> On 23 Feb 2020, at 23:49, Bruce Kellett <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Mon, Feb 24, 2020 at 12:21 AM Bruno Marchal <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > On 23 Feb 2020, at 04:11, Bruce Kellett <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> >> I don't really understand your comment. I was thinking of Bruno's >> WM-duplication. You could impose the idea that each duplication at each >> branch point on every branch is an independent Bernoulli trial with p = 0.5 >> on this (success being defined arbitrarily as W or M). Then, if these >> probabilities carry over from trial to trial, you end up with every binary >> sequence, each with weight 1/2^N. Summing sequences with the same number of >> 0s and 1s, you get the Pascal Triangle distribution that Bruno wants. >> >> The trouble is that such a procedure is entirely arbitrary. The only >> probability that one could objectively assign to say, W, on each Bernoulli >> trial is one, > > That is certainly wrong. If you are correct, then P(W) = 1 is written in the > personal diary, > > I did say "objectively assign". In other words, this was a 3p comment. You > confuse 1p with 3p yet again.
Well, if you “objectively” assign P(W) = 1, the guy in M will subjectively refute that prediction, and as the question was about the subjective accessible experience, he objectively, and predictably, refute your statement. If not, tell me what is your prediction in Helsinki again, by keeping in mind that it concerns your future subjective experience only. > > which is taken with in the duplication box. But then the guy in M will open > its diary and see that his P = 1 is refuted. It is enough that once copy > refute a prediction to abandon it as valid. > >> since W certainly occurs for each trial. > > Not from the first person perspective. > > Same comment as above. You use a basic confusion between 3p and 1p > perspectives to criticize the clear points that I am making. But then you are changing the question that I asked, and which indeed requires the distinction between 1p and 3p, which you don’t here. > > Sometimes it could be M, and the first person experience of “felling being in > M” is logical incompatible (with the protocole described here) with the > experience of “feeling to be in W”. No copies at all will feel to be in the > two cities at once. That never occurs. > > I have never claimed that they will confuse 0 and 1 in their binary diary > records. It is just that on repetition of the duplication trials, all diaries > record different strings. And each diary is a legitimate source from which an > observer can infer a probability value. No, they have to be the same prediction for the majority of the copies. When comparing their diaries, they can see that the best prediction which would have maximalise the benefits in case of bet (in entire duplicated populations) is given by the binomial coefficient proportion. > These probability values cover the complete range p contained in [0,1]. There > is no unique or natural probability for this scenario. Any probability > interpretation that you impose is entirely arbitrary. So to bet on "Space Odyssey" is as good than betting on white noise in the "2^(16180 * 10000) * (60 * 90) * 24-duplication-movie experience"? (Cf my preceding post). Bruno > > Bruce > > Bruno > >> In other words, there is no natural probability associated with this >> duplication process, so imposing one is ad hoc and arbitrary. > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLQ0a%2BzKLd1%2BNzN2qLDi_Osa4r%2BqP9BS9W%2BtWfD_np-z%3DQ%40mail.gmail.com > > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLQ0a%2BzKLd1%2BNzN2qLDi_Osa4r%2BqP9BS9W%2BtWfD_np-z%3DQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/18D70312-E638-4C0A-80B6-D5BE6617F540%40ulb.ac.be.
