ked, half economists, none would grant
the wish, while my two young sons would grant the wish.
I'm struck by how distrusting or envious adults are of others.
Many have articulated that they fear the person with a wish or
10T$ would use it to gain power over them.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTE
theories of population increases
or the introduction of cheap syringes, both of which might explain why
infection didn't happen earlier. But I'm not sure they can explain why
we haven't seen more such transmissions since then.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu
one of these strands, there have to have been
multiple transmission events from primates to humans. The issue isn't about
reports of when people said they saw the disease, but about what we can now
infer
about who had what when.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst.
ions from imperfect
reasoning tend to assume that people are not meta-rational. This may
be true, but most of the evidence presented just show cognitive errors,
and is silent on the issue of meta-rationality.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Maso
l into and ways they try to compensate for that.
People talk about realizing that each person tends to think highly of
him/herself, and trying to compensate for that. How is this so far-fetched?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
e. People seem to believe that they tend
"stereotype" groups of people based on small possibly non-
representative sets of examples, and consciously try to overcome
this tendency. Overall, I'd say they do a reasonable job of
correcting for this possible cognitive bias.
Robin Hanso
s other uses for their PhD than they
had hoped to turn it into an MBA-substitute.
>... The harshest critics say the two years
>spent earning an M.B.A. are little more than an extended job search and
>a chance to build of network of contacts.
But this by itself can be more than worth t
rk so well that our own leaders would fear for their lives.
That seems a plausible theory to me.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
uce the result.
Even if Microsoft OS was used to produce the paper, however,
I don't think the paper's authors should be required to give
it free to all academics.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, F
this claim
"One possibility, of course, is that we
envy our neighbors' possessions more than we feel comfortable admitting.
But there's an alternative explanation, one that works even if we're really
not much concerned about keeping up with the Joneses."
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROT
Chris Auld wrote:
>On Tue, 10 Oct 2000, Robin Hanson wrote:
> > If the monopolist equals the paper authors, and the product
> > over which there is a monopoly has its primary value in producing
> > this paper, then I think the journal should require that the
> > algor
distribution?
An obvious candidate is social insurance. And the obvious question about
that is how well this mechanism compares to other social insurance
mechanisms. This one at least is simple and clear, and difficult to
corrupt.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst
ems short for this purpose.
I think the ancient Jewish tradition of "Julilee" redistributed every
50 years, which makes more sense.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
price discriminates,
they should then charge you more for the next update,
or at least not offer you a discount. Anyone know if
software companies price discriminate against people
who send in complaints about bugs?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics
Francois-Rene Rideau wrote:
> > reporting bugs in a software program could signal to the producer
> > that one is a high volume user of the software. After
> > all, the more you use it the more likely you are to
> > find bugs. ...
>
> AFAIK, there is no price discrimination against reporting b
doesn't report the bug they are less likely to see it fixed.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
into a store and get the stuff at the standard
>price. [2]
We were talking about choosing not to offer them a discount on updates.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
rich and others poor?
3) Which kinds of consumption are more vs. less positional?
4) Why do people agree to disagree?
5) Why do the young ignore lifestyle advice from the old?
6) What exactly do people get out of voting?
7) What is the functional form of a typical utility function U($)?
Rob
kes a difference, but rich folks with good
nutrition a century ago didn't live anywhere near as long as we do.
> > 2) Why are some nations rich and others poor?
>Are you claiming that we have little or no knowledge about this topic?
No, just that the topic is terribly important.
Ro
to summarize how much progress economics has made
since the year 2000.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
heory, as you have for many of these
questions. And I very much like your creativity and coming
up with theories to consider. But until we can convince
more other people to favor our theories, we have to still
call them open questions.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. P
e y value, so we could directly
read off the X axis what the percentile rank of Palm Beach County
is relative to other counties.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
27;t seem to rise as we all get richer together. Rich
people spend a smaller fraction of their income on health
care, but nations spend a larger fraction as they get richer.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, F
arger for the attached and the poor, who are less desired.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
ot;for fun", we can still understand such behavior as instrumental,
in the sense of seeing the evolutionary function served by having genes
that code for such ideas of fun.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
le, it sure seems to me that mating signals are more ambiguous that
can be explained by this alone. Job matching also requires fluctuations
in interest expressed, but seems far less ambiguous.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason Univers
ndment right to free speech.
Probably $1/year is more the median answer for how much a person
is willing to pay to have a constitutional protection against
the government banning that person's speech.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Maso
igious speech. Thus
I suspect willingness to pay for a constitutional rule protecting
free speech is very low.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
useless ?
I suppose it is possible that the first amendment directly causes our
society to be more tolerant of diverse religious expressions. But I'd
want to see more evidence in favor of this theory before accepting it.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Econo
someone else to take over your
$7000 per year obligation for only $70,000. So you should
be able to refinance, make the same loan payment, and have
$30,000 more equity in your house.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow
ble to
talk about the major features of an economic situation without having to
analyze it in enough detail to figure out if there is a market failure.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
question to ask. There seem to be just too
many possible explanatory variables and too few independent data points
at the moment. The solution: get more data points!
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfa
rices
*conditional* on the party of the next president. (The mechanics of doing
this are described at http://hanson.gmu.edu/decisionmarkets.pdf) I predict
that speculators would estimate a *much* smaller than 9pt difference,
if any, between Republican vs. Democrat stock returns.
Robin Hanson [E
erpretation would be that when a group is
suddenly threatened, its members are programmed to reassure each other of
their affection and loyalty. Sex can do that. Babies may result, but
perhaps other processes can reduce that effect when babies are less desired.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PRO
presses our peers.
>Instead, sticking to one's knitting and getting the details correct in a
>solid piece of economic history, or demonstrating a sense of judgement and
>wisdom on policy relevant issues seems to be more the hallmark of the best
>within the Austrian approach.
Robin
If the product academic consumers want is *identifiable* smarts, then
of course they will prefer kinds of smarts that are more easily
identifiable.
You sound like someone who likes Japanese food complaining that there
are too many Chinese restaurants in your area. Maybe you are really
re than you think. If, on the other hand, you base your
claim on some as yet un-validated mechanism for producing clear headed
economics, then I will remain agnostic until I can examine your proposed
innovation.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
oducts?
I'm skeptical that funding would be reduced more than 20%.
Has the demand for TV or radio ads been diminished by widespread
knowledge that the ad-maker's purpose is not primarily promoting truth?
And why should they admit it if their purpose is producing prestige?
Robin Hanson [EM
> biological kids than they are about other people's adoptive kids being
> > taken away. But I doubt that explanation is right.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
most people think protecting natural parents is better on
average, and that many people want to prevent trans-racial adoption.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
re we just
inconsistent?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
hey do. For example, why go to school or hire someone from school,
why go to the doctor, why so risk averse regarding stock investments, etc.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
one.
I tend to agree with most economists that this isn't a very reliable approach.
But consistency seems to suggest that I should then also not much believe
economists when they tell me why they write the papers they do.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economic
Dr. Alexander Tabarrok wrote:
> Another armchair economist made the news! Robin (Hanson) was
>mentioned in yesterday's (Sunday Feb. 10, 2002) New York Times in an
>interesting article about using experimental markets to generate
>marketing information. ...
>http://www.ny
ese issues in far more
detail.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
the situation one is controlling, but usually
control problems are dominated by decision theory issues, not physics issues.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
nute parking decisions would wait to
see the last minute price. And speculators could inform the futures prices.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
wanting to be the happiest), I can't
see any changes in behavior. Frank likes to posit that people care more
about their rank in barbecues than health care, and so we should tax
barbecues and subsidize health care. But I see no data supporting that.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://
guish that from them wanting to
minimize the consumption of those workers, to minimize the regard
in which those workers are held by associates, or to maximize their
mating with potential partners who these workers might compete for.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof
ide the cite?
Neumark, D. and Postlewaite, A. (1998), "Relative Income Concerns and
the Rise in Married Women's Employment", Journal of Public Economics,
70, pp.157-183.
An excellent journal that J. Pub. Ec. - the fact that they're about
to publish my article of course does n
Alex Tabarrok wrote:
> Yes, in 1968 the exchange closed on Wednesday's in order to deal with
> backlog. French and Roll (1986) find that variance of stock returns on
> days when the market is closed is much lower than on days when the
> market is open which suggests that trading itself, rather t
ve. In a $10 trillion/yr economy, .1% is $10 billion/yr,
the present value of which is at least $100 billion. If a thousand
economists took ten years to produce this outcome, their marginal product
would be $10 million/yr! I think that is considerably more than the
opportunity cost for most econom
doing it to avoid taxes, and so failure to
contact will be coded as not working for wages.
Anyone ever estimated the size of the deadweight loss from the
income tax distortion?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow
r interest to install
that video camera, if that is what it takes to convince them.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
question is how to audit time spent.
We need enough data so that audits are feasible.
>Question: Would such a program necessarily imply flat
>taxation, instead of progressive, since income will
>not be reported but hours will?
Tax as a function of hours need not be flat.
Robin Han
at high incomes, so
>perhaps we should subsidize instead of tax the non-work time of
>high-income people?
I don't follow this argument.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
improvements. So how large are any negative externalities on the slaves
from improving productivity, versus benefits to both owners and slaves?
Without any particular reason to expect them to be enormous, I guess I'd
give the advice.
Btw, if people could be persuaded, this is the form of govern
At 04:59 PM 4/26/02 -0700, Wei Dai wrote:
>On Fri, Apr 26, 2002 at 05:15:33PM -0400, Robin Hanson wrote:
> > I apply the same logic to government. If I believe, as I do, that people
> > often overestimate the value they get from government, I should fix that if
> > I can b
That sort
of correlation is what makes your veggie burger example work.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
gmu.edu/bandrug.pdf or .ps
Warning Labels as Cheap-Talk:
Why Regulators Ban Drugs
by Robin Hanson
One explanation for drug bans is that regulators know more than consumers
about product quality. But why not just communicate th
tive of their claim.
Is there a rebuttal to this somewhere?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
etric information
market failure argument, but the amazing thing is that Frey
doesn't even try here.
I'd say that the key stumbling block to a better theory of academic
journals is identifying the real customers and their preferences.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.g
going up, we'd suspect demand is up. If quantity
is going down, we'd suspect costs are going up. Or maybe price
discrimination is getting easier, and you're just looking at the
prices the high value customers pay.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Econ
cipate fads. Truth is often a side-effect, but is incidental to
the main purposes of the parties involved. Different academic disciplines
have settled into equilibria with different mixtures of these elements. I
think this model can explain many otherwise puzzling features of academia.
[We had a
ion failures with people liking the AER, but if so they must
be about some other fixed feature of the AER besides referee vetoes.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
William Sjostrom wrote:
> > I agree that academia wastes vast resources relative to the goal of seeking
> > truth, but I disagree that this implies a market failure, mainly because I
> > don't think the ultimate customers fundamentally want truth. In fact, I
> > think customers in part want fadd
ences are being accurately conveyed in this "market" in the absence of
>the institutions of property, prices and profit and loss.
You keep saying this, but academia seems to me to have all these institutions.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economi
s an end in
>itself and is perpetuated by cultural memes which are themselves the end.
I hope you meant "original seed" metaphorically, rather than temporally.
It's not clear there ever was a time when things were different.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gm
lso need to show that they are tough, will defend their
allies, etc.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
ing child vs. adult
cooperativeness in hunter-gather tribes today. If children
are less cooperative even there, it would look more like
their behavior is more of an adaption for children to act
less cooperatively than adults.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, G
e have to believe that
farm subsidies don't work?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Grey Thomas wrote:
>>Let us assume the Bible is not true; further, that there is no Biblical God.
>>Thus, no basis for ANY of the 10 commandments, nor thus for any absolute
>>moral good vs. evil. So fornication, adultery, stealing, murder are not
>>This "obviously" results in a selfish, mean so
similar they are, you'd think they'd be available in more than eight colors. )
Is this convergence due to technology or preferences? Is this just clearly
the cheapest way to make a roomy reliable car? Or do people now have a
preference for a car that looks just like everyone else
e and layout.
>Another note: isn't square and boxy a simple way to maximize space
>inside the car?
OK, but wouldn't this have always been true?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
stay and beg here? Would people tend to leave when they retire?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
e share, buying from people who leave?
Yes, but it seems unlikely many would do so.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
ould dismantle most regulation, if they thought that
would help.
>Also, minority interests would be overpowered as they are now.
And as they are in any corporation.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
areholders have in
>such a worlds?
Are state-enforced lawsuits really what keeps large multinational
corporations honest now? If not, then the concept here is to use
mechanisms similar to whatever large corporations now use.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Ec
share for each
>child they had.
Yup. And which policy would profit maximizing managers choose?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Why do charity races make sense? I can understand why people give to
charity, and can understand why they participate in races, like running
or biking. But why are these activities combined so often? Why limit
who can give to a charity to who can run in a race, and why limit who
can run in
le you socialize with. Why these as opposed to any other set of three
positive features (such as humor, intelligence, residence, etc.)?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
d of job, and then impress you with the dollar
amount of money they donated to the charity. "If I donated
$10,000, couldn't you donate a few dollars?"
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
t a donation from many people
>for racing but few people will pay me to mow my own lawn (or anyone
>else's)!
Races are public goods?! How do I benefit if some other people run
a race with each other? Is this just due to some externality that
healthy people produce in general?
Robi
ey're going to exercise anyway, then
>running isn't much sacrifice, as I suggested.
If exercise isn't much of a sacrifice, then someone's
willingness to do it isn't much of a signal of their
commitment to a charity, which was the proposed
explanation that I was re
d. Many people would not give
money to someone soliciting for a race by itself, or for someone
soliciting for a cancer charity by itself, but they do give money
to someone soliciting for a cancer run. Why the extra willingness to
donate to this combined solicitation?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTE
able to download for free.
You'd need very good estimates of the size of groups that sit down to
watch the movie together to infer what you want from this data.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
ood for them? Can't elite
advisors be irrational too? For example, might not the self-interest of
academics, as sellers of schooling, bias their advice on schooling?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
enomena in elites and their advisors. At which point just feeling sure
is not enough.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Bryan D Caplan wrote:
But under the theories of irrationality [discussed] here, people can be
quite wrong, and irrationally wrong, even when they feel comfortable and
feel pretty sure. If you're going to posit an irrational [in]ability to
reason and accept advise in ordinary people, you must be
fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
... the driver of my airport shuttle ... his investments. ... insisted
that he was *fast* - he was simply faster at spotting the trend than the
average investor. ... how much of investing behavior is based on
self-assesment vs. rational expectations? In other words,
fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
I presume you mean irrationaly optimistic self-assesment? I'd say quite
a lot. But then comes the
hard question: what policy implications follow from this conclusion?
Yes, irrat self-assesment is a good word for it. Robin, I know you are a
fan of taxing peo
Fred Foldvary wrote:
--- Robin Hanson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
irrationaly optimistic self-assesment?
It is true that many investors are overconfident of their abilities and
wrongly think they can beat the averages.
But why call this "irrational"?
It seems to me tha
But unless you have a way to tell which
charity recipients fall into which class, it is hard to see how to help
them overall.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
rkets: www.PolicyAnalysisMarket.org
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
learly be the one to beat.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
l pay the phone bill.
Huh? This can't possibly be right. People could choose a cheaper mortgage,
fewer children, etc. In a world with a median income of ~$3000, someone who
makes ten times that much surely can choose to spend thousands on charity
if they want to.
Robin Hanson [EM
s are
watched how much is in an amazingly primitive state. "Sweeps" weeks are
because that is the main time they try to measure who is watching. So
maybe the just don't measure viewing in the summer, reducing the incentive
to attract viewers then.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] h
nd it didn't matter whether you had 1 child or 10.
Are employees with more kids more attractive as employees? If so, this
this could be a compensating wage. Otherwise, perhaps people feel a social
obligation to help support children in the society.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTEC
27;m
somewhat at a loss to think of what particular rules I would teach GMU
undergraduates to take up half of an Econ 101 class. Of course one could
just grab material from current marketing 101 classes. But is learning to
market really that important?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://ha
mably many ways to disperse
a decision process and make it robust to random errors, and some of those
ways may be compatible with pretty optimal behavior.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA
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