On Mon, Aug 5, 2013 at 9:40 PM, Kevin O'Malley kevmol...@gmail.com wrote:
Eventually the price itself is a tremendous indicator.
My experience with non-monetary prediction markets is that the pathological
popular belief system will prevail until the last minute and then the price
will
James Bowery jabow...@gmail.com wrote:
My experience with non-monetary prediction markets is that the
pathological popular belief system will prevail until the last minute and
then the price will reflect reality.
Yes. When public opinion is wildly wrong, the adjustment to reality tends
to
On Aug 6, 2013, at 11:05, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
Energy companies will face ruin.
I wonder whether they can slow that process down through a well-conceived
campaign of lobbying for commercial and industrial regulation.
Eric
-Original Message-
From: Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Tue, Aug 6, 2013 3:24 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:MFMP on a possible independent report of DGT's Hyperion
On Aug 6, 2013, at 11:05, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
Energy companies will face ruin
Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote:
Energy companies will face ruin.
I wonder whether they can slow that process down through a well-conceived
campaign of lobbying for commercial and industrial regulation.
I am sure they will try. Whether they succeed or not will depend upon the
will
Jed,
I think prediction markets actually CAN be useful to confirm or deny
assertions about scientific or engineering, and my article about How I
Made Money in Cold Fusion is precisely aimed at that. If I had been given
the 2nd contract aimed at the replication of Dr. Mossier-Boss's triple
tracks
Kevin O'Malley kevmol...@gmail.com wrote:
I think prediction markets actually CAN be useful to confirm or deny
assertions about scientific or engineering, . . .
Sorry, but I still say this is a mechanism to measure people's opinions, or
their feelings. Opinions and feelings have no bearing
On Mon, Aug 5, 2013 at 6:12 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
. .
Sorry, but I still say this is a mechanism to measure people's opinions, or
their feelings.
***No, it is NOT. When I put up the contract for whether or not Dr.
Arata's experiment would be replicated in a peer reviewed
Kevin O'Malley kevmol...@gmail.com wrote:
Sorry, but I still say this is a mechanism to measure people's opinions,
or their feelings.
***No, it is NOT. When I put up the contract for whether or not Dr.
Arata's experiment would be replicated in a peer reviewed journal, it had
zero to do
On Mon, Aug 5, 2013 at 7:55 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
On the contrary, that outcome depends on the opinions of the journal
editors. Many fine experiments are not replicated because people will not
fund them, or they are not published because the editors are biased.
***Ok, that
Kevin O'Malley kevmol...@gmail.com wrote:
The fact that editors in the past had overcome their own internal
objections on a few rare LENR developments in the past would indicate this
was a rational bet, but not necessarily a guaranteed one.
Sure, I agree. It is reasonable to bet that people
The discussion is about the value of prediction markets. It is not a bet
on human nature, because as you have saidm It is reasonable to bet that
people will act in a sane way, because in most cases they do. Civilization
would not work otherwise. Human nature is not the variable in this bet.
The
To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of
December 17, 1903, you were take a poll about whether man can fly.
***A better contract would be that an independent scientific journal (to
wit, eventually it was a beekeeping journal) would publish an article about
the
I agree with precisely what you say.
No vote, nor market, nor consensus decide what is true of false...
however the problem is not what IS, but what IS ACCEPTED, and what you DO.
Taleb moto about flesh in the game is that if you have buck or flesh in
the game, you invest more energy to control
From Blaze:
Our entire economic system is based on this thing called money.
It's how we value opportunities. I'm not a materialist, but
I do appreciate having this objective measurement.
As to I, to a certain extent.
Is it perfect? Obviously not. But it'll have to do until
I would add that, this radical economic change is rushing in upon us.
BusinessInsider reports that 80% of Americans are unemployed, dependent on
welfare or living near the poverty line. Areas such as Spain may be far worse.
On Mon, Jul 29, 2013 at 9:20 AM, Chris Zell chrisz...@wetmtv.com wrote:
**
I would add that, this radical economic change is rushing in upon us.
BusinessInsider reports that 80% of Americans are unemployed, dependent on
welfare or living near the poverty line. Areas such as Spain may be far
Terry Blanton hohlr...@gmail.com wrote:
BusinessInsider reports that 80% of Americans are unemployed, dependent on
welfare or living near the poverty line. Areas such as Spain may be far
worse.
80% might be *under* employed. Citation, please.
The wording is a little confusing. This
We have seen such a change in our society with the industrial revolution,
when less people were needed to feed the others...
what happen ? they moved to factory... it was hard at the beginning, huge
poverty, social struggle, marxism, paternalism, social security, and in the
60s it was working well
: RE: [Vo]:MFMP on a possible independent report of DGT's Hyperion
Date: Sat, 27 Jul 2013 13:09:49 -0500
From Blaze:
...
In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting, I
spent about the
last 8 years or so on Intrade making buckets of money on making big bets
To: vortex-l@eskimo.com
Subject: RE: [Vo]:MFMP on a possible independent report of DGT's Hyperion
Date: Sat, 27 Jul 2013 13:09:49 -0500
From Blaze:
...
In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting, I
spent about the
last 8 years or so on Intrade making buckets
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
Our entire economic system is based on this thing called money. It's
how we value opportunities. I'm not a materialist, but I do
appreciate having this objective measurement.
Is it perfect? Obviously not. But it'll have to do until
I wrote:
No, it is not at all useful. In 1989, there were two people in the world
who knew about cold fusion: Fleischmann and Pons. What would be the
predictive value of asking others whether it is existed?
To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of
December
To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of
December 17, 1903, you were take a poll about whether man can fly.
What does that have to do with the value of prediction markets?
And, btw if that's the analogy, are you saying we haven't learned to
do LENR+ yet? That
(Which is what I'm trying to predict. I am not trying to predict
whether it's possible to quantum tunnel through the Coulomb barrier)
at should be restated as disrupt the Higgs superconductivity.
On Sun, Jul 28, 2013 at 10:36 PM, blaze spinnaker
blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
To give
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of
December 17, 1903, you were take a poll about whether man can fly.
What does that have to do with the value of prediction markets?
I mean only that prediction markets
You cannot predict that.
You can.
blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
You cannot predict that.
You can.
GLENDOWER I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?
(The other problem is that you seem to be trying to predict something
The other problem is that you seem to be trying to predict
something that has already occurred,
Schrodinger's eCat!
I imagine that yo know Nassim Nicholas Taleb vision.
what you do is matching his advices .
the highly improbable is much undesrestimated, even if still improbable.
2013/7/27 blaze spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting, I
spent
From Blaze:
...
In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting, I
spent about the
last 8 years or so on Intrade making buckets of money on making big bets
on highly
improbable events like this which came true. The opportunities for
profit there were
yes, there is market inefficiency due to risk aversion.
Black swans exist.
D2
From: orionwo...@charter.net
To: vortex-l@eskimo.com
Subject: RE: [Vo]:MFMP on a possible independent report of DGT's Hyperion
Date: Sat, 27 Jul 2013 13:09:49 -0500
From Blaze: ... In terms of my credentials
Very very exciting.
Hopefully they will publish a test protocol for review / scrutiny well
beforehand.
DGT stole a page from Rossi's book on the Ni-H scientific side, now they're
stealing a page from his book on how to conduct business and promise
undisclosed future promises of independent university testing.
I think they were working with Rossi and decided for themselves that the
guy was too
i tried to explain this very thing to blaze over on the above top secret forums
a little over a month ago and encouraged him to join this mailing list to hear
from some real experts in the field which is how he wound up here. i agree his
tune has changed incredibly from the beginning which is
i tried to explain this very thing to blaze over on the above top secret
forums a little over a month ago and encouraged him to join this mailing
Joe, that's not me. I thought you were referring to something else
when you said above top secret forums. I didn't actually realize
there was a
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