2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> > > > > On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:23 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]>wrote: > >> >> >> >> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:13 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]>wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:06 AM, Quentin Anciaux >>>>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 3:25 AM, Quentin Anciaux >>>>>>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 1:48 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 12:59 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Measure is relative, >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Yes, so your current measure of next finding yourself in a Drelb >>>>>>>>>>> continuation, is relatively low compared to the measure of you >>>>>>>>>>> still being >>>>>>>>>>> conscious on Earth. But if you point a quantum gun at your head and >>>>>>>>>>> pull >>>>>>>>>>> the trigger 30 times, your Earth-continuation measure continues to >>>>>>>>>>> fall, it >>>>>>>>>>> is reduced by a factor of a billion. At this point, your Drelb-based >>>>>>>>>>> extensions may become relatively higher than your Earth-based >>>>>>>>>>> extensions, >>>>>>>>>>> and therefore you would be likely to experience a transition to >>>>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>>>> realms of higher measure. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> it doesn't drop while you approach death. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Your measure drops whenever you make yourself more unique, >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> You doesn't, you always have an infinity of continuations. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> In measure theory ( >>>>>>>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measure_(mathematics) ) just because >>>>>>>>> there are an infinite number does not mean they are equal. Your >>>>>>>>> measure >>>>>>>>> each time you pull the trigger in the quantum gun is (approximately) >>>>>>>>> halved. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> No, that is ASSA... >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> especially in those instances where you survive dangerous >>>>>>>>>>> situations (such as falling from a height, or significantly aging). >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Your relative measure doesn't drop, >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Relative to what? Does not one's measure of being alive drop in >>>>>>>>> half with each trigger pull, (relative to your measure of being alive >>>>>>>>> before the trigger pull)? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> but the outcome to explain you're still alive can become more >>>>>>>>>> strange... and drelb based extensions should not become much higher, >>>>>>>>>> simple >>>>>>>>>> physics should still have higher measure to explain your unlikely >>>>>>>>>> survival. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> You are saying we cannot reduce one's measure for surviving in the >>>>>>>>> physical universe to arbitrarily low levels? What would you say your >>>>>>>>> relative measure of being alive in the physical world be after an >>>>>>>>> atomic >>>>>>>>> bomb went off 10 feet from you (relative to before it went off)? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Probabilities add up to one... >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Which probabilities are you referring to here? >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> The probabilities applies only on your continuation, the >>>>>>>>>> partitioning of the infinity of continuations where you're alive are >>>>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>>>> probabilities to find yourself in such continuation or such other, >>>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>>> adds up to one... >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Think of it like this: There are 10,000 explanations for your >>>>>>>>> current experience. 9,950 are various physical and biological >>>>>>>>> instances of >>>>>>>>> you living on Earth, 30 instances are various ancestor simulations >>>>>>>>> run by >>>>>>>>> future humans, 15 are by advanced aliens in other universes, and 5 >>>>>>>>> are by >>>>>>>>> Drelb-like entities. If you shoot yourself in the head with a quantum >>>>>>>>> gun, >>>>>>>>> 4,975 of the 9,950 biological instances are dead, and 25 of the 50 >>>>>>>>> simulated ones awaken from the simulation. You pull the trigger >>>>>>>>> again, and >>>>>>>>> 2488 of the 4975 biological survivors from the first trigger pull are >>>>>>>>> dead, >>>>>>>>> and 13 of the 25 simulated survivors wake up from their simulation. >>>>>>>>> Note >>>>>>>>> that with each trigger pull, the proportion who are still alive >>>>>>>>> (either in >>>>>>>>> the simulation or having awoken from it) remains the same: at 50, >>>>>>>>> while the >>>>>>>>> population of physical/biological entities is cut in half each time. >>>>>>>>> After >>>>>>>>> another 12 or so trigger pulls the only remaining survivors will be >>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>> that were simulated, and all of them now find themselves in a >>>>>>>>> different >>>>>>>>> realm. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> If what I said above is the ASSA, then what does the RSSA say >>>>>>> concerning the above analysis? >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> That is invalid, because there are never a finite number of next >>>>>> continuations. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> Everett said there is a non-denumerable number of copies, can you not >>>>> apply relative measure to these? >>>>> >>>> >>>> You can... why coudn't you...? What I said, is that Dreb world will >>>> always be less likely than simple physical explanation for your current >>>> moment... >>>> >>>> It should be , or we all should have met Dreb by now. >>>> >>>> >>> So if you were to spend a day in the box with Schrodinger's cat (each >>> hour having a 50% chance of poisoning you), what would you predict >>> experience to be at the end of that day? >>> >> >> If the poison was 100% sure to kill you instantly... I predict (if comp >> or MWI is true) to be alive and safe. >> >> >> >>> >>> What would you predict if you knew thought that 1% of your explanations >>> are Drelb-like entities which want to provide you an afterlife after >>> simulating your demise? >>> >> >> That I have 99% chance of being in a non Dreb like world. >> >> > After each hour or at the end of the day? If each hour you have a 1% > chance of going to a Drelb world, then at the end of the day would it be > ~24%? >
I don't know how you count but for me the chance to be in a Dreb world after 24h is 1%^24 ==> infinitesimal. Each choice are independent... Because if I count like you, as I have 99% chance of not being in a dreb world every hour... I should have 2376% (2400-24) chance of not being in a dreb world, doesn't make sense.... Quentin > > > Start: 99% physical + 1% Drelb simulations > After first hour: Objective measure for all states is: > (49.5% physical surviving + 49.5% physical dying + 0.5% Drelb surviving to > maintain illusion in physical world + 0.5% Drelb giving you an afterlife > continuation.) We can ignore the cases where you die as contributing > anything toward your expectation, so we have: > 49.5% physically surviving physically, 0.5% surviving in the maintained > illusion, and 0.5% surviving in Drelb's after life, we renomalize all of > these to 100%, to get expected subjective continuations, and see: > 98.01% (surviving physical universe + 0.99% surviving Drelb simulation of > universe) and 0.99% surviving in afterlife. > > It seems after each iteration, there is a 1% chance of ending up there. If > you repeated this 1,000 times what is the probability you subjectively > never end up reach the Drelb afterlife state? > > Jason > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > -- All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. (Roy Batty/Rutger Hauer) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
