Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Benjamin Goertzel]

On 10/19/07, J. Andrew Rogers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> On Oct 18, 2007, at 11:32 PM, John G. Rose wrote:
> > It's really hard to sell if the deliverable time frame exceeds 3 to
> > 4 years.
>
>
> Why does an AGI deliverable require more than 3-4 years?  You better
> have a good answer for that, or no one will fund you.  Most people
> *don't* have a good answer for that.
>


Well, when we plotted out everything that seems to need to be done
to turn the current NM design into a robust human-child-level AGI,
in M$ project, it came out to about 6.5 years for a team of 10-15
top AI engineers.

Of course for a smaller, simpler AGI design it could take substantially
less work... and of course such estimates have much potential for
error ...

But my point is: once you have a real AGI design, you can make real
time estimates, just like for any other software project (and there are of
course other software projects besides AGI that involve some R&D
aspects, so there is some experience to go on in making schedule
estimates for such things).

And as with any other project, the estimates
come out as they will based on the technical considerations, regardless
of how rapidly the funders or potential funders (or the visionaries who
conceived the original idea, for that matter) would like them to come out...

-- Ben G

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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Robert Wensman]

Short-sightedness is the curse of our time. In the medieval times, they
built cathedrals that took 400 years to complete. That gives quite some
perspective when considering the time frame of today's VC/research projects.

/R



2007/10/19, Benjamin Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>
> >
> > AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think
> > of.  Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture
> > constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on
> > performance and reputation.  It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well-
> > deserved.
> >
> > In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for
> > AGI.  Which does not suggest other finance models.
>
>
>
> I think that AGI for agent control in virtual worlds is not so hopeless
> in terms of appealing to VC's ... there's a real market there, and there's
>
> clearly a situation where more and more powerful AGI can yield more and
> more profits...
>
> Having said that, I would still prefer to avoid the VC route for
> Novamente.
>
> I have talked to a number of VC's in recent months -- and by and large
> they
> want to pigeonhole us as a company that forever will be focused on
> whatever
> our first product is gonna be (If your first product is for instance
> an animal
> in virtual worlds then -- bingo! -- you're a virtual animal company!!)
>
> VC's in nearly all cases don't have a long time horizon, so to find an AGI
> opportunity that synergizes with their needs requires a good bit of
> luck...
>
> -- Ben
>
>
> --
> This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[David Orban]

Ben wrote:
> Having said that, I would still prefer to avoid the VC route for Novamente.

An other route that Novamente is apparently exploring, is that of open
source development, with OpenCog. It will be very interesting to see
how it pans out, what level of interest and involvement from the
larger developer community it garners, etc.

And to bring this thread back somewhat to its origin, the economical
viability of AGI projects is obviously relevant to the public, as
investors in publicly quoted companies, in capitalistic societies with
a widely spread mass  of institutional or individual shareholders.

To many an Open Source AGI project is the most dangerous path, for the
knowledge in the open enables anybody to accelerate their route to
evil, and for others it is the only way, through spreading the
knowledge to make sure that we have an equally wide understanding of
best defenses.

In this way the economical model of AGI development is intimately tied
to its possible public perception.


David Orban
www.davidorban.com
skype davidorban
sl davidorban


On 10/19/07, Benjamin Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think
> > of.  Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture
> > constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on
> > performance and reputation.  It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well-
> > deserved.
> >
> > In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for
> > AGI.  Which does not suggest other finance models.
>
>
> I think that AGI for agent control in virtual worlds is not so hopeless
> in terms of appealing to VC's ... there's a real market there, and there's
> clearly a situation where more and more powerful AGI can yield more and
> more profits...
>
> Having said that, I would still prefer to avoid the VC route for Novamente.
>
> I have talked to a number of VC's in recent months -- and by and large they
> want to pigeonhole us as a company that forever will be focused on whatever
> our first product is gonna be (If your first product is for instance an
> animal
> in virtual worlds then -- bingo! -- you're a virtual animal company!!)
>
> VC's in nearly all cases don't have a long time horizon, so to find an AGI
> opportunity that synergizes with their needs requires a good bit of luck...
>
> -- Ben
>
>
>  
>  This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
> To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[John G. Rose]

> From: J. Andrew Rogers [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
> 
> Why does an AGI deliverable require more than 3-4 years?  You better
> have a good answer for that, or no one will fund you.  Most people
> *don't* have a good answer for that.
> 
> 
> > Ya personally I don't like the VC model it's better to deliver
> > concrete
> > results even if they are in baby steps. BUT if the guy next to you is
> > getting massive investment THEN what route do you take? Definitely
> > boils
> > down to who's got the right software IMO.
> 
> 
> There is enough VC money for everyone with a decent business model.
> Honestly, most AGI is not a decent business model.  Otherwise
> Mentifex would be smothered in cash.  It might even keep him quiet.
> 
> Good AGI with adequate reputation would have no problem getting
> funded.  Indeed, mediocre AGI with adequate reputation routinely gets
> funded.  The problem is an absence of  both reputation and business
> credibility.  There are a lot of people with crap reputation that can
> still turn a dollar.
> 
> The reality remains that virtually all AGI projects are objectively
> crap investments, and consequently it is an uphill battle to find
> people willing to make such investments.  A track record is huge;
> proving that you have delivered on insanity in the past will have VCs
> lining up to invest in your insanity in the future.  But you have to
> have delivered at some point.
>

Any software deliverable greater than 3 to 4 years is very high risk. That
is either in selling a software deliverable to a customer or an investor.
Both are a sell but it's a matter of selling a commitment to yourself in
regards to delivery. Do you commit yourself knowingly? And a deliverable may
be just a proof-of-concept baby-step reassurance in reality so it's a matter
of which burden incurs the most liability - the investor or the customer(s),
for the long term goal of comprehensive AGI dev which may take 5 to 10
years...
 
John




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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[J. Andrew Rogers]

On Oct 18, 2007, at 11:32 PM, John G. Rose wrote:
It's really hard to sell if the deliverable time frame exceeds 3 to  
4 years.



Why does an AGI deliverable require more than 3-4 years?  You better  
have a good answer for that, or no one will fund you.  Most people  
*don't* have a good answer for that.



Ya personally I don't like the VC model it's better to deliver  
concrete

results even if they are in baby steps. BUT if the guy next to you is
getting massive investment THEN what route do you take? Definitely  
boils

down to who's got the right software IMO.



There is enough VC money for everyone with a decent business model.   
Honestly, most AGI is not a decent business model.  Otherwise  
Mentifex would be smothered in cash.  It might even keep him quiet.


Good AGI with adequate reputation would have no problem getting  
funded.  Indeed, mediocre AGI with adequate reputation routinely gets  
funded.  The problem is an absence of  both reputation and business  
credibility.  There are a lot of people with crap reputation that can  
still turn a dollar.


The reality remains that virtually all AGI projects are objectively  
crap investments, and consequently it is an uphill battle to find  
people willing to make such investments.  A track record is huge;  
proving that you have delivered on insanity in the past will have VCs  
lining up to invest in your insanity in the future.  But you have to  
have delivered at some point.


Cheers,

J. Andrew Rogers


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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[J. Andrew Rogers]

On Oct 18, 2007, at 11:00 PM, Benjamin Goertzel wrote:
I think that AGI for agent control in virtual worlds is not so  
hopeless
in terms of appealing to VC's ... there's a real market there, and  
there's
clearly a situation where more and more powerful AGI can yield more  
and

more profits...



The problem is that VCs want nominally provable profits.  AGI does  
not fall under that classification unless it is so good that you do  
not need VCs.  Mind you, I have no problems with VCs and find them  
easy to work with, but they are usually good for a certain type of  
business.  Angels are better for spec work, but less reliable and the  
dollars are smaller.



I have talked to a number of VC's in recent months -- and by and  
large they
want to pigeonhole us as a company that forever will be focused on  
whatever
our first product is gonna be (If your first product is for  
instance an animal

in virtual worlds then -- bingo! -- you're a virtual animal company!!)



Heh.  Very true.  One of the things that has reduced my annoyance  
over the years is finding VCs that have sufficient vision that I can  
work with them.  There are not many of them, but they are not  
entirely rare either.  The problem is largely if they think the  
venture is common.  You have to be something pretty special for a  
mainstream VC to invest in AGI, which means you have pulled a rabbit  
out of the hat at least once.  And "special" means having a  
conventional track record.


It has been well worth my investment in ruthless conventional  
business to develop the contacts required to fund more exotic  
ventures no questions asked.  It was a long way around, but not much  
has changed in the interim.  If people make enough money, they'll  
invest in crazy ventures.



VC's in nearly all cases don't have a long time horizon, so to find  
an AGI
opportunity that synergizes with their needs requires a good bit of  
luck...



If the AGI is any good, wouldn't the time horizon be short...?

Cheers,

J. Andrew Rogers



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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[John G. Rose]

> From: J. Andrew Rogers [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> 
> AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think
> of.  Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture
> constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on
> performance and reputation.  It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well-
> deserved.
> 
> In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for
> AGI.  Which does not suggest other finance models.
> 

It's really hard to sell if the deliverable time frame exceeds 3 to 4 years.
Ya personally I don't like the VC model it's better to deliver concrete
results even if they are in baby steps. BUT if the guy next to you is
getting massive investment THEN what route do you take? Definitely boils
down to who's got the right software IMO.

John

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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Benjamin Goertzel]

>
>
>
> AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think
> of.  Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture
> constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on
> performance and reputation.  It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well-
> deserved.
>
> In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for
> AGI.  Which does not suggest other finance models.



I think that AGI for agent control in virtual worlds is not so hopeless
in terms of appealing to VC's ... there's a real market there, and there's
clearly a situation where more and more powerful AGI can yield more and
more profits...

Having said that, I would still prefer to avoid the VC route for Novamente.

I have talked to a number of VC's in recent months -- and by and large they
want to pigeonhole us as a company that forever will be focused on whatever
our first product is gonna be (If your first product is for instance an
animal
in virtual worlds then -- bingo! -- you're a virtual animal company!!)

VC's in nearly all cases don't have a long time horizon, so to find an AGI
opportunity that synergizes with their needs requires a good bit of luck...

-- Ben

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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[J. Andrew Rogers]

On Oct 18, 2007, at 10:40 PM, John G. Rose wrote:
Well after living in Seattle during the dot com craze the hype was  
just
absolutely out of control. Yet people did get funded. Was it all  
worth it?
Hell yeah but the hangover was pretty bad :) AGI IS hypeable but  
people have

to make a conscious decision on whether to do so or not as without any
deliverables it's going to look real bad when the investors pull out.



AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think  
of.  Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture  
constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on  
performance and reputation.  It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well- 
deserved.


In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for  
AGI.  Which does not suggest other finance models.


Cheers,

J. Andrew Rogers

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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[John G. Rose]

> From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
> 
> Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution.  When you
> look at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some
> people never seem to learn of the dangers of hype.  Having been around
> for a while I've heard many individuals make a "ten years to SAI" type
> of prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong.
> 
> Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far
> inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become
> frustrated/disillusioned and funds get withdrawn).  I think people who
> are seriously interested in the technology should be more measured in
> their statements, and be honest about the degrees of uncertainty
> involved.

Well after living in Seattle during the dot com craze the hype was just
absolutely out of control. Yet people did get funded. Was it all worth it?
Hell yeah but the hangover was pretty bad :) AGI IS hypeable but people have
to make a conscious decision on whether to do so or not as without any
deliverables it's going to look real bad when the investors pull out. Soo
many of those dot com companies just went "poof" one after another it was
just amazing I'm surprised that there haven't been more books written on it.
But AI has been hyped over and over is it time for another round? The most
recent hype has been on VOIP but that has been rather dull... but hyping up
AGI? Now's probably the time - the hardware is there look at what is coming
down the pipe, the OS's are there 64 bit et al, compilers, audio video,
networking it's all prime time and only getting better I say go for it, hype
the shit out of it - with guarded and controlled optimism that is. Also you
have to think about the younger generation they deserve some time to party
up. Should we hold back a couple years? Really hard to predict as other
forces are viable and can potentially intercept

John
 

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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Edward W. Porter]

in response to Bob Mottram Thursday, October 18, 2007 1:47 PM post.





>This isn't because previous generations of AI researchers were in denial
about the amount of hardware they needed - a whiggish view of recent
history.



I have been told for years that “the problem is not hardware, its
software.”  I have probably been told that at least thirty times over at
least 22 years.



>Even if I had a machine on my desk today capable to carrying out any
arbitrarily large computation instantaneously I still wouldn't have
sufficient knowledge to be able to build a human equivalent AI.



I wouldn’t either to start, but if I had human-level hardware and was
starting with Novamente (if it is as good as it seems to be from my
limited reading) and building on that, I think I could create some very
impressive results very quickly.



>In my opinion any third world villager with a laptop and internet access
could make significant progress in AGI if they're able to conceptualise
the problem in the right way, although I realise that this is not a widely
held view.





I think there are some first world people, like Ben Goertzel, and I assume
other, who have already done a lot of very good thinking



>Unfortunately, cognitive biases may play a role when statements like this
are made.



No one is without biases.  But there are very good reasons to believe
extremely large strides can be made in the next ten years if the right
people are funded.  There has recently be a great increase in our
understanding of the problem and there will be a great increase in the
hardware.  It is hard to imagine that those two factors would not
contribute to massive increases in AGI.








Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
(617) 494-1722
Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]



-Original Message-
From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2007 1:47 PM
To: agi@v2.listbox.com
Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast




On 18/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

With regard to the fact that many people who promised to produce AI in the
past have failed -- I repeat what I have said on this list many times --
you can't do the type of computation the human brain does without at least
something within several orders of magnitude of the computational,
representational, and (importantly) interconnect capacity of the human
brain.  And to the best of my knowledge, most AI projects until very
recently have been run on hardware with roughly one 100 millionth to about
one 100,000 th such capacity.

So it is no surprise they failed.  What is surprising is that they were so
blind to the importance of hardware.


This isn't because previous generations of AI researchers were in denial
about the amount of hardware they needed - a whiggish view of recent
history.  Estimates of the computational capacity of the human brain have
always been flaky, because ultimately we still don't really know what the
essential function of a neuron is (the part which can be abstracted from
the biology).  The figures that you're giving are presumably derived from
Hans Moravec's calculations which were based upon the amount of
information your retina can process whilst observing a screen at a
distance of a few metres.  Assuming that he's right, the uncertainty
bounds which he puts on these calculations could delay human equivalent
computation by a few decades, which is a wider uncertainty margin than the
usual 5-10 years to AGI mantra.  Even so, a few decades isn't much if
you're a "Long Now" kind of person.  And of course this is all based upon
the assumption that to build a successful AGI you need enough computation
to simulate the equivalent number of neurons and their interactions.




But the hardware barrier to the creation of human-level AGI is being
removed.


I agree with this, but hardware alone is not enough.  Even if I had a
machine on my desk today capable to carrying out any arbitrarily large
computation instantaneously I still wouldn't have sufficient knowledge to
be able to build a human equivalent AI.  I think Hugo de Garis has for
some time had systems capable of evolving neural nets "at electronic
speeds", but what's missing so far is a good idea of what to do with them.



Add all these things together and I think it is clear that if a well
funded AGI initiative gave the money to the right people (not just spread
it throughout academic AI based on seniority or somebody's buddy system),
it would be almost certain that stunning strides could be made in the
power of artificial intelligence in 5 to 10 years.


Anyone remember 5th generation ?

I agree that a relatively small team of the best AI people if funded
generously and possessing a detailed AGI design over a ten year period
could make good progress, but remain skeptical ab

Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Bob Mottram]

On 18/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> With regard to the fact that many people who promised to produce AI in the
> past have failed -- I repeat what I have said on this list many times -- you
> can't do the type of computation the human brain does without at least
> something within several orders of magnitude of the computational,
> representational, and (importantly) interconnect capacity of the human
> brain.  And to the best of my knowledge, most AI projects until very
> recently have been run on hardware with roughly one 100 millionth to about
> one 100,000th such capacity.
>
> So it is no surprise they failed.  What is surprising is that they were so
> blind to the importance of hardware.
>

This isn't because previous generations of AI researchers were in denial
about the amount of hardware they needed - a whiggish view of recent
history.  Estimates of the computational capacity of the human brain have
always been flaky, because ultimately we still don't really know what the
essential function of a neuron is (the part which can be abstracted from the
biology).  The figures that you're giving are presumably derived from Hans
Moravec's calculations which were based upon the amount of information your
retina can process whilst observing a screen at a distance of a few metres.
Assuming that he's right, the uncertainty bounds which he puts on these
calculations could delay human equivalent computation by a few decades,
which is a wider uncertainty margin than the usual 5-10 years to AGI
mantra.  Even so, a few decades isn't much if you're a "Long Now" kind of
person.  And of course this is all based upon the assumption that to build a
successful AGI you need enough computation to simulate the equivalent number
of neurons and their interactions.


But the hardware barrier to the creation of human-level AGI is being
> removed.
>

I agree with this, but hardware alone is not enough.  Even if I had a
machine on my desk today capable to carrying out any arbitrarily large
computation instantaneously I still wouldn't have sufficient knowledge to be
able to build a human equivalent AI.  I think Hugo de Garis has for some
time had systems capable of evolving neural nets "at electronic speeds", but
what's missing so far is a good idea of what to do with them.

Add all these things together and I think it is clear that if a well funded
> AGI initiative gave the money to the right people (not just spread it
> throughout academic AI based on seniority or somebody's buddy system), it
> would be almost certain that stunning strides could be made in the power of
> artificial intelligence in 5 to 10 years.
>

Anyone remember 5th generation ?

I agree that a relatively small team of the best AI people if funded
generously and possessing a detailed AGI design over a ten year period could
make good progress, but remain skeptical about large scale governmental
projects or notions of throwing cash at the problem in an indiscriminate way
(which in practice is often what governments do).  Personally, I don't
believe that the problem is primarily one of funding, although funding
certainly helps.  In my opinion any third world villager with a laptop and
internet access could make significant progress in AGI if they're able to
conceptualise the problem in the right way, although I realise that this is
not a widely held view.


But the chance that such a project would create dramatic and extremely
> valuable advances in the power of artificial intelligence in all of these
> areas in 10 years – advances  that would be worth many times the $2 Billion
> dollar investment -- would be at least 99%.
>

Unfortunately, cognitive biases may play a role when statements like this
are made.

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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Edward W. Porter]

n AGI is spreading the
truth.


Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
(617) 494-1722
Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]



-Original Message-
From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2007 3:38 AM
To: agi@v2.listbox.com
Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast


Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution.  When you look
at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some people
never seem to learn of the dangers of hype.  Having been around for a
while I've heard many individuals make a "ten years to SAI" type of
prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong.

Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far
inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become frustrated/disillusioned
and funds get withdrawn).  I think people who are seriously interested in
the technology should be more measured in their statements, and be honest
about the degrees of uncertainty involved.




On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> THERE IS A REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 20 YEARS AGO.
>
> FIRST WE WILL HAVE ROUGHLY BRIAN LEVEL HARDWARE AT COMMERCIALLYH
> VIABLE PRICES IN A FEW YEARS.
>
> SECOND, MANY OF US HAVE A MUCH MORE DETAILED IDEA OF HOW TO ATTACK
> ALMOST ALL OF THE HARD PROBLEMS IN AGI.
>
> Edward W. Porter
> Porter & Associates
> 24 String Bridge S12
> Exeter, NH 03833
> (617) 494-1722
> Fax (617) 494-1822
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Richard Loosemore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:45 PM
> To: agi@v2.listbox.com
> Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
>
>
> Edward W. Porter wrote:
> > In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in
> > which British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious
> > machines by 2015 and one brighter than people by 2020.
> >
> > I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
> > furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the
> > public
>
> > in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the
> > extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this
> > list: "The race has begun."
> >
> > (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining
> > things those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but
> > is its evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on
> > subjects relating to the singularity.  Its link is
> >
> ___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;p
> f;1_
> )
>
> I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a
> workshop 20 years ago.
>
>
>
> Richard Loosemore
>
> -
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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Bob Mottram]

Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution.  When you
look at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some
people never seem to learn of the dangers of hype.  Having been around
for a while I've heard many individuals make a "ten years to SAI" type
of prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong.

Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far
inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become
frustrated/disillusioned and funds get withdrawn).  I think people who
are seriously interested in the technology should be more measured in
their statements, and be honest about the degrees of uncertainty
involved.




On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> THERE IS A REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 20 YEARS AGO.
>
> FIRST WE WILL HAVE ROUGHLY BRIAN LEVEL HARDWARE AT COMMERCIALLYH VIABLE
> PRICES IN A FEW YEARS.
>
> SECOND, MANY OF US HAVE A MUCH MORE DETAILED IDEA OF HOW TO ATTACK ALMOST
> ALL OF THE HARD PROBLEMS IN AGI.
>
> Edward W. Porter
> Porter & Associates
> 24 String Bridge S12
> Exeter, NH 03833
> (617) 494-1722
> Fax (617) 494-1822
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Richard Loosemore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:45 PM
> To: agi@v2.listbox.com
> Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
>
>
> Edward W. Porter wrote:
> > In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in
> > which
> > British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015
> > and one brighter than people by 2020.
> >
> > I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
> > furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public
>
> > in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the
> > extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this
> > list: "The race has begun."
> >
> > (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things
> > those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its
> > evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects
> > relating to the singularity.  Its link is
> >
> ___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1_
> )
>
> I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a
> workshop 20 years ago.
>
>
>
> Richard Loosemore
>
> -
> This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
> To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
> http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&;
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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Bob Mottram]

On 17/10/2007, David Orban <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> There are now Department of Labor predictions of 50%-80% unemployment
> rates due to automation of white collar jobs. This in my opinion is
> not a small matter either.


On the unemployment question I remain optimistic.  If you go back a
few hundred years 90% of the population had jobs which were in one way
or another involved with agricultural production.  Many of these jobs
were replaced by automation, especially in the last century, but this
doesn't mean that the majority of the population are now unemployed.
If the pace of change is too rapid unemployment may result, but humans
are creatures of habit and I expect long held traditions to some
extent to dampen the effects of introduction of automation.

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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Linas Vepstas]

On Thu, Oct 18, 2007 at 12:51:19AM +0200, David Orban wrote:

> Your examples are also very good. Should we then assume, that since it
> is already the case that major industry segments and corporations are
> run by software, and nobody seems to mind, that it will stay like
> that?

Good question. Its not clear that "nobody seems to mind" ... again,
look at the airlines. There were major upheavals: layoffs, strikes, 
and bankruptcy filings, just a few years ago. The proximate reason
was loss of profitability due to passenger declines coupled to
price wars.  I don't remember anyone explicitly blaming the 
automated pricing algorithms ... but that doesn't mean that 
these didn't contribute to the problem (or even lie at the
heart of the problem). 

There are psychological reasons not to blame the algos:
-- Unlike a brake failure that leads to a car crash, the 
   failure of an algo in this way is fairly invisible,
   and just not obvious to outsiders.  

   An exception might be the Long Term Capital Managemet
   partners, whose hedge fund ran up a 6 billion dollar 
   debt in a week. But even then, you didn't blame the algo,
   you blamed the stupid nobel prize winners who created 
   and ran it.

-- What else are you going to do: suggest that the airlines
   stop using computerized scheduling algos, and go back
   to doing it with pencil and paper? There's an air of
   inveitibility and finality to it all. 
   
   Its kind-of like the outsourcing of jobs: no one in the
   US likes it, almost everyone feels threatened, but what
   can you do?  Become Amish? Decry capitalism? 

   Once you start using optimization algos, you pretty 
   much cannot stop, without causing even more economic 
   damage, and nobody wants that. 

> I think that we should still think through, together with the answer
> to your question, what should our position be if there were major
> protests against systems becoming progressively, but not yet
> radically, more autonomous.

Stock market crash of 1987 was caused by automated trading systems.
There were protests, there was outrage.  The answer was to mandate 
certain protections and safety mechanisms.

Few will complain/demonstrate/protest against system automation,
at least not until there's a disaster. After the disaster, solutions
will be debated and implemented.  As long as the systems are 
perceived as non-sentient, then they will also be perceived
as being under human control, and so controllable (even if
the controlability is an illusion).

And even when there are protests: e.g. outsourcing, or trade
with mexico ... what can you do? You can demagogue, but you
can't actually change the system -- because changing the system
will cause more harm than good.

> There are now Department of Labor predictions of 50%-80% unemployment
> rates due to automation of white collar jobs. 

Ohh, where? URL?

Yeah, I think low-skill white-collar jobs will be wiped out first:
who needs product support in Bangalore if an AGI chatterbot expert 
system can do it for less?

--linas

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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Edward W. Porter]

David,

You raise an imporant issue, about the danger of backlash and the need to
plan how to prevent it, which has been discussed before on this thread.
But it is so important it should be raised again from time to time.

Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
(617) 494-1722
Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]



-Original Message-
From: David Orban [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:49 PM
To: agi@v2.listbox.com
Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast


This meta-discussion, about people's opinions about AGIs probabilities of
being realized within a given timeframe, actually is crucial. These
opinions can shape their actions towards AGI, regardless of their
correctness.

As the public is going to be more and more aware of the various scenarios
surrounding AGIs, as a concrete possibility, and not a science fiction or
futurologist dream, the turning tide will also bring with itself a the
flotsam of active resistance, towards AGIs in practice, but also AGI
theory, and research.

In this context, in my opinion, it is a fundamental task of the
Singularity Institute to formulate sharp policy recommendations, and be
ready with detailed answers to the various criticisms that will emerge.
The levels of these answers have to be both divulgative, and technical,
for different audiences. The criticism, not necessarily constructive, is
mainly going to come from those established interests in the field public
service, and industrial organizations that are likely to be disrupted by
even below-human level AGI.

During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by
Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be
run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative
change for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact
on the hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ.
(How many middle managers are already today nothing but slow and
unreliable interfaces between computer systems that would be much ore
useful if directly connected?)

The next generation of Facebook-type applications, applied to social
systems of increasing complexity, entire countries, starting maybe with
technologically friendly and not necessarily democratic ones, or just
authoritarian enough, like Malaysia or Indonesia, entire countries are
going to be managed and run by these systems as well. Not as a planned
economy, but as a flexible, bottom-up organism that achieves a very high
level of efficiency.

When Christine Petersen, again at the Summit, referred to the need of
managing the debate process in an intelligent manner, she expressed the
feeling, in my opinion based on her experience with the nanotech field,
that we must pro-actively involve in the dialog those stakeholders in
society who are not technically prepared, but who will nonetheless be
crucial in shaping the constraints of future's development.

--

David Orban
www.davidorban.com
skype davidorban
sl davidorban


On 10/17/07, Bob Mottram <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from
now.  It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI,
with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along
the way.

I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in
less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious".
Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be
proclaimed.  Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of
consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly
meaningless prediction.

Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a
major company that their views are more valuable than others working in
the same field.



On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which
British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015
and one brighter than people by 2020.

I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public
in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the
extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this list:
"The race has begun."

(The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things
those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its
evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects
relating to the singularity.  Its link is
<http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1>
http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 )


Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Brid

Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[David Orban]

> > What I find more interesting is the question of whether, if, how,
> > when, and in what way these systems might become "self-aware".

Yes, Linas, you are right, that is a very interesting, and intriguing question.

Your examples are also very good. Should we then assume, that since it
is already the case that major industry segments and corporations are
run by software, and nobody seems to mind, that it will stay like
that?

I think that we should still think through, together with the answer
to your question, what should our position be if there were major
protests against systems becoming progressively, but not yet
radically, more autonomous.

There are now Department of Labor predictions of 50%-80% unemployment
rates due to automation of white collar jobs. This in my opinion is
not a small matter either.

The stem cell research in the US, and the genetically modified food
research in the EU have both been frozen through political
intervention because of their perceived threats. Neither of these
decisions were fully informed, but very emotional.

We should analyze what are the means to make sure the same doesn't
happen to AGI research.

-- 

David Orban
www.davidorban.com
skype davidorban
sl davidorban


On 10/18/07, Linas Vepstas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Wed, Oct 17, 2007 at 10:48:31PM +0200, David Orban wrote:
> >
> > During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by
> > Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be
> > run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change
> > for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the
> > hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ.
>
> My impression is that, to a fair degree, this is already the case
> for the airline industry, and the retail/wholesale relationship.
>
> For decades, airlines have been slaves to thier pricing/scheduling
> algorithms, which figure out what to fly where and how often.
> Failure to obey the algorithm will bankrupt the airline in short
> order (witness the turmoil after 9/11, where the algo's didn't quite
> understand the changed nature of the marketplace).
>
> Similary, the movement of products through walmart and home depot
> are also controlled by "narrow AI" type data-mining, sales-forcast,
> ordering automation software. So is the loading of trucks, and the
> routes taken by trucks. Failure to follow the output of your sales
> forcast algos will likewise cause you to loose a lot of income pretty
> rapidly.
>
> Use of datamining and optimization algos will only increase.
> Manufacturing uses algos to do "just-in-time" parts ordering.
> Robots put things together, and robots wander loose in warehouses.
> Packing slips/bills of lading are automated, and so is billing,
> and accounts receivable/payable.
>
> Remember some of the Y2K fiascos? e.g. in 1995, a paint company
> computer decided that paint cans with an expiration date of
> 1/1/00 were expired, and ordered workers to dump out fresh cans
> of paint as they rolled off the assembly line?  I heard they
> actually dumped some of it, until a supervisor put a halt to it.
>
> What I find more interesting is the question of whether, if, how,
> when, and in what way these systems might become "self-aware".
>
> --linas
>
> -
> This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
> To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Linas Vepstas]

On Wed, Oct 17, 2007 at 10:48:31PM +0200, David Orban wrote:
> 
> During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by
> Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be
> run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change
> for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the
> hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ. 

My impression is that, to a fair degree, this is already the case
for the airline industry, and the retail/wholesale relationship.

For decades, airlines have been slaves to thier pricing/scheduling
algorithms, which figure out what to fly where and how often.
Failure to obey the algorithm will bankrupt the airline in short 
order (witness the turmoil after 9/11, where the algo's didn't quite
understand the changed nature of the marketplace).

Similary, the movement of products through walmart and home depot 
are also controlled by "narrow AI" type data-mining, sales-forcast,
ordering automation software. So is the loading of trucks, and the
routes taken by trucks. Failure to follow the output of your sales
forcast algos will likewise cause you to loose a lot of income pretty
rapidly.

Use of datamining and optimization algos will only increase.
Manufacturing uses algos to do "just-in-time" parts ordering. 
Robots put things together, and robots wander loose in warehouses. 
Packing slips/bills of lading are automated, and so is billing,
and accounts receivable/payable. 

Remember some of the Y2K fiascos? e.g. in 1995, a paint company 
computer decided that paint cans with an expiration date of
1/1/00 were expired, and ordered workers to dump out fresh cans 
of paint as they rolled off the assembly line?  I heard they 
actually dumped some of it, until a supervisor put a halt to it.

What I find more interesting is the question of whether, if, how,
when, and in what way these systems might become "self-aware".

--linas

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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Edward W. Porter]

THERE IS A REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 20 YEARS AGO.

FIRST WE WILL HAVE ROUGHLY BRIAN LEVEL HARDWARE AT COMMERCIALLYH VIABLE
PRICES IN A FEW YEARS.

SECOND, MANY OF US HAVE A MUCH MORE DETAILED IDEA OF HOW TO ATTACK ALMOST
ALL OF THE HARD PROBLEMS IN AGI.

Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
(617) 494-1722
Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]



-Original Message-
From: Richard Loosemore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:45 PM
To: agi@v2.listbox.com
Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast


Edward W. Porter wrote:
> In today’s KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in
> which
> British Telecom’s futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015
> and one brighter than people by 2020.
>
> I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
> furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public

> in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the
> extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this
> list: “The race has begun.”
>
> (The article isn’t really that valuable in terms of explaining things
> those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its
> evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects
> relating to the singularity.  Its link is
>
___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1_
)

I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a
workshop 20 years ago.



Richard Loosemore

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RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Edward W. Porter]

RE Bob Mottram'S post.





This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from
now.  It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI,
with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along
the way.

2015 IS NOT GUARANTEED, BUT IT IS MOST PROBABLY DOABLE IF SIGNIFICANT
MONEY IS PLOWED INTO THE FIELD.  (AND BY SIGNIFICANT MONEY WE ARE TALKING
CHUMP CHANGE TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THAT WHAT
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGY IN HUMAN HISTORY.)


 I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in
less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious".
Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be
proclaimed.  Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of
consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly
meaningless prediction.




NOT NECESSARILY GUARANTEEING IT WILL HAVE A CONSCIOUSNESS LIKE YOU AND ME
(IT MIGHT, BUT IT WOULD BE HARD TO KNOW), BUT RATHER I AM REFERRING TO A
MACHINE THAT HAS A COMPLEX SELF-REFERENTIAL VERY DYNAMIC STATE THAT HAS
MANY OF THE COMPUTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT I ASSOCIATE WITH HUMAN
CONSCIOUSNESS.


Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a
major company that their views are more valuable than others working in
the same field.


 I WASN’T SAYING THIS GUY KNOW MORE THAN PEOPLE ON THIS LIST.  I WAS
REFERRING TO THE FACT THAT HE HAS A LABEL “FUTUROLOGIST OF BRITISH
TELECOM” THAT MAKES HIM SEEM MORE CREDIBLE TO THE AVERAGE READER THAN ANY
LABEL MOST OF THE PEOPLE ON THIS LIST HAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THEIR NAME.


 I WAS ALSO, ASSUMING THAT THIS GUY PROBABLY WANTS TO KEEP HIS JOB, SINCE
IT SEEMS LIKE A JOB MANY PEOPLE WOULD KILL FOR, AND THUS HIS MAKING THIS
STATEMENT INDICATES HIS BELIEF THAT IT WILL NOT DISPLEASE HIS EMPLOYER,
WHICH IS A MAJOR TECHNOLOGY COMPANY.


 THUS, THIS ARTICLE REPRESENTS EVIDENCE THAT STATEMENTS THAT AGI’S WITH
HUMAN OR SUPER-HUMAN INTELLEGENCE ARE COMING WITHIN ROUGHLY A DECADE ARE
INCREASINGLY LESS LIKELY TO BE DISMISSED AS CRAZY, AS HAVE MOST OF MY
STATEMENTS ABOUT AI FOR THE LAST 37 YEARS.


Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
(617) 494-1722
Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]



-Original Message-
From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 1:11 PM
To: agi@v2.listbox.com
Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast


This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from
now.  It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI,
with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along
the way.

I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in
less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious".
Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be
proclaimed.  Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of
consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly
meaningless prediction.

Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a
major company that their views are more valuable than others working in
the same field.



On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which
British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015
and one brighter than people by 2020.

I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public
in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the
extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this list:
"The race has begun."

(The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things
those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its
evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects
relating to the singularity.  Its link is
<http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1>
http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 )


Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
  










 (617) 494-1722

Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[David Orban]

This meta-discussion, about people's opinions about AGIs probabilities of
being realized within a given timeframe, actually is crucial. These opinions
can shape their actions towards AGI, regardless of their correctness.

As the public is going to be more and more aware of the various scenarios
surrounding AGIs, as a concrete possibility, and not a science fiction or
futurologist dream, the turning tide will also bring with itself a the
flotsam of active resistance, towards AGIs in practice, but also AGI theory,
and research.

In this context, in my opinion, it is a fundamental task of the Singularity
Institute to formulate sharp policy recommendations, and be ready with
detailed answers to the various criticisms that will emerge. The levels of
these answers have to be both divulgative, and technical, for different
audiences. The criticism, not necessarily constructive, is mainly going to
come from those established interests in the field public service, and
industrial organizations that are likely to be disrupted by even below-human
level AGI.

During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by
Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be
run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change
for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the
hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ. (How many
middle managers are already today nothing but slow and unreliable interfaces
between computer systems that would be much ore useful if directly
connected?)

The next generation of Facebook-type applications, applied to social systems
of increasing complexity, entire countries, starting maybe with
technologically friendly and not necessarily democratic ones, or just
authoritarian enough, like Malaysia or Indonesia, entire countries are going
to be managed and run by these systems as well. Not as a planned economy,
but as a flexible, bottom-up organism that achieves a very high level of
efficiency.

When Christine Petersen, again at the Summit, referred to the need of
managing the debate process in an intelligent manner, she expressed the
feeling, in my opinion based on her experience with the nanotech field, that
we must pro-actively involve in the dialog those stakeholders in society who
are not technically prepared, but who will nonetheless be crucial in shaping
the constraints of future's development.

-- 

David Orban
www.davidorban.com
skype davidorban
sl davidorban

On 10/17/07, Bob Mottram <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from
> now.  It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI,
> with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the
> way.
>
> I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in
> less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious".
> Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be
> proclaimed.  Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of
> consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly
> meaningless prediction.
>
> Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a
> major company that their views are more valuable than others working in the
> same field.
>
>
> On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> >  In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which
> > British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and
> > one brighter than people by 2020.
> >
> > I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
> > furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in
> > his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to
> > which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this list: "The race
> > has begun."
> >
> > (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things
> > those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence
> > of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the
> > singularity.  Its link is 
> > ***http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1
> > *)
> >
> > Edward W. Porter
> > Porter & Associates
> > 24 String Bridge S12
> > Exeter, NH 03833
> >  (617) 494-1722
> > Fax (617) 494-1822
> > [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > --
> > This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
> > To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
> > http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&;
> >
>
> --
> This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
> To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Richard Loosemore]

Edward W. Porter wrote:
In today’s KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which 
British Telecom’s futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 
and one brighter than people by 2020. 

I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a 
furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public 
in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the 
extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this 
list: “The race has begun.”


(The article isn’t really that valuable in terms of explaining things 
those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its 
evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects 
relating to the singularity.  Its link is 
___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1_ )


I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a 
workshop 20 years ago.




Richard Loosemore

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Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Bob Mottram]

This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from
now.  It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI,
with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the
way.

I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in
less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by "conscious".
Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be
proclaimed.  Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of
consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly
meaningless prediction.

Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a major
company that their views are more valuable than others working in the same
field.


On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>  In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which
> British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and
> one brighter than people by 2020.
>
> I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
> furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in
> his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to
> which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this list: "The race
> has begun."
>
> (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things
> those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence
> of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the
> singularity.  Its link is ***
> http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1*)
>
> Edward W. Porter
> Porter & Associates
> 24 String Bridge S12
> Exeter, NH 03833
> (617) 494-1722
> Fax (617) 494-1822
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> --
> This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email
> To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to:
> http://v2.listbox.com/member/?&;
>

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[agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast

[Edward W. Porter]

In today’s KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which
British Telecom’s futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015
and one brighter than people by 2020.

I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a
furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public
in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the
extent to which the tide is turning.  As I have said before on this list:
“The race has begun.”

(The article isn’t really that valuable in terms of explaining things
those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its
evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects
relating to the singularity.  Its link is
http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 )


Edward W. Porter
Porter & Associates
24 String Bridge S12
Exeter, NH 03833
(617) 494-1722
Fax (617) 494-1822
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

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