[www.niftyviews.com:23040] Fwd: Nifty Fut(Aug): Next Big Upside Only Abv 8595-8675 For 8760-9030, Otherwise 8325-8200 Zone Again On The Card--RBI Tone GST Might Be The Triggers
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut(Aug): Next Big Upside Only Abv 8595-8675 For 8760-9030, Otherwise 8325-8200 Zone Again On The Card--RBI Tone GST Might Be The Triggers Date: Mon, 03 Aug 2015 08:54:03 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis (Time Price):*_ NF (LTP: 8572; SGX : 8582) has to sustain at least over 8595 for an immediate target of 8620-8653-8675*. Only consecutive closing above 8675, NF may target 8710-8760* and sustaining above that, it could scale up to 8875-8950-9030-9200 zone in the near future (bullish case scenario). On the downside, inability to sustain above 8595, NF may face selling pressure and could drift to 8529-8466 zone. Sustain below 8466, NF may further fall to 8410-8326* area and consecutive closing below that 8250-8209-8136 might be the target in the coming days (bear case scenario). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_ Gap Up/Dw (Indicative) SGX NIFTY 858210 NF-JULY LTP 8572 SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 86208653-75*8710-60*8800-20 8850-75 8900-50 8600 Weak86008553-29*8490-66*8446-10 8366-26*8290-50 8620 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 86208675* 8760* 887589509030-200 8600 Weak86008529* 8466* 84108326* 8250-09 8620 _*Some Inputs:*_ Nifty and more specifically, Bank Nifty gave a nice rally for the last two/three trading sessions by respecting immediate positional support of 8326 on the back of some positive news flow like proposed EPFO investments in our stock market (through PSU ETF), Govt's recapitalization plan for ailing PSBS (Rs.7 cr over next three years) and hopes of GST RBI dovish tone. All eyes will on tomorrow's RBI event, though there is little hope for a rate cut, any other liquidity booster package (like CRR/SLR/MSF rate cut) will ignite the market. In any way, RBI tone will also be important (hawkish or dovish) for an expected rate cut in next policy meetings (Oct-Dec'15 Feb'16). Market is expecting another 0.50% cut by FY16. As par some estimates, India's Nifty PEG ratio is one of the highest (0.73) and made us the 2-nd most expensive in the emerging market indices (EM), just behind Shanghai. PEG=(PE/EXPECTED GROWTH IN EPS)=(22/30)=0.73 (in case of Nifty) No doubt, we are expensive, but we have safe heavens appeal too, specially after China debacle. There is no dearth of liquidity globally and its up to our Govt to quicken various reform with a consistent policy and there by attracting huge investments from investors awaiting on the side line. Looking ahead, GST land bill implementations in one form or other along with majority in RS for the NDA will be vital for an overall change of sentiment but we also need the actual growth in real EPS for the corporate India by H2FY16. _*Technical Charts:*_ http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-p5aKRzy4Abc/Vb7bVLNppCI/DpA/G8x_r3lVehk/s1600/NF-31-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pCOFjSdunQ8/Vb7bWoSiSYI/DpI/04AKmXB1igc/s1600/NF-FIBB-31-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2AgJY9ylohI/Vb7bYeO-3hI/DpQ/jUpbFiuyp3M/s1600/NF-WK-31-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XgOR30XngzA/Vb7baMd05PI/DpY/R-l6dpDQyac/s1600/NF-PATTERN-31-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vp3PaJq4ga0/Vb7bdlaS7qI/Dpg/1v9XQB095YY/s1600/NF-PATTERN-MT-31-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TFcgD70vRJI/Vb7bfqFpjnI/Dpo/Cry7XaKln44/s1600/NF-TL-31-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http
[www.niftyviews.com:23115] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Aug): 8325-8280 Zone Is Crucial Now, Sustain Below That, We May Be Heading For 8000-7900 Area---Rate Cut GST Hope May Help
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Aug): 8325-8280 Zone Is Crucial Now, Sustain Below That, We May Be Heading For 8000-7900 Area---Rate Cut GST Hope May Help Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2015 09:05:44 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ NF (LTP:8368; SGX:8373) has now good positional support zone of around 8325-8280 zone and consecutive closing below that, it may fall to 8245-8219 and 8154-8135 in the immediate to short term. Only sustaining below 8135, there is a high probability that NF will be further dragged to 8045-8000 7930-7880 territory in the near future (bear case probability). On the upside, sustaining above 8325, NF has to break 8380-8410 area and sustaining above that 8456-8485-8513 zone might be the target in the immediate to short term. Only consecutive closing above 8513, it may further rally towards 8550-8600 8640-8675 territory in the near term. Further, on the up side, only consecutive closing above 8675, NF may scale up to 8760 (bullish scenario probability). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional)*_ Gap Up/Dw (Indicative) SGX NIFTY 8368-5 NF-Aug LTP 8373 SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 83458380-410* 8456-85 8513-50 8600-75*8700-60 8325 Weak83258299-80*8245-19 8180-35 8075-45 8000-7930 8345 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 83458410* 848585508675* 87608325 Weak83258280* 8219813580457930-7880 8345 _*Some Rationale:*_ Its a mere coincidence that when we are trading near a charted strong supply zone (NF:8600-8675), China Yuan devaluation and GST fiasco (parliament logjam) hits us at the same time. The result is there. Market is basically confusing for this Chinese style of QE and why it is so desperate ? Is it because China is dedicated to show 7% growth at any cost or there is something serious in its economy, that we don't know and officials are panicking ? In any way, Yuan devaluation means further cheap Chinese exports and depressed global commodity prices in the days ahead. Most probably, Fed has some excuse now to delay planned rate hike from Sep to Dec'15 for disinflation fear. There is a high probability that Fed continue to be in the side line even after Dec'15 for various macro economic global factors (as USD is quite strong and hurting US economy too). Going by the depressed commodity prices and Chinese action, Canada may be in the next pipe line for its own QE among G6 countries. Going forward, Chinese devaluation may be at the near end, as it will be prudent for them to make balancing act for its exporters and serious massive capital outflows. Back to our home, we may see a out of policy rate cut by RBI very shortly amid this so called global currency war and our lower CPI figure released yesterday evening. As the parliamentary logjam (political drama) continues and today being the last day of the monsoon session, all eyes will be on our politicians, some of whom are wasting our hard earned tax payers money. As par rough estimate, total cost of MP(s) for five years is around Rs.950 cr alone !! In any way, if GST will be not passed today in RS, then there may be short session or even joint session of parliament to pass it, as it appears that Govt is determined now and there is huge pressure on the responsible oppositions to pass it either. If GST is passed, there is a high probability that, we will head for 8675-8760 zone in the near term. In the event, if there is no GST or any hope for it in the near future, we may be heading for 7900 zone in the immediate future too. _*Technical Charts:*_ http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-btN0pTa59VY/VcwOBfcSBCI/DvM/jF2k0YK-Ov0/s1600/NF-12-08
[www.niftyviews.com:23162] Fwd: SP-500 (Fut): Down Nearly 8% From Cycle High, Below 1965, Target May Be 1950-1930-1900 And It Need To Close Above 2015-2035 For Any Sustainable Recovery
Forwarded Message Subject: SP-500 (Fut): Down Nearly 8% From Cycle High, Below 1965, Target May Be 1950-1930-1900 And It Need To Close Above 2015-2035 For Any Sustainable Recovery Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 10:19:44 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ Looking at the chart, SP (CMP:1969), has immediate support of 1965 and sustain below that came 1950-1936-1930. Only consecutive closing below 1930, it could further fall to 1920-1900 1872-1850-1835 area in the near term (worst bear case probability). Possibility below 1900 is unlikely as of now. On the bright side, sustaining above 1965-1972 zone, immediate target might be around 1978-1985 1995-2008-2015. Only consecutive closing above 2015, SP could target 2035-2050-2070 in the short term and sustaining above that it may further scale up to 2085-2101-2117-2126-2134 in the near term (bullish scenario). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_ SL/5FROM SLR SP-500 CMP 1969 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 1972 1978-85 1995 2008-15* 2035-50 2070-85* 2101-17 2126-34 1965 Weak19651950* 1936-30*1920190018721850 18351972 _*Rationale:*_ As we all know, China jitters (Yuan devaluation slow down fear), tepid US growth amid strong USD lack of confidence in Fed for liftoff and Greece uncertainty (political situation) is taking a toll over global market including SP-500. Adding to the wound is crash in Crude (below 40$, may target 32$) and that is affecting energy companies producers nations very badly. The market want sustainable US growth at any cost to lead the global economy, but various confusing data and lack of inflation amid depressed commodity prices and China slowdown are some of the factors, that may be affecting confidence of Fed to raise rates. Looking ahead, Fed may continue its verbal intervention tactics by various dovish hawkish FOMC members in a cyclical way to control the already strong USD in a preferred range, rather than any actual action. Going by the Fed Fund Rate, there is now around 35% probability of Sep rate hike and all are looking for any real action in Dec'15. Again, that said, in Dec'15, Fed might preferred to be in the side line and ultimately the near 0.25% Fed rate will be the New Normal in the changed world. Another thing is that all the major four pillars (Fed/ECB/BOJ/PBOC) of the global economy are closely co-ordinating with each other amid this drama of Currency War and actually controlling the overall market since Lehman Crisis period in 2006-08. So, do not expect the SP to correct more than 10% from the last cycle high of around 2134 and that came around 1920. Thus 1900 in SP should be the final base line for now. In the last few years, whenever, SP corrects around 5%, Fed intervened through various dovish FOMC members (like Dudley) and they basically did not allow the market to fall more than 5%. May be, SP at 2134 is creating some type of stock market bubble in the mind of Fed and that's why they are looking for 10% correction this time, which is very healthy for a secular bull market. Fed will preferred to be in dovish mode in the near term as a 1% strong currency (USD), which is equivalent to 0.25% rate hike, has already happened in the US economy. _*Technical Charts:*_ http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wuhYGjTTTZ0/Vdf8dk8b5qI/Dz0/wZBDBbyVj4s/s1600/S%2526P-21-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ipviSjXC4oc/Vdf8gK-xe_I/Dz8/lG2dmVsIaF8/s1600/S%2526P-FIBB-21-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2k2yU7l9eUU/Vdf8huXtyJI/D0E/5-6rxSZYy_I/s1600/S%2526P-WK-21-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I5uXBs9BTL8/Vdf8kwsJm4I/D0M/viOFBAxBRRI/s1600/S%2526P-TL-LT-21-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qzVREXBWK1s/Vdf8memTH2I/D0U/x3zJcLQxaLs/s1600/S%2526P-Pattern-21-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dRuGZl0n1DE/Vdf8o9POyHI/D0c/UM6szKGUw0o/s1600/S%2526P-TL-LT-21-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other
[www.niftyviews.com:23177] Fwd: Yes Bank: Payment Bank License, NPA RBS Portfolio Acquisition Woes May Be Over Done--680-655 Might Be Proved As Strong Demand Zone For TGT Of 900 In Near Term
Forwarded Message Subject: Yes Bank: Payment Bank License, NPA RBS Portfolio Acquisition Woes May Be Over Done--680-655 Might Be Proved As Strong Demand Zone For TGT Of 900 In Near Term Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 20:55:13 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical View:*_ Looking at the chart, Yes Bank (CMP:692) has strong support zone of 680-655 and sustained below 645-625-604 590-570-545-520 might be the target in the near term (worst bear case probability). On the brighter side, sustaining above 680, immediate to short term target will be 702-710 730-740-757-782. Only consecutive closing above 782, it may target 795-805-821-836-850 in the mid term. In the long term, sustaining above 850, Yes Bank may also scale 885-907 zone and consecutive closing above that 1250 area might be the target by FY:17-18 (bullish case scenario). _*Trading Levels (Positional):*_ SL/5FROM SLR Yes Bk CMP 692 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 670 702-710* 730-740 757-782* 795-805 821-836 850-885 898-907 655 Weak655 645*625 604 590*570 545 520 670 _*Rationale:*_ _* *_ Yes bank suffered significant correction for the last few days (around 19% against Nifty correction of 5%) and under performed the broader market clearly. This may be due to concern of payment banks license to certain strong corporate groups which may increase competition and affect overall operating margin and CASA ratio. Yes bank traditionally offer relatively higher rate of interest on certain category of savings account. But we have to keep in mind that it caters to mainly well to do types of clients (HNI/Semi HNI) and for them, full and convenient banking facility is more important, which the new payment banks may not offer as of now. Being a new generation and tech savvy bank, a new small payment bank can't be its competitor overnight. The bank is active in wealth advisory and planning to launch mutual funds business either in an organic or inorganic way. Another issue was that there was a market report about both Yes Indusind Bank that they are eyeing RBS's India portfolio. Although the same was termed as pure speculative by Yes Bank at this early stage, the market might be taking it as negative as the the likely acquisition will make the balance sheet more stretched for the Yes Bank. If the deal really materialize in future, then the fine print of the same will decide the next course of movement in its scrip. The other issue may be the old one and that is UBS downgrade in July of Yes Bank, citing vulnerability of significant loan exposure to certain stressed corporate groups, which may default in the days ahead (NPL/NPA). But, that issue too may be termed as blown out of proportion and the management clarified that the bank has indeed sanctioned the credit line to some of the corporate groups which are stressed now, but the bank did not disburse the full credit line as sanctioned and working closely on the issue case by case basis. Again, this practice is quite normal in banking industry and as par BOA-ML Macquarie all was well with Yes Bank. Q1FY16 result was also above street expectations amid higher net interest income, operating margin and higher other income aided by banking transaction fees, cross sale of third party products (Life Insurance), wealth management products etc. But its asset quality has weakened and provisions for bad loans shot up with significant surge in NPA, which under performed the market estimates. Going ahead, the management is confident of its full year guidance for FY16 and sees growth in retail/SME banking, specially in CV finance. Due to expected overall economic recovery in H2FY16, corporate business may also see sequential higher growth and the overall banking industry, including Yes Bank may be the major beneficiary of that. To support growth and future expansions, Yes Bank is planning to raise around Rs.750 cr in Q2FY16 and $1 billion by ADR or QIP route within FY16. The bank is also fast expanding domestically by opening new branches and also in Gulf countries for potential NRI deposits. But the ongoing litigation between Kapoor families (promoter of Yes Bank) need to be settled at the earliest, as although this issue will not affect the performance of Yes Bank materially, the market may not like any uncertainty in its
[www.niftyviews.com:23129] Fwd: SBI:Q1 Result Was In Line With Street Estimates--Only Sustaining Above 275 Will Target 295-305-345 And 255-248 May Be A Good Buying Zone; Govt's PSB Initiative May Help
Forwarded Message Subject: SBI:Q1 Result Was In Line With Street Estimates--Only Sustaining Above 275 Will Target 295-305-345 And 255-248 May Be A Good Buying Zone; Govt's PSB Initiative May Help Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 09:45:59 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ SBI (CMP:268) has to break sustain over 271-275 for an immediate target of 280-285 290-295. Only consecutive closing above 295, it may scale up to 305-336-345 395 in the medium to long term (bullish case scenario). On the downside, inability to sustain over 275, SBI may face moderate selling pressure and below 271, it may fall to 266-260-255 zone immediately and sustaining below that 248 might be the target in the short term. Only consecutive closing below 248, SBI might fall further 240-235-229-223-220 210-200 zone in the near term (worst bear case probability). _*Technical Trading Levels: (Positional)*_ SL/2FROM SLR SBINCMP 268 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 275 280-285 290-295* 300-305 310-315 320-326 336 345 271 Weak271 266-260 255*248*240 235-229 223-220 210-200 275 _*Some Inputs:*_ Q1FY16 result of SBI was by large in line with street estimates (NP better than estimates, but slight rise in NPA NII was below estimates and that drags the stock down). Going forward, market will keenly watch set of numbers over the next few quarters and till then it may be range bound within 248-295 zone. Various initiatives announced by the Govt on last Friday late in the evening (after market hours) may help all the PSB(s) today including SBI (although discounted by some extent already as there was market talk about this). _*Techno Funda Valuation By BG Metrics: (Estimates)*_ Current median valuation: 255 Projected fair valuation: 285-320-360 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA SBIN22.81 213.31 10.34 253.19 252.72 252.95 271.79 270.79 SBIN28.35 227.01 10.34 282.26 281.74 282.00 271.79 270.79 SBIN36.25 261.05 10.34 319.18 318.59 318.88 271.79 270.79 SBIN45.55 301.5 10.34 357.78 357.13 357.45 271.79 270. _*Technical Charts:*_ http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Xd7sRWd2hrA/VdFYjd0HjtI/DxQ/LNe1cbiGuUk/s1600/SBI-14-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aE2jVOraB2w/VdFYmNTTHaI/DxY/f-BYJlAmccw/s1600/SBI-FIBB-14-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EnaoZ8AJhhc/VdFYobeqVTI/Dxg/w9zjy-Bx6_g/s1600/SBI-WK-14-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D1sXDVRoQbo/VdFYqQ_2vZI/Dxo/jfR4xmjt6jI/s1600/SBI-TL-14-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BVnUDEbn7CU/VdFYs5xGPGI/Dxw/YSz40rc28-A/s1600/SBI-TL-MT-14-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PI5iuidAGGw/VdFYvgGtu-I/Dx4/n7G2riCfNdI/s1600/SBI-PATTERN-14-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23075] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut (Aug): Some Strength Only Abv 19150 for 19300-500, Otherwiese, Expect 18200 Again--Hawkish RBI Parliament Logjam May Drag
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty Fut (Aug): Some Strength Only Abv 19150 for 19300-500, Otherwiese, Expect 18200 Again--Hawkish RBI Parliament Logjam May Drag Date: Tue, 04 Aug 2015 08:53:36 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ BNF (LTP: 18936) has to sustain over 19150 at least, for an immediate target of 19300-19500*. Only consecutive closing above 19500, BNF may target 19700-20120-20720 area in the near term (Bullish Case Scenario). On the flip side, inability to sustain above 19150, might result selling and we may see BNF drifting towards 18808-18648* zone. Sustain below 18648, BNF may further fall to 18507-18191-18000 territory by next few trading sessions (Bear Case Scenario). _*Technical Trading Levels(Positional):*_ BNF-Aug LTP 18936 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 19150 19300* 19500* 19700 19900 20120 19100 Weak19100 19027 18866-0818648* 18507 18340 18191 19150 _*Some News Inputs:*_ BNF, specially PSU banks surged to 10 day high amid Govt's recapitalization plan and upgrade of PSU Banks stocks by CLSA. Over the years, PSBS account of stressed assets has grown sequentially and now stands around Rs.4 lk cr because of visible slowdown in major sectors like steel/metals, cement, power, infrastructure and also agriculture. But, there is a slight glimmer of hope in the latest quarterly earnings of major 5 PSBS so far as par CLSA and formation of new NPA is gradually moderating. In other words, worst may be over as far formation of new stressed assets for PSBS is concerned. But again, market will keenly watch forthcoming Q1 result of SBI, which may be a real proxy for corporate/SME India's debt profile, being the largest lender of our country. Although there is some positive news on Land Bill as NDA is now ready to pass the UPA version of it by rolling back its own critical amendments, market may spooked by growing parliamentary logjams amid yesterday's suspension of 25 INC MP(s). Also, the land bill is being diluted, investors may find it hard to comply and there is also fear of GST bill's fate hanging in doldrums, market might drag after RBI event today. Clearly, NDA (Govt) gas to believe in its own reform agenda. RBI meet is most likely to be a non-event today, but market will keenly watch RBI's tone. Any unwanted hawkish tone by RBI (because of poor July monsoon consequent jump in some food articles/inflation probability and Fed lift off phobia) might translate huge selling in BNF. On the other side, any cut in CRR/SLR/MSF to boost liquidity in banks (specially PSBS) may ignite the market. RBI will cut most probably in Oct'15 for a Dewali Gift for us. Also, any step towards diminishing veto power of RBI Gov by the Govt may be viewed as negative by the FII(s) as too weak INR will hurt bond yields severely and we may see massive selling both in our bond stock markets. But the fact is that India is now the only large economy in the world to have such high rate of bank interest years after years and that is aiding the overall economic slowdown here. Govt must think to formulate some different policy to tackle inflation, specially food wage. As par text book, RBI Gov is right as the World's fastest growing economy (at least theoretically ??) does not need rate cut any more, but again text book economy and real economy is quite different. And last of all, don't forget Greece---its still there and a long way to go. _*Techno Funda Valuation Of Nifty By BG Metrics (Modified):*_ Current median valuation: 7850 (Ideal Buying Zone) Projected fair valuation: 8700-9400-10350 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA CNXNIFTY365 244020 7766.50 7867.60 7817.05 8262.82 8479.34 CNXNIFTY450 270020 8623.54 8735.79 8679.66 8262.82 8479.34 CNXNIFTY525 300020 9314.48 9435.73 9375.11 8262.82 8479.34 CNXNIFTY635 335020 10243.9210377.26 10310.598262.82 8479.34 _*Technical Charts:*_ http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DUoBuXLDAys/VcApkxZCf-I/DqM/JLBocT9GzRI/s1600/BNF-03-08-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GiVwCrC-GxY/VcApnJViqtI/DqU
[www.niftyviews.com:23035] Fwd: IRB Infra : Above 256-262 Could Fly To 290-315---Expected Infra Mega Road Projects Push By Govt May Help
Forwarded Message Subject: IRB Infra : Above 256-262 Could Fly To 290-315---Expected Infra Mega Road Projects Push By Govt May Help Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 09:16:20 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ IRB (CMP: 249) has immediate support of around 242-238 233-226 zone. Sustain below 226, it may further fall to 220-210 area and consecutive closing below that, it could crash to 205-197-184 160 territory in the worst bear case scenario. On the upside, sustaining above 242, immediate target may be 256 and consecutive closing above that 270-276 might be the target in short term, In the mid term term, only sustaining above 276, IRB may scale up to 290-300-315 area and consecutive closing above that 370 might be the target in the long term under bull case scenario (FY:16-18). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_ SL/2FROM SLR IRB CMP 249 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 238 242*256-262*270 276 290 300 315 233 Weak233 226 220 210*205 197 184 160 238 _*Stock Analysis Some Useful Inputs:*_ Yesterday IRB gave a technical break out (242) amid some positive news flow that one of its subsidiary has raised debt of Rs.1400 cr to execute a mega road project awarded by NHAI (total cost of the project is around Rs.2290 cr as of now). The concession period for the project is 27 years. Q4FY15 consolidated result/EPS of IRB was also above street estimates and looking ahead, Govt's massive push for infrastructure, mega road projects (@1 km in the current FY), Smart City theme may revive this sector by H2FY16 (as widely expected). Road, being the vital infra life line in Modinomics Shinning India, we may see actual progress of work in various stalled projects and also significant FDI in this sector in the coming days. Presently, our respected road minister (who is dedicated his life to mega high way projects) has assured the PMO to construct high ways @17-18 km/day and projected target is above 20 km/day by FY:16-17. Certainly, under this circumstances, IRB may be one of the beneficiary of the expected push for mega road projects along with some other competitors like LT. But, there are some serious risks in IRB, as CBI is investigating its Chairman in a 2012 case of murder of a RTI activist (who had exposed irregularities involving forged documents in a township project by IRB). This is as par old report need to be verified further about the status of the case as of now. _*Techno Funda Valuation As Par BG Metrics (Modified):*_ Current Median Valuation: 300 Projected Fair Valuation: 330-350-385 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA IRB 15.45 117.31 24.6298.54 302.84 300.69 234.5 241.3 IRB 18.62 129.05 24.6327.74 332.46 330.10 234.5 241.3 IRB 20.74 142.15 24.6345.89 350.87 348.38 234.5 241.3 IRB 25.1156.55 24.6380.52 386.00 383.26 234.5 241.3 _*Technical Charts:*_ http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rvyR4rsXlJ0/VbrsXx8zAlI/DnA/bNZlK_7olXA/s1600/IRB-30-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Lwxs0kiL1OU/VbrsbbeqzlI/DnI/ZjSXL-rAqJo/s1600/IRB-FIBB-30-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wMstwwqiZtQ/VbrsdLCB3DI/DnQ/o54Et-48KdI/s1600/IRB-WK-30-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xr6ED4Zwf-U/VbrsenyCRtI/DnY/fgKRNz-ttQE/s1600/IRB-TL-30-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MopxB0DVPKA/VbrsgesYtSI/Dng/O-Ey2rjlCMA/s1600/IRB-PATTERN-30-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t-_z4Dj7OWM/VbrskFoFyrI/Dno/ZX-ROV6O-4A/s1600/IRB-TL-LT-30-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee
[www.niftyviews.com:23028] Fwd: Bharti Airtel:Fine Tuning Its Africa Operations--Blw 405-400 May Fall To 390-370 Zone, Where It Could Find Good Buying Support For A TGT Of 455
Forwarded Message Subject: Bharti Airtel:Fine Tuning Its Africa Operations--Blw 405-400 May Fall To 390-370 Zone, Where It Could Find Good Buying Support For A TGT Of 455 Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015 09:07:23 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Technically, Bharti (CMP:410) has immediate support of 405-400 zone and sustain below that it could fall to 390-380-370 area. Consecutive closing below 370*, it may further fall to 359-350-338* 326-317-310-290-279 territory in the worst bear case scenario. On the upside, sustain above 405, Bharti may immediately target 412-419-426. Only consecutive closing above 426-430, it may scale 438-443-455 in near term. In the mid to long term, sustaining above 455, Bharti could target 465-475-485 500-510-535 565-600 under bullish case scenario (FY:16-18). Bottom Line:Technical Trading Levels (Positional) SL/5FROM SLR BHARTI CMP 410 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 405 412-419 426-430* 438-443 452-455* 465-475 485-490 500-535 400 Weak400 390 380 370*359-350 338*326 317-279 405 Bharti is presently deleveraging (selling exiting) its unprofitable African business except better markets like in Kenya and Nigeria to reduce its huge balance sheet debt of around Rs.62200 Cr. The company will concentrate more now on India (specially in 3G/4G) as our country has now better telecom regulatory environment, comparatively less competition than few years ago due to growing consolidation huge cost of operations (where only players having deep pocket could survive in future) and stable telecom tariff. Also there will be huge opportunity in data market as India is now world's fastest growing smart phone market and also there will be Digital India initiatives. Now-a-days, people are increasingly talking less over mobile and OTT IM like WA is the preferred way for seamless communications, which is consuming more data. But some headwinds might come from R-JIO in terms of tariff market share etc in future. As par BG metrics, current median valuation of Bharti Airtel may be around 445 and its projected fair valuation might be around 475-530-600 (FY:16-18 On standalone basis). SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA BHARTIARTL 33.02 166.93 14.29 430.46 449.68 440.07 392.7 428.54 BHARTIARTL 38.05 190.3 14.29 462.09 482.71 472.40 392.7 428.54 BHARTIARTL 47.5217 14.29 516.29 539.33 527.81 392.7 428.54 BHARTIARTL 59.5250 14.29 577.84 603.63 590.73 392.7 428.54 To be continued for some more useful inputs http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qW62OdADj7I/VbhIb0KxQvI/Dk4/Cw-lXpGQlpU/s1600/BHARTI-28-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4qTdy-3dcQA/VbhIdsid3uI/DlA/5j2HwNKY3uI/s1600/BHARTI-FIBB-28-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8DpiiHP2bxI/VbhIfTSPKBI/DlI/0uWzF6GIF68/s1600/BHARTI-WK-28-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nU4xd6kJhKw/VbhIhy2o4eI/DlQ/WySrtjbUMBw/s1600/BHARTI-TL-28-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oFYOGRXWBXA/VbhIjm-TRLI/DlY/XYXRFasV4YQ/s1600/BHARTI-PATTERN-28-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_8NcJUMaBbY/VbhIlhlynbI/Dlg/yKU3cBERTyc/s1600/BHARTI-PATTERN-MT-28-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23053] whatsapp group
WA: 9593761706 From My Lava On Aug 3, 2015 4:22 PM, Vikas Tulsyan visionahe...@gmail.com wrote: Please add me my no. Is 9830794956 On 03-Aug-2015 4:13 pm, Nitin Aggarwal nitinagarwal...@gmail.com wrote: Plz add me also to grp: +91-9810168658 On 3 Aug 2015 13:12, Bhaskarguy bhaskar...@gmail.com wrote: pls add me to whatsapp group : +91 7794894755 On Tue, Jul 28, 2015 at 7:00 AM, Rajiv Handa rhaposit...@gmail.com wrote: FYI -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23056] whatsapp group
Some one should take the initiative create the NV gr, I think as an admin, Vinayak is the right choice, he is also a great analyst From My Lava On Aug 3, 2015 5:37 PM, Ram Prakash rpd...@gmail.com wrote: Please add me 9810870706 Ram Prakash On Mon, Aug 3, 2015 at 4:48 PM, Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com wrote: WA: 9593761706 From My Lava On Aug 3, 2015 4:22 PM, Vikas Tulsyan visionahe...@gmail.com wrote: Please add me my no. Is 9830794956 On 03-Aug-2015 4:13 pm, Nitin Aggarwal nitinagarwal...@gmail.com wrote: Plz add me also to grp: +91-9810168658 On 3 Aug 2015 13:12, Bhaskarguy bhaskar...@gmail.com wrote: pls add me to whatsapp group : +91 7794894755 On Tue, Jul 28, 2015 at 7:00 AM, Rajiv Handa rhaposit...@gmail.com wrote: FYI -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold
[www.niftyviews.com:23118] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Aug): 18000-17900 Is Now Crucial For Freedom To Fly Towards 19280 Zone Again--Aug'30 GST, MAT Rate Cut Hope May Help
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Aug): 18000-17900 Is Now Crucial For Freedom To Fly Towards 19280 Zone Again--Aug'30 GST, MAT Rate Cut Hope May Help Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 09:08:40 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ For BNF (LTP:18320), good support zone is now around 18000-17950 and sustain below that it may fall up to 17690-17595-17492-17285-17119 zone in the near future (bear case probability). On the ascend, sustaining above 17950, immediate target will be 18215-18410-18581. Only consecutive closing above 18581, BNF might target 18626-18783-18840-19050 area sustaining above that 19129-19194-19280 should be the target in the near term (bullish case probability). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional)*_ BNF-Aug LTP 18320 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 17950 18215-410 18581-626* 18783-840 19050-129 19194-280 17950 Weak17900 17690 17595* 17492 17285 17119 18000 _*Some Rationale:*_ As par reports and various market talks, Govt may reconvene a short parliament session on by Aug'30 to pass the GST bill. As now the Cong basically is in corner for its faulty stance on Lalit Gate and disruptions of parliament proceedings, its under huge pressure from all sides and might not pose so much problem in the passage of the GST bill to recover its lost image. There are also some hope that Shah panel report of MAT will be published officially and Govt will take a stand partially for the FPI(s) in the SC also in this hour of crisis and there is high probability that RBI may act this time. Globally, China choose to be in the middle path of Yuan devaluation after nearly 4.5% crash in the Yuan against the market expectation of 10%. But again, as par some estimates, 10% Yuan devaluation will affect only 0.01% growth in US, but the bigger concern might be in the over all commodity prices depression, disinflation and loosing of export advantage by some of the countries,like Germany. The current situation is also implying less probability for Sep or even Dec'15 Fed rate hike. For us, excessive Yuan devaluation means more cheap Chinese exports, specially steel and cross currency headwinds for some companies like ADAG etc who took substantial loan in Yuan and then converted it in USD. _*Technical Charts:*_ http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hC3aND_7epk/Vc1gWogdMFI/DwM/lhQaFcvGT2w/s1600/BNF-12-08-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gcW6Mo7t1eA/Vc1gY6FIPJI/DwU/Uyt6DZDR2rM/s1600/BNF-FIBB-12-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Sgah75R1OSQ/Vc1gbjlaujI/Dwc/D4EFkhQSeUU/s1600/BNF-WK-12-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7z1uyGlwXkU/Vc1geCnROzI/Dwk/k8WX5xLPPAA/s1600/BNF-TL-12-08-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TxLV9cy-nvk/Vc1gjxnIujI/Dws/_T9GD_4IlPw/s1600/BNF-TL-MT-12-08-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gA8vLwm_pMI/Vc1gmTznz6I/Dw0/0YppD-lBgHI/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-12-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23108] Fwd: Wockhardt: Q1 Result Abv Estimates---Sustaining Above 1625 TGT May Be 1800-2000-2250--But Has To Be US/UK Compliant
Forwarded Message Subject: Wockhardt: Q1 Result Abv Estimates---Sustaining Above 1625 TGT May Be 1800-2000-2250--But Has To Be US/UK Compliant Date: Tue, 11 Aug 2015 09:12:10 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis:*_ Looking at the chart, Wockhardt (CMP:1652) has to sustain above 1625-1640 for an immediate to short term target of 1660-1685-1705-1726 1765. Only consecutive closing above 1765, it may target 1815-1860-1925-2000 2166-2200-2250 in the mid to long term (bullish case scenario). On the flip side, inability to sustain above 1625 may drag it to 1610-1599 and sustaining below that it may further fall to 1585-1562-1549-1535-1518-1503 zone. Consecutive closing below 1503, it may further crash to 1485-1450-1401-1386 zone in the near term ( bear case scenario). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_ SL/10 FROM SLR WOCKPHM CMP 1652 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 1625 1640-60*16851705-26*1765181518601925-2000 1610 Weak1610 1599-85*1562-49 1535-18 1503* 14851450 1401-1385 1625 _*Some Inputs:*_ Q1FY16 result of Wockhardt is by large above street estimates due to low base effect and better domestic operations but going forward it has to be compliant with US/UK FDA regulatory environment, which may be quite challenging. So, it will be a high risk play in Wockhardt. _*Techno Funda Valuation As Par BG Metrics(Modified):*_ Current median valuation : 1385 Projected fair valuations: 1700-1975-2250 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA WOCKPHARMA 36.65 333.79 36.4 1329.44 1443.82 1386.63 1324.84 1562.62 WOCKPHARMA 54.45 382.25 36.4 1620.43 1759.85 1690.14 1324.84 1562.62 WOCKPHARMA 73.85 437.75 36.4 1887.16 2049.52 1968.34 1324.84 1562.62 WOCKPHARMA 96.5501.25 36.42157.23 2342.83 2250.03 1324.84 1562.62 _*Technical Charts:*_ http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TrJ6wzrhwVk/VclsRt62w_I/Dtc/BsWWArNUTbs/s1600/WOCK-10-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S-10ET6Fwvw/VclsT1yNJkI/Dtk/zxDdj7Umw6Q/s1600/WOCK-FIBB-10-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FvtzV3wNvw4/VclsVolMPJI/Dts/2xx4DzWTC90/s1600/WOCK-WK-10-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KqfRLkjO54w/VclsXASFecI/Dt0/2DEt08RlMFU/s1600/WOCK-TL-10-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lERqTjtKSUw/Vclsapf65fI/Dt8/t0YoNSDCovM/s1600/WOCK-PATTERN-10-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WKVN4bBvfNc/VclseGpYj9I/DuE/bs87RVEbjQU/s1600/WOCK-TL-RSI-10-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh NCFM-TA Certified (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23111] Fwd: GST: Could Be A Game Changing Event For India---Exide May Be One Of The Beneficiary
Forwarded Message Subject: GST: Could Be A Game Changing Event For India---Exide May Be One Of The Beneficiary Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2015 08:36:52 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; After a long long delay of around 15 years (after first planned by the then NDA govt in 2000 and first introduced in Parliament in the year 2007-08), there is a high probability that GST bill may be passed in our RS by today/tomorrow amid various political permutations combinations with non-stop drama. Most probably some opposition parties will walk out in protest against so called Lalit Modi fiasco Vypar Scam paving the way for an abstain in RS voting (indirect support) with some oppositions will likely prefer to vote in favour directly. This will make some opposition parties to be alive politically outside parliament also. The GST is itself a game changer if implemented all over the India in the right form and as par various calculations, GST will itself add around 1.5-2% to our current GDP of around $2 trillion by FY18, because it will increase exports, domestic sales and create more employment and overall growth. GST is scheduled to be implemented wef FY16 onwards. We now currently pay around 25-30% on an average on various goods services which may be clubbed into a single revenue neutral GST rate of around 20% in the days ahead. Apart from one time short term benefit of reduced tax burden (which will be ultimately passed to the consumers due to competition), in the long run both manufacturers consumers will gain because of reduced tax burden in inputs and outputs, sales will increase. Also, due to overall higher tax revenues (about 1% of our GDP), India's fiscal deficit will improve too. As par various analysts following sectors and scrips may benefit immensely from the implementation of GST: (Source:ET Others) 1. Ceramic Tiles: Like Kajaria Ceramics 2. Consumer Durables: Like Bajaj Electriacls, Havells, TTK Prestige 3. FMCG/Packaged Foods: Like Britannia, Dabur, ITC, Jub Foods, Marico 4. Apparel: Page, Raymonds 5. Batteries: Exide, Amara Raja 6. Logistics: Gati, Patel Logistics 7. Auto: Like MM, TATA Motors 8. Cement Steel: ACC, Tata Steel etc But some of the stocks has already rallied for the expected event and may see profit booking once GST passage is announced (like Buy in rumour and sell after news)---so we need to check the technical of the above stocks for any further significant upside or not as ultimately time price of a stock is the ultimate. *Exide is one of the stock, that may be benefited by GST:* *Exide: 159 (CMP): Buy Around 156; It May Fly To 187-205 (Only Sustaining Above 162)* Technically, 156 is a good support zone for Exide and consecutive closing above 162, it may scale up to 187-200 in the near term. For short term trader, SL could be placed below 153. On the flip side, sustaining below 153, Exide could fall up to 141-130 area, where it may be further accumulated for portfolio investment purpose. Recent Q1FY16 result was below market expectations amid lower sales in inverter/automotive/industrial battery sales and higher input costs taxes.The company also slashed the dealer incentive and increased the dealer networks, which ultimately proved costly. Going ahead, the company is taking necessary corrective steps for its marketing strategy and it sees better demand for automotive industrial segment due to expected growth in 4W segment (for 7-th Pay Commission) and expected overall economic recovery in H2FY16. Although, there is subdued demand for household inverter battery in big cities large towns due to comparatively better power conditions (less load shedding/power cut due to lack of demand from industrial sector---currently power is in excess supply than demand in India and there is power back up system in most of the modern city housing society), in small towns and stand alone houses, inverter is still in demand due to frequent power cuts amid poor distribution networks of SEB(s). As par BG metrics of techno funda valuation model, current median value of Exide may be around 175 and projected fair valuations are 195-215-235 (FY:16-18). SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA EXIDEIND6.0747.44 31.31 174.76 170.53 172.65 160.7 153.02 EXIDEIND7.5 51.75 31.31 194.26 189.56 191.91 160.7 153.02 EXIDEIND8.9 56.45 31.31 211.61 206.50 209.05 160.7 153.02 EXIDEIND10.75 61.75 31.31 232.57 226.94 229.76 160.7 153.02 _*Technical Charts ET IMAGE FOR GST BENEFICIARY LIST:*_ http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yUyEIsQ0NeE/Vcq04ZynReI/Duc/1LxxSllBdBI/s1600/EXIDE-10-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vyuB2kw5F_A/Vcq056w7z0I/Duk/qmn2MV49l9Y/s1600/EXIDE-FIBB-10-08-2015.png http://1
[www.niftyviews.com:23106] Fwd: Kotak Bank: Q1FY16 Result Is In Line With Merged Estimates---Only Sustaining Abv 715-720 TGT May Be 745-800-850, Otherwise 680-616-572 Might Be On The Card
Forwarded Message Subject: Kotak Bank: Q1FY16 Result Is In Line With Merged Estimates---Only Sustaining Abv 715-720 TGT May Be 745-800-850, Otherwise 680-616-572 Might Be On The Card Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2015 08:49:57 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis (Time Price):*_ KMB (CMP:705) has to sustain at least over 715-720 zone for an immediate to short term target of 737-745 area. Only consecutive closing above 745, it may scale 800-850 in the near term (bullish case scenario). On the downside, inability to sustain above 715, might result selling in KMB and it may fall to 695-680 immediately. Only consecutive closing below 680, it may further fall to 658-645 and sustaining below that 628-616 595-572 might be on the card in the near term (worst bear case scenario). _*Technical Trading Levels(Positional):*_ SL/5FROM SLR KOTAKBK CMP 705 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 720 737 745*759 781 800 811 828-850 715 Weak715 695 680*658 645*628 616 595-572 720 _*Some Inputs:*_ Q1 result of KMB is by large in line with street estimates as merged entity (with ING). Although NP declined by almost 56% to Rs.190 cr against Rs.430 cr (YOY- Standalone), there is one time various integration costs of nearly Rs.432 cr due to merger with ING Vysya Bank. If we do not consider this one time exceptional cost, the bottom line should be Rs.622 cr (190+432). Similarly restructured assets had grown manifold because of ING contribution of around 65% of total stressed assets. Consolidated NP also declined by around 26% to Rs.517 cr (including all the other subsidiaries) and NIM (Q1) also fall drastically to 4.29% from 5%, while on brighter side, NII increased by 43% (consolidated) 60% (standalone-YOY). Analysts are expecting an average NII of around 4.2% for the next five years for the merged entity (KMB+ING). The cost to income ratio of the merged entity was higher than street estimates of 65% in Q1. The KMB management is looking to reduce it to near 50% by 2016-17, while analysts are skeptical about it and are expecting a figure of around 56%-50% in FY17-FY18. Looking ahead, the company is expecting an incremental credit costs in the remaining nine months for around 50 bps due to transfer of NPA/stressed assets from ING to Kotak loan book and also expecting normalization after FY16. Most of the stressed assets from ING are of corporate NPA(s) and the KMB is persuading active loan recovery through various resolutions CDR. As on June'15, the total loan book of the merged entity stands around Rs.1.03 lakh cr, which is an increase of over 80% due to ING merger and the management is expecting a steady growth of 15-20% in it in the days ahead. The management expects that the total integration process/costs will be over by FY16 by FY17, we should see fully normalised merged entity and operations. They will also gradually expand branches from the present strength of combined 1260 branches 1942 ATM(s). With the merger of ING, there will be significant increase of presence for the KMB in southern India, which may be termed as growth engine of Shinning India. Due to higher rate of interest of SB A/C offered by Kotak, we may see a sequential higher deposits for ING customers also and the average revenue per branch of KMB will be higher too. In Q1, loans to provision ratio is around 0.8% against Kotak's own historical ratio of 0.3%. Analysts are projecting an average ratio of 0.6% for the next five years. Going ahead, KMB has to outperform this key metric for further upside potential as par scrip price is concerned. *_Techno Funda Valuation As Par BG Metrics (Modified):_* Considering the average historical EPS of ING, which was around 33 and average industry PE of private banks (21.19) along with Kotak's own historical EPS, the valuations of KMB might be around: Current median valuation: 815 Projected fair valuations: 900-960-1060 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE KOTAKBANK 45.67 121.55 21.19 790.70 826.35 808.53 KOTAKBANK 55.6140.5 21.19 872.44 911.78 892.11 646.05 KOTAKBANK 63.55 161.65 21.19 932.73 974.78 953.76 646.05 KOTAKBANK 78.05 185.95 21.19
[www.niftyviews.com:23098] Fwd: Axis Bank: Q1 Result In Line With Estimates Except NPA--Next Upside Only Abv 590 For 615-655, Otherwise 550-505 Again
Forwarded Message Subject: Axis Bank: Q1 Result In Line With Estimates Except NPA--Next Upside Only Abv 590 For 615-655, Otherwise 550-505 Again Date: Wed, 05 Aug 2015 09:41:21 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; _*Technical Analysis (Time Price Action):*_ Axis Bank (CMP:580) has to sustain at least over 585-590 for an immediate to short term target of 600-605 615-625*. Sustaining above 625, it may target 635-645-655 in the medium term and only consecutive closing above 655*, Axis Bank might scale 700-750 785-800 zone (FY:16-18 under bullish case scenario). On the flip side, failure to sustain above 590, Axis Bank may face some selling pressure and might fall towards 571-567 561-550. Sustaining below 550, it may further fall to 537-526-513-505 488-480 territory in the near term (bear case scenario). _*Technical Trading Levels (Positional):*_ SL/5FROM SLR AXIS BK CMP 580 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 590 605 615 625*635 645 655* 685-700 585 Weak585 567 561 550*537 526 513 505-480 590 _*Some News Inputs:*_ Q1FY16 result of Axis Bank was in line with street estimates as far as top bottom lines are concerned. But bad loans (stressed assets/NPA) surged unexpectedly by nearly three times (YOY) and nearly two times from last QTR (Q4FY15). This shows bad loans can continue to hunt Indian Banking system for some time to come considering an efficient bank like Axis's growing NPA woes. Looking ahead, widespread economic recovery is being expected by many analysts in H2FY16 and if that happens in reality, stressed assets of Indian Banking system should decline sequentially and Axis Bank might be also one of the beneficiary of the same. Also, yesterday's concall with RBI Gov is some what in dovish line a rate cut in Sep'15 (out of policy meet) can;t be ruled out. Although there are many caveats and RBI may act in Sep, only Fed began hiking. Otherwise, Fed will wait for Dec and RBI may cut only in Oct by 0.25% to wait for Fed action in Dec. _*Techno Funda Valuation As Par BG Metrics (Modified):*_ Current median valuation: 615 Projected fair valuation: 660-730-800 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA AXISBANK32.28 188.07 21.19 600.13 627.57 613.85 526.53 575.79 AXISBANK37.05 218.25 21.19 642.94 672.34 657.64 526.53 575.79 AXISBANK45.21 253.25 21.19 710.22 742.70 726.46 526.53 575.79 AXISBANK54.15 293.95 21.19 777.28 812.82 795.05 526.53 575.79 _*Technical Charts:*_ http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Asdl8JbQlP4/VcGGhwTTcXI/DrM/h2DXGbLYO4g/s1600/AXIS-04-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9e6xLtDa5k0/VcGGjIbYAdI/DrU/hxgyTZPb-2E/s1600/AXIS-FIBB-04-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-csB6itZBIQU/VcGGnjlmduI/Drg/7VmB5cHVnvs/s1600/AXIS-WK-04-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9M8WLqed9ZA/VcGGqi_0f-I/Drs/YWLQibbBTmM/s1600/AXIS-PATTERN-04-08-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hLEIHKLKIyw/VcGGs2IVjCI/Dr0/QqYwIuJcKXc/s1600/AXIS-PATTERN-ST-04-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23000] Fwd: Wipro: Q1 Result Largely In Line/Above Estimates With Resonable Guidance--May Fly To 680-710 Only Abv 600-622 In Nr. Term
Forwarded Message Subject: Wipro: Q1 Result Largely In Line/Above Estimates With Resonable Guidance--May Fly To 680-710 Only Abv 600-622 In Nr. Term Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2015 08:49:56 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Technically, for Wipro (CMP:589) immediate support zone is 580-568 562-553*. Sustaining below 553, it may fall to 548-541-536-530-512* 504-498-484-471-465 zone in the worst bear case scenario. On the upside, sustaining above 580, Wipro could target 592-600-622 immediately and further sustaining above that, it may further scale to 640-678 710 in the short to medium term. In the long term, only consecutive closing above 678-710 area, it may target 825-850 under bullish market conditions. In short, sustaining above 600-622, Wipro may fly to 680-710 or consecutive closing below 562-540, it could crashed to 500-484 zone in the near future (as Q2FY16 guidance given by the management is below Nascom's industry average growth). Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional) SL/5FROM SLR Wipro CMP 589 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 568 580 592 600*622*640 664 678-710 560 Weak560 553-548 541-536*530-512 504 498 484 471-465 568 Q1 result of Wipro published yesterday after market hours is largely in line/slightly above street estimates.But concern may be on soft guidance for Q2FY16 given by the management, which may be dubbed as below industry (Nascom) average growth. Purely on this factor, GS CLSA downgraded Wipro to 510 level today as they sees pricing margin pressure continues in the near term. But management of Wipro is very much optimistic about the future and hinted better times ahead. Its US arms makes around 18% of its revenue from energy (Oil Gas) sector. It sees calmer less volatile global oil prices in the days ahead to revive spending on IT outsourcing by its energy utility clients. With Crude oil price nearly bottoming out, $48-44 might be a good demand zone (considering the overall demand/supply dynamics viability of this sector), Wipro might be proved right. Looking ahead, Wipro's investments acquisitions of start ups innovations, automation digital technology (artificial intelligence) and big data management solutions may be the game changer to improve its appeal in the market. With stable situation in EU and improved North America, we may see better energy telecom revenue growth than market expectation in the next couple of quarters. Digital India theme and GST roll out all over India (software contract) may be helpful for all big IT companies and Wipro might be one of them in the days ahead. As par BG metrics, current median valuation of Wipro may be around 700 and its projected fair valuations might be around 725-765-835 under the current market trends (FY:16-18). SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA WIPRO 35.04 130.13 24.22 696.37 696.67 696.52 571.41 571.89 WIPRO 37.51 153.5 24.22 720.50 720.80 720.65 571.41 571.89 WIPRO 41.67 181.1 24.22 759.40 759.72 759.56 571.41 571.89 WIPRO 50.05 213.75 24.22 832.27 832.62 832.44 571.41 571.89 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rYcbDSqBZAY/VbGsBRgP1bI/Df0/f-Bq20__hvY/s1600/WIPRO-23-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1rIOV9C6CBI/VbGsEqBL9xI/DgE/dLkuLLo4904/s1600/WIPRO-WK-23-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JH1FTRRHFB4/VbGsG9EcARI/DgM/GOj7b-2ByRE/s1600/WIPRO-TL-23-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DGg7QPyOz_Q/VbGsI5UN5qI/DgU/4DDciaM_bAE/s1600/WIPRO-PATTERN-23-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z_Ip6VFBaV0/VbGsLeQy2mI/Dgc/gNpHSK3cbpI/s1600/WIPRO-TL-MT-23-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aQHBx2EARXE/VbGsDC_PRTI/Df8/nNF7WdsTMYQ/s1600/WIPRO-FIBB-23-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share
[www.niftyviews.com:23012] Fwd: Reliance Ind:Q1 Result Largely Abv Estimates, 1150 Only Abv 1070, Otherwise 920 Blw 1015 (Result Might Be Already Discounted)
Forwarded Message Subject: Reliance Ind:Q1 Result Largely Abv Estimates, 1150 Only Abv 1070, Otherwise 920 Blw 1015 (Result Might Be Already Discounted) Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 07:05:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Time price action suggests that RIL (CMP: 1025) has to sustain over 1030 for an immediate target of 1045-1055-1070. Only consecutive closing above 1070, it may target 1100-1115 1132-1150 in the near term. In the long term, only sustaining above 1150, RIL may scale up to 1450-1650 (FY:17-18) under the bullish case scenario. On the downside, immediate support is around 1015 zone and below that RIL may fall to 1002-990-983 immediately. Consecutive closing below 983, it could further fall to 964-948-939-920-910-894 zone in the near term. Sustaining below 894, RIL may be further crashed to 859-847 zone in the worst bear case scenario, Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional) SL/5FROM SLR RIL CMP 1025 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 1030104510551070* 1100111511321150 1015 Weak10151002990-983*964 948-939 920-910 894*859-847 568 Q1 result published on Friday evening is largely in line/above market expectations. But going by the time price action for the last few days for the scrip, technically, the result might be already discounted some long positions could unwind in the short term. Although on Y-O-Y basis, quarterly profit grow by around 12%, on a Q-O-Q basis, EPS declined by around 3% (against around 22% growth in previous QTR). In any way, the 12% Q1 growth is supported by its superb GRM of $10.4 (6 months high) against $8.7 $9.3 a year and a quarter ago. Although the revenue fall sharply this QTR amid slump in energy/crude prices, it seems that RIL's massive investments in its petrochem business is showing result in terms of margin (integrated hydrocarbon chain) high operating rates amid substantial increase in transportation fuel demand. Looking forward, RIL is confident of maintaining sequential growth in EBITDA in its core operations (Petrochem and EP) by leveraging the strength of its integrated value chain. The company will formally launch R-JIO-4G most probably on 28-th Dec'2015 (birth day of Dhirubhai Ambani) and the beta testing of the same will start shortly. Reliance retail is also showing healthy growth and is contributing in the bottom line of the company. But the main theme of RIL is now playing around its telecom operations, which might be far ahead of the reality as far as the scrip is concerned. At Q1, RIL has consolidated debt of around Rs.1.35 lakh cr against cash cash equivalents of around Rs.0.82 lakh cr, a significant portion of which (debt) belongs to R-JIO. RIL is planning to raise more debt to fund R-JIO apart from its internal accrual. RIL's deep pocket may also see some consolidation in telecom space, where only strong player could survive. Clearly, the telecom operations will stretch the balance sheet of RIL in the near term, while we could see visible result from R-JIO only after FY:17-18. Again, India fast becoming the world's largest growing smart phone market with massive scope in data service Digital India theme, R-JIO's 4G may be the game changer in the telecom space by next few years. But headwinds may come from single digit ROE of telecom space and 4G voice calling technology on LTE along with availability of smart, affordable compatible 4G devices for the masses. Shale gas business of the company is also facing various challenges and we may see more shale asset sale by RIL in the coming days, which will be positive for the scrip. Overall, RIL may be within a broad range of 920-1150 in the near term, until more clarity real result will come for R-JIO. As par BG metrics, current median valuation of RIL might be around 1100 and its projected fair valuation may be around 1160-1260-1360 under the present market parameters (FY:16-18). SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA RELIANCE72.79 614.91 17.02 1072.87 1126.37 1099.62 929.1 1024.07 RELIANCE81.03 842 17.02 1131.97 1188.41 1160.19 929.1 1024.07 RELIANCE95.6113517.02 1229.53 1290.84
[www.niftyviews.com:23015] Fwd: ICICI Bk: Ahead Of Q1 Result---TGT 370 Only Abv 325, Otherwise May Fall To 280-265
Forwarded Message Subject: ICICI Bk: Ahead Of Q1 Result---TGT 370 Only Abv 325, Otherwise May Fall To 280-265 Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 09:09:13 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Technically, ICICI (CMP: 301), has to sustain over 306 for an immediate target of 312-317 321-325-331. In the near term, only consecutive closing above 325-331 zone, it may target 340-344-351-356-362-370 zone and sustaining above that, 395-410-435 might be the target in mid to long term under bullish case scenario. On the downside, sustaining below 299, ICICI may fall to 293-288-284-279 area in the immediate to short term. Consecutive closing below 279, it could further fall to 265 and sustaining below that, 254-250-236-233 206-199-188 might be the target in worst bear case scenario. In brief, ICICI Bk might be in the broad range of 265-280-325*-340-370 in the near term. Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional) SL/3FROM SLR ICICI CMP 301 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 306 312-317 321-325* 331-340* 344-351 356-362 370-395 410-435 299 Weak 299 293-288 284-279* 265* 254-250 236-233 206-199 188-175 306 ICICI scrip was under pressure for the last few days broke key support level of 312 amid concern over debt exposoure (Rs.13000 cr approx) to bewildered JP group as CARE downgrades its (JP) debt profile. Also SBI IDBI has considerable exposoure to this group for around Rs.8000 6500 Cr. Some good news is that, most of these debt exposoure of JP Gr (debt nearly Rs.1 lk cr!! including JP power) has been backed by hard assets/some co-laterals unlike King Fisher. Thus, there may be some cash-flow mismatch, ultimate write downs might be lower. Still there will be great concern by the market for this debt laden JP certain other over leveraged groups as the whole banking industry is reeling (specially PSBS) under huge stressed assets of over Rs.4 lakh cr and going ahead, liquidity might be a concern, when real industrial credit demand expected to take off in H2FY16. As par BG metrics, current median valuation of ICICI Bk may be around 345 and projected fair valuations might be around 370-405-450 under the current market parameters (FY:16-18). SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA ICICIBANK 19.25 126.19 19.77 345.69 345.09 345.39 314 312.92 ICICIBANK 22.12 138.2 19.77 370.56 369.92 370.24 314 312.92 ICICIBANK 26.34 151.35 19.77 404.37 403.67 404.02 314 312.92 ICICIBANK 31.35 165.75 19.77 441.15 440.39 440.77 314 312.9 http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WAPas4dqLV8/VbWmBTQWsGI/DiA/1klu1V4Sytw/s1600/ICICI-24-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xizHR9nTPU4/VbWmEwJ885I/DiI/C-9MbCl9wgs/s1600/ICICI-FIBB-24-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vVLMIArlL1I/VbWmG4HUyGI/DiQ/3PhPeSJJ6CA/s1600/ICICI-WK-24-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MIXEln7oQpU/VbWmIuL9s5I/DiY/t8B4Xhh-XC8/s1600/ICICI-TL-24-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-v2Y7ZL-Sr7w/VbWmKXSUJtI/Dig/U-_X_n9YR8Y/s1600/ICICI-PATTERN-24-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Tzzos0ETvnE/VbWmNkuRkSI/Dio/l-cMv2_hvOM/s1600/ICICI-TL-LT-24-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https
[www.niftyviews.com:22990] Fwd: Sun Pharma:The Management May Be Over Cautious Over Its Dismal Guidance---Below 785, Good Demand Zone Might Be 765-750
Forwarded Message Subject: Sun Pharma:The Management May Be Over Cautious Over Its Dismal Guidance---Below 785, Good Demand Zone Might Be 765-750 Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2015 09:00:16 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Looking at the chart, Sun Pharma (CMP:805) has immediate support of 793-785 and only sustaining below that it may further fall to 765-750 zone. Only consecutive closing below 750, Sun Pharma might fall further towards 725-700-680-650-625-610 area in the worst bear case scenario. On the upside, sustaining over 807-815 zone, immediate to short term target may be 830-836-851 and 862-872-885-900-912. Sustaining above 912, Sun Pharma may scale 935-960*-970 in the mid term and consecutive closing above that 1000-1012 1041-1075 and 1125-1200 might be the target in the long term. In brief, technically for Sun Pharma, 785-765-750 might be very good demand zone and 960-970-1010 may be a good supply zone in the near term. Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional) SL/10 FROM SLR Sun Phm CMP 805 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 795 807-815 830-836 851-862* 872-885 900-912* 935-960* 970-1012 785 Weak785 765-750*735-725 700 680 650 625 610 795 We all know, on Monday in a con call (after market hours), the Sun Pharma management lowered its guidance for FY-16 citing reasons for one time integration costs with Ranbaxy, ghosts of FDA at some of its Ranbaxy plants (specially Halol) and consequent prolonged impact of remediation measures there along with divestiture of low margin assets (to discontinue some unprofitable Ranbaxy products). Also higher investments in RD could further put pressure on margins. Going by the commentary of the management, it may be over cautious in its guidance and the market is also expecting such scenario given the dismal set of Q1 (March) numbers with no FY-16 guidance. Even now, rather than a number, its guidance only indicates that top line will either be flat or decline compared to FY-15 and bottom line could be adversely affected due to some one time charges related to Ranbaxy. The silver lining is that Sun Pharma expects things to look up after FY-17 with sustainable growth in business in the countries it operates in. The product rationalization/culling may result in higher profitability than before. It is also projecting 15-20% increase in merger related synergies and expecting the over all merger with Ranbaxy will be EPS accretive from FY-17 onwards. Also, apart from Halol, it is planning to set/redesign all the controversial plants with Ranbaxy to be FDA compliant gradually one by one. But this issue of FDA ghosts will be more clear towards the end of FY-16. Halol plant contributes around 10% sales of Sun Pharma and by FY-17, if the FDA issue is resolved, then we may see some improvements in its bottom line (being a cost effective plant). It has also good profitable product launches in the pipeline in the near future. Looking ahead, the whole merger issue with Ranbaxy may be debatable as sheer arrogance of money along with investments in Suzlon by Sanghvi brothers. But at the end of the day, Ranbaxy was a good business in distress for lack of proper management disclosures. Acquisition swap ratio procedure may also be not right. For the time being, Ranbaxy may be a severe cause of pain, but as the business fundamentals of Sun Pharma is quite good, it may be temporary. Selling in Sun Pharma may be over done in a single day and smart money might accumulate it in any unusual declines. Sun Pharma issue may be another example of Good business in temporary distress. As par BG metrics, current median valuation of Sun Pharma may be around 825 and its projected fair valuations might be around 950-1100-1250 (FY:16-18) in the current market parameters. SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA SUNPHARMA 21.93 77.12 34.5817.95 825.92 821.93 884.29 901.6 SUNPHARMA 29.27 91.75 34.5944.97 954.17 949.57 884.29 901.6 SUNPHARMA 39.08 109.5 34.51091.90 1102.54 1097.22 884.29 901.6 SUNPHARMA 50.05 130.35 34.51235.69 1247.72 1241.71 884.29 901.6 http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ll7ssHasmXA/Va8LOg9b1vI/Dds
[www.niftyviews.com:23007] Fwd: Syngene IPO: Target Might Be Around 315 In The Days Ahead After Listing, But Some Short Term Pain Can't Be Ruled Out (215-240-300
Forwarded Message Subject: Syngene IPO: Target Might Be Around 315 In The Days Ahead After Listing, But Some Short Term Pain Can't Be Ruled Out (215-240-300 Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2015 12:56:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Syngene is a contract research organization/subsidiary (CRO) of Biocon, planning to raise Rs.550 cr from its IPO. Syngene is planning further for commercial manufacturing (forward integration) space and will spend around $200 million over the next two/three years. The capex will be invested mostly in setting up of new manufacturing capacity (at Mangalore) and expanding of existing facilities. After the setting up, Syngene will be a full-fledged contract research manufacturing service player (CRAMS). Some inputs possible risks: * This is basically is an offer for sale (OFS), where the parent Biocon is selling (de-levaraging) its stake (from 84% to 74%) and the whole proceeds will go to Biocon and Syngene (i.e. more positive for Biocon scrip in the short term). * Syngene will further fund the planned expansion through internal accruals debt. * Presently, Syngene has two business models: RD and clinical supply of biopharma (60% revenue) and get around 40% revenue in the form of fees for service for full time/equivalent dedicated centres, which has primarily three large global pharma players (Baxter, Abbott and Bristol-Meyer Squibb). * The above dependance of 40% revenue from three clients may be a considerable risk, even any one of them pulls out in future (partially or fully) and may affect growth rate in revenue. * Syngene's proposed foray into commercial manufacturing diversification in future may help to contain such risk and ensure a stable revenue base. * The custom/contract research market is huge and is growing around 11.5% pa, has now around $100 billion market globally. * No doubt, there will be huge scope going ahead in CRO, any slowdown in research by these global big pharma MNC(s) may adversely affect the CRO(S), like Syngene. * This is the only listed Indian CRAMS (contract research and manufacturing services) with little/nil competition. * Company's promoter its MD have been named respondents in a criminal legal proceedings. An adverse outcome in any of these proceedings may affect the reputation and future business of the company. (Novartis sued Biocon for patent issue of anti diabetic drug Galvus). * Last FY's audited balance sheet, showing contingent liabilities of around Rs.181cr may adversely affect the profitability of the company in future, if materializes. * Around 97% of the revenue of Syngene comes from export and any unfavorable currency movements may pose some headwinds for the company. * Syngene has considerable number of bright scientists, which is a major asset in its RD wing, but the huge HR cost (nearly 5500 employee in its pay roll) may pose some threat in future if there is above average increase in employee cost salary not supported by incremental higher revenue. * Syngene's past financial performance has been robust with sales growing at around 28% annually for the last five years and OPM at around 30%. But, at the end of the day, EPS is around 6.70 8.80 (FY:14/15), translating an average EPS of around 7.75 current PE of around 32 at IPO upper band of Rs.250. With and estimated EPS growth of around 20-25% in FY:16, the company is basically asking for a valuation(PE) of around 22-25 times of its projected earnings (EPS @9.75). * The EBITDA ROE is well supported by incrementally higher sales growth and lower finance cost, which may be sustainable in future also. * Comparing with its nearest Chinese rival (WuXi), if we assume an average PE of around 22 for the projected FY:16 EPS of 9.75, the fair valuation of Syngene might be around 215 (9.75*22). * But, in practical, Indian market is traditionally at higher premium over its Asian counterpart and safe heaven appeal, specially after recent China market turmoil. Considering the average PE enjoyed by its near similar comparable company (Divis Lab SPARC), our market may assign a average PE of around 30-32 to Syngene upon/after listing as also Bangalore stamp is there ( now an unique appeal of start ups innovations, where the parent Biocon starts with mere Rs.10k in a rented garage decades ago and Infy also has similar story). * Thus, after listing Syngene might be quoted as around 290-315 (9.75*30-32) by our market in the days ahead. * By using PEG of 1, fair projected valuation of Syngene might also be around 300. In brief, the bottom line is that after listing broad range of Syngene might be around 215-240-290-315 in the near term. It could give substantial return by next three years or so and investors having eye sight
[www.niftyviews.com:22995] Fwd: Voltas: Monsoon On---Voltas Gone ? 300 Zone May Offer Good Sup Followed By 277 And 375 Might Be The Nr.Term TGT
Forwarded Message Subject: Voltas: Monsoon On---Voltas Gone ? 300 Zone May Offer Good Sup Followed By 277 And 375 Might Be The Nr.Term TGT Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 09:14:46 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Technically, Voltas (CMP:308) has immediate support of around 305-300 zone and sustain below that, it may fall to 292-285-277 area. Only consecutive closing below 277, Voltas may further fall to 270-255-245 236-225-202 in the near term under worst bear case scenario. On the upside, sustaining above 305, immediate target may be 314-317-325. Only consecutive closing above 325, it may further scale to 336-342-348-360 375 area in the near term under bullish market scenario. In brief, for Voltas, 277-300 360-375 might be very good demand and supply zone in the near term. Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional) SL/5FROM SLR Voltas CMP 308 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 300 305 314 317-325*336 342 348 360-375 296 Weak296 292 285 277*270 255 245 236-225 300 Voltas corrected by around 15% so far from its recent peak amid better than expected monsoon hits us in the month of June after scorching heat wave during March-May. Traditionally, monsoon period is a dull season for AC makers and add to this, there was some downgrade of Voltas by Nomura, citing weaker growth in room AC sales and sluggish recovery of EMP (Electro Mechanical Projects) segment. Market is also cautious about Q1 result of Voltas amid slow down in AC sales and being accompanied by heavy discounts free installations among various other competitors. But dull monsoon season after a bumper summer for AC sales is nothing new and sales of AC will probably pick up from coming festival season (Sep-Oct onwards till winter). On the other side, as par HSBC, Voltas has a strong brand recall and concern about market growth, market share sustainability of margin expansion is over done.India's average AC penetration level is a mere 3% (with metro/urban India at around 24%), is very low compared to Asian counterparts. Looking ahead, increase in discretionary spending on the back of over all expected economic recovery (H2FY16 ??) Smart City/Affordable Housing theme may benefit the overall AC segment and Voltas, being a strong brand having superb distribution servicing chain, might be a bright spot in this segment. GST may also help a bit. Voltas is now active in low cost high margin air cooler business, which may also help it to sustain market leadership in the days ahead, As par HSBC's SOTP model, fair projected valuation of Voltas is around 380 (UCP@295+MEP@36+ESB@48). As par BG metrics, current median valuation of Voltas may be around 260 and its projected fair valuation might be around 300-325-365 (FY:16-18). SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA VOLTAS 11.62 63.53 19.66 251.96 268.00 259.98 277.89 314.39 VOLTAS 14.573.15 19.66 281.46 299.37 290.41 277.89 314.39 VOLTAS 18.284.519.66 315.33 335.40 325.36 277.89 314.39 VOLTAS 22.85 98.519.66 353.32 375.81 364.57 277.89 314.39 http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UMPWYUc1rdo/VbBhG_VesAI/Dew/fjt4zWcvUlM/s1600/VOLTAS-22-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vt3wi6uUx5Q/VbBhId3bO-I/De4/gBu_aTCV6rU/s1600/VOLTAS-FIBB-22-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bLs1AerpVRQ/VbBhKC7AMbI/DfA/yBOYKhoy3tk/s1600/VOLTAS-WK-22-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ba4YgisuSXo/VbBhLvDnXrI/DfI/xqauu_Qdqig/s1600/VOLTAS-TL-22-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-r33-0GAb01Q/VbBhNtWBt2I/DfQ/C-rrJwDMT8Y/s1600/VOLTAS-PATTERN-22-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qHIcoq3rQXk/VbBhQD3DM0I/DfY/9jhh8THjCfI/s1600/VOLTAS-PATTERN-MT-22-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
[www.niftyviews.com:22985] Fwd: Bank Nifty (July): Next Up Movement Only Above 19300-500, Or Else, We Could See Again 18500-040, Parliamentary Logjam May Drag
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (July): Next Up Movement Only Above 19300-500, Or Else, We Could See Again 18500-040, Parliamentary Logjam May Drag Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2015 08:34:39 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com To: undisclosed-recipients:; Technically, BNF (LTP: 19088) has immediate support of 19018-18839* sustain below that, it may fall 18711-18545 and 18369-18254-18040-17800 zone in the near term under bear case scenario. On the upside, BNF has to sustain over 19130-180 for an immediate target of 19250-19300* and only sustaining over that, it may scale 19480-505*. Consecutive closing only above 19505, it may target 19650-19965-20450-20720-20935 area under bullish market scenario. In brief, sustaining above 19500, BNF might target 20720-20935 failure of that it may be dragged to 18500-18000-17800-17500 zone again. Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional) BNF-JULYLTP 19088 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong 19300 19405-480* 19505*-650 19833-965 20120-450 20600-720 19250 Weak 19250 19180-130* 19044-018 18941-839* 18750-711 18657-545 19300 Parliament session will start from today and we may see various political drama and logjam in both the houses amid so much political controversy. Recent history shows that during parliament session, market under performed most of the times. Although, there is a great chance that GST will be passed this time at any cost, various dissent notes are also there (such as 1% mfg tax, keeping Alcohol,Tobacco Petro Products out of ambit of GST and the proposed overall revenue neutral high rate @20% ??). As par reports, the abnormal high rate of GST may cast service inflation in our economy and there are many other flaws in it. Nevertheless, passage of GST bill is important this time it will translate a change of sentiment by our investors towards India. There is ample liquidity in the global financial system right now, thanks to 24/7 printing machine and its up to India to take it by making necessary reforms, so that FDI will pour in with confidence. Land bill may not be passed this time we may see indirect way to push it through states in the coming days. Also, land bill in present form may pose a political risk for NDA, ahead of state assembly elections. Apart form Parliament, Q1 earnings, July monsoon trend RBI tone will dictate the market in the near term. Globally, as Greece drama subsidizes to some extent for the time being and China market is limping back to normal, all eyes is on Fed liftoff. As par latest survey, 80% economists see a Sep rate hike Fed Fund Rate indicates a 40% probability of that right now. But there will be many caveats eventually in reality, Fed may employ its continuous wait watch policy till Dec'2015. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hGhOhb0zORQ/Va2z8uaw-VI/Dco/zPskOTpQ28Q/s1600/BNF-20-07-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0IpOxoUtom8/Va2z-oLJrVI/Dcw/hyjapzMJRFU/s1600/BNF-FIBB-20-07-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z3TLg7-x7D8/Va20BIiemEI/Dc4/MOKd2iLecRg/s1600/BNF-WK-20-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Qy_aRgvtyIw/Va20DY0pSsI/DdA/6BvjADj9v3I/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-20-07-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v8zOvzurU20/Va20FsbR3NI/DdI/TQZApUDreOQ/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-MT-20-07-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-srXNnSeoA3I/Va20HiimggI/DdQ/D8oiwGE1R3w/s1600/BNF-TL-20-07-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop
[www.niftyviews.com:23453] Fwd: Idea Cellular: Q2FY16 Result Was Below Street Estimates
Forwarded Message Subject:Idea Cellular: Q2FY16 Result Was Below Street Estimates Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2015 22:21:24 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Without Much "Idea" The Stock "Crashed"* *But, buying around 137-132 area may not be a bad "Idea" at all !!* Q2 PAT is at Rs.809.30 cr, up by 7% (YOY) against consensus of 835.20 (YOY and QOQ PAT at 755.9 & 930.85) Reported Q2 EPS at Rs.2.25 against median estimate of 2.15 (YOY and QOQ EPS at 2.59 & 2.11) (All are consolidated figure) *CMP: 140* * * *Suggested buying zone: 137-132* *TGT: 150-160 (1-3M)* *TGT: 185-205 & 250 (12-24M) * * * *TSL<123* Note: Consecutive closing below 123 for any reason, Idea may further fall to 110-105 level, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. *Key takeaways & rationale:* Q2FY16 PAT is tepid (down 7% YOY) and around 3% below median street estimates as earnings were mainly hampered by reduced interconnection & roaming charges (wef May'15). This is despite, net revenue increased by almost 15% due to increase in active subscribers as well as voice pulses and data usage. But sequentially, there is 5.4% drop in minutes of uses and 9.6% YOY fall in voice & data pricing. Consequently, ARPU fell to 175 in Q2 against 182 in Q1FY16. EBITDA margin also fell by 1.5% sequentially. Sequentially, the data business grew by only 5% against 83% YOY. The company spent capex of around Rs.1727 cr in Q2 for nearly 1 2G/3G base stations and 5300 km of optical fibre. Thus the company, backed by a strong group (Aditya Birla) may be gearing itself adequately to face the likely competition from R-JIO & others. As par analysts, increased sales & distribution costs and intense price competition in the telecom industry are taking a toll and causing lower ROE amid massive balance sheet debt. Idea has a consolidated debt of around Rs.16810 cr (YOY-18776), D/E of 0.73 (YOY-1.14) and PAT of Rs.2810 (YOY-1689) for FY-15. Analysts are also pointing out that over 58% of subscribers are from rural area for Idea. Historically Q2 is a tepid period in rural India for lack of sufficient economic activity and mobile callings are also reduced along with various other reasons, such as erratic monsoon this year. The company also pointed out about pressure on mobile data realization & severe competition there. Going ahead, Idea plans to roll out 4-G services shortly and by H1FY16, it will launch 4-G in its ten telecom services areas over 750 large & small towns and 4 emerging markets (KA/OR/TN/NE). Presently its main leadership markets are at MH/GOA/AP/MP/CHT/KE/PU/HR. Idea is also planning to offer various entertainment & e-commerce to its customers in 4-G digital space (like R-JIO). Market is apprehending that launch of R-JIO will intensify competition further amid sequentially higher capex requirements and call drop issues could also impact all the existing telecom operators, including Idea. Consequently, all the analysts who were earlier projecting a 12 month price target of Idea to around 190-215 following some "outperforming" quarters, are now slashing it to 150-180 (median projection of around 165) !! Looking ahead, there will be immense opportunities in "Digital India" and we may see sequentially higher usages of data, specially in metro areas where everything is available online, be it cabs or buying FMCG/daily vegetables apart from worlds of WA/FB etc. In other words, beside professional office use (PC etc), no person can think of a life without an android in India now-a-days and the android data boom will be the game changer in the telecom industry in the coming days. "Smart Indians" are now talking less over traditional mobile route and texting more with images & videos or busy with video/voice callings over the net. Thus increasing OTT usages are causing more data demands too !! R-JIO competition fear may be overdone and pre-mature to some extent as there will be hand set change issues from existing 3G to 4G and adaptation of LTE ecosystem. Thus transformation will be gradual and not be overnight amid price conscious Indian consumers as common people will certainly not throw away their existing costly smart phones for a 4G enabled device, unless its absolutely necessary. Idea, being the 3-rd largest mobile telecom company in India and backed by a financially strong group might be one of the few strong & large telecos apart from Vodafone, Airtel, Tata who are able to counter the expected aggression by R-JIO in the mobile data space. Recent price correction and other technicals are also suggesting, Idea scrip may be in the process of bottoming out as the above sets of "bad news" and analyst's "concerns" might be
[www.niftyviews.com:23459] Fwd: Eros Int. Media: "Power Of Bhaijaan"
Forwarded Message Subject:Eros Int. Media: "Power Of Bhaijaan" Date: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 09:27:45 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Another instance of buying a "good business in temporary distress * *or in an unusual condition"* (Presuming that its account books are not cooked !!) *CMP: 354* *Buy: 341-320* *TGT: 363-411-432-475-500 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 575-602-644 & 805-950 (12-24M)* * * *TSL< 315/290* NOTE: Consecutive closing below 315 for any reason, EIM can further fall up to 290-274 & 247-235-220 zone, where it can be again accumulated for better investment buying average, depending on the news flow. *Some key takeaways & rationale:* We all know the reasons behind the EIM's massive 20% fall yesterday, following 17% fall in NYSE overnight. As par reports in BBG, there was a twitter account apparently belong to some disgruntled ex-employees of the company (EIM), flashing red flags and alleging the company's books might be cooked to show some fictitious income, specially from its UAE operations. Taking the cues, Wells Fargo noted that it is "not comfortable" with EIM's business outside India. As par WF, sudden spike in revenue in EIM from UAE has some doubts and its user account data for the digital platform *Eros Now" do not match with the external app downloads data. Also there is a a significant amount of sundry debtors pending for collections from the UAE operations and EIM is also not able to "collecting" the same (receivables days increased to 269 from 161 in FY-14 !!). Even after concall, analysts are some how taking a "wait & watch" stance for EIM and all are waiting for Q2FY16 result (consensus EPS at 9.85 against 5.69 QOQ & 5.41 YOY) and actual position of its UAE operations. Although, the company has denied the above allegations in a strongly worded statement and maintaining that its fundamental remains strong as announced previously. As par some other analysts, these UAE concern of EIM is nothing new and the management has already explained its stance as for benefit of tax purposes. Going by the time & price action on the scrip, some big investors may already "smelt the rat" and exited. This explains over 45% correction in EIM scrip from its mid July peak of 644, despite some recent blockbusters like "Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Srimanthudu, Welcome Back" etc. Forthcoming scheduled releases, such as "Bajirao Mastani" & some others are also expected to do well as par as box office collections are concerned. EIM is the only listed player in the Indian media, that operates in a vertically integrated studio model-controlling content, distribution & exploitation across all formats globally. *Now, technically, 343-320 is a strong support zone for EIM and all the above bad news may be discounted by the market to a great extent, unless, of course, its being proved that the company is not manipulating its books of accounts to show higher income (like Satyam !!).* Underworld/unaccounted/black money financing in Indian film industry is not new and they are taking the advantage of some tax loopholes. Hopefully, the power of "Bhaijaan" will "take care" of this "unusual" situation in EIM in the days ahead along with "Power Of Charts". *As par BG metrics & current market parameters and also believing in EIM's published numbers :* Present median valuation of EIM may be around: 620 (FY:15) Projected fair valuations might be around: 675-810 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA EROSMEDIA 28.31 158.7 30 622.52 618.68 620.60 456.3 450.69 EROSMEDIA 32.95 183.5 30 671.60 667.46 669.53 456.3 450.69 EROSMEDIA 39.5212.7 30 735.33 730.80 733.07 456.3 450.69 EROSMEDIA 47.75 245.5 30 808.49 803.50 805.99 456.3 450.69 *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0lB2ouEKLSM/Vi7v4GvfLgI/Em4/fP6hI2CZuhU/s1600/EIM-WK-26-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-F3lF926BaGg/Vi7v5zLTYPI/EnA/ipNPYRP_45s/s1600/EIM-FIBB-26-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XhzWJnQp_r0/Vi7v8Jr3ATI/EnI/9nPBkEOBP2k/s1600/EIM-WK-MA-26-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-llv0lM7S8m0/Vi7wAlLckJI/EnQ/2UfDxunr4ow/s1600/EIM-TL-26-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uLOY0uh1ulI/Vi7wDGRjuLI/AAAAEnY/T9k88cMpzRA/s1600/EIM-TL-RSI-26-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sEa6DthiQZA/Vi7wFPlQqzI/Eng/QseOx4xJWCs/s1600/EIM-PATTERN-26-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroup
[www.niftyviews.com:23463] Fwd: TVS Motors: Q2FY16 Result Surprised The Street----
Forwarded Message Subject:TVS Motors: Q2FY16 Result Surprised The Street Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2015 08:22:29 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *The stock jumped almost 13%; * *Now expect 300-350 only sustaining above 287* Q2 PAT at Rs.116.41 cr up by around 23% (expectation 105; YOY-94.81; QOQ-90.27) Q2 EPS at 2.45 (expectation 2.21; YOY-2.00; QOQ-1.90) *CMP: 277* * * *Buy either breakout above 287 or in dips around:255-245* *TGT: 287-300-325 (1-3M)* *TGT:350-450 (12-24M)* *TSL<236* *Note: For TVS, 272 is now a strong support and sustain below 272, it may again fall to 255-245 zone, where buying may be initiated. Consecutive closing below 236, it may further fall to 230-224-213 & 207-201-195 zone, where one can again accumulate for better buying average, depending on the overall news flow and market sentiment.* *Some key takeaways & rationale:* TVS yesterday surprised the market with its Q2FY16 result, which is significantly higher than analysts consensus.. The excellent result is primarily due to better product mix and lower raw material cost amid depressed commodity prices (steel/rubber etc) and also by better vendor negotiations, which led to improved operating margins too. Although, overall 2-W sales in absolute units fell YOY, its Scooter sales (mainly Jupiter) grew by almost 12% and exports rose by 23%. Net realization per vehicle grew by more than 7% above estimates also. Going ahead, the company is optimistic about ongoing festival season sale and depending mainly on its blockbuster Jupiter brand of Scooty for the same. Recently, its also hired legendary mega star Amitabh Bachchan for its Jupiter & other TVS brands ad. TVS is not going to launch any new product in the current festival season and will concentrate on the existing models. It may launch new models in FY-16 onwards. The company is eyeing around 18% market share by FY-16 from present 13%. TVS is now emphasizing more on better margin 2-W & 3-W and less on moped sales. Almost all the analysts gave "thumbs up" to the excellent Q2 result of TVS, considering that its the only domestic 2-W company, which is consistently growing along sustained volume and able to meet the competition from the mighty of Honda (specially Activa scooty). * * *Now, considering all the above good news for TVS, the scrip already reacted already rallied around 13% and 18% (from day low to day high) in one day !!.* * * *Looking at the chart, TVS now has to sustain over 287 for its next target of 300-325 in the near term with 272 being the crucial technical support.* * * *Sustain below 272, it may got corrected to some extent towards 255-245 zone, where we may see again good buying interest.* *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* *Present median valuation of TVS may be around: 245 (FY:15/TTM)* * * *Projected fair valuations might be around: 280-330-375 (FY:16-18/Estimated)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA TVSMOTOR8.1634.63 30 240.36 246.80 243.58 236 248.81 TVSMOTOR10.55 40.75 30 273.30 280.62 276.96 236 248.81 TVSMOTOR14.75 47.25 30 323.16 331.81 327.48 236 248.81 TVSMOTOR19.25 54.930 369.17 379.06 374.12 236 248.81 *Analytical charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NWnxP-gND7A/VjA0BxYv_ZI/En4/OwzUPti0kVU/s1600/TVS-27-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O3RWtFi1qL8/VjA0ESSbsdI/EoA/n3h6hcq8LIE/s1600/TVS-FIBB-27-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-siJ90yHP5ig/VjA0GEX_q1I/EoI/alKaZlyLP44/s1600/TVS-MA-27-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OSxWpLIhgus/VjA0H73yY4I/EoQ/53ocp9JZd-I/s1600/TVS-PATTERN-27-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-U_hSBVYGj7Q/VjA0JfxT78I/EoY/jS8FU3y9EtI/s1600/TVS-TL-27-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QT_8pfLDmLg/VjA0K7C1YPI/AAAAEog/5CdcLXOn9nw/s1600/TVS-TL-MT-27-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research
[www.niftyviews.com:23466] Fwd: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut Update
Forwarded Message Subject:Market Mantra: Nifty Fut Update Date: Thu, 29 Oct 2015 08:07:43 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Fed is sounding more "hawkish" than the market thought---* *Watch 8125-8090 as vital support zone for NF today---* SGX NF: 8166 (CMP-OCT) NSE NF: 8186 (LTP) As par early morning indication, NSE NF may open around 8160-8180 zone following volatile overnight US market (Dow Fut +1% from -0.5%) after FOMC meetings and epic short squeeze in crude oil. Energy shares, IBM and US budget deals (fear of "shut down" diminished to some extent). As par latest FOMC statement, Fed seems to be more hawkish than market previously thought as it brings out again some possibility of Dec "token rate hike" and keep that event in "live" mode, of course with many caveats. Fed removed the "global & economic restrains" part of the previous statement from the latest one to make it look like they are not "concerned" about global (China) slow down !! Now, Fed Fund Rate Future is indicating an possibility of around 47% of Dec rate hike from previous 34%. Clearly, by this statement, Fed tried for some "balancing act" and to counter the growing criticism about its lack of confidence for global financial market despite reasonable US economic growth & progress. Looking forward, all eyes will be on BOJ meeting tomorrow for any expansion of QE in Japan and host of FOMC speakers including Yellen herself from tomorrow till 4-th Nov. Fed might not try to experiment with token rate hike (0.25-0.50%) till March'16 and for that, apart from global market risk, they will take excuses for US "lowflation" (no where around their target of 2%) and tepid wage inflation. They will continue for verbal intervention rather than any real action in the foreseeable future. In any way, by yesterday's Fed statement, Draghi also got his initial target for EURUSD below 1.10 land mark !! Apart from this Fed "drama", our market will focus on the ongoing Bihar election, Q2FY16 results and various reform initiatives (like more FDI in PSBS, media as indicated yesterday), being taken by the Govt after RBI did its job done. Market may not move in a big way until Bihar election exit polls/actual result. *Technically, for Nifty (Oct Fut/Spot), 8125-8090 zone is vital and sustain below that we may fall towards 8030-8000 area for the day.* *On the upside, NF/NS need to sustain above at least 8190 for 8250-8300 target for the day.* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KvfFZ7m5fG4/VjGB7UwAJAI/Eo4/ALv3IeCRhVk/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-29-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5MbaCsMosHw/VjGB-canpvI/EpA/_erNv4TCAMg/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-29-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (NCFM-TA Certified) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23445] Fwd: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Oct) Update
Forwarded Message Subject:Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Oct) Update Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2015 07:54:46 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com * Draghi is almost determined to bring EUR to parity and is ready for more QE !!* * * *Further Pre-Diwali rally now only above 8375; expect 8405-8435* SGX NF: 8345 (CMP) NSE-NF: 8261 As par early indication, NSE-NF may open around 8345 thanks to overnight US market (Dow/S Future) rally of around 2% amid Draghi (ECB) comments about more QE and better US Job data. Draghi is committed to do "more QE or whatever it needs to do" to bring back growth in EU and fight "lowflation" and fixed next Dec'3 for a definitive real action. But nevertheless, his jawbone alone is sufficient to bought down the EUR/USD instantly by almost 2% to around 1.10. By his comments, it seems that he is committed to bring the EUR to almost parity (1.00). As par market buzz, BOJ may also expand its QE programme on Oct'30 and PBOC may also cut its repo rate by 0.50% in one or two tranches in the near term. China may also extend some mini stimulus to stall the "slow down" of its economy. Day before yesterday, there was some market talk that Chinese Govt may withdraw the "direct support" to its stock market after it stabilizes to some extent. But there was no official comments about it and later Chinese Premier talked about the importance of a stable & vibrant domestic stock market necessary for its economy and overall sentiment. *Amid all the above supportive global cues, technically, NF has to sustain above 8375 for next hurdle of 8405-8435. Consecutive closing above 8435, we may see 8675 in NF even before Diwali !!* *On the downside, immediate support is placed at 8325-8305 and fall below that we may see 8240-8210 followed by 8190-8150 zone in the next few days.* * * <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GUxToM3x0TU/VimZW5sVXHI/EjI/uU2-sarRy10/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-22-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hofzIABgiIo/VimZZIoSgVI/EjQ/rPPNHt1u7IA/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-22-10-2015.png> * * -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23446] Fwd: Federal Bank: "Your Perfect Banking Partner"
Forwarded Message Subject:Federal Bank: "Your Perfect Banking Partner" Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2015 07:04:50 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Q2FY16 Result Was Not Perfect & Way Below Street Estimates And The Stock Crashed Q2 PAT at Rs.161 cr, down by 32.8% (YOY-240 cr) against estimate of 290.50 cr Q2 EPS as 0.94 against estimate of 1.70 (YOY-1.40) *55-48 Might Be Proved As Very Good Demand Zone For TGT Of 68-80 * *CMP: 57* *Buy around: 55-48 * * * *TGT: 68-80 (1-12M)* * * *TGT: 90-100 (24M)* * * *TSL<40* Note: Consecutive closing below 40 for any reason, FB can fall up to 35-25 zone, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. *Some key takeaways :* FB "surprised" the street with a very disappointing Q2 earnings down almost 33% YOY on higher provisions for few large corporate loan accounts stress under restructured assets (CDR- Metal & Power sectors). As par reports, Essar Steel & Ratnagiri Power may be those two CDR accounts. Provisions & contingencies jumped by almost 91% to Rs.87.28 cr (YOY-45.7) and on net NPA front, the bank scored quite badly. NIM was also flat. Going ahead, the bank is optimistic for a turnaround and timely resolution of its NPL(s) including the above CDR accounts as most of them are "well collateralised". The bank is also targeting 15% credit growth in FY-16 from the present level of 5% (YOY) and is quite confident about the MSME sector and hopeful about corporate credit growth. The bank has around 1250 branches all over India and 65% of those are in semi-urban, rural & non-metro locations and the management is confident about competing with new entrants (small & payment banks). FB is also foraying big into digital banking called "Selfie" and is confident that it will increase its CASA ratio quite substantially. But analysts are not so confident about the management commentary and has downgraded the stock from previous 80-90 target to 70-80 now (From Buy To Hold/Accumulate/Neutral rating). QOQ numbers is not so "shocking" as Q2FY16 PAT of 161.28 has been grown by around 14% from Q1FY16 PAT of around 141.39. Net provisions are also down by almost 42% to 87.28 from 153.10 (QOQ). In any way, the result of FB undermines the vulnerability of small banks to "large" corporate loan accounts (above 25 cr). Sudden stress of few hundred crores may wipe out these small banks. There will be around twenty one new players entering in to differentiated banking in India shortly (payment & small banks). Certainly competition will increase sequentially higher and companies having very deep pockets may be able to survive in the game only. Full banking is not so easy and India is not a place for so many banks to survive.Thus M will inevitably happen in the banking industry in the years ahead and all small banks including FB may be one of them (M candidate !!). Quite a few of the new banking entrants are large corporate groups & "startups" flush with funds. At certain point of time they, as well as the new banking aspirants want to grow either organically or inorganically and that may change the rule of the game. Small Banks & Payment Banks can take away some loan & CASA accounts from some full fledged banks in future but at this point of time its too early & premature to judge and its not possible for a partial bank to compete with a full bank because of the limitations of service availability with a partial bank vis-a-vis a full bank. As par some estimates, there might be around 10% effect on NIM for this issue in future on the part of some full fledged banks and various full banks are tying up with payment banks for mutual benefit. We can see similar trends in the case of small banks also to avoid direct intense competition. *Now, technically for FB*, below estimate Q2FY16 result "shocker" may be already discounted to a great extent by the market and considering the favorable risk/reward ratio 55-48 range might be a good buying zone for it and *it may be another instance of "buying a good business in temporary distress".* *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* Present median valuation of Federal Bank may be around : 75 (FY:15) Projected fair valuations might be around: 80-90-100 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA FEDERALBNK 5.7788.09 15 75.78 74.32 75.05 66.35 63.82 FEDERALBNK 6.6598.25 15 81.35 79.79 80.57 66.35 63.82 FEDERALBNK 7.75109.75 15 87.82 86.13 86.98 66.35 63.82 FEDERALBNK 9.5 122.25 15 97.24 95.36 96.30 66.35 63.82 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blo
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23525] Fwd: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17
Exp probability at around 8055-8205; SL<7680/7540 >From My Lava On Nov 11, 2015 9:36 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > Sir. this expiry view in nfty ? > > On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > Forwarded Message > > Subject: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17 > > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 11:41:35 +0530 > > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> > > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com > > > > > > > > *For NF (Nov), 7750-7680 is big support now followed by 7540-7500 zone; * > > *Near term target 8055* > > > > *After Bihar "debacle", Govt's pro-active reform initiatives * > > *& dovish RBI may help,* > > *Despite Fed lift off "risk" in Dec'15* > > > > > > SGX NF: 7790 (CMP) > > > > NSE NF: 7800 (LTP) > > > > Trading Levels: NF-Nov > > > > > > > > SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > For Intraday Swing Trader > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > > Strong > 7770 > > 7825-40*7900-80 8005-55*8085-110 > 8135-205<7750 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Weak <7750 > > 7720-680* 7660-30 7563-40*7500-445 > 7400-300>7770 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > FOR ConservativePositional Trader > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > > Strong > 7770 > > 7840* 79808055* 81108205-340<7750 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Weak <7750 > > 7680* 76307540* 74457300-7030 >7770 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > As expected, after Bihar election debacle (primarily for its own > > strategical blunder for BJP), Govt is now gearing up for all possible > > non-legislative reforms in a big way and yesterday's Diwali gift of > > big-bang FDI reforms may be just an indication. > > > > We may see more such pro-active initiatives on the part of the Govt in > > the days ahead irrespective of any political compulsions, because after > > Bihar election, BJP might realize that "intolerance, beef politics, mud > > slugging " etc are not alternatives for pro-development agenda to win > > voter's mind. > > > > Regarding various key reform passage, which are stuck in RS, Govt may > > also try to push it through state levels in an indirect way (like land > > reforms). After Bihar, Govt may also try to reach out to the key > > opposition parties in RS with more soft tones and re-conciliatory > > manners (i.e. back door negotiation & effective political management) > > leaving aside its "arrogance of LS numbers" for passage of GST & other > > key reform bills in winter session of Parliament. > > > > If united oppositions will not "oblige" either directly or indirectly > > (through abstain), then we may see even an extreme step like "Joint > > Session Of Parliament" to pass those bills. > > > > Clearly, BJP should believe in its own economic agenda and reform > > implementation policies more boldly, otherwise, even 2019 Parliament > > election may not be a "smooth affair" for it. > > > > Also state level acceptable face of a leader is required for a CM's > > post; too much dependency on "brand NAMO" & disassociation of its former > > key professional strategist also costing the BJP to a great extent. The > > strategist, who actually made the "brand NAMO" along with his > > professional team, recently shifted to Nitish Kumar's camp just few > > months ago of Bihar election, after some section of top BJP leaders > > tried to dump him after 2014 parliament election success (before Delhi > > election) !! > > > > Though Q2FY16 result is more or less as par street estimates, certainly > >
[www.niftyviews.com:23507] Fwd: PNB: Is The NPA At Its Peak In PSBS ?
Forwarded Message Subject:PNB: Is The NPA At Its Peak In PSBS ? Date: Sun, 8 Nov 2015 19:07:13 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *127-123 may be a good buying zone for target of 163-180 for PNB* Although Q2FY16 PAT missed estimates, NII improvement & sequential NPA fall surprised the street to some extent; Deleverage & retail banking thrust may help in future. *CMP: 133* * * *Buy either on break out above 137-142 or wait for dips around 127-123* * * *TGT: 152-163-180 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 215-240-280 (12-36M)* * * *TSL<118* Note: Consecutive closing below 118 for any reason, PNB can fall up to 105-95 zone, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. * * *Some key takeaways & rationale:* Q2FY16 PAT of PNB was at Rs.621 cr; up by 8% YOY, but down by over 33% sequentially against median expectations of around Rs.929 cr (QOQ-721 & YOY-575). Q2 EPS was at 3.35 against consensus of 4.21 (QOQ-3.89 & YOY-3.18). Q2 NII was at Rs.4322 cr up by around 4.1% YOY-4151.20 against estimate of Rs.4202 cr. On stressed asset quality, net NPA declined by 1.34% sequentially but up by 30.7% on YOY at Rs.15187 cr on Q2FY16. There were both negative impacts of lower other income, slow growth in loan, marginal increase in provisions and positive impact on fall in tax cost on overall Q2 PAT. The management of PNB is quite optimistic about the Q2 result as the bank is improving in terms of asset quality. PNB is also eyeing big on retail banking and as par the CEO, its "shifting gears" to change itself accordingly. It will focus more on small retail & SME loans as new strategy. PNB is now also more open to sell its stressed assets to ARCS to counter sticky loan accounts more aggressively apart from thrust in recoveries. But PNB's restructured loans can turn fast into NPA in the days ahead, if there is no visible recovery in the core sector of our economy as 10% of its total loan is now stands in CDR as on Q2FY16. Looking ahead, PSBS are now apparently in control over its NPA front and we may see incrementally lower slippages amid maximum thrust on recoveries and muted growth of fresh corporate loans. Thus worst may be behind for the NPA cycle as far as the PSBS are concerned. Recent power sector & state discoms reform initiative may also be good to some extent for the PSBS, where lots of pains (stressed assets) are there. Now, on the valuation metrics, PSBS also offer better return & limited risks and should be a part of an ideal portfolio over 2-3 years long term view. Govt may also allow for 49% FDI in PSBS in the days ahead for huge capital requirement and running them in a professional manner. PNB has already corrected by over 45% in the last 11 months and technically, 127-123 is now a very good support zone. Monetization of housing & insurance arm (deleveraging) my be another trigger for PNB in the days ahead. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters :* (on TTM & FWD EPS basis) Present median valuation of PNB may be around: 140 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 165-186-215 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA PNB 13.21 203.24 10.5144.64 135.25 139.95 150.82 131.89 PNB 18.25 220.45 10.5170.00 158.98 164.49 150.82 131.89 PNB 24.5241.5 10 192.23 179.76 185.99 150.82 131.89 PNB 32.75 267.75 10 222.25 207.83 215.04 150.82 131.89 Analytical Charts: <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sVtqU7fWJK4/Vj82pfVjeVI/ExE/UkSMBTSpwAY/s1600/PNB-WK-06-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-l1NlF7_p40k/Vj82sikDb7I/ExM/gEDvVfkm3XQ/s1600/PNB-FIBB-06-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E34k923XkLU/Vj823MPiw6I/ExU/_-3WrFqPeWE/s1600/PNB-WK-MA-06-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TR6KX3u1qq8/Vj825zUBYSI/Exc/sBvToH5DORI/s1600/PNB-PATTERN-06-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QeyKINwPK_4/Vj828AKJu0I/Exk/EmWMq81Oekw/s1600/PNB-TL-06-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DPCL1ZUEPms/Vj83AZO1_hI/Exs/7MHl6lJhNik/s1600/PNB-PATTERN-LT-06-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion an
[www.niftyviews.com:23517] Fwd: Sun Pharma: Ghosts Of Halol Plant/Ranbaxy & USFDA Is Still There ??
Forwarded Message Subject: Sun Pharma: Ghosts Of Halol Plant/Ranbaxy & USFDA Is Still There ?? Date: Tue, 10 Nov 2015 08:51:47 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com The stock is down by nearly 38% from its April'15 peak & may be bottoming out *For Sun Pharma, 740-725 might be a good buying zone for 875-935 in the near term* Successful Halol Plant compliance resolution and Ranbaxy integration holds the key--- *CMP: 757* * * *Buy around 740-725; * * * *TGT: 790-835-875-935 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 975-1075-1135-1200 (12-24M)* * * *TSL< 715* *Note:* Consecutive closing below 715 zone for any reason, Sun can fall up to 690-675-650 & 619-600-570 area, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. Scrips of both Sun Pharma slumped for the last few days after the company missed estimates for Q2FY16 and also cut guidance for the rest of the FY-16. In addition to that, market is also concerned over its Halol plant compliance issues with USFDA. Another pharma major DRL got an official warning from USFDA recently and analysts are concerned over the similar fate for Sun Pharma also. There are market buzz that Sun has already got an OAI (official action indicated) and there is higher probability that it will also be issued with a warning letter from USFDA. This Halol plant of ex-Ranbaxy has been under USFDA observation for quite a long time and the company is finding great difficulties for fresh approvals on product launches from this plant. Although the management has assured that the company is doing its best for "original remediation" of the Halol Plant, keeping the USFDA in loop "at great frequency", the market is concerned about its impact on US business and profits in FY-16. But keeping in view the likely benefit of Ranbaxy integration (synergy), analysts are giving an average TP of around 900 for the Sun Pharma scrip, significantly down from earlier projections. Q2FY16 result was also below street estimates, although the company has already issued "profit warning" in advance. Q2 consolidated PAT declined by around 46% (YOY) to Rs.1107 cr due to lower sales growth, cross currency headwinds/volatility and supply constraints. Another disappointing fact was that its domestic (India) sales, which contributes around 26% of its revenue has grown by only 1% in Q2 (YOY). The company attributed it to inventory control, withdrawal of product bonus offer (to trade), relatively soft season in the acute segment and erratic monsoon this year (seasonal ailments). The US sales, which contributed around 48% of Sun Pharma was also declined 28% (YOY) due to competitive pricing pressure, supply constraints at Halol Plant and high base for the last year's same quarter. Looking ahead, the company is confident about prescription sales growth in India and resolution of its Halol Plant and fresh product approvals from USFDA. There may be pricing pressure on US market due 2016 presidential election year as its inviting lots of criticism for high prices of medicines in US from their politicians, but its an industry wide issue. Looking at the time & price action & the recent correction on the Sun Pharma scrip, the above sets of bad news may be already discounted by the market to a great extent. Technically, 740-725 is a strong support zone for Sun and its need to sustain over 790 for some meaningful rally up to 875-935 in the near term. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (On consolidated TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of Sun Pharma may be around: 800 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 855-950-1120 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA SUNPHARMA 18.14 95.99 40 798.72 781.71 790.22 879.21 842.16 SUNPHARMA 20.85 115.25 40 856.31 838.07 847.19 879.21 842.16 SUNPHARMA 25.75 138.75 40 951.62 931.36 941.49 879.21 842.16 SUNPHARMA 35.95 165.75 40 1124.41 1100.47 1112.44 879.21 842.16 * Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wpsex_Yl-D4/VkFfhKRbCHI/E0k/twhNZRxkiM0/s1600/Sun-wk-09-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-59hCj6MqXiU/VkFfi2dF4rI/E0s/03GxXalumow/s1600/Sun-Fibb-09-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ewmyj3NXKvg/VkFfkgfqXzI/E00/FJiW25-bvpg/s1600/Sun-WK-MA-09-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TfPqREKae0M/VkFfmgLpL0I/E08/yscN4aiZT2k/s1600/Sun-Pattern-09-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hWDQE7S65Gk/VkFfols5zXI/E1E/tZXri6SroT0/s1600/Sun-TL-RSI-09-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3qcQ3zUC860/VkFfvK-2mQI/E1M/kgcosGaGYw8/s1600/Sun-TL-09-11-2015.png> -- Th
[www.niftyviews.com:23534] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Nov): 16600-16500 Is A Good Support-----
Forwarded Message Subject:Bank Nifty (Nov): 16600-16500 Is A Good Support- Date: Fri, 13 Nov 2015 08:21:37 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect 17540-17950 only sustaining above 16500;* *Otherwise 15795-15325 may be on the card* Govt's reform initiatives & NPA peaking may help *Trading Levels : BNF-Nov* LTP: 16971 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 16550 16625-750 16850-993 17060-130* 17200-240 17325-540 <16500 Weak < 16500 16394-325 16195-050 15915-882* 15795-560 15450-325 >16550 As par early morning indication, today both NF & BNF may open lower as SGX NF is trading around 7760 followed by overnight weak US market (down by around 1.40%). US & global market is some what confused by a brigade of FOMC speakers yesterday including Chair Yellen (Fed soap opera !!). Although Yellen was quiet about any Dec lift off, others were sounding more like hawkish. As of yesterday, FFR projecting around 66% probability of Fed rate hike in Dec and 90% of the economists polled by Reuters are expecting that too. Although, the above numbers are quite impressive, Fed will look into various economic data including today's PPP & retail sales figure and next month's NFP figure. Some sections of the market are also skeptical about any possible Dec lift off by Fed as that may roil the market at the year end. Also there is higher risk of severe El-Nino in the US/Pacific ocean next year. In any case, market may also be slowly discounting the probable Dec lift off and subsequent rate hike @0.25% in every alternate meeting up to 1.25-1.50% FFR by Dec'2016. On the part of the Fed, they are doing a tremendous job of market expectation management and this time, if they do not act in Dec'15, then credibility of Fed may be put in question too. Its really a catch 22 position for them !! Back to home, as expected, Govt unleashed a barrage of FDI reforms in the form of Diwali gift, just after Bihar debacle and expect more of such types of gifts in the coming days including passage of GST. *For BNF, technically, we may be in the 2-nd wave in the daily EW set up and the projected target of the same might be around 16650-16000 and in that scenario, 3-rd wave may take us to around 17950-18000.* *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vVvtE2FN-PM/VkVKrn40fwI/E3Y/g73xClcKChk/s1600/BNF-WK-11-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aznuLeJB6oE/VkVKvZk42vI/E3g/EetYp56NfvQ/s1600/BNF-FIBB-11-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6MvdzW5f1S8/VkVKxhRGghI/E3o/oOqkti8SUzE/s1600/BNF-WK-MA-11-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uyVNjIwnrYM/VkVK80RGNlI/E3w/QKULlwYvv-4/s1600/BNF-TL-RSI-11-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EE9NiFgGseA/VkVK_Q5xPdI/E34/oU3TTC2xZKs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-11-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MpYuZ_zEXM4/VkVLBkZL9OI/E4A/OOvIuXe4Q38/s1600/BNF-EW-11-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23542] Fwd: Bank Of Baroda: Though There Is Hope---The Worst May Not Be Over Yet
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Of Baroda: Though There Is Hope---The Worst May Not Be Over Yet Date: Tue, 17 Nov 2015 09:35:21 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For BOB, 180-195 zone might be proved as very strong supply zone for the time being* Expect Q3/Q4FY16 to be very tough for stressed assets management *CMP: 176* * * *Sell on rise: 180-195* * * *TGT: 155-136 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>201* Note: Consecutive closing above 201 for any reason, BOB may scale up to 220-250 and in that scenario, sell position should be reversed. Although, the stock reacted positively on new management's assurances about ROE and future stressed asset managements, considering the heavy exposoure to some of the debt laden corporate groups (for example Essar steel) and continuing woes of metal (iron & steel) sector, in reality, the overall stressed situation might improve only after Q4FY16 as its top 20 accounts contribute nearly 75% of overall slippages. Some analysts also cut the FY16-17 earnings by around 15% on account of higher estimates of bad loans and slower credit growth. Although, the stock rallied over 25% from the recent Q2FY16 result day low assuming worst may be over for BOB as far its NPA is concerned, but as par management's own statement, next two quarters may be quite tough for it. Technically, for BOB, 180-195 zone is a very strong resistance and only sustaining above that, it may scale further up to 220-250 zone. For an investment perspective, 155-136 zone may be a safe area to accumulate it in the present market conditions, considering the low risk reward ratio as NPA may be peaking in the next two quarters for BOB/PSBS and Govt may unleash a slew of measures to improve capital structure & functioning of PSBS (by way of FDI, M & incorporating professional management). *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (Based on TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of BOB may be around: 157 (FY:15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 150-190-220 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA BANKBARODA 9.55179.62 15 157.71 155.89 156.80 173.63 169.65 BANKBARODA 8.95235.75 15 152.68 150.92 151.80 173.63 169.65 BANKBARODA 13.95 260.55 15 190.61 188.41 189.51 173.63 169.65 BANKBARODA 19.05 292.25 15 222.74 220.18 221.46 173.63 169.65 *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-a_K89UDad-A/VkqayEt8tsI/E6Q/PieRmDdpq3U/s1600/BOB-16-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CHd8dmTFRdw/Vkqaz4S_m1I/E6Y/BmM3HQ1nJrI/s1600/BOB-FIBB-16-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VUVVSmMYBq4/Vkqa2JOumzI/E6g/lm2A4odRYgo/s1600/BOB-WK-16-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d0-yR93_PzE/Vkqa4Fr5nAI/E6o/vW_b3KsnI_4/s1600/BOB-TL-16-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7Pjjje0ynxE/Vkqa6XQvelI/E6w/LKdCq7YX8qk/s1600/BOB-TL-MT-16-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PfFCPfEyPqw/Vkqa8f8UtUI/E64/km_fy6EtXPM/s1600/BOB-PATTERN-16-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23539] Fwd: Tata Motors: Worst May Be Behind; But Struggling For Better Times ??
Forwarded Message Subject: Tata Motors: Worst May Be Behind; But Struggling For Better Times ?? Date: Mon, 16 Nov 2015 08:40:48 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Tata Motors 420-430 May Be Proved As A Strong Supply Zone * *CMP: 404* * * *Sell on rise near 420-430;* * * *TGT: 395-375-350 (1-2M)* * * *TGT: 328-308-280 (3-6M)* * * *TSL> 440* Note: Consecutive closing above 435 for any reason, TM can scale to 448-452 zone in the near term, which is again a strong supply zone for it. Only sustaining above 452, TM may rally up to 475-492 & 510-532-575-612 zone in the mid to long term and in that scenario, "Sell" position should be reversed. TM is a great stock for portfolio buying; but considering the risk reward ratio and trading purpose, buy on major dips near 328-308 might be better. It has a good rally amid various positive news flows recently and may retrace to some extent as the market has already digested those positive events. It is purely a "technical" view. To be continued for more news inputs & rationale- *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-A_jDecTBp9U/VklGjIbOs-I/E5U/cS4IOhygIkg/s1600/TM-13-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aKH8jipr_sc/VklGmBf8ZNI/E5c/G0-euNOiWzI/s1600/TM-FIBB-13-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jPbL-0Anroo/VklGoD9Q_AI/E5k/ioGcfP-gp-w/s1600/TM-WK-13-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7e3Id_dN2zk/VklGr0nR40I/E5s/EgezIdOdZD4/s1600/TM-PATTERN-13-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nT-vEsvdVlw/VklGv0nEGRI/E50/D7R6EFyWIhc/s1600/TM-TL-13-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oyTPLkTeoXg/VklG0eL1DoI/AAAAE58/xcCxeHhFbfo/s1600/TM-EW-M-13-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23529] Fwd: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17
Expect it by Monday >From My Lava On Nov 12, 2015 8:29 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > to morrow posible 7900 ? > > On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Exp probability at around 8055-8205; SL<7680/7540 > > > > From My Lava > > On Nov 11, 2015 9:36 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > >> Sir. this expiry view in nfty ? > >> > >> On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > Forwarded Message ---- > >> > Subject: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17 > >> > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 11:41:35 +0530 > >> > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> > >> > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > *For NF (Nov), 7750-7680 is big support now followed by 7540-7500 > zone; > >> > * > >> > *Near term target 8055* > >> > > >> > *After Bihar "debacle", Govt's pro-active reform initiatives * > >> > *& dovish RBI may help,* > >> > *Despite Fed lift off "risk" in Dec'15* > >> > > >> > > >> > SGX NF: 7790 (CMP) > >> > > >> > NSE NF: 7800 (LTP) > >> > > >> > Trading Levels: NF-Nov > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > For Intraday Swing Trader > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > >> > Strong > 7770 > >> > 7825-40*7900-80 8005-55*8085-110 > >> 8135-205<7750 > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > Weak <7750 > >> > 7720-680* 7660-30 7563-40*7500-445 > >> 7400-300>7770 > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > FOR ConservativePositional Trader > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > >> > Strong > 7770 > >> > 7840* 79808055* 81108205-340<7750 > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > Weak <7750 > >> > 7680* 76307540* 74457300-7030 >7770 > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > As expected, after Bihar election debacle (primarily for its own > >> > strategical blunder for BJP), Govt is now gearing up for all possible > >> > non-legislative reforms in a big way and yesterday's Diwali gift of > >> > big-bang FDI reforms may be just an indication. > >> > > >> > We may see more such pro-active initiatives on the part of the Govt in > >> > the days ahead irrespective of any political compulsions, because > after > >> > Bihar election, BJP might realize that "intolerance, beef politics, > mud > >> > slugging " etc are not alternatives for pro-development agenda to win > >> > voter's mind. > >> > > >> > Regarding various key reform passage, which are stuck in RS, Govt may > >> > also try to push it through state levels in an indirect way (like land > >> > reforms). After Bihar, Govt may also try to re
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23531] Fwd: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 & 9200-9400 By FY17
If tomorrow NF open G/D below 7750 due to the ongoing Fed drama---then
buy on dips with SLR<7680 (my 2-nd level of NF support) might help---
On 12/11/2015 08:38 PM, Sayeeram Trikannad wrote:
SGX is down 7750
On 12-Nov-2015 8:35 pm, "Asis Ghosh" <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Expect it by Monday
From My Lava
On Nov 12, 2015 8:29 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com
<mailto:dipak.197...@gmail.com>> wrote:
to morrow posible 7900 ?
On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
> Exp probability at around 8055-8205; SL<7680/7540
>
> From My Lava
> On Nov 11, 2015 9:36 PM, "dipak panchal"
<dipak.197...@gmail.com <mailto:dipak.197...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>
>> Sir. this expiry view in nfty ?
>>
>> On 11/11/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Forwarded Message
>> > Subject: Nifty Fut: Expect 8200-8400 By FY16 &
9200-9400 By FY17
>> > Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 11:41:35 +0530
>> > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com
<mailto:asis...@gmail.com>>
>> > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com <mailto:asis...@gmail.com>
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > *For NF (Nov), 7750-7680 is big support now followed by
7540-7500 zone;
>> > *
>> > *Near term target 8055*
>> >
>> > *After Bihar "debacle", Govt's pro-active reform
initiatives *
>> > *& dovish RBI may help,*
>> > *Despite Fed lift off "risk" in Dec'15*
>> >
>> >
>> > SGX NF: 7790 (CMP)
>> >
>> > NSE NF: 7800 (LTP)
>> >
>> > Trading Levels: NF-Nov
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > For Intraday Swing Trader
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
>> > Strong > 7770
>> > 7825-40*7900-80 8005-55*8085-110
>> 8135-205<7750
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Weak <7750
>> > 7720-680* 7660-30 7563-40*7500-445
>> 7400-300>7770
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > FOR ConservativePositional Trader
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
>> > Strong > 7770
>> > 7840* 79808055* 8110 8205-340<7750
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Weak <7750
>> > 7680* 76307540* 7445 7300-7030 >7770
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > As expected, after Bihar election debacle
[www.niftyviews.com:23469] Fwd: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Nov) Update
Forwarded Message Subject:Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Nov) Update Date: Fri, 30 Oct 2015 08:25:28 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *All eyes will be on the BOJ today* SGX NF: 8123 (CMP) NSE NF: 8142 (LTP) As par early morning indication NSE NF may open around 8125-8140 zone, following tepid overnight US market. But now Dow Fut is trading comfortably in positive zone in around +0.5%. Yesterday's US GDP was in line with market estimates and came at 1.5% (against 1.6% estimate & prior 3.9%). That was largely USD neutral. Globally, all eyes will be on the BOJ announcement shortly today for any extension of QQE. As par reports, BOJ may even consider to buy equity along with Govt bonds to stimulate Japan's economy. *For NF, technically, 8090-8055 is a good support zone followed by 8010-7975 zone.* * * *On the upside, sustain over at lest 8140-8180 may attract 8210-8250 followed by 8285-8365 area in the next few days.* Fear of Fed lift off in Dec has spooked our market to some extent yesterday amid expiry related volatility. Asset slippage (NPA/NPL) concerns for Axis bank also spilled over other private banks including ICICI and some PSBS also (SBI/PNB etc). But, going forward, even if Fed decides for token lift off in Dec to counter growing criticism, there is enough global liquidity amid dovish ECB/BOJ/PBOC. As par reports, there is a net inflow of around $35 bn in the EM/DM EQ market for the last few months. <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-z7LcrZcCuVY/VjLZs7YxJ8I/EqM/Lsjyadc68fE/s1600/SGX-NF-30-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OHVebJp558o/VjLZvCg_byI/EqU/IdoTmqYOW8o/s1600/SGX-NF-Pattern-30-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23484] Fwd: Monday, 2 November 2015,Bank Nifty (Nov): Has To Sustain Above 17100-16900---
Forwarded Message Subject: Monday, 2 November 2015,Bank Nifty (Nov): Has To Sustain Above 17100-16900--- Date: Mon, 2 Nov 2015 08:05:06 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect 18000 only sustaining above 17100-16900;* *Otherwise we may see 16000-15790* Market talk of FDI hike proposal in PSBS to 49% may help, while continuing slippage in assets is a concern *Trading Levels: * BNF-Nov LTP 17412 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 17100 17200-350 17500-620 17735-790* 17870-995 18040-110 <17050 Weak < 17050 16990-910 16840-750 16685-600* 16500-345 16110-050 >17100 *Technically, BNF may be in the corrective 2-nd Wave in daily EW setup and the normal target for the same might be around 17150-16900. In that scenario, projected 3-rd Wave target might be around 18550-20800 !! (most extended rally).* Last week BNF spooked to some extent due to unexpected slippages in assets for Axis Bank and subsequent selling in other bank stocks (like ICICI/SBI/PNB etc). Recent trends in stressed assets may be an indication that there is still pain in balance sheets for Banks & NBFC(s) in absence of widely expected visible economic recovery till now. As par reports, stressed assets for the Indian Banking system are at around 13% and still rising !!. Some of the groups has amazing amount of debt in balance sheets and NPA with various banks.Although they are selling assets to reduce debt, at the same time, selling of core assets is also affecting their operational revenues/profits. Hopefully, this may be the peak of stressed assets in our banking system. Also there are concerns of competition from newly licensed payment & small banks. As par reports, Govt may be considering hiking FDI limit in PSBS from present 20% to 49% for an immediate alternative of huge fund requirement for recapitalization & Basel-III norms. Also various small PSBS may be merged for a bigger banking entity. Many small private banks might be M candidate as well in the days ahead. *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W2rsZJpc58A/VjbIquH7IuI/Er8/h9AinQLkIQg/s1600/BNF-30-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-D5579A_bkPI/VjbIteXVChI/EsE/yRk81H-dXmA/s1600/BNF-FIBB-30-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-f6WJnxRQykA/VjbIwKS5WLI/EsM/39hSMr0VYeo/s1600/BNF-WK-30-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PNAb6UN1MpQ/VjbIx5faZeI/EsU/pbd7gzgI4dk/s1600/BNF-TL-RSI-30-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LZMSg-UjJnE/VjbI0IZwdhI/Esc/Ag3Dgl72YvI/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-30-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fRsyPh69DNs/VjbI16-7UaI/Esk/4Q8vv8lhOlI/s1600/BNF-EW-30-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23496] Fwd: Axis Bank: Q2FY16 Fresh Slippages & Disclosure Issue Shocked The Street---
Forwarded Message Subject: Axis Bank: Q2FY16 Fresh Slippages & Disclosure Issue Shocked The Street--- Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2015 08:43:20 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com The stock corrected by more than 12% after the Q2 result, which was largely inline with street estimates Now, 465-445 might be proved again as good demand zone for Axis Bank For target of 535-655 *CMP: 472* *Buy around: 465-455-445* *TGT: 490-510-535-550 (1-3M)* *TGT: 590-613-655-705 (12-24M)* *TSL<435* Note: For Axis, 465-445 is a strong support and 485-490 is a good resistance zone as of now. Consecutive closing below 435 for any reason, it can fall up to 415-395-375 & 355-330 area where it can be again accumulated for better investment buying average. *Some key takeaways & rationale:* Q2FY16 result and operational metrics of Axis Bank was largely inline with street estimates. Q PAT of Axis Bank was at Rs.1916 cr, up by around 19% YOY against median street estimate of around 1912; QOQ-1978; YOY-1611. Q2 EPS was at 8.00 against consensus of 8.22 and QOQ 8.27; YOY-6.78. NII was also in line with market expectations and grew by around 15% YOY with a healthy loan growth of around 23%. Retail & corporate loan grew by around 26%, which may be also above industry average. But the bank's decision to sell two power sector standard (?) loan accounts to ARC at steep discounts was thumbed down by the market. In Q2, Axis Bank sold the above two loan accounts belonging to a same promoter group worth Rs.1820 cr for just Rs.650 cr, which caused the bank dearly for Rs.1170 cr. Out of these 1170 cr, the bank has used the Q1 contingency provision of 850 cr and made the remaining 320 cr in fresh provisions in Q2. The bank has also refinanced another two power sector loans for Rs.1500 cr under the recent 5/25 RBI scheme. Thus fresh slippages (new stressed assets) in Q2 rose to Rs.4400 cr for Axis Bank, which is sharp incremental or sequential growth of around 83% from previous Q1 of Rs.2400 cr. The management however retained its earlier guidance of fresh impairment (slippages) creation at Rs.5700 cr for FY-16, but this amount does not include sales to ARC(s). Analysts are surprised because of this selling of "so called" standard loans (in Q1) to ARC at such steep discount all of a sudden in Q2. Market is also worried about the corporate governance, transparency of the management of Axis Bank which is the the third largest private sector bank in India as these sale of standard loans was not disclosed separately in its initial Q2 earning release. Investors seem to be loosing confidence in the credibility of management of Axis Bank and this issue of fresh slippages are also affecting scrips of other banking majors such as ICICI, SBI etc. Market is also unhappy, because Axis Bank is not disclosing the name of the promoter group of the above mentioned stressed power sector loan accounts !! But Axis Bank may be right because of banking & client disclosure secrecy/privacy issues. Analysts are worried over such slippages and are apprehending more similar disclosures of such stressed assets from Axis and other banks as well because of tepid conditions of power & other core sector of our economy. But even after various ratings on the stock, the average TP for next 12M comes around 600 for Axis Bank !! Looking ahead, with expected power sector reforms, state Govt may take the NPA(s) of state discom's on its own balance sheet !! If this happened, then it will be hugely positive for Indian banking sectors and Axis Bank may be also a major beneficiary of that. Also, along with expected overall economic recovery to be visible by H2FY16 (?), woes of power/core sector might be diminished to a great extent. Thus formation of fresh stressed assets may be peaking as far as the core sectors of our economy is concerned because there is no "legacy issues of policy paralysis" now and Govt is also proactively taking various steps to rejuvenate this vital sector. As par various reports, Axis Bank's has relatively low exposure of around 2.% of its entire loan book to iron & steel sector. Going by the time & price action on the scrip, the above sets of bad news may be already discounted by the market to a great extent. The scrip got corrected by over 30% from early March peak of around 655, under performing the broader market quite significantly. *Looking at the technical chart, Axis Bank has strong support around 465-445 zone and its in the C Wave in monthly EW, which should be respected by the market unless we heard more about such unexpected fresh slippages. Near term target may be around 510-535.* *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (Based on stand alone TTM & estimated forward EPS) *Present median valuation of Axis Bank may be aro
[www.niftyviews.com:23491] Fwd: HDFC: Is Q2FY16 NII Concern Overdone ?
Forwarded Message Subject:HDFC: Is Q2FY16 NII Concern Overdone ? Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2015 08:31:49 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *After recent correction, 1205-1190 might be a very good demand zone * Q2 PAT at Rs.1605 Cr (including one time dividend income of Rs.425 cr) was slightly below street estimates (QOQ/YOY at 1361/1358) Q2 EPS at 9.93 (diluted) against consensus of 10.34 and QOQ/YOY at 8.56/8.58 *CMP: 1221* *Buy: 1205-1190* *TGT: 1254-1313-1350 (1-3M)* *TGT: 1375-1400 & 1500-1610 (12-24M)* *TSL<1175* Note: Consecutive closing below 1175 for any reason, HDFC can fall up to 1144-1115-1090 & 1050 area where one can again accumulate it for better investment buying average. *Some key takeaways & rationale:* Although Q2FY16 result of HDFC was slightly below street estimates it was not great in the sense that NII was flat at +2 % sequentially (QOQ) and rose by only 7% YOY. Thus Q2 spreads was below consensus and that spooked the scrip which was already rallied by more than 20% for expectation of a good result from late Aug low (1092) to recent result day high of around 1350. As par management, lower NII is mainly due to transmission of lower interest rates by RBI on its share holder's fund (Rs.34000 cr); i.e. it has earned comparatively lower reverse repo which affects its NII by 125 bps. Actually, on YOY basis, NII was slightly improved from 2.29% to 2.32% on gross operating basis. HDFC is confident of maintaining NII volume on the back of loan growth despite lower spreads. Looking ahead, HDFC may see stronger loan & housing demand on the back of expected economic recovery, favorable demography, smart city theme, affordable housing for all and 7-th pay commission induced liquidity in our country. But real estate rules & regulations also need to be more simple (ease of doing business) !! Also analysts were not so convinced about drop in Q2 NII of HDFC and feel that due to change in product mix, the same will unlikely to improve in future. Street is also apprehended about fall in other fee income as HDFC has not made any non-subsidiary investment in the last few years. Going forward, deleveraging of insurance arms & other subsidiaries might be some of the triggers for HDFC apart from its relatively stable asset quality. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (on stand alone TTM & projected EPS basis) *Present median valuation of HDFC may be around: 1220 (FY:15/TTM)* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 1330-1435-1565 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HDFC39.15 196.3 30 1199.94 1224.47 1212.21 1225.94 1276.56 HDFC46.75 216.95 30 1311.25 1338.05 1324.65 1225.94 1276.56 HDFC54.55 240.75 30 1416.42 1445.37 1430.90 1225.94 1276.56 HDFC64.95 265.85 30 1545.56 1577.14 1561.35 1225.94 1276.56 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gHiBHnSBJUk/VjlxzY6bThI/EuA/K4HflnWJF78/s1600/HDFC-03-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oJmVvgYCLYk/Vjlx1oU0lII/EuI/3Ub1nu5qS28/s1600/HDFC-FIBB-03-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_La0Ghg_udw/Vjlx3tSV6uI/EuQ/jCHsC1D5lmw/s1600/HDFC-WK-03-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-S5mBNkzFMd4/Vjlx5TMYKUI/EuY/wlOPA8VUkqo/s1600/HDFC-PATTERN-03-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cphkAOtgiGY/Vjlx7aKA17I/Eug/2gdE66bSwjY/s1600/HDFC-TL-03-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TW4BJhEBtCM/Vjlx9VpCj1I/AAAAEuo/pbKHjHNqJlQ/s1600/HDFC-EW-03-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23501] Fwd: Tata Steel: Worst Is Over ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Tata Steel: Worst Is Over ? Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2015 09:08:43 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Q2FY16 result beats estimates helped by other income 223-210 might be good accumulation zone for 280-315 in the near term *CMP: 225* * * *Buy around: 223-213-210* *TGT: 245-262-280 (1-3M)* ** *TGT: 300-315 & 350-388 (12-24M)* *TSL< 205 * *Note: Consecutive closing below 205 for any reason, TS can fall up to 199-195, which is again a good buying zone with TSL<185. Sustain below 185, TS may further fall to 175-155 zone. For strength, TS needs to trade above 223-228 for an immediate target of 245 and above. * *Some key takeaways & rationale: * Standalone Q2FY16 PAT at Rs.2523 cr against expectations of 2310; QOQ-1249; YOY-2476. OP at Rs.1862 cr with OPM at 19.5% against estimate of 1655 with 18.8%. Q2 EPS at 25.53 against QOQ-12.41 & YOY-25.04 Consolidated Q2FY16 PAT at Rs.1529 cr against consensus of 851; QOQ-763; YOY-1254. Q2 consolidated EPS at 15.31 against QOQ-7.42 & YOY-12.46 OP at Rs.1830 cr down nearly 50% YOY with OPM at 6.2% (down by 4%). *Although as par company's release, OPM from operations before exceptional items & tax is around Rs.2349 cr against QOQ-1092 & YOY-1302. * In Q2, other income of TS stood at around Rs.2938 cr against Rs.321 cr YOY. This OI includes gain of Rs.2808 cr on sale of quoted investments. In September'15, TS sold around 3.80 lacs Tata Motors shares to Tata Sons for Rs.1250 cr through an off-market transactions @330 per share. *This other income and selling of quoted investments are already known factors as par the company's strategy to sell non-core assets to prune its massive balance sheet debts (Rs.80903 cr as on Q2FY16). * *In Q2, TS reduced its debt by Rs.2903 cr (pre-payment) and consolidated finance costs dropped by almost 15% (YOY).* Clearly, TS's EU operations hurt the company although there is some apparent silver lining in its domestic operations. EU operation was hurt by sharp deterioration in conditions there, specially in UK amid strong currency (GBP). Also there was sharp increase in imports from China/CIS/SAFTA countries amid their respective weaker currency, So, in that sense, TS may be a victim of global currency war & cross currency headwinds. UK is another country in G-6, which was supposed to lift off soon or after Fed. But yesterday's BOE statement is more dovish than the market thought and it seems that BOE will only act after the Fed move. Thus, we may see downward pressure in GBP in the near term and that may also help TS to some extent. Domestic operations was helped by better value added product mix, specially in automobiles steel sector. But relatively strong INR and cheap imports from China & other FTA countries like Japan & Korea are hurting India operations to some extent amid subdued manufacturing activity. Overall slow demand is also neutralizing the impact of higher import duty for steel industry in India. Looking ahead, the management of TS is hopeful that various reform policies undertaken by our Govt will manifest gradually in the underlying domestic steel demand over the next few years; i.e. they are also expecting overall economic recovery and infra boom by FY:17-18. Also, China and other global slow down fears may be bottoming out and we may see better demand/supply metrics in the days ahead and worst may be over for steel industry, including Tata Steel. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (standalone TTM & FWD EPS) *Present median valuation of Tata Steel may be around: 275 (FY:15/TTM)* * * *Projected fair valuations might be around: 295-315-335 (FY:16-18/FWD)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA TATASTEEL 55.39 686.39 5 287.84 258.26 273.05 299.16 240.83 TATASTEEL 62.55 730.55 5 305.88 274.44 290.16 299.16 240.83 TATASTEEL 71.55 778.55 5 327.15 293.53 310.34 299.16 240.83 TATASTEEL 81.05 828.95 5 348.19 312.40 330.30 299.16 240.83 *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VEG6qcSJlLk/VjwbHrrPjYI/EwA/WbtIxPns2dw/s1600/TS-05-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wIflIb9rNwY/VjwbIxRR6bI/EwI/XwbHIAls1zc/s1600/TS-FIBB-05-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rD4cHWQgdec/VjwbKkoSdPI/EwQ/JK-dKwkQfYU/s1600/TS-WK-05-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1ymLYfaV1XY/VjwbLtLbcUI/EwY/9RYXQN9g_kI/s1600/TS-PATTERN-05-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YERKDqWRx-U/VjwbP61nC5I/Ewg/1h4NL-cRi1o/s1600/TS-TL-RSI-05-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Va6ycCQ3Ktw/VjwbSvMewJI/Ewo/q6a8cqdfmJA/s1600/TS-TL-05-22-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh
[www.niftyviews.com:23468] Fwd: Wipro: Trying Hard To Get Back In Growth Trajectory----
Forwarded Message Subject:Wipro: Trying Hard To Get Back In Growth Trajectory Date: Fri, 30 Oct 2015 07:39:51 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Q2FY16 result was largely in line with street estimates * *But guidance was below market expectations (muted Q3 !!)* Q2 PAT at Rs.2240 cr, up by 7% -YOY; (estimate at 2232; QOQ-2203; YOY- 2098) Q2 EPS at 9.08 (consensus at 9.09; QOQ-8.89; YOY-8.45) (All consolidated figures) *CMP: 575* * * *Buy either on sustained breakout above 585 or in dips around 565-550* * * *TGT:585-605-625-671 (1-12M)* * * *TGT: 750-850 (24M)* * * *TSL<540* Note: Consecutive closing below 540 for any reason, Wipro can fall up to 528-501 & 485-471 zone, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. *Some key takeaways & rationale: * Wipro reported somewhat tepid Q2FY16 result, although largely in line with analysts median expectations. But the management guided only 1.5% sequential growth in Q3 against street expectations of around 3% on an average (in constant currency). The company gave a tepid forecast in sales growth for Q3 owing to temporary shut down at clients in US/EU during the Dec holiday season there (Christmas & New Year). As one of the top client (ENU client ??) of Wipro is in some type of stress, it expects growth to pick up in Q1FY17 onwards As Business Today puts in, for the last few years, Wipro is still middling along with its growth at single digit and its very important for the company to focus on long term growth strategy rather than short term quarterly focus. No doubt, Wipro is a big IT player and this FY, its expected to cross the milestone of Rs.5 cr revenue with plus 20% margins. But going by the trends, its look very difficult for the company to achieve the promised double digit growth. Historically, Wipro's strength was in telecom & outsourced R But both these verticals were badly affected in US/EU after 2008 financial crisis. Wipro has also built one of the largest vertical in Oil & Gas (ENU), but with collapse of energy prices, it was more affected than its peers because of relatively high exposoure. But, BFSI, health care & life sciences are recent success story for Wipro with revenue of around $1 bln. Also IMS services are growing at decent momentum. The present CEO (T.K.Kurien) has done a great job for the last five years to drive the company in the right direction. But the management seems to be not so aggressive like his peers and lacks some vision in the recent emergence of new digital automation technology like AI, Cloud etc. Wipro has been little slower than its peers to adapt new technology, start ups & related acquisitions than its peers and that is getting reflected in its growth. Also, it does not has the balance sheet strength like Infy (zero debt and huge cash). But Wipro is changing fast and bought a TCS veteran (AAN-A.A. Neemuchiwala) in its top management.This may be an indication that Azim Premji (Founder of Wipro) is shifting to top gear to accelerate growth. Another factor was that Wipro is unable to win more contracts from its existing clients, may be because of legacy issues of conservative pricing. But, recently Wipro has won a large 5 years IT contract in a Norway retailer. Wipro is taking various measures under AAN to revive growth and hopefully, some result will be visible by FY-16. The company is very optimistic about growth in ENU as energy prices began to bottoming out in the coming quarters and oil majors should expand their budget. In Q2, some top clients of Wipro had cut their IT budget amid global slow down. Its OPM also affected by 0.3% to 20.7% because of wage hikes for its employees. As par reports, all the IT companies are preparing for next wave of digital technology and also restructuring the back up reserve bench with heavy spending on external tech consultants and Wipro is one of them. The company is planning to train 1 individuals on digital technologies over the next few months. TCS is also planning to train 10 personnel for this with a fresh hiring target of 75000 by FY-16 !! As par various analysts, we may see the result of such huge investment in next two-three years. Wipro is also digitizing personal experience of its EaaS service (digital economy) with Oracle's cloud based platforms. Wipro has also strengthened its digital presence by its recent acquisition of "Designit" and it another division is engaged in 12 digital projects (Cognitive Intelligence-CI Platform). Wipro is certainly trying its best to adapt itself with the fast changing digital technology "By Applying Thought" & management's cautious warning about tepid growth in the short term might be an opportunity for a good entry in the stock, which is among the top five IT companie
[www.niftyviews.com:23487] Fwd: L: The Indian Caterpillar; Cuts Its Guidance & Order Inflow For FY-16
Forwarded Message Subject: L: The Indian Caterpillar; Cuts Its Guidance & Order Inflow For FY-16 Date: Tue, 3 Nov 2015 08:43:58 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Q2FY16 consolidated PAT at Rs.686 cr (gross 996- exceptional 310) * *down 20% YOY(Estimate at 944)* Q2 EPS at 7.34 (consensus at 10.99; QOQ-6.48) The company slashed its FY-16 order & revenue guidance to 6% & 12.5% from 15% earlier !! *CMP: 1389* * * *Buy: 1350-1325-1300* * * *TGT: 1425-1510 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 1575-1627-1676 & 1825-1895 (12-24M)* * * *TSL< 1285* Note: For LT, technically, 1335 is a strong support area and the zone around 1350-1300 should attract good demands for the stock. Consecutive closing below 1285 zone for any reason, LT can further fall to 1250-1225-1198 area, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buy average. *Some key takeaways & rationale:* As we all know, Q2FY16 result of LT was below street estimates and further the management disappoints the market with very tepid and slashed down guidance for expected order inflow & revenue for the the rest of the FY-16. As par the company, lower commodity prices and weakening currency has been constraining growth prospectus and hurting business and it may take further time for healthy pick-up in business opportunities. Investment momentum in our domestic economy has not picked up sufficiently leading to order inflow and many projects in Middle East are currently under review due to low oil prices. After the announcement of the result, the stock tanked around 7% and from mid July peak, LT has already corrected by over 25% under performing the broader market. This is not very surprising, given the soft numbers of order inflows in Q1FY16 and the stock may be already discounted to a great extent, going by the time & price action of the same. Analysts are somewhere divided but if we take an average of their 12M TP estimates, it may comes to around 1580 amid various ratings. Some analysts are also very conservative of LT's own guidance and feel that the management is taking over cautious stance in order to prune the market estimates and going forward, we may see above estimate numbers from LT as well. In Q2, LT's EBITDA was mainly affected by higher than estimated depreciation and interest costs. Looking ahead, disinvestment of some of LT's assets and IT subsidiary (L Infotech) listing will be positive for it (balance sheet deleverage). Being an Indian "Caterpillar", its a preferred choice of domestic economic and infra growth story. Although, there has been delays in order awarding side, expected gradual recovery in capex cycle and PMO/Govt's active intervention to resolve the stalled projects issue may change the landscape for LT. But the big question is when and how fast this recovery will happen and for that market will keenly watch the H2FY16 numbers & guidance of LT, being the proxy for corporate India. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* (Stand alone TTM & Projected EPS) *Present median valuation of LT may be around: 1365 (FY:15/TTM)* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 1485-1650-1810 (FY:16-18) * SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA LT 53.88 398.31 22 1388.78 1327.81 1358.29 1627.1 1487.37 LT 63.95 440.15 22 1513.00 1446.58 1479.79 1627.1 1487.37 LT 78.55 486.45 22 1676.84 1603.22 1640.03 1627.1 1487.37 LT 94.45 537.75 22 1838.74 1758.01 1798.37 1627.1 1487.37 *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JtMkiVxdfBM/Vjgjiqhl_ZI/EtA/KwMNST4ea3M/s1600/LT-WK-02-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-PV7k2_fVbGo/VjgjkId_IpI/EtI/B2THDZif_1g/s1600/LT-FIBB-02-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2Qg57pj6qGA/Vjgjl42cruI/EtQ/951Rflb9sos/s1600/LT-WK-MA-02-11-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--90dCEQIqAY/VjgjoTSuOuI/EtY/dLiTHNWTMxA/s1600/LT-TL-02-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VGUXuoryIko/VjgjqWem3zI/Etg/EmphB7a2hFs/s1600/LT-PATTERN-02-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ddK4NwfzzZE/VjgjsNUxV2I/Eto/6Us6GPaKRBc/s1600/LT-TL-ST-02-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
[www.niftyviews.com:23423] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Oct): Hope Of Chinese & Japanese Stimulus Or Something Else ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Oct): Hope Of Chinese & Japanese Stimulus Or Something Else ? Date: Mon, 19 Oct 2015 07:45:24 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *At least two/three consecutive closing above 8250 is required for 8435-8675; * *Otherwise Expect 8150-8000 zone again* * * Trading Levels: SGX NF: 8265 (CMP) NSE NF: 8262 (LTP) SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 82908320-3408380-405* 8435-515 8585-6008625-675* <8270 Weak < 82708240-2048150-105* 8059-8000 7977-9107875-815>8290 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 829083408405* 851586008675* <8270 Weak < 827082048105* 800079107815>8290 After a day of range bound trading, NF rallied smartly in the last one hour on Friday amid hope of more China & Japan stimulus/QE. China will publish its official GDP & IIP data on Monday morning and street expectation is around 6.8% & 6% respectively. For GDP, although 6.5% may be acceptable by the Chinese officials, anything below 6.7% will intensified call for more stimulus and we may see 0.50% rate cut by PBOC shortly. As par comments of China premier "As long as employment remains adequate, people's income grows and the overall economic environment continuously improves, GDP a little higher or lower than 7% is acceptable". On Oct'30, there will be BOJ policy meetings and market will keenly watch it for more monetary stimulus. stance as par recent comment of BOJ that they are ready to do more QE, if economic condition so warranted. In US, we can see some "Gov. Shut Down" drama in the coming days, which may affect USD. Back to home, we have RIL Q2 result which is undoubtedly above street estimates and may also help to pop up the market. But, there will be host of other results for different blue chips in this week and that's may keep the market volatile. FY-17 budget exercise already began; although its too early, one can hope for a true "dream budget" this time. Apart from ongoing Bihar election result (Nov-1'st Wk) and its likely impact on key reform bill implementations/passage in RS, all eyes will be on RBI's monetary policy on Nov also. Although, there is virtually no hope for another rate cut by RBI this time, some tweaking may happen in the form of CRR/SLR/MSF window to boost up festival loan demand (another "Diwali Gift" to the nation even before policy date ??) and to address the liquidity concern of the PSBS. As par trade data on last Friday, India's export declined sharply which may not be a good news for "Make In India" theme. Although other macros including IIP may be an early indication of a nascent recovery, there is a lot more which has to be done in reality. Overall, technically NF need to sustain over 8250 zone for at least two/three days for confirmation of further rally and in that scenario, the present 3-rd wave (impulsive) in daily chart, may take us to an extended target of around 8435 area before Bihar election result. If Bihar election result is positive for BJP, then NF can scale up to 8675 by Dec'15. **Note: Just now China's GDP came at 6.9% and IIP at 5.7% (over all impact may be slightly positive to neutral as it undermines China slow down story but also diminished instant rate cut/more stimulus by PBOC to some extent. *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-u3Y6iny3ktk/ViRNZ_pwG_I/EeI/gQGi0EnrY9M/s1600/NF-16-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LtEuMC9kRsA/ViRNbjBGe8I/EeQ/6VrNy6wFDFk/s1600/NF-FIBB-16-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D2sJ_waOZUM/ViRNfKm87YI/EeY/pU_LrHW9Hh0/s1600/NF-MA-16-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-e5S4dOnCQkk/ViRNhjkLhnI/Eeg/id3b5LUmIzg/s1600/NF-TL-16-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IDSwac_Brg4/ViRNjb810gI/Eeo/IqEHg9huOr4/s1600/NF-PATTERN-16-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cewk9dlmZh0/ViRNoCeVvcI/Eew/HYU5kR
[www.niftyviews.com:23390] Fwd: Hindustan Uniliver: Ahead Of Result
Forwarded Message Subject:Hindustan Uniliver: Ahead Of Result Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2015 08:34:08 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Has To Sustain Over 835-850 For Target Of 900-950 In The Near Term* Analysts are expecting PAT around Rs.1038 cr, up by 5% (YOY) & down by 2.5% (QOQ) with QEPS around 4.80 * * *CMP: 813* * * *Buy on dips: 800-780* * * *TGT: 835-850 (T+5)* * * *TGT: 878-900-950 (6M)* * * *TGT: 980-1035-1065 (12-24M)* *TSL< 770* Note: Consecutive closing below 770-760 zone for any reason, HUL may fall up to 742-715-700-677-649-623 area, where it can be again accumulated for investment purpose. *Some Key Takeaways: * Market is expecting tepid earning for HUL in Q2 due to higher taxation, poor volume growth and steep price cuts in some of its key products recently (soaps, detergents, shampoo). But lower input costs, thanks to depressed commodity prices will be helpful for it to expand its operating margin. However, higher spending in advertising & promotions may partially offset the lower input costs (raw materials) and over all the Q2FY16 result is expected to be subdued. Management commentary for demand outlook may be vital for rural India, considering the erratic rains this year. Although, for Q2, we may see tepid rural growth, there may be modest uptick in urban demand due to growing acceptance of its premium brands, specially in personal care segment. Looking ahead, HUL may benefit from expected demand recovery in rural & semi urban area. It has excellent product innovations, pan India marketing & distribution strength, strong recall brand along with aggressive pricing & marketing strategy to stay ahead of competitors. HUL is giving now more thrusts on personal care products as it contributes almost 50% of its EBIT and is also planning to go big on food & beverages business. Recently, HUL also sold one of its subsidiary, Modern Bakery as part of its strategy to exit non-core business. Overall, for any result oriented volatility in HUL, investors may take the opportunity to accumulate it for an ideal portfolio stock being a proxy for rural & semi urban India. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* *Present median valuation of HUL may be around: 865(FY:15)* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 905-950-1035 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HINDUNILVR 19.95 17.21 45 868.77 854.83 861.80 840.73 813.97 HINDUNILVR 21.919.55 45 910.24 895.64 902.94 840.73 813.97 HINDUNILVR 24.35 22.25 45 959.81 944.41 952.11 840.73 813.97 HINDUNILVR 28.625.35 45 1040.20 1023.51 1031.86 840.73 813.97 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnsKR6Z-oyM/Vh3Dwi9D-kI/EVU/cymyOlY9iX8/s1600/HUL-13-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7X3EouwY8Ao/Vh3DymxccUI/EVc/UNNL_bW9g6w/s1600/HUL-FIBB-13-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EAu-TH9K2qc/Vh3D1c2J6GI/EVk/nEtoEBTZIIs/s1600/HUL-WK-13-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NURj2wQrDgk/Vh3D4KfOXYI/EVs/GrvldFkv81c/s1600/HUL-PATTERN-13-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YC5dorKrHpM/Vh3D7mwDcZI/EV0/jWPWGrWWfyc/s1600/HUL-TL-13-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WO20jFfYSxk/Vh3EAS0p1uI/EV8/7Kmbu58yR9I/s1600/HUL-PATTERN-LT-13-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23397] Fwd: DCB Bank:From "Multibagger" to "muitibegger" ?? Is Expansion Concern Overdone ?
Forwarded Message Subject: DCB Bank:From "Multibagger" to "muitibegger" ?? Is Expansion Concern Overdone ? Date: Fri, 16 Oct 2015 09:27:51 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com 90-70 Might Be Proved As A Good Demand Zone It may be another case of "buying good business in distress or in an unusual conditions" And can be a M target also in future CMP: 92 Buy: 90-70 TGT: 122-135 (5-30 days) TGT: 150-175 (12-24M) TSL<60 Note:Consecutive closing below 60 for any reason, DCB may further crash to 50-35 area, where it can be again accumulated for investment purpose & better buying averages. *Rationale:* Apart from below street estimate Q2FY16 result to some extent, we all know the reasons behind DCB's massive fall. Post result on Tuesday evening, the management hinted that the bank is going to add around 150 branches by next one year taking the total branches to around 310. Consequently the capex and incremental headcounts (salary costs for new employees) may affect the bottom line of the bank substantially for FY:16-18 and one can expect return (profit) from those expanded branches only from FY:20-22. Previously, the bank guided for 25-30 branches expansion per year. As a result, almost all the analysts who were quite bullish on DCB bank, almost turned back and immediately downgraded it for an average target of 90 citing lower ROE for this sudden expansion cost and the stock reached almost there in two days from 140 level !! Now, on the part of the management, its nothing wrong to foresee the likely competition from numerous small & payment banks who got licenses from RBI recently and some of them are backed by major corporate groups, start ups flush with funds. The bank may also undertake the guided expansions of "brick & mortar" branches in future to combat the growing competition as retail & SME lending is its major business beside some corporate lending. Also, the proposed expansion in tire 2 to tier 6 cities will help it improve its CASA and priority sector lending. The bank also managed its deteriorating NPA situation few years ago quite well and now in a comfortable position after the new management took charge. Q2FY16 PAT fall by 10% (YOY) primarily due to sharp jump in provisions and lower treasury income. The DCB management also sees lower NIM high competition and price wars in all products & segments, priority sector lending and proposed move by RBI towards lower base rate to be calculated on marginal costs of funds. DCB is also foraying actively in digital banking and there may be no comparison between a full fledged bank and a no-frill bank (like payment bank). But all the above news might be already discounted by the market to a great extent going by the recent price action of the scrip. If DCB feels the heat for growing competition from existing as well as proposed banks (small or payment entities), then it may be also applicable for other small banks (private or PSU). Looking ahead, India may not be the place for so much "Banks" here and there as full banking operation is not so easy, considering the huge capital requirement of it and Basel-III norms beside question of viability. Thus, consolidation is bound to happen in the banking space (private as well as PSU) and only major groups having very deep pocket will survive in this game. We might see some M in the banking space for small banks like DCB and others in the coming days. Perhaps RBI is also creating a parallel set of banks for future by giving licenses for partial banking to some major groups, considering the huge stressed assets in our banking system, specially in PSBS. As par BG metrics & current market trend, fair valuation of DCB might be (based on previous EPS forecast prior to the new guidance):* Present median value: 120 (FY-15) Projected fair value: 135-145-155 (FY:16-18) * New guidance to be updated shortly, for the proposed expansion. *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A65kZPDtLM8/ViBy6WmUOkI/EYc/0z3e0KNMmOg/s1600/DCB-WK-15-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mRuFVFHhFnM/ViBy8ho-WtI/EYk/bWvJo9wM6xc/s1600/DCB-FIBB-15-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XBp85L50iOc/ViBy_MS_eeI/EYs/AZvkyHtUz0M/s1600/DCB-WK-MA-15-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dQugWcl83VE/ViBzBOQcmRI/EY0/dbKMw1EQYJw/s1600/DCB-PATTERN-15-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sAtXmgCNYYE/ViBzDurDuPI/EY8/Uy7-DPsFofw/s1600/DCB-TL-15-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WRo87UVG9sc/ViBzF4DndVI/EZE/sIGotNArlOI/s1600/DCB-TL-LT-15-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, A
[www.niftyviews.com:23434] Fwd: HCL Tech: Sep'15 QTR Result Is Largely In Line With Revised Street Estimates
Forwarded Message Subject: HCL Tech: Sep'15 QTR Result Is Largely In Line With Revised Street Estimates Date: Tue, 20 Oct 2015 09:48:31 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect some fireworks only above 875 up to 935-990 * Quarterly PAT came around Rs.1726 cr against revised median estimate of Rs.1723 cr and EPS at 9.99 (Exp 9.80) vs 10.21 (QOQ) & 12.00 (YOY) *Is the management's profit warning action overdone ?* *CMP: 858* * * *Either buy on breakout above 866-875 or in dips around 830-811-800* * * *TGT: 905-921-935 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 990-1045 & 1165-1280 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<790* Note: Consecutive closing below 790 for any reason, HCL can fall up to 760-740-725-700 levels, where it can be again accumulated for better investment buying average. Sep'15 QTR result published yesterday by HCL was by and large in line with revised street estimates after management's guidance warning last month. As expected QTR numbers is very weak and PAT fall by 8% due to cross currency headwinds and one time provision made to compensate for loss of revenue from a particular large client. Although the result showed that the infrastructure management services (IMS) is a drag for the company, but its core manufacturing clients added more projects. IMS contribute nearly 23% of the revenue of HCL. The other business verticals of HCL also reported slower sequential growth of under 1% on QOQ basis (financial services, manufacturing, retail & telecom together comprises of around 77% of total revenue of HCL) The management is confident about its large order book and expected for the revenue reflection of the same from Jan'16 on wards and is not emphasizing too much on short term QOQ numbers. The management has pointed out the longer term trailing 12 month numbers (TTM), where the above verticals has shown good growth as a large multiyear order takes time to reflect in revenue stream. Analysts are pointing out that this is the third consecutive earning downgrade for HCL. There is immense competition in IMS from other tier-1 players, HCL has somewhat weak software applications portfolio, which reflects in multi-year under performance and the company lags competition in capturing digital opportunity (artificial intelligence-AI, automation etc). But, all the above negative news for HCL may be already discounted by the market going by the time & price action of the scrip. Technically, 800 zone should hold for HCL, unless we hear some more negative news or further earning downgrades/weak guidance from the management. Looking ahead, apart from the export revenue, all major IT companies may be benefited immensely from our own domestic opportunity (Digital India theme) in the coming days and HCL might also be one of them. HCL is also the the process of acquiring a Bangalore based engineering services firm "Concept to Sillicon System" (C2SiS) specializes in system-on-chip and design services and it has large Fortune-100/500 client base. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* * * *Present median valuation of HCL may be around: 870 (FY:15) **Projected fair valuations might be around : 905-990-1070 (FY:16-18) * SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HCLTECH 43.17 111.97 20 884.01 856.66 870.34 905.12 849.98 HCLTECH 46.55 125.55 20 917.97 889.57 903.77 905.12 849.98 HCLTECH 55.75 140.75 20 1004.59 973.51 989.05 905.12 849.98 830 HCLTECH 65.15 156.25 20 1085.99 1052.39 1069.19 905.12 849.98 830 Analytical Charts: <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-msQA_So-2Ko/ViW89P03VpI/EfQ/mBZN4erQlvM/s1600/HCL-16-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JtFiVZyJjYI/ViW8-hgHLII/EfY/gWxFtLiD27g/s1600/HCL-FIBB-16-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QF9MZ8Px--U/ViW9A9eDyRI/Efg/kGXViBeB_7E/s1600/HCL-PATTERN-16-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SBwx-9ugoNw/ViW9EegKrJI/Efo/aXrus7rtvOo/s1600/HCL-WK-16-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-460gcFS8tZo/ViW9F9L2kPI/Efw/6oWIEzu9R-g/s1600/HCL-PATTERN-LT-16-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dyrux0riyVI/ViW9H0FTlWI/AAAAEf4/4XuSCT_dV8o/s1600/HCL-TL-16-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity
[www.niftyviews.com:23436] Fwd: Hero Moto Corp: Q2FY16 Result Is Slightly Better Than Street Estimates
Forwarded Message Subject: Hero Moto Corp: Q2FY16 Result Is Slightly Better Than Street Estimates Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2015 09:05:00 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Only Sustaining Above 2630-2650, Expect Some Fireworks Up to 2800-3000* Q2 PAT at Rs.772 Cr, up by 1.1% YOY (median estimate 717 cr) Q2 EPS at 38.66 against street estimates of 35.65 *CMP:2606* *Buy: 2600-2580* *TGT: 2650-2678-2705-2750-2795 (T+5)* *TGT: 2920-3030-3165-3275 & 3500-4300 (1-12 & 24M)* *TSL<2550* Note: Consecutive closing below 2550 for any reason, HMC can fall up to 2497-2435, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average. *Some key takeaways:* Q2FY16 result of HMC published yesterday after market hours was slightly above street expectations. Although net sales declined by 1.72% YOY (against expectation of -6.96%),EBITDA/bottom line was improved by higher realisations per unit aided by reduced input costs and better internal cost control measures (LEAP). As a result, realisations per unit & EBITDA improved by 5.6% and 15.9% (YOY). Weak rural demand amid fragile rural economy and uneven monsoon in some parts of the country this year might be one of the reason for falling sales in its motorcycle segment. Also, in urban area, there are more preferences towards light weight scooter/scooty and premium segment of bikes and competitors of HMC has some edge on it.Rural sales contribute almost 50% of HMC's revenue. In the urban scooter market to compete with its rival Honda, HMC has brought in two new models, which are completely been developed in-house. The company is hopeful to gain further overall domestic market share from its present 52% on the back of its new models and likely increased demand for the ongoing festival season. Its also recently launched Splendor Pro & Plus(manual & self-start feature) at reasonable & competitive price with convenience & comfort for a Splendor ride. The company has also inaugurated its first overseas manufacturing facility in Columbia and is very hopeful for its global expansion drive in the coming days. Looking ahead, analysts are quite hopeful of sustained margin expansion for HMC due to lower input/commodity prices, better product mix and internal cost reduction programme.But new launches and its foray in to the premium segment may hold the keys. Apart form festival demand, implementation of 7-th pay commissions may also increase the demand for both 4 & 2 wheelers significantly and all the major auto companies, including HMC may be a beneficiary of that also. HMC has also strengthened its R ecosystem both ingeniously and by partnering several partners overseas in the last one year after separation from Honda. It may also diversify into defence sector in future. *As par BG metrics & current market parameters:* *Present median valuation of HMC may be: 2650 (FY:15)* *Projected median valuations might be: 2900-3100-3400 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA HEROMOTOCO 129.28 327.58 21 2640.14 2631.15 2635.65 2567.46 2550.01 HEROMOTOCO 155.15 384.9 21 2892.26 2882.41 2887.34 2567.46 2550.01 HEROMOTOCO 178.5 455.25 21 3102.28 3091.72 3097.00 2567.46 2550.01 HEROMOTOCO 215.5 535.15 21 3408.67 3397.07 3402.87 2567.46 2550.01 *Analytical Charts: * <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MfZMZeq4OEk/VicCaJ3cxUI/EgU/KNxc-d3i13I/s1600/HMC-20-20-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UMAQBXV6drs/VicCbhkaibI/Egc/t7vIe2VjUt0/s1600/HMC-FIBB-20-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-68v5YRFBk24/VicCdr4ao1I/Egk/sKSYl_7E1uY/s1600/HMC-WK-20-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IErtTku39M8/VicCfV2lh-I/Egs/_C0lh4TU5NQ/s1600/HMC-PATTERN-20-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RQ2azJz34Sk/VicChA5fV4I/Eg0/Hkbs6nSoT6E/s1600/HMC-TL-20-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JENeQ6LUSrk/VicCjhL3b6I/AAAAEg8/XT_Qn-Ozrgo/s1600/HMC-TL-RSI-20-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinio
[www.niftyviews.com:23409] Fwd: Reliance Industries: Q2FY16 Result Above Street Estimates Amid Record Quarterly Profit & GRM
Forwarded Message Subject: Reliance Industries: Q2FY16 Result Above Street Estimates Amid Record Quarterly Profit & GRM Date: Sat, 17 Oct 2015 17:12:33 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Sustaining above 920-945 expect 1030-1070* *Q2 PAT at Rs.6720 cr (12.5% growth YOY), GRM at $10.60 * *and EPS at 21.95 (estimate 18.75)* CMP: 912 Buy either break out above 920-945 or in dips around 900-870 : TGT: 980-1030-1070 (T+5/30) TGT: 1150-1300-1450 & 2150 (12-24 & 36 M) TSL< 840 Note: Time & price action suggests that consecutive closing below 840 for any reason, RIL may fall to 817-793 zone, where it can be again accumulated for better investment buying average. *Rationale:* Q2 result of RIL published yesterday after market hours is above market estimates in nearly all fronts. Record quarterly PAT is supported by sharp rise in GRM, optimal utilization of its petro chem assets (value chain & prudent product mix) and advantageous crude oil price along with relatively strong global demand for fuel. It appears that massive investments for the last few years (nearly $16 bn) in its petrochem & refining complex and world class technology is showing the desired result and analysts are also expecting a sequential higher GRM of around 12-14 in the coming years and nearly 47% drive in EPS (FY:15-18). Some negative part of the Q2 result is 34% decline in gross revenue but that is not at all unexpected, because there is also a 51% decline in bench mark Brent oil price (YOY), which also affected its exports from India. But at the same time, Jamnagar refinery is also running at nearly 110% utilization level !! Thus its a story of strong refining business for RIL in Q2. Now, post analysts concall will add more light on it. Reliance Retail is also growing in a modest way as par revenue & PBITD is concerned and expanding rapidly across India (now nearly 2857 active stores across 250 cities/towns). On the telecom front, R-JIO commercial service may likely launch on 28-th Dec (anniversary of Dhiru Bhai Ambani) and on that day we may even see "dramatic handshakes between the two brothers also"!! (That may be the one of the reason RCOM & other ADAG group of shares are in demand now !!). Looking ahead, apart from its robust petrochem & refinery core business, all eyes will be on RIL's telecom business potential. There is a strong market buzz that R-JIO's ARPU may beat the average market estimates due to various strategies & services planned by it (that's why the scrip touched 1070 level in late July). But at the same time, analysts are also skeptical about the likely overhang of its telecom business on its core (EPR) business as massive investments is done on R-JIO. Telecom business (nearly Rs. 10 cr) may start to show result after 3-5 years and for that time, RIL's core EPR business will match the negative cash flow for R-JIO. Although there is no concern on data service amid massive mobile & other data service opportunities (digital India theme), challenges may be in the single digit ROE of telecom industries, some regulatory concern, tower infrastructure in urban areas (growing oppositions among local residents for radiation fear), 4G voice calling technology on LTE and mass transmission of 4G calling devices from present 3G. As par reports, R-JIO/R-Retail will launch its own 4G-LTE smart phone by Nov'15 called LYF and is in pack with various other manufacturers also for internet based calls under 4G (HD voice & video). R-JIO is also in pack with RCOM for sharing the telecom spectrum across seven telecom circles, which will provide more bandwidth for R-JIO to provide high speed 4G network. The beta testing of the same will be started soon prior to commercial launching. In short, R-JIO may be the game changer in telecom & data services with its 4G-LTE high speed digital commerce media & payment services for about 300-500 pm and considering the deep pocket of RIL, other players may follow soon. In future, only big players may survive in the over congested telecom business and ROE will gradually improve for less competition. As par SOTP of Macquarie Research-June report, gross NAV of RIL is 1425 and after discounting for telecom (-285), net NAV/fair value of RIL is around 1140 (FY:16). But considering the big-bang launch of R-JIO in Dec and its various aggressive strategy to grab the market share in a short span of time along with robust EPR business (sequentially higher GRM with crude possibly in a stable range of 50-70 $ in FY-16), analysts might review their views on RIL and may re-rate the scrip. Also, there will be some concern on its legal battles from time to time in various forums unless its fully resolved & settled. But having said that, RIL & MDAG, being the largest pr
[www.niftyviews.com:23422] Fwd: Indusind Bank: Q2FY16 Is Largely In Line With Street Estimates
Forwarded Message
Subject:Indusind Bank: Q2FY16 Is Largely In Line With Street Estimates
Date: Sun, 18 Oct 2015 21:20:07 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
Q2 PAT at Rs.560 cr, up by 30% (YOY) against median street estimates of
Rs.558 cr
Reported Q2EPS 9.40 against consensus of 10.48 & Q1EPS 9.74
Expect fireworks in IIB only above 970-995 area for 1050-1150; otherwise
it will come down.
The bank may cuts its base rate "significantly" as par RBI's new
"marginal cost of funds" methodology shortly.
*CMP: 963*
*
*
*Sell: 980-990*
*
*
*TGT: 930*-901-878-835 (1-3M)*
*
*
*TSL>1005*
Note: Consecutive closing above 1005 for any reason, IIB may target
1050-1150 (1-12M) and investors/traders may buy back the stock in that
scenario; otherwise wait for dips around 901-878 to enter the stock
again (if it sustained below 930).
*
*
*Some key takeaways & rationale:*
Q2FY16 result of IIB is largely in line with market estimates and quite
excellent supported by higher NIM and other income (distribution fees,
treasury etc).
On NPA front, the bank has also done well, but it doubled its provision
(YOY) mainly on account of its newly acquired diamond & jewellery
financing business from RBS (loan portfolio of around Rs.4100 cr).
After the recent spate of fund rising through QIP & preferential
allotment for around Rs.5081 cr, IIB has reached the desired capital
adequacy ratio to around 16.52% and the bank may not raise any further
capital for the next three years. But it appears that the above capital
infusion has somehow dented its EPS in Q2 and the bank has to support it
with sequentially higher bottom line in the coming quarters.
The bank is also going big on digital banking and exploring various
opportunities to tie-up with a payment bank, including taking an equity
stake as this may improve its CASA ratio and online banking convenience.
Recently the bank has also ties up with TATA AIA Life Insurance to
distribute its insurance policy as previous agreement with Aviva ended.
It seems that Aviva fund performance was not so impressive either and
being one of the most trusted & respected group, "TATA" brand may help
its other income to grow sequentially higher in the days ahead.
IIB is also doing well in in CV segment, specially trucks amid lower
cost of fuels and improved demand scenario. Going ahead we may see
sequentially higher volume in CV-Taxi segment in the age of OLAS & UBERS
(Cabs).
The bank is also expanding its branches very fast. It opened 43 branches
during the last quarter and aimed to have 1000 pan-India branches by
FY-16 from its present 685 branches. Considering the likely competition
from new banking entrants (full & partial), all private banks may take
this path of expansion of retail reach and we should not fire only DCB
for this !!
IIB also emphasizing more on high margin retail lending and planning to
make it up to 50% from present level 0f 41% by FY:16.
IIB may be also looking to foray into direct stock broking business in
the future either by organic or inorganic way.
IIB off late are taking some risks by extending more corporate loans,
given the overall tepid economic recovery and average earnings are
sluggish, but higher fees income from this segment are helping its other
income a lot.
Overall, around 25% of IIB's loan book is comprised of some risky loans
such as loan against property (LAP), unsecured loan, exposoure to
microfinance, construction, commercial reality, real estate etc. Any
slow down in real estate may affect its NPA.
But having said that, almost all the banks carries such risks more or
less and due to "Smart City Theme" , "Housing For All" thrust by our
Govt, and expected 7-th pay commission induced liquidity, we may not see
significant slowdown in our reality market in the coming days.
Going ahead, Bandhan bank (new full banking entrant) may pose major
competition in retail sectors, SME & micro finances in the banking
industry and as par reports, Bandhan is on a poaching drive for key
branch personnel in various levels of other Banks to grab their retail
business shares, specially in rural & semi urban areas of NE India.
IIB may shortly announce for a suitable/significant cut in its lending
base rate/PLR ("Festival Dhamaka") followed by RBI repo rate cut last
month as it shifts to marginal cost of funds as suggested by the central
bank.
Presently, base rate of IIB is 10.85%, which is significantly higher
than its peers and it follows some hybrid model of calculation for its
base rate (average cost of funds + marginal cost of funds) and take MSF
window of RBI for its short term funding need.
No doubt, IIB is a bright spot in private banking space. But time &
price is the ultimate for any stock. Going by the pr
[www.niftyviews.com:23394] LIC Housing Fin: Ahead Of Q2FY16 Result
Forwarded Message Subject:LIC Housing Fin: Ahead Of Q2FY16 Result Date: Thu, 15 Oct 2015 07:46:00 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect 525-550 Only Sustaining Above 490-510, Otherwise Free Fall Up To 421-399 (Below 460)* Analysts are expecting Q2 PAT at around Rs.400.40 cr up by 17% (YOY) and QEPS at 7.85 *CMP: 482* *Buy : 478-467* *TGT:490-510-525 (T+5)* *TGT: 550-650-720 (1-24M) * *TSL<460 * Note: Consecutive closing below 460/450 for any reason, LHFL can fall up to 421-399-375 level, where it may be accumulated again for better investment buying average. *Some Key Takeaways:* Market is expecting somewhat steady growth in earnings due to sequentially lower cost of funds (better NIM) but might be pulled down to some extent for higher provisions. Housing finance companies (HFC), such as LHFL, HDFC rallied considerably since 29-th Sep (RBI policy date) because there was a proposal for reduction in risk weightage of lower value but well collateralised individual home loans (up to Rs.35-75 lacs) for the "affordable housing" theme /push by the Govt. This may translate for more home loans by the HFC(s) with their existing capital. Market will also keenly watch composition of LHFL's loan book which has increasing mix of developer's loan along with retail & LAP, trend of NIM, loan growth and asset quality (NPA). But considering the recent price action, the scrip is trading close to its vital resistance (supply) zone of 490-510 and only above estimate result and upbeat management commentary (guidance) will be able to break these technical hurdle for new high towards 550 in the coming days. LHFL is the 2-nd largest housing finance co in India and has wide distribution network with backing of a trusted PSU brand like LIC (which has around 40% stake in LHFL). It is also a strong contender of some form of Banking License by RBI in future. Looking ahead, with the "smart city theme" and "affordable housing for all" thrust by our Govt coupled with lower interest environment and 7-th pay commission induced liquidity, a HFC like LHFL should be one of the major beneficiary and investors may buy in dips taking the opportunity of any result oriented volatility. *As par BG metrics & current market trends:* *Present median valuation of LHFL may be around: 550 (FY:15)* * * *Projected fair valuations might be around: 600-655-710 (FY:16-18)* *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Oyg3UGyLVMw/Vh8I7PGau1I/EWg/X-B5DLp-ZKg/s1600/LHFL-14-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kPwsMkHOiGo/Vh8I9q8EYuI/EWo/erItwH7cbiY/s1600/LHFL-FIBB-14-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2p_jgc84Y9s/Vh8JADdbV8I/EWw/hw4aAL3dOKE/s1600/LHFL-WK-14-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nBhEcoqA184/Vh8JCkp_AZI/EW4/FRamuq7YJhM/s1600/LHFL-PATTERN-14-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9yDeyOp_nPw/Vh8JFZ6a2hI/EXA/8N7LrJNd3gk/s1600/LHFL-TL-14-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1SAZ1BKe0oU/Vh8JHyQ9sBI/AAAAEXI/rlqGOY9zq_A/s1600/LHFL-TL-LT-14-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23437] Fwd: Calls Performance: Success ratio 87%
Forwarded Message
Subject:Calls Performance: Success ratio 87%
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 2015 17:06:28 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To:
Hi,
Here is a summary of my calls generated wef 18/09/2015 to 01/10/2015 as
a TA in an advisory co here in Bangalore.
Total calls made was around 39 & in that, success ratio is around 87%
(for giving significant positive returns/MTM).
CALL DT SYMBOL Entry BUY/SALE EXIT/LTP P/L PL(%) REMARK CALL
ENTRY TGT SL CALL STATUS
18/09/2015 NF 8010 BUY 8065 55 0.69 EXIT AT PROFIT 8010-7940
8125-8200 <7860 CLOSED
18/09/2015 BNF 17475 BUY 17640 165 0.94 EXIT AT PROFIT
17575-17090 17955-18200 <16950 CLOSED
21/09/2015 NF 7915 BUY 8000 85 1.07 PROFIT 7900-7880 8075
<7840 CLOSED
21/09/2015 BNF 17200 BUY 17550 350 2.03 PROFIT 17200-17050
17660 <16950 CLOSED
21/09/2015 BHEL 204 BUY 204 0 0.00 NEUTRAL 208-200 228-250
<188 OPEN
22/09/2015 RIL 875 SELL 845 30 3.43 PROFIT 875-900 825 >925
CLOSED
22/09/2015 AXIS BK 530 SELL 505 25 4.72 PROFIT 530-540
480-460 >555 CLOSED
22/09/2015 NF 7802 BUY 7740 -62 -0.79 LOSS 7815-7790
8000-8075 <7740 CLOSED
23/09/2015 NF 7730 BUY 7885 155 2.01 PROFIT 7740-7715
7885-8040 <7650 CLOSED
23/09/2015 BNF 16800 BUY 17722 922 5.49 PROFIT 16850-16750
17260-17660 <16575 OPEN
23/09/2015 L 1465 BUY 1500 35 2.39 EXIT AT PROFIT 1475-1450
1533-1577 <1425 CLOSED
23/09/2015 ITC 311 BUY 329 18 5.79 PROFIT 311-300 335-359
<295 OPEN
23/09/2015 M 1194 BUY 1270 76 6.37 PROFIT 1194-1175
1225-1260 <1150 OPEN
23/09/2015 JUBFOOD 1535 BUY 1662 127 8.27 PROFIT 1530-1500
1670-1700 <1475 OPEN
23/09/2015 AXIS BK 500 BUY 513 13 2.60 PROFIT 500-490 535-550
<480 OPEN
23/09/2015 HDFC BK 1030 BUY 1098 68 6.60 PROFIT 1030-995
1095-1125 <975 OPEN
23/09/2015 ASIAN PAINTS 790 BUY 855 65 8.23 PROFIT 795-780
850-925 <760 OPEN
23/09/2015 AMBUJA CEM 201 BUY 210 9 4.48 PROFIT 205-197
230-260 <187 OPEN
23/09/2015 HINDALCO 70 BUY 74 4 5.71 PROFIT 73-68 85-105 <65
OPEN
23/09/2015 DLF 128 SELL 134 -6 -4.69 LOSS 126-130 120-109
>139 OPEN
23/09/2015 BEML 1225 BUY 1250 25 2.04 PROFIT 1250-1200
1315-1613 <1160 OPEN
23/09/2015 IDBI74 BUY 80 6 8.11PROFIT 74-60
95-140 <50 OPEN
23/09/2015 IDFC 138 BUY 142 4 2.90 EXIT AT PROFIT 138-126
188-205 <120 CLOSED
23/09/2015 TATAMOTORS 308 BUY 297 -11 -3.57 LOSS 310-305
367-401 <297 CLOSED
24/09/2015 TCS 2550 BUY 2750 200 7.84 PROFIT 2550-2500
2639-2750 <2470 CLOSED
24/09/2015 VOLTAS 250 BUY 270 20 8.00 PROFIT 250-245
262-269 <240 OPEN
24/09/2015 ICICI BK 267 BUY 281 14 5.24 PROFIT 267-257
285-305 <245 OPEN
28/09/2015 CARERATING 1095 BUY 1163 68 6.21 PROFIT 1100-1090
1146-1260 <1075 OPEN
28/09/2015 CIPLA 640 BUY 640 0 0.00 NEUTRAL 650-630 708-825
<600 OPEN
28/09/2015 SUN PHM 865 BUY 898 33 3.82 PROFIT 869-850-830
920-966 <820 OPEN
28/09/2015 HUL 790 BUY 810 20 2.53 PROFIT 800-770 860-902
<750 OPEN
28/10/2015 RIL 835 BUY 888 53 6.35 PROFIT 835-815 900-1070
<790 OPEN
28/09/2015 TATACHEM 375 BUY 399 24 6.40 PROFIT 375-355
401-442 <340 OPEN
29/09/2015 NF 7715 BUY 8132 417 5.41 PROFIT 7715-7630
8050-8125 <7540 OPEN
29/09/2015 ACC 1304 BUY 1370 66 5.06 PROFIT 1304-1280
1400-1440 <1250 OPEN
29/09/2015 L 1425 BUY 1550 125 8.77 PROFIT 1425-1400
1477-1500 <1370 OPEN
29/09/2015 TATAMOTORS 293 BUY 315 22 7.51 PROFIT 300-286
367-401 <278 OPEN
29/09/2015 TATASTEEL 202 BUY 225 23 11.39 PROFIT 202-190
243-273 <185 OPEN
01/10/2015 HCL TECH 852 BUY 860 8 0.94 PROFIT 875-830 950-980
<795 OPEN
AbsolutePL(%) 160.27
AVERAGE PL(%) 4.11
TOTAL NOOF CALLS39.00
PROFIT MTM POSITIVE34
NEUTRAL MTM ZERO2
LOSSMTM NEGATIVE3
SUCCESS RATIO 87%
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@goog
[www.niftyviews.com:23375] Fwd: Infy: What The Chart Saying Ahead Of Result ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Infy: What The Chart Saying Ahead Of Result ? Date: Sun, 11 Oct 2015 15:39:51 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Sustain above 1168-1200, Target May Be 1315-1405, Otherwise Expect Some Corrections Up To 1050-932 * *Market Is Expecting Q2FY16 PAT At Rs.3244 cr (7% Sequential Growth) & QEPS 14.55* *CMP: 1167* *Buy >1168 OR on dips around 1140* *TGT: 1200-1225-1285 (T+5)* *TGT:1315-1405 (3-12M) * * * *TSL<1125* Note: Consecutive closing below 1125 for any reason. Infy may fall up to 1088-1048-996-960-932 area, where it can be again accumulated, depending upon the news flow (earnings result & guidance) for better buying average (investment purpose). *Some Key points ahead of Infy result :* Infy will publish its Q2FY16 result tomorrow and historically its very important for our market sentiment. Although analysts are not expecting any great turnaround for Q2 corporate earnings as a whole (average earning growth around 5% YOY), any positive surprise could spark a rally in the market. Market is expecting Infy to deliver a strong Q2 result as traditionally Q2 is the best quarter for IT companies. Recent management commentary about some of its key verticals like manufacturing, retail, BFSI is quite encouraging. Infy is also planning to enter big into infrastructure management services and digital areas (automation) as par its recent CLSA Hong Kong conference. Although there is favorable impact for recent INR depreciation, absence any significant increase in wage/visa cost, but higher provisioning for variable pay outs, pricing pressure overseas and some cross currency headwinds (AUD) may keep its margin expansion within a narrow band. Full effect of its various acquisitions may reflect in Q3 onward. Large deal wins and CEO's own office attention for its top 10 priority clients may also reflect in the result in the coming days. No doubt, under new CEO (Vishal Sikka), Infy is able to turnaround quite convincingly for the last one year and both employees, clients and investors of the company has regained trust & confidence on the company. * * *Apart from result, revenue growth and guidance, the market will keenly watch:* Business & client spending trends in US & EU, as together this contributes around 85% of Infy's revenue. Management commentary on oil & gas sector as some of its rivals are projecting a pick up in spending by global oil giants in the days ahead (crude oil may hover around 50-70 $ in FY-16). Performance of top 10 accountants/clients of Infy. Infy's ability for swift absorption of next generation technology (Artificial Intelligence-AI, Automation & digital) and proper utilization of its huge cash reserve for acquisition of companies/start ups in these field of AI. Management commentary of H2FY16 performance as traditionally its also a weak quarter for IT companies, including Infy. Thus looking ahead, with improving macros of global economy amid easy monetary stance, specially in EU & US and along with that "Digital India" thrust, major IT companies having excellent management and strong balance sheet are ideal for portfolio investments at every major dips and Infy might be one of them. Recently, Infy wins a major Govt IT project for pan India GST implementation along with some other companies. There is great potential for India to grow significantly in a more "digital" way as its lacks sufficient pan India IT infrastructure and our economy is also suffering historically for that (genesis of unaccounted money for lack of plastic currency). Its a legacy issue for us. Thus , we may see huge investments by Govt in PPP mode for "Digital India" in the coming years and all major IT companies, including Infy may be the beneficiary of that (Digital India/Made In India/Make India theme). *As par BG metrics, valuations of Infy (in the current market trends):* *Present meddian valuation may be around: 1135 (FY:15)* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 1200-1300-1425 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA INFY54.3220.89 21.55 1107.86 1157.13 1132.49 1048.87 1144.24 INFY60.5260.45 21.55 1169.40 1221.41 1195.40 1048.87 1144.24 INFY71.25 305.95 21.55 1269.04 1325.48 1297.26 1048.87 1144.24 INFY85.55 360.65 21.55 1390.58 1452.42 1421.50 1048.87 1144.24 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0823IPeCUgc/VhoqXRLizeI/ESY/ZoeOxJxBUeU/s1600/INFY-09-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0_0HQ1-lwAM/VhoqZeLE6dI/ESg/93SUsQcO0ZU/s1600/INFY-FIBB-09-10-2015.png> <http://2.
[www.niftyviews.com:23376] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Oct): Has To Sustain Above 18000 For 19300 Or Expect Some Correction Up To 17000 In The Near Term
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Oct): Has To Sustain Above 18000 For 19300 Or Expect Some Correction Up To 17000 In The Near Term Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2015 07:36:49 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Market Will Focus Now On Q2FY16 Result, Ongoing Bihar Election & Macros (IIP/WPI/CPI)* BNF: 17608 (LTP) *Trading Levels: Positional* SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 18000 18100-150 18371-450* 18550-585 18625-850 19110-300 <17950 Weak < 17950 17823-740 17660-585* 17478-400 17351-280 17128-027 >18000 *Technical Analysis:* As par Monthly EW for BNF, we may be in the B wave and the possible extended target might be around 17950. In that scenario, corrective C wave 1-st target may be around 16880. Similarly NF has to sustain over 8250 for at least two consecutive days for the target of 8405-8675 in the near term, other wise it may also correct up to 7690. *Some Key Points:* Markets will focus on Infy result along with others biggies this week. Indusind Bank result on last Friday was more or less in line with street estimates. Although analysts are not expecting any miracle in earnings growth for Q2FY16 (average 5% sequential growth YOY), any positive surprise may spark further rally in the market towards 8355-8405 zone in Nifty. Looking ahead, lower interest rate environment with transmission of at least 100 bps cut in bank base rate (against 125 bps by RBI) within Dec'15 may augur well for our economy. So far around 70 bps has been transmitted by banks. This along with depressed commodity prices (even with crude around 50-60$) and better operating leverages may start to reflect in corporate earnings by Q3FY16 and we may see actual improved visible sequential growth (expected 15-20% in FY-17). Although, Bihar election is not a "do or die" situation for BJP & our economy, its certainly a sentiment for our market. As par various reports, the final outcome may be very close and at this moment it appears that BJP/NDA may not be able to garner 2/3-rd majority of its own and opposition combinations (JDU+Cong) might has some edge in formation of Govt in Bihar. Bad result in Bihar, may also cost some prospect for BJP in coming UP election. But, in another angle, defeat in Bihar may push BJP more boldly in its own economic reform agenda by believing more in it. For BJP, political compulsion should not hinder its pro-reform policy and it should understand that only by improvement of standard of living for "Aam Admi" (ordinary people), NAMO wave will be there all over India and not by "Beef meat ban" & 'Dadri incident". BJP does not have a leader like NAMO in each & every state and NAMO wave is very important for them for both Parliament & RS majority by 2019. Bihar or no Bihar, we may see an extreme step like joint session of parliament for passage of GST and some vital amendments in land bill also, if Cong and some others decide to act differently, because after Bihar, BJP has nothing to loose politically in the near future. Thus appropriate political management and understanding (back door talks) & effective floor coordination is required by the Govt for passage of key reform bills in RS as it lacks majority there, otherwise it has to show boldness for calling joint session of Parliament for passage of it. Globally, Fed will be in no hurry for lift off till March'16 (as par current set of "dismal" economic data from US and Sep FOMC minutes) and Fed Fund Rate also indicating little probability of any Dec'15 hike. Thus "risk trade" will be "on" with cyclical volatility owing to FOMC drama (cyclical hawkish & dovish comments/verbal intervention to keep USD in control). On the contrary, we are hearing some possibility of QE4 in US in some different form in the days ahead. (negative interest rate to pop up inflation !!). ECB & EU are also ready for more QE if such condition arises and PBOC is also trying for some structural reform apart from easy monetary policy and currency devaluation (Chinese style of QE). In short, there will be no dearth of global liquidity in forcible future and its up to India to attract foreign inflows by pushing its economic pro-reform agenda in right direction along with predictable and consistent tax reform policy. In the EM market, India is certainly a bright spot being the "fastest growing country surpassed even China". India is a relatively stable (politically) &am
[www.niftyviews.com:23356] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Oct): Need To Sustain Above 8200-8250 Zone For 8400-8675; Otherwise Can Consolidate A Bit Up To 7850-7690
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Oct): Need To Sustain Above 8200-8250 Zone For 8400-8675; Otherwise Can Consolidate A Bit Up To 7850-7690 Date: Wed, 7 Oct 2015 08:25:20 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Forthcoming Bihar Election, GST Passage & Q2FY16 Result Might Be The Next Triggers/Laggards* SGX NF: 8170 (CMP) NSE NF: 8162 (LTP) *Trading Levels: NSE-NF* SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR 8205 8233-50*8302-77 8405-30*8500-50 8600-75* <8185 8185 8150-100* 8050-8000 7760-7690 7670-30 7574-40 >8205 ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR 8205 8250* 83778430* 85508675* <8185 8185 8100* 80007690* 76307540* >8205 After surprised RBI cut of 0.50%, all eyes are now on the Govt for their part. Our Govt is already showing various proactive measures/initiatives for reforms, which need not take parliamentary legislation and as a result of both, "Rajan Rally" extends to around 6% in six days. Now, looking forward, 8200-8250 is a strong technical hurdle area and NF will need some triggers in the form of forthcoming Bihar elections (good result for BJP), possible GST passage and improved Q2FY16 result. We need at least 15-20% sustainable growth in EPS (YOY) for our market to scale 8675-9200 by Dec'15-March'16. Otherwise, expect some consolidation till 7690 and buy on dips approach might work good as depressed commodity prices, lower interest rate environment and better operating leverages for corporate India may result in better earnings as widely expected by FY-17. Globally, all eyes will be on BOJ announcement shortly and be sure, there will be no dearth of liquidity in the days ahead !!. All major central banks will continue their accommodative policy and monetary stimulus. *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eGUeKWKp4Ek/VhSGA9X3ZWI/ENk/BUXATn9uecU/s1600/NF-06-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ldFTOehBqsU/VhSGC9DCzcI/ENs/EZ9fDEnMeC0/s1600/NF-FIBB-06-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4py8Tkf-h0w/VhSGFBZy0MI/EN0/Tj6qDhpId8w/s1600/NF-MA-06-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QJeD6JAEW5E/VhSGIFZQWKI/EN8/fptcnxGOKtk/s1600/NF-TL-RSI-06-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UID7alUmXxI/VhSGLcax6YI/EOE/xiENr9ncEvY/s1600/NF-PATTERN-06-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uXNiuw2wcsA/VhSGUtnDdEI/EOM/NmdYq4QK6IY/s1600/NF-EW-06-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23365] Fwd: ICICI Bank: 273-264-247 Might Be Very Good Demand Zone In The Current Market Scenario
Forwarded Message Subject: ICICI Bank: 273-264-247 Might Be Very Good Demand Zone In The Current Market Scenario Date: Fri, 9 Oct 2015 08:31:45 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Increase Thrust On Digital Banking, Better Loan Spreads/NIM & NPA Management Along With SDR Push & Power Sector Reforms May Help* *CMP: 278* * * *Buy :275-273* * * *TGT: 286-295-321-338 (1-6M)* * * *TGT: 353-395-410-530 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<270* Note: Consecutive closing below 270 for any reason, ICICI may fall up to 264-247 area, where it can be again accumulated for investment purposes/better buying averages with TSL<240. *As par BG Metrics :* *Current median valuation may be around: 325 (FY:15)* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 355-400-435 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA ICICIBANK 19.8138.52 18 327.73 313.52 320.62 301.36 275.8 ICICIBANK 24.05 159.3 18 361.19 345.53 353.36 301.36 275.8 ICICIBANK 30.5183.25 18 406.75 389.12 397.94 301.36 275.8 ICICIBANK 35.55 210.95 18 439.14 420.10 429.62 301.36 275.8 *Analytical Charts: * <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lGqtCZS8fjM/VhcqtOQ0wNI/EOs/O3DG5fxeneQ/s1600/ICICI-08-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UUZJBS5-Ytg/Vhcqv6geQ4I/EO0/Q61J6Bu3V_4/s1600/ICICI-FIBB-08-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pdAqXDMPG6I/VhcqzqzqW6I/EO8/hp1Yoi3RJE0/s1600/ICICI-WK-08-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sUjF4rtBsF0/Vhcq3eW8wOI/EPE/3K8SC4EExLg/s1600/ICICI-PATTERN-08-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-u5bgUILYR8Q/Vhcq6nuFx2I/EPM/65EeKxw-mD4/s1600/ICICI-TL-08-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8uTBm3kgZpw/VhcrB6p7-XI/EPU/5-7sAe9I2Z4/s1600/ICICI-TL-LT-08-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23387] Fwd: TCS: Ahead Of Q2 Result----Blood Bath Only Sustaining Below 2580-2550 Area For TGT Of 2490-2455; Otherwise Expect 2685-2770
Forwarded Message Subject: TCS: Ahead Of Q2 ResultBlood Bath Only Sustaining Below 2580-2550 Area For TGT Of 2490-2455; Otherwise Expect 2685-2770 Date: Tue, 13 Oct 2015 07:56:02 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com Analysts are expecting Q2FY16 PAT around Rs.6052 cr at 6.5% sequential growth (YOY) and Q2EPS at 30.50 at 5% QOQ growth *CMP: 2592* * * *Buy: 2580-2560* * * *TGT: 2661-2685-2770 (T+5)* * * *TGT:2840-2950-3150 (1-12M)* * * *TGT: 3260-3450 (24M)* * * *TSL<2540* Note: Consecutive closing below 2540 for any reason, TCS can fall up to 2510-2490-2455-2435 area, where it nay be again accumulated for investment purpose depending upon the Q2 result, guidance & other news low. *Some key takeaways :* Market is expecting some what steady earnings from TCS in Q2 lagged by woes of Latin America & Japan market and in its insurance platform business (Dilgenta-UK subsidiary), but supported by some decent revenue growth for Q2 seasonal factor, recovery in client spending in US & EU. Some cross currency headwinds effect may also be there in the Q2 result for depreciation of AUD (due to Chinese currency devaluation), Real (Brazil; commodity woes & political instability there). But EUR currency headwinds may be lower in Q2 due to relatively stable EUR after Q1 Greece drama. Energy & telecom business might be tepid due to structural weakness but digital platform may give some support in Q2 and the subsequent quarters. Also, crude is bottoming out, we may see sequential higher spending by global oil giants and that may give some tailwinds for TCS in the coming quarters. Market will keenly watch digital revenue growth and overall guidance & commentary for TCS apart from Q2 result.The stock under performed in the last few months against its peers Infy due to lower than expected earnings & guidance in Q1FY16. Looking ahead, any major dips in TCS scrip due to result oriented volatility might be an good opportunity for investors to accumulate it for better operating leverages & margins, wider geographical reach of its business, diversified software service portfolios & strong executions. Also, due to relatively depreciated INR & growing/stable global economics outlook (US/EU) and India's increasing "digital" thrust to improve its IT infrastructure, all major players might be major beneficiaries of that and TCS may also be one of them. * * *As par BG metric & present market parameters:* *Current median valuation of TCS may be around : 2490 (FY:15)* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 2770-3085-3470 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA TCS 101.34 258.51 23.52465.31 2504.38 2484.85 2552.09 2633.61 TCS 125.5 309.1 23.52743.49 2786.97 2765.23 2552.09 2633.61 TCS 155.95 369.25 23.53058.26 3106.72 3082.49 2552.09 2633.61 TCS 196.75 441.25 23.53435.10 3489.53 3462.32 2552.09 2633.61 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0fKjuk16Eiw/Vhxm3nSmAMI/EUU/0_4D2BJrcKY/s1600/TCS-12-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0UOq74u3T8w/Vhxm5YrOGXI/EUc/hwgDkJ0w2VU/s1600/TCS-FIBB-12-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-URgJJ8kjlBQ/Vhxm6yGdT8I/EUk/9X-DgfUtRJ4/s1600/TCS-WK-12-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Nx7Ny8tKU7k/Vhxm-RBVSoI/EUs/TPj9b_9MS58/s1600/TCS-PATTERN-12-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-40BDfdjwdFg/VhxnAGahkPI/EU0/V8DB69ogx1w/s1600/TCS-TL-RSI-12-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FFVW8J5KbxM/VhxnDklnwoI/EU8/OfOLPXG9EUc/s1600/TCS-PATTERN-LT-12-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from thi
[www.niftyviews.com:23549] Fwd: M: 1300-1310 Area Might Be A Good Supply Zone---
Forwarded Message Subject:M: 1300-1310 Area Might Be A Good Supply Zone--- Date: Wed, 18 Nov 2015 08:48:45 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect 1430-1450 only sustaining above 1320; * *Otherwise 1250-1220 may be again on the card* *CMP: 1288* * * *Sell: 1300-1310* * * *TGT: 1250-1210*-1170 (1-3M)* ** *TSL>1320* Note: Consecutive closing above 1320 for any reason, M may scale up to 1382-1430-1450 in short to mid term with 1285 being an important support zone. In that alternative scenario, sell positions may be reversed. M is another great stock for portfolio investment. It also rallied recently by a good extent on the back of some good news like superb "Dhanteras" sales of 11500 vehicles in a day (up by almost 70%), 7-th pay commission recommendations (which is positive for auto sector) etc.But considering the recent price & time action, these news may be already digested by the market to a great extent. Thus some retracements can happen from this strong resistance zone (1300-1310) and one can accumulate it around 1210 area for favorable risk reward ratio. To be cont for more inputs--- Analytical Charts: <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-I5vUv92lhCU/Vkvr01YgejI/E7U/P2yGoUljIYU/s1600/M%2526M-17-11-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ab0WJu2HomE/Vkvr3rhecOI/E7c/15wO0PiAusQ/s1600/M%2526M-FIBB-17-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q3BBCCa36BE/Vkvr5uDEP9I/E7k/kOvtvv_x3g0/s1600/M%2526M-WK-17-11-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Fiz70erMrxg/Vkvr7DDLA1I/E7s/RHObXQJo_bE/s1600/M%2526M-PATTERN-17-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UW5N4-QCZyM/Vkvr9o5IOlI/E70/z2pkfaqWbSo/s1600/M%2526M-TL-17-11-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6USYSlxVctQ/VkvsAXOKnwI/E78/S9RHu4_nUjE/s1600/M%2526M-EW-M-17-11-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23207] Fwd: Indusind Bank: 830-820 Might Be Very Good Buying Zone for 911-995 In The Near Term--Strong Earnings Could Help Despite EQ Dilution For QIP
Forwarded Message Subject: Indusind Bank: 830-820 Might Be Very Good Buying Zone for 911-995 In The Near Term--Strong Earnings Could Help Despite EQ Dilution For QIP Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 09:50:37 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com _*Technical Analysis:*_ CMP:848 For Investment Purpose: Buy830: TGT: 911-995-1025 (1-6M) 1150 (12M); Trading SL820 Note: Sustain below 820, IIB might fall to 784 zone, where fresh buying can be initiated again for good average. _*Trading Levels (Positional):*_ For Trading Purpose: SL/5FROM SLR IndusindCMP 848 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong 830 850 872 890 911*940 972 995 820 Weak820 802 784*778-40 726 715 699 650 830 _*Rationale*_ IIB corrected for the last few days by almost 16% from its recent cyclical high against overall market correction of around 12%. Apart from general market meltdown, other reasons may be IIB's intention of acquiring loan portfolio of RBS (around Rs.6000 cr) and recent QIP issue of similar amount (Rs.5081 cr @857.20 par share). The other reason may be grant of payment bank license by RBI to certain corporate groups, which might pose some competition to the private banking space. But having said that, a small payment bank can not be the true replacement of a full fledged bank in its true sense. The QIP proceeds will help the bank to support future growth and to maintain capital adequacy ratio. But, six cr new share issued in QIP mode to promoters on preferential basis, which may dilute net EPS by around 10% unless supported by sequentially higher income. The bank is actively scrutinizing the loan portfolio of RBS to take a final call shortly. IIB also recently acquired diamond jewelry financing business of RBS and is quite confident of growth in retail financing and CV business along with other fees income (3-rd party product sale). The bank is also proving digital platform very rapidly in order to enhance the net banking POS experience. Going ahead, with expected growth in retail/SME loan book along with sequentially higher CV corporate loan demand and relatively stable NPA, a strong bank like IIB might be a bright spot in the private banking space. _*Valuation As Par BG Metrics:(Approx)*_ As par current market scenario, median valuation of IIB : *805* Projected fair valuation: *915-1025-1170 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LV SV MV 200-DEMA10-DEMA INDUSINDBK 32.04 173.97 23 783.78 814.17 798.97 833.61 899.52 INDUSINDBK 41.5229.25 23 892.01 926.60 909.31 833.61 899.52 INDUSINDBK 52.31 338.15 23 1001.47 1040.31 1020.89 833.61 899.52 INDUSINDBK 68.15 498.75 23 1143.08 1187.41 1165.25 833.61 899.52 _*Technical Charts:*_ http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qbdW5puJp40/VeEv7-et5SI/D4M/TSKTEfkoZ-o/s1600/IIB-28-08-2015.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WXzf9-tv_pM/VeEv9muUgFI/D4U/4BRDbwIlLLs/s1600/IIB-FIBB-28-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OR2i3emmX-I/VeEv_XZwPwI/D4c/1wjk2pvZ6jE/s1600/IIB-WK-28-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9-bjFT3tBa0/VeEwBapzg9I/D4k/7ZcgG-v_O3M/s1600/IIB-PATTERN-28-08-2015.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y_YyZVPj2is/VeEwDOQFSNI/D4s/ttgewslKvRw/s1600/IIB-TL-28-08-2015.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YW9v9IzMVAY/VeEwGd4YZQI/D40/GLBRKKpKVRc/s1600/IIB-TL-LT-28-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation
[www.niftyviews.com:23193] Fwd: Ten Portfolio Stocks At Bargain Hunting Prices (Bottom Fishing Or Catching Falling Knives)
Forwarded Message Subject: Ten Portfolio Stocks At Bargain Hunting Prices (Bottom Fishing Or Catching Falling Knives) Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 07:02:39 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh asis...@gmail.com Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com In stock market, when there is blood on street, buying good business (may be in some distress) is the most easy way to create wealth, although there may be some short term pain. For time time being, technically, 7600 may be a decent support for our market and consecutive closing below that for any reason, 7300 should be the near term base and Nifty has to sustain above 7950 area for any meaningful rally towards 8355 zone in the near term. By sustaining over 8675 zone, FY:16-17 target for Nifty may be around 9200-9700, if we see clear visible overall economic recovery by H2FY16. Going ahead, dovish Fed, huge arsenal of PBOC (don't underestimate China) along with ever green ECB BOJ will support the global market and be sure that these four major central banks will not allow any contagion or disorderly movement in the financial market unlike 2006-08 crisis. Back home, we may see GST, further rate cuts (at least 0.50% in FY16) and various other reform measures (both legislative non-legislative). Depressed commodity prices (specially crude oil) is also going to be beneficial for our economy in the long term, although its giving pain to some sectors in the short term. Bihar election may give some cues for Modi wave, but going by various combinations permutations, BJP will not get the required majority of its own until next term (CY:2019). So, it has to follow effective floor management and specific opponent party wise strategy for passage of various reform bills in RS. Govt also need to believe in its own reform agenda we may see even one or two joint sessions of parliament for passage of important reform bills as country can't wait for mood of opponent political parties further. As a safe heaven appeal, China's pain may be India's gain in the coming days as there will no dearth of liquidity globally (thanks to 24/7 money printing in different forms) and among EM/BRICS, India is certainly a bright spot (mainland China market will need time to be more mature with Russia Brazil not in a comfortable position). Now, India's macroeconomic position is in a comfortable position given low inflation, CAD and competitive INR. For investment idea, here are some bitten down stocks for portfolio: These are blue chip stocks having excellent debt profile, management and great brand names business model, now available at relatively cheaper price. Note: Investment time frame:3-12 months Allocation: Equal @10% of total portfolio for 10 stocks Investment mode: SIP @50% each in suggested buying zone (Trading SL suggested as par immediate positional support zone of 7600 for Nifty) STOCK CMP BUYING ZONE (IDEAL) TGT TRADING SL(BLW) TATA MOTORS 338 310-305 415-530-615 299 TATA STEEL 212 200-190 350-410-580 185 SBI 247 255-245 305-335-360 240 AXIS BK 497 490-480 590-615-705 475 ICICI BK280 280-270 325-395-530 265 RIL 865 840-820 1000-1070-1270 815/790 SUN PHARMA 889 830-810 965-1010-1200 790 TCS 26202540-2490 2750-2840-3150 2470 COAL INDIA 360 340-335 395-445-495 330 LT 16001600-1550 1760-1900-2100 1525 _*Technical Charts:*_ http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-L2iAN-vVf-c/Vd5mpG5FesI/D3g/TibGdNp6zmM/s1600/NF-25-08-2015.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Aoxpms4oMYg/Vd5msO8PsvI/D3o/LKYhbfCsErE/s1600/NF-PATTERN-25-08-2015.png -- Thanks Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same.ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Niftyviews.com group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23238] Fwd: Nifty Fut(Sep):7540 Zone Is Important And Sustaining Below That It May Find Base Around 7315-7180 For The Time Being; Dovish Fed & RBI Rate Cut/GST Hope May Support
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut(Sep):7540 Zone Is Important And Sustaining Below That It May Find Base Around 7315-7180 For The Time Being; Dovish Fed & RBI Rate Cut/GST Hope May Support Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2015 07:33:36 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com _*Trading Levels (Positional):*_ SGX NF: 7600 (LTP) NSE NF: 7662 (LTP) Gap Up/Dw (Indicative) SGX NIFTY 7600-62 NF-SEP LTP 7662 SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 75307565-98 7632-65 7700-20* 7750-71 7800-25 <7510 Weak < 75107475-45 7412-3907350-15* 7290-50 7200-180>7530 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 7530759876657720* 77717825-75 <7510 Weak < 7510744573907315* 72507180-6985 >7510 _*Rationale:*_ US NFP (Job) data was mixed on Friday. Headline number was poor and below estimate but revisions were higher and unemployment rate (5.1%) was slightly below estimate. Consequently, Fed Fund Rate was showing only 30% chance of Sep lift off and market is bracing now for Dec'15. Despite that, US market sold off for its own growth concern, long week end holiday (labour day today) and China opens today after two days holidays there (as traders lighten their long positions for risk off). All eyes will be on today's China figure of FX reserve data today after the devaluation & intervention of Yuan by PBOC. Market is bracing for a figure of around $100 billion decrease and keenly watched behavior of mainland China market, which may be included in the MSCI index shortly as par reports. Stability of Chinese market is now most important for the global market along with Fed's decision regarding rate hike on Sep'17. Back home, though decision to implement OROP could cost us around 8000-1 cr over the next five years or so and Govt has to find a mechanism for necessary funding, it may act as a stimulus to our economy as lots on money will come into the system (especially rural India) which may be translated into real spending in the days ahead along with implementation 7-th pay commission (Jan'16 onward). Also there will be GST & RBI rate cut hope, which may kept the market alive & volatile also. _*Technical Analysis & Charts:*_ As par simple EW analysis, we may be in the C wave now and the text book target may be 7660-7540 or in the worst case scenario even 6500 (extended correction). As market is extremely oversold, watch 7632-7540 zone for any possible short covering up to 7720-7785 today/this week. <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6qkHvz93uqA/VezuNEMPxjI/D7U/wVC-5vqAqUM/s1600/NF-WK-04-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XPJJysgwOxE/VezuPRE37dI/D7c/tIgReujELbI/s1600/NF-FIBB-04-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JhfIRCIkL1I/VezuWh0yIJI/D7k/B4BcP02UghQ/s1600/NF-WK-MA-04-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9F8wz-YzAcc/VezuY5C1vWI/D7s/f6iaxT9PkZs/s1600/NF-TL-04-09-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mdVVMgdQgqQ/VezubBIeOwI/D70/OQiXMo2nFJE/s1600/NF-TL-MT-04-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zafZroOhwHc/Vezudhs03uI/AAAAD78/wNXFm1130cI/s1600/NF-CHANNEL-04-09-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a
[www.niftyviews.com:23258] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut(Sep): Watch 15750-600 Area; Sustaining Below That It May Fall Towards 14700-14000 Zone, Otherwise Expect Some Dead Cat Bounce
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty Fut(Sep): Watch 15750-600 Area; Sustaining Below That It May Fall Towards 14700-14000 Zone, Otherwise Expect Some Dead Cat Bounce Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2015 08:08:22 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com _*Trading Levels: (Positional)*_ As prepared 08/09/2015 (Morning): BNF-Sep LTP 15800 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 15800 15950* 16230 16310 16410 16535-680 <15750 Weak < 15750 15600* 15330 15190 15100 14985-700 >15800 Now BNF today made a high of 16490 and closed around 16413 (LTP). For today & next few days:(09/09/2015) BNF-Sep LTP 14413 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 16550 16680-850 16950 17130* 17287 17400-660 <16500 Weak < 16500 16313-230 16037 15790* 15700-650 15400-125 >15800 _*Rationale:*_ BNF was under severe pressure in line with broader market meltdown & global (China) jitters. Also, there was a RBI draft guidelines which proposed some changes in calculation methodology for bank's base rate calculation (from previous averaging method to marginal cost of funds). This may impact NIM of the banks in FY-17 and par various reports, this may cause around Rs.2/ cr one time hit for the banks, if implemented in its present form. Considering the huge one time effect, RBI may ultimately permit the banks for proper adjustments in books of the banks over a period of time rather than a one time effect. Now, yesterday's meeting of the industry leaders with the Govt (PM) has created a change in sentiment among the stakeholders and market participants. As par reports, industry also pressed for urgent rate cut in the meeting where RBI Gov was also present. We may see 0.50% repo cut and some other measures (CRR/SLR/MSF cut etc) on 29-th Sep (RBI policy date), if not earlier (after 17-th Sep, Fed policy date). As par Fed fund rate, there is little probability of any hike in Sep and all eyes will be on Dec'15. Our Govt may announce GST session by this week itself for passage of GST bill as it may be able to garner direct/indirect support for GST through back door talks with the oppositions & Cong. If, insurance bill could pass despite no majority of BJP in RS, then GST bill also can be passed also. These events (dovish Fed/GST/RBI Rate cut) are sufficient itself to pop up our market by at least 5-10% in the near term as we are extremely oversold till yesterday. _*Technical Analysis & Charts:*_ As par simple EW analysis in monthly chart, BNF might be in A wave now (after 1-5 & A-B-C) and the projected target of the same may be around 15800 or 15000 (extended correction in A). It has made the recent low of around 15790 till date. <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vleV3vZp-CE/Ve-R3siLTiI/D8k/a_IbQFFKZVA/s1600/BNF-WK-08-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fyLC1YcAUNw/Ve-R5KWDdHI/D8s/YtqSi-YYD_o/s1600/BNF-WK-MA-08-09-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tRUqwmtznTw/Ve-R7Bm64jI/D80/qh_PThbzUpo/s1600/BNF-FIBB-08-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ptcJm3LJOpE/Ve-R-PruZqI/D88/p02XWC0mL-k/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-08-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5XqX7O-p_Bo/Ve-SENJSH1I/D9E/GUERFS9IpmQ/s1600/BNF-TL-08-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-W2t8M5TVbKw/Ve-SGuhK0oI/AAAAD9M/ViSVfaLZYA8/s1600/BNF-EW-MONTHLY-08-09-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intent
[www.niftyviews.com:23275] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Sep): Fed Or No Fed, NF Has To Sustain Above 7900 For 8125-8355, Otherwise Expect Again 7550; Buy On Dips Might Work In Any Fed Induced Meltdown!!
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Sep): Fed Or No Fed, NF Has To Sustain Above 7900 For 8125-8355, Otherwise Expect Again 7550; Buy On Dips Might Work In Any Fed Induced Meltdown!! Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2015 07:21:40 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com _*Trading Levels:*_ SGX NF :7833 (LTP) NSE NF: 7785 (LTP) SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR Intraday Swing Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 7900 7955-78 8006-82*8125-65 8200-16 8242-96 <7880 Weak < 7880 7852-20 7778-55*7716-6907665-32 7584-40 >7900 FOR ConservativePositional Trader T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 7900 79787882* 816582968355<7880 Weak < 7880 78207755* 769076327540>7900 _*Some Key Takeaways:*_ We are entering in to one of most vital Fed week and considering various events risks, Fed could be on hold this week. Also Fed Fund Rate is showing little probability ( around 30%) of Sep rate hike and all focus may be shifted to Dec'15 now. Fed commentary may be the most important. It appears that Fed is not confident enough about US growth potential & stability of global financial market and may take excuses from: * Probability of another US Govt "Shut Down" by early Oct. * Uncertainty of Greece election outcome on Sep-20. * China jitters and Yuan devaluation. * Delicate socio economic conditions and lack of growth in EU, despite record ECB QE. * Lack of visible growth in Japan despite prolonged Abenomics. * Depressed commodity prices due to tepid global growth outlook. * Benign inflation trend in US & low wage growth and recent USD strength, (which is also hurting US export and corporate profits). * BIS warning about possible cascading effect on global financial system because of Fed hike as the Bank think that the world is not ready yet for Fed rate hike amid cheap money. IMF has also the same view. Although headline GDP & average employment data in US make the case for rate hike to normal level as par text book, in reality, Fed will take more time to decide and this drama may continue even after Dec'15. For Fed, verbal intervention is now seems to be a perfect tool to control USD strength than any real action. As par rough estimates, 1% currency strength is equivalent to at least 0.25% of rate hike in an economy. As on date dollar index is up by more than 10% from Nov'14 (end of QE3 after year long tapering). Even if, Fed decides for lift off on Sep-17, market has already discounted at least 0.25% hike and in that case after some initial whipsaw kind of movement (sell off), global market, including India may rally, as a great uncertainty in the form of Fed has been removed (depending upon the Fed statement and its dovish or hawkish stance). A Sep hike of 0.50% may be a negative surprise for the market at this point of time. A rate hike by FOMC may also indicate that Fed is confident about US growth, being the 1-st largest economy in the world followed by China. The market may also want to see US growth amid so called China slowdown to led the global recovery. Back home, our market will look to today's evening CPI data after block buster IIP data on Friday and RBI policy meeting on Sep-29. A lower expected CPI (around 3.4%) will make the case for rate cut by RBI as all other conditions are ripe for immediate cut up to 0.50%. As par reports, GST parliamentary committee will convene its meeting on Sep-15 for a preparation of administrative work for possible nation wide role out by April'16. Govt is also planning to advance the date for winter session of parliament shortly after concluding of Bihar election to pass the GST bill. Political management & back door talks may help. Overall depressed commodity prices, expected transmission of lower interest rate cycle, better operating leverage & macros and demand revival in our economy may help to upgrade the real earnings of the corporate in the coming days. Thus India, being a net importer of commodities will co
[www.niftyviews.com:23268] Fwd: Bhel: Sustaining Above 210-220, Short Term Target May Be 243-250; Better Than Expected IIP May Help
_*Trading Levels (Positional)*_ SL1FROM SLR CMP BHELSPOT211 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR Strong > 210 220*228*236 243 250-58* 270-77 288-300 <205 Weak < 205 200*192*182-72 167 145 135-25 108-100 >210 Note: For Bhel, 200-192 is a strong demand zone and consecutive closing below 192, it may crash to 145 or lower in the worst bear case scenario. _* *_ _*Some points or rationale behind Bhel:*_ For the last few days Bhel was under pressure because it was forced to suspend work at Ennore plant (TN) following the Chennai HC order (upon a petition by a consortium of rival companies along with its China partner against the bidding mechanism). This could affect the revenue growth of Bhel to some extent and the whole bidding process followed by it. Lately, Bhel was struggling with the new competitive bidding process and some of the recent big projects were awarded to it by mutually negotiated terms. Though, this is affecting Bhel in the short term, being a PSU backed by strong expertise and financial metrics, it will be always preferred by state runs power distribution companies. In any way, Bhel can always approach the SC against the order of the HC as par its available legal rights and get a stay of the same. Its a fact that Bhel's recent financial performance has been dragged by slow movement of orders in hand and lengthy billing cycles. It also reflect the dismal state of capital goods sector, project delays and cost over runs & "unhurried reforms" in India. Land is also an issue here for power generation & distribution companies. While the current situation is definitely gloomy, a gradual recovery in economy in H2FY16 (as widely expected) and the Govt's focus on infrastructure, "Smart City" likely to be positive factors for Bhel. Looking ahead, Bhel has already good order books and on margin front also, the management is confident because of its huge capacity & scale. The order book is expected to be robust led by a combination of competitive & negotiated bidding. Apart from various projects in power sector, Bhel is also expected to get some big projects in high speed trains (along with collaboration from Japanese companies) and in defense (submarines & naval guns). With expected pick up in the execution of the pending projects and Govt's increased spending in infrastructure along with much awaited power sector reforms, we may see substantial improvement in the Bhel's cash flow in the coming days. Considering the above expected IIP data released yesterday (although there is some lower base effect) and all the above bad news for, we may say that worst is almost over for capital goods sector including Bhel. Also, Govt may further divest its stake in Bhel (by OFS) in the near future and being a PSU "Navratna", it ma not allow it to " sell " cheap. As par BG metrics of Techno Funda Valuation: (as par current market parameters) Current estimated median value of Bhel: 230 Projected fair values might be: 300-360-430 (FY:16-18) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LV SV MV 200-DEMA10-DEMA BHEL5.15140.82 43.11 234.24 219.23 226.74 247.14 216.48 BHEL8.7 147.9 43.11 304.45 284.94 294.70 247.14 216.48 BHEL12.55 155.25 43.11 365.66 342.23 353.95 247.14 216.48 BHEL18.25 163.05 43.11 440.95 412.70 426.82 247.14 216.48 _*Technical Charts:*_ <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VRgdzwpWUMY/VfOuedCJwoI/D9w/loJnOBGScng/s1600/Bhel-11-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mo87JbA09qw/VfOugpRGi9I/D94/Ua-AnW6SscU/s1600/Bhel-Fibb-11-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hbf3B9_k8R4/VfOuikd0-SI/D-A/2d7HOLQ0Orw/s1600/Bhel-Wk-11-09-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bnDfuz8nRIk/VfOulys_lLI/D-I/Njmr_1yDT4c/s1600/Bhel-TL-11-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ggu8-QebzY0/VfOurIJs0JI/D-Q/7AtPWfLRajk/s1600/Bhel-Pattern-11-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0ElpxANynFM/VfOutqVNa2I/D-Y/hN3Th2QGwFU/s1600/Bhel-TL-LT-11-09-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSI
[www.niftyviews.com:23296] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Sep): Are We Heading For 18200 or 15500 Amid Fed's Attempt For The Greatest Monetary Experiment In History ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Bank Nifty (Sep): Are We Heading For 18200 or 15500 Amid Fed's Attempt For The Greatest Monetary Experiment In History ? Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2015 09:30:17 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Trading Levels (Positional):* BNF-Sep LTP 16957 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 17050 17130-260* 17365-475 17540-660* 17791-955 18080-200 <17000 Weak < 17000 16924-730* 16627-528 16300-210* 15980-917 15793-720 >17050 _* *_ *Some Key Takeaways:* The global market including Wall Street & Dalal Street are trading quite strong ahead of Fed without any fear and the risk trade is "on". It appears that the market has largely discounted the the following first two Fed scenarios: * *Fed holds with a hawkish commentary (Hawkish Hold):* Fed holds and kept alive about Oct/Dec'15 lift off idea. There is 70-80% probability for this. * *Fed holds with a dovish commentary (Dovish Hold)*: Fed holds and does not stress about any immediate hike, even in Dec'15. There is 20% probability for this. * *Fed hikes by 0.25% with a dovish commentary (Dovish Hike)*: Fed lifts off by at least 0.25% or even by 0.50% and make it clear that there is no probability of imminent hike in 2016 and they will closely monitor the economic progress and may also take corrective steps.There is 10% probability for this. * *Fed hikes by 0.25% with a hawkish commentary (Hawkish Hike):* Fed lifts off by 0.25-0.50% with a hint that from 2016 on wards, there will be possibility of hike @0.25% in every Fed meeting until the Fed Fund Rate reaches 3.50-3.75% as par economic progress!! There is less than 10% probability (or zero chance) for this. Overall, market may not react more than 3-5% on either side in any of the above first three probable Fed scenarios. *Back to our market:* * *Hawkish Hold by Fed*: RBI may cut only 0.25% in Sep and will wait for Fed in Dec'15. * *Dovish Hold by Fed*: RBI may cut by 0.50% in Sep!! * *Dovish Hike by Fed*: RBI may put on hold and will wait for Dec for further evaluation.In that case RBI may again raise the issue of late transmission of previous rate cuts by banks.If Fed hikes by even 0.25%, then there may be chain reactions among other central bankers and UK might be the 2-nd developed economy which can raise rate also. Others may soon follow for the interest rate differential and to prevent capital outflow. * *Hawkish Hike by Fed*:RBI may be forced to raise rate to prevent capital outflow simply for interest rate differential. *Bottom line:* As global market is already corrected recently quite a lot including India, *even for a dovish hike* by Fed we may not fall down more than 5% in the worst case scenario. On the contrary, dovish hike may be largely discounted by the market already and after some whipsaw reaction, market may stabilize or even rally, because by a confirmed Fed decision, a great deal of year long uncertainty will be removed and market will then concentrate on other factors. In case of Dovish or even Hawkish hold be Fed tonight, there is a strong buzz that RBI may cut as early as tomorrow (by at least 0.25%) in an out of policy manner to give an appropriate rate cut "Gift" on the occasion of "Happy Ganesh Chaturthi" to the nation!! *Technical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2FIf_INma1g/Vfo1yFffyXI/EAg/-G8t0ne2EJY/s1600/BNF-WK-16-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cr-PkxuR2Xc/Vfo10OjHQLI/EAo/lmnb6qMjJaY/s1600/BNF-FIBB-16-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oHYNfo6GID4/Vfo12hSYd0I/EAw/AUR5aBtvBU8/s1600/BNF-WK-MA-16-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-seIgG5UqFec/Vfo16BOjrYI/EA4/SY59hMlPqeE/s1600/BNF-TL-16-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6_mjzyQrdiM/Vfo18J1vxxI/EBA/NHvMvRZClEA/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-16-09-205.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-amtz1a1PG0w/Vfo1-zJ1RjI/AAAAEBI/5QSaoPzNnpM/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-LT-16-09-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and p
[www.niftyviews.com:23332] Fwd: Kaveri Seeds:The Great Downfall Saga-----Should We Enter Now ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Kaveri Seeds:The Great Downfall Saga-Should We Enter Now ? Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 06:53:21 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 426** ** **Buy: 426-413** ** **TGT: 446-487 (1-6M)** ** **TGT: 487-513-668-**725**(12-24M)** ** **TSL<395** ** ** * *Note: Consecutive closing below 395 for any reason, KSCL may dip towards 345-300 zone, where it can be again **accumulated for investment purpose (depending on the news flow).* KSCL has dropped by almost 60% from its all time high of around 1075 in the span of six months. *Primary reasons of its super fall might be:* Although the company was expected to to report double digit growth in revenue, in Q2FY16, KSCL actually delivered 20% drop in revenue and 5% fall in net profit. The revenue fall was very disappointing as the company did not take part in active marketing in high credit markets of Maharashtra (MH) fearing bad debts amid a very sad state of farmers there. MH govt also reduced the prices of cotton seeds and consequently KSCL withdrew itself from the MH market albeit temporarily. Also, unattractive cotton prices, deficit monsoon in cotton growing areas and resultant shift in acreages reduced the demand of the cotton seeds and its volume fall by almost 26%. Thus agrarian crisis and resultant pressure on the Govt to alleviate the suffering of the farmers are leading to more state interference and free market mechanism of the agri seed business, including cotton seeds also. The overall shabby situation in agriculture, specially in TNG/MH region along with competition from smaller seed companies is leading to inventory pile ups .The Govt's price intervention is also adding wounds and creating an uncertainty over the overall agri seed business outlook. *There is also some royalty payments issue with Monsanto (technical know-how partner). As par reports, for every bag of cotton seeds KSCL sold (around 900-930), it has to pay royalty @120 to Monsanto. But KSCL is paying Monsanto @20 only as par directive from Telangana(TGN) Govt. TGN also issued a directive not to increase cotton seed prices because of weak monsoon. A case in this regard is pending in TGN HC and any adverse ruling from there could cost the KSCL around Rs.64 cr for which the company had not done any provisioning in its books of accounts so far (Q2FY16). This is a significant risk as that could cost the company around 15% estimated EPS (FY:16/17).* All the above issues had led to earnings downgrade by analysts and the scrip reacted so much !! But having said this, the scrip might be discounted to a great extent for the above set of negative news, going be the price action for the last six months. *Looking ahead:* KSCL is taking various proactive steps for better business in other agri products, having excellent demand potential with better margin reducing dependence on cotton seeds. The Monsanto case will ultimately be decided in the highest judiciary (SC) and there will be ample time. Also as the State Govt and farmer's issue is involved here, the Govt might consider some subsidy in this royalty issue here to ensure proper supply along with required quality. With softening of bank interest rate, we may see overall expected economic growth, better infrastructure which may be also helpful for our rural economy and agri sector in the coming days. Global commodity prices is perhaps bottoming out and we may see better commodity prices including agri commodity in the days ahead. Thus, investment in KSCL may not be a bed idea at this stage. *As par BG**metrics:* *Current median valuation may be around:**500* *Projected fair valu**ations might be around:550-600-700 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LV SV MV 200-DEMA10-DEMA KSCL42.26 109.88 10 553.07 432.09 492.58 723.82 441.79 KSCL51.5158.25 10 610.55 476.99 543.77 723.82 441.79 KSCL61.7221.55 10 668.28 522.10 595.19 723.82 441.79 KSCL84.25 310.15 10 780.91 610.09 695.50 723.82 441.7 *Technical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2oO11gkDY5E/Vgs4Dwgp2qI/EIE/t2JhxQghmmw/s1600/KSCL-28-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VXCpcLti6Ck/Vgs4FtjWQ_I/EIM/4A5_AMFpH-8/s1600/KSCL-FIBB-28-09-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AIM518XwmhI/Vgs4JaXY4AI/EIU/ty6W0HZqPBw/s1600/KSCL-WK-28-09-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pWkZbz7M8x0/Vgs4Kxl3UsI/EIc/r2rT09sMcuQ/s1600/KSCL-PATTERN-28-09-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9jptHwnrYxw/Vgs4MflTZII/EIk/lqbEgfydpeM/s1600/KSCL-TL-28-09-2015.png> ** -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEW
[www.niftyviews.com:23338] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut(Oct): Need To Sustain Over 17570-17660 For 18000
Forwarded Message Subject:Bank Nifty Fut(Oct): Need To Sustain Over 17570-17660 For 18000 Date: Thu, 1 Oct 2015 07:48:19 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *"Rajan Rally" May Continue And We Can See 18800-19300 In The Near Term--Power Sector Reform Initiatives May Help * *Trading Levels: Positional* LTP 17328 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR 17200 17319-9117482-570* 17661-760* 17851-950 18053-160 <17150 17150 16979 16619-590* 16270-187* 16000 15793 >17200 Yesterday BNF under performed broader market to some extent due to concern of NIM for rate cut transmissions by banks. On an average so far Banks has transmit nearly 70 bps against 120 bps cut by RBI. Also due to equity infusion in PSBS, there is some possibility of EPS dilution in Banks, unless, supported by incrementally higher income. By Apr'16, we may see nearly 90% transmission by banks. Going forward, various proactive reform initiatives by the Govt after "Rajan done his job" may help our market. Power sector reforms and starting of stalled projects will help to generate significant cash flow which in turn, will reduce the huge NPA associated with that sector too. Globally, after overnight US market rally amid "No Shutdown" and some dovish comments of FOMC members and China's improved PMI data may also help today. *Above 8050, NF may scale 8125-8200-8355 in the near term. * *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XCpsu2Mcnfg/VgyVFhO_MqI/EJE/VTxMUg3-LQk/s1600/BNF-30-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NXeWmxt8Rp0/VgyVHeIP54I/EJM/_0_uOQAaIWs/s1600/BNF-FIBB-30-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MLkmQ4LvddU/VgyVJs4UX9I/EJU/d_6Fb75dks8/s1600/BNF-WK-30-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HK-AfCMgLeA/VgyVMoL1zNI/EJc/Gsurj4qXWYc/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-30-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TvO2ZH2PJF4/VgyVQK1qpYI/EJk/SR-v2PswGJ0/s1600/BNF-TL-30-09-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aDOPliWAncM/VgyVUmZ3msI/EJs/sUuIRm8yBc4/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-MT-30-09-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23343] Fwd: Titan: 302-288 Might Be A Very Good Demand Zone
Forwarded Message Subject:Titan: 302-288 Might Be A Very Good Demand Zone Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2015 12:21:43 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Transforming itself into digital model (semi e-commerce)* *CMP: 327* *Buy either on sustained breakout above 331 or wait for dips around 302-288* *TGT: 370-450-475 (1-12M)* *TGT:525-600 (24-36M) (Only sustaining above 450)* *TSL<280* *Note: Consecutive closing below 280 for any reason, Titan might fall up to 260-240 zone, where it can be again accumulated for better buying average (investment purpose). * Titan suffered nearly 30% correction from its Feb'15 pick of around 448 in the last eight months against overall recent market corrections of around 12%. ** *Some of the reasons behind it may be: (As par management's own view)* * The deep discounting model of e-commerce players. * Weak consumer sentiment, specially in the rural & urban middle class people. * Withdrawal of "Golden Harvest" scheme by the company due to poor rural wedding season demand (for Jewellery & Watches). * Prolonged weakness in the gold prices. * Cross currency headwinds & cheap import of jewellery (legal or illegal). * Intense domestic competition from other jewellery, eye-wear and watch makers (both organized & unorganized players). * Recent trend of i-Watch among young tech savvy consumers. *Looking forward: * * Titan is planning is digital foray into e-commerce and will launch it shortly with appropriate strategy by expanding its physical stores for better consumer preferences. * All e-commerce players are in deep discounting model using its own equity capital !! Certainly this model will not survive and creating a bubble which can burst any time. Already, they are slowly reducing their discounts on various items.Almost all retail e-commerce players in India are still making huge loses. At some point of time, investors will want to see "money" (profit). * Titan is also in the process to launch semi version of i-Watch (smart watches like i-Phone). * The company is also diversifying into other related consumer goods like fragrance etc into semi-premium category. * Various regulatory concerns regarding gold import policy is reducing and gold supply is gradually improving now. Thus coupled with relatively cheap gold prices and reduced making charges, demand for jewellery should improve sequentially higher with forthcoming festival and wedding season. * Both Gold & USDINR should be in a predictable range as Fed will be in no hurry to hike interest rates in near future (Max: 0.25-0.50% in FY-16). * Due to expected economic recovery in FY-17 & 7-th pay commission in Jan'16, overall discretionary consumer spending may increase sequentially higher and Titan could be a beneficiary of that also. Thus, considering all the above pros & cons and recent corrective price action of the Titan scrip, it may be a good investment as risk reward ratio is favorable. *As par BG metric, valuations of Titan (in the current market parameters):* Current median value may be around: 330 (FY: 15) Projected fair valuations might be around: 355-385-425 (FY:16-18) *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2aGVBC3PUg8/Vg4ik1feYdI/EKE/DzupsiSVtGw/s1600/Titan-WK-01-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3BSSWejiKaY/Vg4imkHogdI/EKM/zAPsxnKli2I/s1600/Titan-Wk-MA-01-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RxQkJY_-GPo/Vg4ioK4IwsI/EKU/2oXAFGr4qek/s1600/Titan-Fibb-01-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-teZO2ittzg8/Vg4irobjwWI/EKc/oDcCsdQpzVs/s1600/Titan-TL-01-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-liLZWTuyGqk/Vg4it_CLJNI/EKk/jvjCDkSyhGg/s1600/Titan-Pattern-01-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HzEipet8em4/Vg4ivkKSXGI/AAAAEKs/-jB-1fRTs80/s1600/Titan-TL-LT-01-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are
[www.niftyviews.com:23346] Fwd: Greenply Industries: Sustain Above 1035 Can Fly To 1160-1275
Forwarded Message Subject:Greenply Industries: Sustain Above 1035 Can Fly To 1160-1275 Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2015 07:19:01 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Smart City theme, housing-for-all and urbanization (smart village) initiative may help* *CMP: 955* * * *Suggested Buying zone: Either on sustained break out above 960-990 or in dips around 915-885* * * *TGT: 1035-1160-1275 (1-12M)* * * *TGT: 1675-1800 (24-36M)* * * *TSL<870* *Note: Consecutive closing below 870-844 zone for any reason, GIL may fall up to 700 area, where it can be again accumulated for better buying average (investment purpose).* *Some key points & rationale:* GIL has demerged its low yielding laminate business into separate vertical which may result into much improved financial metrics and various analysts are re-rating the stock. Assam based GIL is in an ideal position to exploit the expected huge demand for P & MDF (Ply wood & Medium density fibreboard) interior furniture/infrastructure as a result of NAMO's smart city/village**theme, housing-for-all initiative. Also, with overall economic recovery as widely expected in FY-17, demand of corporate as well as small business office space might help P & MDF demand as well. GIL has strong pan India branch & distribution network and brand portfolios in the P market. Implementation of GST may also help it to improve margins and capture more market share because of reduced price differential between organized & unorganized sectors. There is growing awareness & acceptance of MDF ready made furniture among masses as it is affordable and stylus.The company is expected huge demand for it and planning to set up a new plant in AP and also foraying into other related products in the interior furniture & infrastructure segment. GIL also commenced commercial production of UV coated panels in its Pantnagar (Uttarakhand) plant. For GIL, as on 31/03/2015 (YOY): Net debt : Rs.258.28 / 549.50 cr Debt/Equity ratio: 0.53/0.94 Net Profit: Rs.121.82/114.47 cr EPS: 50.47/47.42 *As par BG metrics:* *Current median valuation may be around: 1010* * * *Projected fair valuations might be around: 1050-1110-1210 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LOW HIGHMEDIAN 200-DEMA10-DEMA GREENPLY56.11 200.52 20 1007.32 1008.19 1007.76 904.2 905.77 GREENPLY60.8260.65 20 1048.57 1049.48 1049.03 904.2 905.77 GREENPLY67.65 335.75 20 1106.07 1107.03 1106.55 904.2 905.77 GREENPLY80.7440.5 20 1208.05 1209.10 1208.57 904.2 905.77 Analytical Charts: <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sfDR8dqNNtE/VhFwMDFMFSI/EMA/pQVPiZ-Xldc/s1600/GIL-01-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-N9UoyHX85pI/VhFwNnZIxYI/EMI/aytbJsZCyUk/s1600/GIL-FIBB-01-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2Dbtg80_2bE/VhFwPmv0xkI/EMQ/MB1r8-al0H0/s1600/GIL-WK-01-10-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_1h9Ch5rdGk/VhFwTavQs_I/EMY/acxwi5aRTkI/s1600/GIL-TL-RSI-01-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WJ9GAPbYqC8/VhFwV7vNjWI/EMg/Gh7t5AQNyUU/s1600/GIL-PATTERN-01-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Js4LZnRhAl0/VhFwZAVYQ6I/EMo/0GublJ2H1x0/s1600/GIL-PATTERN-LT-01-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.in) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23344] Fwd: Godrej Prop : Sustain Above 336-350, Can Scale Up To 425-550 In Next Two Years
Forwarded Message Subject: Godrej Prop : Sustain Above 336-350, Can Scale Up To 425-550 In Next Two Years Date: Sun, 4 Oct 2015 09:53:06 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Improved sentiment in commercial as well as residential real estate space can help * *CMP: 320* *Suggested buying zone: Either above 336 or on dips around 310-300* *TGT: 360-390-425 (1-12M)* *TGT: 550 (24M)* *TSL<294* *Note: Consecutive closing below 294 for any reason, the scrip may fall up to 270-225, where it can be again accumulated for better buying average (investment purpose).* *Some key points & rationale:* ** Godrej Prop (GP) is in the limelight for the last few months for its BKC (Bandra Kurla Complex-Mumbai) commercial project monetisation talks. While the deal (Rs.1480 cr and the buyer is Abott India) was officially announced few days ago, it was in works for the last few months. This particular deal is very significant in the sense that it will almost halve the consolidated balance sheet debt of GP by FY-17. The deal pricing is also a positive surprise and indicates rising office rent and improved demand-supply dynamics in commercial properties thanks to global liquidity and "Made In India" or "Make India" initiative. In the last one year, as par various reports, demand for commercial property (office space) has grown significantly higher by around 70% (H2FY15), specially from MNC IT, Pharma and various start-ups companies in prime & growing places in various key metro cities. Looking forward, with expected overall economic recovery in India aided by lower funding cost, better operating leverages and depressed commodity prices, we can see improved sentiment among corporates and sequentially higher demand for commercial spaces. The "smart city & smart village (out side main city area)" theme along with infra push and forthcoming 7-th pay commission liquidity can translate higher demand for residential projects also. Apart from that, RBI's commitment of accommodative policy (lower interest rate environment) will help for entire real estate sector in the days ahead. *As par BG metrics:* *Current median valuation of GP may be around: 300* *Projected fair valuations might be around: 340-425-475 (FY:16-18) * SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LV SV MV 200-DEMA10-DEMA GODREJPROP 10.04 92.57 30 285.61 308.39 297.00 270.83 315.76 GODREJPROP 12.95 101.5 30 324.37 350.25 337.31 270.83 315.76 GODREJPROP 20.45 111.45 30 407.62 440.13 423.88 270.83 315.76 GODREJPROP 25.55 121.75 30 455.62 491.97 473.79 270.83 315.76 *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QQCgB4yINbY/VhCkmOfY2hI/ELI/BEEijijhjz8/s1600/GP-01-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-op3tm14bzmg/VhCknoAnvlI/ELQ/F6ZgZuV54Q0/s1600/GP-FIBB-01-10-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GkjU6vsrjEU/VhCkploYwuI/ELY/4hn_Eem83go/s1600/GP-WK-01-10-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KLdR8m2b-cU/VhCkrot0xYI/ELg/t71yETRtUiE/s1600/GP-TL-01-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-r4V7xtIX930/VhCkvOtvdGI/ELo/r06vztQCLsk/s1600/GP-PATTERN-01-10-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4Tw5V6fVEbk/VhCkwmMZSRI/AAAAELw/gsIt4xdQ24E/s1600/GP-TL-LT-01-10-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23326] Fwd: Motherson Sumi: "Making Too Much Out Of Volkswagen Issue" ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Motherson Sumi: "Making Too Much Out Of Volkswagen Issue" ? Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2015 09:07:49 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Another Case of "Buying A Good Business In Distress/Unusual Condition" ??* *CMP: 250* * * *Buy on dips:225-217* *TGT1: 295-335 (1-6M)* *TGT2: 395-435 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<210* *Note: Consecutive closing below 210 for any reason/adverse news-flow, MSS can fall to 200-190 or even 175-160 zone, where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average.* *Some of the near terms headwinds:* *VWG Issue:* This issue of "Emission Software Fudging" in a diesel vehicle model in US-VWG is perhaps blown out of proportion with MSS. Although on a consolidated basis gross revenue from VWG group is around 44%, its around 12% on a standalone basis. Audi is the largest OEM of MSS at around 22% and rests are more or less spread over other notable auto makers in India and other parts of the world (EU/US). Being the 2-nd largest OEM supplier to VWG, no doubt such negative news-flow definitely affect MSS and the stock price also tumbled by nearly 20% in the last few days after the VWG news broke out. This VWG issue is of engine emission software components as disclosed by the company itself (in one of its diesel model). This issue is not related to the overall quality and customer trust, VWG enjoyed globally. Again, sales of VWG is not significant in North America (NA) and this is not a recall issue with defective auto parts. VWG will simply recall the affected models and replace that emission software or the electronic circuit free of cost. MSS do not supply any engine components to VWG, it only supplied some exterior & interior auto accessories like mirrors,dash board, bumpers and door trims and that too is covered with adequate insurance for any unforeseen events. As par the MSS management the VWG reaction is "over exaggeration" and the company sees no significant impact on its total revenue as it supplies more in EU than in US/NA. As an auto maker, VWG is running normally, even in US as only one specific diesel variant is involved in that issue. "Auto recall" is very normal in any part of the world including US, where regulation is more stringent. VWG has already provisioned around $4.5 bln for likely fine/replacement costs in US against the expectations of around $18 bln as par reports. The new CEO (Ex Porsche chief) has also a very tough job in restoring the image & trust of the company as the investigations against such issue are spreading all over the world including India. All the other automakers can also be asked to clarify and investigated for similar issue. Although the US EPA (environmental protection agency) still maintains that the affected diesel cars of VWG is still safe to drive there (as its simply an pollution issue) they have not issued total recall yet, but likely to do that in the coming weeks after full investigations are completed. Having said all the above, ultimately VWG will likely be let off with a reasonable fine which the company is well capable of absorbing. In US, previously, another prominent auto maker GM faced similar regulatory issues and were let off with a reasonable fine also. In effect, VWG as a group will not be affected significantly simply because of employment issues both in US & EU. Also, auto makers in US are traditionally "good fund contributors" to main stream political parties and keeping in mind, the forthcoming 2016 presidential election campaign there, we might see that nothing "unusual" will happen and normal "business" will go on for VWG also. MSS is also targeting to diversify its business among other auto makers in different parts of the world, so that maximum 15% dependency will be there either by company/region wise by 2020. There are also*some other factors* which contributed some earning downgrades for MSS: Credit Suisse (CS) has downgraded the stock recently citing subdued copper price and over reliance on single customer (Maruti) in India. As par CS, performance of auto ancillaries is directly co-related with copper and with the falling prices of the same, the company also has to pass the cost benefits to its customers and that is hurting its pricing power. That's why CS has cut the FY17 earning by more than 10% (street consensus). Having said that, we have to keep in mind also that although commodity super bull cycle may be over, with the the recent low along with China jitters and their various initiatives to stimulate their economy, all commodities and specially copper might be in the process of bottoming out. Going ahead, we may see less capacity additions (supply) and stable demand, which will improve demand supply metri
[www.niftyviews.com:23327] Fwd: Ambuja Cement: 205-197 Might Be A Very Good Buying Zone
Forwarded Message Subject:Ambuja Cement: 205-197 Might Be A Very Good Buying Zone Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2015 12:37:48 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Govt's Smart City & Smart Village Theme And Infra Push May Help* *CMP: 207** ** **Buy: 205-197;** ** **TGT1: 230-260 (15-60 days)** ** **TGT2: 285-315 (6-12M)** ** **TSL<189* * *Note: Consecutive closing below 189 for any reason, it may fall to 173-145-135 zone, where it can be again accumulated for better investment buying average. Key Triggers: * Increase in cement prices and demand, specially in North/West (NW) India, where Ambuja Cement has strong presence. * Many more large infra projects like roads, metros, ports, airports and dedicated freight corridors are likely to come up in next few years in this NW region. * In the key NW market, Ambuja cement was able to increase prices substantially in the last few months, while raw material prices has come down due to depressed prices in commodities. This should help the company in margin expansion and improved bottom line. * We may also see merger of AC-Holcim-Lafrage into one single entity in the coming days, which will ensure better price discovery & other operational synergies amid less competition in India. * Post monsoon season, we may see much better demand recovery. Thus looking ahead, decreasing capacity additions and improved demand due to expected overall economic/infrastructure boom by FY-16 onward, will be beneficial for all the cement companies and Ambuja Cement may be one of them. *As par BG metrics:** ** **Current median valuation of Ambuja Cement may be around: 220** ** **Projected fair valuations might be around: 250-290-330 (FY:16-18)* SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)LV SV MV 200-DEMA10-DEMA AMBUJACEM 7.1665.11 30 221.80 211.92 216.86 229.02 209.08 AMBUJACEM 9.5 71.95 30 255.48 244.11 249.79 229.02 209.08 AMBUJACEM 12.75 79.55 30 295.97 282.80 289.38 229.02 209.08 AMBUJACEM 16.35 88.95 30 335.16 320.24 327.70 229.02 209.08 <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-npEPRJcZ3kE/VgdsWa2e_eI/EGA/YG1KD1710ms/s1600/Ambuja-24-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-roFAzWjGqy8/VgdsYFqnISI/EGI/E7HX7wilnAA/s1600/Ambuja-Fibb-24-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QXxWLeP8u4g/Vgdsar40S5I/EGQ/35ADu32ht0A/s1600/Ambuja-WK-24-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/--eve0EgNxzI/Vgdsc0TS7CI/EGY/raEntabKzOI/s1600/Ambuja-PATTERN-24-09-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iSJnLwKmCgc/VgdsfStzmEI/EGg/XGTc8Ft9ksc/s1600/Ambuja-TL-24-09-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V3RkzNHPoTs/VgdstmKL_3I/EGw/yvNcstw33Lo/s1600/Ambuja-tl-lt-24-09-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23628] Fwd: Crude Oi:At 7 yrs low--- Where It's Heading ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Crude Oi:At 7 yrs low--- Where It's Heading ? Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2015 21:06:48 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 36.76* * * *Buy: 36.70-36* *TGT: 40-45 (1-3M)* * * *TGT: 60-70 (6-12M)* * * *TSL<35* *Note: For crude, 37-35 is very vital technical support zone.Consecutive closing below 35, crude may further dips to 32-28-25.* Although Saudi Arabia is adamant not to cut any production immediately, geo-political factors may keep the falling price trend in check despite huge supply demand mismatch. Also growing pressure for falling Crude oil prices on the oil producing economies including Saudi Arab itself, may force OPEC to cut production at some point of time in early 2016. Another point is that crude oil producing companies may be shoring its futures against their huge inventory build up as hedge. Its a crowded short trade in crude and any positive news can cause sharp rally (short covering). Looking ahead, we may see better oil demand on the back of incremental growing vehicle sales in China and India. Also, China may add significant amount of Crude oil in its SPR in 2016, if crude fall more and together with that improving economic out look in EU/US/India, we may see crude being bottoming out around 32-25$ as worst global recession including China slow down may be over. *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-g99nToStME0/Vmb1cwbwOoI/FLc/8xURQqoH3A8/s1600/Crude-08-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7zE3WFtH000/Vmb1fntZ5WI/FLk/ZoKYPr1GCio/s1600/Crude-Fibb-08-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BvAi9BuAcnM/Vmb1hjjcYfI/FLs/2epIClWB_RA/s1600/Crude-WK-08-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tZS2yC0FJc4/Vmb1jufFfvI/FL0/5im4VchBbUk/s1600/Crude-Pattern-08-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xyWnFx5GMOI/Vmb1nqZaUmI/FL8/ttSBVQW8XMU/s1600/Crude-TL-08-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UaU93Ieb28A/Vmb1pwgI3hI/FME/nhTfbLWd9n0/s1600/Crude-PATTERN-MT-08-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23606] Fwd: Crompton Greaves: Has A Great Run Of Over 22% From Recent Low On The Back Of Demerger News---What's Next ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Crompton Greaves: Has A Great Run Of Over 22% From Recent Low On The Back Of Demerger News---What's Next ? Date: Thu, 3 Dec 2015 09:07:51 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect 230-250 only sustaining above 201-211 zone;* *Otherwise, 177-164 again on the card, if sustain below 191-187* *CMP: 197* *Sell either below 198 or on rise around 203-208-211;* *TGT: 187*-177-164* (1-2M)* *TSL> 215* Note: Consecutive closing above 215 for any reason, CRG can move up to 220-230*-250 zone and in that alternative scenario, sell position may be reversed and wait for next heavy supply zones around 230-250 for further selling/appropriate strategy. CRG has a dream run from its recent low of around 164 on the back of de-merger news with its consumer products division (fans/lights/pumps etc). After de-merger, the company is expected to increase its footprint into other industrial appliances including switch-gear market. Apart from this de-merger news, CRG has done a lots of de-leveraging/divestment in the last few months (land sale for Rs.490 cr; sale of Canada Power System at CAD 20 mln; exit from the distribution franchise in MH; stake sale in CG Lucy switch-gear ). Analysts are also expecting sell of its international power div and substantial reduction in consolidated debt (around Rs.2500 cr as on FY-15) to almost zero. Current consolidated TTM EPS is around 2.30, while on standalone basis it comes to around 11.82. Analysts are excited about its standalone earnings potential after de-merger and has given "thumbs up" to the stock. No doubt, CRG is a good stock and re-rating may be also on the card/happening on the back of de-merger/leverage news flow. But considering the recent rally for the stock, and time & price action on technical chart, the above positive sets of news flow might be already discounted by the market to a great extent and the scrip may face strong supply pressure around 201-211 zone and in that scenario, buy on dips around 177-164 area may be safe for better portfolio return. To be cont for more news & analytical inputs * * *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IuNBLMpbPrg/Vl-0FpVqw8I/FGY/mu_xMJVfzFo/s1600/CRG-02-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FwaM61e4Npw/Vl-0JRc0OiI/FGg/meoTiJgEWgc/s1600/CRG-FIBB-02-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qDHKTVGY1fs/Vl-0LAvT0jI/FGo/FoznYQZ7oL4/s1600/CRG-WK-02-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HematH1NWqA/Vl-0NE7HZ0I/FGw/jzeE98pnv6U/s1600/CRG-PATTERN-02-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-toKMtQu4MxY/Vl-0PXzIAKI/FG4/-AlAFN8mV7E/s1600/CRG-TL-02-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KhTMVV5n_90/Vl-0Xqp-cNI/FHA/OWyC_oTaLQg/s1600/CRG-TL-MT-02-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23616] Fwd: Havells: After A Dream Rally Of Around 29% In One Month---What's Next ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Havells: After A Dream Rally Of Around 29% In One Month---What's Next ? Date: Fri, 4 Dec 2015 09:00:09 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Expect 350-400 only sustaining above 305-315;* *Otherwise, sustaining below 283; it may gain fall to 274-256* *CMP: 300* * * *Sell around 305-310-315* * * *TGT: 283-274*-256-235 (1-3M)* * * *TSL> 322* Note: Consecutive closing above 322 for any reason, Havells can further rally to 350 zone in the near term, which is another strong supply zone and in that alternative scenario, sell positions may be reversed to wait for further selling/appropriate strategy around 350. Havells is truly lighting up again after hitting recent low of around 235 in early November and since then rallied by almost 29% to 302 yesterday. The massive rally may be fulled by factors like 7-th Pay Comm (expected to boost low ticket consumption along with affordable housing & electrical appliances); some uptick in industrial demand (better IIP data last month), change in domestic marketing policy of Havells (uniform dealer discounting instead of previous model of extra discount to large dealers/distributors), hope of GST (positive for Havells), and improving financial health of its EU based subsidiary (Sylvania). There is also some market talk that Havells may take over rival Kei Industries at substantial premium of around 175 (??) to the current market price of around 115. This may provide monopoly to Havells in the electrical wire segment. Although, strong balance sheet may help Havells in this regard, CCI & other regulatory approvals may be a challenge, beside exorbitant premium (if the deal goes through around 50% premium as par market buzz !!). There was also some news that Govt may withdraw subsidy on LED bulbs and give the same to some solar powered bulbs (negative for Havells). Yesterday City also sold also 61 laks shares of Havells for a part exit. Current TTM EPS of Havells is around 7.46 with consolidated BS Debt around Rs.296 cr (FY-15) and D/E ratio 0.16. No doubt, Havells is a good company having excellent brands, strong distribution network with improving financial metrics. The stock already rallied to a great extent within a very short time digesting the above sets of positive news flow and considering the recent time & price action on technical chart, 305-315 area is a strong supply zone. Thus buy on dips around 274-256 on any correction may be better for portfolio investment, considering the favourable risk/reward ratio. To be cont for more news & analytical inputs *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kiiuEJGAS2o/VmEEofOv28I/FH8/RzOySdaNjYI/s1600/Havells-03-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H9u-ke8Lj20/VmEEp0-qEUI/FIE/cRBw6JV8Kws/s1600/Havells-Fibb-03-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cV905qr_u_o/VmEEsaq8-GI/FIM/qHyMjx5jlx0/s1600/Havells-WK-03-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_3TaVHxkVV8/VmEEuWvCjdI/FIU/svvOQQuQ_uM/s1600/Havells-TL-03-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jp3qmylyVfE/VmEEyvgzlGI/FIc/OScEByDm2zM/s1600/Havells-Pattern-03-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-c8k51Zwaiio/VmEE02iDupI/FIk/XYWj8HZPQoc/s1600/Havells-Pattern-LT-03-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23624] Fwd: Market Mantra : Nifty Fut (Dec)
Forwarded Message
Subject:Market Mantra : Nifty Fut (Dec)
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2015 09:07:50 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*NF need to trade above at least 7900-7925 for any Pre-Santa Rally*
*GST debate & "Dog" (intolerance) controversy can still rock the
Parliament this week *
SGX NF: 7855 (CMP)
NSE-NF: 7829 (LTP)
As par morning SGX indication NSE-NF may open gap up around 7855-7885 zone.
*Technically NF need to sustain above 7900-7925 for targets of
7985-8015-8055 in the near term.*
*
*
*On the downside, sustain below 7850, NF may find some support around
7805-7785 area, below that 7725-7680 may be the immediate target.*
Friday's CCEA report about GST may strengthen the Cong's points/demands
about overall cap of 18% rate. But there are also many other points and
the proposal has to be passed through the empowered committee of
LS/state finance ministers. The time allotted for debate on GST in RS is
only four hours and there is also another crucial Real Estate Bill.
Cong also want one single rate on pan-India basis rather than multiple
rates & State GSTS. So, there may be further debates in GST and also
"Dog" remark controversy will be there in the LS. Thus we may see an
excited debate-full Parliament this week and basically Cong will not
let pass the GST so easily until the last moment of current Parliament
session. They will try to extract all the political mileage as possible
for the sake of this GST passage and will not let NAMO (BJP) to get the
full credit for it under any circumstances.
Incidentally, when UPA was in power and tried to pass this same GST,
then BJP also blocked the Parliament & its passage. We are truly a
victim of our shabby political system !!
Globally, although Draghi was supposed to come with a "Bazooka", he came
with a "Water Pistol"; but don't "fade" the man ("Mario whatever
required Draghi") !!
After last Friday's block buster NFP data in US, FFR is now projecting
above 78% of Fed lift- off on Fed day (Dec-16). Now all the attention is
shifted towards future Fed plan (path) of Fed Fund Rate. Will it be only
one & off (0.25-0.50%) or rapid @0.25% in every alternate Fed meet ?
Apart from poor inflation, some geo-political/economic risk, Fed may
also look into tepid MFG data in recent ISM surveys, coupled with very
strong dollar and together with that, the Dec year end factor may also
prevent it for immediate hike in Dec. But one thing is clear that, if
Fed failed to deliver this time (by not hiking), it will have to "pay
hell in dollars" (i.e. dollar will be sold heavily).
From the overall stance of ECB, it appears that they will prefer for
EUR/USD range of 1.15-1.05 for the time being (before Fed) to balance
everything. If Draghi came with a "Bazooka" (more QE), EUR may be
pushed towards parity (1.00) with USD immediately and there after if Fed
really act this time, EUR may drift further towards 0.90-0.85, making
the USD more strong. So the whole affair may be a co-ordinated central
banks action (Fed/ECB) to prevent any dis-orderly financial market in
the event of any real Fed action (because of policy divergence between
Fed & ECB).
As all the above possibilities are being discounted by the market, it
may be in a range even after Fed day with some temporary whipsaw movements.
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wrQcspn_s8w/VmT76j5x2II/FKg/Syk2hwajvQY/s1600/SGX-NF-07-12-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tkEhaP2DGC8/VmT7-QahIuI/FKo/WP_ydqBfdn8/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-07-12-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
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[www.niftyviews.com:23623] Fwd: Just Dial: May Dial Again 735-700 (If Sustained Below 820-800)
Forwarded Message Subject:Just Dial: May Dial Again 735-700 (If Sustained Below 820-800) Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2015 07:52:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com The recent fall again showed that Buy back of shares won't change Co's fundamentals *CMP: 824* * * *Sell either below 820 or on rise around 890-910* * * *TGT: 788-755-735*-690* * * *TSL> 850/925* *Note: Sustaining below 820, one may sell JD with TSL>850 for lower targets as above. If it does not sustain below 820, it may also rebound towards 845-870-890-910 zone and in that alternative scenario, one can even take the opportunity of rally to sell at higher range of around 890-910 with a TSL>925.* *Sustain above 925 for any reason, JD may scale 972-1000 zone which is again a strong supply zone for the stock and in that scenario, one can cover the shorts for an appropriate strategy near 1000 zone.* JD scrip corrected significantly by more than 50% in the last one year and over 40% from early July this year. In July, the scrip topped around 1290 on the story of company's plan of entry into e-commerce space (JD-Cash and JD-Omni; a cloud based plug& play solutions) beside its existing business model of online directory. The company was very confident about its "Search Plus-SP" as 90% of India's small local business or SMES has no website of its own. JD has around 15 mln SMES on its search platform which is around 35% of India's total SME business and is highest among its peers. The JD management was also very optimistic to compete with "Yellow Pages" and "destroy" its business model in the process. The company has also indicated that they are planning to sell its various subsidiaries by FY-17 (de-leveraging). JD also announced small buy back of shares recently (around 1.5% of its FFS at price up to 1550/- per equity share with record date was at 04/12/2015). But, the scrip already rallied by around 35% from its recent low in mid November as the buy back news was already there, since Aug. Market buzz was that JD will go for inorganic expansion/diversification in the highly competitive e-commerce space in India (likes of Flikpart, Snapdeal etc), but it appears that it abandoned/delayed that plan and are now returning excess cash in BS to shareholders by way of share buy back. But off late, analysts are increasingly skeptical about its business/revenue model. Recently GS downgraded JD for TP 750/- as it feels that JD's SP business model is not sustainable in the near term due to rising competition and company's inadequate investment. GS expects 19% revenue de-growth for the core operation of JD (search revenue) over FY-15-18 and along with it, rising operating expenses may cause downward bias for projected EPS in the coming quarters. Analysts at GS believe that JD's core search business has long term value due to its brand recall, market leadership and innovation but not immune to disruption. Going forward, successful execution of SP platform will be key for JD and for that, substantial investment by the company is required incrementally. Over the last few months, analysts are also somehow very skeptical over the entire "online/internet" listed space in India. Even Info-Edge scrip is on pressure for various reasons like lackluster results, increased competition, general economic & real estate slow down (classified advertisements affected in 99acres.com & naukri.com). Q2FY16 result of JD was very tepid and search revenue (paid listings) just grew by 0.8% sequentially (far lower than street estimates). Though Q2 PAT was around Rs.46.30 cr against consensus of Rs.41 cr, it was aided by other income of around Rs.26.26 cr (YOY-8.51; QOQ-7.12). Q2 EBITDA was also down by around 6.7% on YOY basis. The company has also entered into agreement with KIADB for setting up an IT Park in Bangalore. Looking forward, although the SP platform may be a place under one roof, where paid subscribers has search facilities for nearly everything in our day-to-day transactions, but in the age of free world of search engines (Googles and all) and individual e-commerce verticals, the business/revenue model seems to be very difficult, unless JD can execute something different of its own (who will book a "Ola" by going into SP or search for anything local by paying for it ??). Although JD may become a full e-commerce player in the coming days, it may be a M target also because of its brand image, local search data etc, but for that reasonable EV/EBITDA or EV/Sales (valuation) is also required; i.e. it will have to be more cheaper and properly valued wrt to its business potential. To be cont for more news inputs & analytics *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OiPyq1rTt1E/VmTpArep9ZI/FJY/tU-TXcNeRCM/s1600/JD-04-12-2
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23632] Fwd: Just Dial: May Dial Again 735-700 (If Sustained Below 820-800)
TSL is consecutive closing blw 255 zone ; i.e.250; now watch 244-234 & NF 7680-7625 zone; if these zones are respected, then buy it. On 09/12/2015 07:56 AM, dipak panchal wrote: Sir. ur adani port s.l hit 255 ltp 250 On 12/7/15, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: Forwarded Message Subject:Just Dial: May Dial Again 735-700 (If Sustained Below 820-800) Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2015 07:52:42 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com The recent fall again showed that Buy back of shares won't change Co's fundamentals *CMP: 824* * * *Sell either below 820 or on rise around 890-910* * * *TGT: 788-755-735*-690* * * *TSL> 850/925* *Note: Sustaining below 820, one may sell JD with TSL>850 for lower targets as above. If it does not sustain below 820, it may also rebound towards 845-870-890-910 zone and in that alternative scenario, one can even take the opportunity of rally to sell at higher range of around 890-910 with a TSL>925.* *Sustain above 925 for any reason, JD may scale 972-1000 zone which is again a strong supply zone for the stock and in that scenario, one can cover the shorts for an appropriate strategy near 1000 zone.* JD scrip corrected significantly by more than 50% in the last one year and over 40% from early July this year. In July, the scrip topped around 1290 on the story of company's plan of entry into e-commerce space (JD-Cash and JD-Omni; a cloud based plug& play solutions) beside its existing business model of online directory. The company was very confident about its "Search Plus-SP" as 90% of India's small local business or SMES has no website of its own. JD has around 15 mln SMES on its search platform which is around 35% of India's total SME business and is highest among its peers. The JD management was also very optimistic to compete with "Yellow Pages" and "destroy" its business model in the process. The company has also indicated that they are planning to sell its various subsidiaries by FY-17 (de-leveraging). JD also announced small buy back of shares recently (around 1.5% of its FFS at price up to 1550/- per equity share with record date was at 04/12/2015). But, the scrip already rallied by around 35% from its recent low in mid November as the buy back news was already there, since Aug. Market buzz was that JD will go for inorganic expansion/diversification in the highly competitive e-commerce space in India (likes of Flikpart, Snapdeal etc), but it appears that it abandoned/delayed that plan and are now returning excess cash in BS to shareholders by way of share buy back. But off late, analysts are increasingly skeptical about its business/revenue model. Recently GS downgraded JD for TP 750/- as it feels that JD's SP business model is not sustainable in the near term due to rising competition and company's inadequate investment. GS expects 19% revenue de-growth for the core operation of JD (search revenue) over FY-15-18 and along with it, rising operating expenses may cause downward bias for projected EPS in the coming quarters. Analysts at GS believe that JD's core search business has long term value due to its brand recall, market leadership and innovation but not immune to disruption. Going forward, successful execution of SP platform will be key for JD and for that, substantial investment by the company is required incrementally. Over the last few months, analysts are also somehow very skeptical over the entire "online/internet" listed space in India. Even Info-Edge scrip is on pressure for various reasons like lackluster results, increased competition, general economic & real estate slow down (classified advertisements affected in 99acres.com & naukri.com). Q2FY16 result of JD was very tepid and search revenue (paid listings) just grew by 0.8% sequentially (far lower than street estimates). Though Q2 PAT was around Rs.46.30 cr against consensus of Rs.41 cr, it was aided by other income of around Rs.26.26 cr (YOY-8.51; QOQ-7.12). Q2 EBITDA was also down by around 6.7% on YOY basis. The company has also entered into agreement with KIADB for setting up an IT Park in Bangalore. Looking forward, although the SP platform may be a place under one roof, where paid subscribers has search facilities for nearly everything in our day-to-day transactions, but in the age of free world of search engines (Googles and all) and individual e-commerce verticals, the business/revenue model seems to be very difficult, unless JD can execute something different of its own (who will book a "Ola" by going into SP or search for anything local by paying for it ??). Although JD may become a full e-commerce player in the coming days, it may be a M target also because of its brand image, local search data etc, but for that reasonable EV/EBITDA or EV/Sales (valuation) is also required; i.e. it will have to be more cheaper and prop
[www.niftyviews.com:23631] Fwd: Bata India: A Household Brand, That You Can't Ignore---
Forwarded Message Subject:Bata India: A Household Brand, That You Can't Ignore--- Date: Wed, 9 Dec 2015 09:40:02 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Bata, 477-461 May Be A Very Good Demand Zone* * * *It may be one of the beneficiary of the 7-th Pay Comm * *(low ticket purchase) & GST * *CMP: 495* *Either buy on breakout above 505 or in dips around 477-461;* *TGT: 532-550-580 (1-3M)* *TGT: 622-748 (12-24M)* *TSL<455* Note: Consecutive closing below 455 for any reason, Bata may further fall to 430*-400 & 390-374 zone and one may again accumulate there around 430, being another strong demand zone for better investment buying average. Q2FY16 result of Bata was below street estimates and decline in OPM by 3% to 8.5% was also very disappointing. Analysts were expecting an OPM of around 11% in Q2. In Q2, nearly all the cost components (raw material costs, rent etc) has increased quite a bit; but management was very optimistic about the Q2 result despite overall economic slowdown in India. Looking ahead, Bata is taking necessary initiatives to expand its product offer, focusing on SSSG and strengthening of its e-commerce business by offering 100 new footwear designs exclusively to attract a large consumer base. With expected overall economic recovery in India in the coming quarters & improvement in consumer sentiment, we may see better performance of Bata in FY-17. Also, overall structure of 7-th Pay comm may boost lower ticket purchase to a great extent rather than big ticket purchase and Bata, being a house hold name having excellent brand recall & distribution network, may be one of the key beneficiary. In footwear industry, there is good competition from unorganized sector having advantage of no need for pay any taxes (VAT/ED etc); i.e. they are operating in an "unaccounted money" atmosphere. Hopefully after implementation of GST and Govt's current initiative of "plastic/digital money" everywhere, may compel this unorganized sector to come into ambit of "tax/accounted money" system and the price differential between organized & unorganized sector will reduce to some extent. This will be also good for Bata in the days ahead. *As par BG metrics and current market parameters :* (on standalone TTM & FWD EPS basis) Present median valuation of Bata may be around: 540 (FY-15/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around : 605-680-760 (FY:16-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA BATAINDIA 18.65 77.44 30 552.24 522.12 537.18 545.07 487.24 BATAINDIA 23.55 92.95 30 620.56 586.72 603.64 545.07 487.24 BATAINDIA 29.55 112.55 30 695.13 657.22 676.17 545.07 487.24 BATAINDIA 36.95 136.55 30 777.31 734.92 756.11 545.07 487.24 *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/--OICtP3IXuc/VmehhNN3XsI/FMU/cUc2gNNIRXA/s1600/Bata-08-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pMrHFyTpK7g/Vmehiq7TqDI/FMc/3VgJqzXIJFY/s1600/Bata-Fibb-08-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HGrxgFuFLt8/VmehkRQLaNI/FMk/fM5ImZXx3Lw/s1600/Bata-WK-08-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7PIkKSXMxwQ/VmehmIbuJhI/FMs/TbbYzMqU1LI/s1600/Bata-Pattern-08-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Fz0LU_CgkY/VmehnTDOuLI/FM0/OI_2ZYOd9vk/s1600/Bata-TL-08-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lRdOIw7ExtY/VmehpNUAjsI/FM8/-Uh9r24bWhc/s1600/Bata-EW-08-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23635] Fwd: S: 2050-2040 May Be A Very Good Support For Tgt Of 2200 In 2016
Forwarded Message Subject: S: 2050-2040 May Be A Very Good Support For Tgt Of 2200 In 2016 Date: Wed, 9 Dec 2015 20:43:18 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 2057* * * *Buy around: 2050-2040* * * *TGT: 2110-2135-2200 (1-12M)* * * *TSL<2030* Note: Consecutive closing below 2030 for any reason, S can fall up to 2000-1980 & 1950-1900 zone in the worst bear case scenario (2016/FY:17) * * *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9S6FKxpqcdw/VmhB82NoOhI/FNQ/iH_KoiDgTSo/s1600/S%2526P-09-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Yp5idpbnjNA/VmhCBJdafVI/FNY/_2fyU9cGeik/s1600/S%2526P-FIBB-21-07-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YIvQLXDc7JY/VmhCEpTEVEI/FNg/k_H3uiEqSlk/s1600/S%2526P-MA-09-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-up4g088946g/VmhCH-iYl6I/FNo/c_4w4tKYWhg/s1600/S%2526P-PATTERN-09-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2B5ewvsKzi4/VmhCNAczBHI/FNw/OVTn8oADUTk/s1600/S%2526P-TL-09-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Yf9i5fHz_jc/VmhCQsnGNPI/FN4/HtwtenP6K2s/s1600/S%2526P-EW-09-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23603] Fwd: Bharti Airtel: 315 May Be A Strong Demand Zone Despite "Project Leap"
Forwarded Message Subject: Bharti Airtel: 315 May Be A Strong Demand Zone Despite "Project Leap" Date: Wed, 2 Dec 2015 09:07:03 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Bharti, 345-375 may be the near term target * *Despite Rs.600 bln capex over the next three years, * *credit rating of Bharti is unaffected-S* *CMP: 323* * * *Buy on dips around: 315* * * *TGT: 345-375-388-400 (1-6M)* * * *TGT: 452-485 & 605 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<305-300* Note:Looking at the chart, consecutive closing below 300 in Bharti for any reason, the stock may further fall up to 280*-260 area where it may be again accumulated for better investment buying average as 280 is a major technical support area for the stock. To combat growing threat from R-JIO and to improve overall network congestion ( "call drop" issues etc), Bharti has unveiled massive capex plan of Rs.6 cr for next three years. Although this capex will be funded mainly through internal accruals, there may be adverse effect in its projected cash flow and managing the spectrum leverage in future. It may also further stretch its Balance Sheet, where debt level is still significantly high despite ongoing effort of de-leverage/tower asset sales in SA. Analysts are also concerned over its ROE in the near term due to tepid telecom ARPU in India. But, S believes that despite this capex of Rs.600 bln, the FFO (Funds From Operation) to debt ratio may be around 25% in FY-18 compared with earlier expectation of 30%. Its presently stands around 21% for FY-15 with below 20% being the trigger line. As par S, Bharti's planned Rs.600 bln investments over next three years includes Rs.150-170 bln for annual capital expenditure; Rs.30-40 bln annually for spectrum payments from FY-17 and about Rs.60 bln for possible additional spectrum acquisition over the next two years (discretionary or optional). Thus, in that new spectrum scenario, there may be additional Rs.150 bln cash outflow compared with the earlier projections (Rs.420-450 bln already guided) and the FFO/Debt ratio will be around 25%. The stock has already corrected by around 15% from its recent top and now 315-300 is a strong technical support area for a good buying opportunist with better risk/reward ratio. It may be the only listed telecom company in India, which can afford to compete with the likely aggression of R-JIO. To be cont for some more news & analytical inputs Analytical Charts: <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oiKXZLzNEGM/Vl5iyK2ozcI/FFY/R8nFi3nYGhc/s1600/Bharti-01-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UrleE1lvHLA/Vl5i2aCdOrI/FFg/IZbMdYFbVgQ/s1600/Bharti-FIBB-01-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9aupJgQAmq0/Vl5i5ZPHcUI/FFo/MPbMnX2CCII/s1600/Bharti-WK-01-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-a1Gh-QARuB0/Vl5jHk8xetI/FFw/aKNGF0yHvD4/s1600/Bharti-Pattern-01-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7GJ_9i1KrWc/Vl5jK2rx6xI/FF4/zmkXGnmjxQ4/s1600/Bharti-TL-01-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JZRtAZmsmyU/Vl5jNqi8vYI/FGA/wbZgpTur7Nk/s1600/Bharti-TL-RSI-01-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23626] Fwd: Nifty : How Is It Looking Ahead Of Fed & What's In Store For 2016 ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty : How Is It Looking Ahead Of Fed & What's In Store For 2016 ? Date: Tue, 8 Dec 2015 09:41:07 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com We are approaching the all important Fed day (Dec-16) after ECB failed to stimulate the market as expected. Draghi came with a "water pistol" instead of a "Bazooka"; but the market don't underestimate (fade) "Mario whatever it takes Draghi" so easily and the last Friday's NY Q session is an example of Draghi's jawbone (verbal intervention power). Similarly, after months/years of verbal intervention, Fed now seems to be determined to act this time as they don't want to fall behind the inflation curve (although inflation in us is around 1.3%, nowhere near the Fed's target of 2%; but Fed is anticipating higher core inflation in the years ahead on the back of increasing current wage inflation trend despite tepid commodity prices). There is no doubt that US economy is progressing quite well in the job market which is creating nearly 200 k jobs every month on an average with the current unemployment rate of around 5%. At this rate the unemployment rate may fall to 4% in 2016 in US !!. But the manufacturing & trade data in US is quite sluggish and the ISM surveys indicates the 2009 pre-recession like conditions. Due to very strong USD and apparently sluggish internal real economy (as increase in inventory suggests), both exports & imports are suffering in US. Another factor is that a relatively strong currency (USD) is equivalent to hike in the real rate of interest in an economy itself (1% strength in currency may be equivalent to 0.25% of rate hike). Thus keeping in mind all the factors, as par text book economy, Fed might go in for a 0.25-0.50% rate hike on Dec-16th to balance everything (as Fed's inability to act this time may be also interpreted as their lack of confidence on US & global/China economy and market may be again sold off). FFR is also indicating a probability of above 78% for rate hike this time and barring some unexpected geo-political factors and financial market dooms day (like sudden China crash etc), Fed is likely to go for a "one & off" rate hike this time (0.25-0.50% by Dec'15 & Apr'16). Fed may not be ultra hawkish to increase rate @0.25% in every bi-monthly meet to go for a 1.25-1.50% FFR by Dec'2016 as recovery in US economy is still fragile. Moreover, in the 2016 US election year, Fed may not choose to experiment too much risking to de-stabilize the financial market. Thus keeping the Wall street in a stable condition, Fed/US Govt might go for some structural targeted mini stimulus in different QQE forms or even putting some sort of negative interest rate intended for the Main street in 2016. Due to the Dec year end factor, Fed may not choose to act in this time of "Santa Claus" and instead give indication that they will start to act from early next year (Feb'16). As the above likely Fed stance (0.25-0.50% one & off token rate hike by Dec'15 or Feb-Apr'16) is already being discounted by the market to a great extent, overall market reaction may be within a defined range except some whipsaw movements for a day/two. If the Fed indicates that they are going to hike in every/alternate bi-monthly meet for a FFR target of 1.25-1.50% by Dec'2016, then expect some volatile market in 2016. Fed may also keep in mind the policy divergence between it & ECB. Also, continuous stance of QQE by BOJ and PBOC are making USD more stronger. Even if Fed decides to go for a hike, there will be no dearth of liquidity because of continuous accomodative stance of other three major central bankers of the world. The four major pillars of our global economy (FED/ECB/BOJ/PBOC) will not let to happen a "dooms day" for the global financial market under any circumstances unlike in 2008 "Lehman Crisis". India, as an EM is a "bright spot" due to its 4-D (democracy/demography/demand/deregulation) appeal. Due to the expected transmission of lower rates, tepid commodity prices and better operating leverages we may see incremental better earnings/margin expansions in the quarters ahead. Implementation of GST and other reforms will also likely to take effect after 2-3 years in the earnings. Traditionally, Indian consumer demand is largely over dependent on so called "Black/unaccounted" money. The present transformation of the economy towards "White/clean/accounted" money is taking its time and that may be one of the reason of the tepid earnings despite better operating leverages. Going forward, once this transformation is complete, we may see better consumer demands and earnings by FY-17-19 and by that time, NPL/NPA situations in Indian banking system may also be improved
[www.niftyviews.com:23637] Fwd: CESC: A Victim Of IPL Jinx & Unrelated Diversification ?
Forwarded Message Subject:CESC: A Victim Of IPL Jinx & Unrelated Diversification ? Date: Thu, 10 Dec 2015 09:44:26 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For CESC, 490-475 May Be A Good Support Zone* * * *As Par Management, Concern Of Cash-Flow * *On CESC For IPL Is Overdone* *CMP: 517* * * *Either buy on breakout above 535-540 or wait for dips around 490-475:* * * *TGT: 560-580*-612 (1-6M)* * * *TGT:710-826-860 & 1030 (12-24M)* * * *TSL<470* Note: Consecutive closing below 470 for any reason, CESC can fall up to 450-425-395* zone in the near term under worst bear case scenario. Market is not amused about entry of CESC into Pune IPL Team and terming it as an unrelated & unnecessary investment/ risky diversification for the power distribution company, which has steady cash-flow from its core operations so far. Analysts at Antique are apprehending around Rs.100 cr cash outflow for this IPL venture on account of buying players and other operational expenses. But the CESC management is maintaining that cash-flow outgo may not be huge considering the overall size of CESC group and on a standalone basis CESC will not be affected at all. Its another listed group company (Phillips Carbon Black), which may be affected to some extent for any net cash-outflow. Even the estimate given by CESC for this IPL venture may be around Rs.98 cr as the company will pay Rs.32 cr to BCCI (reverse bidding) and has estimated Rs.66 cr for players buying. The CEO of CESC although explained that participation in the IPL would be a reward branding exercise but market is not buying that argument either, because except Spencer & may be Saraegama, the group does not have any major consumer fencing business and spending such huge amount (close to Rs.100 cr over two years ??) on brand building is devoid of any logic. But there may be some sort of tax savings on account of IPL investment for the overall group (Phillips Carbon ??). As par BG metrics & current market parameters (without this IPL fallout on net earnings) (on standalone TTM & FWD EPS) Present median valuation of CESC may be around: 545-560 (FY:15-16/TTM) Projected fair valuations might be around: 595-625 (FY:17-18/FWD) SCRIP EPS(TTM)BV(Act) P/E(AVG)Low HighMedian 200-DEMA10-DEMA CESC52.79 545.26 10 548.28 538.59 543.43 569.44 549.49 CESC56.25 613.45 10 565.96 555.96 560.96 569.44 549.49 CESC62.15 690.95 10 594.90 584.39 589.64 569.44 549.49 CESC68.95 776.35 10 626.60 615.53 621.06 569.44 549.49 *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vsJ2byvwRaw/Vmj5VNJ-KbI/FOI/tJXljuxHVSA/s1600/CESC-09-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7qzWFD8TnP8/Vmj5do0pr9I/FOQ/lejvbERpxrM/s1600/CESC-FIBB-09-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Nr-cvx8sPGs/Vmj5fgfNrMI/FOY/S0b7zU6r838/s1600/CESC-WK-09-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6m_hIafZmMI/Vmj5hE4UeeI/FOg/tbBSLP_gcTA/s1600/CESC-PATTERN-09-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NkQwX8-gsY4/Vmj5jmuHfJI/FOo/x03l04yHuZA/s1600/CESC-PATTERN-LT-09-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uwwFH4O5qt0/Vmj5mCc7y3I/FOw/V3Mm3I6xJxo/s1600/CESC-TL-09-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23670] Fwd: Nifty Fut (Dec) : What's In Store After "Slightly Hawkish" Fed Dot-Plots & ongoing GST Drama ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Nifty Fut (Dec) : What's In Store After "Slightly Hawkish" Fed Dot-Plots & ongoing GST Drama ? Date: Thu, 17 Dec 2015 09:03:54 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com SGX NF: 7783 (CMP) NSE NF: 7768 As par early SGX indication NF may open around 7780-7800 zone after "Fed night". *Technically, NF has to sustain over 7805-7820 area for target of 7865-7915 & 7965-8005 in the short term.* * * *On the downside, inability to sustain over 7805-7820 zone for any reason, NF may fall towards 7740-7725 & 7699-7627-7586-7540 area by the next few days.* As widely expected, Fed yesterday came out of its long "hide & seek" game and hiked FFR by 0.25% with an apparently dovish/soothing communications.The decision seems to have injected some confidence in equity markets, but overall, S Fut is now trading fractionally higher when NF closed yesterday after some overnight volatility. The fact that none of the ten FOMC members has dissented in to the yesterday's Fed hike and the 2016 median dot-plots indicating a FFR of around 1.375% by Dec'16, this may be some what more hawkish than the market expected. The projected 2016 dot-plots indicating that Fed may hike interest @0.25% in almost every quarter (alternate meeting-Apr/June/Oct/Dec'16) to make the 2016 FFR around 1.25-1.50%. Although the 2017 Fed dot-plots is slightly lowered, the same trend may be continued till 2017 (gradual hike as stressed by Fed). Going forward, Fed will closely watch inflation & other US economic parameters for appropriate action on its FFR (i.e. data dependent). For India, successive gradual rate hikes by Fed means that further rate cut ability of RBI may be diminished and we can see maximum one 0.25% cut by H2FY17, depending upon the inflation curve.Focus will be full transmission by banks for the 1.25% rate cuts already done by RBI so far. Looking ahead, as par analysts, Govt need to fix spiraling food inflation by fixing supply side lacuna to keep the RBI's overall CPI guidance of 4% by 2017-18. As a result of gradual Fed rate hikes, the USD may appreciate significantly and together with US rate differential, USDINR may run towards 71 level, unless RBI intervenes heavily. Also continuous Chinese Yuan depreciation may cause some more pressure on Indian economy in the days ahead. CLSA is projecting a USDINR range of 71-74 in FY:2017-18 !! A strong USD means more headwinds for some of the heavily indebted Indian corporates in terms of the USD dominated debts, unless properly hedged. Also, going forward, ECB & BOJ may need less QQE as a result of policy divergence between them & Fed, their respective currencies will stay lower wrt to USD. We may even see some rate hikes from G10 countries in the months ahead (such as UK) to prevent excessive capital outflows because of rate differential with USD. Back to our home, ongoing GST & political drama is getting serious day-by-day and it may not be possible to pass it in the current Winter session of Parliament which will end on 23-rd Dec. Though in the last six days, we may see more drama as political mud-slugging is going on heavily with each other, we may see some last minute compromise on GST as "everything is possible in war & politics" (though seems to be a very remote chance at this point of time with Cong leadership is getting ready for "Jail" instead of "Bail" on planned 19-th Dec Court drama and it appeared that BJP is itself now backtracking for quick passage of GST and now talking about next session in March for the same). *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MaB-29Iq6sE/VnIpxeKExFI/FWE/wmNp3r3AZPE/s1600/SGX-NF-17-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-trjjB53WKRw/VnIpz5kO29I/FWM/5GqKyivA8nU/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-17-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com"
[www.niftyviews.com:23656] Fwd: Bank Nifty Fut (Dec): What's Next Ahead Of Fed & GST Drama ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Bank Nifty Fut (Dec): What's Next Ahead Of Fed & GST Drama ? Date: Tue, 15 Dec 2015 08:36:00 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *BNF Need To Sustain Above 16500-660 For 17000-300* *Otherwise Below 16250-140 Expect 15780-700* *Over Concern (?) over stressed assets dragging the BNF--* *Trading Levels: BNF (Dec)* LTP: 16385 SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 16500 16625-660* 16717-800 16935-997* 17066-108 17177-270 <16450 Weak < 16450 16250-140* 15985-917 15780-700* 15560-485 15325-175 >16500 For the last few weeks BNF corrects by around 10% against the broader market (Nifty) correction of around 5%. The primary reason for this under performance may be renewed concern by RBI over stressed asset quality of some of the banks, SDR & other debt restructuring mechanism being employed by the banks, issues of base rate cut transmissions and new methodology of base rate calculation to be effective by FY-17. RBI is also concerned about overall NPL/NPA situation of banks, specially in PSBS and growing tendency of some of the banks to hide the actual stressed assets in the system by financial reporting juglary/tricks. Market may be also concerned over highly leveraged corporate loan accounts in some of the banks and impending Fed rate hike effect on USD dominated debts of the corporate India. Also recent data on inflation, which is indicating an upward trend in both core & food inflation, may hinder prospect of aggressive rate cut by RBI in 2016 (FY-17). There is also some concern over wage inflation effect due to 7-th Pay Comm and USD outflow fear after Fed hike and its FFR guidance. As a result, many blue chip banks are now hovering near or below their 52-wks low. Among all these concerns, there is a light of hope as Moody's think that " Indian banks will get more resilient despite bad debts" due to good banking regulation, liquidity back up by the Govt (for PSBS) and highly expected overall economic recovery along with infra boom and kick start of stalled projects in India. *Technically, BNF may be in the corrective C wave in monthly EW cycle and the projected target of the same is near 16250. Further, recent price action suggests that sustain below 16250-140 for any reason, BNF may dips to 15780-700. Consecutive closing below 15700, BNF may further fall towards 15000 zone in the near term.* *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0ZnMqjG9-8M/Vm9_qRkmWzI/FTI/MTIery6Zt2g/s1600/BNF-14-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P_HPuCdypkk/Vm9_sRqXQNI/FTQ/vigx_7J5_AU/s1600/BNF-FIBB-14-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pjmqbsaJviM/Vm9_u7nMa0I/FTY/hDE6MYpRFn0/s1600/BNF-WK-14-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bzyERgkCQCI/Vm9_x1r-n6I/FTg/AbA3MznwQkk/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-14-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FQnW3rp7asw/Vm9_0bnMg2I/FTo/c1e3dg3ZPto/s1600/BNF-TL-14-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0yE4ubMPM3Y/Vm9_2tuBO0I/AAAAFTw/UFTP-QmOlqE/s1600/BNF-EW-14-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23649] Fwd: USDJPY: What's Next Ahead Of Fed ?
Forwarded Message Subject:USDJPY: What's Next Ahead Of Fed ? Date: Sat, 12 Dec 2015 12:47:05 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Junk bond and Oil worries fading Fed hike probability in Dec ?? * *Looking at the chart, *USDJPY (CMP: 120.90) has strong support around 120-119 and consecutive closing below that may target 116-114 area in the near term. *On the upside,* sustain above 121.50-122.50 area, it may target 124-126 (123.65-125.80) in the short to medium term. *Over all range* of USDJPY might be around 116-122-126 in 2016 (FY:17) and 122 may be an equilibrium rate for BOJ, keeping in mind Japan's overall domestic economy, inflation & export competitiveness and it will adjust its QQE accordingly with close co-ordination with Fed & ECB (balancing act). For the last two days USDJPY and S fall significantly on junk bond and oil worries. As par reports, there were defaults in some junk bond redemption requests and many more may be in the lines. Also, there is a market buzz that US congress may lift the 40 years old ban on export of its oil as a package of its spending and tax measures (but its not finalized as par DJ reports). This will be good for USD & US trade balance, but may be more bad news for oil, though as par some report, demand for oil outstrips supply in the last few weeks after a long time. Below $35-32, crude oil may fall further to $28-25-20 and if sustained there for mid to long term, many oil producing companies will force to shut down as their average cost of production may be somewhere between $25-20 and this may cause severe credit defaults in the financial system (oil bonds will become junk bonds !!). *This scenario of junk & oil bonds, may remind Fed about the 2008 sub-prime housing crisis & subsequent credit defaults. Thus Fed may also postpone Dec rate hike to delay it towards Feb-Apr'2016 for further assessments of the real situation.* FFR is now indicating Dec Fed rate hike probability of around 72% from previous high of 78%. On the other side, if Fed does not act this time, it will be a question of credibility on Fed and in future, market may not believe in Fed at all and it may also be interpreted as "lack of confidence" on the part of Fed on US/Global economy. USD will be again sold off heavily and that's what Fed may exactly wants at this moments as too much strong USD will become a headwind for US economy also. This may be really a catch-22 situation this time for Fed !! *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SZRepupXTYU/VmvEDxrsMRI/FRE/EpgBqkQ5N2s/s1600/USDJPY-11-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fly2LhJ4mJk/VmvEL91pRoI/FRM/oCAtPtvrGQo/s1600/USDJPY-FIBB-11-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ku7Rbjc1ulc/VmvENuF3lRI/FRU/pi92kx27qdE/s1600/USDJPY-WK-11-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w08BRhGSpRg/VmvEQdKG9nI/FRc/DMKqImk_Vso/s1600/USDJPY-PATTERN-11-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-65boXN1BBoA/VmvEVKCCohI/FRk/zn1bU0y-Glw/s1600/USDJPY-TL-11-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rx5YbqhmJwI/VmvE9sguYOI/FRs/8zw8mGSm3Xg/s1600/USDJPY-TL-MT-11-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23641] Fwd: Cairn India: 120-115 May Be A Very Good Buying Zone
Forwarded Message Subject:Cairn India: 120-115 May Be A Very Good Buying Zone Date: Fri, 11 Dec 2015 09:35:47 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 126* * * *Buy on dips near 120-115* * * *TGT: 133-142-155*-175 (1-12M)* * * *TGT: 191-263 (24-36M) (without VEDL proposed merger scenario)* * * *TSL< 110/105* Note:Time & price action on the technical chart suggests that consecutive closing below 110-105 zone for any reason, Cairn may further fall to 100-94*-87 & 79-68 area in the worst bear case scenario and in that case, one can accumulate around 94-87 (being another strong support zone) for better investment buying average. Cairn is under pressure for crash in crude oil prices apart form VEDL merger fiasco. Also a minority retail shareholder recently filed a petition in Mumbai HC against Cairn & VEDL alleging that the 2014 loan of $1.25 bln by Cairn Plc to VEDL is illegal. The case is scheduled to be heard in Jan'16. Cairn Plc also wrote a letter to our FM recently to seek $700 mln damage for the IT department action & attachment, which caused loss of value of its shareholding in Cairn India. In any way, now Crude is trading near its seven yrs low around $36.50 due to various factors. Technically, Crude is oversold & its a crowded trade. Crude has good support of $35-32 and if this level does not break convincingly, then expect a dead cat bounce up to $45 in the near term. As performance of Cairn is directly proportional to Crude oil prices, in that scenario, expect some rally in Cairn scrip up to 155 in the near term. In future, if the proposed VEDL merger ratio is sweetened in favour of minority shareholder (Cairn Plc & LIC), then expect further rally in Cairn. Also the Indian IT dept has attached the 9.78% Equity share holding of Cairn Plc in Cairn India for the ongoing tax disputes with it and without the approval of IT dept, this shareholding can't be transferred to VEDL. There will be also other various hurdles for VEDL for this merger and if for any reason, merger can't happen in the near term or the deal is sweetened significantly, then Cairn may rally significantly towards 200 level. As par some analysis, on standalone basis & Cairn's cash balance in its BS, Cairn can be valued around 197 !! *Analytical Charts: * <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ED1fk3hyIZY/VmpE6OzezsI/FQA/YZjBdT-M4Uc/s1600/Cairn-10-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JNMIH4PQhEY/VmpE8E_V-yI/FQI/8kPGhWSJAnw/s1600/Cairn-Fibb-10-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AOQuBl7cf70/VmpE-k379yI/FQQ/AW1P0eXJgZA/s1600/Cairn-WK-10-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XhyoXl-78_4/VmpFAqTncoI/FQY/evqegegaYpo/s1600/Cairn-Pattern-10-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WXqIUaWqybw/VmpFCmMAOyI/FQg/LYmTfAY7WV4/s1600/Cairn-TL-10-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NOOXRkTRrGY/VmpFE-324jI/FQo/42c3EtOO-e4/s1600/Cairn-TL-LT-10-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23640] Fwd: EURUSD: How Far It Could Fall, If Fed Really Opted For Lift-Off This Time ?
Forwarded Message Subject: EURUSD: How Far It Could Fall, If Fed Really Opted For Lift-Off This Time ? Date: Thu, 10 Dec 2015 22:09:48 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Policy divergence between Fed & ECB may cause * *EURUSD to fall below parity in 2016* *CMP: 1.0955* * * *Sell <1.11 (1.10984)* * * *TGT: 1.07-1.04*-0.97-0.90 (1-12M/FY-17)* * * *TSL>1.12 (1.11975)* *Note: Consecutive closing above 1.12 for any reason, EURUSD can rally up to 1.15-1.17-1.21 in the alternative scenario (most unlikely).* As we are heading towards Dec-16, the Fed Day, market has already discounted to a great extent a "one & off" token rate hike (0.25-0.50%) by Dec'15-Apr'16 and FFR is also projecting around 80% probability of this. Now the market is looking for FFR guidance in 2016. Will it be "one & off" token lift off or 0.25% increase in every alternate Fed meet to make the FFR 1.25-1.75% by Dec'16-Apr'17? On the other side, ECB seems to be waiting for real Fed day action & its reaction on EURUSD. A hawkish Fed will automatically cause EUR to drift towards 1.05 and an ultra hawkish FOMC statement/guidance will cause it towards parity or even below it (0.97-0.90) with out any further ECB QQE. Considering all the factors like low inflation in US, tepid manufacturing data, strong USD (which is hurting US economy on export front) along with fragile strength of domestic economy, (as inventory built up & trade data suggests) and block buster job reports, Fed may not be ultra hawkish and might go for a token hike this time with slightly dovish tone to keep everything in balance. Fed may also surprise the street for the Dec year end factor and they might opt for Feb-Apr'16 hike and they will take excuse for more data to confirm about inherent strength of US economy and do not want to experiment (destabilize) at Dec year end (Geo-Political Factor). In that scenario, it will be also interpreted as lack of confidence of Fed on US/Global/China economy and USD will be again sold. Also, a strong USD might be acting as a proxy for higher real interest rate itself !! Following Fed rate hike & subsequent FFR guidance, we may see series of rate hikes both in DM & EM to keep the currency interest rate differential in check and to prevent massive USD outflows. Also, China may devalue its Yuan as they are now holding a substantial amount of EUR by trimming its USD reserves (in case of ultra hawkish Fed). For India, without much reform on the ground & political logjam, we may see moderate to massive USD out flows (specially from bonds) and it will be very difficult for RBI to cut rates further in FY-17 in order to keep the USDINR interest rate differential in check, because further rate cut will cause more USD outflows (in case of ultra hawkish Fed) and USDINR may break 70 level. Thus, considering all the EM & DM and its own domestic factors, Fed will not be ultra hawkish in 2016, which is also the US Presidential Election Year and no Govt will like to go for an election with a disorderly financial market. At best, Fed will go for a token "one & off" rate hike (0.25-0.50%) in 2016. We may also see some targeted small stimulus (negative bank deposit interest rate like in EU or some small QE like China) in US in this 2016 election year to keep the "Main Street" happy, keeping the "Wall Street" in an orderly & healthy condition. In any way, if Yellen go for a "one & off" rate hike on Dec-16, EURUSD will be eventually fall to 1.05 area with out any need for "Bazooka" from "Mario Whatever It Requires Draghi" and in that scenario a "Water Pistol" is sufficient for Draghi to keep everyone happy (as 1.08-1.05 zone may be an ideal rate for both EU and German economy). In case of Fed surprise (if does not opt for rate hike for any reason), Draghi has to unleash his sets of "Bazooka" (more QQE) to bring EUR towards his/ECB objective range (1.08-1.05) to stimulate the EU economy. *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NWRAq-U5hTc/Vmmlo2YobDI/FPI/PMqsNtM0Y6c/s1600/EURUSD-10-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dt8bTu4T3Jc/Vmmls39vC-I/FPQ/uEemceoa2Ms/s1600/EURUSD-FIBB-10-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1RaJ06GvSs4/VmmlvjacH5I/FPY/A1pjmiqQ5P0/s1600/EURUSD-WK-10-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0_UNga3MU9s/VmmlzmboDtI/FPg/wo6_EI1f0f8/s1600/EURUSD-PATTERN-10-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SyaWlCbctYc/Vmml2R4thJI/AAAAFPo/-f4efIHv_uE/s1600/EURUSD-TL-LT-10-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t7GN-zH_g7Y/Vmml48r2bkI/FPw/CS4ZzLArpvA/s1600/EURUSD-TL-LT-10-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) --
[www.niftyviews.com:23664] Fwd: Gold : Ahead Of Fed, What's The Chart Is Saying ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Gold : Ahead Of Fed, What's The Chart Is Saying ? Date: Wed, 16 Dec 2015 07:20:49 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com * For Gold 1040 is a big support zone for now and only sustaining below that expect 1025-1005 area & it has to stay above 1075 for 1100-1191 zone* *Trading Levels: Gold (CMP: 1065)* *Either Buy above 1075 or wait for dips around 1050-1040;* *TGT: 1090-1100*-1140 (1-3M)* *TGT: 1165-1191*-1215 (6-12M)* *TSL<1025* *Note: Consecutive closing below 1025 for any reason, Gold can fall up to 1015-1005* & 984 area in the worst bear case scenario.* As we are approaching the much awaited Fed day tomorrow, market has already discounted "one & off" token rate hike of 0.25% & another 0.25% by April'16 (Dovish hike). Now, its the Fed guidance about future FFR, which will dictate the market. Considering Fed's ultimate dual mandate of maximum employment (5%) and reasonable inflation (CPI 2%) target, Fed may not employ too much hawkish language in its communication as headline CPI is too far away at 0.5% (but core CPI is around 2%) and manufacturing data in US is also very tepid. In 2016, Fed may even take the weapon of "negative interest rate" as alternative QQE (like in ECB) to stimulate the "real street" in US, if there is no "surprise" on Dec-16 (Hawkish Skip/Hold; it was a close call, but it favoursthe 1-st hike into 2016, just like in Sep'15 !!) On the other hand, ECB, BOJ & even PBOC is ready for further QQE in different forms and ready to devalue its currency further to stimulate its economy & export; i,e they are taking divergent policy wrt to Fed. For the last one year, after QE tapering in US completed and Fed's continuous talks of rate hike (normalization) and verbal intervention, Gold has already corrected by around 20% from early Jan'15 top of around 1306 and over 45% from Sep'11 high of around 1923. As QQE in US, ECB & Japan failed to stimulate the expected inflation in the economy, Gold has also lost its traditional appeal as a "hedge against inflation". But, despite that, in the current era of competitive currency devaluation (currency war) by different economies , Gold has an eternal appeal as a "hard asset" against "fragile paper currency" specially in a "doom's day" like situation in global financial market (although chances are very remote). *Technically, Gold may be in the corrective B Wave of the weekly EW cycle and the extended target of the same is near 1040. If this zone of 1040 is respected, then the impulsive C wave target may be near 1098 in the short to mid term.* * * *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GFe21hoXdMY/VnBacZm89FI/FUM/vpePNd61aSQ/s1600/Gold-15-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cNJ2crAn02I/VnBadyjqmBI/FUU/nG9HowSs9nQ/s1600/Gold-FIBB-15-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E7XhnVo9hgE/VnBafwLcc1I/FUc/Wb74ROwLNQU/s1600/Gold-WK-15-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jr4regBlSQI/VnBaiBQkViI/FUk/x9uQs7HlTMs/s1600/Gold-TL-RSI-15-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hFAbTLNQCo8/VnBazu8fcSI/FUs/PYc_s0xl9KE/s1600/Gold-Pattern-15-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2tl52BCTK-M/VnBbAqJ0x7I/FU0/7MxwdrERwmc/s1600/Gold-EW-15-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23729] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Jan): 17200-17300 May Pose Big Challenge---
Forwarded Message Subject:Bank Nifty (Jan): 17200-17300 May Pose Big Challenge--- Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 08:34:05 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *BNF has to sustain over 17200-300 for 17610-18160;* *Otherwise, 16625-16165 may be on the card* *RBI directive for PSBS to come clean by 2017 and transmission of rate cuts * *(new base rate methodology) may put some pressure on BNF * *Trading Levels:* BNF-Jan: 17087 (LTP) SL=+/- 25 POINTS FROM SLR T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 17200 17296-317 17371-470 17560-610* 17665-850 18010-160 <17150 Weak < 17150 17044-970 16910-819 16695-625* 16505-460 16292-165 >17200 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR Strong > 17200 17317 17470 17610* 17850 18160 <17150 Weak < 17150 16970 16819 16625* 16460 16165 >17200 *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-t-9xz8ieALE/VonfSW3S33I/Fhc/FJal3npVe5I/s1600/BNF-01-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5HnmPdS3WOs/VonfUrYEPpI/Fhk/zoVDRaKf7Cw/s1600/BNF-FIBB-01-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XmY2JiZIvTs/VonfW331MWI/Fhs/fTjAxBeUmGE/s1600/BNF-MA-01-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YCiE9HkCL28/VonfY-hsrSI/Fh0/oe6kkODhYCU/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-01-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-E_9Z1W5Le8Y/VonfbU5DIbI/Fh8/VpiNGkxHBmo/s1600/BNF-TL-01-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9cuClAU4RVk/VonfdWzFluI/FiE/FuH466-2rcI/s1600/BNF-CROSS-01-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23740] Fwd: R-COM: More Than 100% Rally In Last 5 Months Amid Great Story Deleveraging---What's Next ?
Forwarded Message Subject: R-COM: More Than 100% Rally In Last 5 Months Amid Great Story Deleveraging---What's Next ? Date: Tue, 5 Jan 2016 09:10:26 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For R-COM, 91-93 zone may be very challenging* TRAI reminder of call drops issues is dragging all telecom companies including R-COM-- *CMP: 85* * * *Sell either below 82-80 or on rise around 91-93;* * * *TGT: 75-63 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>97* Note: Consecutive closing above 97 for any reason, R-COM may further rally up to 103-107 & 120-147 in the mid to long term. To be cont--- *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TO_9Pjon20k/Vos5Sub4jHI/Fic/mm7MqStQ4wA/s1600/R-COM-04-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XoFlTc2KwWs/Vos5T3VKJeI/Fik/KrkIy_jna5k/s1600/R-COM-FIBB-04-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B0RtS4iPcV0/Vos5Wk72FBI/Fis/eGP0ZaQvjoE/s1600/R-COM-PATTERN-04-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dPu0eJBOPOk/Vos5aV_tc2I/Fi0/9EafvcYamMM/s1600/R-COM-WK-04-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YKi09UTnnBA/Vos5ceMaf0I/Fi8/RkQClnKjVfo/s1600/R-COM-TL-04-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZvdVENfzp4M/Vos5fD0KDvI/FjE/2o3AKKRGsN4/s1600/R-COM-TL-RSI-04-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23746] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Jan): 17200-17300 May Pose Big Challenge---
If close abv 16850, then some hope, are you long in BNF ? >From My Lava On Jan 5, 2016 1:17 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > Recoverd posible 17000 this week ? > > On 1/4/16, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Some recovery may be there, if 16590-500 holds, but tomorrow, may be gap > > down opening possibility more > > > > From My Lava > > On Jan 4, 2016 10:44 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > >> Bnfty ltp 16625 posible recoverd tomorrow ? > >> > >> On 1/4/16, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > Forwarded Message ---- > >> > Subject: Bank Nifty (Jan): 17200-17300 May Pose Big Challenge--- > >> > Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 08:34:05 +0530 > >> > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> > >> > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > *BNF has to sustain over 17200-300 for 17610-18160;* > >> > *Otherwise, 16625-16165 may be on the card* > >> > > >> > *RBI directive for PSBS to come clean by 2017 and transmission of rate > >> > cuts * > >> > *(new base rate methodology) may put some pressure on BNF * > >> > > >> > > >> > *Trading Levels:* > >> > > >> > BNF-Jan: 17087 (LTP) > >> > > >> > SL=+/-25 POINTS FROM SLR > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > >> > Strong > 17200 17296-317 17371-470 > >> 17560-610* 17665-850 > >> > 18010-160 <17150 > >> > > >> > Weak <17150 17044-970 16910-819 > >> 16695-625* 16505-460 16292-165 > >> > >17200 > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > >> > Strong > 17200 17317 17470 17610* 17850 18160 > >> <17150 > >> > > >> > Weak <17150 16970 16819 16625* 16460 16165 > >> >17200 > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > *Analytical Charts:* > >> > > >> > > >> > < > >> > http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-t-9xz8ieALE/VonfSW3S33I/Fhc/FJal3npVe5I/s1600/BNF-01-01-2016.png > >> > > >> > > >> > < > >> > http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5HnmPdS3WOs/VonfUrYEPpI/Fhk/zoVDRaKf7Cw/s1600/BNF-FIBB-01-01-2016.png > >> > > >> > > >> > < > >> > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XmY2JiZIvTs/VonfW331MWI/Fhs/fTjAxBeUmGE/s1600/BNF-MA-01-01-2016.png > >> > > >> > > >> > < > >> > http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YCiE9HkCL28/VonfY-hsrSI/Fh0/oe6kkODhYCU/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-01-01-2016.png > >> > > >> > > >> > < > >> > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-E_9Z1W5Le8Y/VonfbU5DIbI/Fh8/VpiNGkxHBmo/s1600/BNF-TL-01-01-2016.png > >> > > >> > > >> > < > >> > http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9cuClAU4RVk/VonfdWzFluI/FiE/FuH466-2rcI/s1600/BNF-CROSS-01-01-2016.png > >> > > >> > > >> > -- > >> > Thanks & Regards, > >> > > >> > Asis Ghosh > >> > (asisghosh.blogspot.com) > >> > NCFM-TA Certified > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > -- > >> > Kindly email stock reports at > >> > > >> > STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com > >> > > >> > For sharing knowledge > >> > > >> > -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. > >> > > >> > http://www.niftyviews.com/ > >> > > >> > > >> > Disclaimer :- > >> > "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on > >> > their individual experience and perceptions and to share information > >> > with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members > >> > in investment decisions as equity investment
[www.niftyviews.com:23750] Fwd: Biocon: A Great Rally In Late 2015--But 545-555 Zone May Be Very Tough---
Forwarded Message Subject: Biocon: A Great Rally In Late 2015--But 545-555 Zone May Be Very Tough--- Date: Wed, 6 Jan 2016 08:56:29 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For Biocon, 580-600 is possible only sustaining above 555-560;* *Otherwise, 508-475 may be on the card* * * *As par analysts, further key triggers may happen only in FY:18-19* *CMP: 534* *Sell either below 535 or on rise around 545-555* *TGT:508-495-475*-452-430* (1-3M)* * * *TSL> 560* Note: Consecutive closing above 560 for any reason, Biocon may further rally up to 580-600 & 695 in the mid to long term. Biocon has a great story in late 2015 and consequently it rallied almost 40% since late Aug'15. But some analysts are now concerned over its muted earnings for Insulin capacity constraint and effect of Biosimilars in the near term, despite likely higher contribution from Syngene. To Be Cont *Analytical Charts:* <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P_37HjlpRGI/VoyGp1UAtoI/Fjc/DMvrWGL_rIU/s1600/Biocon-05-01-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ibd1HNKYIRs/VoyGrrYl2MI/Fjk/MGYCeHI3xQk/s1600/Biocon-FIBB-05-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3_cEfQK6duk/VoyGuBHMUoI/Fjs/xx-dm8FPg6k/s1600/Biocon-WK-05-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kpDTXycBtRA/VoyGxX7HdaI/Fj0/C1gddaaWUEE/s1600/Biocon-Pattern-05-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OKMj6PIvdK4/VoyGzon0ywI/Fj8/yUfJdtDWWSQ/s1600/Biocon-TL-05-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k-G7PyKnX08/VoyG3cyEcDI/FkE/Un9F8S7UiIg/s1600/Biocon-Pattern-MT-05-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23755] Fwd: Asian Paints: More Colour Only Abv 915-930----
Forwarded Message Subject:Asian Paints: More Colour Only Abv 915-930 Date: Thu, 7 Jan 2016 08:09:53 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For AP, expect 1005-1075 only sustaining above 930;* *Otherwise 837-778 may be on the card, if sustained below 880-870* *CMP: 886* * * *Sell either below 880-867 or on rise around 905-915-930;* * * *TGT: 837*-805-778 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>940/950* Note: Consecutive closing above 940/950 for any reason, AP may further rally up to 975-1005 & 1030-1075 in the mid to long term. To Be cont--- * Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X74vF5kIpQk/Vo3Nf6m_2pI/FkY/lJt-hmGwFos/s1600/AP-06-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WS3Wy-dpOQk/Vo3NhoYQKhI/Fkg/5O1Vk6lNbwU/s1600/AP-FIBB-06-01-2016.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lVF8DSEb98A/Vo3NjTeTD5I/Fko/3JGNTc9gC-I/s1600/AP-WK-06-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sYD_QSD7ZDs/Vo3Nnmy5CDI/Fkw/QKHakeXxuF4/s1600/AP-PATTERN-06-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AUxAME_y90c/Vo3NqPq1xmI/Fk4/_7Uz0UVXQrI/s1600/AP-TL-06-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-83KeFHabosc/Vo3NtLBGo7I/FlA/NwPHiNqy7tk/s1600/AP-PATTERN-MT-06-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23756] Fwd: ICICI Bank: 243-237 May Be Strong Demand Zone---
Forwarded Message Subject:ICICI Bank: 243-237 May Be Strong Demand Zone--- Date: Thu, 7 Jan 2016 09:08:04 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *CMP: 250* * * *Buy on dips around: 243-237;* * * *TGT: 265-285-292 (1-3M)* * * *TSL<235* Note: Consecutive closing below 235 for any reason, ICICI may further dip towards 215*-200 & 188 in the short to mid term. To Be cont--- *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-atyZJoLM1SE/Vo3cZ1D9bJI/FlQ/sHMVrrfkDDc/s1600/ICICI-06-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sTL4ntlSfg0/Vo3ccPXi5aI/FlY/5u80VmBl5zs/s1600/ICICI-FIBB-06-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-51FdZJwhYM8/Vo3cen8wS5I/Flg/HjT1FJf2cm0/s1600/ICICI-WK-06-01-2016.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PHYj7ESbtbw/Vo3chCvlVXI/Flo/gUua5sJDkcg/s1600/ICICI-TL-06-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-chU-klsTm5U/Vo3cjVmZ9NI/Flw/L0zF126qJy0/s1600/ICICI-PATTERN-06-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q8bnJTJDkHM/Vo3coT2X5oI/Fl4/PGLEnG6_Fj8/s1600/ICICI-PATTERN-LT-06-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23764] Fwd: Market Mantra: Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut (Jan) Update
Forwarded Message Subject:Market Mantra: Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut (Jan) Update Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2016 08:39:56 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For NF, 7560-7540 & for BNF, 16050-15780 may offer * *good support for the time being---* SGX NF: 7560 (CMP) NSE NF: 7574 (LTP) As par early morning indication NSE NF may open around 7560-7600 after China said that it will scrap the present mechanism of "circuit breaker" and there will be no "circuit breaker" from today. But there was another market buzz that PBOC is under great pressure from Chinese Govt to devalue Yuan by another 5% as quickly as possible (before Feb'16, China "Golden Week") to shore up its exports. As par some analysts, Yuan may reach 6.95-7.50 by 2016-17 and that's may be another headwinds for the global as well as Indian markets. Today's NFP data in US will be very important and anything above 200k may strengthen the USD, prompting the PBOC for more action. Although, as par Fed official dot-plots, there may be four hikes in 2016, FFR is indicating three hikes and the first by June'2016 instead of earlier March'2016 because of weak ISM data and ongoing China turmoil. Now-a-days, as the market is under control of Central Bankers since 2008 global crisis, anything can happen ranging from dovish tone of Fed (i.e rate will be flat for longer !!) more ECB & BOJ QQE and even imminent PBOC cut (interest & RRR) over the next few days/weekend. But now, its a different ball game as Chinese stimulus may be interpreted as a panic move instead of good news. As China is not so opaque, no one has any real idea about what's happening there and why PBOC is panicking so much !!. On the other hand, if PBOC does not announce any rate cut and instead indicate a massive Yuan devaluation (5-15% by 2016-17), then it may be huge negative for the global market. Bottom line, China again showed that, when it sneezes, the whole world gets not only cold, but something bigger than that !!. Apart from Fed uncertainty about future path of rate hikes, China, Oil, Brexit are some of the serious headwinds for global market in 2016. Back to our domestic front, although Govt is again wooing Cong for GST passage, it appears that the later is in no "mood" to oblige for that immediately. As par Cong, they did not get any written communications from the Govt regarding their 3-points objection over GST. Its also very paradoxical that just few days ago, our FM called for sure shot passage of GST without Cong support by March budget session as Cong's strength will diminish in RS. But despite all permutations & combinations, its not possible for BJP to gain required RS majority even by 2017-19. So, Govt has to fast track its political management and back door talks with the Cong and other important political opposition parties, But, given the 2016-17 big state election schedules (WB/UP), it may not be so easy. *Technically, for NF, 7560-7540-7520 is a big support zone and consecutive closing below that for any reason, NF may further dips towards 7450-7330*-7240 & 7135-7092-7000 area in the short to mid term (bear case scenario)* *On the other hand, sustaining over 7560-7620, NF may rally towards 7680-7727-7770 & 7811-7853-7890 in the near term (bullish case scenario)* *Similarly for BNF, 16050-15985 is important support zone and sustain below that 15915-15780*-15552 & 15390-15325-15175 may be the lower targets.* *On the upside, BNF need to trade above 16125 for an immediate target of 16255-16475-16550 & 16625-16670-16825 in the near term.* *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sX2LuIT9d2k/Vo8k8wRrWdI/FmU/pVDc21vObHk/s1600/SGX-NF-08-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t5T_zZzx-fE/Vo8lBf5V_AI/Fmc/ouDSRnxCQLE/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-RSI-08-01-2016.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hTQlfRov3Rc/Vo8lD3pCjcI/Fmk/oKKTowMip5g/s1600/BNF-FIBB-07-01-2016.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NjIXjcwhmKk/Vo8lGr0w-II/Fms/TWLA-rwzARI/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-07-01-2016.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) NCFM-TA Certified -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publ
[www.niftyviews.com:23720] Fwd: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Jan) ---Wishing All Of You A Happy & Prosperous New Year-2016
Forwarded Message Subject: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Jan) ---Wishing All Of You A Happy & Prosperous New Year-2016 Date: Fri, 1 Jan 2016 09:52:55 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com SGX NF: 7948(CMP) NSE NF: 7952 (LTP) As par SGX, NSE NF may open around 7950. Today overall market is expected to be in a narrow range as almost all the global markets are closed amid New Year Holiday !! *Technically, NF need to sustain above 7965-7985 & 8015 for 8055-8190 in the near term; otherwise it may feel selling pressure next week (when market participation will return to normal) and sustain below 7930-7900 area, target may be 7860-7800 & 7775-7694 zone.* *Overall, technically, sustain above 8015-8055, NF target may be 8200-8550 & 9200-9850 in CY/FY-2017 (Bullish case). * * * *In the alternative scenario, inability to sustain above 8015, NF may fall again to 7540 area and consecutive closing below that it may further fall towards 7000-6300*-5900 zone in CY/FY-2017 (Bear Case).* *In NF, we have death cross between 55/100 EMA for the last year and we need a golden cross for 2016 to have a bullish year.* *Analytical Charts:* <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8WZDuXHj5vM/VoX3QLM38qI/FfY/jozLTx7L5KE/s1600/SGX-NF-31-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ehs76yK2gOw/VoX3SAtedCI/Ffg/PMWTMvDHYgc/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-31-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8jrpQAER0cY/VoX3UJEuETI/Ffo/9rWCyVZU-Mw/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-31-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MBiGzeouKAQ/VoX3YtMBRmI/Ffw/Xmdsddg_ORc/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-LT-31-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-elIbqJ0WEh8/VoX3bcLFUwI/Ff4/5phGGbZ19Sc/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-31-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-huvoug_Vls4/VoX3d5EQFDI/FgA/wCl8_rC2djg/s1600/SGX-NF-CROSS-31-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: [www.niftyviews.com:23739] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Jan): 17200-17300 May Pose Big Challenge---
Some recovery may be there, if 16590-500 holds, but tomorrow, may be gap down opening possibility more >From My Lava On Jan 4, 2016 10:44 PM, "dipak panchal" <dipak.197...@gmail.com> wrote: > Bnfty ltp 16625 posible recoverd tomorrow ? > > On 1/4/16, Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > Forwarded Message > > Subject: Bank Nifty (Jan): 17200-17300 May Pose Big Challenge--- > > Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 08:34:05 +0530 > > From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> > > Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com > > > > > > > > *BNF has to sustain over 17200-300 for 17610-18160;* > > *Otherwise, 16625-16165 may be on the card* > > > > *RBI directive for PSBS to come clean by 2017 and transmission of rate > > cuts * > > *(new base rate methodology) may put some pressure on BNF * > > > > > > *Trading Levels:* > > > > BNF-Jan: 17087 (LTP) > > > > SL=+/-25 POINTS FROM SLR > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > > Strong > 17200 17296-317 17371-470 > 17560-610* 17665-850 > > 18010-160 <17150 > > > > Weak <17150 17044-970 16910-819 > 16695-625* 16505-460 16292-165 > > >17200 > > > > > > > > > > T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR > > Strong > 17200 17317 17470 17610* 17850 18160 > <17150 > > > > Weak <17150 16970 16819 16625* 16460 16165 > >17200 > > > > > > > > *Analytical Charts:* > > > > > > < > http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-t-9xz8ieALE/VonfSW3S33I/Fhc/FJal3npVe5I/s1600/BNF-01-01-2016.png > > > > > > < > http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5HnmPdS3WOs/VonfUrYEPpI/Fhk/zoVDRaKf7Cw/s1600/BNF-FIBB-01-01-2016.png > > > > > > < > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XmY2JiZIvTs/VonfW331MWI/Fhs/fTjAxBeUmGE/s1600/BNF-MA-01-01-2016.png > > > > > > < > http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YCiE9HkCL28/VonfY-hsrSI/Fh0/oe6kkODhYCU/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-01-01-2016.png > > > > > > < > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-E_9Z1W5Le8Y/VonfbU5DIbI/Fh8/VpiNGkxHBmo/s1600/BNF-TL-01-01-2016.png > > > > > > < > http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9cuClAU4RVk/VonfdWzFluI/FiE/FuH466-2rcI/s1600/BNF-CROSS-01-01-2016.png > > > > > > -- > > Thanks & Regards, > > > > Asis Ghosh > > (asisghosh.blogspot.com) > > NCFM-TA Certified > > > > > > > > -- > > Kindly email stock reports at > > > > STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com > > > > For sharing knowledge > > > > -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. > > > > http://www.niftyviews.com/ > > > > > > Disclaimer :- > > "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on > > their individual experience and perceptions and to share information > > with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members > > in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The > > administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the > authors > > to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the > > same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research > > report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' > > recommendation; or iv. give price target; > > --- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > > "Niftyviews.com" group. > > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > > email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > > > -- > Kindly email stock reports at > > STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com > > For sharing knowledge > > -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. > > http://www.niftyviews.com/ > > > Disclaimer :- > "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on > their individual experience and perceptions and to share information > with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members > in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The > administrator of www.Ni
[www.niftyviews.com:23718] Fwd: Reliance Industries: Too Much Hype About R-Jio ?
Forwarded Message Subject:Reliance Industries: Too Much Hype About R-Jio ? Date: Thu, 31 Dec 2015 09:41:59 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *For RIL, 1020-1040 may be a strong supply zone for the time being--* *Pan India commercial success will be tough for RJ, * *as its a new ecosystem & switch over may not be smooth in the near term* *CMP: 1004* * * *Either sell below 1005-992 or on rise around 1020-1040;* * * *TGT: 970-940*-910 (1-3M)* * * *TSL>1055* Note: Consecutive closing above 1055 for any reason, RIL may further rally up to 1075*-1100 & 1145-1200 in the mid to long term. RIL rallied almost 25% from its late Aug'15 low of around 817 on the back of its excellent results and potential of its telecom operations (R-Jio). RIL is very ambitious and optimistic about its RJ operations and success. RJ is basically looking to revolutionize the "Digital India" concept and customer usage pattern. It aims to bring India's 1.2 bln people under "Digital Umbrella". For this, RIL so far invested around $15 bln in the RJ, but some analysts are wary of the company's ability to generate positive returns in the next few years amid very low ARPU in India. Also there is no clarity on the business model and subscriber addition strategies for RJ till now. All will depend upon fast transition of customers to this new LTE ecosystem and 4G handsets, product pricing, user experiences etc. For the next few years, RJ may cause negative SOTP valuation for RIL by around 300/- par share as par some calculations. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Q3FY16 result of RIL to have glimpse of combination of RJ effect and possible lower GRM as spread between Crude & Brent Crude is narrowed considerably in Q3. *Analytical Charts:* <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-0m7lt0uXY-o/VoSii0ftMuI/Fec/vtHZ-RHEOlc/s1600/RIL-30-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ss2x683ADWY/VoSil9p1SYI/Fek/89jS2aQnTnY/s1600/RIL-FIBB-30-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-byyJjqkNpTk/VoSin0UfVGI/Fes/ET7d2amajxs/s1600/RIL-WK-30-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zyn7pIbfaKE/VoSiqUaNKWI/Fe0/MpEwZ0srNyQ/s1600/RIL-TL-30-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ig2IQf5Z_0o/VoSisJzSrsI/Fe8/GbhfRSfvs_o/s1600/RIL-TL-MT-30-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zRhOuM3kATo/VoSivvACy6I/AAAAFfE/R_IZnn_z26s/s1600/RIL-PATTERN-30-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[www.niftyviews.com:23683] Fwd: Sun Pharma: What's TA Is Saying Amid Halol Plant Warning Letter Confusion ?
Forwarded Message Subject: Sun Pharma: What's TA Is Saying Amid Halol Plant Warning Letter Confusion ? Date: Mon, 21 Dec 2015 09:13:47 +0530 From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com> Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com *Sun Pharma has to sustain over 810-830 for any further upside; * *Otherwise, it may again fall towards 720-700 zone.* * * *Although the US FDA warning letter possibility regarding Halol Plant * *was widely anticipated, it may not be fully discounted by the market yet.* *CMP: 790* * * *Sell on rise around: 810-830* * * *TGT: 755-721-702-690*-675-655 (1-3M)* * * *TSL> 850* *Note: Consecutive closing above 850 for any reason, Sun Pharma may rally up to 875-895-916-966 in the near term in alternative bullish case scenario.* For Sun Pharma, it seems that "ghost" of Halol Plant (Ranbaxy) is still there. On last Friday, after market hours, the company disclosed that they had received the warning letter from US FDA on 18/12/2015. Although this warning letter was widely expected after DRL fiasco, the same may not be fully discounted by the market yet. Although the company is confident to resolve the issue, in the worst case scenario, an import alert may also be issued by US FDA in future for this Halol Plant, but the possibility of the same is lower, considering the integrity & professionalism of Sun Pharma management. The company needs to disclose fully the contents of this warning letter publicly, but that may not be possible at this moment, unless US FDA disclosed that officially. The company is focusing on US FDA compliance for this Halol Plant, rather than transferring its manufacturing facillity to other compliant plants and is also taking necessary corrective measures for its other plants.. After steep fall in Nov on the back of this Halol Plant "legacy issues", (thanks to Ranbaxy), the scrip recovered to some extent from the bottom for various reasons and product approval of Gleevac (a block buster anti cancer drug) from US FDA may be one of them. Sun Pharma managed to shift this product to its other plant from the Halol. But, this may not be possible for every other product. *Technically, the scrip may be in the C-Wave (A-B-C) in the daily EW cycle and in that scenario, 1-st corrective wave in the fresh EW cycle (1-5 & A-C) may bring it again around 720 level in the days ahead. It may consolidate near 720-690-655 zone for some months until this US FDA issue is fully resolved and further clarity emerges. * But having said that, worst may not be over yet for the scrip, as the market may further discount it for any possible import alert. Thus buy in dips for Sun Pharma around 690-675 level will be better, considering the favourable risk reward ratio. * * *Analytical Charts:* <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A6or00Ad_6w/VndyMkerhSI/FXs/kckvHkajwDs/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-18-12-2015.png> <http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cXHhDbFJBPM/VndyP-M2QVI/FX0/ramweHWfY1I/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-FIBB-18-12-2015.png> <http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HHrtzLNgwU8/VndyR4GXzTI/FX8/fOipZ8kOlTg/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-WK-18-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SS94JpwedUc/VndyUEKR95I/FYE/X2Bk9X3monk/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-TL-RSI-18-12-2015.png> <http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-A_ZsA-vnEpI/VndyWYvcIWI/FYM/3OL2_rRadGI/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-Pattern-18-12-2015.png> <http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--5w1okQTt_I/VndyY-C1NSI/FYU/7_jrPbwP538/s1600/Sun%2BPharma-EW-18-12-2015.png> -- Thanks & Regards, Asis Ghosh (asisghosh.blogspot.com) -- Kindly email stock reports at STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com For sharing knowledge -- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE. http://www.niftyviews.com/ Disclaimer :- "The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on their individual experience and perceptions and to share information with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target; --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
