or sales tax. Right? Travis On 1/12/2017 9:59 AM, Chuck McCown wrote: Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overear
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
But now you see states (I think Massachusetts is the latest) want to receive the USF money their telcos have turned down. Why is there no sunset on this “fee”? I think USF “contributions” have doubled in recent years? Why not just let the percentage go back down, if the telcos don’t want the money. I think because of not calling it a tax, even though it walks and quacks like a tax. If it was called a tax, the public and all fiscal conservative legislators would be all over it, to have it reduced or eliminated. It’s like the March of Dimes, we need to reinvent ourselves, polio was eliminated, but we still have all these dimes coming in! Plus I take issue with your historical analysis, nothing about LD revenue and breaking up the Bell System justifies the repurposing of this money to the “Connect America Fund”. Let’s face it, POTS is a relic, and the concept of LD vs local calling is a relic. People are switching to cellphones and that isn’t going to change. All government programs need a sunset provision, where their original reason for existence has to be re-examined and justified anew. The real day of reckoning will come when the “contribution base” from interstate voice no longer funds CAF, and they want to make ISPs start contributing on their broadband revenue. You’re internet bill now has a new 17% fee! Will these unelected agencies be able to say nothing to see here, it’s just a fee, move along? Or will Congress have to authorize it? And if so, will they have to treat it as a tax and therefore the third rail especially with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and a Republican? In the White House? Not sure what DJT would think of it. Populists traditionally favor bread and circuses, and don’t worry as much about deficit spending as Republicans supposedly do. New taxes would still seem counterintuitive. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:18 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? No, it is a replacement for revenue previously obtained from AT on line-haul agreements. As a consideration for the divestiture and forcing AT to allow others to enter the long distance arena, the revenue previously shared with the smaller non AT companies was diverted to the National Exchange Carriers Association, NECA for distribution in a socialist manner. And everyone’s long distance bills went way way down. Then when the 96 act happened and CLECS were allowed to enter the local exchange market similar how the LD companies were allowed after divestiture, USAC was invented to move some of the local exchange tariff revenue into another pool to replace money that local exchange carriers would lose when CLECs stole their customers. So, LD revenue and local revenue were moved to pools to allow competition. NECA administers one pool of revenue, USAC the other. Neither is the government. And contributions are non compulsory on the customers however most pass the fees along, however some do not. NECA and USAC are simply two not for profit companies that have been designated by the FCC to distribute the dole. I remember when a phone call to the next town over , 13 miles away, was 15 cents per minute during the day. Anyone want to go back to that? You do not have to use a phone. You do not have to water ski at Lake Powell, so the National Park Service fee to enter the area is a fee, not a tax. From: Travis Johnson Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:06 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these are fees that I can NOT remove from my phone bill, so basically it's a tax... it's just a telephone tax rather than income or sales tax. Right? Travis On 1/12/2017 9:59 AM, Chuck McCown wrote: Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overearn, your welfare check gets cut, but in any case the guaranteed rate of return used to be 11.25%. And that is an ROI after cost recovery of legit expenses. That is an EBITDA ROR. Hard to pass up a deal like that. But the FCC is deflating that whole program. They pushed a whole bunch of these rural companies into a lucrative A-CAM deal that pays them a fixed amount for the next 10 years with the expectation of nothing after that. For the “buy out” they have to agree to upgrade to 25 Mbps service. They did cap executive pay for a while then r
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
No, it is a replacement for revenue previously obtained from AT on line-haul agreements. As a consideration for the divestiture and forcing AT to allow others to enter the long distance arena, the revenue previously shared with the smaller non AT companies was diverted to the National Exchange Carriers Association, NECA for distribution in a socialist manner. And everyone’s long distance bills went way way down. Then when the 96 act happened and CLECS were allowed to enter the local exchange market similar how the LD companies were allowed after divestiture, USAC was invented to move some of the local exchange tariff revenue into another pool to replace money that local exchange carriers would lose when CLECs stole their customers. So, LD revenue and local revenue were moved to pools to allow competition. NECA administers one pool of revenue, USAC the other. Neither is the government. And contributions are non compulsory on the customers however most pass the fees along, however some do not. NECA and USAC are simply two not for profit companies that have been designated by the FCC to distribute the dole. I remember when a phone call to the next town over , 13 miles away, was 15 cents per minute during the day. Anyone want to go back to that? You do not have to use a phone. You do not have to water ski at Lake Powell, so the National Park Service fee to enter the area is a fee, not a tax. From: Travis Johnson Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:06 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these are fees that I can NOT remove from my phone bill, so basically it's a tax... it's just a telephone tax rather than income or sales tax. Right? Travis On 1/12/2017 9:59 AM, Chuck McCown wrote: Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overearn, your welfare check gets cut, but in any case the guaranteed rate of return used to be 11.25%. And that is an ROI after cost recovery of legit expenses. That is an EBITDA ROR. Hard to pass up a deal like that. But the FCC is deflating that whole program. They pushed a whole bunch of these rural companies into a lucrative A-CAM deal that pays them a fixed amount for the next 10 years with the expectation of nothing after that. For the “buy out” they have to agree to upgrade to 25 Mbps service. They did cap executive pay for a while then repealed it, I think it is back on. And for the non A-CAM companies (it was an elective program) they are capping investment. But still, it is around $10K per dwelling. That may seem high, but I have personally had BLM permitting expenses equal $40K per dwelling alone with total cost of construction hitting $200K per dwelling. The magic of revenue pooling, no tax dollars are harmed in this scheme... From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:51 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Chuck, here’s a question for you. I seem to remember checking how much Frontier paid for customers Verizon and AT didn’t want, and I think it was around the same $2000/sub number that cable companies are typically priced at. Or maybe it was $1000 and I rationalized it in my mind as half of a cable customer because no TV. Either way, it was a lot of money for unwanted customers and decrepit infrastructure. Why such a high value? Why not $1? Are they factoring in an expected stream of USF/CAF subsidies as part of the value of buying a customer? Or are they just being stupid? I assume executive pay goes up the bigger the company grows, so maybe perverse incentives. Look at the marvelous Hindenburg we have built, it’s HUGE! From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Hi, Not to be picky about terminology, but by definition a "tax" is "a compulsory contribution to state revenue, levied by the government on workers' income and business profits or added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions." Isn't this money collected as USF and other "fees" on telephone bills? And these are fees that I can NOT remove from my phone bill, so basically it's a tax... it's just a telephone tax rather than income or sales tax. Right? Travis On 1/12/2017 9:59 AM, Chuck McCown wrote: Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overearn, your welfare check gets cut, but in any case the guaranteed rate of return used to be 11.25%. And that is an ROI after cost recovery of legit expenses. That is an EBITDA ROR. Hard to pass up a deal like that. But the FCC is deflating that whole program. They pushed a whole bunch of these rural companies into a lucrative A-CAM deal that pays them a fixed amount for the next 10 years with the expectation of nothing after that. For the “buy out” they have to agree to upgrade to 25 Mbps service. They did cap executive pay for a while then repealed it, I think it is back on. And for the non A-CAM companies (it was an elective program) they are capping investment. But still, it is around $10K per dwelling. That may seem high, but I have personally had BLM permitting expenses equal $40K per dwelling alone with total cost of construction hitting $200K per dwelling. The magic of revenue pooling, no tax dollars are harmed in this scheme... *From:* Ken Hohhof *Sent:* Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:51 AM *To:* af@afmug.com *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Chuck, here’s a question for you. I seem to remember checking how much Frontier paid for customers Verizon and AT didn’t want, and I think it was around the same $2000/sub number that cable companies are typically priced at. Or maybe it was $1000 and I rationalized it in my mind as half of a cable customer because no TV. Either way, it was a lot of money for unwanted customers and decrepit infrastructure. Why such a high value? Why not $1? Are they factoring in an expected stream of USF/CAF subsidies as part of the value of buying a customer? Or are they just being stupid? I assume executive pay goes up the bigger the company grows, so maybe perverse incentives. Look at the marvelous Hindenburg we have built, it’s HUGE! *From:*Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Chuck McCown *Sent:* Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:39 AM *To:* af@afmug.com *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the way to go. *From:*Ken Hohhof *Sent:*Thursday, January 12, 2017 8:39 AM *To:*af@afmug.com *Subject:*Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes went back up, I heard a tutorial on how to groom your business for sale before the deadline. Basically you stop focusing on increasing revenue, and instead cut costs, it will immediately improve your EBITDA and therefore your valuation. I think we’ve all experienced this when something causes us to temporarily cut back expenses, for me it happens every winter. All of a sudden your business becomes a cash cow and looks amazingly profitable. I also see this when I look at certain competitors who don’t have up to date equipment, don’t maintain their network, don’t have battery backup at tower sites, and all their customers hat
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Depending on the area, FCC study area, parent trap rules etc, a rural sub can earn up to about $200/month even if they don’t pay their bill or use any services. It used to be more. If you overearn, your welfare check gets cut, but in any case the guaranteed rate of return used to be 11.25%. And that is an ROI after cost recovery of legit expenses. That is an EBITDA ROR. Hard to pass up a deal like that. But the FCC is deflating that whole program. They pushed a whole bunch of these rural companies into a lucrative A-CAM deal that pays them a fixed amount for the next 10 years with the expectation of nothing after that. For the “buy out” they have to agree to upgrade to 25 Mbps service. They did cap executive pay for a while then repealed it, I think it is back on. And for the non A-CAM companies (it was an elective program) they are capping investment. But still, it is around $10K per dwelling. That may seem high, but I have personally had BLM permitting expenses equal $40K per dwelling alone with total cost of construction hitting $200K per dwelling. The magic of revenue pooling, no tax dollars are harmed in this scheme... From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:51 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Chuck, here’s a question for you. I seem to remember checking how much Frontier paid for customers Verizon and AT didn’t want, and I think it was around the same $2000/sub number that cable companies are typically priced at. Or maybe it was $1000 and I rationalized it in my mind as half of a cable customer because no TV. Either way, it was a lot of money for unwanted customers and decrepit infrastructure. Why such a high value? Why not $1? Are they factoring in an expected stream of USF/CAF subsidies as part of the value of buying a customer? Or are they just being stupid? I assume executive pay goes up the bigger the company grows, so maybe perverse incentives. Look at the marvelous Hindenburg we have built, it’s HUGE! From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the way to go. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 8:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes went back up, I heard a tutorial on how to groom your business for sale before the deadline. Basically you stop focusing on increasing revenue, and instead cut costs, it will immediately improve your EBITDA and therefore your valuation. I think we’ve all experienced this when something causes us to temporarily cut back expenses, for me it happens every winter. All of a sudden your business becomes a cash cow and looks amazingly profitable. I also see this when I look at certain competitors who don’t have up to date equipment, don’t maintain their network, don’t have battery backup at tower sites, and all their customers hate them for their slow service, frequent outages, and poor customer service. You ask yourself, how can they stay in business? Ask yourself, if you cut way back on expenses, and as a result lost 25% of your customers every year, would your business be more or less profitable? It might be more profitable. Long term, you have to believe these WISPs will eventually go out of business, but year after year they survive. And maybe someone will buy them because they are profitable on paper. But they end up acquiring bad
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Chuck, here’s a question for you. I seem to remember checking how much Frontier paid for customers Verizon and AT didn’t want, and I think it was around the same $2000/sub number that cable companies are typically priced at. Or maybe it was $1000 and I rationalized it in my mind as half of a cable customer because no TV. Either way, it was a lot of money for unwanted customers and decrepit infrastructure. Why such a high value? Why not $1? Are they factoring in an expected stream of USF/CAF subsidies as part of the value of buying a customer? Or are they just being stupid? I assume executive pay goes up the bigger the company grows, so maybe perverse incentives. Look at the marvelous Hindenburg we have built, it’s HUGE! From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the way to go. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 8:39 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes went back up, I heard a tutorial on how to groom your business for sale before the deadline. Basically you stop focusing on increasing revenue, and instead cut costs, it will immediately improve your EBITDA and therefore your valuation. I think we’ve all experienced this when something causes us to temporarily cut back expenses, for me it happens every winter. All of a sudden your business becomes a cash cow and looks amazingly profitable. I also see this when I look at certain competitors who don’t have up to date equipment, don’t maintain their network, don’t have battery backup at tower sites, and all their customers hate them for their slow service, frequent outages, and poor customer service. You ask yourself, how can they stay in business? Ask yourself, if you cut way back on expenses, and as a result lost 25% of your customers every year, would your business be more or less profitable? It might be more profitable. Long term, you have to believe these WISPs will eventually go out of business, but year after year they survive. And maybe someone will buy them because they are profitable on paper. But they end up acquiring bad infrastructure and dissatisfied customers. Not saying to ignore EBITDA, but I think many worthwhile WISPs that are still in startup mode will have zero EBITDA. While if they have spent 6-12 months fluffing up the numbers to maximize their valuation for a sale, those better numbers may be deceptive. One final note, when I worked at Tellabs (around 1990), I remember the founder saying you want to make a small profit. Any more just means you pay more taxes, and some raider can buy you with your own cash. Better to reinvest that money in the business. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of CBB - Jay Fuller Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:03 AM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? i hear that and 4x ebidta over and over. in terms of they don't know what ebitda does i don't even ask for those numbers. after initial conversations i always ask for a years worth of bank statements. i've been known to go back three years. i can plug that data into quickbooks in a day and then pull pretty much whatever financial data i need to pull. and it does not offend the company you are trying to purchase who is almost guaranteed to now know that ebitda is (earn
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Even if EBITDA is zero year over year, you can look at growth of equity. If the assets are truly worth what they are booked at, then buy for that value. I prefer net present value of future cash flows to be a part of the analysis. But for something that has been a going concern for some time, with little debt and equity close to net asset value, multiples of EBITDA are a comfortable way to value the thing. However, in a WISP situation where you are buying the customer and some amount of SM and AP that may or may not have much value to you, net present value may be the way to go. From: Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 8:39 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes went back up, I heard a tutorial on how to groom your business for sale before the deadline. Basically you stop focusing on increasing revenue, and instead cut costs, it will immediately improve your EBITDA and therefore your valuation. I think we’ve all experienced this when something causes us to temporarily cut back expenses, for me it happens every winter. All of a sudden your business becomes a cash cow and looks amazingly profitable. I also see this when I look at certain competitors who don’t have up to date equipment, don’t maintain their network, don’t have battery backup at tower sites, and all their customers hate them for their slow service, frequent outages, and poor customer service. You ask yourself, how can they stay in business? Ask yourself, if you cut way back on expenses, and as a result lost 25% of your customers every year, would your business be more or less profitable? It might be more profitable. Long term, you have to believe these WISPs will eventually go out of business, but year after year they survive. And maybe someone will buy them because they are profitable on paper. But they end up acquiring bad infrastructure and dissatisfied customers. Not saying to ignore EBITDA, but I think many worthwhile WISPs that are still in startup mode will have zero EBITDA. While if they have spent 6-12 months fluffing up the numbers to maximize their valuation for a sale, those better numbers may be deceptive. One final note, when I worked at Tellabs (around 1990), I remember the founder saying you want to make a small profit. Any more just means you pay more taxes, and some raider can buy you with your own cash. Better to reinvest that money in the business. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of CBB - Jay Fuller Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:03 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? i hear that and 4x ebidta over and over. in terms of they don't know what ebitda does i don't even ask for those numbers. after initial conversations i always ask for a years worth of bank statements. i've been known to go back three years. i can plug that data into quickbooks in a day and then pull pretty much whatever financial data i need to pull. and it does not offend the company you are trying to purchase who is almost guaranteed to now know that ebitda is (earnimngs before interest tax and depreciation) - Original Message - From: Mike Hammett To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:07 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I am confused when he says they have 90% “take rate” yet there is another WISP competitor in the area. I assume there are also people with Hughesnet, Exede, mobile hotspots, and Luddites with no Internet. Perhaps he means something other than they have 90% of households in the coverage area as customers. I can understand with a $20 plan they could sweep up even the people who could almost use dialup. Still 90% market penetration in the face of competition seems amazing. I’m guessing 10% of households in my area don’t have any kind of fixed Internet, either because they don’t need no stinkin’ Internet, or because they just use the data plan on their smartphone. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:15 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? We see the asymptote converging on about 84% in our FTTH neighborhoods. From: Brian Webster Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 7:36 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? A couple of things that seem to always come up in these deals. One, what future revenue has already been taken by the current owners. What I mean by that are prepaid annual contracts, side deals on site rent in exchange for relay sites, stuff like that. Second, is the owners tend to want you to buy their potential. When you say 90% take rate you should dig in to those numbers. The highest adoption rate in America are only about 80% of households passed. Are they saying 90% take rate on leads that come in? How many homes does their network potentially cover vs. number of subscribers. How much competition is there for those homes. What equipment do they have deployed, signal levels and client distances? This will have a big effect on your ability to upsell bandwidth. If the clients are all marginal connections you will not have the ability to deliver much capacity off the sectors if you want to upsell or if customer want more bandwidth. This means upgrades at your own cost. Third, look very carefully at tower site leases or agreements. Are there any? Do they allow for a transfer of ownership and stay in effect? Are there balloon rent increases that would change your forecasts? Do they have renewal terms that are long enough for you to make your money on the purchase of their company? Large company or small being purchased the tower site agreements are one very important thing to dig deep on the details. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com <http://www.wirelessmapping.com> www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Mike Hammett Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 9:08 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett <http://www.ics-il.com/> Intelligent Computing Solutions <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL> <http://www.midwest-ix.com/> Midwest Internet Exchange <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix> <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/> The Brothers WISP <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg> _ From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
We see the asymptote converging on about 84% in our FTTH neighborhoods. From: Brian Webster Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 7:36 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? A couple of things that seem to always come up in these deals. One, what future revenue has already been taken by the current owners. What I mean by that are prepaid annual contracts, side deals on site rent in exchange for relay sites, stuff like that. Second, is the owners tend to want you to buy their potential. When you say 90% take rate you should dig in to those numbers. The highest adoption rate in America are only about 80% of households passed. Are they saying 90% take rate on leads that come in? How many homes does their network potentially cover vs. number of subscribers. How much competition is there for those homes. What equipment do they have deployed, signal levels and client distances? This will have a big effect on your ability to upsell bandwidth. If the clients are all marginal connections you will not have the ability to deliver much capacity off the sectors if you want to upsell or if customer want more bandwidth. This means upgrades at your own cost. Third, look very carefully at tower site leases or agreements. Are there any? Do they allow for a transfer of ownership and stay in effect? Are there balloon rent increases that would change your forecasts? Do they have renewal terms that are long enough for you to make your money on the purchase of their company? Large company or small being purchased the tower site agreements are one very important thing to dig deep on the details. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Mike Hammett Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 9:08 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I think there is some validity in getting the revenue and expense numbers separately and doing your own analysis. If you just ask for their net income, that will vary greatly based on how the current owners are managing the business, I think there are 3 types: 1) Being run as a startup 2) Being run as a big company / cash cow 3) Being groomed for sale A 190 sub WISP is probably being run as a startup. First, that means managing cashflow not profit. Second, that means any time you have an extra dime, you spend it on expanding the business. If those are capital expenditures, maybe they go into depreciation and get excluded from EBITDA. But if they go into advertising, subscriber radios, install materials and labor, etc., that gets expensed and makes the business look less profitable. Whatever year it was that capital gains taxes went back up, I heard a tutorial on how to groom your business for sale before the deadline. Basically you stop focusing on increasing revenue, and instead cut costs, it will immediately improve your EBITDA and therefore your valuation. I think we’ve all experienced this when something causes us to temporarily cut back expenses, for me it happens every winter. All of a sudden your business becomes a cash cow and looks amazingly profitable. I also see this when I look at certain competitors who don’t have up to date equipment, don’t maintain their network, don’t have battery backup at tower sites, and all their customers hate them for their slow service, frequent outages, and poor customer service. You ask yourself, how can they stay in business? Ask yourself, if you cut way back on expenses, and as a result lost 25% of your customers every year, would your business be more or less profitable? It might be more profitable. Long term, you have to believe these WISPs will eventually go out of business, but year after year they survive. And maybe someone will buy them because they are profitable on paper. But they end up acquiring bad infrastructure and dissatisfied customers. Not saying to ignore EBITDA, but I think many worthwhile WISPs that are still in startup mode will have zero EBITDA. While if they have spent 6-12 months fluffing up the numbers to maximize their valuation for a sale, those better numbers may be deceptive. One final note, when I worked at Tellabs (around 1990), I remember the founder saying you want to make a small profit. Any more just means you pay more taxes, and some raider can buy you with your own cash. Better to reinvest that money in the business. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of CBB - Jay Fuller Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:03 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? i hear that and 4x ebidta over and over. in terms of they don't know what ebitda does i don't even ask for those numbers. after initial conversations i always ask for a years worth of bank statements. i've been known to go back three years. i can plug that data into quickbooks in a day and then pull pretty much whatever financial data i need to pull. and it does not offend the company you are trying to purchase who is almost guaranteed to now know that ebitda is (earnimngs before interest tax and depreciation) - Original Message - From: Mike Hammett <mailto:af...@ics-il.net> To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:07 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett <http://www.ics-il.com/> Intelligent Computing Solutions <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL> <http://www.midwest-ix.com/> Midwest Internet Exchange <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix> <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/> The Brothers WISP <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg> _ From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do c
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
yes. i so agree. - Original Message - From: Brett A Mansfield To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:40 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? It would be a lot cheaper to just take their customers. But it would be a lot more work and take more time. Also, that's kind of a jerk move I think. Besides, I really want the tower they own as part of it. Then I can possibly kick off their only competitor that pays to use it and then have 100% of the subs. Their 40' tower is the only one on this mountain and would be a great asset to my company and goals. And kicking off the other guys would free up the entire 11Ghz spectrum in this valley making me be able to setup whatever links I need unhindered. Thank you all for your suggestions. I think I've figured out what to do next. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield On Jan 11, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Lewis Bergman <lewis.berg...@gmail.com> wrote: I don't know if I would buy someone who couldn't figure EBITDA. How could you trust their books? Maybe if it was enough discount. On the other hand, if you know all the cost involved you don't really need EBITDA to evaluate a business. So many times it is cheaper and just as fast to just take the customers. For a network that small it wouldn't take much. On Wed, Jan 11, 2017, 8:07 PM Mike Hammett <af...@ics-il.net> wrote: I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP -- From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
on average we negotiate back and forth about six different bids. the current company we're working with we agreed after three bids. - Original Message - From: Mike Hammett To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:29 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I look at it as a leading price. If interested, both sides dig in to firm up their positions. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP -- From: "Lewis Bergman" <lewis.berg...@gmail.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:25:17 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I don't know if I would buy someone who couldn't figure EBITDA. How could you trust their books? Maybe if it was enough discount. On the other hand, if you know all the cost involved you don't really need EBITDA to evaluate a business. So many times it is cheaper and just as fast to just take the customers. For a network that small it wouldn't take much. On Wed, Jan 11, 2017, 8:07 PM Mike Hammett <af...@ics-il.net> wrote: I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
my biggest problem on the company we are in process with now is i had a hard time locating and discounting the external investments into the company. they were regular deposits and mixed in with the customer payments. i basically isolated any payment over $1000 and did not include it as a normal income payment. there were months where external investers were infusing 10 and 15 thousand dollars. lets just say telrad was involved (and is not cheap!) - Original Message - From: Lewis Bergman To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:25 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I don't know if I would buy someone who couldn't figure EBITDA. How could you trust their books? Maybe if it was enough discount. On the other hand, if you know all the cost involved you don't really need EBITDA to evaluate a business. So many times it is cheaper and just as fast to just take the customers. For a network that small it wouldn't take much. On Wed, Jan 11, 2017, 8:07 PM Mike Hammett <af...@ics-il.net> wrote: I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
i hear that and 4x ebidta over and over. in terms of they don't know what ebitda does i don't even ask for those numbers. after initial conversations i always ask for a years worth of bank statements. i've been known to go back three years. i can plug that data into quickbooks in a day and then pull pretty much whatever financial data i need to pull. and it does not offend the company you are trying to purchase who is almost guaranteed to now know that ebitda is (earnimngs before interest tax and depreciation) - Original Message - From: Mike Hammett To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:07 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP -- From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I hear this argument often but don't agree with it. I guess it depends on if they are "on top" of you or not - we used to be the only game in this part of Alabama but over the years a few other guys have come to bat. Some we've helped get started. Some we've worked with or they used to work for us. Recently we came across a company we weren't even aware of when we had two towers that could see each other. We have acquired two companies and are in the process of acquiring a third. We are not in the area they operate in and we don't know the local people there like they do. They have networked for years and seem to know all the right strings to pull. They've already created a network and installed the first x number of customers. If they're burnt out and ready to quit or have run out of money that is even better - we can pick it up for pennies on the dollar. We have proposed to pay less than half for this company than we did the last one - and by all comparisons they're roughly the same size as the last one. They just got behind on their bills and will "turn to dust" within 30 days if we don't build a bandwidth connection over to them. Because of that we did not offer 0, but we didn't offer what we offered the last company either because they were still in good enough shape to continue operations - Original Message - From: Travis Johnson To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 5:40 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I always looked at these type of things as "How much could I spend in advertising and giving away free months of service in that area to pick up a majority of the customers anyway?" :) If they are at $20/month, you could give customers 6 months free to switch to you, and you gain a customer for $120. People love to switch when they can get service for free. Travis On 1/11/2017 2:39 PM, Brett A Mansfield wrote: There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
No, they can and probably will just sit on the channels until you can prove to the FCC that they are abandoned. I've never been through that process, but I imagine it doesn't happen very fast. On 1/11/2017 8:40 PM, Brett A Mansfield wrote: And kicking off the other guys would free up the entire 11Ghz spectrum in this valley making me be able to setup whatever links I need unhindered.
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
It would be a lot cheaper to just take their customers. But it would be a lot more work and take more time. Also, that's kind of a jerk move I think. Besides, I really want the tower they own as part of it. Then I can possibly kick off their only competitor that pays to use it and then have 100% of the subs. Their 40' tower is the only one on this mountain and would be a great asset to my company and goals. And kicking off the other guys would free up the entire 11Ghz spectrum in this valley making me be able to setup whatever links I need unhindered. Thank you all for your suggestions. I think I've figured out what to do next. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield > On Jan 11, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Lewis Bergman <lewis.berg...@gmail.com> wrote: > > I don't know if I would buy someone who couldn't figure EBITDA. How could you > trust their books? Maybe if it was enough discount. On the other hand, if > you know all the cost involved you don't really need EBITDA to evaluate a > business. > So many times it is cheaper and just as fast to just take the customers. For > a network that small it wouldn't take much. > >> On Wed, Jan 11, 2017, 8:07 PM Mike Hammett <af...@ics-il.net> wrote: >> I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier >> to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat >> easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. >> >> >> >> - >> Mike Hammett >> Intelligent Computing Solutions >> >> Midwest Internet Exchange >> >> The Brothers WISP >> >> >> >> >> From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> >> To: af@afmug.com >> Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM >> >> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? >> >> 4x ebitda >> >> From: Josh Reynolds >> Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM >> To: af@afmug.com >> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? >> How many subs? >> >> On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> >> wrote: >> When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought >> is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam >> hardware. >> >> I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is >> fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their >> plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. >> >> Thank you, >> Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
A couple of things that seem to always come up in these deals. One, what future revenue has already been taken by the current owners. What I mean by that are prepaid annual contracts, side deals on site rent in exchange for relay sites, stuff like that. Second, is the owners tend to want you to buy their potential. When you say 90% take rate you should dig in to those numbers. The highest adoption rate in America are only about 80% of households passed. Are they saying 90% take rate on leads that come in? How many homes does their network potentially cover vs. number of subscribers. How much competition is there for those homes. What equipment do they have deployed, signal levels and client distances? This will have a big effect on your ability to upsell bandwidth. If the clients are all marginal connections you will not have the ability to deliver much capacity off the sectors if you want to upsell or if customer want more bandwidth. This means upgrades at your own cost. Third, look very carefully at tower site leases or agreements. Are there any? Do they allow for a transfer of ownership and stay in effect? Are there balloon rent increases that would change your forecasts? Do they have renewal terms that are long enough for you to make your money on the purchase of their company? Large company or small being purchased the tower site agreements are one very important thing to dig deep on the details. Thank You, Brian Webster www.wirelessmapping.com www.Broadband-Mapping.com From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Mike Hammett Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 9:08 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett <http://www.ics-il.com/> Intelligent Computing Solutions <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL> <http://www.midwest-ix.com/> Midwest Internet Exchange <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix> <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/> The Brothers WISP <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg> _ From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I look at it as a leading price. If interested, both sides dig in to firm up their positions. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP - Original Message - From: "Lewis Bergman" <lewis.berg...@gmail.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 8:25:17 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I don't know if I would buy someone who couldn't figure EBITDA. How could you trust their books? Maybe if it was enough discount. On the other hand, if you know all the cost involved you don't really need EBITDA to evaluate a business. So many times it is cheaper and just as fast to just take the customers. For a network that small it wouldn't take much. On Wed, Jan 11, 2017, 8:07 PM Mike Hammett < af...@ics-il.net > wrote: I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP From: "Chuck McCown" < ch...@wbmfg.com > To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" < li...@silverlakeinternet.com > wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I don't know if I would buy someone who couldn't figure EBITDA. How could you trust their books? Maybe if it was enough discount. On the other hand, if you know all the cost involved you don't really need EBITDA to evaluate a business. So many times it is cheaper and just as fast to just take the customers. For a network that small it wouldn't take much. On Wed, Jan 11, 2017, 8:07 PM Mike Hammett <af...@ics-il.net> wrote: > I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot > easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is > somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. > > > > - > Mike Hammett > Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/> > <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL> > <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb> > <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions> > <https://twitter.com/ICSIL> > Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/> > <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix> > <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange> > <https://twitter.com/mdwestix> > The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/> > <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp> > > > <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg> > ------ > *From: *"Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> > *To: *af@afmug.com > *Sent: *Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM > > *Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? > > 4x ebitda > > *From:* Josh Reynolds > *Sent:* Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM > *To:* af@afmug.com > *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? > How many subs? > > On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> > wrote: > > When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought > is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam > hardware. > > I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is > fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their > plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. > > Thank you, > Brett A Mansfield > >
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I hear that is around 12x - 18x months of revenue and a heck of a lot easier to calculate when ballparking. They know their revenue (or well, is somewhat easy to figure out). They probably can't spell EBITDA. - Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions Midwest Internet Exchange The Brothers WISP - Original Message - From: "Chuck McCown" <ch...@wbmfg.com> To: af@afmug.com Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" < li...@silverlakeinternet.com > wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Especially for a wisp that small, I would think 4x EBITDA is more than reasonable . Chasing a deal isn't usually a profitable strategy. On Jan 11, 2017 7:10 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: > Hahaha, I love it. +1 > > Thank you, > Brett A Mansfield > > On Jan 11, 2017, at 5:26 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: > > Just acquire, become more of a monopoly, write off all failed acquisitions > as losses, buy out competitors, and keep a wad of cash in the pockets of > the lobbyists you own so they can do their thing. Patent everything as fast > as you can. Buy as many patents as you can. Find ways to get regulations > that favor you and hurts any remaining competition. Murica. > > On Jan 11, 2017 3:56 PM, "Ken Hohhof" <af...@kwisp.com> wrote: > >> If the limiting factor is revenue, they need to get realistic. 4 years >> of earnings for a business that has already exhausted the available market >> potential (at least for sub count), and where infrastructure can require a >> forklift upgrade every 3-5 years, is about as good as they will find. >> >> >> >> On the other hand, if the limiting factor is costs consuming most of the >> revenue, the value of the business might change post acquisition. Perhaps >> you can cut salaries, if your existing techs can cover installs and >> maintenance, and you no longer need to pay the owners. Perhaps you can >> replace their expensive bandwidth with your less expensive bandwidth. >> Perhaps with your greater economies of scale and purchasing power, you can >> lower their other costs, renegotiate tower leases, etc. >> >> >> >> In business school, I remember being taught this is the stuff M is >> built on, assets that are worth more to the buyer than to the seller. >> Although you wouldn’t know it from the deals that make the news, they seem >> to be about getting bigger just to get bigger, with correspondingly bigger >> executive pay. >> >> >> >> >> >> *From:* Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Brett A Mansfield >> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:39 PM >> *To:* af@afmug.com >> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? >> >> >> >> There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine >> ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they >> won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. >> >> Thank you, >> >> Brett A Mansfield >> >> >> On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: >> >> How many subs? >> >> >> >> On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" < >> li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: >> >> When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's >> thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the >> litebeam hardware. >> >> I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is >> fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their >> plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. >> >> Thank you, >> Brett A Mansfield >> >>
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Hahaha, I love it. +1 Thank you, Brett A Mansfield > On Jan 11, 2017, at 5:26 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: > > Just acquire, become more of a monopoly, write off all failed acquisitions as > losses, buy out competitors, and keep a wad of cash in the pockets of the > lobbyists you own so they can do their thing. Patent everything as fast as > you can. Buy as many patents as you can. Find ways to get regulations that > favor you and hurts any remaining competition. Murica. > >> On Jan 11, 2017 3:56 PM, "Ken Hohhof" <af...@kwisp.com> wrote: >> If the limiting factor is revenue, they need to get realistic. 4 years of >> earnings for a business that has already exhausted the available market >> potential (at least for sub count), and where infrastructure can require a >> forklift upgrade every 3-5 years, is about as good as they will find. >> >> >> >> On the other hand, if the limiting factor is costs consuming most of the >> revenue, the value of the business might change post acquisition. Perhaps >> you can cut salaries, if your existing techs can cover installs and >> maintenance, and you no longer need to pay the owners. Perhaps you can >> replace their expensive bandwidth with your less expensive bandwidth. >> Perhaps with your greater economies of scale and purchasing power, you can >> lower their other costs, renegotiate tower leases, etc. >> >> >> >> In business school, I remember being taught this is the stuff M is built >> on, assets that are worth more to the buyer than to the seller. Although >> you wouldn’t know it from the deals that make the news, they seem to be >> about getting bigger just to get bigger, with correspondingly bigger >> executive pay. >> >> >> >> >> >> From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Brett A Mansfield >> Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:39 PM >> To: af@afmug.com >> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? >> >> >> >> There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine >> ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they >> won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. >> >> Thank you, >> >> Brett A Mansfield >> >> >> On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: >> >> How many subs? >> >> >> >> On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> >> wrote: >> >> When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought >> is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam >> hardware. >> >> I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is >> fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their >> plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. >> >> Thank you, >> Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I'm with Sterling, though I wouldn't go above $130k Josh Luthman Office: 937-552-2340 Direct: 937-552-2343 1100 Wayne St Suite 1337 Troy, OH 45373 On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 7:26 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: > Just acquire, become more of a monopoly, write off all failed acquisitions > as losses, buy out competitors, and keep a wad of cash in the pockets of > the lobbyists you own so they can do their thing. Patent everything as fast > as you can. Buy as many patents as you can. Find ways to get regulations > that favor you and hurts any remaining competition. Murica. > > On Jan 11, 2017 3:56 PM, "Ken Hohhof" <af...@kwisp.com> wrote: > >> If the limiting factor is revenue, they need to get realistic. 4 years >> of earnings for a business that has already exhausted the available market >> potential (at least for sub count), and where infrastructure can require a >> forklift upgrade every 3-5 years, is about as good as they will find. >> >> >> >> On the other hand, if the limiting factor is costs consuming most of the >> revenue, the value of the business might change post acquisition. Perhaps >> you can cut salaries, if your existing techs can cover installs and >> maintenance, and you no longer need to pay the owners. Perhaps you can >> replace their expensive bandwidth with your less expensive bandwidth. >> Perhaps with your greater economies of scale and purchasing power, you can >> lower their other costs, renegotiate tower leases, etc. >> >> >> >> In business school, I remember being taught this is the stuff M is >> built on, assets that are worth more to the buyer than to the seller. >> Although you wouldn’t know it from the deals that make the news, they seem >> to be about getting bigger just to get bigger, with correspondingly bigger >> executive pay. >> >> >> >> >> >> *From:* Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Brett A Mansfield >> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:39 PM >> *To:* af@afmug.com >> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? >> >> >> >> There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine >> ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they >> won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. >> >> Thank you, >> >> Brett A Mansfield >> >> >> On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: >> >> How many subs? >> >> >> >> On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" < >> li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: >> >> When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's >> thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the >> litebeam hardware. >> >> I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is >> fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their >> plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. >> >> Thank you, >> Brett A Mansfield >> >>
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Just acquire, become more of a monopoly, write off all failed acquisitions as losses, buy out competitors, and keep a wad of cash in the pockets of the lobbyists you own so they can do their thing. Patent everything as fast as you can. Buy as many patents as you can. Find ways to get regulations that favor you and hurts any remaining competition. Murica. On Jan 11, 2017 3:56 PM, "Ken Hohhof" <af...@kwisp.com> wrote: > If the limiting factor is revenue, they need to get realistic. 4 years of > earnings for a business that has already exhausted the available market > potential (at least for sub count), and where infrastructure can require a > forklift upgrade every 3-5 years, is about as good as they will find. > > > > On the other hand, if the limiting factor is costs consuming most of the > revenue, the value of the business might change post acquisition. Perhaps > you can cut salaries, if your existing techs can cover installs and > maintenance, and you no longer need to pay the owners. Perhaps you can > replace their expensive bandwidth with your less expensive bandwidth. > Perhaps with your greater economies of scale and purchasing power, you can > lower their other costs, renegotiate tower leases, etc. > > > > In business school, I remember being taught this is the stuff M is built > on, assets that are worth more to the buyer than to the seller. Although > you wouldn’t know it from the deals that make the news, they seem to be > about getting bigger just to get bigger, with correspondingly bigger > executive pay. > > > > > > *From:* Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] *On Behalf Of *Brett A Mansfield > *Sent:* Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:39 PM > *To:* af@afmug.com > *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? > > > > There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine > ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they > won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. > > Thank you, > > Brett A Mansfield > > > On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: > > How many subs? > > > > On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> > wrote: > > When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought > is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam > hardware. > > I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is > fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their > plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. > > Thank you, > Brett A Mansfield > >
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I think to myself I spend $200 on a new install so If I sold it would need to be worth at least that. I’m in Australia, I have 2300 sub’s and wouldn’t sell for less than 200 a sub From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Travis Johnson Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 10:40 AM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I always looked at these type of things as "How much could I spend in advertising and giving away free months of service in that area to pick up a majority of the customers anyway?" :) If they are at $20/month, you could give customers 6 months free to switch to you, and you gain a customer for $120. People love to switch when they can get service for free. Travis On 1/11/2017 2:39 PM, Brett A Mansfield wrote: There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com> wrote: How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I always looked at these type of things as "How much could I spend in advertising and giving away free months of service in that area to pick up a majority of the customers anyway?" :) If they are at $20/month, you could give customers 6 months free to switch to you, and you gain a customer for $120. People love to switch when they can get service for free. Travis On 1/11/2017 2:39 PM, Brett A Mansfield wrote: There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds> wrote: How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" > wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
Yeah, operating a hobby WISP is like restoring a muscle car. I think Jay Leno once described it along the lines of "buy a car for $5,000, put $20,000 into restoring it, and sell it for $10,000". At least with cars, if you're using it as a trade-in, the dealer can usually play games with the paperwork to avoid having to tell you that you're under water on your car loan and are paying them to take it off your hands. -Original Message- From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Adam Moffett Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 4:31 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? I see 190 customers and a $20/month plan. I don't think $20/month could be profitable if you built a serious network. I know I don't know anything about the situation, but my WAG based on these two data points is they're either unprofitable or built like a house of cards. Like anything it's worth what you're willing to pay. You've got lots of good suggestions here already for coming up with a number. I would just add that you should walk through and see if what they have is actually valuable to you. Maybe they'd have to pay you to take it away. -- Original Message -- From: "Sterling Jacobson" <sterl...@avative.net> To: "af@afmug.com" <af@afmug.com> Sent: 1/11/2017 5:22:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? >With only 190 customers it's really just a negotiation. > >I bet they have a figure in mind already. > >Just ask them. > >Why are they selling? > >If their gross sales is around $7k a month, then maybe $70k to $140k >total. > >That would also highly depend on their operations and costs/location >and market as well. > >Could be worth a lot less if their net is only $1k a month. > >-Original Message- >From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Brett A Mansfield >Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:13 PM >To: af@afmug.com >Subject: [AFMUG] Price per sub? > >When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's >thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the >litebeam hardware. > >I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think >is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. >Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. > >Thank you, >Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I see 190 customers and a $20/month plan. I don't think $20/month could be profitable if you built a serious network. I know I don't know anything about the situation, but my WAG based on these two data points is they're either unprofitable or built like a house of cards. Like anything it's worth what you're willing to pay. You've got lots of good suggestions here already for coming up with a number. I would just add that you should walk through and see if what they have is actually valuable to you. Maybe they'd have to pay you to take it away. -- Original Message -- From: "Sterling Jacobson" <sterl...@avative.net> To: "af@afmug.com" <af@afmug.com> Sent: 1/11/2017 5:22:00 PM Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? With only 190 customers it's really just a negotiation. I bet they have a figure in mind already. Just ask them. Why are they selling? If their gross sales is around $7k a month, then maybe $70k to $140k total. That would also highly depend on their operations and costs/location and market as well. Could be worth a lot less if their net is only $1k a month. -Original Message- From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Brett A Mansfield Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:13 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: [AFMUG] Price per sub? When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
With only 190 customers it's really just a negotiation. I bet they have a figure in mind already. Just ask them. Why are they selling? If their gross sales is around $7k a month, then maybe $70k to $140k total. That would also highly depend on their operations and costs/location and market as well. Could be worth a lot less if their net is only $1k a month. -Original Message- From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Brett A Mansfield Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:13 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: [AFMUG] Price per sub? When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
If the limiting factor is revenue, they need to get realistic. 4 years of earnings for a business that has already exhausted the available market potential (at least for sub count), and where infrastructure can require a forklift upgrade every 3-5 years, is about as good as they will find. On the other hand, if the limiting factor is costs consuming most of the revenue, the value of the business might change post acquisition. Perhaps you can cut salaries, if your existing techs can cover installs and maintenance, and you no longer need to pay the owners. Perhaps you can replace their expensive bandwidth with your less expensive bandwidth. Perhaps with your greater economies of scale and purchasing power, you can lower their other costs, renegotiate tower leases, etc. In business school, I remember being taught this is the stuff M is built on, assets that are worth more to the buyer than to the seller. Although you wouldn’t know it from the deals that make the news, they seem to be about getting bigger just to get bigger, with correspondingly bigger executive pay. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Brett A Mansfield Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:39 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynolds <j...@kyneticwifi.com <mailto:j...@kyneticwifi.com> > wrote: How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com <mailto:li...@silverlakeinternet.com> > wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
There are only 190 subs. I'll have to get their financials to determine ebitda since they don't even know. But if it's what I think it is then they won't sell for what I'll offer. 4x ebitda isn't much for only 190 subs. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield > On Jan 11, 2017, at 2:14 PM, Josh Reynoldswrote: > > How many subs? > >> On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" >> wrote: >> When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought >> is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam >> hardware. >> >> I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is >> fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their >> plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. >> >> Thank you, >> Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
I’ve never understood why the value is supposed to be so much higher if they sign customers to contracts. I would actually feel better about “customers so happy they have 90% market penetration without contracts” than “customers hate them but stay because they’re stuck in contracts”. Also, it might be a fight to enforce contracts after an ownership change, no matter what the contract says, if customers are really itching for an excuse to get out. Like Chuck says, multiple of EBITDA. Normally might want historic numbers on churn to assess risk, but it sounds like they don’t have much churn. The one downside of 90% take rate is not much potential for organic growth, unless there’s a housing boom. From: Af [mailto:af-boun...@afmug.com] On Behalf Of Chuck McCown Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 3:16 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? 4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com <mailto:li...@silverlakeinternet.com> > wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
4x ebitda From: Josh Reynolds Sent: Wednesday, January 11, 2017 2:14 PM To: af@afmug.com Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub? How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield" <li...@silverlakeinternet.com> wrote: When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield
Re: [AFMUG] Price per sub?
How many subs? On Jan 11, 2017 3:13 PM, "Brett A Mansfield"wrote: > When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought > is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam > hardware. > > I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is > fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their > plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. > > Thank you, > Brett A Mansfield >
[AFMUG] Price per sub?
When looking at buying a competitor, I'm wondering what everyone's thought is on a price per sub? They don't do contracts and they use the litebeam hardware. I'm not looking for legal advice, just wondering what all of you think is fair. This company has about a 90% take rate in the area they're in. Their plans are $20, $40, and $50/mo. Thank you, Brett A Mansfield