On Tue, Jul 7, 2015  Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote:

​>> ​
>
> that's a pretty dull thought experiment. if everything in the universe
> will get a cup of coffee then it doesn't matter what the referent to "you"
> is because whatever it is he she or it will get some coffee. What's your
> point? ​
>


​> ​
> If you agree that P(experience of getting a cup of coffee soon") = 1,
>

​If everything and everyone will ​get coffee then obviously I will get
coffee too regardless of what "I" means. And I still don't see your point.


> ​> ​
> then you have to agree that
> ​
> P(experience of opening the door and writing W or opening the door and
> writing M in a personal diary) = 1,
>

​Or? Is that a exclusive or? If it's a OR gate then P=1. If it's a XOR gate
then P=0.


> ​> ​
> and that
> ​
> P(experience of writing "W and M" in a personal diary) = 0.
>

​Nonsense. I can show you the diaries proving that the Helsinki Man did
write "I see Moscow" AND did write "I see Washington". ​

>
> ​> ​
> you can predict in advance that after pushing the button, you are in front
> of *one* door, and that behind that door there is *one* precise city, and
> that you have no clue which one it could be.
>

​Maybe that's what you would predict only you know that, but I know for a
fact that's not what I would predict. I would say "I the Helsinki Man
predict that ​I will see Moscow AND Washington" ; and events would later
prove that the prediction was correct. Not that predictions, good bad or
mediocre, have anything to do with the nature of personal identity or
consciousness.


​  John K Clark​

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