[Andre]
I agree with you Arlo, and as said above, hopefully we have learned
some more from this and other tragedies.
[Arlo]
The human spirit is resilient, even if at times needing a spark from
tragedy to act. But I'll fall back on the word "chance" (and
"probability") here and say that you can never hit a point where
there is no probability for "failure". Each and every flight around
the world has, even if its so small as to be almost insignificant,
some probability for crashing. The "chance" is always there. And that
"chance" derives from the complex conflicts between inorganic,
biological, social and intellectual patterns all responding to DQ
within their own repertoire.
I've been watching that show "Seconds from Disaster", which I find
very well done. I think watching it with a MOQ eye shows how small
events (almost inconsequential at the time the occur) can very
quickly cause high probabilities for "disaster" when they overlap
with other small events. It's an almost exponential increase in
probability for tragedy, like when a few small waves "sync" and cause
one huge destructive wave. What's important (I feel) to see is that
each "event" opens up a new probability field, changes the "odds" of
certain things occurring. But these fields are more than just simply
"additive".
You mention the recent Turkish Airlines crash, and I see now where
the "cause" of this is being attributed to a faulty altitude
indicator and "inattentive pilots". Let's say each one of these set
up a probability-to-crash field of 1%. Together, however, the field
increases to, let's say, 50%. At any point along the way there was
never certainty of "crash" or "not crash", but a string of events got
the probability so high it seems (in retrospect) unavoidable. Maybe a
gust of wind at the last moment may have angled the plane to impact
differently, and instead of nine death there would have been none. Or
maybe more. Maybe a passing storm would've grounded the jet long
enough for someone to catch the faulty equipment. Maybe if the pilot
had (I'm just wildly speculating here) gone to bed an hour earlier
the night before, or had one more cup of coffee that morning, or
maybe would have been sleeping better if he had not had a fight with
his spouse the week before (or something social like this), maybe if
a politician or CEO somewhere would've demanded better training
and/or regulation, maybe all these things would've changed the
outcome; maybe for the better, maybe for the worse.
Point is, in that moment of the crash, the probability of it
occurring approached 100%. However, a week, or a month or a year,
before hand the odds of ALL these things coming together exactly as
they did approaches the most insignificant percentage possible (or
consider the odds of all these things coming together as they did one
hundred years ago!), say .0000000000000000000001% or less. Just
think, if that pilots great, great grandfather had been killed before
birthing that particular family line, maybe this event would not have
occurred.
This is the point about "chance", there is "probability" something
will occur (which increases vastly as one approaches the dynamic
moment.. example, the chance of me pressing "t" after typing "momen"
are about as near 100% as you can get. But the chance a few years
back that I'd be pressing the "t" key in just that second were as
close to 0% as you could get), but never any predestined "plan".
I know you know this. Like I said, this is an interesting topic for me.
[Andre]
PS did you enjoy that ride on the Harley?
[Arlo]
You know it! Although in central Pennsylvania we can always count on
some April snow. Each Spring I treat myself to a new "custom"
upgrade. This year I am going simple and swapping the old saddle for
a Mustang solo seat (with a removable pillion). I am also hoping to
produce some web video this year of our run to the Vietnam Memorial
(as well as some other rides we take). If I do, I'll post a link.
Nothing in the world like hundreds of bikes moving in solemn
procession, and nothing more moving than honoring those who have made
the greatest sacrifice; when you see some of the biggest, burliest,
toughest, meanest looking bikers reduced to uncontrollable tears, you
see a glimpse of the most profound human condition there is.
Andre:
And they did, and hopefully, the intellectual patterns investigating this
tragedy have learnt some more about the behaviour of organic/inorganic PoV's
(in the said circumstances/context) to minimise the chances of a repeat.
Arlo:
When that failed, and the atoms and whatnot composing the rocket were
"freed" from their prison, they responded to DQ in a way that caused a
conflict between them and the intellectual-social-biological components, and
the inorganic components won.
Anyway, that's my take on it.
Andre:
I agree with you Arlo, and as said above, hopefully we have learned some
more from this and other tragedies.
As you are no doubt aware, we have had one a few weeks ago here in Amsterdam
with Turkish Airlines. Preliminary investigation points to mechanical and
human 'faillure'. These indications simply point to the ever present need to
remain dynamically active in our search for improvements,... realising these
will be provisional.
Regards,
Andre
PS did you enjoy that ride on the Harley?
Moq_Discuss mailing list
Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc.
http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org
Archives:
http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/
http://moq.org.uk/pipermail/moq_discuss_archive/
Moq_Discuss mailing list
Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc.
http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org
Archives:
http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/
http://moq.org.uk/pipermail/moq_discuss_archive/
