On Tue, Feb 25, 2020 at 12:10 AM Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote:
> On 23 Feb 2020, at 23:49, Bruce Kellett <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Mon, Feb 24, 2020 at 12:21 AM Bruno Marchal <[email protected]> wrote: > >> On 23 Feb 2020, at 04:11, Bruce Kellett <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> I don't really understand your comment. I was thinking of Bruno's >> WM-duplication. You could impose the idea that each duplication at each >> branch point on every branch is an independent Bernoulli trial with p = 0.5 >> on this (success being defined arbitrarily as W or M). Then, if these >> probabilities carry over from trial to trial, you end up with every binary >> sequence, each with weight 1/2^N. Summing sequences with the same number of >> 0s and 1s, you get the Pascal Triangle distribution that Bruno wants. >> >> The trouble is that such a procedure is entirely arbitrary. The only >> probability that one could objectively assign to say, W, on each Bernoulli >> trial is one, >> >> >> That is certainly wrong. If you are correct, then P(W) = 1 is written in >> the personal diary, >> > > I did say "objectively assign". In other words, this was a 3p comment. You > confuse 1p with 3p yet again. > > > Well, if you “objectively” assign P(W) = 1, the guy in M will subjectively > refute that prediction, and as the question was about the subjective > accessible experience, he objectively, and predictably, refute your > statement. > And if you objectively assign p(W) = p(M) = 0.5, then with the W-guy and the M-guy will both say that your theory is refuted, since they both see only one city: W-guy, W with p = 1.0, and the M-guy, M with p =1.0.. > If not, tell me what is your prediction in Helsinki again, by keeping in > mind that it concerns your future subjective experience only. > In Helsinki I can offer no value for the probability since, given the protocol, I know that all probabilities will be realized on repetitions of the duplication. I cannot infer a probability from just one trial., but the probability I infer from N repetitions can be any value in [0,1]. Bruce -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLR%3DwaxzOKFupNKBVKszHgTW4CB6ruthObap7mqxdL3z7g%40mail.gmail.com.
