# Re: Why you should do the unexpected bet in front of a QS experiment ?

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On 10 Jan 2013, at 20:37, Quentin Anciaux wrote:```
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It's not working just fine if *repeated* occurence of such *extremelly low probability* occurs.
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I recall that you are the one who insisted for fixing a final world/ date in which we evaluate the theories (MWI, ~MWI), without any forward shots. I agree that a sequence of little miracles can seem more miraculous than one big miracle. But the seeming can be deceiving/ misleading, and that is why we resume the discussion in term of probabilities. Then the problem is that in term of probabilities, the event of being selected in a big concrete set (MWI) is equivalent with the event of being selected concretely in a big set of mathematical possibilities (collapsing wave). The probability is just a very tiny one, so strongly tiny that the witnesses in the final world will get mad, I think.
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If you say it's fine, then you're simply saying probability is meaningless.
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The problem is that the witnesses in the final world have lived a stochastic miracle. I am sensible that it seems a bit less miraculous with MWI than with collapse, but this is just because the collapse does not make sense to me right at the start. If it did, I would no more see why the event would be more miraculous than without collapse, as the selection in both case appears with the same probabilities.
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A non null probability event can happen, whatever the probabilities come from.
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```I wonder what measurement you'll accept to falsify a theory ?
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But here, due to the fact that we put ourselves at the place of people living a stochastic miracle, we have to admit that their experiences, challenge QM, that is both QM-MWI and QM-collapse. Starting from that, the point consists in defending if it is less miraculous with MWI or with ~MWI, and your point is not convincing in that respect, for the witness, even if, as we have agreed I think, it can be for the experimenter (but not completely: he might get a second thought and put the gun in the dress thinking he might have just been incredibly lucky: no one get a proof 'course).
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And it seems to me that this is made more obvious if you realize that in the normal worlds of the experimenter, she is the only one 'guy on the planet surviving, all the time, the super-gun shot. Like if both QM-MWI and QM-collapse continues to work perfectly, except when apply to her, where they are both statistically disconfirmed.
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Your argument is not valid on "Tegmark's point", but it might be developed into an argument for MWI, following another line than probability. I would agree that the infinite case, where on a planet some family survives the QS since many generation and continue to do so, would make MWI more plausible, as in the limit the probability is zero (but of course we are never at that limit). Here your point that, MWI justifies, at least, the necessary existence of such "impossible" event might make sense. But you have to work out that more, imo. Hmm... They (the people on that planet) might just believe in the collapse by "enough" consciousness, so that only that family got the consciousness enough to prevent the collapse on the "bang", I dunno, I try hard to find sense in your intuition.
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Bruno

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Regardsn
Quentin

2013/1/10 meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net>
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You can as well say collapse is saved because P=10^-6 > 0 and so probability calculus is working just fine. Collapse and MWI use the same probability calculus.
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Brent

On 1/10/2013 10:42 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
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Yes but in QM + collapse it is a potentiality which happen according to the probability in mwi it is a proportion, it always happen. If the event always happen your prior probability calculus is severly broken. Mwi is saved because in mwi probability are not about happening but are proportions in qm+collapse it is about happening.
```Quentin

Le 10 janv. 2013 19:34, "meekerdb" <meeke...@verizon.net> a écrit :
On 1/10/2013 7:37 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
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No, I say it can no more happen in collapse theory without *a very good* explanation principle. I'm sorry but if the theory predict it happens with a 1/10⁹ probability of occurence and every time you test it, it happens... I'd say your prior probability calculus is screwed, so without a *good* explanation, your theory can be said to be falsified. As I said, the *good* explanation with MWI is that *it does* happen.
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But MWI also predicts P=10^-6.

Brent
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