I don't think there is a need for a debate as much as figuring out the
right questions to ask or want to ask.
What sort of range do you **need**?
What do you expect out of the vehicle (commuter vehicle, go'fer
runs, pickup truck, taxi, etc.)?
What is the shortest time do you want to wait between full recharges?
How recyclable is this car? etc.
There is no sense in buying a Twofer if you expected to drive in a 3 to
4 person carpool.
A used Leaf can about $10K and have an EPA range of 84 miles or a real
winter range of 50 miles.
The Leaf pack of 24 kwhrs has a replacement cost of approximately $6K or
$250/ kwhr. The 2016 Leaf has an extended range model of 107 mile with
with a 30 kwhr pack. By the numbers, this should cost around an extra
$1500 or $7500 for a replacement pack. What are the trade offs?
for the 2018 and 2019 EV model years, several manufacturers say they
will produce 200 mile and a 300 mile EVs. At $250/ kwhr, the
replacement packs would be around $15,000 and $22,500, respectively.
Meaning you could save almost $8k if you only needed a 200 mile range
instead of 300 mile range.
Tesla is talking an eventual cost of $150 / kwhr. If Tesla meets their
price point, Nissan and all the other EV manufacturers should also be in
the same ball park. Therefore, future Leafs could have a pack
replacement cost of $3000 and $3750 for a 24 Kwhr and 30 Kwhr pack
respectively.
A used Leaf can save you a lot of money and the saving can be put to
adding PV, or borrowing or leasing a car to take a trip. But is it the
car you really need? Should you buy now or wait until the range exceeds
a goal such as the distance to Grandma's house, a favorite vacation
spot, or commuting distance, etc.
Just some thoughts.
On 9/28/2015 5:52 PM, Jukka Järvinen via EV wrote:
AH! But our conversions were always compromises as the new technology did
not fit nicely anywhere. Light vehicles are OK but majority of people do
not think that way. They require 'safe' cars and that's what sells. It
would be far more better if everyone worked from home and only walked
around the house. On the other hand Model S like heavy vehicles push the
agenda further. It opens a fast track for technology development as more
capital is needed for R&D and it is not justified until there is proven
demand for the technology. So I think it is a bit academic debate which
would be better as market environment pushes things to certain direction
anyway. Yes. Also I'm happy if more li-ion cells are sold and manufactured
as it's what pays my bills :D But seriously. Light cars like Smart and
even lighter 3-wheelers are economic but they are actually just horrible to
drive. At least on our roads. Thou I would have loved to drive Aptera
because how beautiful it looked. I have no idea how it handled. To throw
something in on this debate I would like to encourage people to think a bit
further what it comes to batteries. We are going to see some pretty nice
things during next couple of years. -Jukka
http://www.google.com/profiles/jarviju#about
2015-09-29 0:30 GMT+03:00 Lawrence Rhodes via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org>:
Our budget ev's fail because they are too heavy. If you converted or
built a small light vehicle using a kit as are available you will find that
you will gain in every area with a small pack and light vehicle. Look at
Stella Lux. Pushing a 700 mile range with 15kw pack. Look at what the
Tesla could do with a light vehicle. Because of the 85 to 90kw pack the
car must be much heavier to carry the weight. Carrying more weight hurts
range so it is a vicious cycle of over engineering. 375 miles on 16kw or
300 miles on 85kw. I will take the lighter alternative...add solar and you
never need plugging in as solar makes sense on light vehicles....not heavy
ones like we convert. Lawrence Rhodes
From: Jukka Järvinen <akkuju...@akkujukka.fi>
To: Peri Hartman <pe...@kotatko.com>; Electric Vehicle Discussion List <
ev@lists.evdl.org>
Cc: Lawrence Rhodes <primobass...@sbcglobal.net>; "
ev-requ...@lists.evdl.org" <ev-requ...@lists.evdl.org>
Sent: Monday, September 28, 2015 2:00 PM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: The Big EV Debate> Go for Small or Big Battery
Pack?
I think it's more important to think how the user benefits from the
battery sizing.
While it might sound irrational to have 150kWh onboard it would enable
stressless driving with longer useful lifetime. The vehicle it self will
have better resale value as it remains more usable even after 10 or 15
years. Also people need to charge their cars only as much as they use. It
has nothing to do with the battery size.
But... 1C charging with 20kWh pack is 333Wh/minute. 1C charging for 150kWh
pack is 2.500Wh/minute. If it takes 250Wh/km (400Wh/mi) you either gain
0,83mi/minute or 6,25mi/minute. A DC-dumping with 300kW will stress less
the larger pack as it has more mass to absorb the losses and there's less
temperature rise during use. Also the discharge side has to be considered.
You might not need more than 20kW to move one econobox but see how Model S
P85D puts the EV's on the map. Our budget conversions could not do that. We
need to admit that. Sorry.
What makes all the difference for the business is how much does the
battery cost. We will see less than $100/kWh before 2020. Or at least it is
possible but if demand is high it sets the price level. On the other hand
Tesla may provide Model 3 as a service and they will own the cars always.
Then it does not matter how much the cells cost. You just pay that 10c/mi
and nothing else. So it does not matter if it weights 2, 3 or 5 tons. Even
less if the car drives itself. :)
-Jukka
http://www.google.com/profiles/jarviju#about
2015-09-28 23:39 GMT+03:00 Peri Hartman via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org>:
I think the key factor is the Cd of .16. While I think lighter vehicles
are better for many reasons, it doesn't seem to make that much difference
in efficiency unless you are spending most of your time on slow speed city
streets.
For example, my Leaf gets about 1.5 - 2.5 miles per kWh (depending on
accessories and temperature) on city streets where I live. But if I go
60mph on the freeway, I can sometimes get 4 miles per kWh.
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "Lawrence Rhodes via EV" <ev@lists.evdl.org>
To: "ev@lists.evdl.org" <ev@lists.evdl.org>; "ev-requ...@lists.evdl.org" <
ev-requ...@lists.evdl.org>
Sent: 28-Sep-15 1:31:45 PM
Subject: [EVDL] EVLN: The Big EV Debate> Go for Small or Big Battery Pack?
The debate should be about light or heavy vehicles and efficiency. If
you have an efficient vehicle that is light you might draw 55wh per mile.
The typical heavy conversion like the I3 , Leaf, Rav4, IMEV, or any other
of the currently available EV's are just too heavy to give good range with
a small pack. They all draw 200 or more wh per mile. The I3 is going in
the right direction. It has a relatively small pack and is more efficient
than all the other competitors. If however you have a light vehicle
around a thousand pounds your range will be close to 350 miles with a 16kw
battery pack. The vehicle needs to have a CD of about .16. With these
specifications you don't have to have a big pack. It will charge in 2.5
hours with a 6.6kw charger. Efficiency and charging time should be the
goal. Smaller the pack the quicker the charge. Also the packs will last
longer as they are not stressed as much by carrying large weights.
Engineering the right combination is what is needed. Not 85kw packs in
5000 pound cars...however they are very comfortable and useful as is and
better than the ICE alternative. Lawrence Rhodes
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