On 05 Mar 2014, at 18:45, Gabriel Bodeen wrote:
Brent was right but the explanation could use some examples to show
you what's happening. The strangeness that you noticed occurs
because you're looking at cases where the proportion is *exactly* 50%.
binopdf(2,4,0.5)=0.375
binopdf(3,6,0.5)=0.3125
binopdf(4,8,0.5)=0.2374
binopdf(8,16,0.5)=0.1964
binopdf(1000,2000,0.5)=0.0178
binopdf(1e6,2e6,0.5)=0.0006
Instead let's look at cases which are in some range close to 50%.
binocdf(5,8,0.5)-binocdf(3,8,0.5)=0.4922
binocdf(10,16,0.5)-binocdf(6,16,0.5)=0.6677
binocdf(520,1000,0.5)-binocdf(480,1000,0.5)=0.7939
binocdf(1001000,2e6,0.5)-binocdf(999000,2e6,0.5)=0.8427
binocdf(1000050000,2e9,0.5)-binocdf(999950000,2e9,0.5)=0.9747
Basically, as you flip a coin more and more times, you get a growing
number of distinct proportions of heads and tails that can come up,
so any exact proportion becomes less likely. But at the same time,
as you flip the coin more and more times, the distribution of
proportions starts to cluster more and more tightly around the
expected value. So for tests when you do two million flips of a
fair coin, only about 0.06% of the tests come up exactly 50% heads
and 50% tails, but 84.27% of the tests come up between 49.95% and
50.05%.
Good. So you agree with step 3? What about step 4? (*). I am
interested to know.
the FPI is just the elementary statistics of the "bernouilly
épreuve" (in french statistics), and that is pretty obvious when you
grasp the definitions given of 1p and 3p.
Bruno
(*) http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/publications/SANE2004MARCHALAbstract.html
-Gabe
On Monday, March 3, 2014 1:36:11 AM UTC-6, chris peck wrote:
>> If you repeated the cloning experiment from Figure 8.3 many
times and wrote down your room number each time, you'd in almost all
cases find that the sequence of zeros and ones you'd written looked
random, with zeros occurring about 50% of the time.
There's something strikes me as very strange about this idea.
Tegmark's method is just a means of writing down binary sequences.
Being strict, already with binary sequences just 4 digits long, only
37.5% of those contain half zeros. This drops the longer the
sequences get. So, with sequences 6 digits long, only 31.25% contain
half zeros. With sequences 8 digits long only 27% and with 16 digits
only about 19%.
If his experiment continued for a year, (365 digits) many people
would find that either room 1 or room 0 was dominating strongly. For
these people a change in room would seem very odd, a glitch in the
matrix that wouldn't be of any great concern vis a vis prediction
once 'normality' kicked back in the following night. For others, a
change in room would occur at regular intervals and would seem very
predictable. There would be the guy who changed room every night.
There would be all the guys whose room changed every night except
for the one time when it stayed the same. A little glitch is all.
In truth, the longer you continued the game and the more people got
involved the less chance a person would have of finding room
assignment random at all. There would be increasingly few people
willing to bet 50/50 on a particular room assignment.
Date: Sun, 2 Mar 2014 17:13:23 +1300
Subject: Re: Tegmark and UDA step 3
From: liz...@gmail.com
To: everyth...@googlegroups.com
"Hello, dear, looking for a bit of multi-sense realism?"
On 2 March 2014 16:35, <ghi...@gmail.com> wrote:
heh heh heh I love this place. It's like walking through an
eccentric street market where traders call out their wares
"GETCHYOUR P-TIME 2 for 1 logico-computational really real
structure today only"
"Assuming comp only, that's right comp only. Theology but done like
science. Madam you are ugly but I will be sober in the morning. You
there, you reek of not-comp, get lost. Ah sir, did you like the
dreams? Same again?"
"GETCHOR P-TIME..,."
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