Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-18 Thread Harvey Newstrom
On Saturday 10 November 2007 16:51, Robin Hanson wrote: At 02:06 PM 11/10/2007, Richard Loosemore wrote: Basically, 'traditional' AI people have an almost theological aversion to the idea that the task of building an AI might involve having to learn (and deconstruct!) a vast amount of

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-15 Thread Richard Loosemore
Mike Tintner wrote: Sounds a little confusing. Sounds like you plan to evolve a system through testing thousands of candidate mechanisms. So one way or another you too are taking a view - even if it's an evolutionary, I'm not taking a view view - on, and making a lot of asssumptions about

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-14 Thread Lukasz Stafiniak
: Monday, November 12, 2007 2:42 PM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? It is NOT clear that Novamente documentation is NOT enabling, or could not be made enabling, with, say, one man year of work. Strong argument could be made both ways. I believe

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-14 Thread Edward W. Porter
Message- From: Mark Waser [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 2:42 PM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? It is NOT clear that Novamente documentation is NOT enabling, or could not be made enabling, with, say, one man year of work

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-14 Thread Lukasz Stafiniak
To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? I think that there are two basic directions to better the Novamente architecture: the one Mark talks about more integration of MOSES with PLN and RL theory - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Linas Vepstas wrote: On Tue, Nov 13, 2007 at 12:34:51PM -0500, Richard Loosemore wrote: Suppose that in some significant part of Novamente there is a representation system that uses probability or likelihood numbers to encode the strength of facts, as in [I like cats](p=0.75). The (p=0.75)

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
Hi, No: the real concept of lack of grounding is nothing so simple as the way you are using the word grounding. Lack of grounding makes an AGI fall flat on its face and not work. I can't summarize the grounding literature in one post. (Though, heck, I have actually tried to do that in

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Benjamin Goertzel wrote: On Nov 13, 2007 2:37 PM, Richard Loosemore [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben, Unfortunately what you say below is tangential to my point, which is what happens when you reach the stage where you cannot allow any more vagueness

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Benjamin Goertzel wrote: Hi, No: the real concept of lack of grounding is nothing so simple as the way you are using the word grounding. Lack of grounding makes an AGI fall flat on its face and not work. I can't summarize the grounding literature in one post. (Though,

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
Richard, So here I am, looking at this situation, and I see: AGI system intepretation (implicit in system use of it) Human programmer intepretation and I ask myself which one of these is the real interpretation? It matters, because they do not necessarily match up. That

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Tuesday 13 November 2007 09:11, Richard Loosemore wrote: This is the whole brain emulation approach, I guess (my previous comments were about evolution of brains rather than neural level duplication). Ah, you are right. But this too is an interesting topic. I think that

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Mike Tintner
RL:In order to completely ground the system, you need to let the system build its own symbols V. much agree with your whole argument. But - I may well have missed some vital posts - I have yet to get the slightest inkling of how you yourself propose to do this. - This list is

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
On Nov 14, 2007 1:36 PM, Mike Tintner [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: RL:In order to completely ground the system, you need to let the system build its own symbols Correct. Novamente is designed to be able to build its own symbols. what is built-in, are mechanisms for building symbols, and for

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-14 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Wednesday 14 November 2007 11:55, Richard Loosemore wrote: I was really thinking of the data collection problem:  we cannot take one brain and get full information about all those things, down to a sufficient level of detail.  I do not see such a technology even over the horizon (short of

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Wednesday 14 November 2007 11:28, Richard Loosemore wrote: The complaint is not your symbols are not connected to experience. Everyone and their mother has an AI system that could be connected to real world input.  The simple act of connecting to the real world is NOT the core problem. Are

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Wednesday 14 November 2007 11:28, Richard Loosemore wrote: The complaint is not your symbols are not connected to experience. Everyone and their mother has an AI system that could be connected to real world input. The simple act of connecting to the real world is NOT the

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Russell Wallace
On Nov 14, 2007 11:58 PM, Bryan Bishop [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Are we sure? How much of the real world are we able to get into our AGI models anyway? Bandwidth is limited, much more limited than in humans and other animals. In fact, it might be the equivalent to worm tech. To do the

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Mike Tintner
Sounds a little confusing. Sounds like you plan to evolve a system through testing thousands of candidate mechanisms. So one way or another you too are taking a view - even if it's an evolutionary, I'm not taking a view view - on, and making a lot of asssumptions about -how systems evolve

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Mike Tintner wrote: RL:In order to completely ground the system, you need to let the system build its own symbols V. much agree with your whole argument. But - I may well have missed some vital posts - I have yet to get the slightest inkling of how you yourself propose to do this. Well,

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-14 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Wednesday 14 November 2007 11:55, Richard Loosemore wrote: I was really thinking of the data collection problem: we cannot take one brain and get full information about all those things, down to a sufficient level of detail. I do not see such a technology even over the

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Monday 12 November 2007 22:16, Richard Loosemore wrote: If anyone were to throw that quantity of resources at the AGI problem (recruiting all of the planet), heck, I could get it done in about 3 years. ;-) I have done some research on this topic in the last hour and

Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Richard Loosemore
] *To:* agi@v2.listbox.com mailto:agi@v2.listbox.com *Sent:* Monday, November 12, 2007 3:49 PM *Subject:* Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? To be honest, Richard, I do wonder whether a sufficiently in-depth conversation about AGI between us would result in you changing

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Edward W. Porter
To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? It is NOT clear that Novamente documentation is NOT enabling, or could not be made enabling, with, say, one man year of work. Strong argument could be made both ways. I believe that Ben would argue that Novamente

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
.listbox.com *Sent:* Monday, November 12, 2007 3:49 PM *Subject:* Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? To be honest, Richard, I do wonder whether a sufficiently in-depth conversation about AGI between us would result in you changing your views about the CSP

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
For example, what is the equivalent of the activation control (or search) algorithm in Google sets. They operate over huge data. I bet the algorithm for calculating their search or activation is relatively simple (much, much, much less than a PhD theses) and look what they can do. So I

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Richard Loosemore
Mike Tintner wrote: RL:Suppose that in some significant part of Novamente there is a representation system that uses probability or likelihood numbers to encode the strength of facts, as in [I like cats](p=0.75). The (p=0.75) is supposed to express the idea that the statement [I like cats] is

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Richard Loosemore
Ben, Unfortunately what you say below is tangential to my point, which is what happens when you reach the stage where you cannot allow any more vagueness or subjective interpretation of the qualifiers, because you have to force the system to do its own grounding, and hence its own

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
On Nov 13, 2007 2:37 PM, Richard Loosemore [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben, Unfortunately what you say below is tangential to my point, which is what happens when you reach the stage where you cannot allow any more vagueness or subjective interpretation of the qualifiers, because you have to

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 08:44:58PM -0500, Mark Waser wrote: So perhaps the AGI question is, what is the difference between a know-it-all mechano-librarian, and a sentient being? I wasn't assuming a mechano-librarian. I was assuming a human that could (and might be trained to) do some

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
This is the thing that I think is relevent to Robin Hanson's original question. I think we can build 1+2 is short order, and maybe 3 in a while longer. But the result of 1+2+3 will almost surely be an idiot-savant: knows everything about horses, and can talk about them at length, but, like

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Tue, Nov 13, 2007 at 12:34:51PM -0500, Richard Loosemore wrote: Suppose that in some significant part of Novamente there is a representation system that uses probability or likelihood numbers to encode the strength of facts, as in [I like cats](p=0.75). The (p=0.75) is supposed to

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
But has a human, asking Wen out on a date, I don't really know what Wen likes cats ever really meant. It neither prevents me from talking to Wen, or from telling my best buddy that ...well, I know, for instance, that she likes cats... yes, exactly... The NLP statement Wen likes cats is

Re: Essay - example of how the CSP bites [WAS Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?]

2007-11-13 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
So, vagueness can not only be important imported, I meant into an AI system from natural language, but also propagated around the AI system via inference. This is NOT one of the trickier things about building probabilistic AGI, it's really kind of elementary... -- Ben G -

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Mark Waser
for ten seconds that you've answered *anything*. That's the *narrow ai* approach. - Original Message - From: Linas Vepstas [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 4:01 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 08:44

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-13 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Tuesday 13 November 2007 09:11, Richard Loosemore wrote: This is the whole brain emulation approach, I guess (my previous comments were about evolution of brains rather than neural level duplication). Ah, you are right. But this too is an interesting topic. I think that the order of

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
:-) but if I am, I certainly haven't got to the point where I feel that I can defend it.:-) - Original Message - From: Benjamin Goertzel To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 11:45 AM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Nov 12

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
Hi, Research project 1. How do you find analogies between neural networks, enzyme kinetics and the formation of galaxies (hint: think Boltzmann)? That is a question most humans couldn't answer, and is only suitable for testing an AGI that is already very advanced. In your opinion. I

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
can frequently turn huge once you turn your attention to them. Who are you snowing here? - Original Message - From: Benjamin Goertzel To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 12:55 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? Hi

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
That's a good simple, starting case. But how do you decide how much knowledge to disburse? How do you know what is irrelevant? How much do your answers differ between a small farmer in New Zealand, a rodeo rider in the West, a veterinarian is Pennsylvania, a child in Washington, a

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Edward W. Porter
To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? Ed -- Just a quick comment: Mark actually read a bunch of the proprietary, NDA-required Novamente documents and looked at some source code (3 years ago, so a lot of progress has happened since then). Richard didn't, so he

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
On Nov 12, 2007 1:49 PM, Mark Waser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I'm more interested at this stage in analogies like -- btw seeking food and seeking understanding -- between getting an object out of a hole and getting an object out of a pocket, or a guarded room Why would one need to

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
or manipulate the language so content is irrelevant, users apply tags, fairly simply regurgitation) if you think 2008 is anywhere close to reasonable. - Original Message - From: Benjamin Goertzel To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 1:59 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
On Nov 12, 2007 2:51 PM, Mark Waser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I don't know at what point you'll be blocked from answering by confidentiality concerns I can't say much more than I will do in this email, due to customer confidentiality concerns but I'll ask a few questions you hopefully can

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
On Nov 12, 2007 2:41 PM, Mark Waser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: It is NOT clear that Novamente documentation is NOT enabling, or could not be made enabling, with, say, one man year of work. Strong argument could be made both ways. I believe that Ben would argue that Novamente

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
, November 12, 2007 2:57 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Nov 12, 2007 2:51 PM, Mark Waser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I don't know at what point you'll be blocked from answering by confidentiality concerns I can't say much more than I will do in this email, due

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Benjamin Goertzel wrote: Ed -- Just a quick comment: Mark actually read a bunch of the proprietary, NDA-required Novamente documents and looked at some source code (3 years ago, so a lot of progress has happened since then). Richard didn't, so he doesn't have the same basis of knowledge to

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Sat, Nov 10, 2007 at 10:19:44AM -0800, Jef Allbright wrote: as I was driving home I approached a truck off the side of the road, its driver pulling hard on a bar, tightening the straps securing the load. Without conscious thought I moved over in my lane to allow for the possibility that

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Lukasz Stafiniak
On Nov 12, 2007 10:34 PM, Linas Vepstas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I can easily imagine that next-years grand challenge, or the one thereafter, will explicitly require ability to deal with cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians, children and dogs. Exactly how they'd test this, however, I don't

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Linas Vepstas wrote: On Sat, Nov 10, 2007 at 10:19:44AM -0800, Jef Allbright wrote: as I was driving home I approached a truck off the side of the road, its driver pulling hard on a bar, tightening the straps securing the load. Without conscious thought I moved over in my lane to allow for

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Jef Allbright
On 11/12/07, Linas Vepstas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I see a human, better give him wide berth. Certainly, the ability to detect and deal with pedestrians will be required before these things become street-legal. Well, I think we'll see robotic vehicles first play a significant role in war

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Jef Allbright
On 11/12/07, Lukasz Stafiniak [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 12, 2007 10:34 PM, Linas Vepstas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I can easily imagine that next-years grand challenge, or the one thereafter, will explicitly require ability to deal with cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians, children

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
:49 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? To be honest, Richard, I do wonder whether a sufficiently in-depth conversation about AGI between us would result in you changing your views about the CSP problem in a way that would accept the possibility of Novamente-type

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Sun, Nov 11, 2007 at 02:16:06PM -0500, Edward W. Porter wrote: Its way out, but not crazy. If humanity or some mechanical legacy of us ever comes out the other end of the first century after superhuman intelligence arrives, it or they will be ready to start playing in the Galactic big

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 04:56:00PM -0500, Richard Loosemore wrote: Linas Vepstas wrote: I can easily imagine that next-years grand challenge, or the one thereafter, will explicitly require ability to deal with cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians, children and dogs. Exactly how they'd test

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
. . . . :-)which is why I figured I'd run this out there and see how he reacted.:-) - Original Message - From: Benjamin Goertzel To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 5:14 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Nov 12, 2007 5:02 PM, Mark

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
I am heavily focussed on my own design at the moment, but when you talk about the need for 100+ hours of studying detailed NM materials, are you talking about publicly available documents, or proprietary information? Proprietary info, much of which may be made public next year, though...

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Benjamin Goertzel wrote: To be honest, Richard, I do wonder whether a sufficiently in-depth conversation about AGI between us would result in you changing your views about the CSP problem in a way that would accept the possibility of Novamente-type solutions. But, this conversation as I'm

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 01:49:52PM -0500, Mark Waser wrote: What I thought you meant was, if a user asked I'm a small farmer in New Zealand. Tell me about horses then the system would be able to disburse its relevant knowledge about horses, filtering out the irrelevant stuff. What

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Monday 12 November 2007 15:56, Richard Loosemore wrote: You never know what new situation might arise that might be a problem, and you cannot market a driverless car on the understanding that IF it starts killing people under particular circumstances, THEN someone will follow that by adding

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 06:56:51PM -0500, Mark Waser wrote: It will happily include irrelevant facts Which immediately makes it *not* relevant to my point. Please read my e-mails more carefully before you hop on with ignorant flames. I read your emails, and, mixed in with some

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
of user dissatisfaction. Mark - Original Message - From: Benjamin Goertzel To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 7:10 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Nov 12, 2007 6:56 PM, Mark Waser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Mark Waser
fair chunk of money that 15 years *is* entirely within reason for the scenario you suggest. - Original Message - From: Linas Vepstas [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Monday, November 12, 2007 7:28 PM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Mon, Nov 12, 2007

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 06:22:37PM -0600, Bryan Bishop wrote: On Monday 12 November 2007 17:31, Linas Vepstas wrote: If and when you find a human who is capable of having conversations about horses with small farmers, rodeo riders, vets, children and biomechanicians, I'll bet that they

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Linas Vepstas
On Mon, Nov 12, 2007 at 07:46:15PM -0500, Mark Waser wrote: There is a big difference between being able to fake something for a brief period of time and being able to do it correctly. All of your phrasing clearly indicates that *you* believe that your systems can only fake it for a

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Mark Waser wrote: Yes, sorry, I'm laboring under a horrible cold and my brain is not all here. Same here: I'm recovering from it now, but it was a real doozy. (Is that how you spell doozy?) Anyhow, this is all just to say that your detailed post and questions was very thought provoking,

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Monday 12 November 2007 15:56, Richard Loosemore wrote: You never know what new situation might arise that might be a problem, and you cannot market a driverless car on the understanding that IF it starts killing people under particular circumstances, THEN someone will

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Monday 12 November 2007 19:31, Richard Loosemore wrote: Yikes, no:  my strategy is to piggyback on all that work, not to try to duplicate it. Even the Genetic Algorithm people don't (I think) dream of evolution on that scale. Yudkowsky recently wrote an email on preservation of the

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Edward W. Porter wrote: I'm sorry. I guess I did misunderstand you. If you have time I wish you could state the reasons why you find it lacking as efficiently as has Mark Waser. Ed Porter I'll do my best when I respond to Mark's questions/commentary tomorrow. Briefly, though, the complex

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Monday 12 November 2007 19:31, Richard Loosemore wrote: Yikes, no: my strategy is to piggyback on all that work, not to try to duplicate it. Even the Genetic Algorithm people don't (I think) dream of evolution on that scale. Yudkowsky recently wrote an email on

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Monday 12 November 2007 19:48, Richard Loosemore wrote: Even with everyone on the planet running evolutionary simulations, I do not believe we could reinvent an intelligent system by brute force. Of your message, this part is the most peculiar. Brute force is all that we have. - Bryan

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
On Nov 12, 2007 8:44 PM, Mark Waser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I don't think BenG claimed to be able to build an AGI in 6 months, but rather something that can fake it for a breif period of time. I was rising to the defense of that. No. Ben is honest in his claims and he said that this was

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Richard Loosemore
Bryan Bishop wrote: On Monday 12 November 2007 19:48, Richard Loosemore wrote: Even with everyone on the planet running evolutionary simulations, I do not believe we could reinvent an intelligent system by brute force. Of your message, this part is the most peculiar. Brute force is all that

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-12 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Monday 12 November 2007 22:16, Richard Loosemore wrote: If anyone were to throw that quantity of resources at the AGI problem (recruiting all of the planet), heck, I could get it done in about 3 years. ;-) I have done some research on this topic in the last hour and have found that a

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Edward W. Porter
Goertzel [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2007 5:29 PM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? I'm impressed with the certainty of some of the views expressed here, nothing like I get talking to people actually building robots. - Jef

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Jef Allbright
On 11/11/07, Edward W. Porter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ben said -- the possibility of dramatic, rapid, shocking success in robotics is LOWER than in cognition That's why I tell people the value of manual labor will not be impacted as soon by the AGI revolution as the value of mind labor.

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
But we do not yet have a complete, verifiable theory, let alone a practical design. - Jef To be more accurate, we don't have a practical design that is commonly accepted in the AGI research community. I believe that I *do* have a practical design for AGI and I am working hard toward

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
Richard, Even Ben Goertzel, in a recent comment, said something to the effect that the only good reason to believe that his model is going to function as advertised is that *when* it is working we will be able to see that it really does work: The above paragraph is a distortion of what I

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Richard Loosemore
Benjamin Goertzel wrote: Richard, Even Ben Goertzel, in a recent comment, said something to the effect that the only good reason to believe that his model is going to function as advertised is that *when* it is working we will be able to see that it really does work:

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Richard Loosemore
Edward W. Porter wrote: Richard, Geortzel claims his planning indicates it is rougly 6 years x 15 excellent, hard-working programmers, or 90 man years to getting his architecture up an running. I assume that will involve a lot of “hard” mental work. By “hard problem” I mean a problem for

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-11 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
Richard, Thus: if someone wanted volunteers to fly in their brand-new aircraft design, but all they could do to reassure people that it was going to work were the intuitions of suitably trained individuals, then most rational people would refuse to fly - they would want more than

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Pei Wang
Hi, The following was my brief reply when someone asked me recently why I think AGI is coming: 1. New constructive theories and engineering plans on AGI begin to appear after decades of vacancy on this topic --- AGI won't be possible until someone begin to try 2. All proposed arguments on the

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Mark Waser
my inclination has been to see progress as very slow toward an explicitly-coded AI, and so to guess that the whole brain emulation approach would succeed first Why are you not considering a seed/learning AGI? - Original Message - From: Robin Hanson To: agi@v2.listbox.com

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Robin Hanson
At 09:10 AM 11/10/2007, you wrote: my inclination has been to see progress as very slow toward an explicitly-coded AI, and so to guess that the whole brain emulation approach would succeed first Why are you not considering a seed/learning AGI? That would count for non-emulation AI, which

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Derek Zahn
Hi Robin. In part it depends on what you mean by fast. 1. Fast - less than 10 years. I do not believe there are any strong arguments for general-purpose AI being developed in this timeframe. The argument here is not that it is likely, but rather that it is *possible*. Some AI researchers,

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Vladimir Nesov
AGI might turn out to be relatively easy to implement, if right theory comes along, so there's some chance of building AGI in the nearest future, while there's NO chance of implementing brain emulation before all those numerous technical details are tackled, and it can take really long time, which

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Robin Hanson
At 10:29 AM 11/10/2007, Derek Zahn wrote: 2. Fast - less than 50 years. For this timeframe, just dust off Moravec's old computer speed chart. On such a chart I think we're supposed to be at something like mouse level right now -- and in fact we have seen supercomputers beginning to take a shot

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Saturday 10 November 2007 09:29, Derek Zahn wrote: On such a chart I think we're supposed to be at something like mouse level right now -- and in fact we have seen supercomputers beginning to take a shot at simulating mouse-brain-like structures. Ref? - Bryan - This list is sponsored

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Kaj Sotala
On 11/10/07, Bryan Bishop [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Saturday 10 November 2007 09:29, Derek Zahn wrote: On such a chart I think we're supposed to be at something like mouse level right now -- and in fact we have seen supercomputers beginning to take a shot at simulating mouse-brain-like

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Saturday 10 November 2007 10:07, Kaj Sotala wrote: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6600965.stm The researchers say that although the simulation shared some similarities with a mouse's mental make-up in terms of nerves and connections it lacked the structures seen in real mice brains.

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Mark Waser
*. - Original Message - From: Bryan Bishop [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Saturday, November 10, 2007 11:22 AM Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Saturday 10 November 2007 10:07, Kaj Sotala wrote: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6600965.stm

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Derek Zahn
Bryan Bishop: Looks like they were just simulating eight million neurons with up to 6.3k synapses each. How's that necessarily a mouse simulation, anyway? It isn't. Nobody said it was necessarily a mouse simulation. I said it was a simulation of a mouse-brain-like structure. Unfortunately,

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Saturday 10 November 2007 11:31, Derek Zahn wrote: Unfortunately, not enough is yet known about specific connectivity so the best that can be done is play with structures of similar scale in anticipation of further advances. What signs will tell us that we do know enough about the

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Jef Allbright
On 11/10/07, Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: My impression is that the cognitive performance of mice is vastly superior to that of current robot cars. I don't see how they could be considered even remotely comparable. But perhaps I have misjudged. Has anyone attempted to itemize

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Bob Mottram
I think the media coverage of mouse brain simulation was a little misleading. What I think they actually achieved was to simulate many neurons based upon the Izhikevich model on a large computer at a rate significantly slower than real time. As far as I know there was no attempt to actually

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Edward W. Porter
Robin, I am an evangelist for the fact that the time for powerful AI could be here very rapidly if there were reasonable funding for the right people. There is a small, but increasing number of people who pretty much understand how to build artificial brains as powerful as that of humans, not

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Bob Mottram
On 10/11/2007, Jef Allbright [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: At the DARPA Urban Challenge last weekend, the optimism and flush of rapid growth was palpable, but as I was driving home I approached a truck off the side of the road, its driver pulling hard on a bar, tightening the straps securing the

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Bryan Bishop
On Saturday 10 November 2007 12:52, Edward W. Porter wrote: In fact, if the ITRS roadmap projections continue to be met through What is the ITRS roadmap? Do you have a link? - Bryan - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Richard Loosemore
Robin Hanson wrote: I've been invited to write an article for an upcoming special issue of IEEE Spectrum on Singularity, which in this context means rapid and large social change from human-level or higher artificial intelligence. I may be among the most enthusiastic authors in that issue,

Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Jef Allbright
On 11/10/07, Edward W. Porter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: There is a small, but increasing number of people who pretty much understand how to build artificial brains as powerful as that of humans, not 100% but probably at least 90% at an architectual level. Being 90% certain of where to get on

RE: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI?

2007-11-10 Thread Edward W. Porter
.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] What best evidence for fast AI? On Saturday 10 November 2007 12:52, Edward W. Porter wrote: In fact, if the ITRS roadmap projections continue to be met through What is the ITRS roadmap? Do you have a link? - Bryan - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http

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