On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:53 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > > 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> > >> >> >> >> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:23 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> >>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:13 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]>wrote: >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:06 AM, Quentin Anciaux >>>>>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 3:25 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected] >>>>>>>> > wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 1:48 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 12:59 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Measure is relative, >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Yes, so your current measure of next finding yourself in a >>>>>>>>>>>> Drelb continuation, is relatively low compared to the measure of >>>>>>>>>>>> you still >>>>>>>>>>>> being conscious on Earth. But if you point a quantum gun at your >>>>>>>>>>>> head and >>>>>>>>>>>> pull the trigger 30 times, your Earth-continuation measure >>>>>>>>>>>> continues to >>>>>>>>>>>> fall, it is reduced by a factor of a billion. At this point, your >>>>>>>>>>>> Drelb-based extensions may become relatively higher than your >>>>>>>>>>>> Earth-based >>>>>>>>>>>> extensions, and therefore you would be likely to experience a >>>>>>>>>>>> transition to >>>>>>>>>>>> those realms of higher measure. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> it doesn't drop while you approach death. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Your measure drops whenever you make yourself more unique, >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> You doesn't, you always have an infinity of continuations. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> In measure theory ( >>>>>>>>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measure_(mathematics) ) just >>>>>>>>>> because there are an infinite number does not mean they are equal. >>>>>>>>>> Your >>>>>>>>>> measure each time you pull the trigger in the quantum gun is >>>>>>>>>> (approximately) halved. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> No, that is ASSA... >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> especially in those instances where you survive dangerous >>>>>>>>>>>> situations (such as falling from a height, or significantly aging). >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Your relative measure doesn't drop, >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Relative to what? Does not one's measure of being alive drop in >>>>>>>>>> half with each trigger pull, (relative to your measure of being alive >>>>>>>>>> before the trigger pull)? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> but the outcome to explain you're still alive can become more >>>>>>>>>>> strange... and drelb based extensions should not become much >>>>>>>>>>> higher, simple >>>>>>>>>>> physics should still have higher measure to explain your unlikely >>>>>>>>>>> survival. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> You are saying we cannot reduce one's measure for surviving in >>>>>>>>>> the physical universe to arbitrarily low levels? What would you say >>>>>>>>>> your >>>>>>>>>> relative measure of being alive in the physical world be after an >>>>>>>>>> atomic >>>>>>>>>> bomb went off 10 feet from you (relative to before it went off)? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Probabilities add up to one... >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Which probabilities are you referring to here? >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> The probabilities applies only on your continuation, the >>>>>>>>>>> partitioning of the infinity of continuations where you're alive >>>>>>>>>>> are the >>>>>>>>>>> probabilities to find yourself in such continuation or such other, >>>>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>>>> adds up to one... >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Think of it like this: There are 10,000 explanations for your >>>>>>>>>> current experience. 9,950 are various physical and biological >>>>>>>>>> instances of >>>>>>>>>> you living on Earth, 30 instances are various ancestor simulations >>>>>>>>>> run by >>>>>>>>>> future humans, 15 are by advanced aliens in other universes, and 5 >>>>>>>>>> are by >>>>>>>>>> Drelb-like entities. If you shoot yourself in the head with a >>>>>>>>>> quantum gun, >>>>>>>>>> 4,975 of the 9,950 biological instances are dead, and 25 of the 50 >>>>>>>>>> simulated ones awaken from the simulation. You pull the trigger >>>>>>>>>> again, and >>>>>>>>>> 2488 of the 4975 biological survivors from the first trigger pull >>>>>>>>>> are dead, >>>>>>>>>> and 13 of the 25 simulated survivors wake up from their simulation. >>>>>>>>>> Note >>>>>>>>>> that with each trigger pull, the proportion who are still alive >>>>>>>>>> (either in >>>>>>>>>> the simulation or having awoken from it) remains the same: at 50, >>>>>>>>>> while the >>>>>>>>>> population of physical/biological entities is cut in half each time. >>>>>>>>>> After >>>>>>>>>> another 12 or so trigger pulls the only remaining survivors will be >>>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>>> that were simulated, and all of them now find themselves in a >>>>>>>>>> different >>>>>>>>>> realm. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> If what I said above is the ASSA, then what does the RSSA say >>>>>>>> concerning the above analysis? >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> That is invalid, because there are never a finite number of next >>>>>>> continuations. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> Everett said there is a non-denumerable number of copies, can you not >>>>>> apply relative measure to these? >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> You can... why coudn't you...? What I said, is that Dreb world will >>>>> always be less likely than simple physical explanation for your current >>>>> moment... >>>>> >>>>> It should be , or we all should have met Dreb by now. >>>>> >>>>> >>>> So if you were to spend a day in the box with Schrodinger's cat (each >>>> hour having a 50% chance of poisoning you), what would you predict >>>> experience to be at the end of that day? >>>> >>> >>> If the poison was 100% sure to kill you instantly... I predict (if comp >>> or MWI is true) to be alive and safe. >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>> What would you predict if you knew thought that 1% of your explanations >>>> are Drelb-like entities which want to provide you an afterlife after >>>> simulating your demise? >>>> >>> >>> That I have 99% chance of being in a non Dreb like world. >>> >>> >> After each hour or at the end of the day? If each hour you have a 1% >> chance of going to a Drelb world, then at the end of the day would it be >> ~24%? >> > > I don't know how you count but for me the chance to be in a Dreb world > after 24h is 1%^24 ==> infinitesimal. Each choice are independent... > I took care to say ~24% rather than 24%, because the true way to add those probabilities is (1 - (1 - 1%)^24) = 21.432% After 1,000 iterations you get: (1-(1 - 1%)^1000) = 0.999956 That is, there is a 99.9995% chance you will *not *succeed in passing 1,000 trials in which you have a 99% chance of success in each one, where success is defined as remaining in the physical world. Jason > > > Because if I count like you, as I have 99% chance of not being in a dreb > world every hour... I should have 2376% (2400-24) chance of not being in a > dreb world, doesn't make sense.... > > > Quentin > > >> >> >> Start: 99% physical + 1% Drelb simulations >> After first hour: Objective measure for all states is: >> (49.5% physical surviving + 49.5% physical dying + 0.5% Drelb surviving >> to maintain illusion in physical world + 0.5% Drelb giving you an afterlife >> continuation.) We can ignore the cases where you die as contributing >> anything toward your expectation, so we have: >> 49.5% physically surviving physically, 0.5% surviving in the maintained >> illusion, and 0.5% surviving in Drelb's after life, we renomalize all of >> these to 100%, to get expected subjective continuations, and see: >> 98.01% (surviving physical universe + 0.99% surviving Drelb simulation >> of universe) and 0.99% surviving in afterlife. >> >> It seems after each iteration, there is a 1% chance of ending up there. >> If you repeated this 1,000 times what is the probability you subjectively >> never end up reach the Drelb afterlife state? >> >> Jason >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >> > > > > -- > All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. (Roy > Batty/Rutger Hauer) > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
