On 19 Dec 2012, at 17:19, John Clark wrote:
On Mon, Dec 17, 2012 Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:
>>> the question is about a future first person points of view,
>> That is incorrect and I'm surprised at such a elementary error in
> This is rhetoric.
No, in fact it is vitally important.
>> The question is about a PRESENT first person point of view about
what that person guesses a FUTURE first person point of view will be.
> That is not necessary.
Of course it is. You are asking about the present first person point
of view of someone,
NO. read the question: it is about a future first personal event.
in this case the Helsinki Man of right now. It doesn't matter if the
answer is true, it doesn't matter if some hypothetical future
versions agree with the Helsinki Man of right now or not,
Only that matter.
all that matters is that the Helsinki man said what the Helsinki Man
believed to be true.
About his future experience. You change the questions; and avoid it by
all means. That is what we can see.
Bruno Marchal has said, and John Clark agrees, that both the Moscow
Man and the Washington Man are the Helsinki Man, and so assuming
that the Helsinki Man believed the same thing and is rational, then
the conclusion is obvious, the Helsinki Man will say that the
Helsinki man will see Washington AND Moscow.
In the 3p view, but the question is about the future 1p view, in which
case " Washington AND Moscow" is obviously excluded.
> Keep in mind that you have to convince the majority of your copies
No, and that is exactly the point! I don't have to convince the
copies about anything and I don't even have to prove that what the
Helsinki Man said was correct (although I happen to think it was,
but that's not important), I only have to prove (and I have) that is
what the Helsinki man would say if the Helsinki Man was rational and
believed as John Clark and Bruno Marchal do that the Helsinki Man
survives because the Washington Man survives and because the Moscow
But with exclusive first person experiences, and that is what all is
For example: suppose the Washington Man said the Helsinki Man's
prediction in the past about a hypothetical first person point of
view that would occur in the future turned out to be wrong, would
that mean that the Washington man would no longer feel in his gut
that he was the Helsinki Man? Of course not! That's why to follow a
chain of identity the way to go is from the present to the past not
from the present to the future.
But we have to do prediction to confirm or refute a theory on reality,
which is the present case.
The Helsinki Man doesn't know what sort of person the Helsinki Man
That's the point.
but the Washington Man knows what sort of person the Washington Man
>>> If you read the post you can see that I have no more use
pronouns for a whole. I use "H-man, W-man, M-man,
>> The few times that was attempted it did not work because Bruno
Marchal does not know who the Helsinki Man is.
> So if I use pronoun, you don't get it, and if I use H-man, etc.
you don't get it
Either "you" or "the H-Man" would work fine provided their implicit
meaning remained constant throughout the argument, but instead its
all over the map. .
> all what counts in the reasoning is the 1-3 distinction.
All that counts is that it is clear which person's first person's
view is being referred to, there are after all lots of first person
>> About half the time Bruno Marchal implicitly defines the Helsinki
Man the same way John Clark does, as anybody who remembers being the
Helsinki Man; in which case the probability of the Helsinki Man
seeing Washington in the future is 100%.
> This is just obviously wrong. It is correct in the 3p picture, but
the question was about the 1p picture.
And that's the problem right there, THERE IS NO "THE" 1P PICTURE,
THERE IS ONLY "A" 1P PICTURE!
And? This changes nothing, as the it is unique, and the H-man knows
this in advance. So it is "a" among two in the 3p picture, and "the",
among two, in the 1p picture. It is not weird as it is only an
indetermination on the person result after a self-duplication. the
math are easy to do, once you follow the protocol and read the
definition of 1p and 3p.
> You keep describing the 3p view, and not the future 1p view
That's because there actually is a "the 3p view" and there is only
one of those, but there is no unique "the future 1p view".
Indeed, that's part of the point. As Quentin said, we have the same in
There are 2 people, one in Washington and one in Moscow and they
both have "a" 1p view, or at least the Helsinki Man of right now can
hypothesize that in the future there will be such views.
Indeed, and that such views are incompatible.
>> the other half of the time Bruno Marchal implicitly defines the
Helsinki Man as someone who is currently experiencing Helsinki; in
which case the probability of the Helsinki Man seeing Washington in
the future (or anything else for that matter) is 0% because in the
future nobody will be experiencing Helsinki anymore.
What word didn't you understand?
It is the argument which seems to be weird, and just not address the
> W and M refers to the 1-p experience itself,
And neither of those people did Bruno Marchal ask any questions of,
Bruno Marchal posed a question to the Helsinki man and at that time
neither the W or the M man existed, so I think it's safe to say that
at the time those people simply had no opinion on the matter.
You forget again that it is the h-man who survives, and that it is the
H-man who is indeterminate about the W and M experience. Obviously,
once the experience is done, both can say if he see W or if he see M,
and confirm the probability evaluated in H.
> you have already agree, W and M are exclusive incompatible
Yes, but both remember being the Helsinki Man, so although different
both ARE the Helsinki Man,
Exactly, and that is why the question makes sense.
so if Rational and asked "what city will the Helsinki Man see" the
Helsinki Man would respond "Moscow AND Washington".
If he was asked on the 3p view after the duplication. But he was asked
about its future 1p view, and he knows they will be exclusive.
And then Bruno Marchal will say that John Clark is confusing the 1p
and the 3p, and then John Clark will say that at the time the
question was asked the two pees produce identical answers because at
the time there was only one person to ask questions of, and the only
rational answer to the question that one person could give is
"Moscow AND Washington"
> So you have P(W)+P(M) = 1, in this protocol. But with "your
theory" P(W)+P(M) = 2.
So according to your logic if the probability that my name is "John"
is 100% and the probability that my name is "Clark" is 100% then the
probability that my name is "John Clark" is 200%. Hmm, that logic
doesn't seem to work very well.
Your name is "Clark" is just not an exclusive event with respect to
your name is "John", but W and M are first person *exclusive* events.
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