Kevin O'Malley kevmol...@gmail.com wrote:
This is just his internal measuring stick.
I get it. I am just kidding.
To be fair, he has to put some dollar value on a bet, and it happens to be
$4.30.
I think it is silly to say this is the likelihood expressed as a percent.
He should simply say, I
On Sat, Jan 25, 2014 at 2:06 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
43%? Are you sure? I think it should be 51.8%. Then again, depending on
his grades at Yale, maybe only 47.53%. Just spitballing here . . . but I
don't see where you came up with 43%.
- Jed
While naturally some
I think the validation should be more in this style
10 up to minus 7 is stupid
1% is next to stupid
20% a hard call
50% a good chance and with some support very likely
80% JUST DO IT A SURE THING
The last two just requires attention.
I know I am an optimist and that my comments are anything but
He should simply say, I would bet 4 or 5 bucks based on my gut feeling.
***In essence, that's exactly what he did. When he first came onto Vortex,
within a few short days he swung his estimate by 60 points, based on ZERO
news. Then he's swung a few pointspartially based upon 2 items that had
On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 10:17 PM, Kevin O'Malley kevmol...@gmail.comwrote:
It reminds me of a woman who said she was willing to drive 12 miles to a
restaurant but not 12 a half. But on the way to the restaurant, she
detoured to buy a dress, travelling 40 miles out of her way. It's no big
Fortunately, I wasn't in the car with her. But her boyfriend was, and I
saw her insisting on her supposed rationality. At any rate, it's just a
story.
On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 10:20 PM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote:
On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 10:17 PM, Kevin O'Malley
STMicro has nothing to do with Rossi.
Cherokee stuff is all rumor, but at least it has something to do with Rossi.
3rd party reports in March -- he's been saying that all along, so why does
this suddenly mean an increase of 2%?
Defkalion has nothing to do with Rossi.
As has been stated upthread,
-
From: Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 3:39 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35%
Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest news coming
out of BLP and McKubre
Yes, for those who don't have an opinion, that's true you're very right,
they probably don't have an opinion.
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 9:02 PM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 1:33 PM, Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
wrote:
But the reality is 99%
Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest news coming out
of BLP and McKubre.
Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. The next indie
report on the ecat should be an interesting inflection report.
On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker
Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest news coming out
of BLP and McKubre.
Yesterday you were complaining about how stupid BLP and McKubre/Brillouin
are and how annoying they were behaving. Now you see value in these
reports, why? And you associate them with Rossi, why?
that LENR exists earlier at 31%, how would
they cash in now and make their 4% return?
Dave
-Original Message-
From: Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 3:39 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being
. foks0...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 3:48 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to 35%
Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest news coming out of
BLP and McKubre.
Yesterday you were complaining about how
usage. There has been more than enough evidence already
demonstrated.
Dave
-Original Message-
From: Foks0904 . foks0...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 3:48 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35
Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting inflection
report.
Okay, indie means independent. As in an indie movie festival.
That took me a while to translate from rad-speak to stan-Eng.
- Jed
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 3:48 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35%
Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest news coming
out of BLP and McKubre.
Yesterday you were complaining about how stupid BLP
]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35%
Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest news coming
out of BLP and McKubre.
Yesterday you were complaining about how stupid BLP and
McKubre/Brillouin are and how annoying they were behaving. Now you see
value
@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to 35%
So, Dave, I guess you're at .. what? 95%? 90%?
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM, David Roberson dlrober...@aol.com wrote:
John, it does seem rather arbitrary how his game
, Jan 16, 2014 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35%
So, Dave, I guess you're at .. what? 95%? 90%?
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM, David Roberson dlrober...@aol.comwrote:
John, it does seem rather arbitrary how his game works and hopefully
: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to 35%
What I find fascinating is you guys probably think I'm a downer for saying 35%.
But the reality is 99% of the scientific world probably thinks I'm a total
crank for putting that much faith into Rossi.
On Thu, Jan 16
to fall into the upper 90's.
Dave
-Original Message-
From: Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35%
So, Dave, I guess you're at .. what
Message-
From: Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com
To: vortex-l vortex-l@eskimo.com
Sent: Thu, Jan 16, 2014 4:24 pm
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards, to
35%
So, Dave, I guess you're at .. what? 95%? 90%?
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM, David
probability of Rossi being real upwards,
to 35%
So, Dave, I guess you're at .. what? 95%? 90%?
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM, David Roberson dlrober...@aol.comwrote:
John, it does seem rather arbitrary how his game works and hopefully
he can help me understand it better. Does anyone
Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
I have a history of successfully making such 'arbitrary' assessments based
on speculation / gossip / rumours / second hand information .. generally by
measuring the credibility of the individuals that I gather such information
from.
That
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Increasing probability of Rossi being real upwards,
to 35%
So, Dave, I guess you're at .. what? 95%? 90%?
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:54 PM, David Roberson
dlrober...@aol.comwrote:
John, it does seem rather arbitrary how his game works and hopefully
he can help me
On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 1:33 PM, Blaze Spinnaker
blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
But the reality is 99% of the scientific world probably thinks I'm a total
crank for putting that much faith into Rossi.
If not that, they would surely think you're a crank for being on this list.
Personally, I
I've worked with Gambling Industry people. It has never ended well.
Hopefully it's not the case with Rossi.
On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 10:27 PM, Lennart Thornros lenn...@thornros.comwrote:
Hello Blazoe, I did not understand all you said. I do believe we have
similar opinions. Hower, I believe
Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
I don't see Duncan as a big deal, more of a failure from an individual
point of view. He bailed on LENR and the big donation, that really speaks
more about him than LENR itself.
No, he did not. That is not what he says. He hopes to launch
Anyways. I have a long history of success in predicting future events on
Intrade, as well as a methodology that has worked out well. It's not
particularly difficult, it's just that few people bother to try.
I'm pretty sure if more people here (especially those who are reality based
versus
He hopes to launch another cold fusion project at Texas Tech.
That and 25 cents will probably get you an apple from the grocery store.
On Tue, Jan 7, 2014 at 6:48 AM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
I don't see Duncan as a big
What does real mean? Does it mean LENR is physically possible, does it mean
Rossi will commercialize LENR, does it mean DGT will commercialize
LENR...I could go on with another 100 variations of what does it mean?.
If the event that the odds are meant to describe is not defined in detail
to the
Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
He hopes to launch another cold fusion project at Texas Tech.
That and 25 cents will probably get you an apple from the grocery store.
You have made a speculative guess about Duncan's mindset. You say he has
bailed on cold fusion. I am sure you
Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.com wrote:
This is based on
- STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%)
- Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%)
Where did these numbers come from? 4.5% and 2.5% of what?
- Jed
I've worked with people in the Gambling industry, an industry which is very
predatorial and with very few scruples.
I had several opportunities to get involved but didn't because I couldn't
live with myself if I did. Not to mention all the people I'd be working
with were icky++
Porn and
From: Blaze Spinnaker
This is based on
* STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%)
* Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%)
* Rossi stating third party reports in March (increased 2%)
* Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%)
Fulvio , the tech Director R.D. at Leonardo Corporation MIAMI - FL - USA
previous job was:
Frelance
Consultanthttp://www.linkedin.com/search?search=title=Frelance+ConsultantsortCriteria=RkeepFacets=truecurrentTitle=CPtrk=prof-exp-titleEuropean
Gaming and Gambling Tech
Does that imply LENR is a gamble?
On Monday, January 6, 2014, Blaze Spinnaker wrote:
Fulvio , the tech Director R.D. at Leonardo Corporation MIAMI - FL - USA
previous job was:
Frelance
Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote:
If so, then the ARPA-E inclusion of LENR for funding should add something
positive, and the Defkalion departure from Canada should detract.
Did they depart from Canada? I thought they just moved to a new office.
On the other hand, I have heard through
I meant to say:
Robert Duncan moving from Missouri to Texas AM could go either way, no?
He told me, this will be good news for cold fusion. I guess that means
he is hoping to spread the . . .
MEANT:
I guess that means he is hoping to spread the Gospel of St. Martin even
unto the plains
On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 2:32 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote:
Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote:
If so, then the ARPA-E inclusion of LENR for funding should add something
positive, and the Defkalion departure from Canada should detract.
Did they depart from Canada? I
83.7% of statistics are made up on the spur of the moment.
The quote from Huff is suppose to be:
Most people will miss their GUESS by 15 minutes or more . . .
The operative word here is guess. Mr. Spinnaker's numbers are a guess.
I recommend this little book by Huff. It is only 142 pages long including
cute illustrations. Little books are sometimes
On Tue, Jan 7, 2014 at 4:56 AM, Blaze Spinnaker blazespinna...@gmail.comwrote:
Porn and Gambling are pretty much equivalent, moral wise.
Porn has good sides, both demystifying the human body and sexuality and
providing a source of sexual outlet when otherwise there might be few good
options.
Fair points.
Note that I am more mostly referring to Rossi and that LENR+ is currently
available in some secret lab somewhere.
It's worth noting that much like most people here I generally believe in
LENR itself and I am fairly optimistic that LENR+ might be possible at some
point, even if in
Hello Blazoe, I did not understand all you said. I do believe we have
similar opinions. Hower, I believe you have the partners yo deserve.
If gaming industry are interested then you know the chances are better than
60 to 70 %. Now, identify other people more seriious which can benefit from
LENR.
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