On Thu, Jul 11, 2013  Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:

>> Turing proved 80 years ago that in general you can't predict what an
>> external purely deterministic system will do,
>>
>

> In the long run, and without any indeterminacy in the functioning of its
> parts. Yes. We might not know if the machine will stop or not, but whatever
> happens is determined by the initial digital conditions.
>

Yes, and that means that determinism and predictability are NOT the same
thing.

> That has nothing to do with the First Person Indeterminacy
>

If we can't predict what a external complex system will do then we can't
predict what another complex system, ourselves, will see or do either.
Because of this some will just say "I dunno what city I will see next or
what I will do about it when I do see it" while others who wish to be more
pompous will say "not knowing what city I will see is an example of First
Person Indeterminacy". The term "First Person Indeterminacy" may be a new
invention of yours but the idea behind it was well known in the stone age.


> > nor the quantum indeterminacy.
>

Those two things are apparently unrelated (although who knows, I wouldn't
be too surprised if it later turned out there was some sort of
connection),  but the fact that some events have no cause and that in the
real world no complex system is 100% deterministic only makes what I said
above stronger.


> >> all we can do is watch it and see; and as for the first person
>> expectation we've known for much much longer than 80 years that often
>> (perhaps usually) we don't know what we are going to do until we do it.
>>
>
>
> So when you put water on the gas, your theory to predict what you will
> experience is just wait and see?
>

Read what I said again, I didn't say you can never know what you can do
next, I said you can't always know what you will do next, and (perhaps)
usually we don't. And there is no foolproof way to separate the times when
we can reliably make predictions from the times when we can not; so even
when we're making good prophecies we can't always be certain that they are
in fact good prophecies.

The end result of all this is that predicting is hard, especially the
future.

  John K Clark

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