alf of Prof David
West
*Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
friam@redfish.com>
*Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
*To: *"friam@redfish.com"
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Steve,
Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the bo
ber 13, 2021 3:07 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I hear I thought we were benchmarking predictions.
From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com> > On
Behalf Of thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnick
I hear I thought we were benchmarking predictions.
From: Friam On Behalf Of thompnicks...@gmail.com
Sent: Monday, September 13, 2021 12:00 PM
To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group'
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Frank,
Mis sorted my email by mistake.
September 12, 2021 11:58 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I didn't notice the date. I thought it was newly posted. Why would it have
appeared in my email? Maybe I did a search and saw Marcus's message by
coi
cess to antiviral treatments. Out
>>>> in the blood and muck, herd immunity will begin to emerge in at risk
>>>> populations. The U.S. will continue to have high prevalence compared to
>>>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl mom
rday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
*To: *"friam@redfish.com"
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Steve,
Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I
made a
distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived
PANDEMIC. The
latter will go away whether or
nce compared to
>>> other countries. History will look back on this as a Chernobyl moment,
>>> where the prestige of the United States fell to Asia. And a second term
>>> of Trump will ensure it.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From: *F
nd term
>> of Trump will ensure it.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From: *Friam on behalf of Prof David West <
>> profw...@fastmail.fm>
>> *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam@redfish.com>
>> *Date: *Saturday, Ma
riam@redfish.com<mailto:friam@redfish.com>"
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Steve,
Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter
will
e Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Date: *Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
> *To: *"friam@redfish.com"
> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
>
>
> Steve,
>
>
>
> Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
&g
ty Coffee Group'
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Time for me to pack up and get out?
N
Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com<mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
Fro
May 16, 2020 2:39 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Dave,
Today markedly begins tourism season here in Santa Fe.
Over the last month, I have been going for long walks
downtown around the plaza. I prefer it to the crowded
walks along the bicycle paths and
Dave,
Today markedly begins tourism season here in Santa Fe.
Over the last month, I have been going for long walks
downtown around the plaza. I prefer it to the crowded
walks along the bicycle paths and until today, all the
business were closed and the park relatively empty.
Today, I counted aroun
Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Date: Saturday, May 16, 2020 at 8:25 AM
To: "friam@redfish.com"
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Steve,
Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC.
Steve,
Yes the subject line is click-bait. In the body of the message I made a
distinction between the disease pandemic and the perceived PANDEMIC. The latter
will go away whether or not the disease does.
The metrics for the latter would include increased traffic to websites like the
Mathemati
behalf of Prof David West
Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 1:23 PM
To: "friam@redfish.com"
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Marcus,
Unfortunately, culture is, at minimum, NP-Hard and almost certainly NP comple
Dave -
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to
respond to the singular prediction above:
What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to
indicate that the pandemic has ended?
F
Sorry. The wife says, "It turns out that it wasn't the meteor that killed
the dinosaurs; it was stress about the meteor".
On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 5:02 PM Frank Wimberly wrote:
> Stress or virus
>
>
> https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipNtFVkBUo9UR7UFiqk8Pe9Jvo-2WubK07UEUGhr
>
> On Tue, May 12
Stress or virus
https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipNtFVkBUo9UR7UFiqk8Pe9Jvo-2WubK07UEUGhr
On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 2:33 PM Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Dave writes:
>
>
>
> “Unfortunately, culture is, at minimum, NP-Hard and almost certainly NP
> complete.”
>
>
>
> Noisy wetware is going to get an
Dave writes:
“Unfortunately, culture is, at minimum, NP-Hard and almost certainly NP
complete.”
Noisy wetware is going to get anywhere without exponential resources?
Like Sars-COV2, the humans are sometimes prone to that rate of reproduction.
Marcus
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-
I understand. But remember that I care very little about the person wearing (or
not) a helmet. I care *much* more about the other drivers, the ambulance,
healthcare costs (of both dead and not-dead), etc. What that implies is that I
don't care very much about the stories from MEs or EMTs, etc. W
Marcus,
Unfortunately, culture is, at minimum, NP-Hard and almost certainly NP complete.
davew
On Tue, May 12, 2020, at 2:18 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Dave writes:
>
> < Similar things happen all the time when we insist on focusing on "the
> science" and ignore the "art" and the insights
Dave writes:
< Similar things happen all the time when we insist on focusing on "the
science" and ignore the "art" and the insights of "non-scientific" disciplines
and fields of inquiry. >
It is possible to state models of cultural interactions and simulate them on a
computer. When one does
glen,
another time, another place, if an only if someone is interested — I can prove
my assertions about helmets and show exactly and precisely how all the studies
you may have found using Google Scholar, err. Show how other factors (notably
age and hours of experience) are far more important t
Steve,
Thanks for the thoughtful comments. I continue to fail in my attempts to
parameterize discussions because all of you are so dammed smart. But I try
again.
I wanted to make a simple prediction (the end of the pandemic) that contrasted
significantly with the prevailing prediction (yours i
Glen -
> Aha! Excellent point! That viruses are parasites might be a critical issue,
> though. What do viruses really do for us? It's less a matter of whether they
> feel pain and more about parasitism. I hesitate to google "ethics of
> parasitism".
.. and now we tangent to mutualistic, comme
Aha! Excellent point! That viruses are parasites might be a critical issue,
though. What do viruses really do for us? It's less a matter of whether they
feel pain and more about parasitism. I hesitate to google "ethics of
parasitism".
On 5/12/20 9:53 AM, Steven A Smith wrote:
> and Virii? Don'
On 5/12/20 10:10 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> Ha! Well, these analogies do break down. So "precisely the same way" doesn't
> really work. For example, I think you'd be hard pressed to say that the costs
> associated with obesity are "precisely the same" as the costs associated with
> cleaning your smash
Ha! Well, these analogies do break down. So "precisely the same way" doesn't
really work. For example, I think you'd be hard pressed to say that the costs
associated with obesity are "precisely the same" as the costs associated with
cleaning your smashed body off the road.
I continue to argue f
On 5/12/20 7:56 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> The contrary argument was made to me by my dad, who called himself a
> "Goldwater Conservative", was that when you end up as a blood smear all over
> the highway or all smashed up against a tree, *someone* has to clean that
> sh¡t up. Factor in, further, rubb
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year
My memory/impression is that widespread seatbelt use began in the mid
sixties.
---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505
505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM
On Tue, May 12, 2020, 7:57 AM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> The
The contrary argument was made to me by my dad, who called himself a "Goldwater
Conservative", was that when you end up as a blood smear all over the highway
or all smashed up against a tree, *someone* has to clean that sh¡t up. Factor
in, further, rubbernecking, the possibility of children seei
Dave -
> You noted,/"I simply can't read this as a "simple observation /
> prediction"... I believe it is laced with judgements and
> assumptions... some I agree with and some which I find either
> questionable in substance or in intent, but all worth inspecting."/
>
> Nevertheless, that is exactl
s...@gmail.com>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
> <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
>
>
>
>
> From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On
> Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
> Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
> To: The Friday Morning
eritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
> Clark University
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Steven A Smith
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:50 AM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com
> *Subject:*
Steve,
You noted,* "I simply can't read this as a "simple observation / prediction"...
I believe it is laced with judgements and assumptions... some I agree with and
some which I find either questionable in substance or in intent, but all worth
inspecting."*
Nevertheless, that is exactly what
Gary -
Thanks for the additional context. I wonder who else we have here from
significantly non US contexts. We just heard from Pietro and do hear
from Jochen and the two? Aussies off and on, I'm sure we have lurkers
from many more places (I think Mohammed El-Betagay (Cairo/Stockholm)
left the
y
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@
: Monday, May 11, 2020 at 2:31 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Replying to the Snoke post, and only to a specific part of it:
Why bother to put a bunch of text into refuting logical fallacies in screeds
that were never about
It starts at 9 am
>> Mountain; you should get an invite automatically, sometime thursday. If
>> not, let me know.
>>
>>
>>
>> Nick
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Nicholas Thompson
>>
>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
gt;
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I definitely will try to make it to some FRIAM Zooms.
Unfortunately, Friday is the one day a week I am permitted to go
out on the roads with my car
If old people don't eventually die or if babies stop being born in large
enough numbers Social Security is doomed.
Frank
On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 12:22 PM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote:
> This is clearly wrong. People go berserk on a regular basis over various
> injustices (the strangling of black men, lynching
This is clearly wrong. People go berserk on a regular basis over various
injustices (the strangling of black men, lynching of trans people, bankruptcy
from healthcare bills, losing one's home because they got laid off, living in a
tent on the highway with 3 children, choosing between rent and fo
11, 2020 at 11:08 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
My high school best friend Jim Snoke posted this on Facebook. He is also an
anthropologist, like Dave. He says he finished his dissertation at UC Davis
but his defense never
; Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning App
pnicks...@gmail.com
<https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/>
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
From: Friam On Behalf Of Gary Schiltz
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 11:13 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I definit
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2020 10:50 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
Dave -
The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and
the perceptual.
The virus is no
; *From:* Friam *On Behalf Of *Gary Schiltz
> *Sent:* Monday, May 11, 2020 10:09 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
>
>
>
> I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don'
: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord" -
sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google search
shows a company calle
Dave -
> The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
>
> This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and
> the perceptual.
>
> The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made
> widely available, and treatments that r
@redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] the end of the pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and
the perceptual.
The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely
On 5/11/20 9:11 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Compared to what? Confluence or Slack?One problem I have with the
> former is that web-based editing is still spongy, slow and arbitrarily
> different from a real editor.Slack still lacks nestable threads and
> encourages shallow, synchronou
Glen writes:
< Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to
"pin" a post so that it's easily found later on. >
Compared to what? Confluence or Slack?One problem I have with the former
is that web-based editing is still spongy, slow and arbitrarily different f
I'm supposed to be a geek, but I don't understand "Tempus Dictum's Discord"
- sounds like some mathematical proof from the ancient Greeks. Google
search shows a company called Tempus Dictum, and there appears to be some
software called Discord, either or both of which may or may not be
associated w
Dave writes:
< There will be a segment of the populace — mostly the affluent elderly and
individuals who have acquired money/influence/notoriety the past few months —
who will argue against these changes but their objections will be quickly
countered with, "why should I suffer all kinds of cons
Among the many reasons email is obsolete is the ability of other tools to "pin"
a post so that it's easily found later on. In principle, the Mailman list page
could do this. But it's comparatively awkward. Piling more into the footer can
play the same role, but since few posters clean up their p
The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020.
This assertion is premised on making a distinction between the biological and
the perceptual.
The virus is not going away, a vaccine may or may not be found and made widely
available, and treatments that reduce severity and
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