On 31 Dec 2017 at 13:45, Lee Hart via EV wrote:

> What will the future hold in 100 years? ... I am afraid it will look a lot 
> like 
> it did 100 years ago, but overlaid with many superficial technological 
> changes. 

You paint a fairly pessimistic view.  Cynic that I am, I don't much 
disagree.

One trend MAY affect EVs positively, though.  

We here in the US sometimes think that we're the only ones who matter to the 
world's automakers.  That might have almost been true 40 or 50 years ago. 
But today the fastest growing region for auto sales is Asia, especially 
China.  China REALLY needs to clean up its air, and it looks as if EVs are 
going to be a substantial part of their solution.  

They're not alone.  France and the UK plan to do away with ICEV sales by 
2040.  Germany and Netherlands want them gone from showrooms by 2030, and 
Germany is pushing for this to be an EU-wide policy.  Norway's aiming for 
2025, though they want to do it with incentives rather than an outright ban. 
The smallest of the Canary Islands, El Hierro, is already making 100% of its 
electricity from wind, and wants all their vehicles to be electric by 2020.

Now, I grant you, a lot of things can change in 2 years, or 12, or 22.  
Politics is unstable and unsettled everywhere these days.  That includes 
much of the EU.  China is also infamous for lax enforcement of its own 
environmental laws.

But if even some of these policies stand, factory EVs WILL be built.  Maybe 
they won't be built here in the US, and maybe not all (or none) of the EVs 
built elsewhere will make it to our shores and our showrooms.  The way the 
US is charging full speed ahead toward those icebergs you mention, it 
wouldn't surprise me at all to see most or all US EV sales discontinued or 
curtailed. But EVs will be made SOMEWHERE, and offered for sale somewhere 
too.

I think -- I HOPE -- that we might finally be approaching that tipping point 
you mention. It's just that it's probably not happening yet here in the US, 
and it may never.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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