Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
- Original Message - From: via EV winfield...@yahoo.com ev@lists.evdl.org To: Willie2 wmckem...@gmail.com, Electric Vehicle Discussion List ev@lists.evdl.org Sent: Sun, 31 Aug 2014 17:29:45 -0600 (MDT) Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost? Bob Bruning a is a great evangelist for 110v, L1 charging at work using existing 20 amp circuits. Way cheaper than L2 when parked 6-9 hours. He built a solar Prius Any URLs to learn more about this? regards hg ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
I wonder how many could have bypassed using a car altogether, and ridden a bike or taken a bus. Sent from my iPhone On Aug 29, 2014, at 9:14 PM, Dennis Miles dmiles33...@gmail.com wrote: 85% of driven trip miles were under 39 miles. Also, 99% of driven trip miles were less than 100 miles , leaving only 1% of trip miles being over 100 miles. Less than one percent of trips are over 100 miles. That suggests that three trips per year are over 100 miles. Not having the original source you have confused the data, possibly because of my presentation, of the original data. Sorry about that. Driven trip miles are per calendar day. There are 365 days per year, and one percent is 3.65 days with trips over 100 miles for 99 % of automobile drivers. Then One percent drive in excess of 100 miles each day , that is three million drivers who regularly drive in excess of 100 miles in their daily total miles driven. I am sorry to have confused the issue. I had an excellent graphic illustrating this data from the same US Government agency who performed the research study, but I lost it when my computer hard drive crashed last Spring. Perhaps it is still available on the internet but my service (Hughesnet) limits my usage toward the end of the month when my allotment is exceeded... Dennis Lee Miles evprofes...@evprofessor.com Founder:*EV Tech. Institute Inc.* *Phone #* *(863) 289-0690 (12 noon to 12 midnight Eastern US Time)* *Educating yourself, does not mean you were **stupid; it means, you are intelligent enough, **to know, that there is plenty left to learn!* * You Tube Video link: http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss * ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Ben Goren via EV wrote: Obviously, a car that's superior (and actually used) for 85% of driving should be considered the primary car -- even if such a car generally isn't an option as the only car for a single-car family. That's generally how I've been using my EVs for 30+ years. It's my primary car, with an ICE van or pickup truck as a backup vehicle for long trips, towing, and hauling. a great deal about what's so exciting right now. We're actually at a point where a BEV _can_ be an only car for at least a few people, and where it can be the first car -- using your reformulation of my sloppy usage -- for the majority. And, we're definitely at the point where an almost-always- electric PHEV can be the only, primary, or secondary car for just about anybody. Not that long ago, options such as we have today were wishful fantasy... To be fair to us pioneers, it's always been possible. It's just that most people ignored us, or weren't aware that it was possible. Of course, part of the problem was that we had to build our own EVs. That meant they were usually conversions, which looked or performed crudely. We also had to work with pitiful budgets. That was more likely to inspire ridicule than respect. As Gandhi said... -- First they ignore you Then they laugh at you Then they fight you Then you win -- Mahatma Gandhi -- Lee Hart's EV projects are at http://www.sunrise-ev.com/LeesEVs.htm ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Now the dust has settled somewhat, does anyone has the insider knowledge of why Tesla abandoned the 40kWh pack and why, more interestingly, it didn't come with a supercharger option? I still think it would have a market, particularly in Asia and Europe where shorter average journeys are the norm - but only with an SC option. MW On 28 Aug 2014, at 14:51, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: how much range is enough...is it better to... decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Amen. I like the new Nissan concept of a range of batteries to match the individual. I do not want to spend extra 10's of thousands of dollars for an extra 50 miles range that I only need 2% of the time. That makes that 2% travel very expensive. Back when TESLA offered three range batteries, the cost difference was something like an extra $50,000 to go from their smallest battery to the largest. That means if one generally uses the Tesla for local travel, then those once a month trips over 250 miles are costing an extra $50,000. For that money, one can rent a gas car EVERY weekend for 10 years including gas, and not have to lug around the extra 500 lbs of battery every day commuting. On the other hand, if one travels 200 miles often, then there is no question, the extra $50,000 gives you a great EV to make the trip. Bob, WB4APR ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
I can understand all the issues people have raised on this thread. The simple fact is that hardly any of the Renault range is selling. As a long term EVer, I would not be swayed by the battery lease idea unless it was very cheap - $10/month or so. I have sufficient faith in the battery tech of all the mainstream production EVs due to the empirical data we now have - bearing in mind some early LEAFs and i-Mievs have been going for 4 years now and have many 10's of thousands of miles on them. There have been extremely few horror stories about failing cells and indeed from Tesla we hear the exact opposite - cells degrading much less than anticipated. For my money, Renault had better start offering the ZEV range including packs out-right as an option very soon ... or I'll be selling my shares! MW On 28 Aug 2014, at 22:26, EVDL Administrator via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On 28 Aug 2014 at 13:47, Ed Blackmond via EV wrote: I see this as the way to make the econobox electric vehicles possible. The Nissan Leaf would sell for the same price as its essential twin the Versa and the battery pack would be leased. This is what Renault (Nissan's French partner) is doing with their Zöe, and I think with their other EVs too. Personally, I don't like some of the terms of their lease, and probably wouldn't buy a Zöe for that reason, but that's just me. From what I've read, part of the idea behind their lease - they'll sell you the car, but not the battery - is to keep the car's selling price low. I think the battery lease costs about what you'd spend on on fuel for a comparable car for a typical monthly driving distance; someone please correct me of that's wrong. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On 08/29/2014 03:36 AM, Martin WINLOW via EV wrote: Now the dust has settled somewhat, does anyone has the insider knowledge of why Tesla abandoned the 40kWh pack and why, more interestingly, it didn't come with a supercharger option? I still think it would have a market, particularly in Asia and Europe where shorter average journeys are the norm - but only with an SC option. The SuperCharger network is intended primarily to facilitate cross country travel. To cost effectively implement the network, node spacing needs to be maximized. That means the network is lowest cost when it is configured for longest range cars. I am astonished (and EXTREMELY pleased) that Tesla has made such rapid progress in the SuperCharger network. A network for shorter range cars would necessarily develop much more slowly. At this time, Tesla is supply constrained; they have little interest in selling lower priced cars; they are selling all the 85kwh cars they can produce. Why make an effort to sell lower priced 40kwh cars? In the future, we may well see much more closely spaced SuperChargers. For now, Tesla is pursuing the right course. IMHO. ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Why make an effort to sell lower priced 40kwh cars? - Right now, I agree, but ... because, as I previously stated, in Europe and much of Asia, long distance is not the issue, it's car cost and range anxiety. If you can sell a car for $10k less without the buyer having to worry about range anxiety (because there is a good rapid charge infrastructure - SC or something else) then you'll sell more cars. I appreciate that T is concentrating on supplying as many MS as it can at the moment... but what about 2 or 3 years time. I would much rather buy an MS with 150 mile range than a Gen3 with the same range even if it cost $10k more. I think lots of others would, too. We just don't need 300 mile range, or 200 for that matter, 95% of the time. Why cart around all that unnecessary weight and why pay for it, too, in the first place? MW On 29 Aug 2014, at 12:16, Willie2 via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On 08/29/2014 03:36 AM, Martin WINLOW via EV wrote: Now the dust has settled somewhat, does anyone has the insider knowledge of why Tesla abandoned the 40kWh pack and why, more interestingly, it didn't come with a supercharger option? I still think it would have a market, particularly in Asia and Europe where shorter average journeys are the norm - but only with an SC option. The SuperCharger network is intended primarily to facilitate cross country travel. To cost effectively implement the network, node spacing needs to be maximized. That means the network is lowest cost when it is configured for longest range cars. I am astonished (and EXTREMELY pleased) that Tesla has made such rapid progress in the SuperCharger network. A network for shorter range cars would necessarily develop much more slowly. At this time, Tesla is supply constrained; they have little interest in selling lower priced cars; they are selling all the 85kwh cars they can produce. Why make an effort to sell lower priced 40kwh cars? In the future, we may well see much more closely spaced SuperChargers. For now, Tesla is pursuing the right course. IMHO. ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
in Europe... Asia, long distance is not the issue, it's car cost and range anxiety. If you can sell a car for $10k less without the buyer having to worry about range anxiety (because there is a good rapid charge infrastructure...) then you'll sell more cars. The goal is not to just sell more EVs to everyone, especially if the car does not match the individual's need. That would be WORSE PR than no sale at all. The goal is to stop burning fossil fuel for everyday local commuting which can be done better/cheaper/and more conveniently (never having to refuel) in an EV. [as long as it is plugged in overnight (or at work) while parked]. EV's CHARGE WHILE PARKED. If ANY driver expects to have to do recharging on the road while in use, then that driver and application should NOT by considering an EV. Period. Trying to force the value-promise of the EV (ideal for daily commuting) into the long distance, drive anywhere/anytime versatility of a gas car is doing a disservice to the future of EV's. ANYONE who buys an EV with the idea of daily public-charging no matter how fast does not understand the value promise of EV's and will rapidly tire of the everyday/ALWAYS need of finding a place to charge and a daily way to WASTE X amount of time waiting for the process. This will turn off more people to EV's than the few added sells would gain. Refueling ANY car is a real pain in the rear. It is avoided by everyone. Buying an EV with the idea of having an EV infrastructure and frequent public charging and have to move the cars every hour all day long to make up the difference is unsustainable and a greater inconvenience. We need to stop focusing on range (and public charging). Focus on educating drivers of the EV value-promise... The maximum value to the owner of the ultimate in vehicle convenience, that is, Charging-while-parked, and beginning every use with a full tank. If that model does not meet one's need, then an EV is not for them. Remember, some EV Charging stations are like Aluminum siding, fancy windows, Gutter guards, chimney cleaning, etc, that is, a third-party product that salesmen can use the fear tactic to sell to other people who maybe don't need it. Bob, WB4APR ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On 08/29/2014 08:38 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV wrote: The goal is to stop burning fossil fuel for everyday local commuting which can be done better/cheaper/and more conveniently (never having to refuel) in an EV. [as long as it is plugged in overnight (or at work) while parked]. EV's CHARGE WHILE PARKED. If ANY driver expects to have to do recharging on the road while in use, then that driver and application should NOT by considering an EV. Period. I wonder where you live? And how closely you have looked at the SuperCharger network? Your usna.edu address indicates Maryland? If so, you can drive a Tesla all up and down the east coast and to Chicago and beyond. And, soon, MANY other places. Drive a couple of hours, then take a head and coffee break for half an hour. I agree that the vast majority of charges should be done overnight and without depending on public J1772s. And that the commercial development of J1772 networks is a great disappointment. Using that charging infrastructure on a daily basis is far too expensive and far too inconvenient. It is nice to have as an emergency backup. Though RV parks are more useful and more prevalent. However, where the SuperCharger network is built out, road trips are very easy and convenient. Especially with a 85kwh battery. I've posted of my trips from Texas to Kansas and Texas to Wisconsin this past winter. South of the first SuperCharger in Normal Illinois, that trip was quite tedious. From Illinois to Wisconsin and back was smooth as silk. In the near term, I'm looking forward to having Texas connected to Florida and Georgia and to Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado. THEN I will really be doing some traveling! I check this site almost daily: http://supercharge.info/ ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Fri, Aug 29, 2014 at 1:36 AM, Martin WINLOW via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: Now the dust has settled somewhat, does anyone has the insider knowledge of why Tesla abandoned the 40kWh pack and why, more interestingly, it didn't come with a supercharger option? I remember reading some time ago that there were so few 40kWh pack orders that it was cheaper for them to just make the 60kWh packs and software limit them to 40kWh for those few early orders, thus nearly eliminating a SKU. I'm sure they would have no trouble starting up the 40kWh production for other markets if the demand were high enough. As for no supercharger option, my guess is that it wasn't a technical issue but instead a cost cutting issue. The price of the car didn't need to include the few grand added to the price. -- David D. Nelson http://evalbum.com/1328 http://www.levforum.com ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On 29 Aug 2014 at 9:38, Robert Bruninga via EV wrote: We need to stop focusing on range (and public charging). Focus on educating drivers of the EV value-promise. Maybe I'm just seeing this with older eyes than you are, but it seems to me that we've been trying to do just that for nearly a half century. It hasn't gotten us very far yet. In fact, I'd say that Tesla's range and their superchargers have probably put far more EVs on the road since 2008 than we EV educators have since 1967. (The fact that they're just bloody good cars doesn't hurt, either.) IIRC, the average person thinks that he needs about 150 miles of EV range. He doesn't really, but that's his perception. In most of the world, and certainly in the US, perception trumps reality. Hundreds (maybe thousands) of EV startups have stumbled over that sad truth. People have certain needs and expectations (they're not the same thing) for their cars. There's no percentage in fighting that. Now, if you're building something other than a car or light truck as an EV, that might be another matter. I think this is one reason that ebikes are an EV success story - potential customers' expectations for them are quite different from their expectations for 4-wheeled vehicles. They're also so cheap as to almost be an impulse purchase for some people. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to evpost and etpost addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 29, 2014, at 10:27 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: IIRC, the average person thinks that he needs about 150 miles of EV range. He doesn't really, but that's his perception. That depends on your definition of, need. Sure, 90% of trips are under 150 miles -- but just think of everywhere you might want to go and everything you might want to do that's 80 miles away. Especially on the West Coast, and most especially in those flyover states, an awful lot of stuff fits in that 80- or even 100-mile radius. The usual suggestion is to rent or use some other means of travel for those trips -- or even to cast aspersions on the character of the person for wanting to be so wasteful as to travel in the first place. In reality, that takes those day trips from something you might do on the spur of the moment after breakfast on a Saturday morning to something that requires extra planning, extra expense, extra hassle...and all that adds up. Now, is the extra cost one pays for a gasoline vehicle really worth the convenience of that type of freedom? Clearly, for so many people, the answer is a resounding, YES! BEVs make awesome commuter cars, but they're not going to be replacements for gasoline cars until you can put 500 miles a day on one in arbitrary directions with no more concern for getting stranded than you might have for running out of gas. As an example...it's half past noon here in Tempe as I type. I could, if I wanted, hop in the car right now and drive up to Flagstaff, eat an early dinner, then drive around until I found a motel with vacancy, spend the night there, and be at the Grand Canyon before sunrise tomorrow morning with the camera already set up on the tripod. And maybe I'd decide on a whim to spend Sunday at Monument Valley? That's not remotely possible even with an 85 kWh Tesla -- but it's not even something to think twice about with my '68 VW Westfalia. For many, even if they don't iactually/i do that sort of thing, they're not going to consider an EV (at least as a primary car) until it offers that as a possibility. And that's the great thing about the Volt: it does both. For most people, it's basically a pure BEV -- but they can still hop in it on a Friday afternoon, spend the evening and night in Flagstaff and the rest of the weekend at the Grand Canyon, and be back home Sunday evening and still drive electrically to work Monday morning. Do BEVs represent the long-range future of vehicles? No doubt. But it's even more certain that PHEVs represent the immediate future of EVs -- especially considering how many non-plugin hybrids are already on the road and how relatively straightforward it is to retrofit them for at least enough plugin electric range to make it to the grocery store and back. For new models, manufacturers just have to start adding plugs...and imagine how much gas we'd save even if only the first five miles of every commute was all electric _and_ what that would do to public perception of EVs. Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/894eb228/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 9:44 PM, EVDL Administrator via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: However, for a long as I've followed EVs (and that's over 40 years) the battery has always been the main source of reliability problems. For me, too. That's why I'm looking to use the smallest pack I can get away with for my 1964 1/2 Mustang PHEV conversion, putting extra care into thermal management (what with the car being parked outside in the Phoenix metro area)...and, even still, mentally preparing myself for replacing whatever pack I go with sooner rather than later. Even if the pack is still at 80% capacity in ten years (which is way more than I'd reasonably anticipate), there'll be newer batteries that are cheaper, lighter, smaller, and have more capacity before then. If I went with a mass-manufacturered EV, I'd feel regret about what to do with the old batteries or worry if I was getting fair value on a trade-in or the like. Instead, so long as it doesn't die outright, I can use the old battery -- whatever I decide to go with -- as the start of an whole-house UPS to supplement the solar PV roof array. b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/2ebebba0/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
To Ben Goren, in particular and all of the members of the EVDL in general, I am not arguing with you and your need for range which can presently be met only with gasoline or diesel according to my interpretation of your statements. In the USA we have been surveyed and this data was presented to the public. It does not declare a definitive result based upon fuel type, only the mileage driven on a typical trip: 85% of driven trip miles were under 39 miles. Also, 99% of driven trip miles were less than 100 miles , leaving only 1% of trip miles being over 100 miles. There being about 300,000,000 vehicles driven in the USA. Only one percent is three million vehicles (Perhaps yours Mr. Goren,) driven over 100 miles on trips . You make very valid points in you statements, but, the other 99% (including me,) have different needs and my choice is a BEV as it suits my needs. (And I am not driving to the Grand Canyon this year. I simply state my opinion, Chose what meets your needs. On 8/29/14, Ben Goren via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On Aug 28, 2014, at 9:44 PM, EVDL Administrator via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: However, for a long as I've followed EVs (and that's over 40 years) the battery has always been the main source of reliability problems. For me, too. That's why I'm looking to use the smallest pack I can get away with for my 1964 1/2 Mustang PHEV conversion, putting extra care into thermal management (what with the car being parked outside in the Phoenix metro area)...and, even still, mentally preparing myself for replacing whatever pack I go with sooner rather than later. Even if the pack is still at 80% capacity in ten years (which is way more than I'd reasonably anticipate), there'll be newer batteries that are cheaper, lighter, smaller, and have more capacity before then. If I went with a mass-manufacturered EV, I'd feel regret about what to do with the old batteries or worry if I was getting fair value on a trade-in or the like. Instead, so long as it doesn't die outright, I can use the old battery -- whatever I decide to go with -- as the start of an whole-house UPS to supplement the solar PV roof array. b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/2ebebba0/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) -- Dennis Lee Miles (*evprofes...@evprofessor.com evprofes...@evprofessor.com)* * Founder:**EV Tech. Institute Inc.* *Phone #* *(863) 289-0690 (12 noon to 12 midnight Eastern US Time)* *Educating yourself, does not mean you were **stupid; it means, you are intelligent enough, **to know, that there is plenty left to learn!* * You Tube Video link: http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss * ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
I think one could argue that if you take a 100 mile trip once every 6 weeks, an EV for everything else might work. Renting once every 6 weeks would be reasonable, perhaps. However, aside from the Tesla, 100 mile trips aren't possible. More like 55 to 75 depending on vehicle and conditions. So, renting would be more frequent than 6 weeks and, as Ben says, probably past being a reasonable choice. Of course there are other factors. - Do you own two cars? - Can you charge at your destination (e.g. work)? - Is it easy to rent or borrow a car? - Can you charge at home? ... Peri -- Original Message -- From: Ben Goren via EV ev@lists.evdl.org To: Dennis Miles dmiles33...@gmail.com; Electric Vehicle Discussion List ev@lists.evdl.org Sent: 29-Aug-14 2:54:22 PM Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost? On Aug 29, 2014, at 1:50 PM, Dennis Miles dmiles33...@gmail.com wrote: 85% of driven trip miles were under 39 miles. Also, 99% of driven trip miles were less than 100 miles , leaving only 1% of trip miles being over 100 miles. Those statistics seem quite reasonable. What's _not_ reasonable is your interpretation of what they mean. Let's say those statistics apply to a not-atypical person who might make, say, fifteen trips per week. That's two trips five days a week for commuting to and from work, and another five trips for things like grocery shopping or social functions or taking the kids to soccer practice or whatever. In reality, it's probably a lot more once we add in lunch trips at work and doctor's appointments and picking the kids up from school and all the other things people use cars for, but we'll be conservative and go with fifteen trips per week. Eighty-five percent of fifteen works out to a bit over twice a week that this person needs more than 40 miles of range -- a statistic that passes the sniff test, at least for me. A car limited to a 40 mile range is simply a non-starter for that person -- especially if, as is so common, the need for such range is unpredictable. (And, of course, you've got to get back and have some reserves, so you need about a 100-mile range to be able to make a 40-mile trip, unless you can really count on rapid charging at the destination, something we're a long way from. Even the Leaf doesn't come close to cutting it for this person, with only five EPA miles of Murphy factor.) Fifteen trips a week is 780 trips a year. One percent of that is about eight trips a year...or one such trip every six weeks. Again, a car limited to a 100 mile range is a complete non-starter for this person, again particularly if the long-distance trips happen with minimal predictability. Maybe I've misinterpreted your definition of trip, such that the daily commute is one trip, not two. Take my figures and divide them in half or double them as appropriate; every week this person is making at least one over-40-mile trip, and it's a few months between hundred-mile trips. This is nowhere near enough to meaningfully change the analysis. It makes a great soundbite to say that only 1% of trips are over 100 miles...but that betrays either ignorance of the true scale of car use or a less-than-honest distortion of that scale. Again, I'm all in favor of EVs of all types. For two-car families, it almost seems criminal to not have at least one EV, ideally a BEV. It seems similarly irresponsible to buy a new car that isn't at least a PHEV, or to refrain from converting all but the wimpiest of hybrids into plugins. What I won't do is pretend that BEVs are reasonable as the exclusive option for any but a negligibly small fraction of the driving public -- and I think this pretense of yours may well do more harm to the EV cause than anything else an individual can do. b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/581f18be/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Fri Aug 29 15:03:02 PDT 2014 ev@lists.evdl.org said: I think one could argue that if you take a 100 mile trip once every 6 weeks, an EV for everything else might work. Renting once every 6 weeks would be reasonable, perhaps. However, aside from the Tesla, 100 mile trips aren't possible. More like 55 to 75 depending on vehicle and conditions. So, renting would be more frequent than 6 weeks and, as Ben says, probably past being a reasonable choice. Of course there are other factors. - Do you own two cars? - Can you charge at your destination (e.g. work)? - Is it easy to rent or borrow a car? - Can you charge at home? Can you rent on the spur of the moment without wasting hours of time? -- Try my Sensible Email package! https://sourceforge.net/projects/sensibleemail/ ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Yes. Rental companies have those type of agreements - you get a key fob or something like that and can reserve a car online and minutes later go pick it up. Also, there's flex car and car-2-go. Peri -- Original Message -- From: John Lussmyer cou...@casadelgato.com To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List ev@lists.evdl.org; Peri Hartman pe...@kotatko.com Sent: 29-Aug-14 3:40:12 PM Subject: Re: EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost? On Fri Aug 29 15:03:02 PDT 2014 ev@lists.evdl.org said: I think one could argue that if you take a 100 mile trip once every 6 weeks, an EV for everything else might work. Renting once every 6 weeks would be reasonable, perhaps. However, aside from the Tesla, 100 mile trips aren't possible. More like 55 to 75 depending on vehicle and conditions. So, renting would be more frequent than 6 weeks and, as Ben says, probably past being a reasonable choice. Of course there are other factors. - Do you own two cars? - Can you charge at your destination (e.g. work)? - Is it easy to rent or borrow a car? - Can you charge at home? Can you rent on the spur of the moment without wasting hours of time? -- Try my Sensible Email package! https://sourceforge.net/projects/sensibleemail/ ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 29, 2014, at 3:03 PM, Peri Hartman via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: I think one could argue that if you take a 100 mile trip once every 6 weeks, an EV for everything else might work. Renting once every 6 weeks would be reasonable, perhaps. For some, perhaps. It's definitely much less convenient than get-in-the-car-and-go -- you've got to make reservations, get to the rental place during business hours, deal with all the paperwork, return the car during business hours, make sure you drop it off with a full tank...especially if you were looking to get an early start or come back late at night, that starts to turn into either or both a major inconvenience or significant additional expense. Possibly _very_ significant if you have to take time off work to pick up and / or return the car and pay for an additional day or two of rental fees. Basically, unless you're already renting for longer trips, switching to renting probably isn't going to be something you consider. Most people who rent cars do so after flying to their destination, and only small percentages do so in lieu of driving their own cars. BEVs aren't going to change the mental dynamics of that situation. But there's a larger problem. If everybody who currently drives their own vehicle for 80+ mile trips now needs to rent a car, those car rental companies need to dramatically expand and add huge numbers of gasoline cars to their fleets -- and have that much more parking space capacity both for their own vehicles and those of their clients, and all the rest. That cuts an awful lot into expected environmental gains as an whole -- you've still got huge numbers of gasoline cars being made and driven, plus being dumped onto the used car market after a year. Again, contrast that with the Volt and presumed future PHEVs with similar specs: they're pure electric BEVs for Dennis's 85% of trips, and they're 40% electric for 100-mile trips. And all this in a single vehicle, with no need for a second one. It'll be fantastic when BEVs can compete with that...but that day is a looong time coming. In the mean time, BEVs as a great possibility for the second car for families that're going to have two cars anyway, and PHEVs in place of pure gasoline cars for all the rest. And, please, let's not pretend otherwise! Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/ad8457b6/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
You bring up a lot of useful considerations, Ben. I'll just quibble somewhat with your conclusion below about BEVs as a second car. ...for families that are going to have two cars anyway... Actually a lot of folks are reporting that what becomes the second car is the ICE, not the BEV. That's our experience, too. We drive the electric car on the vast majority of our trips, while the ICE car is used rarely. Of course YMMV. With current tech, something like the Volt makes sense for a single car family when usage patterns (and budget) requires some percentage of long trips beyond affordable electric range and/or fast charging. But for a two car family the possibilities open up a bit more, and that's where trip length statistics favor the BEV as being the first car covering most of the trips. Maybe unexpectedly so, for some folks. The Volt can be a good second car in that scenario. So, bottom line, it's good to have choices right now. People have different needs to meet. As you pointed out, all the options we're discussing help transfer miles to electric. As the battery tech and charging infrastructure continue to develop, the BEV configuration becomes more and more applicable to more and more driving patterns. Cheers, -Jamie On 8/29/14 4:43 PM, Ben Goren via EV wrote: On Aug 29, 2014, at 3:03 PM, Peri Hartman via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: I think one could argue that if you take a 100 mile trip once every 6 weeks, an EV for everything else might work. Renting once every 6 weeks would be reasonable, perhaps. For some, perhaps. It's definitely much less convenient than get-in-the-car-and-go -- you've got to make reservations, get to the rental place during business hours, deal with all the paperwork, return the car during business hours, make sure you drop it off with a full tank...especially if you were looking to get an early start or come back late at night, that starts to turn into either or both a major inconvenience or significant additional expense. Possibly _very_ significant if you have to take time off work to pick up and / or return the car and pay for an additional day or two of rental fees. Basically, unless you're already renting for longer trips, switching to renting probably isn't going to be something you consider. Most people who rent cars do so after flying to their destination, and only small percentages do so in lieu of driving their own cars. BEVs aren't going to change the mental dynamics of that situation. But there's a larger problem. If everybody who currently drives their own vehicle for 80+ mile trips now needs to rent a car, those car rental companies need to dramatically expand and add huge numbers of gasoline cars to their fleets -- and have that much more parking space capacity both for their own vehicles and those of their clients, and all the rest. That cuts an awful lot into expected environmental gains as an whole -- you've still got huge numbers of gasoline cars being made and driven, plus being dumped onto the used car market after a year. Again, contrast that with the Volt and presumed future PHEVs with similar specs: they're pure electric BEVs for Dennis's 85% of trips, and they're 40% electric for 100-mile trips. And all this in a single vehicle, with no need for a second one. It'll be fantastic when BEVs can compete with that...but that day is a looong time coming. In the mean time, BEVs as a great possibility for the second car for families that're going to have two cars anyway, and PHEVs in place of pure gasoline cars for all the rest. And, please, let's not pretend otherwise! Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/ad8457b6/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 29, 2014, at 4:32 PM, Jamie K via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: I'll just quibble somewhat with your conclusion below about BEVs as a second car. Excellent point. Obviously, a car that's superior (and actually used) for 85% of driving should be considered the primary car -- even if such a car generally isn't an option as the only car for a single-car family. As the battery tech and charging infrastructure continue to develop, the BEV configuration becomes more and more applicable to more and more driving patterns. Absolutely, and that's a great deal about what's so exciting right now. We're actually at a point where a BEV _can_ be an only car for at least a few people, and where it can be the first car -- using your reformulation of my sloppy usage -- for the majority. And, we're definitely at the point where an almost-always-electric PHEV can be the only, primary, or secondary car for just about anybody. Not that long ago, options such as we have today were wishful fantasy b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140829/86e55f20/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
85% of driven trip miles were under 39 miles. Also, 99% of driven trip miles were less than 100 miles , leaving only 1% of trip miles being over 100 miles. Less than one percent of trips are over 100 miles. That suggests that three trips per year are over 100 miles. Not having the original source you have confused the data, possibly because of my presentation, of the original data. Sorry about that. Driven trip miles are per calendar day. There are 365 days per year, and one percent is 3.65 days with trips over 100 miles for 99 % of automobile drivers. Then One percent drive in excess of 100 miles each day , that is three million drivers who regularly drive in excess of 100 miles in their daily total miles driven. I am sorry to have confused the issue. I had an excellent graphic illustrating this data from the same US Government agency who performed the research study, but I lost it when my computer hard drive crashed last Spring. Perhaps it is still available on the internet but my service (Hughesnet) limits my usage toward the end of the month when my allotment is exceeded... Dennis Lee Miles evprofes...@evprofessor.com Founder:*EV Tech. Institute Inc.* *Phone #* *(863) 289-0690 (12 noon to 12 midnight Eastern US Time)* *Educating yourself, does not mean you were **stupid; it means, you are intelligent enough, **to know, that there is plenty left to learn!* * You Tube Video link: http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss * ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
[EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
http://www.torquenews.com/2250/battery-prices-fall-greater-range-or-lower-cost-more-important-evs
As EV battery prices fall, is greater range or lower cost more important?
By Luke Ottaway 2014-08-20
[image] Tesla EV
A new study brings an old topic back to the forefront: how much range is
enough, and is it better to use battery advancements to decrease price
without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge?
The cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen significantly in a short time
and will continue to drop as the market for advanced electric vehicle
batteries grows. The improvements pose a critical question to automakers:
how much range is enough? About what we have now, according to a recent
study. A researcher for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Zhenhong Lin,
concluded as much in his paper Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle
Driving Range for US Drivers, published in Transportation Science (via
Charged EVs).
What the study found
The study closely examined 36,664 sample drivers for things like driving
habits and charging infrastructure availability, concluding that for most
people the current status quo of sub-100 mile range is adequate.
Lin proposed a way to optimize desired driving range by converting range
limitation to a ‘cost’ to measure range anxiety and minimizing the sum of
battery, electricity, and range limitation costs.
“The quantitative results strongly suggest that ranges of less than 100
miles are likely to be more popular in the BEV market for a long period of
time,” according to the author. As long as battery pack costs remain above
$100/kWh, which will be the case for a while, it mathematically makes the
most sense to drive down vehicle costs through battery cost reductions
rather than use those advancements to improve range.
Why we disagree
No study is perfect, and this one is no exception. Whether or not a sub-100
mile range is actually feasible for these (or any) drivers, what matters is
that the driver thinks it is feasible. Perception trumps reality when it
comes to range anxiety, at least for the time being.
Though there is certainly a place for electric vehicles like the Nissan LEAF
and its current 84-mile range, psychological barriers and the need for
longer trips means that electric vehicles must diversify their offerings to
include longer-range options.
[© torquenews.com]
...
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-may-use-wonder-material-graphene-to-push-teslas-cars-to-an-800km-range-2014-8
Elon Musk May Use 'Wonder Material' Graphene To Push Tesla's Cars To An
800km Range
Dave Smith [20140825]
...
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/25/500-mile-tesla-graphene-battery/
500-Mile Tesla Graphene Battery?
August 25th, 2014
For all EVLN posts use:
http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/template/NamlServlet.jtp?macro=search_pagenode=413529query=evlnsort=date
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/lithium-batteries-leading-electrochemical-energy-storage-technologies_100016157/
Lithium batteries leading electrochemical energy storage technologies
http://ecomento.com/2014/08/27/german-ev-owners-revolt-against-alarming-tesla-group-test/
German range comparison test findings upset EV owners deemed harsh
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/telefonix-l1-powerpost-electric-vehicle-charging-station-compatibility-confirmed-by-nissan-271377081.html
Telefonix l1powerpost.com EVSE Compatibility Confirmed by Nissan
+
EVLN: Startup sakti3.com sez 480mi EVs doable aims for $100/kWh packs
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Thu, Aug 28, 2014 at 3:53 AM, brucedp5 via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: A new study brings an old topic back to the forefront: how much range is enough, and is it better to use battery advancements to decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Why is that such a hard concept to process, especially when Tesla is already doing it? Keep the ~80 mile range for most drivers, but include an optional long-range pack option of over 100 miles. Everybody wins, and EVs can start growing out of their self-imposed short hop characterization. Face it - most places that aren't California (or a very few other forward-thinking locales) don't have the infrastructure to support using an EV without some level of range anxiety. I would love to commute in an OEM EV, but even a shorter-than-average 25 mile commute becomes an issue in winter or after several years of age on the pack. A 100+ mile range would erase all anxiety. We have the technology. Can we please use it? Why we disagree No study is perfect, and this one is no exception. Whether or not a sub-100 mile range is actually feasible for these (or any) drivers, what matters is that the driver thinks it is feasible. Perception trumps reality when it comes to range anxiety, at least for the time being. Though there is certainly a place for electric vehicles like the Nissan LEAF and its current 84-mile range, psychological barriers and the need for longer trips means that electric vehicles must diversify their offerings to include longer-range options. I could not have said it better. Studies like this necessarily use current conditions and extrapolate. But this is an emerging technology. If you act based on conclusions taken from where you've been and where you are, you tend to go where you're headed - not where you want to be. Tesla understands this trap and avoids it. (If the genius of their business model was reduced to one thing, that would be it.) The Tesla Model III won't be limited to 80 miles. I'm betting there will be more than one range option. What happens to the other players when it comes out? Chris -- next part -- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/4d0895e3/attachment.htm ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 4:54 AM, Chris Tromley via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On Thu, Aug 28, 2014 at 3:53 AM, brucedp5 via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: A new study brings an old topic back to the forefront: how much range is enough, and is it better to use battery advancements to decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Exactly! Almost always missing from these discussions is that -- shock and horror! -- not all drivers have the same needs. I have an uncle who lives in San Francisco, and he has a Fit EV that's part of Honda's pilot program. He loves it. I honestly can't imagine a better car for him. Size, range, economics, performance -- it's a perfect, pardon the pun, fit. Sure, wave a magic faery wand and give it more range and that wouldn't hurt anything...but, in the real world, that would mean compromising some other aspect of the car -- and for no practical benefit. Now, imagine, say, a high-end real estate agent in Dallas who has rural clients. The Fit would perhaps be the cruelest joke you could foist upon such a person. She's actually going to need that 400+ mile range, and telling her she can get by just fine with something that gets less than an hundred miles before needing to charge for at least an hour...well, it's insulting to her and reinforces the stereotype that EV enthusiasts are puritanical tree-huggers completely out of touch with reality. But offer her a Tesla with a 400+ mile range at today's base model prices, and she'll fight to be first in line to buy one. Horses for courses and all that jazz. Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/c927b0bd/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
how much range is enough...is it better to... decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Amen. I like the new Nissan concept of a range of batteries to match the individual. I do not want to spend extra 10's of thousands of dollars for an extra 50 miles range that I only need 2% of the time. That makes that 2% travel very expensive. Back when TESLA offered three range batteries, the cost difference was something like an extra $50,000 to go from their smallest battery to the largest. That means if one generally uses the Tesla for local travel, then those once a month trips over 250 miles are costing an extra $50,000. For that money, one can rent a gas car EVERY weekend for 10 years including gas, and not have to lug around the extra 500 lbs of battery every day commuting. On the other hand, if one travels 200 miles often, then there is no question, the extra $50,000 gives you a great EV to make the trip. Bob, WB4APR ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 6:51 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: how much range is enough...is it better to... decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Amen. I like the new Nissan concept of a range of batteries to match the individual. I do not want to spend extra 10's of thousands of dollars for an extra 50 miles range that I only need 2% of the time. That makes that 2% travel very expensive. Back when TESLA offered three range batteries, the cost difference was something like an extra $50,000 to go from their smallest battery to the largest. That means if one generally uses the Tesla for local travel, then those once a month trips over 250 miles are costing an extra $50,000. For that money, one can rent a gas car EVERY weekend for 10 years including gas, and not have to lug around the extra 500 lbs of battery every day commuting. On the other hand, if one travels 200 miles often, then there is no question, the extra $50,000 gives you a great EV to make the trip. Bob, WB4APR This also suggests a leasing model for the battery pack. The car can be purchased or leased separately from the battery pack. Someone who needs a long range can lease a battery pack with a guaranteed capacity of something like 60KWH. When the pack capacity drops below this, it can be turned in for one that has the guaranteed capacity. The first pack can then be leased for another car at a lower guaranteed capacity (presumably for a lower fee). This process can be continued until the pack is no longer useful for mobile applications. At this point, packs can be used for stationary applications like grid stability, peak load shaving, and similar things. When they are no longer useful for these applications, they can be taken out of service and recycled into a new high capacity pack again. A driver who need a 25KWH pack most of the time, but on a special occasion, needs a 60KWH pack, can simply have the pack swapped and pay the extra fee for as long as the higher capacity is needed. For example, in colder climates, a higher capacity pack might be needed for a few months of the year. Someone taking a vacation might need a higher capacity pack for a weekend or a few weeks. Ed ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Hi Ed, I agree with your logistical work up. It makes sense. But... can simply have the pack swapped This jumps out at me as a stretch. You are talking about putting in 140% more battery pack to get to 60kWh At the very least, you would have to buy a car with 140% more space in it for batteries than it needs most of the time, and the effects on handling can't be negligible. If it was trunk space, then when making a long trip you would reduce your carrying capacity significantly. No car designer would look at this as simply. On Thu, Aug 28, 2014 at 12:01 PM, Ed Blackmond via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On Aug 28, 2014, at 6:51 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: how much range is enough...is it better to... decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Amen. I like the new Nissan concept of a range of batteries to match the individual. I do not want to spend extra 10's of thousands of dollars for an extra 50 miles range that I only need 2% of the time. That makes that 2% travel very expensive. Back when TESLA offered three range batteries, the cost difference was something like an extra $50,000 to go from their smallest battery to the largest. That means if one generally uses the Tesla for local travel, then those once a month trips over 250 miles are costing an extra $50,000. For that money, one can rent a gas car EVERY weekend for 10 years including gas, and not have to lug around the extra 500 lbs of battery every day commuting. On the other hand, if one travels 200 miles often, then there is no question, the extra $50,000 gives you a great EV to make the trip. Bob, WB4APR This also suggests a leasing model for the battery pack. The car can be purchased or leased separately from the battery pack. Someone who needs a long range can lease a battery pack with a guaranteed capacity of something like 60KWH. When the pack capacity drops below this, it can be turned in for one that has the guaranteed capacity. The first pack can then be leased for another car at a lower guaranteed capacity (presumably for a lower fee). This process can be continued until the pack is no longer useful for mobile applications. At this point, packs can be used for stationary applications like grid stability, peak load shaving, and similar things. When they are no longer useful for these applications, they can be taken out of service and recycled into a new high capacity pack again. A driver who need a 25KWH pack most of the time, but on a special occasion, needs a 60KWH pack, can simply have the pack swapped and pay the extra fee for as long as the higher capacity is needed. For example, in colder climates, a higher capacity pack might be needed for a few months of the year. Someone taking a vacation might need a higher capacity pack for a weekend or a few weeks. Ed ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) -- Put this question to yourself: should I use everyone else to attain happiness, or should I help others gain happiness? *Dalai Lama * Tell me what it is you plan to do With your one wild and precious life? Mary Oliver, The summer day. To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk. Thomas A. Edison http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasaed125362.html A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. *Warren Buffet* Michael E. Ross (919) 550-2430 Land (919) 576-0824 https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones Google Phone (919) 631-1451 Cell (919) 513-0418 Desk michael.e.r...@gmail.com michael.e.r...@gmail.com -- next part -- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/19248804/attachment.htm ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Yes but to make battery swapping economical we need the D cell for car batteries and given the proliferation of laptop and camera batteries that seems unlikely. You can buy a rechargeable D cell at your local retail store that has a capacity of 2200maH just like the AA beside it - guess what - it's just a AA in sheep clothing. You can also get a D cell with 10,000maH capacity for several times the price and it weights considerably more. So pick what you need they will both fit in the same flashlight or radio or toy robot or ... Lawrence Harris On Aug 28, 2014, at 9:01 AM, Ed Blackmond via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On Aug 28, 2014, at 6:51 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: how much range is enough...is it better to... decrease price without improving range or make electric vehicles go further on a charge? Why not do both? Amen. I like the new Nissan concept of a range of batteries to match the individual. I do not want to spend extra 10's of thousands of dollars for an extra 50 miles range that I only need 2% of the time. That makes that 2% travel very expensive. Back when TESLA offered three range batteries, the cost difference was something like an extra $50,000 to go from their smallest battery to the largest. That means if one generally uses the Tesla for local travel, then those once a month trips over 250 miles are costing an extra $50,000. For that money, one can rent a gas car EVERY weekend for 10 years including gas, and not have to lug around the extra 500 lbs of battery every day commuting. On the other hand, if one travels 200 miles often, then there is no question, the extra $50,000 gives you a great EV to make the trip. Bob, WB4APR This also suggests a leasing model for the battery pack. The car can be purchased or leased separately from the battery pack. Someone who needs a long range can lease a battery pack with a guaranteed capacity of something like 60KWH. When the pack capacity drops below this, it can be turned in for one that has the guaranteed capacity. The first pack can then be leased for another car at a lower guaranteed capacity (presumably for a lower fee). This process can be continued until the pack is no longer useful for mobile applications. At this point, packs can be used for stationary applications like grid stability, peak load shaving, and similar things. When they are no longer useful for these applications, they can be taken out of service and recycled into a new high capacity pack again. A driver who need a 25KWH pack most of the time, but on a special occasion, needs a 60KWH pack, can simply have the pack swapped and pay the extra fee for as long as the higher capacity is needed. For example, in colder climates, a higher capacity pack might be needed for a few months of the year. Someone taking a vacation might need a higher capacity pack for a weekend or a few weeks. Ed ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Certainly the BEV dan be designed to make the battery swappable, or to make it modular and adding another module for longer range becomes feasible simply putting the pack modules in a box below the cabin floor could be one solution but a retrofit to a model which never intended supplemental packs may be unreasonable (That and other details is what screwed Better Place ! ) The key here is allowing range flexibility whether or not it is variable , may be a marketable premium detail. On 8/28/14, Michael Ross via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: All I am saying is that simply is not really that simple. Tesla made a very good choice with their battery design. For them it IS simpl-er. It took a clean salte for them to do it. Handling is not an issue for the S by virtue of that choice. There is a certain material inefficiency to make the car larger for something it only has to do occasionally. It is a choice I would not make. I would buy a car that does most of my traveling in its standard form. When on a long trip, I might rent or drive ICE. I used to buy careworn used cars and rent for trips to save money. It makes sense. On Thu, Aug 28, 2014 at 12:32 PM, Willie2 via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On 08/28/2014 11:16 AM, Michael Ross via EV wrote: Hi Ed, I agree with your logistical work up. It makes sense. But... can simply have the pack swapped This jumps out at me as a stretch. You are talking about putting in 140% more battery pack to get to 60kWh At the very least, you would have to buy a car with 140% more space in it for batteries than it needs most of the time, and the effects on handling can't be negligible. If it was trunk space, then when making a long trip you would reduce your carrying capacity significantly. No car designer would look at this as simply. You may have a conversion mindset. A well designed purpose built EV can easily accommodate a range of battery sizes. Witness the Tesla S, originally offered with three sizes. 40-85kwh. And I doubt there was much difference in the center of gravity between the three batteries. With the improving energy density, we can soon expect 100+ kwh in the same form factor. ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/ group/NEDRA) -- Put this question to yourself: should I use everyone else to attain happiness, or should I help others gain happiness? *Dalai Lama * Tell me what it is you plan to do With your one wild and precious life? Mary Oliver, The summer day. To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk. Thomas A. Edison http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasaed125362.html A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. *Warren Buffet* Michael E. Ross (919) 550-2430 Land (919) 576-0824 https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones Google Phone (919) 631-1451 Cell (919) 513-0418 Desk michael.e.r...@gmail.com michael.e.r...@gmail.com -- next part -- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/943cd512/attachment.htm ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) -- Dennis Lee Miles (*evprofes...@evprofessor.com evprofes...@evprofessor.com)* * Founder:**EV Tech. Institute Inc.* *Phone #* *(863) 289-0690 (12 noon to 12 midnight Eastern US Time)* *Educating yourself, does not mean you were **stupid; it means, you are intelligent enough, **to know, that there is plenty left to learn!* * You Tube Video link: http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss http://youtu.be/T-FVjMRVLss * ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Thu Aug 28 10:31:39 PDT 2014 ev@lists.evdl.org said: Certainly the BEV dan be designed to make the battery swappable, or to make it modular and adding another module for longer range becomes feasible simply putting the pack modules in a box below the cabin floor could be one solution but a retrofit to a model which never intended supplemental packs may be unreasonable (That and other details is what screwed Better Place ! ) The key here is allowing range flexibility whether or not it is variable , may be a marketable premium detail. And you need to weigh the added cost of Lease handling (labor to swap packs, storage, etc..) against just renting a long-range car for occaisional trips. -- Worlds only All Electric F-250 truck! http://john.casadelgato.com/Electric-Vehicles/1995-Ford-F-250 ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 10:31 AM, Dennis Miles via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: Certainly the BEV dan be designed to make the battery swappable Indeed, Tesla has already done that. I'm sure most here have already seen this, but even so it's worth the few minutes to watch it again: http://www.teslamotors.com/batteryswap In less time than it takes for a gasoline-powered car (with a tank presumably with only fumes left) to pull up and drive away, not one but *two* Tesla Ss pull up over the robot and get batteries swapped and drive away. Musk, for all his awkward self-effacing demeanor, is a great showman. I'm personally guessing that this type of battery swap is soon going to be remembered as the same sort of quaint anachronism as the flip-out turn signals of the '50s; I think we'll see battery capacity improvements easily outpace automated battery swap adoption. The future is going to mostly be slow-ish charging in parking spots with limited numbers of fast-charging stations clustered mostly along the interstates. But, still...there's no denying the sheer rocketman awesomeness of the Tesla battery swap! Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/93ad19fc/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
Don't know yet, might just let them run free and have you check food and gather eggs. Paul Ellcessor On Aug 28, 2014, at 10:39 AM, Ben Goren via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On Aug 28, 2014, at 10:09 AM, Michael Ross via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: There is a certain material inefficiency to make the car larger for something it only has to do occasionally. At the other end of the process, there's another type of efficiency gain for reducing the number of designs. If a manufacturer is still going to have to make that 400-mile range vehicle for you to lease for trips, they're stuck either making a small number of very expensive such vehicles that'll cost an arm and a leg even to lease or coming up with a design that works reasonably well for both 40- and 400-mile ranges. TANSTAAFL. I think Tesla's approach is probably perfect. Those first adopters who didn't care at all about price subsidized the price of today's luxury sedan buyers for whom the car is plenty good enough and who can afford the premium. They, in turn, are subsidizing a much larger market of non-luxury premium sedans that will again subsidize mass-market sedans. And all along the way, each car has at least good enough range for the target audience. There're also some striking parallels with digital cameras at play. A digital camera costs much, much, much more than a film camera, but you buy with it an unlimited lifetime supply of film. In the earliest days when a digital camera couldn't store much more than the equivalent of a roll or three of film, that didn't mean all that much. Today, however, it's not at all uncommon to be able to store thousands of frames on a single card, and to have a few such cards in the camera bag that can be swapped out even faster and easier than a roll of film. There are and always will be aesthetic reasons why some will prefer film and create great art with it, but by any objective technical measure film has become as primitive and outdated a technology for image capture as charcoal on papyrus. Right now, today's EVs are mostly at that point where digital cameras were when the onboard memory could only hold a few dozen photos and you had to plug the camera into your tower's SCSI port to download the pictures. The first floppy-based cameras are just coming onto the market and giving a real hint of the potential advantages... ...but we've got a ways to go before, as with today's cameras, nobody minds the premium price for the camera body because you'll never again have to pay somebody at the photo lab before you can see your pictures. What's especially exciting is that there actually are a few people driving cars like that today, so we know it can be done. It's just a matter of time before it becomes affordable and commonplace...assuming our petroleum-powered economy can keep going another decade or three so we can bootstrap ourselves to a prosperous post-petroleum one Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/b4828018/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 12:07 PM, Ed Blackmond via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: In the leasing model, battery packs have a guaranteed capacity. It does not have a guaranteed manufacture date. That implies a corollary: that you might buy the car with a lease on a 24 kWh battery...but are you still going to pay the same lease rate for that battery a couple years later when it's only a 20 kWh battery? Is the car going to report its battery capacity to the leasing agency, and you have a variable payment based on capacity? Will you be penalized if you run the car hard and the battery loses capacity faster than average? Will there be seasonal adjustments in extreme climates? A Tesla battery swap can be done in under two minutes, but I'm gonna take a wild guess and suggest that a Leaf battery swap is no less than an hour of shop time, conceivably a few hours if they didn't design it with ease-of-access in mind. If you have a 20 kWh battery as your daily driver and need a 90 kWh battery for your vacation trip, is it worth paying a couple hundred dollars in labor just for the privilege? Either *somebody* is going to have to eat those shop time costs (and that somebody will inevitably be you) or else the car is going to have to be designed for rapid swapping. But the engineering for rapid swapping is only going to make sense if it's a common occurrence, such as what Tesla anticipates for their charging station. An hour or three of labor every several years to swap end-of-service-life batteries is more than fast enough, but you need to get a battery swap to be the same type of job as a tire rotation for a lease model to make sense -- fast and easy, with no special skills required. And the engineering for that is probably not that far off the engineering for Tesla's automated 90-second swap. Then there's also the question of standardized battery packs, at least within a manufacturer's product lineup if not across all manufacturers. That probably won't happen until batteries have energy densities akin to gasoline. At that point, you can imagine a standardized suitcase-sized module that you just hoist into place; until then, we're going to continue to see batteries in all sorts of weird shapes and sizes and locations to accommodate different vehicle configurations. That's especially the case with today's EVs with their weight- and drag-induced design restrictions. It's a great idea, but I don't see it meeting a practical intersection of price and value before battery technology simply gets to the point that your BEV econobox has a multiple-hundred mile range with battery pack lifetimes comparable to today's ICE cars's engines and transmissions. On the other hand, if batteries _don't_ improve at the pace one might anticipate, that could well be the route the industry winds up taking. Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/0c59f725/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Thu, 28 Aug 2014, Ben Goren wrote: On Aug 28, 2014, at 12:07 PM, Ed Blackmond via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: In the leasing model, battery packs have a guaranteed capacity. It does not have a guaranteed manufacture date. That implies a corollary: that you might buy the car with a lease on a 24 kWh battery...but are you still going to pay the same lease rate for that battery a couple years later when it's only a 20 kWh battery? Is the car going to report its battery capacity to the leasing agency, and you have a variable payment based on capacity? Will you be penalized if you run the car hard and the battery loses capacity faster than average? Will there be seasonal adjustments in extreme climates? I would think it would work the other way. Instrumentation in the car would inform the driver of the capacaty the pack is able to guarantee. When it goes below the amount the driver is paying for, the driver would have the pack replaced or have the lease agreement modified. A Tesla battery swap can be done in under two minutes, but I'm gonna take a wild guess and suggest that a Leaf battery swap is no less than an hour of shop time, conceivably a few hours if they didn't design it with ease-of-access in mind. If you have a 20 kWh battery as your daily driver and need a 90 kWh battery for your vacation trip, is it worth paying a couple hundred dollars in labor just for the privilege? Either *somebody* is going to have to eat those shop time costs (and that somebody will inevitably be you) or else the car is going to have to be designed for rapid swapping. But the engineering for rapid swapping is only going to make sense if it's a common occurrence, such as what Tesla anticipates for their charging station. I would think that a manufacturer wishing to enable a pack swapping paradigm would design the vehicle and pack to make swapping as affordable and quick as possible. Then there's also the question of standardized battery packs, at least within a manufacturer's product lineup if not across all manufacturers. That probably won't happen until batteries have energy densities akin to gasoline. At that point, you can imagine a standardized suitcase-sized module that you just hoist into place; until then, we're going to continue to see batteries in all sorts of weird shapes and sizes and locations to accommodate different vehicle configurations. That's especially the case with today's EVs with their weight- and drag-induced design restrictions. I suspect all the manufacturers are looking at ways to standardize this already. They do it with everything else on the vehicles. The Nissan Leaf uses the same backup camera and software as other Nissan and Infiniti vehicles. The Navigation system is the same across their whole line of vehicles as well. The same goes for things like shocks, brakes, wheels, and lots of other things. Why would a battery pack be any different? It's a great idea, but I don't see it meeting a practical intersection of price and value before battery technology simply gets to the point that your BEV econobox has a multiple-hundred mile range with battery pack lifetimes comparable to today's ICE cars's engines and transmissions. On the other hand, if batteries _don't_ improve at the pace one might anticipate, that could well be the route the industry winds up taking. I see this as the way to make the econobox electric vehicles possible. The Nissan Leaf would sell for the same price as its essential twin the Versa and the battery pack would be leased. Ed ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On 28 Aug 2014 at 13:47, Ed Blackmond via EV wrote: I see this as the way to make the econobox electric vehicles possible. The Nissan Leaf would sell for the same price as its essential twin the Versa and the battery pack would be leased. This is what Renault (Nissan's French partner) is doing with their Zöe, and I think with their other EVs too. Personally, I don't like some of the terms of their lease, and probably wouldn't buy a Zöe for that reason, but that's just me. From what I've read, part of the idea behind their lease - they'll sell you the car, but not the battery - is to keep the car's selling price low. I think the battery lease costs about what you'd spend on on fuel for a comparable car for a typical monthly driving distance; someone please correct me of that's wrong. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to evpost and etpost addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 1:47 PM, Ed Blackmond via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: I see this as the way to make the econobox electric vehicles possible. The Nissan Leaf would sell for the same price as its essential twin the Versa and the battery pack would be leased. If it plays out like that and it speeds the electrification of the fleet, that would, of course, be awesome. It's just that that's not how I'm reading the tea leaves. I'll bet you a cup of coffee or other suitable beverage that, a decade from now, EVs will be at least as popular as non-plugin hybrids are today (with almost all other new cars as some sort of hybrid, whether plugin or not), but that battery swaps won't be a significant part of the equation. (The bet's off if peaking oil tanks the global economy and takes out RD efforts with it.) b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/8850887c/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 2:26 PM, EVDL Administrator via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: From what I've read, part of the idea behind their lease - they'll sell you the car, but not the battery - is to keep the car's selling price low. I think the battery lease costs about what you'd spend on on fuel for a comparable car for a typical monthly driving distance I wish them great success, but I don't see this as a winning strategy. Let's face it; unless you're the type of person to subscribe to this list, you're going to see econobox EVs as being less desirable than a comparable gasoline-powered car, if for no other reason than that it's something strange and different and new. You're going to need the EV to be significantly better for you personally, and for most that means significantly better financially on a timescale of not much more than a single year -- people who buy econoboxes generally don't have the capital to consider timeframes longer than that. If you just break even but still have the limited range and seating and cargo and all the rest, it's not going to sell. And an econobox that costs more -- that costs as much to purchase, as much to lease the battery as buy the gas, and then you have to pay for the electricity on top of it? And still has limited range and probably very slow charging? Who's going to be interested? I know marketing types love to lock people in to recurring fees, and I'm sure automakers are looking for ways to do that in yet more ways with EVs. But I just don't see leasing a battery as going over any better than leasing gas tanks or tires or windshield wiper fluid. It just reeks of nickel-and-diming, and sends the message that the battery is something overpriced and disposable for what it's being sold for. It'd make much more sense to simply not sell the car at all and only lease it -- though, of course, we saw what happened when GM did that with the EV1. Don't break out the price of the battery from the rest of the car. If you know it's not going to last, make that fact clear up front and offer an extended warranty / guaranteed exchange / whatever to cover it. Better yet, don't try to pass off disposable junk as durable goods, and just build the battery to last in the first place and market your car to a wealthier demographic until prices come down. Cheers, b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/6515bb85/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On 8/28/2014 5:49 PM, Ben Goren via EV wrote: On Aug 28, 2014, at 2:26 PM, EVDL Administrator via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: From what I've read, part of the idea behind their lease - they'll sell you the car, but not the battery - is to keep the car's selling price low. I think the battery lease costs about what you'd spend on on fuel for a comparable car for a typical monthly driving distance I know marketing types love to lock people in to recurring fees, and I'm sure automakers are looking for ways to do that in yet more ways with EVs. But I just don't see leasing a battery as going over any better than leasing gas tanks or tires or windshield wiper fluid. Slight variant: I'm leasing a Smart ED and renting the battery. I would do the same thing if I bought the car. After range anxiety, I think that battery anxiety is the next biggest worry. How long will it last? Can I live with it if the capacity drops by 20%? How expensive will it be to replace? All those issues go away if the battery is rented. The $80/mo to rent the battery was part of the advertised price so it wasn't a last-minute surprise. In general the difference between renting and leasing is who's responsible for maintenance. Me if I lease and the owner (landlord?) if I rent. I agree it makes no sense to lease a battery if I'm still responsible for it if it breaks. --Rick ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On Aug 28, 2014, at 6:16 PM, Rick Beebe via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: Slight variant: I'm leasing a Smart ED and renting the battery. Considering how young and rapidly evolving the EV world is, leasing and / or renting makes more sense than it does in the gasoline world. At the end of the lease the new models of both will have more creature comforts, but the EVs will also have more basic car stuff, like range and performance and service life. It's something to consider on the flip side, for those who buy: are you okay knowing that the new cars a few years from now will be noticeably better than what you buy today? Will you still be satisfied with your old 'n' busted model, or will you want to spend whatever it takes to get the new hawtness? That's a big part of the reason I'm going the DIY route, doing a PHEV conversion on a 1964 1/4 Mustang. I'll be able to make those choices about each component individually, and upgrade piecemeal over time should I so choose. For example, if some radical new and inexpensive battery technology comes out, I'll be able to build a new pack with it and turn the old 'n' busted pack into an whole-house UPS to supplement the solar panels that already cover my roof. If some new universal fast-charging standard comes out, I can switch to that without having to buy an entire new car. b -- next part -- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: signature.asc Type: application/pgp-signature Size: 801 bytes Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP using GPGMail URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20140828/f27a6773/attachment.pgp ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
Re: [EVDL] EVLN: As EV battery prices fall ?More range or lower 100mi EV cost?
On 28 Aug 2014 at 14:49, Ben Goren via EV wrote: an econobox that costs more -- that costs as much to purchase, as much to lease the battery as buy the gas, and then you have to pay for the electricity on top of it? And still has limited range and probably very slow charging? Who's going to be interested? Oui, vous avez raison. ;-) However, for a long as I've followed EVs (and that's over 40 years) the battery has always been the main source of reliability problems. Almost every EV I've seen advertised for sale has said needs batteries. In those days, lead batteries could get away with much simpler BMSes (or none), so that's what they got. Nothing prevented battricide in those EVs. They might replace the battery once or twice, but it wasn't long before they decided that EVs just weren't any match for ICEVs in reliability. It's better today, mostly because advanced batteries REQUIRE smart battery management systems. Still, even folks who haven't followed EVs know intuitively, from their experiences with laptops and mobile phones, that the battery is going to have a definite (and perhaps unpredictable) life. On 28 Aug 2014 at 21:16, Rick Beebe via EV wrote: After range anxiety, I think that battery anxiety is the next biggest worry. Exactly! battery leasing with guaranteed performance removes much of that anxiety. I may be naive to think this will actually happen, but it seems to me that the longer your battery lasts, the better the lessor makes out. That SHOULD create incentive for them to push battery makers to develop the most durable, cost effective battery possible. This is completely different from the model followed by the makers of most rechargeable appliances today: build it as cheaply as possible and let the customer worry about how long the battery lasts. Further, the quantities the battery lessors purchase could help to improve economy of scale. That's good for even folks who buy their batteries. As I see it, in an ideal world, every EV would use pretty much the same type of battery, just with different configurations (voltage and capacity) - just as today in an ICEV you can use almost any supplier's fuel, oil, tires, starting batteries, etc. With interchangeable batteries, or even interchangeable modules, just about any entrepreneur could jump in to build and lease a better battery. That would be even better for EV owners. But I doubt that that will happen. I expect the automakers will do whatever they can to lock EV buyers into the fuel (batteries) they supply. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to evpost and etpost addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
