On Thu, Jul 11, 2013 Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote: >> Turing proved 80 years ago that in general you can't predict what an >> external purely deterministic system will do, >> >
> In the long run, and without any indeterminacy in the functioning of its > parts. Yes. We might not know if the machine will stop or not, but whatever > happens is determined by the initial digital conditions. > Yes, and that means that determinism and predictability are NOT the same thing. > That has nothing to do with the First Person Indeterminacy > If we can't predict what a external complex system will do then we can't predict what another complex system, ourselves, will see or do either. Because of this some will just say "I dunno what city I will see next or what I will do about it when I do see it" while others who wish to be more pompous will say "not knowing what city I will see is an example of First Person Indeterminacy". The term "First Person Indeterminacy" may be a new invention of yours but the idea behind it was well known in the stone age. > > nor the quantum indeterminacy. > Those two things are apparently unrelated (although who knows, I wouldn't be too surprised if it later turned out there was some sort of connection), but the fact that some events have no cause and that in the real world no complex system is 100% deterministic only makes what I said above stronger. > >> all we can do is watch it and see; and as for the first person >> expectation we've known for much much longer than 80 years that often >> (perhaps usually) we don't know what we are going to do until we do it. >> > > > So when you put water on the gas, your theory to predict what you will > experience is just wait and see? > Read what I said again, I didn't say you can never know what you can do next, I said you can't always know what you will do next, and (perhaps) usually we don't. And there is no foolproof way to separate the times when we can reliably make predictions from the times when we can not; so even when we're making good prophecies we can't always be certain that they are in fact good prophecies. The end result of all this is that predicting is hard, especially the future. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to firstname.lastname@example.org. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.