Sean Korb via EV wrote:
You can see this coming to fruition in 11 or 12 decades...
"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." -- (a Yogi Berra-ism)


New Years is a time for reflection, and considerations about the future. Personally, I think the future will be just like the past, with only a few superficial changes. The present is incredibly obstinate and persistent. The old man that caricatures the old year *does not die*. Instead, he just keeps going. He tells the new year's kid, "Shut up; you're too young, too inexperienced; you don't know what you're doing. The new year will still be run by me, just like it always has."

As a rule, things don't change until there is overwhelming pressure to force a change. For example, we had EVs 100 years ago; and we have them today. In both cases, they represent a tiny minority of the vehicles on the road.

But there are tipping points. Once in a while, we have an opportunity to look out ahead of the Titanic, see the iceberg, and actually change course *before* the disaster. It may be too late to completely avoid it; the ship may still hit; but perhaps won't be as badly damaged, and more people can be saved.

I don't think the EV movement has yet reached its tipping point. We're shouting; but people aren't listening. Too many people still buy cars based on style, and won't even consider an EV for their next purchase. EVs are still attacked not on their technical merits (they work), but on their social and esthetics (they're ugly, they're expensive, they can't refuel easily enough, they're not like my present car...) The auto and oil industries could still pull out, just like they did in 2000... and they *will* do so if it means more short-term profit.

What will the future hold in 100 years? I haven't a clue! I can't even guess what will happen in 2018. But I am afraid it will look a lot like it did 100 years ago, but overlaid with many superficial technological changes. We'll hit more icebergs, more Titanics will sink, but our erstwhile leaders will keep right on plowing ahead on the same old course, heedless of the looming disasters and opportunities being missed.
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Whether we or our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory, and a sterner sense of justice than we do. -- Wendell Berry
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Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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