current stuff
[was: Re: [PEN-L:7620] RE: Re: RE: Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01] Ian wrote: The ECI [employment cost index] has been rather benign through the '90's, no? it's quite possible that the Fed has different standards of what's benign than you or I. They triumphed over inflation on the backs of the working class, so they try to make sure that the neoliberal movement and the deunionization trend, etc. (what they might call "Truth, Justice, and the American Way" as Super AG stands arms akimbo in front of a waving American flag), continue. I think Greider is right when he suggests that the Fed allowed 4 percent unemployment only because AG feared deflation. And haven't they been moving rates to prevent capital outflows, even as they worry about the trade deficit? I don't get this, since there has been a tremendous amount of capital _inflow_, which has boosted the stock market and the dollar exchange rate. The latter has hurt the trade deficit. I don't think that the Fed has been keeping rates high in order to attract these funds. Maybe they should be worrying about future capital flight, but I haven't seen that. All else constant (as it never is), the Fed's interest-rate cuttings should lead the dollar exchange rate to fall (possibly encouraged by speculation). In fact, the dollar should fall steeply, which should moderate the U.S. near-recession at the expense of other countries -- unless their CBs cut interest rates, too. Then the question comes up: how effective are rate cuts at provoking increases in investment spending? can they "push on a string"? For what it's worth, they seem to have encouraged a housing boomlet. (The unpredicted nature of the boomlet suggests once again that the Fed can't predict the future well and thus can't fine tune the economy.) Given the FOMC meets every six weeks haven't they been far more worried about bank balance sheets in the face of high corporate debt/consumer debt even as profits have been better in the 90's than the 80's? the banks aren't suffering yet, so it's possible the Fed's not worried. Lowering rates may hurt bank incomes, BTW, which could make things worse for them. It depends on how much the banks have lots of flexible interest rate assets (T-bills, etc.) relative to fixed rate assets (long-term loans) and little in the way of flexible rate assets. I'd have to examine the data... Isn't household debt at an all time high precisely because the ECI is benign hence credit/debt inflation to keep aggregate demand afloat? Low stagnant wages -- not a low ECI -- encourages indebtedness for most people, but it's the stock market that's encouraged indebtedness for the high rollers. Asset inflation (is that what credit/debt inflation means?) helps those with lots of debts survive. If the Fed lets housing prices and stock prices plummet, then consumers of several different income classes are in deep yoghurt. This would encourage a sharp fall in consumption, perhaps sharper than what's happened recently. I don't think, however, that the Fed has been very worried about this, though likely they should be. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
More California Effluent
Howdy Penners
It was some time ago that the much-missed Jim Craven penned a memorable
screed highlighting how with ultra-radicals and ultra-conservatives, it was
most often the "ultra" that was the guiding influence, given whatever
personal quirks belonged to the individual in question. There seems to be no
better example of Jim's observation than David Horowitz, ex-Ramparts
editor...
The Nation, July 3, 2000
David Horowitz's Long March
by SCOTT SHERMAN
On October 19, 1959, Frederick Moore Jr., a freshman at the University
of California,
Berkeley, climbed the steps of Sproul Hall and began a hunger strike to
protest the university's
compulsory military-training requirement through ROTC. "I am a
conscientious objector," Moore
declared. "I object to killing and any action aiding war." David
Horowitz, a 20-year-old graduate
student in the English department, was so moved by Moore's stance that
he volunteered to
defend him at a campus debate. Horowitz's opponent, a young military
veteran, insisted that
ROTC's detractors simply lacked the guts to fight the Communists;
Horowitz disagreed.
"Wearing a uniform with a million other guys is easy; hiding behind a
gun is even easier," he
proclaimed. "All you do is what you're told; you and a million others."
Concluded Horowitz,
"Was not patriotism of this sort questionable?"
Many years later, in the fall of 1987, Horowitz received a phone call
from the office of Elliott
Abrams, an Assistant Secretary of State. It was time to fight the
Communists. "Are you willing to
serve your country?" one of Abrams's young assistants jauntily
inquired. A few weeks later,
Horowitz found himself in Managua, Nicaragua, where, at the expense of
US taxpayers, he
offered tactical advice to anti-Sandinista labor unions, politicians
and journalists, and, in the
dining room of the Intercontinental Hotel, thundered, "For the sake of
the poorest peasants in this
Godforsaken country, I can't wait for the contras to march into this
town and liberate it from
these fucking Sandinistas!"
* * *
These days, not much remains of the student who stood up to defend a
conscientious objector in
the twilight of the Eisenhower era. The years have transformed Horowitz
into a steely gladiator,
an indefatigable pugilist in the culture wars, the right's very own
Ahab. "Lapsed radicals like
ourselves are always condemned to regard the left as their Great White
Whale," Horowitz and
Peter Collier confessed in their 1991 anthology, Deconstructing the
Left. "This book is a
record of our sightings of the beast. We may not yet have set the final
harpoon, but we have
given chase."
Throughout the nineties, Horowitz spent much of his time combating
"political correctness" in
American universities. His weapon in that crusade was Heterodoxy, the
tabloid-sized monthly he
founded with Collier in 1992 and which, Horowitz has written, "is meant
to have the feel of a
samizdat publication inside the gulag of the PC university." But the
spirit of Havel and Michnik is
noticeably absent; Heterodoxy is a garish, surreal compendium of
Horowitz's obsessions and
demons, neatly packaged for right-wing consumption. There are lists
("The Ten Wackiest
Feminists on Campus"), odd cartoons (Karl Marx in drag) and admiring
letters from the next
generation ("I am 11 years old and I cannot thank you enough for
publishing this wonderful
paper...my schoolmates are a bunch of feminist, liberal, PC, vegetarian
multiculturalists"). In
1993, when the literary critic Catharine Stimpson told a reporter that
frequent attacks in
Heterodoxy had transformed her into the magazine's "centerfold," the
editors replied with a
pornographic pastiche of her in its April 1993 issue, under the caption
"ms. april."
But the PC "gulag" is just one of Horowitz's targets. His
self-appointed mandate is to sniff out
and expose leftist chicanery--real and imagined--wherever it may exist.
He is a busy man. "One
has to stigmatize the left and segregate it," Horowitz told Insight
magazine in 1989. Last year,
when the anthropologist David Stoll challenged the veracity of
Rigoberta Mench's
autobiography, Horowitz rushed to purchase advertisements in six
college newspapers
announcing: rigoberto menchu nobel laureate and marxist terrorist now
exposed as an intellectual
hoax.
Such crusades have hardly damaged his career. He has a column in the
online magazine Salon,
he contributes Op-Ed pieces to leading newspapers and rarely a day goes
by when he doesn't
appear on television or talk-radio. He is currently involved in efforts
to create a conservative talk
show on PBS. His funders admire that tireless spirit. "He's an
extremely articulate man and a
very determined fighter. I think
Re: On California Effluent
http://www.pbs.org/neighborhoods/history/daily/19-Aug.html 1987 - It was on this day that consumer reporter David Horowitz was held at gunpoint -- on camera. During a KNBC-TV newscast in Burbank, CA, Horowitz was forced to read the assailants rambling note. The news director took the program off the air until police could get the gunman off the set. Horowitz was unharmed. Michael Pugliese -Original Message- From: Keaney Michael [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: '[EMAIL PROTECTED]' [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thursday, February 01, 2001 12:03 AM Subject: [PEN-L:7642] On California Effluent Jim Devine wrote: Horowitz just surfaced again, as bad as before. yeah, he had an ad (sponsored, somewhat secretively, by the Edison Institute or something similar which had its initials posted in the bottom right-hand-side of the TV screen) against those favoring bankruptcy for PGE and Edison International. He's veering toward being the moral equivalent of the other David Horowitz, the ex-editor of the leftist magazine RAMPARTS who became an ultra-rightist. I apologize if any other people named "David Horowitz" exist and are offended by the fact that I mentioned their disgusting name-sakes. = This reminds me of an old story about the Glasgow Empire Theatre, reputedly "the graveyard of English comedians". Back in the 60s Mike and Bernie Winters were a MOR variety act; Mike singing, Bernie telling jokes. When they hit Glasgow Mike came on first and sang a few songs. There was deadly silence after each one. Mike began to sweat a little. Eventually in consternation he signalled to Bernie waiting in the wings to come on. As he did, a voice from the audience rang out: "Aw, f#*! There's two of them!" Anyway, it's frightening to know that there are two awful David Horowitzes. I thought you were referring to the same ex-Ramparts guy. What is the other's main claim to fame?
Re: Korean news
George Becker, president of the Steelworkers Union, in a William Greider article in the Jan 29th. Nation. "I'm not an economist, I just go on gut beliefs," Becker said. "But Paul is a person working people and labor people can talk to. He is an industrialist who believes in the United States and has maintained a strong industrial base in the United States. I think this is far better than having another bond trader in that job_I negotiated with Paul for years--he's very tough but fair--and we've always been able to get a fair, decent contract," said Becker, whose union represents 22,000 Alcoa workers. "I had people I could talk to in the Clinton Administration too. They would listen and tell me how much they understand our pain. Then they went out and deep-sixed us. I like [former Treasury Secretary] Bob Rubin, but Rubin killed us in steel. He would say, Let the marketplace decide. Except, when financial firms got in trouble, they went to the rescue." -Original Message- From: Keaney Michael [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: '[EMAIL PROTECTED]' [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 11:29 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7640] Korean news Howdy Penners, If you go back a couple of years to when the lovely Henry K. was touting the latest instalment of his memoirs, there was an extensive excerpt published in "Foreign Affairs" in which Dr Death tried to have it both ways (as usual). But in acknowledging the differences that arose between the great power paleoconservatives and the fiercely ideological neoconservatives (whilst reconciling these in his take on the Reagan era) he cannot dissemble enough to conceal exactly what Justin is saying. I.e., the "best minds" advocated and, where possible, practised containment. This was anathema to the neocons who emphasised the moral repugnance of communism and who preached far more aggressive policies than were countenanced by Nixon. (And which makes Bush's mass resurrection of Gerald Ford people more than a little interesting.) BTW, Henry is now bringing more western wisdom and enlightenment to the good folks of China once again, this time in the guise of a consultant for Pepsi. Apparently Nixon was an attorney for Pepsi prior to his run in 1968. Gives one a whole new perspective on the "Pepsi Generation", doesn't it? Michael K. ps. Was Paul O'Neill really so wonderful at Alcoa? There has been a flurry of press profiles which have played up his attention to worker safety there. How reliable is this?
new economy
Jim Devine wrote: the economy is _always_ new (while it's always old, too). (Half of the poli. sci. books have "continuity and and change" in their titles -- and they're right to put it there.) And I understand that someone named Doug has a book out on this subject = Doug McClure? Doug E. Fresh?
Korean news
Howdy Penners, If you go back a couple of years to when the lovely Henry K. was touting the latest instalment of his memoirs, there was an extensive excerpt published in "Foreign Affairs" in which Dr Death tried to have it both ways (as usual). But in acknowledging the differences that arose between the great power paleoconservatives and the fiercely ideological neoconservatives (whilst reconciling these in his take on the Reagan era) he cannot dissemble enough to conceal exactly what Justin is saying. I.e., the "best minds" advocated and, where possible, practised containment. This was anathema to the neocons who emphasised the moral repugnance of communism and who preached far more aggressive policies than were countenanced by Nixon. (And which makes Bush's mass resurrection of Gerald Ford people more than a little interesting.) BTW, Henry is now bringing more western wisdom and enlightenment to the good folks of China once again, this time in the guise of a consultant for Pepsi. Apparently Nixon was an attorney for Pepsi prior to his run in 1968. Gives one a whole new perspective on the "Pepsi Generation", doesn't it? Michael K. ps. Was Paul O'Neill really so wonderful at Alcoa? There has been a flurry of press profiles which have played up his attention to worker safety there. How reliable is this?
RE: More on the energy crisis
From the US' best "rural" newspaper... Power on the loose Environmental News, west California's energy crisis could very well become a Western crisis as the nationwide drive toward power deregulation continues. While a new system emerges, an energy-starved West must find a way to feed this new beast without destroying its land, water and air. http://www.hcn.org/ Ian ** BTW, the best lawyer/economist to visit the utilities question from a left perspective in the 20th century was none other than Robert Hale; one of the founders of the first "law and economics" movement. His papers are in the Columbia University library. I'm sure there's a gold mine of argumentation tools available for those who are going to make this a good fight into the future Ian
WSJ -10% of job growth was temps
Capital Temp Workers Have Lasting Effect ON ANY GIVEN DAY, more Americans owe their jobs to temporary-help outfits than are working in auto and aircraft factories. About 10% of the job growth in the 1990s was in temp agencies, twice as much as in the 1980s. Manpower Inc. boasts of being America's largest employer. Is this a temporary feature of an economy in which workers have been scarce, one that will vanish along with Alan Greenspan's halo if the U.S. is sliding into recession? Or has it become a permanent feature, a key to the pleasurable mix of low unemployment and low inflation? Clearly, it's good for employers. But is it good for workers? Temp agencies grew rapidly after state courts in the late 1970s and 1980s limited employers' ability to fire permanent workers. Temps were easier to fire than permanent workers, so employers hired more of them. Perversely, efforts "to protect workers against unjust dismissal have fostered the growth of ... jobs that offer less job security and lower pay," says David Autor, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist. Then many employers got hooked on temp agencies. Temp-agency payrolls zoomed in the 1990s as the slogan of shopkeepers became "help wanted." By 1996, according to one national survey, half of all employers and three-quarters of all manufacturers were using temp firms. Today, more than 3.3 million workers are on temp-firm placements, mostly in clerical or light-manufacturing jobs. The temp boom is a huge change in the way the economy works. It's one reason the U.S. has pushed down the unemployment rate without pushing up the inflation rate. Economists Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger estimate that the jobless rate consistent with stable inflation might be four-tenths of a percentage point higher if not for the expansion of the temp agencies. Without temps, the Federal Reserve might have put on the brakes sooner -- before the last 500,000 workers were hired. That sounds good, especially for those half-million workers. But how do temp agencies accomplish this? One way is unambiguously good: They make it easier for employers with openings and unemployed workers to find each other. The other is mixed: They allow employers to avoid raising wages. AGENCIES HELP SOME workers get jobs they wouldn't get otherwise, often screening and auditioning workers to save employers' effort. In some states, more than 20% of the people leaving welfare for work spend time in a temp-agency placement; some wouldn't get jobs unless a temp agency vouched for them. While it lasted, the tight labor market helped. "Employers were so open-minded, we could place anyone who wanted to work. Employers had the mirror test: Do they breathe?" says Debbie Barnowsky, manager of Snelling Snelling Inc.'s Auburn Hills, Mich., office. "But that's not true anymore." Temp agencies also offer a quick, free way to brush up on computer skills. In a survey of 439 temp offices, Mr. Autor found that 30% of clerical hires get training, usually seven hours of computer lessons. The firms aren't altruistic. Training allows them to charge employers higher fees and to attract both workers and employers. But that's not the whole story. Employers use temp agencies to lure sorely needed workers without raising wages for existing workers. They tinker with wages in much the same way airlines tinker with ticket prices to fill planes, says Susan Houseman, an economist at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, in Kalamazoo, Mich. Hospitals use temp-agency nurses because they say they can't fill vacancies otherwise. They mean they can't fill vacancies at the wages they're paying. "One reason temp agencies are able to get nurses and we're not is that they are paying them outrageous dollars that we won't pay," a Michigan hospital administrator who uses temps, told Upjohn economists, without apparent irony. A BIG NORTH CAROLINA hospital hires as many permanent nurses as it can at $25.76 an hour in wages and benefits. Then it fills vacancies by paying $40 for temps, of which the nurses get between $28 and $32 an hour with few fringe benefits. The winners: folks who pay hospital bills. The losers: the $26-an-hour nurses who might otherwise make more money if the nursing shortage forced hospitals to bid up wages across the board. In factories, the dynamics are different. A Midwestern auto-parts plant pays $15.67 an hour for permanent workers and $10.88 for temps, of which $7.50 goes to the workers. The company can't hire seasoned workers at the higher wage. It takes a chance on unproven workers because they're cheap and failures can be fired easily. If not for the temps, Ms. Houseman figures, the company would raise wages to lure good workers from other firms. She scores experienced workers as losers. But some temps are winners: After successful tryouts, they get permanent jobs they would never have landed otherwise. A recession will reduce the appetite for temps. "It's pretty simple," says
More on the energy crisis
From the US' best "rural" newspaper... Power on the loose Environmental News, west California's energy crisis could very well become a Western crisis as the nationwide drive toward power deregulation continues. While a new system emerges, an energy-starved West must find a way to feed this new beast without destroying its land, water and air. http://www.hcn.org/ Ian
On California Effluent
Jim Devine wrote: Horowitz just surfaced again, as bad as before. yeah, he had an ad (sponsored, somewhat secretively, by the Edison Institute or something similar which had its initials posted in the bottom right-hand-side of the TV screen) against those favoring bankruptcy for PGE and Edison International. He's veering toward being the moral equivalent of the other David Horowitz, the ex-editor of the leftist magazine RAMPARTS who became an ultra-rightist. I apologize if any other people named "David Horowitz" exist and are offended by the fact that I mentioned their disgusting name-sakes. = This reminds me of an old story about the Glasgow Empire Theatre, reputedly "the graveyard of English comedians". Back in the 60s Mike and Bernie Winters were a MOR variety act; Mike singing, Bernie telling jokes. When they hit Glasgow Mike came on first and sang a few songs. There was deadly silence after each one. Mike began to sweat a little. Eventually in consternation he signalled to Bernie waiting in the wings to come on. As he did, a voice from the audience rang out: "Aw, f#*! There's two of them!" Anyway, it's frightening to know that there are two awful David Horowitzes. I thought you were referring to the same ex-Ramparts guy. What is the other's main claim to fame?
I get letters...
I get letters... Anyone got responses? From: "RICHARD ALLEN@" [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Question Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2001 11:49:51 -0500 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Hi Have you done a paper about the relationship of commodities prices of first world vis via the third world? The anomaly of a barrel of yuppy shampoo worth thousands of dollars versus 30 dollars for a barrel of oil, that President of Venezuala spoke of. It would debunk much of the alleged progress of the last 20 years which was supposily created by the the so call technological revolution of the Internet. I have no doubt that technology has increased the efficiency of the transaction processors and accounting guard gods in the West. However I believe that the real growth in the World economy was due to the immense exploitation of the 2 billion people formerly under the protection of the Soviet system. Even the Cuba revolution depends on the sexual exploitation of its youth by capitalist tourists in search of the Holy Grail of an Pre-AIDS paradise of uninhibited sex orgies. It is a wonder how far we are technologically from Clarke's 2001. As a programmer I startled on how far away we are from HAL. I think that ultimately, AI will finish off Capitalism, (and perhaps Humanity), long before the Left has chance! Richard Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: Keralan growth
I also agree with Jim Devine. One reason GDP does not measure real growth in many countries such as India is that the markets there are not fully capitalized, much of the economic exchange is still represented by barter and home production. The standard national accounting system does not capture non-capital and non-cash exchanges in any meaningful way. maggie coleman J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. wrote: Actually I would agree with Jim Devine that economic and social development are closely linked and best measured by the kinds of indicators gathered by the UN with its physical quality of life indexes, etc. Economic growth is what is measured by per capita GDP, and certainly having a high income allows people to purchase things that they might not be able to have otherwise, and the desire for such things can stimulate outmigration. Unfortunately, I do not have all data sources on this here in my office. But, it should be noted that in comparison with other states of India, education has been relatively egalitarian and literacy is very widespread. The doctors, engineers, etc. that one sees in the US from other states are generally from upper castes and have had elite educations that are not available to most people, with the adult literacy rate in most of India remaining very high. OTOH, relatively "unskilled" laborers from Kerala have sufficient educations to be able to do many things in other countries and to have the awareness and the ability to get out and do them. I originally brought the issue up because Keralans themselves consider their low level of economic growth to be a problem and to see the outmigration from Kerala to be a manifestation of it. Otherwise, things look pretty good in Kerala, especially in comparison with most of the rest of India, although some argue that Sri Lanka has a comparable record, spoiled by the ongoing war there. Here are some stats from several sources. Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in India, over 100 million population, in the north central area, and not the poorest either. Country/state birth rate infant mortality adult female literacy % (per 1000) (per 1000 births) India29 7139 Uttar Pradesh 36 98 25 Kerala 18 17 86 Pakistan 40 95 25 Bangladesh 31 75 27 Sri Lanka 21 14 88 China19 32 75 S. Korea 16 9 96 Some good sources for info and data on the states of India include Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, _India: Economic Development and Social Opportunity_. Oxford and Dehli: Oxford University Press, 1995. Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, eds. _Indian Development: Selected Regional Perspectives_. Oxford and Dehli: Oxford University Press, 1996. Another source on Kerala is B.A. Prakash, _Kerala's Economy: Performance, Problems and Prospects_. New Dehli: Sage, 1994. Finally, a good book on the role of gender is Bina Agarwal, _ A Field of One's Own: Gender and Land Rights in South Asia_. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. BTW, I agree with those who stress that some of the developments in Kerala reflect earlier social and historical aspects and trends. But, there were clear political decisions that were made, especially in the 1950s against much outside opposition and criticism, that brought about what we see today. Barkley Rosser
Re: blowing off steam
Mike reminded me of how floored I was when I heard about the Virginia legislature passing laws about where to sleep in the house you own... To make matters even more hypocritical, Virginia is a right to work state -- because unions interfere in the market place. So it's o.k. to stamp out living wages, but we can't have people falling asleep in front of the TV in the living room. To add to this, right now Virginia and Maryland are cooperating on rebuilding a bridge which is the main passage between the states and DC where most white Virginians work. Bushites are talking about stopping the contracting on the bridge because Virginia had to agree to union rules which Maryland upholds. So the bushites are going to try and force Maryland to accept non-union labor in the bridge construction. My question is, what happened to state's rights? Why are Virginia's states rights to be a right to work state better than Maryland's states rights to promote unionism? Well, that's a rhetorical question. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I just glanced at a journal of political economy article in condemning mandates. Mandates are bad, except you want to force schools to get standardized tests. Local control is good, except when inconveniences corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms. How do get away with such hypocrisy? And who figures out the names of their political campaigns -- paycheck protection, death taxes, and the like? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
RE: I get letters...
Um, if it's built by humans it won't be intelligent :-). Seriously, "the left" such as it is, needs to really get into ecology, engineering, satellites and computers in the next decade and, oh ,yeah, figure out how to break the neo-Kantian stranglehold on the current international law/relations paradigm. Green the banks, Ian -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Jim Devine Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 7:56 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; RICHARD ALLEN@ Subject: [PEN-L:7634] I get letters... I get letters... Anyone got responses? From: "RICHARD ALLEN@" [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Question Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2001 11:49:51 -0500 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Hi Have you done a paper about the relationship of commodities prices of first world vis via the third world? The anomaly of a barrel of yuppy shampoo worth thousands of dollars versus 30 dollars for a barrel of oil, that President of Venezuala spoke of. It would debunk much of the alleged progress of the last 20 years which was supposily created by the the so call technological revolution of the Internet. I have no doubt that technology has increased the efficiency of the transaction processors and accounting guard gods in the West. However I believe that the real growth in the World economy was due to the immense exploitation of the 2 billion people formerly under the protection of the Soviet system. Even the Cuba revolution depends on the sexual exploitation of its youth by capitalist tourists in search of the Holy Grail of an Pre-AIDS paradise of uninhibited sex orgies. It is a wonder how far we are technologically from Clarke's 2001. As a programmer I startled on how far away we are from HAL. I think that ultimately, AI will finish off Capitalism, (and perhaps Humanity), long before the Left has chance! Richard Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: new economy
I haven't read the Challenge article yet, but so far everything I have read about the "new economy" sounds like smoke and mirrors to me. It also seems like this "new economy" is about to take a bath just like plain old economies do all the time in capitalism. maggie coleman Michael Perelman wrote: Challenge Magazine has a new article in the January issue "Did the 1990s Inaugurate a New Economy?" by Harold G. Vatter and John F. Walker largely comparing the 1920s and the 1990s, a subject near and dear to the heart of Jim Devine. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: new economy
At 09:06 PM 01/31/2001 -0600, you wrote: I haven't read the Challenge article yet, but so far everything I have read about the "new economy" sounds like smoke and mirrors to me. It also seems like this "new economy" is about to take a bath just like plain old economies do all the time in capitalism. maggie coleman the economy is _always_ new (while it's always old, too). (Half of the poli. sci. books have "continuity and and change" in their titles -- and they're right to put it there.) And I understand that someone named Doug has a book out on this subject Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: Re: CA Greenspan
Well, I hope you're right too! maggie Nathan Newman wrote: - Original Message - From: "Margaret Coleman" [EMAIL PROTECTED] -The only problem with using a reasonable (?) solution to California's problems -as a way to tout democrats over republicans is that it was the democrats who can -be blamed for creating the problem in the first place. No, California's deregulation strategy was bipartisan and created under a GOP governor who would have vetoed any progressive approach. My point is that divided government makes real responsibility unclear, since all results are based on what is possible given the check and veto of the opposing party. California right now has a small amount of check in the form of initiative-based rules forcing two-thirds votes for many revenue decisions, thereby giving the GOP in the legislature some leverage, but in general the Dems now have a pretty free hand and therefore responsibility for what happens. This is a rather remarkable reality that has not really existed in any large state for quite a number of years, since all the large states have had some branch of government controlled by the GOP. Now, we have California controlled fully by the Dems and we can see the results. In the past two years, the Dems have actually passed some remarkably progressive legislation: free university tuition for almost all students, banning almost all strike injunctions, expanded health care rights, agency fees for all public employees in unionized sectors, the recognition of graduate student employees, restored benefits for immigrants and a number of even more progressive bills passed but vetoed by Davis. But utility reform is the first real crisis with real capital conflict dimensions, so the results will be instructive. I've never claimed that the Dems are socialist or an unconflicted good, but I hope the results are strong enough to justify my lesser-evilism faith. We shall see. == Nathan Newman
Re: Re: Buck Fush
Yoshie Furuhashi wrote: Maggie says: I think what we need to do is support pro-CHOICE, which is not the same as pro-abortion, though abortion is a very important part of choice. Well, the question is, though, if the "international family planning organizations" have had a measurable impact of expanding women's choices in poor nations. I don't think Kerala has a lower birth rate than the rest of India because the former has more "international family planning organizations" than the latter. Charity never solves any problem, even if it's truly charitable (and it often isn't). I agree that charity is rarely an answer to much of anything, but what does that have to do with choice? I don't see international family planning agencies as the sole representation of choice, I am only saying they should be one of many. Also, I have a feeling that the birthrate in India has far more to do with cultural values than any international agency -- and -- the use of some items we associate with choice here in the USA are used to gender births along acceptable lines in India -- i.e., sonograms are used to determine the sex of the child and abort girl fetuses. But in my mind, that ain't choice. Finally, I am not sure what you are disagreeing with in what I am saying -- the issue should be choice, not one aspect of choice such as abortion, or birth control, etc. maggie coleman
Re: recent economic trends
Michael Perelman wrote, The actual conspiracy that I was accused suggesting was that Adam Smith wrote in such a way as to intentionally mislead his readers. In that case, the conspiracy consisted of Adams Smith alone. So he must have engaged in a "spiracy," since there were no cons involved in the plot. Unless, that is, he plagiarized his work, in which case the ghost of some dead Frenchman could be held as a con-spiriting henchman. Tom Walker Sandwichman and Deconsultant Bowen Island, BC
World Bank update.....ouch
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,431328,00.html Leak reveals crisis at World Bank Larry Elliott, economics Editor Wednesday January 31, 2001 The World Bank is an institution in crisis with staff living "in fear" of the organisation's autocratic boss, James Wolfensohn, according to a secret memo seen by the Guardian. At a time when the bank is coming under unprecedented criticism from leftwing protesters opposed to globalisation and rightwing Congressmen in the US demanding budget cuts, the document provides a savage indictment of the world's largest development institution. Mr Wolfensohn went to the bank in 1995, determined to reverse its reputation for arrogance and for dictating economic reforms to governments in developing countries as a condition for loans. But the memo accuses the former Wall Street banker of being "isolated from reality", intolerant of dissent, and quick to humiliate senior managers in front of outsiders. "The atmosphere of fear that pervades the bank is based on numerous day-to-day experiences of staff and managers in their interaction with Mr Wolfensohn," it says. "He does not practice the values and behaviours he espouses for the rest of us." The bank, set up 55 years ago to help the post war reconstruction of Europe, is the biggest provider of cheap loans to developing countries. The money, used for infrastructure, health and education projects, is provided by the governments of industrialised countries, including 170m a year from Britain. Mr Wolfensohn has made a point of opening the institution up to its critics in the development community. But the memo says Mr Wolfensohn does not welcome criticism from within the bank and that staff have learned not to disagree with him. The bank is also facing a budget crisis which is putting staff jobs at risk, according to the memo. In 1997 Mr Wolfensohn promised western governments he would overhaul its management systems in return for three years of extra funding. The budget is to be reduced to 1997 levels this year, but the memo says the new management systems are not working and that staff cuts will have to made to pay for new projects personally sponsored by Mr Wolfensohn. A bank spokeswoman said the memo was one of many received by Mr Wolfensohn on morale and was not typical of staff views. "He's a reformer, and they win friends but also make enemies."
The Internet Anti-Fascist: Tuesday, 30 Jan 2001 -- 5:6 (#508)
/=-=-=-=-Click Here Support Our Sponsor-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=\ X SAVE 50%-70% OFF INK JET CARTRIDGES LASER TONER!! X FREE SHIPPING, All Major Brands, Cartridges Starting at $4.95 Satisfaction Guaranteed or your Money Back without question! http://click.topica.com/aaabjFbz8SnrbAjwjxa/Printing __ The Internet Anti-Fascist: Tuesday, 30 January 2001 Vol. 5, Number 6 (#508) __ News On the International Brigades from the Spanish Civil War Asociacin de Amigos de las Brigadas Internacionales, "Madrid: International Brigade Exhibit," 25 Jan to 25 Feb 01 Peter Carroll, "ALBA Collection Moving to NYUs Tamiment Library," 22 Jan 01 Net Politics In the News: UPI (via PolicyTech), "Foreign 'Net sites can be closed," 10 Jan 01 Michael S. Overing (Online Journalism Review), "End of Anonymity Without Liability?," 11 Jan 01 Web Sites of Interest: Real Political Correctness: AA News, "Bush Huddles With Catholic Leader, Plans Strategy to Push 'Faith-Based' Partnership Plan in Congress: Fleischer Says Church Involvement 'Next Step In Welfare Reform'," 25 Jan 01 What's Worth Checking: 10 stories -- NEWS ON THE INTERNATIONAL BRIGADES FROM THE SPANISH CIVIL WAR Madrid: International Brigade Exhibit Asociacin de Amigos de las Brigadas Internacionales In Alcal de Henares (Madrid), from January 25 to February 25, 2001, within the framework of a week "dedicated to Azaa" which the city is holding, there will be an exhibition called "Volunteers for Liberty, the International Brigades", and is the work of AABI "The Association of the International Brigades" based in Madrid. The history of the International Brigades is illustrated through the use of display pannels with text and photographs. Aspects such as: The international situation before the war in Spain, the military uprising, the arrival of the first contingents, background of the volunteers, brigade organization, participation in key battles. Non military aspects are also covered such as, sanitary services and culture, the International Brigades after the war, their importance and their reflection in the arts. In addition, the exhibits includes period artifacts, weapons and uniforms. An exhibit catalogue will be on sale to the public. Furthermore, on February 8, there will be also a round table discussion on "The International Brigades yesterday and today" in Alcal de Henares in the same celebration dedicated to Azaa. The participans are : Hans Landauer (Brigadista and chairman of the Association of Austrian Brigadistas), Guido Nonveiller ( Yugoslav brigadista), George Pichler (Professor at the University of Alcal de Henares), Luis Suarez (Liutenant Mayor of Alcal de Henares from the United Left) and Gustavo Zaragoza (University student and AABI member) - - - - - ALBA Collection Moving to NYU's Tamiment Library Peter Carroll 22 Jan 01 In the most important decision in its 22-year history, ALBAs Board of Governors voted in September to transfer its entire Spanish Civil War archive holdings to New York Universitys Tamiment Library near Washington Square. The move assures that the ever-growing archive will be processed by professional librarians and made available to more researchers and readers than ever before. In addition, the relocation will permit closer cooperation between ALBA and NYUs King Juan Carlos I Center, which promotes public programs relating to Spain and the United States. NYUs purchase of the collection also ensures the creation of a permanent endowment fund to sustain ALBAs diverse activities long into the future. The ALBA collection, which will maintain its distinct name within the librarys holdings, consists of over 300 linear feet of original research material, such as letters, diaries, journals, and official records as well as the office materials of the Veterans of the Abraham Lincoln Brigade. Besides such paper documents, the collection encompasses about 5,000 photographs, over 100 Spanish Civil War posters, and miscellaneous historical objects and memorabilia. ALBAs unique microfilm holdings of the Moscow Archives will accompany the archives to its new location. The move also includes duplicate copies of books and pamphlets, which will join the extensive holdings of the NYU libraries. The decision to transfer the archive from Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts reflected the extensive growth of the collection in recent years, which required considerable processing, indexing, and storage. Facing space and budgetary constraints, Brandeis librarians recommended in 1998 that ALBA seek a larger depository. That proposal launched more than two years of negotiations
RE: Re: RE: Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01
The ECI has been rather benign through the '90's, no? And haven't they been moving rates to prevent capital outflows, even as they worry about the trade deficit? Given the FOMC meets every six weeks haven't they been far more worried about bank balance sheets in the face of high corporate debt/consumer debt even as profits have been better in the 90's than the 80's? Isn't household debt at an all time high precisely because the ECI is benign hence credit/debt inflation to keep aggregate demand afloat? Ian -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Jim Devine Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 2:42 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7617] Re: RE: Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01 At 02:23 PM 1/31/01 -0800, you wrote: I understand that. I was refering to the way the Fed manipulates the meaning[s] of the term. Surely they weren't moving interest rates like crazy because of the CPI? What's AG call it, "constructive ambiguity" or some such? no, they move it because of fears of wage inflation, which are seen as encouraging consumer price inflation and/or profits, though the latter aren't mentioned. (It wouldn't be polite.) BTW, nowadays the Fed is ignoring the CPI. It pays attention to the price index for personal consumption expenditures. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: recent economic trends
Jim Devine wrote saith Rev. Tom: Sounds interesting. Could you expand a bit? sure, I'm a sucker for such things. No -- on second thought, I can't, since I've got too much work. Look at my article in Baiman, Boushey, and Saunders, eds., POLITICAL ECONOMY AND CONTEMPORARY CAPITALISM: RADICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ECONOMIC THEORY AND POLICY (M.E. Sharpe, 2000). The CHALLENGE article (to come) is a revised version of that article, with more up-to-date data. Thanks, Jim, that's all I need. Tom Walker Sandwichman and Deconsultant Bowen Island, BC
Re: recent economic trends
I may well be a conspiracy theorist, but the rest of my conspiratorial group will not let me go public with it. The actual conspiracy that I was accused suggesting was that Adam Smith wrote in such a way as to intentionally mislead his readers. In that case, the conspiracy consisted of Adams Smith alone. So he must have engaged in a "spiracy," since there were no cons involved in the plot. On Tue, Jan 30, 2001 at 09:34:58PM -0800, Jim Devine wrote: except that the author suggested you were a conspiracy theorist. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: top ten reasons greenspan will navigate a hard landing
At 14:29 31/01/01 -0600, you wrote: http://home.earthlink.net/~caro/topten.html Fundamentally does he not have to hope that juggling interest rates will somehow conjure up more available surplus value within the US economy for capital to go on happily accumulating. OItherwise it will have to go through one of its ritual decimations, before the cycle can restart. There is a fundamental contradiction he cannot buck this time, because the international capital flows have temporarily become less favourable to the US. Chris Burford
Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
I am not sure about this, but keynes and hayek in some correspondence seemed to be in agreement on the causes of the cycle but not on the remedy. It is true that Hayek's use is wrong not only for this but also for methodological reasons. I probably meant that intervention of the usual kind is not likely to pull things back together; evidently, my use of Hayek was merely illustrative and for that matter a poor choice I admit. There is definitely contagion in this if the US goes first and more so for East Asia than others. What I should have said is that there is less autonomy in so far as the use of macro policy is concerned for national entities and this may include the US. So policies of containing crisis via the conventional money tools may not deliver because some can whether the storm better than others, e.g. Europe and Japan. So it is true that there are imbalances, and there always was and will be for at least some time, but the state may have been more effective then. Now, without a concerted effort, crisis management is difficult. The extent of the crisis will represent a test of the cohesion of OECD joint economic policy. There comes a time when economist whom keynes likened to dentist may perform root canals or extractions. Theoretically one must address a new role for the national state in the global age. Mediating global crisis requires very institutions with global reach, and reordering of the posture of the North vis-à-vis the South. The developing world has woken up to this reality already. The case of Malaysia short-term capital controls only worked because Malaysia mustered enough resources to oppose speculators. That was an exception and I do not think that it will be possible again. The other day I heard the Brazilian economist Couthinio explain to the world how it was impossible for the state of Brazil to attempt any controls since without external borrowing given the extent of openness the whole country would collapse; he also added that 72 million Brazilian (half the population) lived under one dollar a day. This may be typical of the developing world. Globalization for the developed world meant an export of crisis, but also an import of crisis as the Mexican bailout hinted at that. So is the developed world willing to bail out the US at any cost. Of course this is merely speculative and related to sharp drop in US output performance. I gathered from your reply that the bears can get bigger only for a while making things worst, so I presume the fall could be hard and certainly a surplus is not here to last not even if Bush relegates welfare functions to the Churches. Here one must introduce political economy, i.e. War, and a New World order in which immediate re-division and even the old dream of re-colonizing the newly independent states may not be ruled out although highly unlikely since many of these have already surrendered national sovereignty . --- Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ali wrote: Does the oncoming recession represent a typically keynsian business cycle or is there a Hayek story where given the extent of misallocated investments in the new technology (bunching up shumpeterian innovation), bankruptcies on mass are the way to deal with the problem and intervention may add fuel to the fire. It's wrong to give Hayek credit here. As Haberler suggests in his book on business cycle theories, theories of recessions that arise from imbalances that arise during the boom precede Hayek. In fact, Marx's at least one of cycle theories can be interpreted in this way. (As Schumpeter admitted, a lot of "Austrian" ideas are developments on Marx's ideas.) Also, Keynesians such as Minsky have a purging of imbalances view of recessions. I agree that recessions have a purging effect, ridding the economy of imbalances and thus allowing a new recovery. The main imbalances I see in the US economy are consumer debt, corporate debt, and external debt. (These are what I've called Momma Bear, Baby Bear, and Poppa Bear, respectively, for the "Goldilocks economy.") If the Fed succeeds in preventing recession, these "Bears" will likely grow bigger, necessitating a worse recession down the line (unless Jubilee happens). However, it's possible that the economy could "cross the line" into a purer Keynesian territory. (More and more, I see references to such "tipping points" in economics.) When capitalists start competing to cut wages (relative to labor productivity) in order to survive recession and thus depress consumer demand, making the recession worse, they've entered what I've called the underconsumption trap. When prices start falling, a debt-deflation situation threatens to create a replay of Irving Fisher's depression. Also, such a situation encourages social disorder, which might encourage working class radicalization but also might encourage an increase in the popularity of fascist-type ideas
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Korean news
2) Did not George Kennan in his original anonymous article on containment raise the possibility of an eventual evolution of the Soviet system as a response? IIRC, yes. And that was one reason that the policy was originally supposed to be one of "containment" and not of "confrontation." You say, further, that Soviets were ideologically optimistic and triumphalist through at least the Khrushchev era, maybe through the 1960s. Ian would extend that through 1986. I think this is not true. K did believe that "we will bury you," but he was quite clear that he was a great fan of peaceful coexistence, and the triumph of communism would come through proof of its economic superiority--not military force. I had always thought that that phrase was a mistranslation. "We will bury you" implies that we will do something to cause your demise, and then gleefully fill in the grave above your coffin. IIRC, the Russian is much more "we will outlive you." Brad DeLong
Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
That was my reading of Smith. Jim Devine wrote: Michael Perelman wrote: The actual conspiracy that I was accused suggesting was that Adam Smith wrote in such a way as to intentionally mislead his readers. In that case, the conspiracy consisted of Adams Smith alone. So he must have engaged in a "spiracy," since there were no cons involved in the plot. any pros? anyway, isn't it possible that Smith simply misled himself (via ideology) and thus misled others? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
At 06:10 AM 2/1/01 -0800, you wrote: Here one must introduce political economy, i.e. War, and a New World order in which immediate re-division and even the old dream of re-colonizing the newly independent states may not be ruled out although highly unlikely since many of these have already surrendered national sovereignty . Frankly, I don't think the rich countries want to recolonize the newly independent states, since that would entail increased responsibility. It's easier to just let them stew in stagnation (as with Africa) or destroy them (Iraq) or destroy their economic independence (S. Korea). It's easier to rule them indirectly via the IMF World Bank. I thus doubt that Lenin-style wars of re-division will happen. More likely are wars against nationalists who try to "opt out." Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
RE: I get letters...
anyone interested in the declining terms of trade thesis should begin with Prebisch-Singer, in both its original form (focusing on primary vs. manufactured products) and its revised form (focusing on structural differences in economies). In the statistical debate later on, Prebisch-Singer was challenged by J. Spraos, but D. Sapsford effectively responded, demonstrating that the thesis still had empirical support. Full refs. available on request. -Original Message- From: Jim Devine [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 9:56 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; RICHARD ALLEN@ Subject: [PEN-L:7634] I get letters... I get letters... Anyone got responses? From: "RICHARD ALLEN@" [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Question Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2001 11:49:51 -0500 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Hi Have you done a paper about the relationship of commodities prices of first world vis via the third world? The anomaly of a barrel of yuppy shampoo worth thousands of dollars versus 30 dollars for a barrel of oil, that President of Venezuala spoke of. It would debunk much of the alleged progress of the last 20 years which was supposily created by the the so call technological revolution of the Internet. I have no doubt that technology has increased the efficiency of the transaction processors and accounting guard gods in the West. However I believe that the real growth in the World economy was due to the immense exploitation of the 2 billion people formerly under the protection of the Soviet system. Even the Cuba revolution depends on the sexual exploitation of its youth by capitalist tourists in search of the Holy Grail of an Pre-AIDS paradise of uninhibited sex orgies. It is a wonder how far we are technologically from Clarke's 2001. As a programmer I startled on how far away we are from HAL. I think that ultimately, AI will finish off Capitalism, (and perhaps Humanity), long before the Left has chance! Richard Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
Re: On California Effluent
At 10:01 AM 2/1/01 +0200, you wrote: Anyway, it's frightening to know that there are two awful David Horowitzes. I thought you were referring to the same ex-Ramparts guy. What is the other's main claim to fame? the other is a self-styled "consumer advocate," who might have been a useful TV personality at one point but has sold out to the electricity companies. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: recent economic trends
Michael Perelman wrote: The actual conspiracy that I was accused suggesting was that Adam Smith wrote in such a way as to intentionally mislead his readers. In that case, the conspiracy consisted of Adams Smith alone. So he must have engaged in a "spiracy," since there were no cons involved in the plot. any pros? anyway, isn't it possible that Smith simply misled himself (via ideology) and thus misled others? Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
RE: Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01
As Vickrey pointed out, it is unexpected changes in the rate of inflation and not inflation in and of itself that is of potential concern (in general, not under current conditions in our economy). As the Nobel-winner also emphasized, unemployment has greater cost social and economic costs than even unexpected changes in the rate of inflation, and the 'cure' for inflation hurts more than inflation itself. -Original Message- From: Jim Devine [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 4:10 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7613] Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01 At 02:03 PM 1/31/01 -0800, you wrote: What are asset price bubbles if not inflation? "inflation," when unqualified, almost always refers to consumer price inflation. It's okay to add qualifications and thus to talk about asset inflation, inflation of rhetoric, grade inflation, cost-of-living inflation, etc., though. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: IMF, WORLD BANK CRY UNCLE ON MOZAMBICAN C
Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 09:53:26 -0800 From: Brad DeLong [EMAIL PROTECTED] I always thought that successful industrial policies were built on *subsidizing* exports. I've yet to understand why the hell *taxing* Mozambique's exports is going to make anyone (except the owners of cashew processing plants) better off... That's 'cause you still owe us a visit down thisaway, comrade. It would shake you up, I predict. (If it's too far off the beaten track, then check Joe Hanlon's long article on the topic last year in the Review of African Political Economy.) Patrick Bond ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) home: 51 Somerset Road, Kensington 2094 South Africa phone: (2711) 614-8088 work: University of the Witwatersrand Graduate School of Public and Development Management PO Box 601, Wits 2050, South Africa work email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] work phone: (2711) 717-3917 work fax: (2711) 484-2729 cellphone: (27) 83-633-5548 * Municipal Services Project website -- http://www.queensu.ca/msp * to order new book: Cities of Gold, Townships of Coal -- http://store.yahoo.com/africanworld/865436126.html
GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01
On one level, isn't the creditor class's ( and its executive committee , the Fed) constant concern about inflation , and method of fighting it by raising interest rates as simple as: 1) When interest rates go up, creditors get more profits just straight up ( so the claim that the interest rates are raised to fight inflation is a fig leaf for just directly increasing their profits), and 2) Inflation helps debtors and hurts creditors. CB [EMAIL PROTECTED] 02/01/01 11:22AM As Vickrey pointed out, it is unexpected changes in the rate of inflation and not inflation in and of itself that is of potential concern (in general, not under current conditions in our economy). As the Nobel-winner also emphasized, unemployment has greater cost social and economic costs than even unexpected changes in the rate of inflation, and the 'cure' for inflation hurts more than inflation itself. -Original Message- From: Jim Devine [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 4:10 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7613] Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01 At 02:03 PM 1/31/01 -0800, you wrote: What are asset price bubbles if not inflation? "inflation," when unqualified, almost always refers to consumer price inflation. It's okay to add qualifications and thus to talk about asset inflation, inflation of rhetoric, grade inflation, cost-of-living inflation, etc., though. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
Jim,
I also fully agree that later Marxists certainly did
have bunching theories of cycles tied to investments
in specific technologies. I would note that the inspiration
for Mandel's arguments came from Trotsky and Parvus.
Barkley Rosser
-Original Message-
From: Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 5:17 PM
Subject: [PEN-L:7614] Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
At 01:29 PM 1/31/01 -0500, you wrote:
Marx had a bunching theory tied to replacement
wave cycles a la the sort of thing now advocated
by Kydland and Prescott ("real business cycles").
The latter even attribute their beginnings to "technology
shocks."
But Marx emphasized the demand side (i.e., accumulation), whereas "real
business cycles" are on the supply side.
But, did Marx tie the original bunching to a
wave of investment in a particular technology? Where
did he do so if he did? Schumpeter certainly did,
although I would agree he was not the first.
I don't think Marx linked the bunching of investment to investment in a
particular technology, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise. Marxists
such as Mandel or Baran Sweezy have done so...
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
Jim,
Not clear to me that "accumulation" is clearly tied
to either the supply side or the demand side. I fully
agree that Marx made much of the demand side
("failure to realize surplus value" etc.) in his discussions
of macro fluctuations. He also did have a replacement
wave theory of endogenous cycles, although I forget
exactly where he presented that right now.
But, as you well know, "accumulation" according
to Marx can take a variety of forms. In the case of
"primitive accumulation" this is often simply in the
form of highway robbery, somebody seizing something
that belongs to somebody else. Is the supply or demand?
It also includes the case where a capitalists pays
for the building of produced means of production, aka
"real capital stock." He may be induced to do so by
demand factors, but the act of doing so also changes
aggregate supply. Not such a simple matter.
BTW, the question regarding bunching was addressed
to our list host who is an expert in both Marx's thought and
in the history of economics more generally. So, I await
a response from him on a citation from Marx on this matter,
unless someone comes up with one first.
Barkley Rosser
-Original Message-
From: Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 5:17 PM
Subject: [PEN-L:7614] Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
At 01:29 PM 1/31/01 -0500, you wrote:
Marx had a bunching theory tied to replacement
wave cycles a la the sort of thing now advocated
by Kydland and Prescott ("real business cycles").
The latter even attribute their beginnings to "technology
shocks."
But Marx emphasized the demand side (i.e., accumulation), whereas "real
business cycles" are on the supply side.
But, did Marx tie the original bunching to a
wave of investment in a particular technology? Where
did he do so if he did? Schumpeter certainly did,
although I would agree he was not the first.
I don't think Marx linked the bunching of investment to investment in a
particular technology, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise. Marxists
such as Mandel or Baran Sweezy have done so...
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Soviet Union foreign policy
[EMAIL PROTECTED] After the mid 20's, you can get a lot further in predicting Soviet foreign policy using a straight line national interest calculation than an ideological one. (( CB: How was almost going to nuclear war with the U.S. over Cuba in the Soviet narrow national interest ? How was one way economic support to Cuba and other countries in Soviet national interest ? The SU had internationalist foreign policy Sure, the USSR supported some national liberation movements--that is one of the few half-way decent things it did. But it never did that when it didn't seem that this would not further great power goals. ((( CB: The SU didn't act like a capitalist great power. It didn't have colonies , i.e. economically exploitative relations with the other socialist and socialist path nations
Re: Re: blowing off steam
Actually the Virginia legislature, now fully dominated by the Repugs who are seriously beholden to the Christian Right are going off the deep end. The latest? They have just passed a 24-hour waiting period on abortions and also a law requiring students in high schools to stand and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. They can only get out with a note from a clergyperson testifying to their religious or philosophical objections. The governor, recently appointed as National Chair of the Repugs, will sign both of these eagerly. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Margaret Coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7629] Re: blowing off steam Mike reminded me of how floored I was when I heard about the Virginia legislature passing laws about where to sleep in the house you own... To make matters even more hypocritical, Virginia is a right to work state -- because unions interfere in the market place. So it's o.k. to stamp out living wages, but we can't have people falling asleep in front of the TV in the living room. To add to this, right now Virginia and Maryland are cooperating on rebuilding a bridge which is the main passage between the states and DC where most white Virginians work. Bushites are talking about stopping the contracting on the bridge because Virginia had to agree to union rules which Maryland upholds. So the bushites are going to try and force Maryland to accept non-union labor in the bridge construction. My question is, what happened to state's rights? Why are Virginia's states rights to be a right to work state better than Maryland's states rights to promote unionism? Well, that's a rhetorical question. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I just glanced at a journal of political economy article in condemning mandates. Mandates are bad, except you want to force schools to get standardized tests. Local control is good, except when inconveniences corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms. How do get away with such hypocrisy? And who figures out the names of their political campaigns -- paycheck protection, death taxes, and the like? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Give to God what is Caesar's?
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 01/30/01 11:22PM Nice discussion. To your question , What government bureaucrat would decide? (as to what is "faith based" and what not) The answer is the tax court and then the regular federal Court of Appeals, as I recall. ( Judges are bureaucrats too). It seems obvious that giving religious charities some advantage over non-religious charities ( as you describe , Bush proposes the religious contribution wouldn't have to itemize to take it) should trigger the Establishment Clause, but the Supreme Court has pretty much demonstrated that it is willing to make up the law as it goes along. What if "National Public Radio" changed their name to "National Public Radio and Religion" and added an hour of religious programming a week? Would they then qualify for the deduction? The possibilities are endless. ((( CB: And sickening
RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam
After some protest, the sleeping law was withdrawn. However, such regulations are not uncommon in many jurisdictions. They are aimed at keeping poor immigrant families, e.g., 10 people living in one house with 3 bedrooms, out of the "good" neighborhoods. When I first came to the DC area I lived in Virginia for one year, in a rental townhouse neighborhood where the majority of the residents were junior Pentagon officers (and their ROTTEN, violence-prone kids). I quickly decided to move to the Maryland side of the area. -Original Message- From: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 1:00 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7659] Re: Re: blowing off steam Actually the Virginia legislature, now fully dominated by the Repugs who are seriously beholden to the Christian Right are going off the deep end. The latest? They have just passed a 24-hour waiting period on abortions and also a law requiring students in high schools to stand and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. They can only get out with a note from a clergyperson testifying to their religious or philosophical objections. The governor, recently appointed as National Chair of the Repugs, will sign both of these eagerly. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Margaret Coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7629] Re: blowing off steam Mike reminded me of how floored I was when I heard about the Virginia legislature passing laws about where to sleep in the house you own... To make matters even more hypocritical, Virginia is a right to work state -- because unions interfere in the market place. So it's o.k. to stamp out living wages, but we can't have people falling asleep in front of the TV in the living room. To add to this, right now Virginia and Maryland are cooperating on rebuilding a bridge which is the main passage between the states and DC where most white Virginians work. Bushites are talking about stopping the contracting on the bridge because Virginia had to agree to union rules which Maryland upholds. So the bushites are going to try and force Maryland to accept non-union labor in the bridge construction. My question is, what happened to state's rights? Why are Virginia's states rights to be a right to work state better than Maryland's states rights to promote unionism? Well, that's a rhetorical question. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I just glanced at a journal of political economy article in condemning mandates. Mandates are bad, except you want to force schools to get standardized tests. Local control is good, except when inconveniences corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms. How do get away with such hypocrisy? And who figures out the names of their political campaigns -- paycheck protection, death taxes, and the like? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Korean news
A great irony of that "we will bury you" line is that indeed the substance and specifics behind it involved forecasts that the USSR would surpass the US in the production of such things as steel, cement, wheat, and oil, obvious signs of the glories of command central planning. The funny thing is that the USSR did indeed surpass the US in all of those, but Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Brad DeLong [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thursday, February 01, 2001 10:59 AM Subject: [PEN-L:7647] Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Korean news 2) Did not George Kennan in his original anonymous article on containment raise the possibility of an eventual evolution of the Soviet system as a response? IIRC, yes. And that was one reason that the policy was originally supposed to be one of "containment" and not of "confrontation." You say, further, that Soviets were ideologically optimistic and triumphalist through at least the Khrushchev era, maybe through the 1960s. Ian would extend that through 1986. I think this is not true. K did believe that "we will bury you," but he was quite clear that he was a great fan of peaceful coexistence, and the triumph of communism would come through proof of its economic superiority--not military force. I had always thought that that phrase was a mistranslation. "We will bury you" implies that we will do something to cause your demise, and then gleefully fill in the grave above your coffin. IIRC, the Russian is much more "we will outlive you." Brad DeLong
accumulation
[was: Re: [PEN-L:7657] Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends]
Barkley wrote:
Not clear to me that "accumulation" is clearly tied to either the
supply side or the demand side. I fully agree that Marx made much of the
demand side ("failure to realize surplus value" etc.) in his discussions
of macro fluctuations. He also did have a replacement wave theory of
endogenous cycles, although I forget exactly where he presented that right now.
the replacement cycle appears in volume II of CAPITAL, I believe in chapter
9. His emphasis in that volume is on changes in the turnover time of
commodities and of fixed capital. In CAPITAL, this is where he gets closest
to the details of modern Keynesian discussions of aggregate demand. A
stretching out of the turnover time of circulating capital (which reduces
the realized rate of profit) is similar to the modern unplanned piling up
of inventories. A stretching out of the turnover time of fixed capital
(which also reduces the realized rate of profit) is similar in some ways to
the modern fall in capacity utilization rates.
But, as you well know, "accumulation" according to Marx can take a
variety of forms. In the case of "primitive accumulation" this is often
simply in the form of highway robbery, somebody seizing something that
belongs to somebody else. Is the supply or demand?
you're right. But once capitalism is established, it doesn't just involve
the expanded reproduction of class relations. It also represents the
accumulation of fixed and circulating capital within existing capitalism,
as you say below.
It also includes the case where a capitalists pays for the building
of produced means of production, aka "real capital stock." He may be
induced to do so by demand factors, but the act of doing so also changes
aggregate supply. Not such a simple matter.
right, but Marx doesn't posit a simple relationship between a expanded
stock of fixed capital and aggregate supply. He clearly avoided positing an
aggregate production function (and he was right to do so). I _guess_ that
his vision is similar to Nicholas Kaldor's idea of a "technical progress
function" (which later showed up, seemingly without attribution, in an
article by Brad deLong Lawrence Summers). That is, increases in the rate
of capital accumulation (perhaps measured by net I/K) lead to increases in
the growth rate of labor productivity (though these increases may not be
realized). Crucially, changes in I/K would affect labor productivity growth
only with a lag.
BTW, deLong Summers emphasize the role of investment in producers'
durable equipment, which is only one part of aggregate nonresidential fixed
investment. Is it possible that the recent surge in this kind of investment
in PDE (seen in the Vatter/Walker article in the current issue of
CHALLENGE) is part of the story of the surge in labor productivity growth
that may have happened during the last 4 years or so? Of course, as Michael
Perelman points out, it's possible that this connection is undermined by
increased depreciation rates of PDE. It's also quite possible that the lag
would prevent this kind of explanation from working.
(References:
De Long, J. Bradford and Lawrence H. Summers. 1991. Equipment Investment
and Economic Growth. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS. 104(3) August. 445-502.
_. 1992. Equipment Spending and Economic Growth: How Strong is the
Nexus? BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. 157-99.)
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam
At 01:20 PM 2/1/01 -0500, you wrote: After some protest, the sleeping law was withdrawn. However, such regulations are not uncommon in many jurisdictions. They are aimed at keeping poor immigrant families, e.g., 10 people living in one house with 3 bedrooms, out of the "good" neighborhoods. When I first came to the DC area I lived in Virginia for one year, in a rental townhouse neighborhood where the majority of the residents were junior Pentagon officers (and their ROTTEN, violence-prone kids). I quickly decided to move to the Maryland side of the area. maybe they could pass a law against military types living there? Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
RE: GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01
Good points, Charles. What also needs to be recognized is that the Clinton-era expansion was fueled by unprecedented private sector borrowing, which is spending in excess of its income by an amount equal to about 6.5% of GDP. All the recent economic data, however, indicate that borrowing by households and firms is declining, as they try to bring spending more into line with incomes. Why can't we simply rely on the Fed to lower interest rates and thus boost borrowing and spending? Because the private sector is already burdened with debt accumulated as a result of unprecedented (private sector) deficit spending. Monetary easing could work only if households would actually increase their borrowing and cause the nation's saving rate (already negative) to continue to decline. -Original Message- From: Charles Brown [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 11:37 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7655] GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01 On one level, isn't the creditor class's ( and its executive committee , the Fed) constant concern about inflation , and method of fighting it by raising interest rates as simple as: 1) When interest rates go up, creditors get more profits just straight up ( so the claim that the interest rates are raised to fight inflation is a fig leaf for just directly increasing their profits), and 2) Inflation helps debtors and hurts creditors. CB [EMAIL PROTECTED] 02/01/01 11:22AM As Vickrey pointed out, it is unexpected changes in the rate of inflation and not inflation in and of itself that is of potential concern (in general, not under current conditions in our economy). As the Nobel-winner also emphasized, unemployment has greater cost social and economic costs than even unexpected changes in the rate of inflation, and the 'cure' for inflation hurts more than inflation itself. -Original Message- From: Jim Devine [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 4:10 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7613] Re: Re:GDP Byte by Dean Baker, 1/31/01 At 02:03 PM 1/31/01 -0800, you wrote: What are asset price bubbles if not inflation? "inflation," when unqualified, almost always refers to consumer price inflation. It's okay to add qualifications and thus to talk about asset inflation, inflation of rhetoric, grade inflation, cost-of-living inflation, etc., though. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam
so if you refuse to say the pledge (as I did when I was in 4th grade) are you breaking the law and liable to be arrested? -Original Message- From: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 12:00 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7659] Re: Re: blowing off steam Actually the Virginia legislature, now fully dominated by the Repugs who are seriously beholden to the Christian Right are going off the deep end. The latest? They have just passed a 24-hour waiting period on abortions and also a law requiring students in high schools to stand and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. They can only get out with a note from a clergyperson testifying to their religious or philosophical objections. The governor, recently appointed as National Chair of the Repugs, will sign both of these eagerly. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Margaret Coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7629] Re: blowing off steam Mike reminded me of how floored I was when I heard about the Virginia legislature passing laws about where to sleep in the house you own... To make matters even more hypocritical, Virginia is a right to work state -- because unions interfere in the market place. So it's o.k. to stamp out living wages, but we can't have people falling asleep in front of the TV in the living room. To add to this, right now Virginia and Maryland are cooperating on rebuilding a bridge which is the main passage between the states and DC where most white Virginians work. Bushites are talking about stopping the contracting on the bridge because Virginia had to agree to union rules which Maryland upholds. So the bushites are going to try and force Maryland to accept non-union labor in the bridge construction. My question is, what happened to state's rights? Why are Virginia's states rights to be a right to work state better than Maryland's states rights to promote unionism? Well, that's a rhetorical question. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I just glanced at a journal of political economy article in condemning mandates. Mandates are bad, except you want to force schools to get standardized tests. Local control is good, except when inconveniences corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms. How do get away with such hypocrisy? And who figures out the names of their political campaigns -- paycheck protection, death taxes, and the like? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
RE: Re: RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam
Having to live with them was hell, but from a broader perspective they were also the victims of the Pentagon cultureNo, I didn't spit on them (or the many anti-war G.I.'s I worked with from 1965 - 1975 in San Diego and San Francisco). -Original Message- From: Jim Devine [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 1:29 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7664] Re: RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam At 01:20 PM 2/1/01 -0500, you wrote: After some protest, the sleeping law was withdrawn. However, such regulations are not uncommon in many jurisdictions. They are aimed at keeping poor immigrant families, e.g., 10 people living in one house with 3 bedrooms, out of the "good" neighborhoods. When I first came to the DC area I lived in Virginia for one year, in a rental townhouse neighborhood where the majority of the residents were junior Pentagon officers (and their ROTTEN, violence-prone kids). I quickly decided to move to the Maryland side of the area. maybe they could pass a law against military types living there? Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
RE: California energy crisis
The California Assembly failed to pass the utility bailout last night because of lack of Republican support for rate increases. Does this mean California lefties will be voting Republican in the next election? http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/national/ap865.htm David Shemano
Re: RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam
Mat, Liable to be suspended from school. The original bill was even stricter, but was cut back in face of its obvious unconstitutionality in the face of the 1943 Supreme Court ruling on this matter. A lot of people think the bill that has just passed is also unconstitutional. BTW, this is a followup on last year's law mandating a required morning "moment of silence" in public schools. There have been a lot of protests with students sitting in the halls and getting into various sorts of trouble. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Forstater, Mathew [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thursday, February 01, 2001 1:38 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7666] RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam so if you refuse to say the pledge (as I did when I was in 4th grade) are you breaking the law and liable to be arrested? -Original Message- From: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 12:00 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7659] Re: Re: blowing off steam Actually the Virginia legislature, now fully dominated by the Repugs who are seriously beholden to the Christian Right are going off the deep end. The latest? They have just passed a 24-hour waiting period on abortions and also a law requiring students in high schools to stand and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. They can only get out with a note from a clergyperson testifying to their religious or philosophical objections. The governor, recently appointed as National Chair of the Repugs, will sign both of these eagerly. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Margaret Coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7629] Re: blowing off steam Mike reminded me of how floored I was when I heard about the Virginia legislature passing laws about where to sleep in the house you own... To make matters even more hypocritical, Virginia is a right to work state -- because unions interfere in the market place. So it's o.k. to stamp out living wages, but we can't have people falling asleep in front of the TV in the living room. To add to this, right now Virginia and Maryland are cooperating on rebuilding a bridge which is the main passage between the states and DC where most white Virginians work. Bushites are talking about stopping the contracting on the bridge because Virginia had to agree to union rules which Maryland upholds. So the bushites are going to try and force Maryland to accept non-union labor in the bridge construction. My question is, what happened to state's rights? Why are Virginia's states rights to be a right to work state better than Maryland's states rights to promote unionism? Well, that's a rhetorical question. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I just glanced at a journal of political economy article in condemning mandates. Mandates are bad, except you want to force schools to get standardized tests. Local control is good, except when inconveniences corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms. How do get away with such hypocrisy? And who figures out the names of their political campaigns -- paycheck protection, death taxes, and the like? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: recent economic trends
Here is a section from my Marx book regarding Marx's theory of replacement cycles. Notice Engel's firm rejection at the end. The simplest of these versions of a reproduction crisis reflected the life cycle of fixed capital. This idea was first broached when Marx was reading the works of Charles Babbage. He was skeptical about Babbage's notion that most capital equipment turns over within five years (see Marx to Engels, 2 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 278). He requested that Engels send him some information on the typical patterns of turnover of fixed capital. Engels quickly supplied Marx with figures that contradicted Babbage's conjecture (Engels to Marx, 4 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 279-81). According to Engels' estimates, the average piece of equipment lasted about 13 years (Ibid.). More importantly, relatively little has been written about devalorization and replacement investment, which has gone beyond Engels' brief comments on the subject. He began: The most reliable criterion [of the turnover of capital] is the percentage by which a manufacturer writes down his machinery each year for wear and tear and repairs, thus recovering the entire cost of his machines within a given period. This percentage is normally 7 1/2, in which case the machinery will be paid for over 13 1/3 years by an annual deduction from profits. . . . Now 13 1/3 years is admittedly a long time in the course of which numerous bankruptcies may occur; you may enter other branches, sell your old machinery, introduce new improvements, but if this calculation wasn't more or less right, practice would have changed it long ago [given the absence of taxes on profits at the time]. Nor does the old machinery that has been sold promptly become old iron; it finds takers among the small spinners, etc., etc., who continue to use it. We ourselves have machines in operation that are certainly 20 years old and, when one occasionally takes a glance inside some of the more ancient and ramshackle concerns up here, one can see antiquated stuff that must be 30 years old at least. Moreover, in the case of most of the machines, only a few of the components wear out to the extent that they have to be replaced after 5 or 6 years. And even after 15 years, provided the basic principle of a machine has not been supersceded by new inventions, there is relatively little difficulty in replacing worn out parts, so that it is hard to set a definite term on the effective life of such machinery. Again, over the last 20 years improvements in spinning machinery have not been such as to preclude the incorporation of almost all of them in the existing structure of the machines, since nearly all are minor innovations. [Ibid., pp. 280-81] Marx uncharacteristically disregarded many of Engels' subtleties. Instead, he confused the time required fully to depreciate equipment on the books with its economic lifetime. Thus, in his response to Engels, Marx noted that the typical business cycle lasted approximately as long as the average piece of equipment (Marx to Engels, 5 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 282-84). Following this line of thought thought, Marx speculated that the business cycle might reflect the cycle of reproduction of fixed capital. Moreover, he noted that this approach would locate the engine of the cycle within large scale industry (Ibid.). Four years later, just after asking Engels to visit in order to help him with details on the Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, Marx again brought up the question of the durability of fixed capital (Marx to Engels, 20 August 1862; in Marx and Engels 1973: 30: 279-81; see also Marx to Engels, 7 May 1868; in Marx and Engels 1973: 32, p. 82; and Engels to Marx, 10 May 1868; in Ibid., pp. 83-85). Engels, caught up in the pressures of the Cotton Famine, was a bit impatient with Marx's notion of the wear and tear of plant and equipment. He suggested that Marx had "gone off the rails. Depreciation time is not, of course, the same for all machines" (Engels to Marx, September 9 1862; in Marx and Engels 1985, p. 414). Atypically, Marx never absorbed Engels' lessons on the turnover of plant and equipment. Instead, he frequently referred to the decennial cycles brought on by the pattern of renewing fixed capital (see, for example, Marx 1967: 2, pp. 185-86; and 1963-1971; Pt. 1, p. 699). -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: the equilibrium real interest rate.
In one of his regularly e-mailed think pieces ("The Economic Policy World
Turned Topsy-Turvy"), Brad deLong wrote:
The Federal Reserve Chair [Greenspan] seems most interested in the big
Treasury problems of government debt and asset management rather than in
what the equilibrium real rate of interest is, and whether the interest
rates that the Federal Reserve sets should be higher or lower than the
equilibrium rate.
The "equilibrium real rate of interest"? what's that? It can't be where the
IS and LM curves intersect, since most macro economists see that
equilibrium as attained automatically, without help from the Fed. So, is
that the same as the "natural rate of interest"? one macro textbook (by RJ
Gordon) once defined the latter as the interest rate at which the IS curve
intersects the vertical line corresponding to the "natural level of real
GDP" (what more scientifically-minded economists call "potential output").
If we define the natural or equilibrium interest rate in this way, there
are two major problems.
(1) we don't know what the level of potential output is, especially now
that we can't identify the level of the NAIRU (what's known as the "natural
rate of unemployment" by economic mystics) -- even if it exists. Even if we
knew the NAIRU, we don't know exactly what the level of labor productivity
is, so that it's hard to figure out the level of output would be at the
level of employment corresponding to the NAIRU. [NAIRU = the
non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, the alleged threshold
unemployment rate below which inflation tends to explode.]
(2) The IS curve might intersect the vertical line corresponding to
potential output at negative real interest rates, as might be happening in
Japan. Further, the slope of the IS changes over time, so the IS curve
might become vertical (or close to it) due to unused capacity, excessive
private-sector debt, and extreme pessimism, so that the IS curve doesn't
intersect the vertical line at potential, so that the natural real interest
rate _doesn't exist_. Even ignoring such dire cases, given the way in which
the state of long-term expectations ("animal spirits," expected
profitability) change over time, the equilibrium interest rate would change
a lot over time as the IS curve shifts around.
Maybe the "equilibrium real rate of interest" is defined more simply, as
the interest rate that prevents inflation from taking off while avoiding
deflation. But that rate should move around a lot over time, with supply
shocks and the like, and shouldn't be thought of as an equilibrium
phenomenon. What is the model behind this theorizing?
Finally, in practice, what the Fed does depends on political pressure --
from the banks, financial markets, etc. -- so that to focus solely on the
Fed's self-portrayal as seeking some holy grail of an equilibrium real
interest rate is deceiving.
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: Re: Re: blowing off steam
Just how is this law about sleeping in bedrooms enforced? I know God must see everything but he doesnt keep video tapes for authorities to peruse.. Cheers, Ken Hanly - Original Message - corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms.
Re: Re: Re: IMF, WORLD BANK CRY UNCLE ONMOZAMBICAN C
Date: Wed, 31 Jan 2001 09:53:26 -0800 From: Brad DeLong [EMAIL PROTECTED] I always thought that successful industrial policies were built on *subsidizing* exports. I've yet to understand why the hell *taxing* Mozambique's exports is going to make anyone (except the owners of cashew processing plants) better off... That's 'cause you still owe us a visit down thisaway, comrade. It would shake you up, I predict. (If it's too far off the beaten track, then check Joe Hanlon's long article on the topic last year in the Review of African Political Economy.) OK...
Re: Re: blowing off steam
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 02/01/01 01:00PM Actually the Virginia legislature, now fully dominated by the Repugs who are seriously beholden to the Christian Right are going off the deep end. The latest? They have just passed a 24-hour waiting period on abortions and also a law requiring students in high schools to stand and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. They can only get out with a note from a clergyperson testifying to their religious or philosophical objections. The governor, recently appointed as National Chair of the Repugs, will sign both of these eagerly. Barkley Rosser ( CB: I heard they are considering a law that in order to live in Virginia one must be a virgin.
Hernando de Soto
The following is an interview with Hernando de Soto, the author of "The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else": http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2001/001/6.24.html Any general or specific critique would be appreciated. David Shemano
Re: Re: recent economic trends
Michael, We are all in full agreement on this business of the replacement cycles and Marx, and Jim D. has even helpfully noted where in Capital Vol. II it appears (possibly elsewhere as well). The issue is that you identified Marx as the father of the "bunching" theory of technologically related waves of investment. Clearly he gets a cycle from some kind of bunching, which could be due to demand factors. But, did he ever identify the (at least initial) bunching with waves of investment in particular technologies in the way that Schumpeter, Trotsky, and others did? Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Michael Perelman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thursday, February 01, 2001 2:33 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7672] Re: recent economic trends Here is a section from my Marx book regarding Marx's theory of replacement cycles. Notice Engel's firm rejection at the end. The simplest of these versions of a reproduction crisis reflected the life cycle of fixed capital. This idea was first broached when Marx was reading the works of Charles Babbage. He was skeptical about Babbage's notion that most capital equipment turns over within five years (see Marx to Engels, 2 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 278). He requested that Engels send him some information on the typical patterns of turnover of fixed capital. Engels quickly supplied Marx with figures that contradicted Babbage's conjecture (Engels to Marx, 4 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 279-81). According to Engels' estimates, the average piece of equipment lasted about 13 years (Ibid.). More importantly, relatively little has been written about devalorization and replacement investment, which has gone beyond Engels' brief comments on the subject. He began: The most reliable criterion [of the turnover of capital] is the percentage by which a manufacturer writes down his machinery each year for wear and tear and repairs, thus recovering the entire cost of his machines within a given period. This percentage is normally 7 1/2, in which case the machinery will be paid for over 13 1/3 years by an annual deduction from profits. . . . Now 13 1/3 years is admittedly a long time in the course of which numerous bankruptcies may occur; you may enter other branches, sell your old machinery, introduce new improvements, but if this calculation wasn't more or less right, practice would have changed it long ago [given the absence of taxes on profits at the time]. Nor does the old machinery that has been sold promptly become old iron; it finds takers among the small spinners, etc., etc., who continue to use it. We ourselves have machines in operation that are certainly 20 years old and, when one occasionally takes a glance inside some of the more ancient and ramshackle concerns up here, one can see antiquated stuff that must be 30 years old at least. Moreover, in the case of most of the machines, only a few of the components wear out to the extent that they have to be replaced after 5 or 6 years. And even after 15 years, provided the basic principle of a machine has not been supersceded by new inventions, there is relatively little difficulty in replacing worn out parts, so that it is hard to set a definite term on the effective life of such machinery. Again, over the last 20 years improvements in spinning machinery have not been such as to preclude the incorporation of almost all of them in the existing structure of the machines, since nearly all are minor innovations. [Ibid., pp. 280-81] Marx uncharacteristically disregarded many of Engels' subtleties. Instead, he confused the time required fully to depreciate equipment on the books with its economic lifetime. Thus, in his response to Engels, Marx noted that the typical business cycle lasted approximately as long as the average piece of equipment (Marx to Engels, 5 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 282-84). Following this line of thought thought, Marx speculated that the business cycle might reflect the cycle of reproduction of fixed capital. Moreover, he noted that this approach would locate the engine of the cycle within large scale industry (Ibid.). Four years later, just after asking Engels to visit in order to help him with details on the Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, Marx again brought up the question of the durability of fixed capital (Marx to Engels, 20 August 1862; in Marx and Engels 1973: 30: 279-81; see also Marx to Engels, 7 May 1868; in Marx and Engels 1973: 32, p. 82; and Engels to Marx, 10 May 1868; in Ibid., pp. 83-85). Engels, caught up in the pressures of the Cotton Famine, was a bit impatient with Marx's notion of the wear and tear of plant and equipment. He suggested that Marx had "gone off the rails. Depreciation time is not, of course, the same for all machines" (Engels to Marx, September 9 1862; in Marx and Engels 1985, p. 414). Atypically, Marx never absorbed Engels'
Re: Hernando de Soto
there's a critique in the book review by Chase in the current issue of CHALLENGE. Chase also reviews Perelman's book. as I understand de Soto, he's arguing that if we give property rights (in their currently-occupied land) to all the third world squatters, it will unleash capitalism. I say "go for it and see what happens." But it won't be very popular with the current owners of that land. That means either a civil war or big subsidies for the land-owners (which few governments in poor countries can afford). At 12:47 PM 2/1/01 -0800, you wrote: The following is an interview with Hernando de Soto, the author of "The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else": http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2001/001/6.24.html Any general or specific critique would be appreciated. David Shemano Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
New book on transition in Russia
I have included just part of the introduction. Info from Johnson's Russia List.. CHeers, Ken Hanly The Tragedy of Russia's Reforms: Market Bolshevism Against Democracy by Peter Reddaway and Dmitri Glinski 768 pp./6 x 9 $29.95 (paper); ISBN: 1-929223-06-4 $55.00 (cloth); ISBN: 1-929223-07-2 For more information or to place an order: Domestic United States Institute of Peace Press P.O. Box 605 Herndon, VA 20172 Tel.: 1-800-868-8064 (U.S. toll-free only) or 1-703-661-1590 Fax: 1-703-661-1501 International Pricing inquiries and orders for Europe and the U.K. should be directed to: United States Institute of Peace Press c/o Plymouth Distributors Ltd. Estover Road Plymouth PL6 7PY United Kingdom Tel.: 1752-202301 Fax: 1752-202333 Throughout the rest of the world, orders should be sent directly to: United States Institute of Peace Press P.O. Box 605 Herndon, VA 20172 USA Fax: 703-661-1501 CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1. Reform or Reaction? The Yeltsin Era in a Millennium of Russian History 2. Russian Postcommunism in the Mirror of Social Theory 3. Populists, the Establishment, and the Soviet Decline 4. From Russian Sovereignty to the August Coup: A Missed Chance for a Democratic Revolution 5. Catching up with the Past: The Political Economy of Shock Therapy 6. Yeltsin and the Opposition: The Art of Co-optation and Marginalization, 1991-93 7. Tanks as the Vehicle of Reform: The 1993 Coup and the Imposition of the New Order 8. The Imperial Presidency in a Privatized State, 1994-1996 9. Market Bolshevism in Action: The Dream Team, Shock Therapy II, and Yeltsin's Search for a Successor Epilogue: Market Bolshevism, A Historical Interpretation Notes Index *** INTRODUCTION The Tragedy of Russia's Reforms: Market Bolshevism Against Democracy By Peter Reddaway ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) and Dmitri Glinski ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) United States Institute of Peace Press [www.usip.org] 2001 768 pp. Washington, D.C. Few would dispute that the events of 1989-91 that originated in Moscow and culminated in the disappearance of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Russia as its main successor state marked a watershed in recent world history. Yet the true meaning and consequences of these events are subjects for a worldwide debate that is only beginning to unfold. While many Western observers--and a few fortunately positioned Russians--exulted in these changes and in the glowing prospects they saw for a new world order, Russia from at least 1990 has been sinking--from the socioeconomic, demographic, cultural, and moral points of view--into turmoil and decay. From late 1991-early 1992, a period marked by the first application of the medicine of radical deregulation, privatization, and an economic austerity regime prescribed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)--a course of "treatment" that was known, perhaps for lack of a better term, as "shock therapy"--the country's disease became markedly more severe. Whether the eventual bottoming out and upturn in the economy of 1999-2000 can be sustained remains to be seen. The amount of destruction has exceeded that of the comparable American experience during the Great Depression and the industrial loss inflicted on the Soviet Union in 1941-45 by World War II. To give but a few figures: from 1991 to 1998, Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 43.3 percent; in particular, industrial production fell by 56 percent, and the agricultural decline was even larger. (For comparison, from 1929 to 1933, U.S. GDP shrank by 30.5 percent; between 1941 and 1945, the Soviet GDP declined by 24 percent.) Meanwhile, capital investment in the Russian economy fell by a spectacular 78 percent between 1991 and 1995, and this decline has continued ever since. Of all the country's economic activities, its high-technology industries--which are strategically important for the economic development and survival of major industrial nations--suffered the worst. Thus, for example, production in electronics fell by 78 percent between 1991 and 1995. Closely related to this collapse of domestic production, imports in 1997 made up half of the Russian consumer market until the ruble's 1998 collapse reversed the trend. Inflation, which soared to 1,354 percent in 1992, was gradually but never fully tamed--declining to 11 percent in 1997, but rising sharply again in 1998 to 84 percent, and then declining again. It cut the average real incomes of working Russians by 46 percent in 1992; incomes managed to improve until 1998; but in 1998-99, the population's real disposable income dropped by a third. Behind these figures lurk qualitative changes in Russia's identity and its place in the world. Thus Russia has been precipitously losing its status as an intellectual great power--a status it enjoyed for a much longer time, and with much more benefit for itself and the rest of the world, than it enjoyed its status as a military giant. The number of Russian scientists (who once accounted for
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: In December 2000, there were 2,677 mass layoff actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment; the number of workers involved totaled 326,743. The number of layoff events and initial claims for unemployment insurance were the highest for the month of December since the series began in 1995; part of the increase was due to a calendar effect, since December 2000 contained 5 weeks that ended in the month compared with 4 weeks in each of the prior four Decembers. The total of layoff events for all of 2000, at 15,738, and the total number of initial claimants, at 1,835,592, were higher than in 1999 (14,909 and 1,572,399, respectively). The Federal Reserve Board cuts short-term interest rate targets another 50 basis points, and economists say another half point reduction is likely by mid-March if not before (Daily Labor Report, page A-8; The Washington Post, page 1; The New York Times, page 1; The Wall Street Journal, page 1). Real gross domestic product growth decelerated to 1.4 percent for the fourth quarter of 2000, reaching its slowest rate of growth since the second quarter of 1995, the Commerce Department reports. Analysts had been expecting the GDP to grow about 2 percent, but sharper than expected cutbacks in capital spending weakened the overall growth. For all of 2000, real GDP grew by 5.0 percent. As economists try to gauge the severity of the economic slowdown, many of them are counting on productivity gains, which have been robust since 1995, to continue playing a critical role in holding down inflation. If much of the recent productivity gain is liked to business spending on information technology, as a recent Federal Reserve study suggests, the outlook for technology investment is key to prospects for productivity this year. The most recent productivity figures compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that labor productivity -- output per hour worked -- rose 3.3 percent in the third quarter 2000 after jumping 6.1 percent in the second quarter. Despite the fact that hourly compensation accelerated to a 6.3 percent rise in the third quarter, the productivity gain kept unit labor costs to a 2.9 percent advance. Fourth quarter productivity data are scheduled for release February 7 (Daily Labor Report, pages D-1; D-10; The New York Times, page 1). The United States economy grew at its slowest rate in more than 5 years during the final quarter of 2000, as businesses abruptly cut their spending on new equipment, the government said yesterday. The Commerce Department's quarterly report depicted the $10.1 trillion United States economy verging on a slowdown or a recession. Growth remained faster than it had been in the first half of 1995, when the country avoided a recession and the economy than entered one of the best 5-year periods in history. But over the final 3 months of 2000, personal consumption was the only part of the private sector that expanded, and in the early weeks of this year consumer confidence has plummeted, according to two major surveys (The New York Times, page C1). Sales of new homes actually rose 13.4 percent in December, more than reversing a drop during the previous month, the Commerce Department reports (The New York Times, page C6; The Wall Street Journal, page A8). The Purchasing Management Association of Chicago says that manufacturing activity in the Chicago area had fallen this month to its lowest level in 18 years (The New York Times, page C6). The American economy has hit a snag, no doubt about it, but that has not deterred the nation's most influential economic forecaster, the Congressional Budget Office, from issuing a much more promising projection of the economy over the next decade than it had offered in the past. "The dip in the economy is expected to be short-lived," Barry R. Anderson, deputy director of the budget office, told Congress today. At the same time, Anderson said, the office's professional forecasters believe the economy will grow faster over the next 10 years than they had previously thought because they now expect greater growth in worker productivity and business investment. The forecast was that the economy would grow 2.4 percent in this calendar year and that lower interest rates would cause it to rebound to 3.4 percent next year. Then the growth rate is expected to level off at an average of 3.1 percent through 2011. That average is three-tenths of a percentage point higher than the long-range average expected just last July. The budget office has been making 10-year forecasts only since 1992, so their accuracy cannot be assessed. Productivity is a measurement of the efficiency of workers. From 1974 until the mid-1990's, productivity grew an average of 1.5
Re: Hernando de Soto
I apologize but I don't have time to read it right now. He did a very nice interview on Doug Henwood's radio show. He is correct that many rules and regulations make it difficult for poor people to become entrepreneurs -- for example, merchants in this country commonly take measures against street vendors. I don't see how he can move from this observation to suggesting that removing such restrictions could eliminate poverty. On Thu, Feb 01, 2001 at 12:47:57PM -0800, David Shemano wrote: The following is an interview with Hernando de Soto, the author of "The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else": http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2001/001/6.24.html Any general or specific critique would be appreciated. David Shemano -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: Re: recent economic trends
Marx suggested something like an echo cycle occurring every ten years, but he never gave a reason for the original bunching. On Thu, Feb 01, 2001 at 03:44:41PM -0500, J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. wrote: Michael, We are all in full agreement on this business of the replacement cycles and Marx, and Jim D. has even helpfully noted where in Capital Vol. II it appears (possibly elsewhere as well). The issue is that you identified Marx as the father of the "bunching" theory of technologically related waves of investment. Clearly he gets a cycle from some kind of bunching, which could be due to demand factors. But, did he ever identify the (at least initial) bunching with waves of investment in particular technologies in the way that Schumpeter, Trotsky, and others did? Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Michael Perelman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thursday, February 01, 2001 2:33 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7672] Re: recent economic trends Here is a section from my Marx book regarding Marx's theory of replacement cycles. Notice Engel's firm rejection at the end. The simplest of these versions of a reproduction crisis reflected the life cycle of fixed capital. This idea was first broached when Marx was reading the works of Charles Babbage. He was skeptical about Babbage's notion that most capital equipment turns over within five years (see Marx to Engels, 2 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 278). He requested that Engels send him some information on the typical patterns of turnover of fixed capital. Engels quickly supplied Marx with figures that contradicted Babbage's conjecture (Engels to Marx, 4 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 279-81). According to Engels' estimates, the average piece of equipment lasted about 13 years (Ibid.). More importantly, relatively little has been written about devalorization and replacement investment, which has gone beyond Engels' brief comments on the subject. He began: The most reliable criterion [of the turnover of capital] is the percentage by which a manufacturer writes down his machinery each year for wear and tear and repairs, thus recovering the entire cost of his machines within a given period. This percentage is normally 7 1/2, in which case the machinery will be paid for over 13 1/3 years by an annual deduction from profits. . . . Now 13 1/3 years is admittedly a long time in the course of which numerous bankruptcies may occur; you may enter other branches, sell your old machinery, introduce new improvements, but if this calculation wasn't more or less right, practice would have changed it long ago [given the absence of taxes on profits at the time]. Nor does the old machinery that has been sold promptly become old iron; it finds takers among the small spinners, etc., etc., who continue to use it. We ourselves have machines in operation that are certainly 20 years old and, when one occasionally takes a glance inside some of the more ancient and ramshackle concerns up here, one can see antiquated stuff that must be 30 years old at least. Moreover, in the case of most of the machines, only a few of the components wear out to the extent that they have to be replaced after 5 or 6 years. And even after 15 years, provided the basic principle of a machine has not been supersceded by new inventions, there is relatively little difficulty in replacing worn out parts, so that it is hard to set a definite term on the effective life of such machinery. Again, over the last 20 years improvements in spinning machinery have not been such as to preclude the incorporation of almost all of them in the existing structure of the machines, since nearly all are minor innovations. [Ibid., pp. 280-81] Marx uncharacteristically disregarded many of Engels' subtleties. Instead, he confused the time required fully to depreciate equipment on the books with its economic lifetime. Thus, in his response to Engels, Marx noted that the typical business cycle lasted approximately as long as the average piece of equipment (Marx to Engels, 5 March 1858; in Marx and Engels 1983: 40, pp. 282-84). Following this line of thought thought, Marx speculated that the business cycle might reflect the cycle of reproduction of fixed capital. Moreover, he noted that this approach would locate the engine of the cycle within large scale industry (Ibid.). Four years later, just after asking Engels to visit in order to help him with details on the Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, Marx again brought up the question of the durability of fixed capital (Marx to Engels, 20 August 1862; in Marx and Engels 1973: 30: 279-81; see also Marx to Engels, 7 May 1868; in Marx and Engels 1973: 32, p. 82; and Engels to Marx, 10 May 1868; in Ibid., pp. 83-85). Engels, caught up in the pressures of the Cotton Famine, was a bit
Re: Soviet Union foreign policy
The USSR quite sensibly backed off from nuclear war with the US over Cuba--Khrushchev, unlike Kennedy, having more brains than testosterone. The bet, not a crazy one, though wrong, in putting missiles in Cuba, was that the US would respond sanely without postering. The assertion that the USSR had an internationalist foreign policy is unsupported, and also nonsense. The USSR supported national liberation and socialism where it conformed to Soviet natioan interests, and not where not. Stalin himself crushed the Spanish revolutioon. He sold Greece and tried to sell Yugo to the West at Yalta. He established an imperial buffer zone in East Europe that was maintained by force in Berlin, Hungary, Czecho, and Poland. I could go on.Soviet foreign policy is only internationalist for someline like you, Charles, who identifies the interests of the world working class with those of the Soviet state. The USSR was not a _capitalist_ exploiter, but it wasa traditional great power in its foreign relations, looking to the narrow national interests of the state, not to the interests of a wider group, such as the working class. --jks [EMAIL PROTECTED] After the mid 20's, you can get a lot further in predicting Soviet foreign policy using a straight line national interest calculation than an ideological one. (( CB: How was almost going to nuclear war with the U.S. over Cuba in the Soviet narrow national interest ? How was one way economic support to Cuba and other countries in Soviet national interest ? The SU had internationalist foreign policy Sure, the USSR supported some national liberation movements--that is one of the few half-way decent things it did. But it never did that when it didn't seem that this would not further great power goals. ((( CB: The SU didn't act like a capitalist great power. It didn't have colonies , i.e. economically exploitative relations with the other socialist and socialist path nations _ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
Re: Re: RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam
Yeah, I would say. There's problems with unconstitutional conditions. Btw, are you sure the note must be from a clergy member? That's clearly unconstitutional. Suppose you object to the pledge cause you are an atheist? Btw, I went to primary school in VA, it may explain why I am so strange. --jks Mat, Liable to be suspended from school. The original bill was even stricter, but was cut back in face of its obvious unconstitutionality in the face of the 1943 Supreme Court ruling on this matter. A lot of people think the bill that has just passed is also unconstitutional. BTW, this is a followup on last year's law mandating a required morning "moment of silence" in public schools. There have been a lot of protests with students sitting in the halls and getting into various sorts of trouble. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Forstater, Mathew [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Thursday, February 01, 2001 1:38 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7666] RE: Re: Re: blowing off steam so if you refuse to say the pledge (as I did when I was in 4th grade) are you breaking the law and liable to be arrested? -Original Message- From: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 01, 2001 12:00 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [PEN-L:7659] Re: Re: blowing off steam Actually the Virginia legislature, now fully dominated by the Repugs who are seriously beholden to the Christian Right are going off the deep end. The latest? They have just passed a 24-hour waiting period on abortions and also a law requiring students in high schools to stand and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. They can only get out with a note from a clergyperson testifying to their religious or philosophical objections. The governor, recently appointed as National Chair of the Repugs, will sign both of these eagerly. Barkley Rosser -Original Message- From: Margaret Coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2001 9:12 PM Subject: [PEN-L:7629] Re: blowing off steam Mike reminded me of how floored I was when I heard about the Virginia legislature passing laws about where to sleep in the house you own... To make matters even more hypocritical, Virginia is a right to work state -- because unions interfere in the market place. So it's o.k. to stamp out living wages, but we can't have people falling asleep in front of the TV in the living room. To add to this, right now Virginia and Maryland are cooperating on rebuilding a bridge which is the main passage between the states and DC where most white Virginians work. Bushites are talking about stopping the contracting on the bridge because Virginia had to agree to union rules which Maryland upholds. So the bushites are going to try and force Maryland to accept non-union labor in the bridge construction. My question is, what happened to state's rights? Why are Virginia's states rights to be a right to work state better than Maryland's states rights to promote unionism? Well, that's a rhetorical question. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I just glanced at a journal of political economy article in condemning mandates. Mandates are bad, except you want to force schools to get standardized tests. Local control is good, except when inconveniences corporations. Then it has to be overruled. Individuals know what is best, but then Virginia legislates that people must sleep in their bedrooms. How do get away with such hypocrisy? And who figures out the names of their political campaigns -- paycheck protection, death taxes, and the like? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] _ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
ECB is smiling
Full article at: http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13515-2001Feb1.html Duisenberg's Confidence Contrasts With Fed's Alarm By Alister Bull, European Economics Correspondent Reuters Thursday, February 1, 2001; 12:49 PM FRANKFURT, Feb 1Fortune is finally favouring European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg. A recovery in the euro and Europe's economic strength against the backdrop of U.S. gloom have allowed him an air of confidence that was in plain view on Thursday at the ECB's first press conference of 2001. The body language was no bluff as ECB calm contrasted starkly with the alarm sounded by the Federal Reserve, when it cut rates by a hefty 50 basis point a day earlierits second such a move in a month. Duisenberg savoured the sense of for the 12-nation currency bloc being in the driving seat for the world economy in the face of trouble in the United States and Japan. Although moderating the tone of his comments to admit a more 'neutral' bias, he left ECB rates on hold at 4.75 percent and insisted Europe would be largely immune to the U.S. flu. "While downside risks to real GDP growth exist, growth is very likely to continue at a reasonably robust pace," he said, adding that this would mean at nearly three percent. Last year the collapsing value of the euro exposed the veteran Dutch central banker to the scorn of financial markets and the strain sometimes showed as he confronted the media once a month following a bank council meeting. This time, Duisenberg could hardly contain his satisfaction as his long-ignored predictions that European growth rates would catch up and even overtake the U.S. were being proved right. MEMORY OF EURO CRISIS FADES Since the dark days of October, when candid comments by Duisenberg to the London Times newspaper forced the euro to a fresh all-time low, the single currency has bounced, and euro zone growth has held up as bad news gathered in the U.S. On Thursday, the ECB repeated warnings about the need for vigilance against inflationary wage demands and structural reform. But its statement confirmed that European officials still believed that the region would weather a slowing world economy thanks to lower oil prices and the benefits of lower taxes. The press conference, the first time since December 14 that Duisenberg has addressed the media, preserved the impression that the central bank was not losing much sleep over growth. Some analysts fear that its lack of a sense of urgency compared poorly with the active stance of the Fed and could sacrifice European growth through too much caution. But Duisenberg maintained that success in the fight against inflation was the best contribution the region could make to world growth, a clear warning designed to stifle calls from politicians and business for a swift cut in interest rates. The latest economic sentiment surveys backed the ECB's confidence that the eurozone would continue to grow at a respectable clip above long-term growth averages of 2.25-2.5 percent. In the U.S., the picture is turning increasingly ugly. January numbers from the U.S. National Association of Purchasing Managers showed an even steeper than expected decline in sentiment and warned that the world's largest economy was now "awfully close" to zero growth. Duisenberg didn't quite say 'I told you so', but argued that the eurozone's performance owed much to the single currency, which until now has struggled to find favour with the sceptical populations of its member states. "The existence of the euro and the single monetary policy has provided the euro area with an institutional setting which leaves it significantly less exposed to external influences," he said. 2001 Reuters
here's an economic proposal
here's an economic proposal, reprinted from SLATE: A NY [Times] op-ed plumps for an idea favorably discussed by the WP's David Broder in his column yesterday, and now apparently making the policy rounds in Washington: Instead of a tax cut programmed over the coming decade based on guesses about future budget surpluses, how about returning a portion of each year's actual surplus to taxpayers in the form of a rebate check? The key advantage: when the surpluses don't pan out, the government isn't committed to giving away money it turns out not to have. The Times piece suggests that this year's check could and should total $500 per permanent resident, so that a family of four would get $2,000. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
Re: RE: California energy crisis
The next election might have an Initiative to have a California Power Authority take over everything. A lot of lefties will vote for that. Gene Coyle David Shemano wrote: The California Assembly failed to pass the utility bailout last night because of lack of Republican support for rate increases. Does this mean California lefties will be voting Republican in the next election? http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/national/ap865.htm David Shemano
Re: here's an economic proposal
This would be a wonderful opportunity for demagogues. A politician who votes to spend money, say for the homeless, would be accused of taking checks directly away from individuals. On Thu, Feb 01, 2001 at 04:28:18PM -0800, Jim Devine wrote: here's an economic proposal, reprinted from SLATE: A NY [Times] op-ed plumps for an idea favorably discussed by the WP's David Broder in his column yesterday, and now apparently making the policy rounds in Washington: Instead of a tax cut programmed over the coming decade based on guesses about future budget surpluses, how about returning a portion of each year's actual surplus to taxpayers in the form of a rebate check? The key advantage: when the surpluses don't pan out, the government isn't committed to giving away money it turns out not to have. The Times piece suggests that this year's check could and should total $500 per permanent resident, so that a family of four would get $2,000. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: here's an economic proposal
it's also progressive (in the sense that each permanent resident gets an equal amount) while reinforcing macroeconomic fluctuations at the same time. (A recession would cause the surplus to fall, and thus the stimulus to the economy from the distributions of the surplus.) That's not a very common combination, something only a professional pundit could think up. At 08:06 PM 02/01/2001 -0800, you wrote: This would be a wonderful opportunity for demagogues. A politician who votes to spend money, say for the homeless, would be accused of taking checks directly away from individuals. On Thu, Feb 01, 2001 at 04:28:18PM -0800, Jim Devine wrote: here's an economic proposal, reprinted from SLATE: A NY [Times] op-ed plumps for an idea favorably discussed by the WP's David Broder in his column yesterday, and now apparently making the policy rounds in Washington: Instead of a tax cut programmed over the coming decade based on guesses about future budget surpluses, how about returning a portion of each year's actual surplus to taxpayers in the form of a rebate check? The key advantage: when the surpluses don't pan out, the government isn't committed to giving away money it turns out not to have. The Times piece suggests that this year's check could and should total $500 per permanent resident, so that a family of four would get $2,000. Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
