Here is a WaPo story n the late calls by media Decision Desks from
yesterday:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/biden-victory-media-call-delay/2020/11/07/58cd5198-210f-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html
Basically,Mathe long delay even when the outcome seemed clear at least by
Friday
> I think a big part of the problem is that characteristics of many Trump
voters makes them hostile and suspicious of the media and pollsters. More
than ever before, the sample of adults who agree to take a poll is
systematically different than the population of voters. This is going to be
a
I doubt they conferred, working in isolation and independently is a big
part of the process. They probably have several criteria, but the .5 rule
(or rather, the outside the recount threshold rule) is probably one they
all have.
I think what happened in PA was that they probably had hit all of
Thanks for the AP criteria in that. But my question is Since at least
3or 4 main tv Nets made the declaration on air within 60 seconds of each
other, are they all waiting on the same criteria???
Or did they all align on criteria and a phone call?
I figured they all chatted on making the
More support fir Nate Silver’s theory that the call for PA, and hence the
election was held until the PA lead exceeded .5%, from the AP:
“By Saturday afternoon, Biden’s lead in the state had climbed to over
34,000 votes, an edge over Trump of 0.51 percentage points that placed him
outside the
Cell phones may be part of the problem, but polls of all kinds, internet,
landline, in person, cell phone, all are going to show about a 3.5 point
polling error. That is not horrible, but twice in two cycles significant
and in same direction.
I think a big part of the problem is that
Actually, the only real problem you mentioned is the fact that your brother
has two phones.
The days of each household having only one, maybe two telephone lines are
long gone.
Perhaps we'll have to go back to mailed questionnaires -- along with
financial incentives.
On Sat, Nov 7, 2020 at 1:21
My cell sends out texts way slower than it receives them.
It also has the tendency to misfire alarms/calendar reminders one hour
before or after the actual time... I immediately thought my brother Allen,
who uses two phones neither the same model as mine, had that problem today,
tho he
CNN found "memos" telling Fox News talent not to use the term
"President-elect" following the clinch...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/06/media/fox-news-election-projection-plan/index.html
(link)
...*but* Bret Baier did...
ABC also.
Looks like Nate Silver was right, they were waiting for the margin in PA to
get to .5%. Latest results from Allegheny County put him over that mark.
On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:30 AM PGage wrote:
> CNN makes the Call
>
> https://www.cnn.com/
>
>
>
> On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:20 AM PGage
Yes, Nate doesn't do his own polling.
And the polling is where the problems are. I predict a lot of friction at
the next AAPOR (American Association for Public Opinion Research) meeting.
My semi-educated guess: cell phone problem not solved and may never be
solved.
On Sat, Nov 7, 2020 at
CNN makes the Call
https://www.cnn.com/
On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:20 AM PGage wrote:
> Nate Silver has a thankless job (luckily he is making a lot of money, so
> doesn’t need thanks). No matter how many times and how many different ways
> he tries to explain the nature if probabilistic
Nate Silver has a thankless job (luckily he is making a lot of money, so
doesn’t need thanks). No matter how many times and how many different ways
he tries to explain the nature if probabilistic prediction, most people
will neither understand nor care.
My Electoral College prediction map, which
But of course, some consider it more important that Silver admit he isn't
perfect, to which he replied "F*** you, we did a good job"...
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-nate-silver-fires-back-at-fivethirtyeight-critics-20201105-d5ho3nfkmrc2lo7tsags6jtdi4-story.html
(link/possible
I suspect either Cuomo did not really say that, or if he said it, he is
wrong. Note that the decision desks are pretty much firewalled off from the
news desks at all outlets, so Cuomo has no role in making projections, and
probably does not know more about it then the rest of us watching closely.
This is disingenuous bullshit. If the standard on Tuesday for Illinois is
different than the standard on Saturday for Georgia, then that's a *you*
problem. At that point, the media should do one of two things:
1. Openly admit that they have changed their standards and justify their
reasoning
I like Brian Williams a lot; can’t think of any TV news anchor currently
working I like better. Maddow has her problems, but I find her deep dives
are at least as often enlightening as they are performative and self
indulgent (and of course sometimes both). Surprised you like Hayes >
Maddow, I
Apparently (and I'm getting this second-hand from Twitter, so use at least a
grain of salt), Chris Cuomo admitted on CNN tonight that part of the reluctance
to call the races is that Trump has lied about the process so much that they
need to be 100% certain, rather than somewhere in the 90s.
> At this point many including myself are wondering if news outlets are
> reluctant to call the race out of fear of what Trump will say/do as
> reprisal.
I doubt it. The East Cupcake Pennysaver may be worried about blowback, but
the media whose calls we care about are well enough established to
Williams isn't bad when he's not trying to impress the viewer with how clever
he is.
The others (and, really, Hayes is the only one I watch regularly) at least are
articulate and have points of view I, mostly, agree with. I can easily see,
though, how anyone could find any of them
On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 9:25 PM davesik...@gmail.com
wrote:
> The conventional wisdom that MSNBC is the mirror image of Fox always
> baffles me. Maddow, Hayes, and Reid are liberal; everyone is either
> hardline centrist or a not-so-former Republican. Being not-Trump isn't
> really enough.
>
I’d
The conventional wisdom that MSNBC is the mirror image of Fox always baffles
me. Maddow, Hayes, and Reid are liberal; everyone is either hardline centrist
or a not-so-former Republican. Being not-Trump isn't really enough.
--Dave Sikua
On Friday, November 6, 2020, 9:17:50 PM PST, Kevin M.
I do hope they finalize the election and Biden wins so I can make
legitimate criticisms of MSNBC without it seeming like I’m agreeing with
Trump
On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 8:32 PM davesik...@gmail.com
wrote:
> I like Maddow when she's a guest on a talk show and is forced to be a
> little more
I like Maddow when she's a guest on a talk show and is forced to be a little
more succinct, but when she launches one of her 20-minute jury summations on
her own show, I can't stand it. It makes me long for the days of Olbermann's
unhinged rants.
--Dave Sikula
On Friday, November 6, 2020,
Rachel can sometimes be a bit much, but Reid drives me crazy.
On Fri, 6 Nov 2020 at 6:15 PM 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV <
tvornottv@googlegroups.com> wrote:
> Probably for the best, given her propensity to filibuster. I'd be happy
> with just Hayes, Wallace, and Reid (and, of course, Karnacki).
I knew I should have checked it, but I was riveted by Hannity melting down.
--Dake Sivula
On Friday, November 6, 2020, 6:24:59 PM PST, David Lynch
wrote:
On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 8:15 PM 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV
wrote:
Karnacki
This spelling of his name is giving me images of
From: 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV [mailto:tvornottv@googlegroups.com]
>Probably for the best, given her propensity to filibuster. I'd be happy with
>just Hayes, Wallace, and Reid (and, of course, Karnacki).
Fwiw, it appears Leslie Jones is ride-or-die for Mr. K, and accepts no
substitutes….
On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 8:15 PM 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV <
tvornottv@googlegroups.com> wrote:
> Karnacki
>
This spelling of his name is giving me images of Steve Kornacki holding an
envelope up to his forehead and predicting how many votes will be in the
next drop.
--
David J. Lynch
Probably for the best, given her propensity to filibuster. I'd be happy
with just Hayes, Wallace, and Reid (and, of course, Karnacki).
--Dave Sikula
On Friday, November 6, 2020 at 5:48:18 PM UTC-8 Kevin M. (RPCV) wrote:
> Maddow is quarantined since someone she knows closely tested positive
Maddow is quarantined since someone she knows closely tested positive for
Covid
https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1324855524454764550?s=21
On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 2:10 PM Doug Eastick wrote:
> saw this link on twitter from a guy that generates HTML from various
> data. kinda handy
saw this link on twitter from a guy that generates HTML from various
data. kinda handy rather than watching TV :)
http://fourlongyearsisalmostover.herokuapp.com/
from https://twitter.com/spudtrooper/status/1324816348468359168
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You received this message because you are subscribed to
I was watching live when Trump took the lead in GA early this morning
(Kornacki had it before it was even reported on the main relevant Twitter
feeds), and woke up in time to see him take the lead in PA later this
morning.
I think we are starting to get to the point where a call for the whole
I think there are a couple of things going on. The first is that whoever is
the first to call the election for Biden (and we're basically at the point
where the next state does it) is going to get destroyed by the Trumpettes.
Part of me thinks they may be waiting for Fox News to bite the bullet
For two days my primary news source has been the AP Election Map via
Google. Late last night I awoke and checked it to see Biden finally having
a majority in Georgia, then this morning I saw Pennsylvania in Biden’s
favor.
At this point many including myself are wondering if news outlets are
When I tried it a few minutes ago, two of them were reporting on the county
just west of mine in PA... one of the local papers made a big series of how
the area -- majority Dems -- flipped to Donnie in 2016... B
Doug Eastick, to Adam Bowie, Dave Sikula, Joe Hass, and PGage, Nov 6th:
> Adam -
It's pretty cool isn't it? It's like something you'd find on a screen in a
newsroom. Lots of options for channels just by clicking on a screen -
including notices where there are geo-restrictions in place.
And it's worth noting that the icon just above the numbers on the right
lets you go
Adam - thanks for that link. Such an easy thing to use.
On Fri, Nov 6, 2020 at 5:45 AM Adam Bowie wrote:
> I wish I'd found this on election night, but I found this really useful
> facility built by a developer from The Times (of London) that lets you
> watch multiple simultaneous YouTube
I wish I'd found this on election night, but I found this really useful
facility built by a developer from The Times (of London) that lets you
watch multiple simultaneous YouTube streams of news channels including the
ability to mute all, or pick the sound of which channel you want to hear:
Perhaps I exaggerated a tad. It wasn't quite a meltdown, but he was
obviously really pissed off by what Trump had just said about Biden having
no way to make up votes and was jabbing at the screen like someone's
grandfather trying to get their iPhone to respond.
--Dave Sikula
On Thursday,
However, I did find Kelly Ripa riffing on Kornacki...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgtPeEbPcGk (link)
B
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I have some right-leaning media critics like Brian Tyler Cohen shoveled to
me on the 'toob, but they haven't piped up as of this post.
Joe Hass, to Dave Sikula's response to PGage, Nov 5th:
> Does anyone have a link to The Kornacki Meltdown? I would like to see that.
>
> I, too, was following
Does anyone have a link to The Kornacki Meltdown? I would like to see that.
On Thu, Nov 5, 2020, 03:47 'Dave Sikula' via TVorNotTV <
tvornottv@googlegroups.com> wrote:
> I, too, was following the MSNBC/CNN/ABC path, the first because I like the
> anchors (I share your feelings about Ms. Wallace,
I, too, was following the MSNBC/CNN/ABC path, the first because I like the
anchors (I share your feelings about Ms. Wallace, despite her unfortunate
past), the second because it just seemed like a clusterfuck (any network
that gives Blitzer and Santorum gainful employment just leaves me
Exactly.
On Wed, 4 Nov 2020 at 6:46 PM Kevin M. wrote:
> My impersonation of John King on CNN last night:
>
> “Ok, let’s look at Florida, 2 percent has reported in, and these numbers
> could mean anything, they will change, and they just did, with 3 percent
> reporting, we see two counties
My impersonation of John King on CNN last night:
“Ok, let’s look at Florida, 2 percent has reported in, and these numbers
could mean anything, they will change, and they just did, with 3 percent
reporting, we see two counties have reported in, but these numbers aren’t
necessarily reflective of
CBS should have utilized the debate microphone MUTE button on Gayle King
constantly trying to interrupt election analysis
for her weak unfunny zingers that would barely be interesting on CBS This
Morning
Her participation was particularly horrifying next to Norah O'Donnell's
no-nonsense
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