On 31 Dec 2017 at 13:45, Lee Hart via EV wrote: > What will the future hold in 100 years? ... I am afraid it will look a lot > like > it did 100 years ago, but overlaid with many superficial technological > changes.
You paint a fairly pessimistic view. Cynic that I am, I don't much disagree. One trend MAY affect EVs positively, though. We here in the US sometimes think that we're the only ones who matter to the world's automakers. That might have almost been true 40 or 50 years ago. But today the fastest growing region for auto sales is Asia, especially China. China REALLY needs to clean up its air, and it looks as if EVs are going to be a substantial part of their solution. They're not alone. France and the UK plan to do away with ICEV sales by 2040. Germany and Netherlands want them gone from showrooms by 2030, and Germany is pushing for this to be an EU-wide policy. Norway's aiming for 2025, though they want to do it with incentives rather than an outright ban. The smallest of the Canary Islands, El Hierro, is already making 100% of its electricity from wind, and wants all their vehicles to be electric by 2020. Now, I grant you, a lot of things can change in 2 years, or 12, or 22. Politics is unstable and unsettled everywhere these days. That includes much of the EU. China is also infamous for lax enforcement of its own environmental laws. But if even some of these policies stand, factory EVs WILL be built. Maybe they won't be built here in the US, and maybe not all (or none) of the EVs built elsewhere will make it to our shores and our showrooms. The way the US is charging full speed ahead toward those icebergs you mention, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see most or all US EV sales discontinued or curtailed. But EVs will be made SOMEWHERE, and offered for sale somewhere too. I think -- I HOPE -- that we might finally be approaching that tipping point you mention. It's just that it's probably not happening yet here in the US, and it may never. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
