On Wednesday, January 30, 2013 12:27:23 PM UTC-5, telmo_menezes wrote:
>
>
>
>
> On Tue, Jan 29, 2013 at 7:00 PM, Craig Weinberg 
> <whats...@gmail.com<javascript:>
> > wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, January 29, 2013 7:18:25 AM UTC-5, telmo_menezes wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 8:47 PM, Craig Weinberg <whats...@gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Monday, January 28, 2013 1:05:28 PM UTC-5, telmo_menezes wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Hi Craig,
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 5:37 PM, Craig Weinberg <whats...@gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Monday, January 28, 2013 7:24:11 AM UTC-5, telmo_menezes wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hi Roger,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I agree with you, peace and freedom are not possible on this earth 
>>>>>>> without strong militaries. Game theory shows that to be the case.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Which is why game theory tends to produce results which are amoral 
>>>>>> and ideological. 
>>>>>>
>>>>>  
>>>>> Amoral, sure. Ideological, I don't get it.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> By reducing the possibilities of human behavior of a game, you are 
>>>> automatically pushing a reductionist agenda.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I think you're overestimating my influence :)
>>>
>>
>> I meant "you" in more of the 'royal' sense - that the influence of game 
>> theory on anyone is to enlist them into a behaviorist mode.
>>  
>>
>>>  
>>>
>>>> Short term instrumental thinking and reactionary postures are elevated 
>>>> above long term creative collaboration and innovation. The first rule of 
>>>> the game is: the rules don't change. That is a conservative ideology.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I have no stakes in the liberals vs. conservatives game.
>>>
>>
>> I was thinking of a more generic use of 'conservative', but ok.
>>  
>>
>>>  I try to reach my own conclusions, so I imagine I will agree with the 
>>> liberals on some issues and the conservatives on others. There are many 
>>> levels of games and many levels of rules. If we are talking about a rule 
>>> like "marriage is between people of opposite genders", then sure I agree 
>>> with you. It's just a social construct that some people like. Money is also 
>>> a social construct and we can re-design it. The options here are 
>>> ideological, because some options appeal more to you than others, according 
>>> to a certain view on how society could be better.
>>>
>>> What I'm saying, though, is that even if 99% of the countries on earth 
>>> reach a higher level of civilisation and decide for cooperation instead of 
>>> agression, they are still vulnerable to the 1% that could build an atomic 
>>> bomb. Even if 100% reach the higher level, someone could go back, so you're 
>>> always vulnerable. We can try to estimate the probability of such an event 
>>> happening. I figure it's never low enough for world-wide disarmament being 
>>> a rational choice because of neuro-diversity. A certain percentage of the 
>>> human population is comprised of sociopaths.
>>>
>>
>> A certain percentage of sociopaths are also going to make sure that they 
>> are in control of the arms. I don't think that there is any way to tell 
>> whether disarmament is a greater risk than non-disarmament, so to be safe 
>> we should probably disarm. 
>>
>
> The invention of atomic bombs is only possible by a sophisticated society. 
> This level of sophistication seems to come with other things, namely forms 
> of government where no single idiot has the level of absolute power 
> necessary to launch a nuclear bomb by himself. That's why the invention of 
> the atomic bomb wasn't the great filter for humanity.
>

Now that they have been invented though, it is indeed possible for a single 
idiot to detonate a nuclear device.
 

>  
>
>> The fewer atomic bombs there are, the lower the chance that any will be 
>> used. 
>>
>
> All other things being equal. But you're ignoring balance of power and 
> imperfect information.
>

If a bomb gets diverted from a stockpile by insiders, then the geopolitics 
won't matter at all. If there aren't any stockpiles - that can't happen.
 

>  
>
>> Game theory doesn't take into account that it is not unlikely that the 
>> people who are making the decisions are themselves paranoid and insane, and 
>> that they also see themselves as the only rational actors.
>>
>
> I think game theorists take that into account, and possible advise 
> politicians in the western world to have a zero tolerance policy towards 
> under-developed nations acquiring WMDs.
>

That wasn't what I was saying though. Sure, no paranoid insane leader wants 
any other country to have WMD - they could be just as insane. Which game 
theory, however, takes into account the you, the architect of the theory, 
and the first world strategist who applies it, is not paranoid and insane 
themselves? Applying game theory outside of the the context of games, may 
in fact be an expression of narcissistic personality disorder and 
sociopathic ideation.

 
>
>>  
>>
>>>   
>>>
>>>>  
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm with you in strongly disliking war and violence, by the way. I 
>>>>> just don't see a way to survive and be free without an equilibrium based 
>>>>> on 
>>>>> fire power. I wish that wasn't the case, but what's the way out?
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I think the best hope is technology which puts us into other people's 
>>>> experience. Communications media have helped us learn about the 
>>>> perspectives of other people, so maybe if we confront the unedited 
>>>> realities of each other's experience it will take us to the next level. 
>>>> Otherwise, I donno, maybe there is no way out?
>>>>
>>>
>>> Ok, I like that idea.
>>>
>>
>> Cool.
>>  
>>
>>>  
>>>
>>>>
>>>>   
>>>>>
>>>>>>  
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The problem in the USA, though, is the in(famous) 
>>>>>>> military-industrial complex. Powerful corporations profit incredibly 
>>>>>>> from 
>>>>>>> war. That's the wrong incentive. They should profit from peace. The 
>>>>>>> government should not be allowed to pay for bombs, but only for the 
>>>>>>> availability of bombs, through agreements that pay the same weather the 
>>>>>>> bombs are used or not.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What is the difference between paying for bombs and paying for an 
>>>>>> availability of bombs? Like they can buy only stock options, but not 
>>>>>> stock? 
>>>>>> Why would the government want to buy the availability of bombs which 
>>>>>> they 
>>>>>> cannot use?
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> They can use them, but they pay a flat rate for the availability. If 
>>>>> it doesn't matter if they use more or less, powerful private interests 
>>>>> have 
>>>>> less incentive to lobby for war.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I'm not sure that I understand the model. The flat rate would either 
>>>> have to be so high that the arms manufacturers would be covered no matter 
>>>> how much they use or else or they will adjust the quality of their product 
>>>> to match the rate. If its just availability and not possession, then the 
>>>> arms dealers would just play shell games and Ponzi schemes to give the 
>>>> illusion of inventory.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Which is precisely what both the USA and the USSR did during the cold 
>>> war. They used all sorts of tricks to create an exaggerated estimation of 
>>> their own fire power by the other side.
>>>
>>
>> Reminds me of the old Star Trek ep where war had progressed to a 
>> virtualized stage. 
>>
>
> There's also this:
>
> http://www.amazon.com/Peace-Earth-Stanislaw-Lem/dp/015602814X/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1359566755&sr=8-2&keywords=peace+on+earth
>
> War was moved to the moon and is fought by robots.
>

Cool. Humans could even fight them with each other if they wanted to. I'm 
only against involuntary violence.
 

>  
>
>>
>> Also this...
>>
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1Q-VZYbbS4
>>
>
> :)
>  
>
>>
>>
>> Thanks,
>> Craig
>>
>>   
>>> Peace,
>>> Telmo.
>>>
>>>
>>>> Thanks,
>>>> Craig
>>>>  
>>>>
>>>>>  
>>>>>
>>>>>>  
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>  
>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>> Telmo.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 12:56 PM, Roger Clough 
>>>>>>> <rcl...@verizon.net>wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>  Hi John Mikes 
>>>>>>>>  
>>>>>>>> You wrongly assume that the killing power of the infantry 
>>>>>>>> necessarily has to do with imperialism or aggression.  I
>>>>>>>> believe in PEACE THROUGH SUPERIOR FIREPOWER.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> That's part of the "Vietnam Never Happened" historical revisionist 
>>>>>> portfolio. A simple idea, but not really very useful since 1945. 
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Craig
>>>>>>  
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   
>>>>>>>>  
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ----- Receiving the following content ----- 
>>>>>>>> *From:* John Mikes 
>>>>>>>> *Receiver:* everything-list 
>>>>>>>> *Time:* 2013-01-27, 12:31:36
>>>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: The "fairness" argument and women in the infantry
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>  Roger -� 
>>>>>>>> thank you for your clear-minded post. I my add: there is a shortage 
>>>>>>>> of men for the imperialistic politics the US seems to pursue and 
>>>>>>>> without 
>>>>>>>> resoring to general draft only the female input is hopeful.�
>>>>>>>> John Mikes
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Sun, Jan 27, 2013 at 5:26 AM, Roger Clough 
>>>>>>>> <rcl...@verizon.net>wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>  �
>>>>>>>>> The "unfairness" argument爁or allowing women into the infantry
>>>>>>>>> is emotionally based, thus爃ard to defend against, so that 
>>>>>>>>> regrettably 
>>>>>>>>> I fell for it. 燭he argument is that爊ot allowing women into the 
>>>>>>>>> infantry is unfair to women because "they are just as good as men" 
>>>>>>>>> at fighting,� and not allowing them in the infantry is unfair to 
>>>>>>>>> their advancement.
>>>>>>>>> �
>>>>>>>>> This pov has been tested by the Bristih military, and it was 
>>>>>>>>> withdrawn
>>>>>>>>> after 18 months because it didn't work.�
>>>>>>>>> �
>>>>>>>>> The function of the military is to insure our national security, 
>>>>>>>>> not
>>>>>>>>>  to be fair to women, so that the correct question should be, 
>>>>>>>>> instead,
>>>>>>>>> "will allowing women into the infantry improve the killing power 
>>>>>>>>> of the military ?"
>>>>>>>>> �
>>>>>>>>> �
>>>>>>>>>  
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