2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> > > > > On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:53 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]>wrote: > >> >> >> >> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:23 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]>wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:13 AM, Quentin Anciaux >>>>> <[email protected]>wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 10:06 AM, Quentin Anciaux <[email protected] >>>>>>> > wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 3:25 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 1:48 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> 2013/12/5 Jason Resch <[email protected]> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 12:59 AM, Quentin Anciaux < >>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Measure is relative, >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Yes, so your current measure of next finding yourself in a >>>>>>>>>>>>> Drelb continuation, is relatively low compared to the measure of >>>>>>>>>>>>> you still >>>>>>>>>>>>> being conscious on Earth. But if you point a quantum gun at your >>>>>>>>>>>>> head and >>>>>>>>>>>>> pull the trigger 30 times, your Earth-continuation measure >>>>>>>>>>>>> continues to >>>>>>>>>>>>> fall, it is reduced by a factor of a billion. At this point, your >>>>>>>>>>>>> Drelb-based extensions may become relatively higher than your >>>>>>>>>>>>> Earth-based >>>>>>>>>>>>> extensions, and therefore you would be likely to experience a >>>>>>>>>>>>> transition to >>>>>>>>>>>>> those realms of higher measure. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> it doesn't drop while you approach death. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Your measure drops whenever you make yourself more unique, >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> You doesn't, you always have an infinity of continuations. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> In measure theory ( >>>>>>>>>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measure_(mathematics) ) just >>>>>>>>>>> because there are an infinite number does not mean they are equal. >>>>>>>>>>> Your >>>>>>>>>>> measure each time you pull the trigger in the quantum gun is >>>>>>>>>>> (approximately) halved. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> No, that is ASSA... >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> especially in those instances where you survive dangerous >>>>>>>>>>>>> situations (such as falling from a height, or significantly >>>>>>>>>>>>> aging). >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Your relative measure doesn't drop, >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Relative to what? Does not one's measure of being alive drop in >>>>>>>>>>> half with each trigger pull, (relative to your measure of being >>>>>>>>>>> alive >>>>>>>>>>> before the trigger pull)? >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> but the outcome to explain you're still alive can become more >>>>>>>>>>>> strange... and drelb based extensions should not become much >>>>>>>>>>>> higher, simple >>>>>>>>>>>> physics should still have higher measure to explain your unlikely >>>>>>>>>>>> survival. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> You are saying we cannot reduce one's measure for surviving in >>>>>>>>>>> the physical universe to arbitrarily low levels? What would you >>>>>>>>>>> say your >>>>>>>>>>> relative measure of being alive in the physical world be after an >>>>>>>>>>> atomic >>>>>>>>>>> bomb went off 10 feet from you (relative to before it went off)? >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Probabilities add up to one... >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Which probabilities are you referring to here? >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> The probabilities applies only on your continuation, the >>>>>>>>>>>> partitioning of the infinity of continuations where you're alive >>>>>>>>>>>> are the >>>>>>>>>>>> probabilities to find yourself in such continuation or such other, >>>>>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>>>>> adds up to one... >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Think of it like this: There are 10,000 explanations for your >>>>>>>>>>> current experience. 9,950 are various physical and biological >>>>>>>>>>> instances of >>>>>>>>>>> you living on Earth, 30 instances are various ancestor simulations >>>>>>>>>>> run by >>>>>>>>>>> future humans, 15 are by advanced aliens in other universes, and 5 >>>>>>>>>>> are by >>>>>>>>>>> Drelb-like entities. If you shoot yourself in the head with a >>>>>>>>>>> quantum gun, >>>>>>>>>>> 4,975 of the 9,950 biological instances are dead, and 25 of the 50 >>>>>>>>>>> simulated ones awaken from the simulation. You pull the trigger >>>>>>>>>>> again, and >>>>>>>>>>> 2488 of the 4975 biological survivors from the first trigger pull >>>>>>>>>>> are dead, >>>>>>>>>>> and 13 of the 25 simulated survivors wake up from their simulation. >>>>>>>>>>> Note >>>>>>>>>>> that with each trigger pull, the proportion who are still alive >>>>>>>>>>> (either in >>>>>>>>>>> the simulation or having awoken from it) remains the same: at 50, >>>>>>>>>>> while the >>>>>>>>>>> population of physical/biological entities is cut in half each >>>>>>>>>>> time. After >>>>>>>>>>> another 12 or so trigger pulls the only remaining survivors will be >>>>>>>>>>> those >>>>>>>>>>> that were simulated, and all of them now find themselves in a >>>>>>>>>>> different >>>>>>>>>>> realm. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> If what I said above is the ASSA, then what does the RSSA say >>>>>>>>> concerning the above analysis? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> That is invalid, because there are never a finite number of next >>>>>>>> continuations. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> Everett said there is a non-denumerable number of copies, can you >>>>>>> not apply relative measure to these? >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> You can... why coudn't you...? What I said, is that Dreb world will >>>>>> always be less likely than simple physical explanation for your current >>>>>> moment... >>>>>> >>>>>> It should be , or we all should have met Dreb by now. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> So if you were to spend a day in the box with Schrodinger's cat (each >>>>> hour having a 50% chance of poisoning you), what would you predict >>>>> experience to be at the end of that day? >>>>> >>>> >>>> If the poison was 100% sure to kill you instantly... I predict (if comp >>>> or MWI is true) to be alive and safe. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> What would you predict if you knew thought that 1% of your >>>>> explanations are Drelb-like entities which want to provide you an >>>>> afterlife >>>>> after simulating your demise? >>>>> >>>> >>>> That I have 99% chance of being in a non Dreb like world. >>>> >>>> >>> After each hour or at the end of the day? If each hour you have a 1% >>> chance of going to a Drelb world, then at the end of the day would it be >>> ~24%? >>> >> >> I don't know how you count but for me the chance to be in a Dreb world >> after 24h is 1%^24 ==> infinitesimal. Each choice are independent... >> > > I took care to say ~24% rather than 24%, because the true way to add those > probabilities is (1 - (1 - 1%)^24) = 21.432% >
As each choices are independant, probabilities are multiplied... so it's 0.01^24. Quentin > > After 1,000 iterations you get: (1-(1 - 1%)^1000) = 0.999956 > > That is, there is a 99.9995% chance you will *not *succeed in passing > 1,000 trials in which you have a 99% chance of success in each one, where > success is defined as remaining in the physical world. > > Jason > > >> >> >> Because if I count like you, as I have 99% chance of not being in a dreb >> world every hour... I should have 2376% (2400-24) chance of not being in a >> dreb world, doesn't make sense.... >> > >> >> Quentin >> >> >>> >>> >>> Start: 99% physical + 1% Drelb simulations >>> After first hour: Objective measure for all states is: >>> (49.5% physical surviving + 49.5% physical dying + 0.5% Drelb surviving >>> to maintain illusion in physical world + 0.5% Drelb giving you an afterlife >>> continuation.) We can ignore the cases where you die as contributing >>> anything toward your expectation, so we have: >>> 49.5% physically surviving physically, 0.5% surviving in the maintained >>> illusion, and 0.5% surviving in Drelb's after life, we renomalize all of >>> these to 100%, to get expected subjective continuations, and see: >>> 98.01% (surviving physical universe + 0.99% surviving Drelb simulation >>> of universe) and 0.99% surviving in afterlife. >>> >>> It seems after each iteration, there is a 1% chance of ending up there. >>> If you repeated this 1,000 times what is the probability you subjectively >>> never end up reach the Drelb afterlife state? >>> >>> Jason >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "Everything List" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >>> >> >> >> >> -- >> All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. (Roy >> Batty/Rutger Hauer) >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > -- All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. (Roy Batty/Rutger Hauer) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
