Re: [amibroker] Re: AIRAP - fitness function

2010-09-08 Thread Howard B
Hi Scott -- If by edge you mean expectancy, then it is well understood as being very important and often discussed in this forum. Or do you have a different, and quantifiable, definition of edge? Thanks, Howard On Wed, Sep 8, 2010 at 9:48 AM, sdwcyberdude scwalker1...@gmail.com wrote: Good

Re: [amibroker] double sort

2010-09-06 Thread Howard B
Hi tstudent -- Your question does not say how you will be using the result. If it will be assigned to ProfitScore, try this: rrr = rsi; // however you do this ret = weeklyreturn; // however you do this PositionScore = 1000*rrr + ret; // adjusted as necessary so the numbers come out with the

Re: [amibroker] Re: Req afl code for SAR use in best way for intraday trading

2010-09-05 Thread Howard B
Hi Ford -- Backtesting is important. In-sample backtesting results have no relation to future performance. Out-of-sample testing is the only way to get an estimate of future performance. Look for the 60% in out-of-sample runs. Thanks for listening, Howard On Sun, Sep 5, 2010 at 7:33 AM,

Re: [amibroker] State of Advanced Amibroker (again)

2010-09-04 Thread Howard B
Hi Frank -- Yes, it is possible. I completed a large project that was taking a lot of my time and competing with work on Advanced AmiBroker. I'll try to finish writing in time for the editors and printers to finish their portions, then get the book to me before Christmas. Thanks, Howard On

Re: [amibroker] Dynamic volatility based profittarget

2010-09-02 Thread Howard B
Hi Zozu -- If you want a profit target of, say, 2.5 percent, the ApplyStop statement wants a positive 2.5 for the third argument. (See the help files or reference manual.) Plot the array ProfitTarget to see what the values being computed by the ROC statement are. Multiply that array by

Re: [amibroker] Looking for a suitable Intraday data supplier

2010-08-26 Thread Howard B
Hi Bing -- If the data need not be accurate, why bother collecting it -- just set up a random number generator to make it up. (Grin) Even though you need only snapshot data, I recommend that you use data supplied by a data vendor (as compared with a broker). I use DTNIQ and like it. eSignal

Re: [amibroker] AFL Query

2010-08-23 Thread Howard B
Hi Meg -- Are there bars where the price changes 1% in one minute? Try lower the size of the change required to trigger the signal. Thanks, Howard On Sun, Aug 22, 2010 at 9:22 AM, Meg Nath meg.s...@gmail.com wrote: Hi All, I was trying to generate an AFL which indicated buy signals

Re: [amibroker] what is the difference between these two code lines

2010-08-21 Thread Howard B
Hi Ford -- Mubashar is correct. To expand a little on what he wrote -- The expression C EMA(C,13) defines a condition known as a level. The level is 1 (or, equivalently, True) for every bar where the Close of that bar is greater than the 13 period exponential moving average computed using the

Re: [amibroker] Re: customized walk forward backtesting possible?

2010-08-20 Thread Howard B
--- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Ade -- You might add logic code to your afl that identifies the category of market condition, then sets the parameters the way you want them for that condition, and then continues

Re: [amibroker] Re: customized walk forward backtesting possible?

2010-08-20 Thread Howard B
! Ade --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Ade -- I may be misunderstanding, but I don't see that CBT will be involved. I'm thinking something like this may work -- all in pseudo-afl code. Or do you have something else

Re: [amibroker] customized walk forward backtesting possible?

2010-08-19 Thread Howard B
Hi Ade -- You might add logic code to your afl that identifies the category of market condition, then sets the parameters the way you want them for that condition, and then continues on with the optimization. Perhaps using the Switch statement. Thanks, Howard On Thu, Aug 19, 2010 at 9:20 AM,

Re: [amibroker] Walkforward vs. Backtest special case question

2010-08-16 Thread Howard B
Hi Ray -- I would interpret your statement has no parameters to optimize to mean that all of the choices of logic and parameters have been hard-coded into the algorithm. To optimize means, to me, to generate a large number of alternatives, then choose the best based on a metric that describes my

Re: [amibroker] Req Afl code for FFT and hints for better use

2010-08-16 Thread Howard B
Hi Ford -- The length of the FFT lookback is so large that it does not have much value when used with financial time series. There are some other algorithms that attempt to compute the periods of dominant cycles. Search for John Ehlers in the AmiBroker forum postings and library (or read his

Re: [amibroker] InSync

2010-08-12 Thread Howard B
Hi Phil -- InSync is / was the name of a commercial program that computed the values of 10 or so traditional technical indicators and let them vote. I reviewed that program for one of the technical publications fifteen or more years ago. My conclusion was that the indicators they used were so

Re: [amibroker] The Speed of Optmization

2010-08-05 Thread Howard B
Hi Kusnadi -- For an alternative method to insure that the second variable is always greater than the first, change this code: /// firstvar = Optimize(Firstvar,1,1,20,1); Secondvar = Optimize(Secondvar,1,1,firstvar,1); Buy = Sell = True;

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-08-01 Thread Howard B
scaling or stops. And when I do, it is not because of any analysis. But only because it makes me feel safer. -- Keith On 7/30/2010 10:37, Howard B wrote: Greetings -- Sohamdas wrote: Dr Bandy, what you said is true, about the second alternative. The risk conditions are violated

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-30 Thread Howard B
@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Howard B Sent: Montag, 26. Juli 2010 16:33 To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis Hi Sohamdas -- In my opinion

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-30 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- h3po wrote: I can see one problem with modelling equity curve via Bootstrapmethod described in the thread; the draws will be *independent** *(not correlated). This will give less severe drawdowns in a simulation if the real situation is that consequtive wins/losses are autocorrelated

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-30 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- Sohamdas wrote: Dr Bandy, what you said is true, about the second alternative. The risk conditions are violated, with further scale-ins,when we double up etc. But consider, if with each scale-in, we also move the stop loss point.In that scenario, the situation can morph into one,

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-30 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- h3po wrote: Actully this gives idea for another interesting question: If one is able to model *stockprices* by means of a simple model, could this (monte carlo) simulated dataseries be valuable as additional data and be used as more OOS data or will it not give any new information in

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-29 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- Mike's comment is correct -- As for the value of Monte Carlo (MC) vs. Walk Forward Analysis (WFA). My view is that the two are not mutually exclusive, but rather are complimentary. Your out of sample (OOS) results from WFA are exactly the right kind of inputs for MC analysis.

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-29 Thread Howard B
Greetings all -- Several people have mentioned Dr Van Tharp's book, The Definitive Guide to Position Sizing. I like Dr Tharp's work, I have corresponded with him about position sizing, and he was kind enough to mention me in his book. By all means, buy his book and study it -- there is a lot to

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-27 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- MK wrote: I believe that is called Bootstrapping. In Monte Carlo you have to first guess the distribution of trades - more assumptions. --- This response is about assumptions about the distribution (not about bootstrapping). It is not necessary, or even advisable, or

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-27 Thread Howard B
drawdown, but I achieve the same by multiplying my non-monte-carlo-drawdown with say 1.5… Greetings from Germany, Matthias From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com [mailto: amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Howard

Re: [amibroker] Re: Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-27 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- MK wrote: What is the benefit of scaling in and out vs. treating them as separate systems? They basically are separate system. - I agree that entries made from secondary signals, or whatever you would call the signals that trigger the scale in, are

Re: [amibroker] Trading Systems, Position Sizing and Monte Carlo Analysis

2010-07-26 Thread Howard B
Hi Sohamdas -- In my opinion, this is definitely a topic that deserves discussion in the AmiBroker forum. What position sizing should be used during backtests? If you will be evaluating each trade for its characteristics -- entry efficiency, exit efficiency, and so forth, then each trade should

Re: [amibroker] Can I make buy signal based on date

2010-07-21 Thread Howard B
Hi Timur -- Buydate = DateNum()==1100716; Buy = Buydate; Thanks, Howard On Wed, Jul 21, 2010 at 4:08 AM, TimurLangit i4...@yahoo.com wrote: Help me please. How is afl code to create buy signal based on specific date? Like 'buy=1 if date==July 16,2010'? Thank you so much, Timur

Re: [amibroker] Position Size vs. Max. Sys % Drawdown

2010-07-21 Thread Howard B
Hi Ray -- The answer to your question is a couple of chapters in my next book, Advanced AmiBroker. While waiting for me to finish (no definite date for release), you might read: 1. any of Ralph Vince's books. All are worth reading. His most recent is The Leverage Space Trading Model. 2. Van

Re: [amibroker] calculation of the t-stat of expectancy for the OOS periods of WF Simulation

2010-07-17 Thread Howard B
Hi Ray -- The t-test is used to test whether two samples come from the same distribution. The example you may be referring to asks whether the expectancy of the out-of-sample results could have come from a random or unprofitable system. The null hypothesis (the one we want to say is very

Re: [amibroker] Re: Random Backtesting

2010-07-15 Thread Howard B
, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Mikey -- Positive values of PositionScore are used to rank issues to enter long positions. Negative values are used to rank issues to enter short positions. Try transforming the random numbers so that they run from -0.50 to +0.50. That is, try

Re: [amibroker] Random Backtesting

2010-07-14 Thread Howard B
Hi Mikey -- Positive values of PositionScore are used to rank issues to enter long positions. Negative values are used to rank issues to enter short positions. Try transforming the random numbers so that they run from -0.50 to +0.50. That is, try: PositionScore = random() - 0.50; MTRandom()

Re: [amibroker] Optimization issues

2010-07-11 Thread Howard B
Hi AJ -- Are the settings the same? Are the issues being tested the same? Are the individual values that give good results in the backtest included within the ranges of the optimization variables? Thanks, Howard On Sat, Jul 10, 2010 at 12:04 PM, AJ axjur...@gmail.com wrote: Good

Re: [amibroker] Re: Random Entries and Exits?

2010-07-07 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- This is the code being referred to from my book, Quantitative Trading Systems. Thanks, Howard //EnterAtRandom.afl // //Entry a position at the close of a random bar. // //A random entry for use as a benchmark. // //Expect this entry to mirror the buy and hold. //

Re: [amibroker] Re: Random Entries and Exits?

2010-07-07 Thread Howard B
, including C++ and Excel. Also, download the pdf file from the link Addendum and Errata from this page: http://www.quantitativetradingsystems.com/book.html which has an example of using mtrandom. Thanks, Howard On Wed, Jul 7, 2010 at 4:34 AM, Howard B howardba...@gmail.com wrote: Greetings

Re: [amibroker] How to reset the Backtester Results window?

2010-07-07 Thread Howard B
Hi Michael -- Right-click in the Results window. This brings up a context menu. Left-click Clear Results List. Or did I mis-understand the question? Thanks, Howard On Wed, Jul 7, 2010 at 1:27 PM, michaels_musings michaels_musi...@yahoo.com wrote: I did something to mess up the display of

Re: [amibroker] Intrady Time interval problem

2010-07-04 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- On the Tools menu Preferences Intraday tab You can control whether the time associated with a bar is the start of the bar or the end of the bar. Thanks, Howard On Thu, Jul 1, 2010 at 1:04 AM, edakad1 edak...@yahoo.com wrote: Hi, I am facing a problem with intraday charts.

Re: [amibroker] Re: Percentile Rank of P/S Ratio

2010-06-18 Thread Howard B
Hi Abbie -- I wrote a paper, Use of Fundamental Data in Active Investing, that discusses some the issues that arise when using fundamental data. You can download it for free from this site: http://www.blueowlpress.com/activities.html Thanks, Howard On Fri, Jun 18, 2010 at 1:44 AM, Paolo

Re: [amibroker] Re: How to set the amount in ApplyStop(stopTypeTrailing, stopModePoint,amount,1,1,1)

2010-06-18 Thread Howard B
Hi Jolly -- Something like this:? TrailingStopPercentage = 2.5; // percentage points ApplyStop(StopTypeTrailing,StopModePercent,TrailingStopPercentage,1); TrailingStopPercentage is a variable that you control completely -- you name it, you assign it a value, the value can be an expression

Re: [amibroker] read individual values

2010-06-16 Thread Howard B
of value in chart, that is in range of bars also. I don't know if is possible. Thank you for your response, Erich Rodrigues --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.comamibroker% 40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Erich -- Thanks

Re: [amibroker] Re: doubt with stops

2010-06-16 Thread Howard B
Hi Gonzaga -- Check the users guide for ApplyStop. Your afl can have more than one exit, and it is common for a trading system to include both exits described by logic (Sell = xxx;) and by ApplyStop -- perhaps more than one of each. If you have several ApplyStop statements (profit target,

Re: [amibroker] read individual values

2010-06-14 Thread Howard B
this function to do this? Basically, I need export indicator value when my backtest says to buy or to sell. TIA, Erich Rodrigues --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi RZ -- My book Quantitative Trading Systems discusses

Re: [amibroker] Self Adaptive Bollinger

2010-06-13 Thread Howard B
Hi G -- If it does not violate any copyright or non-disclosure, post the TradeStation code and someone will translate it and post the equivalent AmiBroker code. If that would be in violation, then this is not the appropriate forum. Thanks, Howard On Sun, Jun 13, 2010 at 11:36 AM,

Re: [amibroker] Divergence Indicator

2010-06-12 Thread Howard B
. Regards Vishvesh On Fri, Jun 11, 2010 at 10:12 PM, Howard B howardba...@gmail.com wrote: Hi Vishvesh -- If you can define divergence in an unambiguous way, it can be programmed. What is your definition? Thanks, Howard On Fri, Jun 11, 2010 at 10:11 AM, Vishvesh vishvesh.chau

Re: [amibroker] Limiting Drawdown in a Backtest

2010-06-12 Thread Howard B
-- *From:* Howard B howardba...@gmail.com *To:* amibroker@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Sat, 12 June, 2010 2:39:54 AM *Subject:* Re: [amibroker] Limiting Drawdown in a Backtest Hi RZ -- You can do this by creating a custom objective function. It could as simple as assigning the custom function

Re: [amibroker] Divergence Indicator

2010-06-11 Thread Howard B
Hi Vishvesh -- If you can define divergence in an unambiguous way, it can be programmed. What is your definition? Thanks, Howard On Fri, Jun 11, 2010 at 10:11 AM, Vishvesh vishvesh.chau...@gmail.comwrote: Hello Friends, I was wondering is there AFL available which highlights the price bar

Re: [amibroker] Simple Code Difficulty

2010-06-08 Thread Howard B
Here is the Buy part with plot statements to help visualize what is happening - //Buy20DayHigh.afl // //Buy when ema(c,5) ema(c,20) //and issue reached new 20 day high // //Howard Bandy //June 2010 // Cond1 = EMA( C, 5 ) EMA( C, 20 ); Cond2 =

Re: [amibroker] Request For An AFL To Scan Open=High or Open=Low In Any Time Frame

2010-06-08 Thread Howard B
See if this helps -- //OpensAtHigh.afl // //Identify that the opening price //on the first bar of the day //is the high of that bar. // //Howard Bandy //June 2010 // dn = Day(); FirstBar = dn != Ref( dn, -1 ); OpenAtHigh = FirstBar ( O ==

Re: [amibroker] Deleting database

2010-06-08 Thread Howard B
Hi K -- Each database is a subdirectory to C:\Program Files\AmiBroker. For example, the small database that installs when AmiBroker is first installed is named Data. It is in C:\Program Files\AmiBroker\Data. Use Windows Explorer and you can see the folders where each ticker is stored according

Re: [amibroker] Volatility bands

2010-06-06 Thread Howard B
Hi Mithal, and all -- Not to discourage your efforts, but no one will be able to develop, test, and validate a trading system, then trade it with confidence, without having skills in both programming and statistics. Please, take the time to learn AmiBroker's afl. Thanks, Howard On Sat, Jun 5,

Re: [amibroker] Loop for MA calculation

2010-06-03 Thread Howard B
As requested -- //CalculateMovingAverageLooping.afl // //Calculate a simple moving average using looping code // //Howard Bandy //June 2010 // //In Formula Editor, click Apply Indicator. //Note that all three moving averages are the same //Plot the price series

Re: [amibroker] State of Advanced Amibroker

2010-05-16 Thread Howard B
Hi Frank -- Thanks for your interest in Advanced AmiBroker. I am still working on writing and editing the book. Time to work on it is in competition with my own trading and several other of my projects. I am making progress on the book, but have no definite release date. I will post notices

Re: [amibroker] Re: SP GICS clasifications

2010-04-23 Thread Howard B
Hi Ara -- According to information from Norgate Premium Data, they will will have GICS data real soon now. Richard Dale, who often posts here, is their contact. Thanks, Howard On Fri, Apr 23, 2010 at 12:54 AM, Paolo pcavat...@gmail.com wrote:

Re: [amibroker] Re: Taking 2 Trades in 1 Bar

2010-04-17 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- You may need to use bars with finer resolution. Any assumptions of the order of any prices other than Open and Close are unreliable. Conservative trading system design assumes that prices happen in the order that is least favorable to the trader. For any single bar, you know four

Re: [amibroker] How to Change the Sort Order

2010-04-11 Thread Howard B
Hi Alan -- In order to sort them into the order you want them in, you will need to assign each a number that will be used as the sort key. I assume you can define the key and do that. Assign that key to a variable. Use the AddColumn to list the variable. Run the Exploration. Click on the header

Re: [amibroker] Question about PositinScore in backtesting

2010-04-06 Thread Howard B
Hi Tony -- There is a trading system methodology known as rotational trading where a watchlist is evaluated every bar and those issues that have the highest PositionScore are selected. To enable rotational trading, the afl needs this statement: EnableRotationalTrading(); When using rotational

Re: [amibroker] Re: Exponential Moving Average

2010-03-27 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- There may be two questions in this thread. Question 1 -- What is the relationship between the smoothing constant and the lag. Given a Simple Moving Average with a lookback of SMALength (say, 10 bars), what is the smoothing constant for an Exponential Moving Average that performs

Re: [amibroker] rotational trading buying time

2010-03-20 Thread Howard B
Hi Donald -- Does something like this work for you? TradingDay = 15; dn = Day(); newMonth = (dn=TradingDay) (Ref(dn,-1)TradingDay); Thanks, Howard On Sat, Mar 20, 2010 at 7:36 AM, donald_brown_48367 donald_brown_48...@yahoo.com wrote: I have a rotational system that rotates at the

Re: [amibroker] AmiBroker as an intraday trading platform

2010-03-09 Thread Howard B
Yes On Mon, Mar 8, 2010 at 3:38 AM, victorio91306 vabb...@socal.rr.com wrote: Is the AmiBroker software a viable platform to day trade The ESMINI.

Re: [amibroker] Amibroker Perspective

2010-03-08 Thread Howard B
Hi Jchi -- Herman is right. When profits look too good to be true, the first thing I check for is a future leak -- using data in the trading system code that is available to the backtester that would not be available to the trader. Depending on the code used, checking this might be as easy as

Re: [amibroker] Adding Colums to Backtest

2010-03-08 Thread Howard B
Hi Jchi -- I recommend that you do this in two steps. One -- write the trading system, including Buy and Sell statements. Use the Automatic Analysis Backtest button to run the backtest and get trading results. Two -- add AddColumn statements to the code. (See the reference materials for

Re: [amibroker] Few Newbie Questions

2010-03-08 Thread Howard B
Hi Jchi -- High quality, low cost end-of-day data is available from several vendors. Two I recommend (I subscribe to them both) are: Quotes Plus -- http://qp2.com/joomla/index.php Norgate Premium Data -- http://www.premiumdata.net/ Read the reference materials related to BuyPrice, SellPrice, and

Re: [amibroker] Re: Walk Forward IS/OOS Period Optimization?

2010-02-23 Thread Howard B
Hi SpaceBass -- I would like to read your paper. Let us know how to get a copy. Thanks, Howard On Mon, Feb 22, 2010 at 9:39 PM, spacebass5000 spacebass5...@yahoo.comwrote: Awesome, lots to ponder. Thanks a lot for the input everyone! I'm actually writing a paper that looks at various

Re: [amibroker] AddToComposite - using PremiumData

2010-02-23 Thread Howard B
Hi Pat -- I regularly use AddToComposite with data from Norgate Premium Data without any difficulty. I suspect the problem is with the way ATC is being used, not with the data. Post the entire code so we can look at it. (Or make up a small program that fails to work correctly to illustrate

Re: [amibroker] Scale in and exit signal on the same bar

2010-02-23 Thread Howard B
Hi Pedro -- For any single bar, you know the values of four data points -- Open, High, Low, and Close. You know the time of two data points -- Open and Close. There is no way to determine the sequence in which any prices other than Open and Close occur. You can, within one bar do any of these

Re: [amibroker] Re: Mutual funds are outperforming ETFs big time, but they sh...

2010-02-23 Thread Howard B
Hi Kevin -- There are several difference between ETNs and ETFs. ETNs make up less than 1% of the ETF/ETN products. A few of them have reasonable volume, but most do not. There can be tracking error (and arbitrage opportunity for major players) with ETNs. ETNs are not equities, or baskets of

Re: [amibroker] Walk Forward IS/OOS Period Optimization?

2010-02-20 Thread Howard B
Hi Joris, and all -- If the typical time a trade is held, and trading frequency is fairly constant, both of which I recommend, then constant time periods will have similar number of trades. Some of us carry on a lot of our lives using time to schedule -- how many dollars per year we earn, how

Re: [amibroker] Re: Pyramiding / ScaleIn Questions

2010-02-19 Thread Howard B
Greetings all -- An earlier post in this thread: I also read Connor's book and found many of his strategies worked, probably because they were simple. I did not find that scaling in, as is being discussed in this thread, worked better than just buying a full position. Anyone else come up with the

Re: [amibroker] Walk Forward IS/OOS Period Optimization?

2010-02-19 Thread Howard B
Hi SpaceBass -- The only way to determine the correct length for the in-sample period is by running experiments. The length needs to be long enough for the model to synchronize with the data and learn to recognize the signal. But not so long that the signal has changed significantly, making it

Re: [amibroker] Walk Forward IS/OOS Period Optimization?

2010-02-19 Thread Howard B
Hi Herman, and all -- The issue determining the length of the in-sample period is not the number of trades, but the number of data points it takes for the model (afl) and the data (OHLC) to become synchronized. Imagine a model that is looking for cyclic behavior in the data. If the cycle

Re: [amibroker] Re: Pyramiding / ScaleIn Questions

2010-02-19 Thread Howard B
Hi Richard, and all -- I categorize exits in several general ways. 1. The exit from the logic of the trading system. This is usually the best exit. Exits that can be good include: 2. Exit caused by a trailing stop that follows the price movement in the direction of the trade -- the stop

Re: [amibroker] Re: Can Amibroker handle small decimal numbers?

2010-02-17 Thread Howard B
%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Zozu -- How small are the numbers and how are you using them? Multiplying by 100 or 1000 is often useful when working with indicator values so that they scale reasonably when plotted. Multiplying by 100 or 1000 may be useful

Re: [amibroker] Re: Can Amibroker handle small decimal numbers?

2010-02-16 Thread Howard B
Hi Zozu -- How small are the numbers and how are you using them? Multiplying by 100 or 1000 is often useful when working with indicator values so that they scale reasonably when plotted. Multiplying by 100 or 1000 may be useful when combining a variable with a small value with a variable with a

Re: [amibroker] Re: statistivcs definition

2010-02-12 Thread Howard B
Industrial Strength Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Thanks, Howard On Tue, Feb 9, 2010 at 9:00 PM, reefbreak_sd reefbreak...@yahoo.com wrote: I am no expert in backtesting, you need to address those questions to Howard Bandy on this forum or buy his EXCELLENT book Quantitative

Re: [amibroker] Monte Carlo Analysis in AMIBROKER?

2010-01-25 Thread Howard B
Hi Joseph -- One straightforward way to study the effect of survivorship bias is to set up a watchlist for each period. Enter the tickers of those issues that are components of that index at the beginning of the period. On the AA Settings dialog box, select a watchlist and set the Range to the

Re: [amibroker] Re: Monte Carlo Analysis in AMIBROKER?

2010-01-25 Thread Howard B
and out by the close. So i hold no stocks overnight. So i am not exposed to trading halts or overnight gaps etc. (not sure if this makes a difference) Thanks again for your time Howard From: Howard B howardba

Re: [amibroker] Monte Carlo Analysis in AMIBROKER?

2010-01-24 Thread Howard B
Hi Joseph -- There are many uses of Monte Carlo in the fields of econometrics and financial analysis and modeling. But the three described below are the most applicable to trading systems development. Some are easy to implement in AmiBroker, others are more difficult. Some are useful, others are

Re: [amibroker] Monte Carlo Analysis in AMIBROKER?

2010-01-24 Thread Howard B
Hi Ton -- Yes, Equity Monaco is a NeoTicker product. It accepts a list of closed trades from a text file as input. You can get that by exporting results from the AA report, cleaning it up with a spreadsheet if necessary, and importing it into Equity Monaco. You definitely can use Equity Monaco

Re: [amibroker] Monte Carlo Analysis in AMIBROKER?

2010-01-24 Thread Howard B
Hi Markus -- I also own Tharp's books. He does use a proprietary package called Know Your System for his analysis. There are many ways to use Monte Carlo techniques. The different algorithms are more about generating random numbers and defining the distributions from which the random values

Re: [amibroker] Monte Carlo Analysis in AMIBROKER?

2010-01-24 Thread Howard B
this are a great place to be! Thanks again and all the best for your newest book project! Peace Markus - Original Message - *From:* Howard B howardba...@gmail.com *To:* amibroker@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Sunday, January 24, 2010 7:33 PM *Subject:* Re: [amibroker] Monte Carlo Analysis

Re: [amibroker] Re: Options Pricing and Probability.

2010-01-23 Thread Howard B
react to the underlying and time decay. rr --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Greetings all -- Historical data for options is both difficult to obtain and generally not useful. Only the most active options trade regularly

Re: [amibroker] Testing multiple exits

2010-01-22 Thread Howard B
Hi Richard -- Something like this? /// //MultipleExits.afl // //Buy the first trading day of the month Buy = Month() != Ref(Month(),-1); WhichExit = Optimize(WhichExit,1,1,4,1); switch(WhichExit) { case 1: //Sell the first

Re: [amibroker] why is optimization for a large number of stocks so much slower?

2010-01-21 Thread Howard B
Hi Steven -- The answer is in the combinatorics. If I ask for the best combination of, say, 5 stocks from among 20 choices, we are asking what is the best choice of 20, taken 5 at a time? The number of possibilities that must be evaluated is n! / (r! * (n-r)!) where n is 20, r is 5, and ! is

Re: [amibroker] How to specify a different buy price than C,O,H,L, AV in Backtester AFL code?

2010-01-21 Thread Howard B
Hi Nugget -- Try this: //BuyAtANewHigh.afl // //Buy if today's high is at least 1% higher than yesterday's high TargetPrice = 1.01 * Ref( H, -1 ); Buy = H TargetPrice; BuyPrice = TargetPrice; Sell = BarsSince( Buy ) = 2; /// Thanks, Howard On Thu, Jan 14,

Re: [amibroker] Re: Options Pricing and Probability.

2010-01-21 Thread Howard B
Greetings all -- Historical data for options is both difficult to obtain and generally not useful. Only the most active options trade regularly enough to give accurate and useful OHLCV data on their own. And options expire, which means that the active contract has a useful history of about one

Re: [amibroker] Optimizing

2010-01-07 Thread Howard B
Hi Markus -- All trades are trend following for the time they are held -- but the conditions that describe the entry are either mean-reverting or trend-following depending on whether the system buys weakness or buys strength, respectively. Under some conditions, mean reversion systems are

Re: [amibroker] Optimizing

2010-01-06 Thread Howard B
Hi Markus -- The characteristics of a desirable trading system are yours to decide. Whether you want to focus on trend following systems, on mean reversion systems, on pattern systems, statistical systems, or whatever else is completely up to you. I meant no criticism. My suggestion about

Re: [amibroker] Re: Against All Odds

2009-12-27 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- Beware of high sums resulting from signals coming from indicators that are positively correlated. For example, RSI, CCI, Stochastic will all trigger at about the same time / price. Thanks, Howard On Fri, Dec 25, 2009 at 6:35 PM, Neil Wrightson ne...@nwe.net.au wrote: Hi,

Re: [amibroker] Re: Back test questions

2009-12-21 Thread Howard B
equity in single trade Buy = RSISignal ; Sell = Close ; --- --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Peter -- To be sure we are all looking at the same situation, post the code you have a question about. A common

Re: [amibroker] Back test questions

2009-12-20 Thread Howard B
Hi Peter -- To be sure we are all looking at the same situation, post the code you have a question about. A common reason trades last longer than might be expected is that the Buy condition reoccurs during the trade. Thanks, Howard On Sat, Dec 19, 2009 at 1:31 PM, peter843

Re: [amibroker] Re: smart trail stop

2009-12-02 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- As a way of testing whether scaling-in works for your trading system, you might code up two separate trading systems. The first takes a position at your first signal. The second takes a position when you already have your first signal and then receive your scale-in signal.

Re: [amibroker] What's a good k ratio, and thoughts on when k ratio clashes with MDD and Sharpe?

2009-11-29 Thread Howard B
Hi PS -- One way to get a feeling for values for metrics and objective functions is run an optimization, giving you a range of results. If necessary, peek into the future so you are certain to get some really good results. Look through the list of results, pick some individual results with a

Re: [amibroker] Re: Tick data, how important is bids/asks?

2009-11-23 Thread Howard B
Greetings all -- In a conversation I had recently with a practitioner of high frequency trading, including flash trading, he pointed out that it is not unusual for bids and offers to be modified many times for every trade that is eventually executed. Many means somewhere between two or three

Re: [amibroker] HOW TO CREATE CSV FILE WITHIN AFL OF EXPLORATION

2009-11-18 Thread Howard B
Hi Bis -- The documentation explains how to write data to disk files from within AFL. You will need a sequence of: fopen -- one time to establish the file a loop that formats the data the way you want it, then calls fputs for each bar fclose -- one time to close the file and finalize the write.

Re: [amibroker] Walk Forward Test - How would you...

2009-11-13 Thread Howard B
Hi Dubi -- What is SPSO? Thanks, Howard On Wed, Nov 11, 2009 at 9:07 AM, dubi1974 gonzale...@chello.at wrote: Hi! Is it possible to optimize a system (for e.g. best net performance %) with SPSO but then use the highest Ulcer Performance Index or CAR/MDD and use then this parameters for

Re: [amibroker] Re: Walk Forward Test - How would you...

2009-11-13 Thread Howard B
misinterpret your question? Thanks, Howard On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 3:39 AM, Bisto bistoma...@yahoo.com wrote: I suppose: Standard Particle Swarm Optimization Bisto --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Dubi -- What is SPSO

Re: [amibroker] Re: Optimization targeting equity curve smoothness?

2009-10-21 Thread Howard B
Greetings Ramon, Graham, and all -- You are probably already aware, but many will not be. There is danger in multistep optimization when the second step is applied to the results of the first step, all of the out-of-sampleness has probably been used up. Be certain to reserve some additional

Re: [amibroker] Re: Money management AFL

2009-10-21 Thread Howard B
Greetings all -- Be certain that scaling in actually helps your trading system. It hurts most. You might be able to isolate the scaling in effect by running the system as two separate systems -- one with the original buy and the second with the scale in buy. Thanks, Howard On Wed, Oct 21,

Re: [amibroker] Re: Is the Walk forward study useful?

2009-10-18 Thread Howard B
of the equation will render the rest of the equation irrelevant once N gets too large. $0.02 Bing --- In amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardbandy@ wrote: Hi Zozu -- I must disagree with Van Tharp on this. If the runs

Re: [amibroker] Import thousands acsii files

2009-10-16 Thread Howard B
Greetings -- I do not offer a solution, rather a question. What is in those files, and how will they be used? Will they be used as components of trading systems that will someday be traded? If the data in the ASCII files is available from a vendor for which there is already an AmiBroker data

Re: [amibroker] Re: Is the Walk forward study useful?

2009-10-16 Thread Howard B
@yahoogroups.com amibroker%40yahoogroups.com, Howard B howardba...@... wrote: Hi Bing, and all -- I think we need a reality check. First -- computing the t-test, or any other metric using the results from in-sample runs has no value. Almost any trading system can have the parameters

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