On Thu, Feb 16, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Nathan <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Feb 16, 1:10 pm, Jeffrey Kesselman <[email protected]> wrote:
> >
> > What you really need to asses income value is a distribution of the
>  income
> > of a significant sized random sample across the entire space.
>
> Well, I doubt you are going to get that data, but post it here if you
> do. Do you have enough data to dismiss the freemium model as a waste
> of time?
>

I dont have the data to show that shredding your code and throwing it from
the rooftops isn't a business model ,either.  Thats a negation fallacy.
 Something is not true just because you don't have the information to prove
it false.

What it is a gigantic unknown risk.  Risk management is the #1 job of all
real game developers.  Ask a few game producer if you don't believe me.


> Are you of the opinion that one should not do something unless they
> can calculate a statistically sound probable income from it?
>

See the above.  And yes, one should not go into a business where they have
no idea of what the risks are, how bad they are, or what to do about them.
 Thats called "gambling", not business.



>
> Are you really saying that one should release as many apps as possible
> without doing any testing or debugging? I doubt it.
>

Zynga has made a much touted business of it.  They do no testing, in fact
they don't even consider a mal-feature a "bug" unless it is driving
customers away from their behaviour goals. I have this from senior Zynga
people.

, I believe the long tail is positively correlated with low
> quality. Now, there could be some high quality stuff there that is
> limited by the person's grammar, spelling, marketing ability, or
> motivation.
> No, I don't have statistical proof of that. Do you have statistical
> proof that it isn't true .
>

You realize that you have just made a religious argument?  "I am going to
act as if this is true because I wish it to be true and don't have proof it
is false."  Good way to run a religion. bad way to run a business.

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