On Feb 16, 2:52 pm, Jeffrey Kesselman <[email protected]> wrote: > On Thu, Feb 16, 2012 at 5:35 PM, Nathan <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Feb 16, 1:10 pm, Jeffrey Kesselman <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > What you really need to asses income value is a distribution of the > > income > > > of a significant sized random sample across the entire space. > > > Well, I doubt you are going to get that data, but post it here if you > > do. Do you have enough data to dismiss the freemium model as a waste > > of time? > > I dont have the data to show that shredding your code and throwing it from > the rooftops isn't a business model ,either. Thats a negation fallacy. > Something is not true just because you don't have the information to prove > it false. > > What it is a gigantic unknown risk. Risk management is the #1 job of all > real game developers. Ask a few game producer if you don't believe me. >
Well, we probably don't disagree on much. I don't think either one of us has proof. I'm just making the point that the data you want is probably not available and probably won't be. Google has all the data you want but is unlikely to share it. They have recommended the freemium model. The risks of that assessment involve whatever bias they have. Flurry *might* have the data you are seeking. They recommend the freemium model. > > Are you of the opinion that one should not do something unless they > > can calculate a statistically sound probable income from it? > > See the above. And yes, one should not go into a business where they have > no idea of what the risks are, how bad they are, or what to do about them. > Thats called "gambling", not business. > OK, whatever your comfort zone is. But don't assume the risks of *not* taking a particular action are zero either. I think there is enough evidence that if you took the average income from every single app in the Android Market, and based your decision on that, you would *never* develop an app. All independent android developers are gamblers. FWIW, I do have enough data to make a few decisions about my app and how the addon model could work out for it, based on statistics, precedents and experimental data. In case you were worried. How it would work out for everybody or the "average" app is secondary to me. You can all make your own assessment about that for your own app, present or future. > Good way to run a religion. bad way to run a business. I have no experience running a religion, nor am I all that perfect at running a business, so I can't compare the two. ;) Since we both have only anecdotal evidence of quality I think I'll just have to be agnostic. Nathan -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Discuss" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-discuss?hl=en.
