On 27 Jun 2012, at 19:57, meekerdb wrote:

On 6/27/2012 9:06 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:

Not counting quantum randomness the only reason the many diaries will be different is that the many authors of those many diaries, you, end up in different environments.

Specifically due to the fact that comp allows self-duplication. That is the key point.

So "step 3" is just a convoluted way of saying that you can't always predict how environmental factors will change nor how those factors will effect you, which is just a convoluted way of saying that you never know what new things the universe will throw at you, which is just a convoluted way of saying that predicting is hard, especially the future.

It has nothing to do with evolution of environment. The indeterminacy is definite, and brought by the possibility of self- duplication.

I don't understand what you are saying? Why is 'self-duplication' different from 'duplication'?

In this reasoning, it isn't. (It would be if you are alone, or if you don't trust the others and build your own teleportation device, but that is not relevant for the reasoning).

And it's not clear where the boundary is between 'you' and 'the environment'.

We can only hope that the "doctor", or the teleportation boxes engineers have choose the right comp substitution level. But the reasoning assumes, non constructively, that they did so.

If 'you' is just the algorithm your brain is executing, then the thermal molecular motion in your brain is 'environment' and divergent of thought is due to 'the environment'. But if 'you' is your physical body/brain then the divergence is inherent in the physics.

Does this change the P(W) = P(M) = 1/2 for first person prediction on its future first person experience in step 3?



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