On Sat, 5 Aug 2017 at 4:26 am, John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Aug 3, 2017 at 7:14 PM, Stathis Papaioannou <stath...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> ​> ​
>> You seem to agree that it's obvious the duplicating machine won't make a
>> difference.
>
>
> Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. ​With or without a ​
> duplicating machine
> ​
> ​looking into the past
> you will
> ​ always know with 100% certainty what you did or did not see, and with
> or without a ​
> duplicating machine
> ​ looking into the future you can never predict with 100% certainty what
> you will see next and the best you can do is resort to probabilities.
> However without a duplicating machine, although you still can't make a
> prediction beforehand with 100% certainty, afterword you can know with 100%
> certainty what the correct prediction would have been, but that's
> not possible if duplicating machines are in the mix and it's not
> possible
> ​because then the following 2 sentences are NOT ​equivalent:
>
> 1) What will you end up seeing?
> 2) What did you end up seeing?
>
> ​
> Although
> ​ ​
> both have question marks at the end only one of them
> ​ ​
> is a question. The second one has a precise answer, the first one doesn't
> have a
> ​n​
> answer, not even a
> ​​
> approximate answer, not even in retrospect. They are not equivalent
> because the personal pronouns in them are not equivalent, and the personal
> pronouns are not equivalent because
> ​people​
>  duplicating machine
> ​s​
> are used and because the past and the future are not equivalent. We can
> remember the past but not the future.
>

The rat thinks, "I will get a reward if I go through this door". The copies
of the rat think, "great, I got the reward", or "no reward, I'm
disappointed, but I'll try again by going through this other door ". The
rat understands this at a primitive level. There is no issue of the rat
misusing pronouns, because rats don't use language.

​> ​
>> This has been the whole point of the discussion
>
>
> If
> ​ ​
> duplicating machine
> ​s​
> ​ ​
> make no difference why were they introduced into the thought experiment?
> And where is this indeterminacy I keep hearing about?
>
> ​> ​
>> looking forward to a 30% probability of a certain outcome without
>> duplication is equivalent (subjectively and behaviourally) to looking
>> forward to being copied multiple times with 30% of the copies experiencing
>> that outcome, whether you are a rat or a human.
>
>
> ​Without the ​duplicating machine after it's all over you can say
> "Yesterday I shouldn't have said there is a 30% chance event B will happen,
> yesterday I should have said there is a 100% chance event B will happen",
> but if personal pronoun duplicating machines are used then "you" couldn't
> say that. And that's not equivalent.
>

If you are one of the copies experiencing event B, you can say that, had
you known, yesterday you should have said there was a 100% chance of event
B happening. However, you could not have known, because what each copy
experiences is irreducibly random. Not even an omniscient oracle could
instil in a person undergoing duplication knowledge of the future which
would turn out correct for each copy.

> --
Stathis Papaioannou

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