On Sat, Aug 5, 2017 at 10:04 AM, Stathis Papaioannou <stath...@gmail.com>
wrote:


> ​
>> ​>> ​
>> Without the ​duplicating machine after it's all over you can say
>> "Yesterday I shouldn't have said there is a 30% chance event B will happen,
>> yesterday I should have said there is a 100% chance event B will happen",
>> but if personal pronoun duplicating machines are used then "you" couldn't
>> say that. And that's not equivalent.
>>
>
> ​> ​
> If you are one of the copies experiencing event B, you can say that, had
> you known, yesterday you should have said there was a 100% chance of event
> B happening.
>

​No, Mr. B can't say that because the question wasn't about what Mr. B will
see (and everybody correctly predicted that Mr. B will see event B anyway)
the question was about what Mr. Yesterday will see. Saying Mr. Yesterday
will see B happen with 100% certainty is the truth but NOT the entire
truth, Mr. Yesterday will also see A ​happen with 100% certainty because
Mr. Yesterday has been duplicated, that's what people duplicating machines
do. And that means today there will be 2 people, not just Mr. B, who
remembers yesterday.

Not everything is
​ ​
unitary, that is to say summing up all the probabilities of the
​ ​
possible
​ ​
outcomes of a event don't always add up to 100%. If I slice a orange in
half and put the pieces in 2 boxes there is a 100% chance there is a orange
object in box A and a 100% chance there is a orange object in box B.


> ​> ​
> However, you could not have known, because what each copy experiences is
> irreducibly random. Not even an omniscient oracle could instil in a person
> undergoing duplication knowledge of the future which would turn out correct
> for each copy.
>

​I'm not a ​
omniscient oracle
​ ​ but even I can say
which would turn out correct for each copy
​.  Mr. A will see A and Mr. B will see B. What more is there to say? What
exactly have I failed to predict?​ And by the way, if a
omniscient oracle
​ can't answer a question that can only be because it wasn't a question.

 John K Clark​

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