On 2/16/2012 2:10 PM, Jeffrey Kesselman wrote:
So, thats one data point out of how many? And its a known outlier as you yourself say its the one of the top grossing apps.
Yes, it's an outlier.
So basing your economics on its income is a lot like basing your expectation of a lottery ticket on the Jackpot amount.
It's not nearly that bad, but no, I wouldn't EXPECT to be the top game. That would just be silly.
What you really need to asses income value is a distribution of the income of a significant sized random sample across the entire space.
You don't need to know across the entire space. You just need to know across the range of DECENT apps; there's a lot of crap in the long tail, which is why the averages across the entire space end up looking so bad. I've seen numbers like $600 of income average over the life of a game app, but my app, with no promotion, made much more than that per month, and it was growing nicely until I decided to be impatient and signed on to a publisher.
But it's never been my strategy to hit the jackpot as much as to produce multiple games that each provide a revenue stream.
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