Re: [android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Mark Carter]

I've got a 92% piracy rate on one of my apps. The version being passed
around is 1.0.6.

How about releasing an update using an earlier version number (e.g. 1.0.1).
Legitimate users probably wouldn't notice/care. However, it would be very
confusing on pirate sites where the version number is more important.

Would this help?

On 31 August 2010 18:05:40 UTC+2, Mark Carter wrote:

> Would be good if devs could specify refund policy on app-by-app basis.
>
>
> On 31 August 2010 17:58, Samuel Lawson  wrote:
>
>> Here is a suggestion for Google.
>>
>> Pirates have very clear buying patterns. Most can be spotted easily.
>>
>> Analyse the market for buyers who repeatedly buy apps and then get a
>> refund in under 5 minutes. Then block those users.
>>
>> I can see these guys normally pirate 2 of my apps in the space of 5
>> minutes. The guys who do pirate both apps in quick succession really
>> stand out.
>>
>> If i were to compare my pirate data with that of other developers i am
>> sure we could make a nice ranking of "Top pirates" this week, month or
>> year...
>>
>> Since Google has all the data, why not do this behind the scenes...
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Aug 31, 2010 at 6:03 PM, Zsolt Vasvari 
>> wrote:
>> >> Back to the main topic, the data does not show that "piracy is indeed a
>> >> significant problem", but shows that many non-paying users are using
>> your
>> >> app. The big question is would they have paid for your had they not
>> been
>> >> able to get hold of the pirate version. That's a very difficult
>> question to
>> >> answer.
>> >
>> > I think it's hugely dependent on the app.  If you think a functionally
>> > simple app like Screebl, which basically either works or doesn't work,
>> > a pirated copy is as good as a legitamate one.
>> >
>> > If you take a more complex app like mine, which is a personal finance
>> > package, you may need support and new features.  In my 500 paid
>> > downloads, I'd consider 3% pirated, which I define by getting it
>> > refunded within 20 mins.  While 500 downloads is not 10,000 like
>> > Screebl, I think it's still a significant sample.  I record the names
>> > of all refunds and mark the "pirates" as well.  I get questions and
>> > feature requests all the time, but I've yet to see a non-legitimate
>> > user ask for help.  I think it's one thing to pirate, another to have
>> > the nerve to ask the developer for support.  I believe, if it comes to
>> > that one of these users need help, they would probably just buy the
>> > app.
>> >
>> > --
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>
>

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Re: [android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Mark Carter]

Would be good if devs could specify refund policy on app-by-app basis.

On 31 August 2010 17:58, Samuel Lawson  wrote:

> Here is a suggestion for Google.
>
> Pirates have very clear buying patterns. Most can be spotted easily.
>
> Analyse the market for buyers who repeatedly buy apps and then get a
> refund in under 5 minutes. Then block those users.
>
> I can see these guys normally pirate 2 of my apps in the space of 5
> minutes. The guys who do pirate both apps in quick succession really
> stand out.
>
> If i were to compare my pirate data with that of other developers i am
> sure we could make a nice ranking of "Top pirates" this week, month or
> year...
>
> Since Google has all the data, why not do this behind the scenes...
>
>
>
> On Tue, Aug 31, 2010 at 6:03 PM, Zsolt Vasvari  wrote:
> >> Back to the main topic, the data does not show that "piracy is indeed a
> >> significant problem", but shows that many non-paying users are using
> your
> >> app. The big question is would they have paid for your had they not been
> >> able to get hold of the pirate version. That's a very difficult question
> to
> >> answer.
> >
> > I think it's hugely dependent on the app.  If you think a functionally
> > simple app like Screebl, which basically either works or doesn't work,
> > a pirated copy is as good as a legitamate one.
> >
> > If you take a more complex app like mine, which is a personal finance
> > package, you may need support and new features.  In my 500 paid
> > downloads, I'd consider 3% pirated, which I define by getting it
> > refunded within 20 mins.  While 500 downloads is not 10,000 like
> > Screebl, I think it's still a significant sample.  I record the names
> > of all refunds and mark the "pirates" as well.  I get questions and
> > feature requests all the time, but I've yet to see a non-legitimate
> > user ask for help.  I think it's one thing to pirate, another to have
> > the nerve to ask the developer for support.  I believe, if it comes to
> > that one of these users need help, they would probably just buy the
> > app.
> >
> > --
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> > Groups "Android Developers" group.
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Re: [android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Samuel Lawson]

Here is a suggestion for Google.

Pirates have very clear buying patterns. Most can be spotted easily.

Analyse the market for buyers who repeatedly buy apps and then get a
refund in under 5 minutes. Then block those users.

I can see these guys normally pirate 2 of my apps in the space of 5
minutes. The guys who do pirate both apps in quick succession really
stand out.

If i were to compare my pirate data with that of other developers i am
sure we could make a nice ranking of "Top pirates" this week, month or
year...

Since Google has all the data, why not do this behind the scenes...



On Tue, Aug 31, 2010 at 6:03 PM, Zsolt Vasvari  wrote:
>> Back to the main topic, the data does not show that "piracy is indeed a
>> significant problem", but shows that many non-paying users are using your
>> app. The big question is would they have paid for your had they not been
>> able to get hold of the pirate version. That's a very difficult question to
>> answer.
>
> I think it's hugely dependent on the app.  If you think a functionally
> simple app like Screebl, which basically either works or doesn't work,
> a pirated copy is as good as a legitamate one.
>
> If you take a more complex app like mine, which is a personal finance
> package, you may need support and new features.  In my 500 paid
> downloads, I'd consider 3% pirated, which I define by getting it
> refunded within 20 mins.  While 500 downloads is not 10,000 like
> Screebl, I think it's still a significant sample.  I record the names
> of all refunds and mark the "pirates" as well.  I get questions and
> feature requests all the time, but I've yet to see a non-legitimate
> user ask for help.  I think it's one thing to pirate, another to have
> the nerve to ask the developer for support.  I believe, if it comes to
> that one of these users need help, they would probably just buy the
> app.
>
> --
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> Groups "Android Developers" group.
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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Zsolt Vasvari]

> Back to the main topic, the data does not show that "piracy is indeed a
> significant problem", but shows that many non-paying users are using your
> app. The big question is would they have paid for your had they not been
> able to get hold of the pirate version. That's a very difficult question to
> answer.

I think it's hugely dependent on the app.  If you think a functionally
simple app like Screebl, which basically either works or doesn't work,
a pirated copy is as good as a legitamate one.

If you take a more complex app like mine, which is a personal finance
package, you may need support and new features.  In my 500 paid
downloads, I'd consider 3% pirated, which I define by getting it
refunded within 20 mins.  While 500 downloads is not 10,000 like
Screebl, I think it's still a significant sample.  I record the names
of all refunds and mark the "pirates" as well.  I get questions and
feature requests all the time, but I've yet to see a non-legitimate
user ask for help.  I think it's one thing to pirate, another to have
the nerve to ask the developer for support.  I believe, if it comes to
that one of these users need help, they would probably just buy the
app.

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Re: [android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Mark Carter]

As a side note, I'm amazed at your conversion rate from Lite to Pro. I have
50% as many Lite downloads but only 5% as many Pro downloads. My Lite
version gets a 4.5 rating, Pro gets 4.9. Looks like I need to look into
those Video and Social Sharing strategies.

Currently I just pop up a dialog box "advert" every so often (with a link
into the Market). Looks like that's not enough.

Thanks for the tips.

Back to the main topic, the data does not show that "piracy is indeed a
significant problem", but shows that many non-paying users are using your
app. The big question is would they have paid for your had they not been
able to get hold of the pirate version. That's a very difficult question to
answer.

On 30 August 2010 20:59, keyeslabs  wrote:

> I've been overwhelmed with responses to this article over the past few
> days.  Let me just say a few things generally about the "study", the
> results, and the conclusions that one can draw.
>
> 1. This study obviously isn't scientific.  It's better than anecdotal
> and intuition to be sure, but it's not scientific.  It seems that many
> (not all) news outlets ran with this as definitive proof of something
> or another.  It's clearly not.  I will say that it DOES reflect
> reality as I've experienced it as an Android developer.  Much more
> than 2/3 of the installs of my app are pirated.  That is reality.
>
> 2. I have no vendetta against any particular country.  I in fact do
> NOT believe that Australia is "an oversized island full of criminals"
> as one rather unpleasant message accused me.  I've received a large
> number of emails (some that are fairly nasty) trying to imply that I
> somehow dislike this country or that.  I stated my assumptions and my
> method as clearly as I could, and I welcome similar studies that use
> better methods or models and a bigger data set.  I would be very
> interested to see more along these lines.
>
> 3. My app, Screebl Pro, follows a pattern very similar to many fairly
> successful apps on Android Market.  My lite versions is VERY
> functional, with the Pro version providing only a few select advanced
> features beyond Lite.  Lite has about 150,000 downloads, and Pro just
> over 10,000, with both having approval ratings of 4.5 stars.  My paid
> app has fairly high visibility in the market (been hovering near the
> top 25 in its category and top 100 overall for months).  I use viral
> marketing from my Lite to Pro version, and in fact pioneered some of
> the techniques used by many apps now including embedding a video feed
> in the Lite version, including social sharing features, etc.  I think
> the points raised in this thread about utility apps having different
> "piracy profiles" is likely very valid, but I have no data to support
> that assertion.
>
> 4. As for the statistical validity of my charts, there are many
> complaints that have merit.  In the end I chose to not filter and just
> include everything from the 90-day span.  Obviously, however, country
> samples that include only 5 installs are not going to be
> representative of the purchasing habits of the entire country.
>
> 5. Data corruption is possible.  I have no real way of evaluating
> that, unless one considers that the corruption occurred as part of my
> own collection, although I doubt this as I used very simple
> techniques.  Also the results for the larger data sets (U.S. and UK)
> are in line with previous samples that I've done on piracy of my app.
> As I pointed out in my article, I use Flurry and Google Checkout.  I
> made no attempt to filter that data or scrub it.  Flurry at least
> attempts to track "unique users", and Google Checkout obviously tracks
> purchases uniquely.
>
> I'm all in on Android.  I want the platform to succeed, and I am
> invested in its success.  I did this study to convince myself and
> others (that actually have the influence and ability to affect change
> in the platform) that piracy is indeed a significant problem for me
> and my app.  I would welcome others that question my data, technique,
> or motives and also have access to similar raw data to perform their
> own tests.  It was fairly easy to do (took me a total of a couple
> hours), and anyone that has flurry or the likes installed on a paid
> app should be able to do the same.
>
> Dave
>
> On Aug 28, 1:58 am, gosh  wrote:
> > Hi Dave,
> >
> > Thanks for the stats - as disconcerting as they are.
> >
> > As an Australian software developer I was very disappointed to see
> > Australia up top in the percentages on your scale of software pirates,
> > wrt to your app - which I find hard to explain, subjectively or
> > otherwise.
> >
> > I'll make a few points though (I'm assuming your figures are for your
> > utility 'Screebl Pro', via your link):
> >
> > * Having some background in data analysis, I don't consider sample
> > sizes under 300 to be statistically significant - which leaves you
> > with 4 rows of data at this stage.
> >
> > * Going on your app, the US is the o

[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[keyeslabs]

I've been overwhelmed with responses to this article over the past few
days.  Let me just say a few things generally about the "study", the
results, and the conclusions that one can draw.

1. This study obviously isn't scientific.  It's better than anecdotal
and intuition to be sure, but it's not scientific.  It seems that many
(not all) news outlets ran with this as definitive proof of something
or another.  It's clearly not.  I will say that it DOES reflect
reality as I've experienced it as an Android developer.  Much more
than 2/3 of the installs of my app are pirated.  That is reality.

2. I have no vendetta against any particular country.  I in fact do
NOT believe that Australia is "an oversized island full of criminals"
as one rather unpleasant message accused me.  I've received a large
number of emails (some that are fairly nasty) trying to imply that I
somehow dislike this country or that.  I stated my assumptions and my
method as clearly as I could, and I welcome similar studies that use
better methods or models and a bigger data set.  I would be very
interested to see more along these lines.

3. My app, Screebl Pro, follows a pattern very similar to many fairly
successful apps on Android Market.  My lite versions is VERY
functional, with the Pro version providing only a few select advanced
features beyond Lite.  Lite has about 150,000 downloads, and Pro just
over 10,000, with both having approval ratings of 4.5 stars.  My paid
app has fairly high visibility in the market (been hovering near the
top 25 in its category and top 100 overall for months).  I use viral
marketing from my Lite to Pro version, and in fact pioneered some of
the techniques used by many apps now including embedding a video feed
in the Lite version, including social sharing features, etc.  I think
the points raised in this thread about utility apps having different
"piracy profiles" is likely very valid, but I have no data to support
that assertion.

4. As for the statistical validity of my charts, there are many
complaints that have merit.  In the end I chose to not filter and just
include everything from the 90-day span.  Obviously, however, country
samples that include only 5 installs are not going to be
representative of the purchasing habits of the entire country.

5. Data corruption is possible.  I have no real way of evaluating
that, unless one considers that the corruption occurred as part of my
own collection, although I doubt this as I used very simple
techniques.  Also the results for the larger data sets (U.S. and UK)
are in line with previous samples that I've done on piracy of my app.
As I pointed out in my article, I use Flurry and Google Checkout.  I
made no attempt to filter that data or scrub it.  Flurry at least
attempts to track "unique users", and Google Checkout obviously tracks
purchases uniquely.

I'm all in on Android.  I want the platform to succeed, and I am
invested in its success.  I did this study to convince myself and
others (that actually have the influence and ability to affect change
in the platform) that piracy is indeed a significant problem for me
and my app.  I would welcome others that question my data, technique,
or motives and also have access to similar raw data to perform their
own tests.  It was fairly easy to do (took me a total of a couple
hours), and anyone that has flurry or the likes installed on a paid
app should be able to do the same.

Dave

On Aug 28, 1:58 am, gosh  wrote:
> Hi Dave,
>
> Thanks for the stats - as disconcerting as they are.
>
> As an Australian software developer I was very disappointed to see
> Australia up top in the percentages on your scale of software pirates,
> wrt to your app - which I find hard to explain, subjectively or
> otherwise.
>
> I'll make a few points though (I'm assuming your figures are for your
> utility 'Screebl Pro', via your link):
>
> * Having some background in data analysis, I don't consider sample
> sizes under 300 to be statistically significant - which leaves you
> with 4 rows of data at this stage.
>
> * Going on your app, the US is the only place where Android is a big
> success thus far -  I do know that 'utility' programs are a bit
> 'techie' for most regular phone users, but I'm thinking percentages
> here.
>
> * Android phones are fairly few on the ground in Australia (in my
> limited experience with other Android owners - other owners have been
> either software developers/publishers or university students, many of
> whom are from overseas - many/most countries). That said, since the
> 'main' telco here (Telstra) began selling Android phones here in April
> 2010, some regular folk/mums-and-dads are now starting to buy them….
> i.e. The fact that australia is 4th in your list of overall downloads
> is very surprising to me, given the great lack of Google/Android-phone
> focus upon Australia - I thought it would be down around the NZ
> figures. Note: Most ads I've seen for Android phones here do 'not'
> even mention 'Androi

[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Sam]

Hi Zslot

A pirated app install is any installation that has not been paid for.

In your case those pirates quickly buying, copying and then getting a
refund - may well be posting on websites where others download.

So if you see some obvious copying - those copies are then going out
to thousands of others via pirate websites..

I have a question for Google - why not make some attempt to block the
comment spamming on the android market.

The spammy comments list pirate websites, how hard can it be to block
URLs? you do it on youtube right :)

It really looks like you're not trying, help us devs out a bit...




On Aug 30, 7:19 pm, Zsolt Vasvari  wrote:
> In my app, which has an about 3% piracy rate (Pirate == Person who
> uninstall is < 20 mins).  None of whom are from Australia, even though
> I have about 10 Australian paid users.  So by your stat, I'd expect to
> see 9 of those guys (gals) to be pirates.

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Zsolt Vasvari]

In my app, which has an about 3% piracy rate (Pirate == Person who
uninstall is < 20 mins).  None of whom are from Australia, even though
I have about 10 Australian paid users.  So by your stat, I'd expect to
see 9 of those guys (gals) to be pirates.

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Bob Kerns]

Someone else already pointed to the possibility that your app was
included in some pirate bundle that raised the number of pirated
copies.

I'd like to touch on some other possibilities:

* Your data is corrupt somehow.
** For example, people from China using proxies in Australia to bypass
local restrictions.
** Or your data collection could be buggy somehow.
*** I see Flurry data claiming installs worldwide for versions that
have never left my development machine! I think there may be some
background noise in their data collection that distorts small numbers
of installs.

* Your marketing efforts are failing in Australia somehow.

* You have strong local competition in  Australia.

* The pirate installs are from people who have no access to the market
-- gray-market phones of some sort.

* Your application is buried in the market, and people aren't finding
it -- but it is highly visible on the pirate site.

Bottom line: The conclusions you can draw from this data are limited.
(Unfortunately -- but it's still better than no data!) I would
certainly not jump to the conclusion that piracy is endemic in
Australia. 26 legitimate installs is doing pretty well there, by
comparison to the UK and US, under the circumstances -- but it is also
a very small number.  This suggests to me that the anomaly here is not
the percentage, but the surprisingly high number of "pirate" installs.
Something is driving this number up, but it does not look to me like
it is people opting for piracy over purchase. The interesting,
unanswered question would be "what is that?"

My suggestion: Go viral, to leverage the phenomenon to your advantage.
Include features in the app to encourage people to share links to your
app on the market and your website, via SMS, email, Facebook, Twitter,
and whatever else they may have installed. I include the following
Share menu item in my code:

Intent intent = new Intent(Intent.ACTION_SEND);
intent.putExtra(Intent.EXTRA_SUBJECT,
getString(R.string.share_subject));
intent.putExtra(Intent.EXTRA_TEXT,
getString(R.string.share_body));
intent.setType("text/plain");
intent = createChooser(intent,
getString(R.string.share_chooser_title));
context.startActivity(intent);
return true;

My message includes a URL on our website, that redirects to the market
if you're on a device, and otherwise to a suitable landing page on our
site.

(Hmm, I haven't checked the click-through rate -- collecting that data
was one reason for doing it this way).

Of course, stopping piracy is good. But the ones you don't stop, at
least try to turn them into your salesbot army!


On Aug 26, 2:15 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
> Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the
> highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were
> elsewhere.  For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about
> 70%, but Australia is more like 92%.  For the countries where apps may
> be purchased, here's the breakdown:
>
> Country Purchases       Installs        Pirated Installs        Piracy Rate
> Australia       26      321     295     92%
> Austria 6       13      7       54%
> Canada  25      96      71      74%
> France  23      104     81      78%
> Germany 38      161     123     76%
> Italy   4       36      32      89%
> Japan   467     467     0       0%
> Netherlands     24      98      74      76%
> New Zealand     4       8       4       50%
> Spain   7       63      56      89%
> Switzerland     7       21      14      67%
> United Kingdom  108     335     227     68%
> United States   2051    6105    4054    66%
>
> The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate
> is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made...
>
> Dave
>
> On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20  wrote:
>
>
>
> > Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make assumptions
> > about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results
> > found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries
> > where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap
> > *sses :)
>
> > -niko
>
> > On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
>
> > > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.  Found
> > > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> > > members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
>
> > > Dave

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Nicolas Thibaut]

hi keylabs:

1 - did you have used a "unique users" feature for your stats ?
because while user is not registered, you AAL will push a flurry
event.
if the user never register it will send an event each time he use the
app, so the pirated app will grow indefinitely.
 wrote:
> I am completely surprised at some of the responses here... but I am
> not at all surprised with your results. I have been selling software
> for over 10 years before I started developing Android apps and my
> experience has been that the US always represents the highest amount
> of piracy. Your "culture of piracy" label is absolutely deserved. The
> sense of entitlement that people here have always amazes me and
> that spans everyone from developers to consumers. They want everything
> for free and everything done for them... Piracy aside, after releasing
> free applications on the Android market and seeing the absolute
> stupidity of the majority of comments and that same sense of
> entitlement that I alluded to... I stopped releasing free apps... I
> wrote my own anti-piracy measures (note how Astro does it with
> expiring updates...) and I ignore stupid comments from users and
> fellow developers.
>
> Android Workz
>
> On Aug 26, 4:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
>
>
>
> > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.  Found
> > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> > members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
>
> > Dave

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[nation-x]

I am completely surprised at some of the responses here... but I am
not at all surprised with your results. I have been selling software
for over 10 years before I started developing Android apps and my
experience has been that the US always represents the highest amount
of piracy. Your "culture of piracy" label is absolutely deserved. The
sense of entitlement that people here have always amazes me and
that spans everyone from developers to consumers. They want everything
for free and everything done for them... Piracy aside, after releasing
free applications on the Android market and seeing the absolute
stupidity of the majority of comments and that same sense of
entitlement that I alluded to... I stopped releasing free apps... I
wrote my own anti-piracy measures (note how Astro does it with
expiring updates...) and I ignore stupid comments from users and
fellow developers.

Android Workz

On Aug 26, 4:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
> Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.  Found
> some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
>
> Dave

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Sam]

Let me give you a scenario that i really DOUBT is happening:

1) Users have Screebl lite installed and then decide they really like
it.
2) They then decide to upgrade and get Screebl Pro.
3) Rather than just pick it up off the market (easy) - they scour the
internet looking for it to save a few dollars...

This seems too far fetched for me. Yes for techies this may be "easy"
but for average Joe finding an app and installing it is not easy!

More likely the high piracy rate is due to it being featured on pirate
websites in "bundled packs". In that case you are not losing these
sales, these are sales that were never going to happen.

Just my opinion.

regards

Sam



On Aug 28, 9:58 pm, Mark Carter  wrote:
> Haven't checked recently but for a while Flurry was (for some reason)
> reporting Chinese users as Australian.
>
> On 28 August 2010 15:40, gosh  wrote:
>
>
>
> > Looking at your numbers again, your 'total installs' for Australia
> > seem way out-of-whack with the rest of the countries listed, i.e.:
>
> > * Take the UK versus Australia figures, your total installs are: UK=
> > 335, Australia=321
> > * There are about 60 million people in the UK, and only 22 million in
> > Australia. Both countries speak a form of English as their primary
> > language, discounting the disproportionate uptake as a UI issue in
> > your app.
> > * Google has allowed app sales and app purchases in both the UK and
> > the US before all other countries globally (Feb 2009). It has allowed
> > 'purchases' in Australia only since Oct'2009, and still doesn't allow
> > 'sales' today.
> > * Google has had multiple Android developer/code/lab-days in the UK
> > (i.e. platform evangelism and market building momentum), while the
> > closest they ever got to Australia with one was Singapore (which is
> > not very close)… i.e. Google is Australia-averse. In fact, southern
> > hemisphere averse. For a company that sells globes and maps, it
> > doesn't seem to be able to peer over its own equators. Its much more
> > likely that Google will allow app sales from Afghanistan before they
> > do so in Australia. Android numbers in Australia reflect that Google
> > apathy.
> > * Google and the Android-brand have been totally 'unfocused'/blurred
> > wrt Australia as a market … the only place you see 'Google' in
> > Australia, is in a browser window. If you phone them, you don't get
> > past the front-desk staff. If you email them, nothing comes back. If
> > your write to them, nothing gets returned. It all disappears into a
> > big white rectangle. It reminds me of the public service in the 1980s,
> > before office PC productivity. They process all their accounting/sales
> > data and dollars from Australia through their Ireland office… while
> > its true that the Australian population was once 75% Irish, that was a
> > long time ago (in the early 1800s).
> > * Telstra, the major Australian telco (previously, a government-owned
> > monopoly, still with nation-wide mobile coverage), only started
> > selling an Android phone in April 2010 - just a few months ago.
> > Vodafone Aust. Ltd. has sold one for a while longer - but they are a
> > much much smaller company, with much less coverage nationally, and
> > they only sell it via high-end phone plans.
> > * I'm yet to meet (or even see) a person on the street (outside the IT
> > world) that actually has an Android phone.
>
> > In summary, both your published piracy rate for Australia, and also
> > your actual 'total number of installs' for Australia, are 'far from
> > representative' IMHO. I suggest to you that there is something very
> > odd going on there with your app installs (supposedly) coming from
> > Australia?
>
> > Cheers
> > Steve
>
> > On Aug 27, 7:15 am, keyeslabs  wrote:
> > > Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the
> > > highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were
> > > elsewhere.  For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about
> > > 70%, but Australia is more like 92%.  For the countries where apps may
> > > be purchased, here's the breakdown:
>
> > > Country Purchases       Installs        Pirated Installs        Piracy
> > Rate
> > > Australia       26      321     295     92%
> > > Austria 6       13      7       54%
> > > Canada  25      96      71      74%
> > > France  23      104     81      78%
> > > Germany 38      161     123     76%
> > > Italy   4       36      32      89%
> > > Japan   467     467     0       0%
> > > Netherlands     24      98      74      76%
> > > New Zealand     4       8       4       50%
> > > Spain   7       63      56      89%
> > > Switzerland     7       21      14      67%
> > > United Kingdom  108     335     227     68%
> > > United States   2051    6105    4054    66%
>
> > > The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate
> > > is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made...
>
> > > Dave
>
> > > On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20  wrote:
>
> > > > Excellent

Re: [android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Mark Carter]

Haven't checked recently but for a while Flurry was (for some reason)
reporting Chinese users as Australian.

On 28 August 2010 15:40, gosh  wrote:

> Looking at your numbers again, your 'total installs' for Australia
> seem way out-of-whack with the rest of the countries listed, i.e.:
>
> * Take the UK versus Australia figures, your total installs are: UK=
> 335, Australia=321
> * There are about 60 million people in the UK, and only 22 million in
> Australia. Both countries speak a form of English as their primary
> language, discounting the disproportionate uptake as a UI issue in
> your app.
> * Google has allowed app sales and app purchases in both the UK and
> the US before all other countries globally (Feb 2009). It has allowed
> 'purchases' in Australia only since Oct'2009, and still doesn't allow
> 'sales' today.
> * Google has had multiple Android developer/code/lab-days in the UK
> (i.e. platform evangelism and market building momentum), while the
> closest they ever got to Australia with one was Singapore (which is
> not very close)… i.e. Google is Australia-averse. In fact, southern
> hemisphere averse. For a company that sells globes and maps, it
> doesn't seem to be able to peer over its own equators. Its much more
> likely that Google will allow app sales from Afghanistan before they
> do so in Australia. Android numbers in Australia reflect that Google
> apathy.
> * Google and the Android-brand have been totally 'unfocused'/blurred
> wrt Australia as a market … the only place you see 'Google' in
> Australia, is in a browser window. If you phone them, you don't get
> past the front-desk staff. If you email them, nothing comes back. If
> your write to them, nothing gets returned. It all disappears into a
> big white rectangle. It reminds me of the public service in the 1980s,
> before office PC productivity. They process all their accounting/sales
> data and dollars from Australia through their Ireland office… while
> its true that the Australian population was once 75% Irish, that was a
> long time ago (in the early 1800s).
> * Telstra, the major Australian telco (previously, a government-owned
> monopoly, still with nation-wide mobile coverage), only started
> selling an Android phone in April 2010 - just a few months ago.
> Vodafone Aust. Ltd. has sold one for a while longer - but they are a
> much much smaller company, with much less coverage nationally, and
> they only sell it via high-end phone plans.
> * I'm yet to meet (or even see) a person on the street (outside the IT
> world) that actually has an Android phone.
>
> In summary, both your published piracy rate for Australia, and also
> your actual 'total number of installs' for Australia, are 'far from
> representative' IMHO. I suggest to you that there is something very
> odd going on there with your app installs (supposedly) coming from
> Australia?
>
> Cheers
> Steve
>
> On Aug 27, 7:15 am, keyeslabs  wrote:
> > Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the
> > highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were
> > elsewhere.  For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about
> > 70%, but Australia is more like 92%.  For the countries where apps may
> > be purchased, here's the breakdown:
> >
> > Country Purchases   InstallsPirated InstallsPiracy
> Rate
> > Australia   26  321 295 92%
> > Austria 6   13  7   54%
> > Canada  25  96  71  74%
> > France  23  104 81  78%
> > Germany 38  161 123 76%
> > Italy   4   36  32  89%
> > Japan   467 467 0   0%
> > Netherlands 24  98  74  76%
> > New Zealand 4   8   4   50%
> > Spain   7   63  56  89%
> > Switzerland 7   21  14  67%
> > United Kingdom  108 335 227 68%
> > United States   20516105405466%
> >
> > The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate
> > is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made...
> >
> > Dave
> >
> > On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20  wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > > Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make assumptions
> > > about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results
> > > found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries
> > > where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap
> > > *sses :)
> >
> > > -niko
> >
> > > On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
> >
> > > > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.
>  Found
> > > > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> > > > members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
> >
> > > > Dave
>
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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[gosh]

Looking at your numbers again, your 'total installs' for Australia
seem way out-of-whack with the rest of the countries listed, i.e.:

* Take the UK versus Australia figures, your total installs are: UK=
335, Australia=321
* There are about 60 million people in the UK, and only 22 million in
Australia. Both countries speak a form of English as their primary
language, discounting the disproportionate uptake as a UI issue in
your app.
* Google has allowed app sales and app purchases in both the UK and
the US before all other countries globally (Feb 2009). It has allowed
'purchases' in Australia only since Oct'2009, and still doesn't allow
'sales' today.
* Google has had multiple Android developer/code/lab-days in the UK
(i.e. platform evangelism and market building momentum), while the
closest they ever got to Australia with one was Singapore (which is
not very close)… i.e. Google is Australia-averse. In fact, southern
hemisphere averse. For a company that sells globes and maps, it
doesn't seem to be able to peer over its own equators. Its much more
likely that Google will allow app sales from Afghanistan before they
do so in Australia. Android numbers in Australia reflect that Google
apathy.
* Google and the Android-brand have been totally 'unfocused'/blurred
wrt Australia as a market … the only place you see 'Google' in
Australia, is in a browser window. If you phone them, you don't get
past the front-desk staff. If you email them, nothing comes back. If
your write to them, nothing gets returned. It all disappears into a
big white rectangle. It reminds me of the public service in the 1980s,
before office PC productivity. They process all their accounting/sales
data and dollars from Australia through their Ireland office… while
its true that the Australian population was once 75% Irish, that was a
long time ago (in the early 1800s).
* Telstra, the major Australian telco (previously, a government-owned
monopoly, still with nation-wide mobile coverage), only started
selling an Android phone in April 2010 - just a few months ago.
Vodafone Aust. Ltd. has sold one for a while longer - but they are a
much much smaller company, with much less coverage nationally, and
they only sell it via high-end phone plans.
* I'm yet to meet (or even see) a person on the street (outside the IT
world) that actually has an Android phone.

In summary, both your published piracy rate for Australia, and also
your actual 'total number of installs' for Australia, are 'far from
representative' IMHO. I suggest to you that there is something very
odd going on there with your app installs (supposedly) coming from
Australia?

Cheers
Steve

On Aug 27, 7:15 am, keyeslabs  wrote:
> Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the
> highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were
> elsewhere.  For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about
> 70%, but Australia is more like 92%.  For the countries where apps may
> be purchased, here's the breakdown:
>
> Country Purchases       Installs        Pirated Installs        Piracy Rate
> Australia       26      321     295     92%
> Austria 6       13      7       54%
> Canada  25      96      71      74%
> France  23      104     81      78%
> Germany 38      161     123     76%
> Italy   4       36      32      89%
> Japan   467     467     0       0%
> Netherlands     24      98      74      76%
> New Zealand     4       8       4       50%
> Spain   7       63      56      89%
> Switzerland     7       21      14      67%
> United Kingdom  108     335     227     68%
> United States   2051    6105    4054    66%
>
> The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate
> is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made...
>
> Dave
>
> On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20  wrote:
>
>
>
> > Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make assumptions
> > about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results
> > found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries
> > where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap
> > *sses :)
>
> > -niko
>
> > On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
>
> > > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.  Found
> > > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> > > members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
>
> > > Dave

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Mark Carter]

On Aug 28, 9:50 am, Peter Webb  wrote:
> The figures are clearly and obviously wrong. The most basic common
> sense should tell you that.

Common sense is often a pretty unreliable metric.

Clearly stats based on a single app should not be generalised too much
especially (as gosh mentioned earlier) when the numbers involved are
fairly small.

Here's one theory: Pirate sites have far less apps than the Android
Market and so the apps that are there are far more discoverable. Users
are downloading them out of curiosity and would never have bought them
even if the pirate sites didn't exist. There could be just a few users
downloading a whole load of pirate copies and so skewing the results.
Here's a wild guess: most pirated downloads are discovered directly on
the pirate site (as opposed to users discovering the app on the Market
and then searching for a pirate copy).

Maybe the analytics show those users are regularly using the apps?
This doesn't mean they would have been prepared to fork out cash. For
many users, many apps are nice to have but not good enough to pay for.
Or maybe they simply can't pay for it.

Imagine this for every 10,000 android users in Australia:

8 buy your app
92 download a pirate copy

So it would only take at least 1% of users to actively use pirate
sites to make these numbers work. I'd expect the number to be more
like 10% (another wild guess) which would mean about 10% of those
users thought your app was at least "good enough to try".

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[Peter Webb]

I am also an Australian software developer.

I can state with absolute certainty that these figures are absolute
bullshit. 92% of apps running in Australia are not pirated. It is
absolutely ridiculous.

Anecdotally, as a developer I have sought our everybody I know with an
Android phone, maybe half a dozen techies and half a dozen "normal"
people. None of them are even aware of a pirate market in paid Android
apps. The chances of 12 people in a row being in  that 8% -
impossible.

More generally, my app is a live wallpaper. Here is an interesting
stat. My uninstall rate dropped by 20% when I included instructions
for how to run a live wallpaper. At least 20% of android market users
appear unfamiliar with how to run a Live Wallpaper. Yet the statistics
presented imply that 92% of Australians not only know how to install
pirate apps, but also do so. Sound plausible to you?

Australians are no more likely to pirate software than people in any
other developed country. 92% of Australian android phone users
obviously don't pirate android software. For that matter, 54% of
Austrians don't pirate software either, but whatever fraction it is
(I'm guessing a couple of percent at most), Australians and Austrians
aren't going to be that different.

The figures are clearly and obviously wrong. The most basic common
sense should tell you that.



On Aug 28, 3:58 pm, gosh  wrote:
> Hi Dave,
>
> Thanks for the stats - as disconcerting as they are.
>
> As an Australian software developer I was very disappointed to see
> Australia up top in the percentages on your scale of software pirates,
> wrt to your app - which I find hard to explain, subjectively or
> otherwise.
>
> I'll make a few points though (I'm assuming your figures are for your
> utility 'Screebl Pro', via your link):
>
> * Having some background in data analysis, I don't consider sample
> sizes under 300 to be statistically significant - which leaves you
> with 4 rows of data at this stage.
>
> * Going on your app, the US is the only place where Android is a big
> success thus far -  I do know that 'utility' programs are a bit
> 'techie' for most regular phone users, but I'm thinking percentages
> here.
>
> * Android phones are fairly few on the ground in Australia (in my
> limited experience with other Android owners - other owners have been
> either software developers/publishers or university students, many of
> whom are from overseas - many/most countries). That said, since the
> 'main' telco here (Telstra) began selling Android phones here in April
> 2010, some regular folk/mums-and-dads are now starting to buy them….
> i.e. The fact that australia is 4th in your list of overall downloads
> is very surprising to me, given the great lack of Google/Android-phone
> focus upon Australia - I thought it would be down around the NZ
> figures. Note: Most ads I've seen for Android phones here do 'not'
> even mention 'Android' at all (E.g. the recent ads for the Samsung
> i9000 Galaxy S ) - so I assume its either a perceived marketing
> negative, or its not worth the 'copy' space the single word would take
> up.
>
> * As a former president of the Australian Software Publishers
> Association, I know that Australians generally 'do' buy their software
> when its not open source - which is the main precursor to a country
> having a software industry. Its a part of the 'a fair go mate' ethos
> here - so Indy developers are likely to do well here - and do, given
> an avenue to market.
>
> * I do know that there are lots of software developers in Australia
> 'very pissed-off' with Google in that we are unable to 'sell' our
> programs in the Android Market (even though our customers can buy them
> from elsewhere) - e.g. I've had programs sitting here collecting dust
> for 12 months (yes, 365 days, one planetary orbit around the Sun [the
> one thats 93 million miles away] - no actions, and worse, no words
> about actions, from Google) come Tuesday this week 
> see:http://www.digitalfriend.org/blog/month2009-09.html- but that is
> unlikely to cause a software developer to pirate other software
> developers hard work. I certain haven't and wouldn't. That kama is
> reserved for Google (and then Android), not for fellow software
> developers.  i.e. If you are unable to circulate your own work, ones
> enthusiasm eventually dries up and withers on the vine, such that, in
> my case at least, I've abandoned my daily usage of the Android phone
> itself, and now use an alternative smart phone from a company with a
> global perspective instead.
>
> * Its true that, within the list of countries wrt your downloads,
> Canadian, Kiwi and Swiss developers also cannot sell their apps on
> Google Android Market to their own customers - so if it was 'a
> disgruntled developer issue' re Australia, you would likely see it
> there too - but as I've pointed out, your figures for those countries
> are statistically insignificant, so that doesn't constitute evidence
> either way.
>
> * I'm not surpr

[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[gosh]

Hi Dave,

Thanks for the stats - as disconcerting as they are.

As an Australian software developer I was very disappointed to see
Australia up top in the percentages on your scale of software pirates,
wrt to your app - which I find hard to explain, subjectively or
otherwise.

I'll make a few points though (I'm assuming your figures are for your
utility 'Screebl Pro', via your link):

* Having some background in data analysis, I don't consider sample
sizes under 300 to be statistically significant - which leaves you
with 4 rows of data at this stage.

* Going on your app, the US is the only place where Android is a big
success thus far -  I do know that 'utility' programs are a bit
'techie' for most regular phone users, but I'm thinking percentages
here.

* Android phones are fairly few on the ground in Australia (in my
limited experience with other Android owners - other owners have been
either software developers/publishers or university students, many of
whom are from overseas - many/most countries). That said, since the
'main' telco here (Telstra) began selling Android phones here in April
2010, some regular folk/mums-and-dads are now starting to buy them….
i.e. The fact that australia is 4th in your list of overall downloads
is very surprising to me, given the great lack of Google/Android-phone
focus upon Australia - I thought it would be down around the NZ
figures. Note: Most ads I've seen for Android phones here do 'not'
even mention 'Android' at all (E.g. the recent ads for the Samsung
i9000 Galaxy S ) - so I assume its either a perceived marketing
negative, or its not worth the 'copy' space the single word would take
up.

* As a former president of the Australian Software Publishers
Association, I know that Australians generally 'do' buy their software
when its not open source - which is the main precursor to a country
having a software industry. Its a part of the 'a fair go mate' ethos
here - so Indy developers are likely to do well here - and do, given
an avenue to market.

* I do know that there are lots of software developers in Australia
'very pissed-off' with Google in that we are unable to 'sell' our
programs in the Android Market (even though our customers can buy them
from elsewhere) - e.g. I've had programs sitting here collecting dust
for 12 months (yes, 365 days, one planetary orbit around the Sun [the
one thats 93 million miles away] - no actions, and worse, no words
about actions, from Google) come Tuesday this week see:
http://www.digitalfriend.org/blog/month2009-09.html - but that is
unlikely to cause a software developer to pirate other software
developers hard work. I certain haven't and wouldn't. That kama is
reserved for Google (and then Android), not for fellow software
developers.  i.e. If you are unable to circulate your own work, ones
enthusiasm eventually dries up and withers on the vine, such that, in
my case at least, I've abandoned my daily usage of the Android phone
itself, and now use an alternative smart phone from a company with a
global perspective instead.

* Its true that, within the list of countries wrt your downloads,
Canadian, Kiwi and Swiss developers also cannot sell their apps on
Google Android Market to their own customers - so if it was 'a
disgruntled developer issue' re Australia, you would likely see it
there too - but as I've pointed out, your figures for those countries
are statistically insignificant, so that doesn't constitute evidence
either way.

* I'm not surprised at your figures for Japan - even major software
contracts with Japanese companies usually only require a hand-shake to
seal an honorable relationship. (I wonder if they even have local
lawyers? )

* As much as I am surprised at your figures for Australia, I am also
surprised at your figures for the US. They seem overly high to me. It
makes me wonder what your software does and how much it costs wrt
other apps? More so, it makes me wonder if the 'Lite' version is an
overly crippled version of the 'Pro' version, such that large numbers
of people are justifying an illegal download of the Pro version. I.e.
Is the Lite version 'really' useful in its own right - or is it little
more than 'an ad' that constitutes an expensive download to the
unwitting customer/phone user? It would also be of general interest to
know what the respective download numbers for your 'Lite' version are,
over the same period of time? (Note: I really have no knowledge of
your app - so these are just very general questions/ponderings by me,
and are certainly 'not' reflections upon your apps, Lite version or
Pro)…

If your figures are indeed generally representative of Android apps of
all sorts, then yes, your experience is indeed a worry for all - and
it makes a Licensing approach totally necessary for paid apps - sad
but true, given the low retail cost of phone apps in general.

Cheers
Steve

On Aug 27, 7:15 am, keyeslabs  wrote:
> Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the
> highest piracy ra

Re: [android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[TreKing]

On Thu, Aug 26, 2010 at 3:59 PM, niko20  wrote:

> I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap *sses :)
>

I don't think we needed statistical analysis for this =P

-
TreKing  - Chicago
transit tracking app for Android-powered devices

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[keyeslabs]

Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the
highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were
elsewhere.  For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about
70%, but Australia is more like 92%.  For the countries where apps may
be purchased, here's the breakdown:

Country Purchases   InstallsPirated InstallsPiracy Rate
Australia   26  321 295 92%
Austria 6   13  7   54%
Canada  25  96  71  74%
France  23  104 81  78%
Germany 38  161 123 76%
Italy   4   36  32  89%
Japan   467 467 0   0%
Netherlands 24  98  74  76%
New Zealand 4   8   4   50%
Spain   7   63  56  89%
Switzerland 7   21  14  67%
United Kingdom  108 335 227 68%
United States   20516105405466%

The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate
is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made...

Dave


On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20  wrote:
> Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make assumptions
> about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results
> found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries
> where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap
> *sses :)
>
> -niko
>
> On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
>
> > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.  Found
> > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> > members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
>
> > Dave

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[android-developers] Re: Piracy Breakdown by Country

[niko20]

Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make assumptions
about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results
found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries
where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap
*sses :)



-niko

On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs  wrote:
> Recently did an analysis of piracy rates by country for my app.  Found
> some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to
> members of this group:  http://bit.ly/bSaoBe
>
> Dave

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