On Thu, Oct 31, 2013 at 1:04 PM, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote:

> this distracts from the question asked, which concerns the first person
> pov, from the first person pov. That is the first person experience. [...]
> Comp accepts that both copies are equivalent (with respect to identity)
> continuations of the original, but the prediction bears on the first person
> experience.

It is a mystery that Marchal can not get it through his head that copying a
person means there are now 2 identical first person experiences because YOU
HAS BEEN DUPLICATED, and the 2 will remain identical until one sees
something that the other has not.

> If 100% was true, for P(W), we would have, in the iterated version,  the
> history WWWWWWW... having a 100% probability, yet, all diaries but one,
> will contradict that prediction.
> If "you" predicted that "you" will see Washington and "you" does see
Washington then the prediction that there was a 100% chance that "you" will
see Washington was correct and it doesn't matter how many people who also
lay claim to the title "you" don't see Washington.

> The proba concerns the first person experience that you will live, and
> recall in the next instants, by writing it in the diary.

The diary is useless because the diary was written by "you" and contains
predictions about the further adventures of "you", but now there are 2 (or
more) people with the title "you" and no way to determine which one the
diary was referring to.  And the diary is useless because good predictions
have no more to do with identity or a sense of self than bad predictions.

  John K Clark

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