Re: [geo] Re: [CDR] Re: [HCA-list] Iron Salt Aerosol: Article in MIT Technology Review

[Andrew Revkin]

is no more controversial than ocean iron
>> fertilization, given that both are under a de facto ban on field research.
>>
>>
>>
>> The article comments that “if it brightened marine clouds, it would
>> likely draw greater scrutiny given the sensitivity around geoengineering
>> approaches that aim to achieve cooling by reflecting away sunlight.”  It
>> may prove to be the case that ISA could only be deployed by an
>> intergovernmental planetary cooling agreement of the scale of the Bretton
>> Woods Agreement of 1944 to establish the IMF and World Bank.  In that
>> governance scenario, the scrutiny placed on all cooling technologies will
>> be intense regardless of the balance of effects between brightening and
>> greenhouse gas removal.
>>
>>
>>
>> I disagree with the scientists quoted in the article who oppose field
>> tests. That is a dangerous and complacent attitude, failing to give due
>> weight to the risks of sudden tipping points that can only be prevented by
>> albedo enhancement and GHG removal at scale.  Learning by doing is the most
>> safe and effective strategy.  If there are unexpected effects it is easy to
>> stop the trials.  The only risk of well governed field tests is that they
>> would provide information to justify a slower transition from fossil
>> fuels.  On balance that is not a serious risk, given that emissions are
>> expected to continue regardless of climate concerns.  Cooling technologies
>> are essential to balance the ongoing heating, the sooner the better.
>>
>>
>>
>> I was pleased that the article included my comment that our company
>> decided not to pursue our ISA field test proposal because the overall
>> political governance framework is not ready to support this form of
>> geoengineering.  This illustrates that strategic discussion of ethics and
>> governance will need to be far more advanced before any geoengineering
>> deployment is possible. I explored these moral themes in a recent discussion
>> note
>> <https://pdfhost.io/v/nn85Rgk.g_Moral_Perspectives_on_Climate_Policy>
>> published by the Healthy Planet Action Coalition.
>>
>>
>>
>> Robert Tulip
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[geo] Fwd: [preview] Yes, nuclear winter is back and more unnerving than ever. Please pass this along.

[Andrew Revkin]

New piece on atmospheric/climate impacts should Putin unleash a limited
nuclear attack. Includes MacCracken caveats, Paul Ehrlich, Alan Robock,
Brian Toon and much more.

Please weigh in here or in the post comment thread (the latter helps
elevate the piece out there in Google search etc.)

https://revkin.bulletin.com/as-putin-s-nuclear-brinkmanship-continues-nuclear-winter-risk-rises




Putin's Ukraine Escalation Prompts Fresh Urgency on "Nuclear Winter" and
U.S. Nuclear Posture
<https://www.facebook.com/bulletin_community_platforms/notif/link/?ndid=Y0YMTY0NjQyNDQzMzg1MzI4NzpjbzBkcWlhMHhvaGxjNWphbzNjdHltZWo1OWF3cnZyNXR3Ymc3NDR3a2JpbDcxZHNiZ0BkZXZudWxsLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbToxNjg5Mg=https%3A%2F%2Frevkin.bulletin.com%2Fas-putin-s-nuclear-brinkmanship-continues-nuclear-winter-risk-rises%2F%3Fsource%3Demail_type=voices_article_preview_type=cta_to_article=email>

In the Cold War, scientists found fires from a nuclear war could loft so
much smoke high into the rainless stratosphere that solar dimming could
spawn famine. Lately, the science has strengthened.


Andrew Revkin
Mar 04


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*
*.*
Phrase of the week - "deconfliction hotline"

As Vladimir Putin's horrific war on Ukraine intensifies, there have been
flashes of what counts as good news these days.

Late in the week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon and
Russian counterparts established a *
<https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-03/card/u-s-russia-establish-hotline-to-avoid-accidental-conflict-hPUjy4NlEcA2SE6kCwHO>
<https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-03/card/u-s-russia-establish-hotline-to-avoid-accidental-conflict-hPUjy4NlEcA2SE6kCwHO>"deconfliction
hotlin
<https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-03/card/u-s-russia-establish-hotline-to-avoid-accidental-conflict-hPUjy4NlEcA2SE6kCwHO>*econfliction
hotline," a communication portal, also used around the Syrian conflict,
aimed at avoiding spiraling missteps. Such circuit breakers are an
essential way to limit odds of accidental escalation - one of the *three
flavors of war escalation
<https://revkin.bulletin.com/the-putin-nuclear-threat-cant-be-ignored>* I
wrote about earlier this week.

And the fire reported at the largest nuclear power plant
<https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/top-wrap-1-europes-largest-nuclear-power-plant-fire-after-russian-attack-mayor-2022-03-04/>
in Europe was actually at a training facility outside the plant perimeter,
not that this reduces deep concern about Russia's capacity to unleash holy
hell in its messy surge into a country with 15 power-plant nuclear reactors
and the wreckage of Chernobyl. (Follow *James Acton
<https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/434>* of the nuclear program at
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for more and read his piece on
Ukraine's nuclear status
<https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/02/24/most-immediate-nuclear-danger-in-ukraine-isn-t-chernobyl-pub-86521>
.)

President Joe Biden is *
<https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/the-ukraine-invasion-highlights-why-bidens-nuclear-posture-review-should-endorse-bold-new-vision-for-nuclear-security/>poised
to update the United States N
<https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/the-ukraine-invasion-highlights-why-bidens-nuclear-posture-review-should-endorse-bold-new-vision-for-nuclear-security/>*uclear
Posture Review. I hope Putin's aggression doesn't sway the administration
to give up on some of Biden's earlier pledges to focus on deterrence and
arms reduction. But with the midterms and 2024 in mind, I wouldn't count on
this. And history has shown how difficult it is for any president to
counter the pull of politics and path dependency and the self-sustaining
power of the military-industrial complex. See the readings below for some
invaluable guidance.
Nuclear winter is back

The prime focus worldwide has to be on finding ways to counter or slow
Putin's unprovoked Ukraine invasion and help the millions of Ukrainians
whose lives are imperiled or up-ended.

And it's equally vital to support those in Russia courageously protesting
against this war crime. (I hope science organizations are trying to protect
Oleg Anisimov, who was threatened with "oblivion"
<https://twitter.com/Revkin/status/1498300847138217984> by a Putin crony
after he spoke against the invasion at last weekend's meeting approving the
latest United Nations climate report
<https://revkin.bulletin.com/un-climate-panel-says-nations-must-boost-resilience-even-as-they-cut-heating-gases>
.)
Twitter
See @Revkin's post on Twitter.
twitter.com/Revkin
<https://twitter.com/Revkin/status/1498294386869907458>

But given Putin's evident disregard for any outside influence (at least so
f

[geo] Fwd: As Western Pressure Builds, Putin's Nuclear Threat is Easy to Overplay or Write Off, But Can't be Ig...

[Andrew Revkin]

Dear all,

I've got Alan Robock, Brian Toon, Paul and Anne Ehrlich coming on my
Sustain What webcast tomorrow - *March 3 - at 1pm Eastern* to talk about
the new nuclear war threat in the context of nuclear winter science. *Putin’s
Nuclear Threat – Global Implications and Options*
https://www.earth.columbia.edu/videos/view/putin-s-nuclear-threat-global-implications-and-options

Here's the related story:



Thirty-seven years after I first wrote about the global threat of a
"nuclear winter" triggered by a nuclear war, I can't believe I have to
revisit this. But such is the nature of these times.

Sustain What
<https://www.facebook.com/bulletin_community_platforms/notif/link/?ndid=Y0YMTY0NjI2NTI4NjY1MjkwMDp6OGNldXdwZm9iOW1peHFvZ3lkb2V4djJ2a2l4OWJweWh6YzJ4eHBrdDFwYTViMGV3eEBkZXZudWxsLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbToxMzA4MQ=https%3A%2F%2Frevkin.bulletin.com%2F%3Fsource%3Demail_type=voices_publish_type=cta_to_publication=email>

*I would love your help expanding the Sustain What community, particularly
to students and educators. Here's **the page to send around
<http://j.mp/revkinbulletin>**.* (My dispatches will always be free so
those who need information the most can get it.)


As Western Pressure Builds, Putin's Nuclear Threat is Easy to Overplay or
Write Off, But Can't be Ignored
<https://www.facebook.com/bulletin_community_platforms/notif/link/?ndid=Y0YMTY0NjI2NTI4NjY1MjkwMDp6OGNldXdwZm9iOW1peHFvZ3lkb2V4djJ2a2l4OWJweWh6YzJ4eHBrdDFwYTViMGV3eEBkZXZudWxsLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbToxMzA4MQ=https%3A%2F%2Frevkin.bulletin.com%2Fthe-putin-nuclear-threat-cant-be-ignored%2F%3Fsource%3Demail_type=voices_publish_type=cta_to_article=email>

Thirty-seven years after I first wrote about the global threat of a
"nuclear winter" triggered by a nuclear war, I can't believe I have to
revisit this. But such is the nature of these times.


Andrew Revkin
Mar 02


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.
Join my live Sustain What session Thursday May 3, 1 p.m. U.S. E.T.: *Putin’s
Nuclear Threat – Global Implications and Options
<https://www.earth.columbia.edu/videos/view/putin-s-nuclear-threat-global-implications-and-options>*

Students in Brooklyn in a "take cover" drill in 1962 (Library of Congress)

I want to hear from you, especially those, like me, who grew up when
elementary school kids streamed into basements as six bells rang (at least
that's the bell count I vaguely recall, distinct from fire drills). And I'd
like to hear from those who've grown up facing pandemics and recessions and
Capitol insurrections but not the prospect of nuclear war.

What is your sense of this moment as the world rises in opposition to
Vladimir Putin's relentless escalation of his atrocities in Ukraine?

Have you, like me, paused to think about the implications if this invasion
cascades outward into a wider ground war in Europe, or if Putin, cut off
from reality and seeing his domestic power base potentially weaken, makes
good on his ratcheting nuclear threat?

I should be writing today about the steps taken in a United Nations meeting
in Nairobi toward a global accord limiting plastic pollution
<https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/biggest-green-deal-since-paris-un-approve-plastic-treaty-roadmap-2022-03-02/>,
or about deeper details of this week's big report on climate change impacts
and adaptation
<https://theconversation.com/ipcc-report-how-politics-not-climate-change-is-responsible-for-disasters-and-conflict-178071>
options.

But instead I'm taking a step back to reflect on nuclear peril - the
ultimate example of humanity's tendency to be "a technical giant and an
ethical child,
<https://revkin.medium.com/when-data-and-values-met-at-the-vatican-cf35e6f99153>"
as a cardinal proposed during a Vatican conference on sustainability in
2014.

As a host of geopolitical and military analysts have been writing and
tweeting, the prospect remains remote that Putin will step beyond deploying
Russia's forbidding arsenal of conventional weapons to a nuclear assault.

But the odds are not zero. Keep in mind there are many options for him,
weapon-wise, beyond ballistic salvos, as Heritage Foundation researchers
Peter Brooks and Patty-Jane Geller wrote last month in a Daily Signal
article titled "Russia’s Small Nukes Are a Big Problem
<https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/02/01/russias-small-nukes-are-a-big-problem/>."
Several thousand "tactical" nuclear weapons are at hand. And keep in mind
that war comes with chaos, and that means mistakes.

The problem of course is that such weapons implicitly cross a line
uncrossed in three generations. As former Secretary of Defense James Mattis
<https://www.cohengroup.net/our-people/james-mattis> told Congress in 2018
<https://www.military.com/defensetech/2018/02/06/matt

Re: [geo] IPCC AR6 WG2 - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

[Andrew Revkin]

Oddly there's a section on SRM in the summary for policymakers - I would
have assumed that would belog in the Working Group 3 report Here's my
take:

https://revkin.bulletin.com/un-climate-panel-says-nations-must-boost-resilience-even-as-they-cut-heating-gases

Geoengineering - The report includes a short critique of climate
engineering, specifically proposals that would artificially add aerosols to
the atmosphere to reflect some sunlight back to space, offsetting some
warming. There's been a rising tide of opposition to "solar radiation
management," most notably a recent call by hundreds of scientists for an
international "non-use agreement."
<https://l.bulletin.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.solargeoeng.org%2F=AT1xjPZlAkGoq9GQT3v6kRdWkQ4a6JCnV0-NaLyq_DMSLfSEPaaO6fvEPD0avQ0gqBqLZH7P6NjavnblL4TpE2BuZcoHx_bdCfkFawrMaC7Dd1PcmYPL-Sa0skR55SD_jIlrKvUCaA>

I'm not sure why this form of geoengineering made it into the adaptation
report. Blocking sunlight is a form of warming mitigation and any
assessment really belongs in next month's report on policies for slowing
warming. Here are points the adaptation-report authors describe as having
high confidence:

Solar radiation modification approaches, if they were to be implemented,
introduce a widespread range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which
are not well understood. Solar radiation modification approaches have
potential to offset warming and ameliorate some climate hazards, but
substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur
at regional scales and seasonal timescales. Large uncertainties and
knowledge gaps are associated with the potential of solar radiation
modification approaches to reduce climate change risks. Solar radiation
modification would not stop atmospheric CO2 concentrations from increasing
or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued anthropogenic
emissions.

For what it's worth, I predict a non-use agreement on solar radiation
management will never happen. But if it did it would indirectly chill
important research on aerosols' climate impacts in the atmosphere, just as
a push to stop rogue iron-seeding tests in the ocean killed support for
more careful scientific research on the matter. A decade was lost, although new
efforts are planned
<https://www.science.org/content/article/draw-down-carbon-and-cool-planet-ocean-fertilization-gets-another-look>
.

On Mon, Feb 28, 2022 at 10:28 AM Renaud de RICHTER <
renaud.derich...@gmail.com> wrote:

> https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
> The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
> assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems,
> biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also
> reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world
> and human societies to adapt to climate change.
> Full report (about 3700 pages)
> https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf
>
> Technical summary (about 100 p)
>
> https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_TechnicalSummary.pdf
>
> Summary for Policymakers (about 40 p)
> https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
>
>
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> .
>


-- 
*ANDREW REVKIN*
*Founding Director, Initiative on Communication & Sustainability*
*Columbia University Climate School*
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Re: [geo] Senior scholars?

[Andrew Revkin]

> email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit
> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/033601d80f3d%241ef64f70%245ce2ee50%24%40yahoo.com.au
> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/033601d80f3d%241ef64f70%245ce2ee50%24%40yahoo.com.au?utm_medium=email_source=footer>
> .
>
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> .
>


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*ANDREW REVKIN*
*Founding Director, Initiative on Communication & Sustainability*
*Columbia University Climate School*
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Re: [geo] Al Gore: climate engineering research reckless and wack-a-doodle

[Andrew Revkin]

Yes, keep in mind it took Al Gore nearly 20 years to accept that climate
*adaptation* was not a "form of laziness" (as he wrote in 1992) and has to
be pursued as vigorously as CO2 mitigation.
Wrote on this in Nat Geo: http://j.mp/adaptationrises

Not surprised it will take longer for him to be more nuanced on SRM - at
least on examining it carefully.


On Mon, Jun 29, 2020 at 12:03 PM E Durbrow  wrote:

> So there is a TED interview with Al Gore. His response (rant?) on climate
> engineering (he seems to mean SRM but also marine climate interventions)
> begins at minute 27. But do keep listening to the interview for the next
> 10min. The interview, Chris Anderson, pushes back and tries to see if Gore
> has a more nuanced view on climate engineering. He doesn’t. Note: he
> doesn't approve of even research.
>
>
> https://www.ted.com/talks/al_gore_the_case_for_optimism_on_climate_change/transcript
>
> Me: The interviewer seems to me more rational about climate intervention
> than his interviewee. He calls for an adult conversation after Gore's rant.
>
> --
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> .
>


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*ANDREW REVKIN*
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Re: [geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon”

[Andrew Revkin]

If we stop the energy imbalance, oceans can also go a long way toward
spreading that existing heat burden over time, as per this Rosenthal,
Linsley, Oppo work:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6158/617

https://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/1-year-study-finds-oceans-warming-fast-but-from-a-cool-baseline/

On Fri, Sep 13, 2019 at 8:16 AM Klaus Lackner  wrote:

> If by warming you mean an increase in the temperature, then warming will
> stop soon.  If by warming you mean that it is warmer than without excess
> Greenhouse gases, then this excess temperature will be with us a long
> time.  Solomon et al claimed it is 1000 years.
>
> Klaus
>
>
>
>
>
> *From: * on behalf of E Durbrow <
> durb...@gmail.com>
> *Reply-To: *"durb...@gmail.com" 
> *Date: *Friday, September 13, 2019 at 5:09 PM
> *To: *"geoengineering@googlegroups.com" 
> *Subject: *[geo] No fossil fuels = global warming stops “soon”
>
>
>
> Alan Robock wrote: "Certainly if we stop burning fossil fuels, global
> warming will not stop immediately, but it will stop soon. “
>
>
>
> As a layperson, my understanding is that even if fossil fuels burning
> stops tomorrow, warming and acidification will continue for decades rather
> than years. This is because of 2 centuries of greenhouse gas build-up (and
> greenhouse contributions from agriculture).
>
>
>
> Would some kind soul tell me that I’m wrong here?
>
>
>
> Thanks!
>
>
>
> --
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> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__groups.google.com_d_msgid_geoengineering_CAFxkD2qeQ-252BvxJBMNkqqS7heO-2D8EjaH8OvPaJZC532K8TCw12qw-2540mail.gmail.com-3Futm-5Fmedium-3Demail-26utm-5Fsource-3Dfooter=DwMFaQ=l45AxH-kUV29SRQusp9vYR0n1GycN4_2jInuKy6zbqQ=hFjA8A8KwwhQx5qilpfIleTL0XYVr_fckT8DnwIEWlQ=283VuYyS0Fv76OSFAT5br_V5oo3ALL3bD_tuP2IH0d0=JbtWshirTPWzP32RWMjN8dIXKtEyHwnQU7kzaIzFI88=>
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Re: [geo] My CNN geoengineering question to Sen. Cory Booker

[Andrew Revkin]

this event will provide a valuable public service by
> increasing public knowledge on key climate change issues and also bringing
> together scientists from all perspectives to facilitate greater future
> cooperation and scientific advancement.
>
>
>
> Regards,
>
>
>
> Frank Lasée
>
> President
>
> The Heartland Institute
>
>
>
> *EMAIL SENT BY:*
>
> Jim Lakely
>
> Director of Communications
>
> The Heartland Institute
>
> 3939 North Wilke Road
>
> Arlington Heights, IL 60004
>
> o: 312-377-4000
>
> f: 312-277-4122
>
> c: 312-731-9364
>
>
>
> --
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> .
>


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Re: [CDR] Re: [geo] A Critical Examination of Geoengineering. Economic and Technological Rationality in Social Context

[Andrew Revkin]

On Peter's wise input, one other thought.

In ecosystems, there's some evidence that a lack of true "organization" -
meaning coordination, consistency - appears to be a source of resilience.
As Thomas Elmqvist captured as "response diversity"

in a remarkable 2003 paper. I cited it a couple of times in the context of
intense deep divisions over climate change solutions (sift to Elmqvist
mention here

).

Applied to human systems, the notion would be that our variegated responses
to environmental stresses - both at individual (
http://culturalcognition.net ) and societal levels (the difference
between China's
climate/energy planning and ours and Europe's etc.
)
- are adaptive in the best evolutionary sense. (There's only been one peer
reviewed paper
assessing
the social-resilience equivalent so far.)

The result looks disorderly and is full of tensions, but it's totally human
and got us through our mess.. so far..  The alternative - coordinated
planetary 'management' - feels necessary but seems implicitly un-human.


Of course we are entering what feels like uncharted terrain given how much
our environmental potency is outstripping our capacity to understand its
implications on time scales we're not set up to consider fully.. But that's
also the human way, it seems. .



On Mon, Jan 22, 2018 at 1:55 AM, Charles Greene  wrote:

> Thank you for your insightful and thought-provoking comments Peter about
> the evolution of human organizations.
>
> On Jan 21, 2018, at 1:12 AM, Peter Eisenberger <
> peter.eisenber...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> For what it is worth here is my 2 cts
>
> History is clear that human organizations have evolved much like other
> living systems. That evolution has had a consistent direction -increased
> social organziations covering ever larger populations.(eg hunter gatherer
> groups, villages
> cities , city states , nation states ) . This occurred because it made us
> more fit - face the cahllenges of the time.   The climate change issue is
> amongst other things a recognition of the global impact of our collective
> impacts and that no nation state can provide on their own a solution to the
> challenges we face. Thus there will be over time an inevitable
> globalization of our human systems. Looking back a previous organizations
> with disdain rather than part of our evolutionary history makes no logical
> sense but ignoring the need to change and that change will provide a better
> future is equally misguided .
>
> In my view human knowledge will provide technology to address the
> challenges we face and we will reorganize ourselves over time to be able to
> implement them effectively just as we have in the past reorgnized ourselves
> to address the challenges we faced.
> My view is that this evolutionary path is inevitable because it will make
> us more fit but what is not inevitable , as is the casse in the rest of
> nature , is how much destruction will occur before we change . That in my
> opinion in the challenge to all of us and I truly hope we are up to it.
>
> Finally to be clear whether that global organziation evolves into large
> global  bureaucracies or that stage is a transient organiztion giving way
> to a technology enabled cloud connected bottom up organizations is yet to
> be determined.
>
> On Sun, Jan 21, 2018 at 1:27 AM, Andrew Lockley 
> wrote:
>
>> Thanks for the support, but I don't fully agree with the reasoning. I've
>> encountered this thinking a great deal in the environmental movement, and
>> it's not motivated by publication incentives.
>>
>> There's a category of people, often found cosseted inside institutions of
>> various kinds, for whom "more government" is the answer to absolutely
>> everything. This approach is often mocked as "watermelon politics" - red
>> through and through, with a thin layer of green on the outside.
>>
>> Unfortunately, such people find it disproportionately easy to progress in
>> institutions of great intellectual influence: academia, state media, public
>> services, and government. This is despite the fact that their life
>> experiences and values run counter to the undeniable realities lived by the
>> vast majority of the population, who typically view the state as
>> inefficient, bordering on Kafkaesque (hence the author's popularity).
>>
>> A
>>
>> On 21 Jan 2018 01:13, "Peter Flynn"  wrote:
>>
>>> Andrew,
>>>
>>>
>>> Thank you for saying this, and saying it very well. I think that the
>>> abstract is just nonsense: claptrap, as you say. I 

Re: [geo] Help: What do we know and what don't we know about solar geoengineering?

[Andrew Revkin]

Only thing I'd add to Klaus's nice summary is this:

We don't know of a model for decision-making on a global intervention on
any other issue yet that can apply neatly to this kind of action.

- CFC/ozone diplomacy was about mitigating something, not adding something.

- Nuclear test ban same.

So the question isn't just "who decides." It's also who decides how to
decide.

- Andy



[image: --]

Andrew Revkin
[image: https://]about.me/revkin
<https://about.me/revkin?promo=email_sig_source=product_medium=email_sig_campaign=chrome_ext>


On Wed, Jul 19, 2017 at 10:47 AM, Ken Caldeira <
kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> wrote:

> Folks,
>
> This Sunday evening, I am supposed to help kick off a discussion about
> what we know and what we don't know about solar geoengineering.
>
> https://www.grc.org/programs.aspx?id=17348
>
> It would be helpful if some people on this group could attempt to answer
> these questions:
>
> *1. What are the most important things we know about solar geoengineering?*
>
> *2. What are the most important things we don't know about solar
> geoengineering?*
>
> I would appreciate it if you could put your answers in the form of bullet
> points and not write essays. It would also help if you could cite a key
> relevant paper or two.
>
> Thanks,
> Ken
>
>
> *Ken Caldeira*
> *Carnegie Institution for Science*
> Dept of Global Ecology
> 260 Panama St
> Stanford CA 94305 USA
> +1 650 704 7212 <(650)%20704-7212>
> http://CarnegieEnergyInnovation.org
> http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab
> <http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab>
>
> Assistant, with access to incoming emails: Jess Barker
> jbar...@carnegiescience.edu
>
>
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>



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Re: [geo] Open-Access Review paper: Gas Hydrate Breakdown Unlikely to Cause Massive Greenhouse Gas Release

[Andrew Revkin]

But isn't the prime question - at least the one driving most discussions of
"emergency" actions up north - catastrophic release?

Pretty clear this review damps down that concern, along with the papers
last year pointing to post-2010 methane concentration rise being mainly
tropical/biogenic.

e.g.>
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/why-atmospheric-methane-surging-hint-its-not-fracking



On Sun, Feb 12, 2017 at 10:11 AM, Hawkins, Dave  wrote:

> Th bigger risk for it reaching the atmosphere would be from producing it
> commercially.  Congress has directed our DOE to come up with a plan to do
> exactly that.
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
> On Feb 12, 2017, at 9:34 AM, Ken Caldeira 
> wrote:
>
> https://www.usgs.gov/news/gas-hydrate-breakdown-unlikely-
> cause-massive-greenhouse-gas-release
> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000534/full
> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000534/pdf
>
> [image: Reviews of Geophysics]
> 
>
> Review Article The interaction of climate change and methane hydrates
> Carolyn D. Ruppel, John D. Kessler
> Abstract
>
> Gas hydrate, a frozen, naturally-occurring, and highly-concentrated form
> of methane, sequesters significant carbon in the global system and is
> stable only over a range of low-temperature and moderate-pressure
> conditions. Gas hydrate is widespread in the sediments of marine
> continental margins and permafrost areas, locations where ocean and
> atmospheric warming may perturb the hydrate stability field and lead to
> release of the sequestered methane into the overlying sediments and soils.
> Methane and methane-derived carbon that escape from sediments and soils and
> reach the atmosphere could exacerbate greenhouse warming. The synergy
> between warming climate and gas hydrate dissociation feeds a popular
> perception that global warming could drive catastrophic methane releases
> from the contemporary gas hydrate reservoir. Appropriate evaluation of the
> two sides of the climate-methane hydrate synergy requires assessing direct
> and indirect observational data related to gas hydrate dissociation
> phenomena and numerical models that track the interaction of gas
> hydrates/methane with the ocean and/or atmosphere. Methane hydrate is
> likely undergoing dissociation now on global upper continental slopes and
> on continental shelves that ring the Arctic Ocean. Many factors—the depth
> of the gas hydrates in sediments, strong sediment and water column sinks,
> and the inability of bubbles emitted at the seafloor to deliver methane to
> the sea-air interface in most cases—mitigate the impact of gas hydrate
> dissociation on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations though. There is
> no conclusive proof that hydrate-derived methane is reaching the atmosphere
> now, but more observational data and improved numerical models will better
> characterize the climate-hydrate synergy in the future.
>
> Ken Caldeira
> Carnegie Institution for Science
> Dept of Global Ecology
> 260 Panama St
> Stanford CA 94305 USA
> +1 650 704 7212 <(650)%20704-7212>
> http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab
> 
>
> Assistant, with access to incoming emails: Jess Barker
> jbar...@carnegiescience.edu
>
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Re: [geo] Nordhaus: Devastating global warming is inevitable

[Andrew Revkin]

The most important thing about Nordhaus's paper and conclusions, which
I focused
on in a recent Trump piece
,
is that he once held fast to the same assumptions Mann's hanging on to.
He's demonstrated a capacity to follow the data.

Greg's point at the end is key. Still no evidence that climate change will
have the kinds of motivational dimensions that drove the response to Nazi
Germany and Pearl Harbor.

Some of my exploration of the full scope of the climate challenge in my Issues
in Science & Technology essay  early last
year are relevant.

On Fri, Jan 13, 2017 at 1:44 PM, Greg Rau  wrote:

>
> http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/deadly-global-
> warming-is-inevitable-due-to-inaction-feasible-rhetoric-
> climate-change-fight-paris-a752.html
>
>
> Nordhaus - “The international target for climate change with a limit of 2C
> appears to be infeasible with reasonably accessible technologies.
>
> “And this is the case even with very stringent and unrealistically
> ambitious abatement strategies.
>
> “This is so because of the inertia of the climate system, of rapid
> projected economic growth in the near term, and of revisions in several
> elements of the model.
>
> “A target of 2.5C is technically feasible but would require extreme
> virtually universal global policy measures.”
>
> On the other hand,
>
> Michael Man - “I think it is an overstatement to say (as Nordhaus does in
> the abstract) that ‘it will be extremely difficult to achieve the 2C target
> of international agreements even if ambitious policies are introduced in
> the near term’.
>
> “The Paris Agreement has put us on a pathway that can get us there given a
> ratcheting up of the commitments already made by the nations of the word.
>
> “Physics isn't an obstacle, only willpower is, at this point. I'm wary of
> economists’ assumptions about our willpower to take dramatic actions when
> necessary.
>
> “A similar argument to Nordhaus might have been used to argue we couldn't
> possibly mount the mobilisation necessary to win World War II. But we did.
>
> “We've risen to the challenge before, and we can do so here.”
>
> GR -  We could, but climate change seems a way more abstract threat to
> most humans relative to the immediate military threats that were then posed
> by Germany and Japan. Can humans trust scientific predictions and then act
> to protect future generations rather than just focussing on more immediate
> concerns?
>
>
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[geo] the political context on clarifying social cost of carbon

[Andrew Revkin]

Seeing the helpful discussion emerge on the new National Academies report
on ways to improve the "social cost of carbon" estimates, thought you'd
appreciate my piece on the political context, which is essential to
consider given that key aspects of the final determination of such metrics
is implicitly a function of values/politics/ethics more than data. Some
excellent input from Myles Allen and Gernot Wagner...

Here's the link and an excerpt (several links to relevant papers are at the
bottom as well):


https://www.propublica.org/article/will-trumps-climate-team-accept-any-social-cost-of-carbon

President-elect Donald Trump and members of his proposed cabinet and
transition team have taken aim at many of President Obama’s climate and
clean-energy policies, programs and legacies — from the Paris Agreement to
the Clean Power Plan.

But there’s probably no more consequential and contentious a target for the
incoming administration than an arcane metric called the “social cost of
carbon.”

This value is the government’s best estimate of how much society gains over
the long haul by cutting each ton of the heat-trapping carbon-dioxide
emissions scientists have linked to global warming.

Currently set at $36 per ton of carbon dioxide
, the metric is
produced using a complex, and contentious, set of models estimating a host
of future costs to society related to rising temperatures and seas, then
using a longstanding economic tool, a discount rate, to gauge how much it
is worth today to limit those harms generations hence. (For context, the
United States emitted about 5.1 billion tons of CO2 in 2015
, out of a
global total of 36 billion.)

The contention arises because the social cost of carbon underpins
justifications for policies dealing with everything from power plants to
car mileage to refrigerator efficiency. The carbon valuation has already
helped shape 79 regulations .

The strongest sign of a coming challenge to the social cost calculation
came in a post-election memorandum

from
Thomas Pyle, who was then president of the industry-funded American Energy
Alliance and Institute for Energy Research and who now leads the Trump
transition team for the Department of Energy. In the memo, he predicted
policies resulting in “ending the use of the social cost of carbon in
federal rule makings.”

Outright elimination of such a calculation is highly unlikely, according to
interviews with a range of experts. The practice of estimating the economic
costs and benefits of most government regulations began under an executive
order of President Ronald Reagan

in
1981. It has continued ever since. Climate-related regulations are no
different. Several court rulings have affirmed the process
.

But the Trump administration’s aim of lowering the operative “number,”
possibly by a lot, is almost assured. In 2013, an economist from Pyle’s
energy institute testified

in
a Senate hearing that under a proper calculation, the social cost of carbon
“would probably be close to zero, or possibly even negative.”

A deep cut would be both dangerous and unjustified, given the basics of
both climate science and economics, said Gernot Wagner, a Harvard economist
focused on climate risk and policy. In a phone interview on Tuesday, he
said the interagency working group assembled by the White House in 2009 to
create the social cost measurement was “a damn impressive exercise at
assembling a lot of firepower and done in a way that was about as
apolitical as things can go in Washington.”

The result, he said, is, if anything, far too conservative. “What worries
me most, frankly, is that the current social cost is basically being
portrayed as the upper limit,” he said.

In fact, he and several other climate-focused economists said in interviews
that the science, including persistent uncertainty on how fast temperatures
and seas will rise, should result in a higher carbon cost and even more
aggressive steps at limiting warming.

At the same time, he and other analysts agreed that there are issues with
the way calculations have been done so far, reflected in a flood of comments

received
by the Office of Management and Budget in 2015.

A fresh independent assessment of ways to improve the 

[geo] NASA's role in gauging environmental change

[Andrew Revkin]

This seems highly relevant to GEO-ENG discussion because it explores
arguments that NASA is not the right agency to do Earth science.

I couldn't fit it in, but studies of Mount Pinatubo cooling were largely
NASA and important in refining climate models (and relevant here).

https://www.propublica.org/article/will-trump-scrap-nasas-climate-research-mission

Here's an excerpt:

Trump’s most visible advisor on space policy has been Bob Walker, a
former House
Science committee chairman
<https://www.aip.org/fyi/1995/house-science-committee-chairman-robert-walker>who
is now a space-policy lobbyist <http://wexlerwalker.com/our-team/>pressing
to move “Earth-centric
<http://spacenews.com/trump-advisor-sees-pence-playing-a-major-role-in-space-policy/>”
and “heavily politicized
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/nasa-earth-donald-trump-eliminate-climate-change-research>”
climate science out of NASA altogether. And Christopher Shank, who was
chosen by Trump to lead the transition at NASA, is a seasoned strategist
who has expressed strong skepticism
<http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-denier-nasa-transition-20938> about
the severity of global warming.

Should Trump come to take a dim view of NASA’s research on climate change,
he’s likely to have no shortage of support in Congress. The last few years
have seen intensifying moves against the Obama administration’s investments
in climate science in hearings led by the Texas Republicans Sen. Ted Cruz
<http://spacenews.com/senators-bolden-clash-over-the-core-mission-of-nasa/> and
Rep. Lamar S. Smith, whose views on NASA and climate parallel those of
Walker — built around the notion that NASA needs to focus on outer space,
not back on Earth.

As Smith put it in 2015, “There are 13 other agencies involved in climate
change research, but only one that is responsible for space exploration."

NASA’s Earth Science division, if less well known to the public, has
regularly seen its budget fluctuate with turnover in the White House. Under
Ronald Reagan, there were substantial investments
<http://spacenews.com/senators-bolden-clash-over-the-core-mission-of-nasa/> in
what was then called the Earth Observing System. George H.W. Bush, building
on a 1987 report by astronaut Sally Ride, funded a program that came to be
known as the “Mission to Planet Earth
<https://www.nasa.gov/50th/50th_magazine/earthSciences.html>.”

George W. Bush reversed course, and reduced resources
<http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/04/27/nasa.budget/> for the program
(his administration was eventually exposed for trying to suppress NASA
research on global warming
<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/04/science/nasa-chief-backs-agency-openness.html>).
Most recently, though, the division’s budget was greatly restored by Barack
Obama. A core argument of Walker and congressional critics of NASA earth
science, that budgets have ballooned and reduced resources for other NASA
science programs, has no basis, said Arthur Charo, who has tracked NASA
science budgets for the Standing Committee on Earth Science and
Applications from Space <http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_066587> of
the nongovernmental National Academy of Sciences.

He said a careful look at programs, adjusting for inflation, shows no
evidence of such a pattern. “There is a mythology that Earth Science has
undergone dramatic growth and that this growth has occurred at the expense
of other divisions in the Science Mission Directorate,” he said. “Both
assertions are false.”

An important chart of relative spending on Earth/Space science came in too
late to get in the story but makes some points that appear to contradict
Bob Walker's assertions, bolstering Arthur Charo's point in the piece. It's
here:

https://twitter.com/Revkin/status/808300867980066817


-- 
*ANDREW C. REVKIN,* *ProPublica Senior Reporter
<https://www.propublica.org/site/author/andrew_revkin> (*climate and
related issues) | Read my 2,810 Dot Earth posts
<http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/>, my essay making sense of the
#Anthropocene <http://j.mp/revkinanthropocene>, my reflection on 30 years
of climate learning <http://j.mp/revkin30yearsclimate>.

*Mobile: 914-441-5556, Twitter: @revkin
<http://twitter.com/revkin>, Facebook
<https://www.facebook.com/andrew.revkin.5>, Music <http://j.mp/revkinmusic>*


[image: --]

Andrew Revkin
[image: https://]about.me/revkin
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Re: [geo] Trump: Hot air and/or hot planet?

[Andrew Revkin]

But he also (in mostly-ignored statements) pledged to sustain federal R
and move away from fossil fuels>

Prospects for the Environment, and Environmentalism, Under President Trump
http://nyti.ms/2eDpzlU

Prospects for the Environment, and Environmentalism, Under President Trump
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
 NOVEMBER 9,
2016 1:09 PM November 9, 2016 1:09 pm 1

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Photo
[image: Donald Trump’s name is a prominent feature at the Trump Golf Links
municipal course in the Bronx.]
Donald Trump’s name is a prominent feature at the Trump Golf Links
municipal course in the Bronx.Credit Santiago Mejia/The New York Times

Various Postscripts | President Donald J. Trump

.

Get used to the sound of that, my environment-oriented friends.

Is this end times for environmental progress or, more specifically, climate
progress?

No.

The bad news about climate change is, in a way, the good news:

The main forces determining emission levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide
will be just as much out of President Trump’s hands as they were out of
President Obama’s. The decline in the United States has mainly been due to
market forces shifting electricity generation from coal to abundant and
cheaper natural gas ,
along with environmental regulations built around the traditional basket of
pollutants that even conservatives agreed were worth restricting
.
(Efficiency and gas-mileage standards and other factors help, too, of
course.)

At the same time, the unrelenting *rise* in greenhouse-gas emissions in
developing countries is propelled by an unbending reality identified way
back in 2005

by
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, when he said, “The blunt truth about the
politics of climate change is that no country will want to sacrifice its
economy in order to meet this challenge.”

At the same time, as well, other fundamental forces will continue to drive
polluted China

 and smog-choked India
 to
move away from unfettered coal combustion as a path to progress. An
expanding middle class is already demanding cleaner air and sustainable
transportation choices — just as similar forces enabled pollution cleanups
in the United States in the last century.

That’s why the Paris Agreement on climate change
 will continue to
register progress on emissions and investments in clean energy or climate
resilience, but only within the limits of what nations already consider
achievable (as others will be explaining in detail because the first
post-Paris round of negotiations

is
under way right now in Marrakech).

Long ago, Jesse Ausubel, a veteran Rockefeller University analyst of global
resource and environmental trends, asserted that, “in general, politicians
are pulling on disconnected levers
” at the
intersection of energy and environmental policy.
View image on Twitter

[image: View image on Twitter]


 Follow 
Andy Revkin
✔@Revkin 

In climate arena, politicians mostly pull on "disconnected levers" (Ausubel
@RockefellerUniv ) http://
nyti.ms/1uKqly1  
7:33 AM - 16 Dec 2014 
 · New York, USA, United States


   -
   
   -
55 Retweets
   
   -
11 like 

As I wrote in 2014
,
that doesn’t mean environmental agendas by politicians are useless, and
environmentalism remains vital as a result. But what approach is most
workable, particularly under a Trump administration with Congress in
Republican control?

It it end times for 20th-century-style us-them environmentalism?

Re: [geo] Negative emissions for climate change stabilization & the role of CO2 geological storage

[Andrew Revkin]

Here's a piece with a coda proposing who should help finance "negative
emissions" RD:


http://nyti.ms/1Omq9F2
As Documents Show Wider Oil Industry Knowledge of CO2 Climate Impacts, a
“Take it Back” Proposal
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
 DECEMBER 22,
2015 8:17 PM December 22, 2015 8:17 pm 3 Comments

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Photo
[image: http://insideclimatenews.org/news/22122015/exxon-mobil-oil-industry-peers-knew-about-climate-change-dangers-1970s-american-petroleum-institute-api-shell-chevron-texaco;>Documents
published by InsideClimate News show that oil companies and the
American Petroleum Institute (API) were gauging carbon dioxide's climate
impacts decades ago.]
Documents published

by
InsideClimate News show that oil companies and the American Petroleum
Institute (API) were gauging carbon dioxide's climate impacts decades ago.
CreditInsideClimate News

Updated, 8:38 p.m. | There are new revelations from the continuing
InsideClimate News investigation of what the oil industry knew about the
potential climate impacts of carbon dioxide from fuel burning even as it
sought delays in related national and international policies.

The headline and deck on today’s story neatly summarize the news:

Exxon’s oil industry peers knew about climate dangers in the 1970s, too.
Members of an American Petroleum Institute task force on CO2 included
scientists from nearly every major oil company, including Exxon, Texaco and
Shell.

Below you can read my proposal for what the industry might do to make the
best use of its deep knowledge of carbon dioxide and climate change, along
with its scientific and technical capacity.

Here’s a snippet from Neela Banerjee’s article, but please read the rest at
the link below:

The American Petroleum Institute together with the nation’s largest oil
companies ran a task force to monitor and share climate research between
1979 and 1983, indicating that the oil industry, not just Exxon alone, was
aware of its possible impact on the world’s climate far earlier than
previously known.

The group’s members included senior scientists and engineers from nearly
every major U.S. and multinational oil and gas company, including Exxon,
Mobil, Amoco, Phillips, Texaco, Shell, Sunoco, and Sohio, according to
internal documents obtained by InsideClimate News and interviews with the
task force’s former director. [*Read the rest
*
.]

My thoughts on the series’ earlier findings are here

.

All of this bolsters a notion I first floated awhile ago on Twitter
, related to a 1978
proposal by an Exxon scientist, Harold N. Weinberg:

In a memo to superiors, revealed in InsideClimate’s earlier reporting
,
Weinberg wrote: “What would be more appropriate than for the world’s
leading energy company and leading oil company [to] take the lead in trying
to define whether a long-term CO2 problem really exists and, if so, what
counter measures would be appropriate.”

The proposal was not embraced, needless to say.

While others pursue investigations

that
may or may not bear fruit (but will surely enrich several generations of
lawyers), I have an idea for something that could start now.

I suggest that Exxon, and perhaps the fossil fuel industry more generally,
might help propel a vigorous new burst of research in ways to take back the
CO2 added to the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion at a scale that would
matter to the climate system. (Those of us who benefitted from decades of
cheap fossil fuels can do our part by supporting boosted federal
investments in clean-energy science

 and technology development — and, yes, deployment

.)

After all, the putative trajectories for avoiding dangerous climate change
 that
were the centerpiece of discussions and pledges in the Paris climate treaty
talks all rely on as-yet-untested massive atmospheric CO2 removal

[geo] Exclusive interview with Russia's leading permafrost expert, fresh from Siberian hole

[Andrew Revkin]

Marina Leibman says some fascinating things about the durability of
permafrost in the face of surface warming, including some negative
feedbacks that further insulate it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5fK3TT2GAQfeature=youtu.be



-- 
*_*

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth, The New York Times
Senior Fellow http://www.pace.edu/paaes/faculty-and-staff, Pace U.
Academy for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin http://twitter.com/revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin
Music: A Very Fine Line http://veryfinelines.com CD

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[geo] With some studies published, a fresh assessment of the Haida iron/salmon project

[Andrew Revkin]

L 18 7:55 AMJul 18 7:55 am Comment
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/a-fresh-look-at-iron-plankton-carbon-salmon-and-ocean-engineering/#commentsContainer
A Fresh Look at Iron, Plankton, Carbon, Salmon and Ocean Engineering
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/a-fresh-look-at-iron-plankton-carbon-salmon-and-ocean-engineering/?module=BlogPost-Titleversion=Blog%20MaincontentCollection=technologyaction=Clickpgtype=Blogsregion=Body
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/author/andrew-c-revkin/

   -
   -
   -

Video of the 2012 Haida iron fertilization effort

Two years ago this month, an edge-pushing environmental entrepreneur
http://www.loe.org/series/series.html?seriesID=27 and a company formed by
a Native Canadian village set off a wave of international protest by dispersing
a pink slurry of 100 tons of iron-rich dust
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/19/science/earth/iron-dumping-experiment-in-pacific-alarms-marine-experts.html
over
one of the 60-mile-wide ocean eddies
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/252383340_Iron_transport_by_mesoscale_Haida_eddies_in_the_Gulf_of_Alaska/file/3deec5297b996a55fa.pdf
that
routinely drift across the salmon feeding grounds of the Gulf of Alaska.

Their goal, in the face of steep declines in Pacific salmon catches
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sockeye-salmon-adult-populations-in-widespread-decline-1.1136426,
was to trigger a plankton population explosion with the infusion of iron, a
vital nutrient that’s lacking in those waters. Volcanic eruptions
http://news.sciencemag.org/2010/10/how-volcanoes-feed-plankton had been
shown to do the same thing. Why not humans?

The plankton bloom, in theory, would nourish millions of juvenile fish that
circulate in the Gulf before returning to the coast to spawn.

Along with a boosted catch, a second hoped-for payoff was the sale of
carbon credits on international markets aimed at offsetting greenhouse gas
pollution by financing projects that absorb heat-trapping carbon dioxide —
typically by planting trees but in this case through spurring plankton
growth. More than $2 million was invested in the project through the tribal
company, the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation
http://www.haidasalmonrestoration.com/index.php/about-us/our-story.

The protests
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/15/pacific-iron-fertilisation-geoengineering
mainly
came from groups and scientists critical of geo-engineering, large-scale
efforts to harness or control the shared environment to serve human needs —
particularly if the efforts were private. They asserted the project
violated international ocean-dumping rules and a moratorium on ocean
fertilization.

Russ George, the iron-dust entrepreneur (who is now in a legal fight with
some of his former partners
http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/companies/RussGeorge/2013/20140224HSRC-vs-Russ-George-counterclaim.pdf),
has defended the effort as stewardship, not pollution.

Don’t count on a quick resolution of either the litigation or any
prosecution arising from a long-running investigation by Canada’s
environment agency
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/ocean-fertilization-experiment-loses-in-bc-court-charges-now-likely/article16672031/,
which has asserted in court that the project violated Canadian law.

But now that independent scientists have appraised the 2012 iron pulse, and
millions of young salmon that were at sea that summer are heading up
streams, and into nets, it’s at least possible to begin assessing outcomes
and lessons from this freelance effort at treating the open sea like a
farmer’s field — and a carbon safe-deposit box.  READ MORE…
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/a-fresh-look-at-iron-plankton-carbon-salmon-and-ocean-engineering/?module=BlogPost-ReadMoreversion=Blog%20Mainaction=ClickcontentCollection=technologypgtype=Blogsregion=Body#more-52728

-- 
*_*

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth, The New York Times
Senior Fellow http://www.pace.edu/paaes/faculty-and-staff, Pace U.
Academy for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin http://twitter.com/revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin
Music: A Very Fine Line http://veryfinelines.com CD

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[geo] apologies for wrong piece clipped

[Andrew Revkin]

Not sure what happened there. Here's latest reply to the Hamilton rejection
of a 'good' path in a turbulent time - from Michael Tobis and Curt Stager:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/two-climate-researchers-weigh-the-notion-of-a-good-path-in-the-anthropocene
Two Climate Analysts Weigh the Notion of a ‘Good’ Path in the Anthropocene
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/author/andrew-c-revkin/ JUNE 22, 2014
9:50 AM 20 Comments
[image: A 2013 art installation at Edge Hill University near Liverpool,
England, by Robyn Woolston included this mock sign, Welcome to the
Fabulous Anthropocene Era (enlarge). The Anthropocene is a name some
scientists have proposed for this era in which humans have become a
dominant influence on the environment.]Robyn WoolstonA 2013 art installation
http://www.edgehill.ac.uk/news/story/habitus-art-installation-unveiled/ at
Edge Hill University near Liverpool, England, by Robyn Woolston
http://www.robynwoolston.com/ included this mock sign, “Welcome to the
Fabulous Anthropocene Era” (enlarge
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2014/06/16/blogs/dotanthropocenesign/dotanthropocenesign-jumbo.jpg).
The Anthropocene is a name some scientists have proposed for this era in
which humans have become a dominant influence on the environment.

I’m just catching up with reactions from two climate and sustainability
analysts (Michael Tobis and Curt Stager) to my recent talk charting a
“good” path through the age of us
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOtj3mskx5k#t=523, the Anthropocene,
and Clive
Hamilton’s blunt critique
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/06/18/a-darker-view-of-the-age-of-us-the-anthropocene/
.

Stager — a hybrid of climate scientist, ecologist and author
http://curtstager.com/About__Biography_.html (and musician
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TH8Syz0NvD4) — posted a comment that is
worth elevating here as a “Your Dot http://j.mp/YourDot” contribution:

Ethicist Clive Hamilton’s premise that seeing anything but catastrophe in
an Anthropocene future is “un-scientific” is itself unscientific – a value
judgment, not a statement of fact. As a climate scientist, I see many
changes coming that worry me, but I also try not to confuse my feelings
about them with the full complexity of reality, and I do see some rays of
hope amid the storm.

Science demands that we consider more than what most grabs our attention,
and as with past global changes one’s loss is another’s gain; this makes
rigorous ethical analysis more difficult than the science itself. As Arctic
sea ice species wane, southern taxa are re-colonizing waters their
ancestors knew in past warm periods, and as parts of Bangladesh submerge
Greenlanders find new opportunities. Hamilton’s response is understandable,
but he seems to forget what “scientific” means.

Judging from reactions to my book, “Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of
Life on Earth http://www.amazon.com/dp/0312614624,” it is often strict
scientific views of such changes that most upset people who, as Andy
suggests, appear to hope for the worst. Our responses to global change
reflect who we are, what we know (or think we know), and our emotional
wiring.

But in this turbulent dawn of the Anthropocene when our thoughts and
actions trigger massive, long-lasting changes for better and for worse,
recognizing what is or is not “science” is crucial to understanding what is
happening and thus — by my own ethical lights — a responsibility, too.

Michael Tobis
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/30/a-new-blog-on-earth-friendly-policies/,
who is often a critic of my thinking on climate change science, creditably
took the time to watch my talk and offered a constructive reaction on his
Planet 3.0 blog http://planet3.org/2014/06/17/a-good-anthropocene/.
Here’s an excerpt:

[T]he argument is whether it is permissible to juxtapose the words “good”
and “anthropocene.” But “good” is such a vague word that objecting to it
seems to me a very weak posture. Indeed, in his Dot Earth piece he mentions
that he is using “good” in an ethical sense, not in a sense of outcomes. He
says:

*I was invited to give the opening talk, which I called “Paths to a ‘Good’
Anthropocene” — with quotation marks around the adjective “good” to stress
that values determine choices.*

Not only do I entirely agree that we can have an ethically “good” future, I
also believe that we can have an actually “good” future in terms of
dignity, sustainability and joy. Some say it is automatic, and we should
just eschew meddling with the corporate economy which will inevitably
deliver left to its devices. I don’t believe that for a minute. A good
outcome will require a lot of work and a fair amount of courage. But if I
thought it was out of reach, I’d go all doomer and hide in a cave.

What motivates me to keep going is the following by Bruce Sterling:

*Our capacities are tremendous. Eventually, it is within our technical
ability to create factories that clean the air as they 

[geo] Colbert isn't the only humorist exploring geo-engineering

[Andrew Revkin]

If you haven't seen the 2008 video at bottom of this post, have a look:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/13/engineering-the-climate-colberts-all-chocolate-dinner/
HUMOR http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/category/humor/ December 13,
2013, 10:13 am 
Commenthttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/13/engineering-the-climate-colberts-all-chocolate-dinner/#postComment
Engineering the Climate – Colbert’s ‘All-Chocolate Dinner’By ANDREW C.
REVKIN http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/author/andrew-c-revkin/

*The Colbert Report*
Get More: Colbert Report Full
Episodeshttp://www.colbertnation.com/full-episodes/
,Video Archive http://www.colbertnation.com/video



I’ve been meaning to post this since
Tuesdayhttps://twitter.com/Revkin/status/410436671008542721,
but better late than never. I encourage you, as a tonic for anything that
ails, to watch Stephen Colbert’s
conversationhttp://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/431083/december-09-2013/david-keith
 with David Keith http://www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/dkeith, the
Harvard professor of applied physics and public policy, on his book, “A
Case for Climate Engineering http://www.keith.seas.harvard.edu/book.”

The discussion is all aimed at humor, of course, with Colbert reacting to
Keith’s argument for blunting global warming with sun-blocking sulfate
aerosolshttp://www.spiegel.de/international/world/scientist-david-keith-on-slowing-global-warming-with-geoengineering-a-934359.html
this
way:

So we owe acid rain an apology, is what you’re saying.

And to drive the point home further, he adds:

This is the all-chocolate dinner. I get to have my CO2 and I get to spray
sulfuric acid all over the Earth.

But behind the laughs, they end up circling to serious issues, including
the question I’ve explored here several times: Who gets to set Earth’s
thermostat?http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/24/who-gets-to-set-earths-thermostat/

Highly paid comedians aren’t alone in touching on engineering the climate
in a lighthearted way. In case you missed it, here’s a student-shot video
explaining geo-engineering, which I first highlighted in my 2008 post “Fun
With Mirrors and Dust – a Climate
Fix?”http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/fun-with-mirrors-and-dust-a-climate-fix/
:

   -


-- 
*_*

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth, The New York Times
Senior Fellow http://www.pace.edu/paaes/faculty-and-staff, Pace U.
Academy for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin http://twitter.com/revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin
Music: A Very Fine Line http://veryfinelines.com CD

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Re: [geo] Rutgers SLR Experts Survey 11-22-2013

[Andrew Revkin]

I'd like to see the methodology scrutinized by an independent analyst
specializing in expert elicitations (this may have been done, but none of
the authors seem to be from that discipline).

To winnow from 500 researchers publishing 6 papers in the last five years
to 90 who returned estimates could potentially torque the results toward
scientists with a position to stake?

I'll ask Granger Morgan et al to have a look.




On Wed, Nov 27, 2013 at 2:12 PM, French, Bruce bruce.fre...@yorkrsg.comwrote:

 FYI- SLR survey results from Rutgers:

 *Sea Level Experts Concerned About ‘High-End’ Scenarios*

 “A survey of nearly 100 experts on sea level rise reveals that scientists
 think there is a good chance the global average sea level rise can be
 limited to less than 3.3 feet by 2100…”




 http://www.climatecentral.org/news/sea-level-rise-experts-concerned-about-high-end-scenarios-16767

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-- 
*_*

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth, The New York Times
Senior Fellow http://www.pace.edu/paaes/faculty-and-staff, Pace U.
Academy for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin http://twitter.com/revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin
Music: A Very Fine Line http://veryfinelines.com CD

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Re: [geo] A Case for Climate Engineering

[Andrew Revkin]

we need to do a chat for dot earth when you have time (google+ hangout?). i
have book and started to go through it. will take til next week to get it
done given flow of other stuff.


On Tue, Oct 29, 2013 at 8:55 AM, David Keith davidkeit...@gmail.com wrote:

 My book *A Case for Climate Engineering* is published this week.



 For some details, reviews and recent press see:
 http://www.keith.seas.harvard.edu/book/. The book is available from
 Amazon and other retailers.



 Clive Hamilton and I had a debate in Cambridge last night and will do a
 second one at Columbia University in New York tonight that will be covered
 on C-SPAN’s book TV. We did a version for NPR that will run on their Living
 on Earth http://www.loe.org/ show.



 David

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*
*
ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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Re: [geo] Naomi Klein: Green groups may be more damaging than climate change deniers - Salon.com

[Andrew Revkin]

All the points Andrew made below about geo-engineering were made in recent
years about adaptation (some called it immoral to even talk of adaptation).

The reality, of course, is that the epic, multi-generational path from a
fossil-fueled civilization to whatever comes next is implicitly an
all-of-the above task. John Holdren has distilled it pretty well with
mitigation, adaptation, suffering and that still works if you include
research on geo-engineering under mitigation (in other words, mitigating
warming along with emissions).


On Tue, Sep 10, 2013 at 7:56 AM, Ken Caldeira kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
 wrote:

 Naomi Klein is wrong.

 I do not see any substantial subset of people researching geoengineering
 who see it as a way to avoid doing the hard work of reducing emissions.

 For most, researching  'geoengineering' is an expression of despair at the
 fact that others are unwilling to do the hard work of reducing emissions.


 ___
 Ken Caldeira

 Carnegie Institution for Science
 Dept of Global Ecology
 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
 +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
 http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab  @kencaldeira




 On Tue, Sep 10, 2013 at 4:28 AM, Andrew Lockley 
 andrew.lock...@gmail.comwrote:

 Poster's note : short extract below discussing geoengineering. Full
 interview is very good. It basically describes why I left the green
 movement - they're all out of ideas and they have no solutions left. I
 don't agree with her conclusions, however - especially on geoengineering.


 http://www.salon.com/2013/09/05/naomi_klein_big_green_groups_are_crippling_the_environmental_movement_partner/

 You were talking about the Clean Development Mechanism as a sort of
 disaster capitalism. Isn’t geoengineering the ultimate disaster capitalism?

 I certainly think it’s the ultimate expression of a desire to avoid doing
 the hard work of reducing emissions, and I think that’s the appeal of it. I
 think we will see this trajectory the more and more climate change becomes
 impossible to deny. A lot of people will skip right to geoengineering. The
 appeal of geoengineering is that it doesn’t threaten our worldview. It
 leaves us in a dominant position. It says that there is an escape hatch. So
 all the stories that got us to this point, that flatter ourselves for our
 power, will just be scaled up.

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Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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[geo] Dan Kahan of Yale on Alan's question about geo-eng studies

[Andrew Revkin]

Dan sent this when I sent out a query to some social scientists on Alan's
geo-eng-group question (not sure if it was directly posted as well)

Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: A Cross-Cultural
Experiment 
http://www.culturalcognition.net/browse-papers/geoengineering-and-the-science-communication-environment-a-c.html
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1981907

We conducted a two-nation study (United States, *n* = 1500; England, *n* =
1500) to test a novel theory of science communication. The *cultural
cognition thesis* posits that individuals make extensive reliance on
cultural meanings in forming perceptions of risk. The logic of the cultural
cognition thesis suggests the potential value of a distinctive
*two-channel* science
communication strategy that combines information content (“Channel 1”) with
cultural meanings (“Channel 2”) selected to promote open-minded assessment
of information across diverse communities. In the study, scientific
information content on climate change was held constant while the cultural
meaning of that information was experimentally manipulated. Consistent with
the study hypotheses, we found that making citizens aware of the potential
contribution of *geoengineering* as a supplement to restriction of CO2
emissions
helps to offset cultural polarization over the validity of climate-change
science. We also tested the hypothesis, derived from competing models of
science communication, that exposure to information on geoengineering would
provoke discounting of climate-change risks generally. Contrary to this
hypothesis, we found that subjects exposed to information about
geoengineering were slightly more concerned about climate change risks than
those assigned to a control condition.



-- 
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*
ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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Re: [geo] What kind of observing system do we need in place to take maximal advantage of the next big volcano?

[Andrew Revkin]

great question. i'd like to post a variant on dot earth from you if you'd
be okay with that. just another sentence or two on why volcanoes are
important natural experiments, perhaps a line on how recent work has found
that more modest volcanoes seem to have more impact (?), then the callout?


On Wed, Jul 17, 2013 at 4:20 PM, Ken Caldeira kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
 wrote:

 With respect to learning more about potential consequences of solar
 geoengineering, what kinds of observing systems do we need in place to
 take maximal advantage of the next big volcano?

 What would we want to have in space (and why)?

 What would we want to have in airplanes (and why)?

 What would we want on the ground (and why)?

 How would these assets be utilized when there is no big volcano?

 Are there any high-quality reports or studies that address this issue?

 -


 --
 ___
 Ken Caldeira

 Carnegie Institution for Science
 Dept of Global Ecology
 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
 +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu
 http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab  @kencaldeira

 *Caldeira Lab is hiring postdoctoral researchers.*
 *http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira_employment.html*

 Assistant: Sharyn Nantuna, snant...@carnegiescience.edu



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Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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Re: [geo] Re: Why Greenland’s melting could be the biggest climate disaster of all

[Andrew Revkin]

There's also fresh input from Richard A. (and Waleed Abdalati) on Greenland
and sea level in this new dot earth post:

Eyes Turn to Antarctica as Study Shows Greenland's Ice Has Endured Warmer
Climates http://nyti.ms/Yq7uhA

I turned to Richard
Alleyhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/richard-alleys-orbital-and-climate-dance/,
who’s become a vital touchstone for me on such research, for some insights.
Here’s his comment, followed by my closing thoughts:

I have three immediate responses: Satisfaction in the great success of the
collaboration, concern that this slightly increases worries about future
sea-level rise from human-caused warming, but technical questions that may
leave us more-or-less where we were before on the biggest picture.

Taken in turn:

Having watched colleagues go to the immense effort of learning what
information is desired by policymakers and other citizens, assemble the
logistical and scientific abilities to supply that information, and
actually do it over a lot of years, and knowing just how many of their
kids’ soccer games and recitals some of the scientist-parents missed, I
have to smile when the team succeeds so well.

As to the big picture, there is strong evidence from the history of sea
level on coasts from the Eemian that both Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets shrank notably, contributing to a globally averaged sea-level rise
of very roughly 20 feet. This occurred primarily in response to a
rearrangement of where sunshine reached the planet and when during the
year, with more summer sunshine in the north but very little total change.
And, some uncertainty has remained on the exact balance between Greenland
and Antarctic contributions. The new paper suggests that the contribution
from Greenland was on the low end of the prior estimates, but has little
effect on the estimated total sea-level change, which points to a larger
Antarctic source than the previous best estimate.

In my opinion (and I believe the opinions of many colleagues), we have
greater understanding of Greenland’s ice than Antarctica’s, and we have
greater confidence that Greenland will be “well-behaved” — we will more
easily project changes in Greenland’s ice, with greater confidence that
changes begun now will take centuries or longer to be mostly completed.

By shifting more of the sea-level rise into the less-understood ice, and
thus into the ice with greater chance of doing something rapidly, I believe
the new paper at least slightly increases the concerns for coastal
planners, even if the chance of a rapid change from Antarctic ice remains
small.

As to the technical parts, as described in many sources, we have lots of
paleothermometers for the central Greenland ice cores over the last 100,000
years, providing multiple validation and high confidence that temperatures
have been estimated accurately. The very changes in the ice sheet that are
of greatest interest here also make the effort quite difficult. The melting
of the Eemian interferes with gas-based paleothermometry, and with the
total-gas technique that provides constraints on changes in surface
elevation.

A U.S. government CCSP report on Arctic paleoclimates a few years ago (to
which I contributed)
[linkhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/eyes-turn-to-antarctica-as-study-shows-greenlands-ice-has-endured-warmer-climates/%3Ehttp://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-2/final-report/default.htm]
estimated changes in temperature and ice volume for this interval. The new
estimates overlap with the older ones. Were I working on that report now, I
would recommend expanding the uncertainties a little to include the new
results. However, considering that ice shrinkage on Greenland has a
feedback effect (exposing rocks allows more sun to be absorbed, causing
more warming), considering the evidence of Eemian warmth from marine
records around Greenland, considering climate model runs for that time,
considering other studies of Greenland, and recalling the notable
uncertainties associated with untangling the changes in total gas and in
the ice sheet itself, I suspect that the estimates in that CCSP report will
stand up pretty well, with the new work primarily confirming the prior
understanding of climate changes and ice-sheet and sea-level response in
the Eemian.

If anyone is thinking that this paper means we can crank up the temperature
without worrying about sea level, they should seriously re-think. Overall,
a great and successful scientific effort leaves us with the knowledge that
warming does tend to melt ice, and that contributes to sea-level rise.

In a followup note to him, I said:

Beautifully articulated. but I do think [the new work] closes the case that
Greenland, despite all of its drama (moulins, for
examplehttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/03/a-tempered-view-of-greenlands-gushing-drainpipes/)
— drama that focused my attention for a few years too — is a sideshow in
the sea level question.

That’s not how it’s been 

Re: [geo] Re: Why Greenland's melting could be the biggest climate disaster of all

[Andrew Revkin]

A sideshow to sea-level questions on policy-relevant time scales. (2100-ish
at best)..

You're talking geological scale here.

Tad Pfeffer's 2008 analysis of worst-case discharge rate still a keystone
to clear thinking on this.


On Mon, Jan 28, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Thomas Homer-Dixon t...@homerdixon.comwrote:

 “Greenland . . . is a sideshow in the sea level question.”

 ** **

 I see nothing in the Dahl-Jensen article that could possible justify such
 a sweeping and dismissive claim. Alley himself says: “We have high
 confidence that warming will shrink Greenland, by enough to matter a lot to
 coastal planners.”

 ** **

 Thomas Homer-Dixon

 University of Waterloo

 ** **

 ** **

 ** **

 On Jan 28, 2013 5:12 PM, Andrew Revkin rev...@gmail.com wrote:

 There's also fresh input from Richard A. (and Waleed Abdalati) on
 Greenland and sea level in this new dot earth post: 

 ** **

 Eyes Turn to Antarctica as Study Shows Greenland's Ice Has Endured Warmer
 Climates http://nyti.ms/Yq7uhA

 ** **

 I turned to Richard 
 Alleyhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/richard-alleys-orbital-and-climate-dance/,
 who’s become a vital touchstone for me on such research, for some insights.
 Here’s his comment, followed by my closing thoughts:

 I have three immediate responses: Satisfaction in the great success of the
 collaboration, concern that this slightly increases worries about future
 sea-level rise from human-caused warming, but technical questions that may
 leave us more-or-less where we were before on the biggest picture.

 Taken in turn:

 Having watched colleagues go to the immense effort of learning what
 information is desired by policymakers and other citizens, assemble the
 logistical and scientific abilities to supply that information, and
 actually do it over a lot of years, and knowing just how many of their
 kids’ soccer games and recitals some of the scientist-parents missed, I
 have to smile when the team succeeds so well.

 As to the big picture, there is strong evidence from the history of sea
 level on coasts from the Eemian that both Greenland and Antarctic ice
 sheets shrank notably, contributing to a globally averaged sea-level rise
 of very roughly 20 feet. This occurred primarily in response to a
 rearrangement of where sunshine reached the planet and when during the
 year, with more summer sunshine in the north but very little total change.
 And, some uncertainty has remained on the exact balance between Greenland
 and Antarctic contributions. The new paper suggests that the contribution
 from Greenland was on the low end of the prior estimates, but has little
 effect on the estimated total sea-level change, which points to a larger
 Antarctic source than the previous best estimate.

 In my opinion (and I believe the opinions of many colleagues), we have
 greater understanding of Greenland’s ice than Antarctica’s, and we have
 greater confidence that Greenland will be “well-behaved” — we will more
 easily project changes in Greenland’s ice, with greater confidence that
 changes begun now will take centuries or longer to be mostly completed.***
 *

 By shifting more of the sea-level rise into the less-understood ice, and
 thus into the ice with greater chance of doing something rapidly, I believe
 the new paper at least slightly increases the concerns for coastal
 planners, even if the chance of a rapid change from Antarctic ice remains
 small.

 As to the technical parts, as described in many sources, we have lots of
 paleothermometers for the central Greenland ice cores over the last 100,000
 years, providing multiple validation and high confidence that temperatures
 have been estimated accurately. The very changes in the ice sheet that are
 of greatest interest here also make the effort quite difficult. The melting
 of the Eemian interferes with gas-based paleothermometry, and with the
 total-gas technique that provides constraints on changes in surface
 elevation.

 A U.S. government CCSP report on Arctic paleoclimates a few years ago (to
 which I contributed) 
 [linkhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/24/eyes-turn-to-antarctica-as-study-shows-greenlands-ice-has-endured-warmer-climates/%3Ehttp:/www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-2/final-report/default.htm]
 estimated changes in temperature and ice volume for this interval. The new
 estimates overlap with the older ones. Were I working on that report now, I
 would recommend expanding the uncertainties a little to include the new
 results. However, considering that ice shrinkage on Greenland has a
 feedback effect (exposing rocks allows more sun to be absorbed, causing
 more warming), considering the evidence of Eemian warmth from marine
 records around Greenland, considering climate model runs for that time,
 considering other studies of Greenland, and recalling the notable
 uncertainties associated with untangling the changes in total gas and in
 the ice sheet

Re: [geo] Haida Salmon Restoration Project - Legal and Commercial issues

[Andrew Revkin]

For the record I agree (particularly on basis that they see this as Haida
waters, that evidence from eruption plumes points to salmon benefit.

On Monday, October 22, 2012, Bhaskar M V bhaskarmv...@gmail.com wrote:
 Haida Salmon Restoration Project
 Legal issues -

 The media advisory released by Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation's law
firm -

http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1055481/media-advisory-the-haida-salmon-restoration-corporation-october-19th-media-availability-on-salmon-enhancement-project

 MEDIA ADVISORY - The Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation - October 19th
media availability on salmon enhancement project

 VANCOUVER, Oct. 18, 2012 /CNW/ - The Haida Salmon Restoration
Corporation, founded and majority owned by the Old Massett Village Council
of Haida Gwaii is engaged in on-going ocean research and environmental
studies approximately 200 nautical miles west of Haida Gwaii. This work is
lawful, on-going, self-funded and in compliance with the Law of the Sea
Convention and Canada's Ocean Act.

 The purpose of this salmon-enhancement pilot research project, also
called ocean restoration or ocean micronutrient replenishment, is to study
conditions of the Haida Ocean, with particular attention to the collapse of
ocean plankton blooms that traditionally provide nutrients to salmon and
other marine life. The Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation is studying and
developing methods that may be useful in restoring the growth of
phytoplankton and thereby sustain and enhance the production of all marine
life and create a sustainable economy for Old Massett.

 Chief Councillor Ken Rea of the Old Massett Village Council will outline
the project and how the village initiated and founded the company to
proceed with the project.
 Mr. John Disney, the president of Haida Salmon Research Corporation will
be available along with legal counsel James L. Straith whose firm completed
a comprehensive international and domestic legal status review and legal
position paper prior to the work done at sea.

 Where:  Vancouver Aquarium
   845 Avison Way in Stanley Park
   Media Registration at Aquaquest Reception (white trailer) between
9-9:20 a.m.
 When:  Friday October 19, 2012
 Time:   9:30 AM

 SOURCE: Haida Salmon Restoration Corp.

 For further information:

 Jay Straith or K. Joseph Spears at  604-921-1122 or e-mail at
k...@oceanlawcanada.com

 Straith Litigation, 6438 Bay Street, West Vancouver British Columbia
Canada V6W 2H1.

 ---

 So they are clear that their actions are legal and it appears that Russ
George was only an adviser and not a beneficiary.

 Commercial Issues

 Living Oceans Society releases new evidence Re: Old Masset Iron
Fertilization Scheme


http://livingoceans.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/Iron%20fertilization.pdf

 Northern Savings Credit Union's letter dated February 28th, 2011 to Old
Masset Village Council

 Clearly the credit as structured really represents a loan being made on
a fully secured basis with Term Deposits as collateral and as such one
might argue that you are clearly borrowing your own money.

 Thus it appears that the Haida nation people were funding the project
with their own money and conducted it in their own waters or at least close
to their island to restore their fishing.

 They should be applauded and not condemned.

 regards

 Bhaskar

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http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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[geo] Geo-engineering and Arctic mentioned here.

[Andrew Revkin]

 faster than most models
predicted and clearly has, as a result, unnerved some polar researchers by
revealing how much is unknown about ice behavior in a warming climate.

Even with this year’s extreme loss, there’s still a wide range of
predictions among polar scientists of how soon the northernmost ocean will
be “ice free” in late summer. Peter Wadhams, a British oceanographer
who’s charted
ice conditions for many
yearshttp://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=enq=wadhams+submarine+ice+arcticbtnG=as_sdt=1%2C33as_sdtp=,
is an outlier in predicting 2015 or
sohttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
(he
has joined an assortment of people calling for emergency geo-engineering
effortshttp://ameg.me/index.php/24-the-case-for-emergency-geo-engineering-to-save-the-arctic-from-collapseto
chill the Arctic).

But most of the dozen or so ice scientists I’ve consulted of late (and
several dozen since 2000) remain closer in their views to Cecilia
Bitzhttp://vimeo.com/15622850 of
the University of Washington, who recently agreed with my notion (as a
longtime, but lay, observer) that there’s “a 50-50 chance it will take a
few 
decadeshttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/a-bad-bet-on-arctic-sea-ice/.”
(Keep in mind that almost all Arctic sea ice researchers add a big caveat
when talking of an “ice-free Arctic Ocean,” noting that a big region of
thick floes north and west of Greenland will almost surely persist in
summers through this century, which is one reason some
scientistshttp://e360.yale.edu/feature/as_the_arctic_ocean_melts_a_refuge_plan_for_the_polar_bear/2355/
have
proposed targeting polar bear conservation
effortshttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/17/pondering-a-polar-predator-in-retreat/
 there.)

It’s clear to a range of scientists that the enormous loss of old, thick
ice carried on currents from the Arctic out past Greenland into the
Atlantic Ocean in recent years is a major factor that has led to sharp
summer melting. (With the ocean cloaked mainly in relatively thin floes,
formed over a single winter, the chances rise each summer of a big melt-off
under the 24-hour sun and influxes of warmer seawater.) The forces driving
that ice exodus are complicated, as you’ll hear from the scientists
contributing below.

This animated, three-dimensional graph, created by an amateur Arctic
watcher, Andy Lee Robinson, using data from the Piomas model of scientists
at the University of Washington, gives an incredibly interesting view of
how the reduction in overall ice volume has proceeded:

I asked Robinson, who is an engineer, graphics and programming expert and
musician, to explain the steps and sources behind the graph. Click here for my
Slideshare posting of his detailed
replyhttp://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/explainer-animated-3d-arctic-ice-volume-graph
.

While you wait for the exchange with ice researchers, I encourage you to
explore the developing string of posts by Judith Curry of Georgia Tech, who
led one of several research
groupshttp://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/closer-look-at-arctic-sea-ice-melt-and-extreme-weather-15013
recently
reporting links between summer ice loss and severe winter weather in
temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere (her relevant paper is
herehttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/02/17/1114910109.full.pdf).
Her first post explored this question:“How should we interpret the record
low minimum sea ice
extent?”http://judithcurry.com/2012/09/16/reflections-on-the-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-part-i/
Her
second asked: “Whence an ‘ice free’ Arctic? Does an ‘ice free’ Arctic
matter?”http://judithcurry.com/2012/09/17/reflections-on-the-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-part-ii/

Also, you can start by exploring an illustrated view of the array of
factors – from sea-bottom topography to warm water – that may be in play in
the changing Arctic Ocean provided by James Morison http://j.mp/dotmorison of
the University of Washington. Morison has been studying Arctic sea ice and
waters for decades and runs an annual expedition to the North Pole to drop
instruments through the ice into the ocean below (the one I got to go on in
2003 http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/science/20030513_NORTH/). He
stresses this is informed speculation at this point, putting him in good
company considering the many ideas in circulation and the persistent
uncertainties in the system.

*An Arctic Expert’s View of the Great Ice Melt of
2012http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin/an-arctic-experts-view-of-the-great-ice-melt-of-2012
 *from *Andrew Revkin http://www.slideshare.net/Revkin*

*4:37 p.m. | Postscript |* The scope of what’s unfolding, and the
fascinating and persistent science and policy questions, make me think I
need to update and expand my prize-winning book on the once and future
Arctic, “The North Pole Was
Here.”http://us.macmillan.com/newyorktimesthenorthpolewashere/AndrewRevkin
Thoughts
welcome. The first chapter is online
here.http://www.nytimes.com/ref/learning/newssummaries/northpolech1

[geo] Re: Stoat strongly criticises AMEG

[Andrew Revkin]

I'm with Stoat, Ken Caldeira, David Keith, Alan Robock and others who see 
this emergency effort to rush cloud intervention in the Arctic on behalf 
of sea ice (and indirectly seabed methane) as undermining the case for a 
serious push on geo-engineering options, impacts and policy issues. You're 
getting headlines and the attention of factions in Parliament now, but just 
wait until the variability kicks the other way.


Yelling fire on a hot 
planethttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/23/weekinreview/23revkin.html?_r=2can 
have unanticipated consequences.

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Re: [geo] New YouTube video: Kate Ricke on Nature Climate Change paper on cliamte sensitivity and effectiveness of SRM

[Andrew Revkin]

I concur with Andrew. Great to see Ken doing this.

It's both a responsibility AND opportunity, particularly given the
shrinking mainstream science media.

Two relevant pieces:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/filling-the-science-communication-gap/

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/the-changing-communication-climate/

On Thu, Mar 1, 2012 at 5:26 PM, Andrew Lockley andrew.lock...@gmail.comwrote:

 Peeps can subscribe to Ken's channel on this link
 http://www.youtube.com/user/CarnegieGlobEcology?feature=watch

 It would be great to see other researchers set up channels like this to
 explain their work using videos.  It's a good way of promoting our science
 for policymakers, general public, teachers and other scientists.  Maybe
 researchers with blogs, YouTube channels, twitter feeds and facebook pages
 can post them in a reply?

 If we want to put the science back into the public discourse, we have to
 reach out directly to the public into through social media.  I work
 professionally in this field, and it's amazing how much publicity you can
 get with little time or effort.  I helped a friend set up a youtube channel
 for a fairly obscure health topic, and she got ~10,000 views a year for her
 ~20 videos - and they were just interview style videos done with no special
 equipment.  If anyone wants some help or advice with this kind of thing,
 just get in touch.

 I can't stress how important it is for us to reach out.  We can't rely on
 Fox News to do it, and the public doesn't read Nature.

 A


 On 1 March 2012 19:34, Ken Caldeira kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.eduwrote:

 Climate sensitivity and effectiveness of solar radiation management: Dr.
 Katharine L. Rickehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvUUup0mMU4

 Katharine L. Ricke, Dan Rowlands, William J. Ingram, David W. Keith and
 M. Granger Morgan.(2011). Effectiveness of stratospheric solar radiation
 management as a function of climate sensitivity. Nature Climate Change, 2:
 92-96.


 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1328.html

 (paper attached)
 ___
 Ken Caldeira

 Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
 +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu
 http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab  @kencaldeira

 *YouTube:*
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9LaYCbYCxoClimate change and the
 transition from coal to low-carbon 
 electricityhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9LaYCbYCxo
 Crop yields in a geoengineered 
 climatehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0LCXNoIu-c


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[geo] More scientists weigh in on Arctic methane and climate risk.

[Andrew Revkin]

December 28, 2011, *1:13 PM*More Views on Climate Risk and Arctic
Methanehttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/more-views-on-global-warmin-and-arctic-methane/
By ANDREW C. REVKINhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/author/andrew-c-revkin/

In trying to clarify what’s known, unknown and learnable about the
possiblecontribution
to global warming from vast methane
depositshttp://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/methane-hydrates-and-contemporary-climate-change-24314790
beneath
Arctic seas, I reached out to a host of scientists working on this
question. I also received a lot of reader input, as you can see from the
comment threads in the string of
postshttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/?s=arctic+methane+climate+siberia
on
this important issue. Here’s a roundup of some additional views from the
scientific community and one filmmaker focused on question:

Raymond T. Pierrehumbert http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/, a climate
scientist at the University of Chicago and contributor to
Realclimate.orghttp://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/raymond-t-pierrehumbert/index.php?s=pierrehumbertsubmit=Searchqt=q=pierrehumbert+site%3Awww.realclimate.orgcx=009744842749537478185%3Ahwbuiarvsboclient=google-coop-npcof=GALT%3A808080%3BGL%3A1%3BDIV%3A34374A%3BVLC%3AAA8610%3BAH%3Aleft%3BBGC%3AFF%3BLBGC%3AFF%3BALC%3A66AA55%3BLC%3A66AA55%3BT%3A00%3BGFNT%3A66A%5C%0D%0AA55%3BGIMP%3A66AA55%3BFORID%3A11%3Bsearchdatabase=site
 (and sometimes Dot
Earthhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/scientists-view-in-climate-action-no-shortcuts-around-co2/),
sent this thought:

Regarding the methane time-bomb issue, I do understand the need to respond
to unwarranted predictions of catastrophe. I’ve made responses of this type
myself. For example I think that Jim Hansen is demonstrably wrong in his
assertion that a Venus-type runaway greenhouse is a virtual certainty if we
burn all the coal; he is right about almost everything and I greatly admire
him, but he is wrong about this.

Countering an assertion like that has the unfortunate consequence that some
people say, “Whew, ducked a bullet there,” and go on to think that the rest
of the consequences of global warming don’t look so bad in comparison with
turning into Venus, not remembering that a lot of those consequences can
still be very bad indeed.

But the clathrate release problem is in a rather different category from
the runaway greenhouse issue. It has to be seen as just one of the many
fast or slow carbon catastrophes possibly awaiting us, in a system we are
just groping to understand. The models of destabilization are largely based
on variants of diffusive heat transport, but the state of understanding of
slope avalanches and other more exotic release mechanisms is rather poor —
and even if it turns out that rapid methane degassing isn’t in the cards,
you still do have to worry about those several trillion metric tons of
near-surface carbon and how secure they are. It’s like worrying about the
state of security of Soviet nuclear warheads, but where you have no idea
what kind of terrorists there might be out there and what their
capabilities are — and on what time scales they operate.

Edward Brook http://www.geo.orst.edu/people/faculty/Ed_Brook, a climate
scientist and geochemist at Oregon State University, sent a comment as part
of a group e-mail exchange that included this relevant thought:

One problem with this discussion is that there is no definition of “time
bomb” so people get confused. It seems quite likely that continued global
warming will increase the emissions of methane from permafrost deposits and
marine hydrates. Some of that will get in to the atmosphere, though … some
will also be consumed in the water column and in soils. This “chronic”
source may increase over time, and affect climate, but for the reasons you
discussed it is likely to be slow, and not a catastrophic risk. Of course
it is still important. For a somewhat dated view of this topic, see
[linkhttp://downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/sap3-4/sap3-4-final-report-ch5.pdf
].

Gary Houser, an environmental
writerhttp://www.climatesos.org/2010/04/mainstream-greens-cave-in/
and
producer of a documentary that’s being made about Arctic
methanehttp://www.590films.org/methane.html,
sent a rebuttal of my initial post in this string, “Methane Time Bomb in
Arctic Seas – Apocalypse Not.” Here’s an introductory riff and link to his
full piece:

As co-producer of an upcoming in-depth documentary on the methane
issuehttp://www.590films.org/methane.html,
I am stunned at how Revkin has dismissed the concerns of those trying to
alert the world to the danger of a methane runaway feedback. It is one of
the scenarios most feared by climate scientists. Once triggered, an abrupt
downward spiral could ensue which humanity might be helpless to stop. When
the factors which could unleash a runaway are beginning to line up, it is a
time for humanity to take a pause from its many distractions and 

[geo] more clarity on the questions surrounding Arctic methane.

[Andrew Revkin]

The researchers who've been out in the slushy waters off Siberia have
offered some clarity after a lot of media torquing.

December 27, 2011, *12:54 PM*Leaders of Arctic Methane Project Clarify
Climate 
Concernshttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/leaders-of-arctic-methane-project-clarify-climate-concerns/
By ANDREW C. REVKINhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/author/andrew-c-revkin/

I’ve been in touch with Natalia
Shakhovahttp://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/nshakhova
 and Igor Semiletov http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/igorsm, the intrepid
Russian researchers, based at the International Arctic Research Center in
Fairbanks, Alaska, who for more than a decade have been leading an
important international projecthttp://research.iarc.uaf.edu//index.php
 analyzing methane plumes rising from the
seabedhttp://www.nsf.gov/news/news_images.jsp?cntn_id=116532org=NSF
in
the shallow Arctic waters spreading north from eastern Siberian shores.
(Here’s video of
Shakhovahttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eD8hU-lbqpEfeature=player_embedded#!
describing
the methane releases and their work.)

As I wrote 
recentlyhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/methane-time-bomb-in-arctic-seas-apocalypse-not/#more-40803,
“Given that methane, molecule for molecule, has at least 20 times the
heat-trapping properties of carbon dioxide, it’s important to get a handle
on whether these are new releases, the first foretaste of some great
outburst from thawing sea-bed stores of the gas, or simply a longstanding
phenomenon newly observed.”

After their expedition this summer, Shakhova and Semiletov presented their
latest observations at the American Geophysical Union fall
meetinghttp://sites.agu.org/fallmeeting/media-center/virtual-newsroom/
in
San Francisco early this month, describing vastly larger methane releases
in the mid-outer continental shelf than they had seen before in shallower
water, leading to a fresh burst of
headlineshttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-sea-ice-releases-deadly-greenhouse-gas-6276134.html
about
risks of runaway warming.

Shakhova and Semiletov, whose earlier analysis of methane in the
regionhttp://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116532
 was published in
Sciencehttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1246.abstract last
year, had been unavailable for comment when I was preparing my piece, as
they had gone on vacation shortly after their presentation. When they were
back on the grid they got my e-mail inquiries and saw the post. Their
response clarifies their differences with other research groups and
emphasizes the importance of critically evaluating scientific findings
before rushing to conclusions, either alarming or reassuring. One clear
message, which I endorse, is the need to sustain the kind of fieldwork
they’re doing.

Whether the issue is tracking Arctic methane or American stream
flowshttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/29/irenes-rain-impacts-come-as-u-s-cuts-flood-tracking-technology/,
there’s a vital need for sustained, consistent observations, but —
unfortunately — there’s a two-edged bias against such investments, given
the appeal of focusing on science’s frontiers and the tendency to target
monitoring programs — which are akin to bridge
maintenancehttp://ascelibrary.org/proceedings/resource/2/ascecp/421/41186/27_1?isAuthorized=no
—
when looking to cut budgets. That’s all fine until the bridge groans and
buckles, of course.

Here is the contribution from Semiletov and Shakhova: Read
more…http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/leaders-of-arctic-methane-project-clarify-climate-concerns/#more-41115

*
*

*_*
*
*
ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax: 914-989-8009
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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Re: [geo] Re: September sea-ice gone by end of century? (or much sooner)

[Andrew Revkin]

Why don't those of you dipping a (cold) toe in this arena enter the Sea Ice
Outlook comparison held each season by SEARCH?

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/guidelines

(I noticed that WattsUpWithThat did~ )

More on that effort from Dot
Earthhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/?s=%22sea+ice+outlook%22

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/?s=%22sea+ice+outlook%22
On Fri, Jul 22, 2011 at 7:19 AM, John Nissen johnnissen2...@gmail.comwrote:

 Hi David,

 I disagree with your estimation of 12 years and suggest 5 years is more
 likely and could even be optimistic, at least for September sea ice decline
 to below the 10% mark.

 The PIOMAS graph, updated to end June 2011 here [1], made me think that
 2016 was the most likely date, fitting a curve rather a straight line
 because of positive feedback.  This is confirmed by Ron Larson from his
 analysis, see earlier in thread.  You have to work out what the y-axis
 anomaly represents.  When we get to -14 thousand km-3, which is a gnat's
 whisker below the line across the bottom of the graph, I estimate that we'd
 have less than 10% of ice volume left in September.  Unfortunately [1] does
 not give you the vital data as to what the total sea ice volume is that they
 are measuring anomaly against!  However, you can see that this year is
 almost as down on 2007 as 2007 was on the 1979-2010 average.  If we assume
 that September 2007 was 40% down on the 1979-2010 average (which was true
 for the area), the 2011 could be almost 80% down.  We only need to reach 90%
 down to have 10% sea ice volume left, that Ron talks about as being a
 critically low level.  That makes the 2016 date seem quite reasonable, if
 not optimistic!

 Peter Wadhams points out that the sea ice thickness is decreasing faster
 than the sea ice extent.  These trends are of course masked by much wind and
 weather variability from year to year, which affects ice flow, not just
 direct melting.  This explains why one can have had relatively little change
 in the minimum sea ice extent since September 2007, although the volume has
 been declining.

 64 trillion dollar question*

 If geoengineering is to have a good chance to save the Arctic sea ice, then
 it needs to be deployed quickly, building up to maximum strength by summer
 2013.  By then the Arctic annually-averaged radiative forcing of the albedo
 flip (as ice/snow reflection of sunlight turns to sea/land absorption of
 sunlight) may exceed 10 Watts per square metre [2].  Could a combination of
 SRM methods, with deployment ramped up as fast as possible, have a chance to
 exceed 10 W/m-2 of negative forcing in the Arctic by summer 2013, in order
 to halt Arctic warming and save the Arctic sea ice?

 Note that cloud brightening and other SRM methods could contribute to
 negative forcing by cooling the water flowing into the Arctic, especially
 the currents from the North Atlantic.  So cooling does not have to be
 directly of the Arctic itself.

 Cheers from Chiswick,

 John

 * P.S.  It's a 64 trillion dollar question if you consider that losing the
 sea ice could have repercussions affecting the total global GDP, which is
 around that value.

 [1]
 http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 [2]
 http://www.mail-archive.com/geoengineering@googlegroups.com/msg00660.html

 [geo] Re: Geoengineering - cloud effects

 John Nissen
 Wed, 10 Dec 2008 13:42:10 -0800
 ---


 On Wed, Jul 20, 2011 at 5:50 PM, David Appell david.app...@gmail.comwrote:

 By my estimation of PIOMASS data, September sea-ice could be gone in
 about 12 years:

 http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2011/07/arctic-ice-is-at-record-low.html


 David
 --
 David Appell, independent science journalist
 e: david.app...@gmail.com
 w: http://www.davidappell.com
 m: St. Helens, OR



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.*

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax/voicemail: 509-357-0965
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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Re: [geo] September sea-ice gone by end of century? (or much sooner)

[Andrew Revkin]

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/22/new-light-shed-on-north-pole-ice-trends/

The bottom line, expressed here before, is that no one should expect to find
much broad meaning in short-term variability in Arctic sea ice — in one
direction or the other. If there is a death spiral, expect a lot of loop the
loopshttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/spread-of-thicker-arctic-ice-seen-last-summer/along
the way. Those most passionately pushing for and against action on
greenhouse gases have a tendency to jump to the National Snow and Ice Data
Center Web site to chart each wiggle.



On Mon, Jul 18, 2011 at 8:41 AM, Ken Caldeira kcalde...@dge.stanford.eduwrote:

 Folks,

 There has been a fair amount of discussion on this group that talks about
 imminent September sea ice loss in the Arctic.

 The attached paper indicates that around half of the normal September
 sea-ice should still be around in the 2020-2040 time frame.

 Boe, J., Hall, A., Qu, Z. Nature Geosci 2, 341-343 (2009).

 I am not saying that the situation in the Arctic is not dire, however, are
 the suggestions that September sea-ice in the Arctic is soon to be a thing
 of the past a bit overblown and without foundation?

 Best,

 Ken


 ___
 Ken Caldeira

 Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
 +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu
 http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab  @kencaldeira

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-- 
*Please excuse typos; as you may be aware, I had a stroke 1
Julyhttp://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/time-for-a-checkup/
.*

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax/voicemail: 509-357-0965
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[geo] enough geoengineering. we just have to engineer ourselves...

[Andrew Revkin]

For those, like me, who need a break amid the recent burst of news on 
climate front, please watch this video and report back if you don't 
chuckle: http://j.mp/dotBall


-- 
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The New York Times / Environment
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Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556
Fax:  509-357-0965
http://www.nytimes.com/revkin

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[geo] more on 2-degree confusion

[Andrew Revkin]

I explored the two-degree issue here a bit.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/the-two-degree-solution/

This also came up in my recent piece on next steps for the IPCC
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/04/science/earth/04clima.html
read some of the comments in the related post:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/03/can-climate-panel-have-climate-impact/


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[geo] Will Russia resist geo-eng efforts now?

[Andrew Revkin]

The big question remains, who gets to set the planet's (or even 
Arctic's) temperature.

Given this news, will Russia resist?


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/science/earth/11passage.html

comments welcome here:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/asia-europe-voyage-via-arctic-nearly-done/

-- 
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Fax:  509-357-0965
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[geo] on monsoons and warming

[Andrew Revkin]

The work I've tracked on monsoon remains equivocal on overall 
rainfall. Interesting 2006 study showed no change in total precip 
last 50 years, but more coming in heavy downpours (familiar refrain).

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/world/asia/01briefs-indiafloods.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/314/5804/1442

So that probably means that any impact from sulfates etc would also 
be hard to gauge at this point.

Certainly there's other work showing that small-particle pollution 
(low altitude) can impede rainfall (both in Amazon and Asia). Stay 
tuned...  : )

-- 
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Fax:  509-357-0965
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[geo] Re: we're engineering the arctic now

[Andrew Revkin]

be eliminated from the planet!  Moi kudzu?  Do I look like a zebra mussel to

you?

For this select crowd, I have come up with a suitable name.  Cutterites.
After the character in the BBC TV series Primeval, Helen Cutter, who became
such a misanthrope she went back in time and tried to eliminate all the
early humans.  I'm sure Helen would not be in favor of continuing the
interglacial either.  And what happened to her experiment in preventative
extinction?  She was crushed by a dinosaur that followed her through one of
her time portals.  Gotta watch out for that technology.  It'll get you when
you least expect it.

Alvia Gaskill
Pro-Human Lobbyist



- Original Message -
From: Andrew Revkin anr...@nytimes.com
To: geoengineering@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, September 03, 2009 3:40 PM
Subject: [geo] we're engineering the arctic now



  http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/04/science/earth/04arctic.html

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/humans-may-have-ended-long-arct
ic-chill/

  we may be able to 'skip' the next ice age in fact.
  would love your thoughts in the comments section.

  --
  Andrew C. Revkin
  The New York Times / Environment
  620 Eighth Ave., NY, NY 10018
  Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556
  Fax:  509-357-0965
  http://www.nytimes.com/revkin

  




-- 
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[geo] we're engineering the arctic now

[Andrew Revkin]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/04/science/earth/04arctic.html
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/humans-may-have-ended-long-arctic-chill/

we may be able to 'skip' the next ice age in fact.
would love your thoughts in the comments section.

-- 
Andrew C. Revkin
The New York Times / Environment
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[geo] whatever you think of orbiting solar...

[Andrew Revkin]

does anyone out there see heat harvesting from parking lots as 
transformational?
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/14/energy-frontiers-space-solar-hot-lots/
weigh in...


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[geo] Is this what an energy revolution looks like?

[Andrew Revkin]

Here's an ARPA-E rejection letter.  98% of those pursuing energy 
breakthroughs rejected by DOE: http://bit.ly/EnergyRejection in first 
round...
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[geo] more on Arpa-E rejection letters

[Andrew Revkin]

The tail end of this post discusses the Arpa-E rejection letters. 
I'll be posting an example on Monday.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/how-many-ds-in-obamas-energy-pledge/
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The New York Times / Environment
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Fax:  509-357-0965
http://www.nytimes.com/revkin

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[geo] Global Hum Report

[Andrew Revkin]

The GHF assertion that specific, or even estimated, death counts and 
costs can already be calculated is what has been strongly challenged 
(and not just by usual suspects). The report (authors indicated 
it's not a study really) didn't count earthquake deaths as 
climate-related. 

It tried (and by several accounts failed) to find an attribution 
scheme for deaths from human-caused climate change by comparing 
earthquake losses to weather-related losses. Kind of like comparing 
rates of highway accidents and bathtub-slipping accidents, in a way. 
Much more here (please read the comments, including from WHO folks 
trying to defend the finding): http://bit.ly/dotWarmDeath

The authors say the disaster issue is red herring because 90 percent 
of deaths occurring from background influence on diarrhea etc. But 
that analysis is also problematic, particularly in trying to 
distinguish whatever's happening through normal climate change vs. 
anthropogenic, I've been told.

Andy
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[geo] the sea-level news

[Andrew Revkin]

Thaat AFP story that made the rounds didn't bother discussing the 
results with any other experts in the field. For a more nuanced look 
at the evidence and conclusions, go here (blog post has link to news 
story):  http://bit.ly/dotSeaRise

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[geo] comment space finally open on holdren clarification post

[Andrew Revkin]

Just in case anyone wants to comment, an alert here that our comment 
function on Times blogs is back up and running after a huge 
tech-quake yesterday. Holdren post clarifying his stance following 
the AP storm is here: http://bit.ly/dotHoldren
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[geo] runaway climate change

[Andrew Revkin]

Who on this list knows why the Arctic warming ~ 8,000 years ago 
(quite protracted and significantly warmer than today) did not lead 
to runaway warming?

  Presumably something kicked in the other direction?

I'm pursuing a clearer picture of lessons from the Holocene and the 
Eemian (the previous interglacial) related to feedbacks and whether 
there are, or are not, one-way doors in the climate system. Leads 
eagerly pursued. ..

Andy

At 5:29 PM +0530 2/2/09, Govindasamy bala wrote:
Runaway feedback means running its course completely. It is feedback specific.

A good example is the presumed water vapor feedback on Venus.
Apparently, earth and venus started with similar amount of h2o.
Because Venus started with much higher surface temperature, the 
evolution of temperature and water vapor never intercepted the phase 
line of vapor and liquid. The climate warmed until all the water got 
evaporated. Basically, there was no sink for vapor which 
precipitation. On earth, this is not going to happen because we got 
the precipitation sink on earth...how lucky we are.

But I guess we do have runaway ice-albedo feedback on earth. we 
could get ice-free planet or snowball earth

Cheers.
Bala

On Mon, Feb 2, 2009 at 5:03 PM, Eugene I. Gordon 
mailto:euggor...@comcast.neteuggor...@comcast.net wrote:


I guess it is not going to end.

A runaway train meets only #2 and even that has to be qualified because the
train eventually runs out of (fossil?) fuel or track. Certainly climate has
run away a half dozen times in 540 million years but always hits a limit
which seems to be 24C except when an asteroid hits. It eventually turns
around after remaining at the limit temperature for many millions of years.
We have been in a runaway mode for the last 18,000 years but with some
superimposed small wiggles in temperature. Without geoengineering the
temperature will certainly get to the 24 C limit.

I think runaway is appropriate for the current situation even if there may
be better suited terms.


-Original Message-
From: mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.comgeoengineering@googlegroups.com

[mailto:mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.comgeoengineer...@googlegroups.com]
 
On Behalf Of John Nissen
Sent: Monday, February 02, 2009 6:08 AM
To: Tom Wigley; Andrew Lockley
Cc: geoengineering; Prof John Shepherd; Tim Lenton; David Lawrence
Subject: [geo] Re: runaway climate change



Dear Tom,

The concept of runaway has certain connotations:

1.  Significant in resultant effect
2.  Uncontrollable
3.  Exponential initial behaviour - characteristised by acceleration of
process 4.  No obvious limit 5.  Irreversible 6.  Rapid.

These can all be applied to climate change:

1.  Significant could be over 5 degrees global warming, sufficient for a
mass extinction event.  Or it could be applied to several metres of sea
level rise.
2.  Uncontrollable could be where anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
reduction would not have a significant effect on the rate of climate change.
3.  Exponential behaviour could be caused by a tipping of some part of the
climate system, such as Arctic sea ice or methane release, where there is
strong positive feedback.
4.  There would be no obvious final equilibrium temperature - mainly because
of the difficulty of modelling positive feedback and its behaviour over
time.
5.  It would be extremely difficult or impossible to reverse processes such
as methane release or Greenland ice sheet disintegration, although it is
conceivable to halt these processes or even reverse their effects
(presumably through geoengineering).
6.  Rapid could be anything from one season to 3000 years, on a geological
timescale.

Therefore I think that runaway captures the semantics that we require for
the climate change that would result from, for example, a massive methane
release, triggered by Arctic sea ice disappearance.  Can you think of a
better word to capture the six characteristics above, especially as
applicable to climate change?

Cheers,

John



- Original Message -
From: Tom Wigley mailto:wig...@ucar.eduwig...@ucar.edu
To: Andrew Lockley 
mailto:andrew.lock...@gmail.comandrew.lock...@gmail.com
Cc: mailto:j...@cloudworld.co.ukj...@cloudworld.co.uk; geoengineering
mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.comgeoengineering@googlegroups.com; 
Prof John Shepherd
mailto:j...@noc.soton.ac.ukj...@noc.soton.ac.uk; Tim Lenton 
mailto:t.len...@uea.ac.ukt.len...@uea.ac.uk; David Lawrence
mailto:dlaw...@ucar.edudlaw...@ucar.edu
Sent: Monday, February 02, 2009 3:43 AM
Subject: Re: [geo] Re: runaway climate change


  Andrew,

  Poor analogy. running does not equal running away.

  More importantly, just because a term has been misused in the
  past does not mean we should perpetuate its misuse (or use).
  If the word is to be used at all (and, as a practicing scientist,
  I never have or will), one should start off by saying that the
  word runaway is open to misinterpretation, that it does not
  mean running off to 

[geo] Black Pickle concept and the Great Restoration

[Andrew Revkin]

Jesse Ausubel discusses the Black Pickle concept for sequestering 
carbon in the sea at the tail end of this updated post:  
http://tinyurl.com/dotUrbanJungle
-- 
Andrew C. Revkin
The New York Times / Environment
620 Eighth Ave., NY, NY 10018
Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556
Fax:  509-357-0965
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[geo] arctic engineering needs and sea-ice science

[Andrew Revkin]

hi all,


I consulted with a few sea-ice wizards on the exchanges here related 
to Arctic trends, and Jennifer Francis at Rutgers weighed in with the 
following thoughts. Note the importance of the boundary layer changes 
as well. There are many important factors besides albedo and ocean 
solar absorption.

Winter cloudiness etc important factor. But also note the importance 
of not over-interpreting short-term wiggles as trends. Much more on 
Dot Earth and in my earlier coverage of the sea-ice question. This 
post (shortcut) is a good starting point: 
http://tinyurl.com/dotIceTrends

Here's jennifer's comment (I sent her that sea-ice graph that was 
making the rounds here)



Hi Andy --

The first figure you attached with the extrapolation from the 2007 
summer ice loss is very unrealistic, in my opinion. Both the observed 
record and model simulations of ice extent exhibit a great deal of 
interannual variability, and most sea ice researchers would expect 
this behavior to continue superimposed on a continuing downward 
trend. Some years the decline will be dramatic, as it was in 2007, 
and some years there will likely be a recovery, as random atmospheric 
patterns act on the ice cover. What's different now as opposed to 2 
decades ago is that the ice is now so thin that any unusual forcing 
-- be it a persistent wind pattern, cloud cover, heat transfer from 
lower latitudes -- will have a much bigger effect on the ice, as thin 
ice is more easily moved by wind and/or melted by increased heating. 
The small ice cover of recent years allows more solar energy to be 
absorbed by the open surface during summer, but exactly how that 
extra heat affects
  the system over the following months is still being worked out. Some 
recent research suggests that during falls after low-ice summers the 
lower atmosphere warms, the atmospheric boundary layer gets deeper, 
and low clouds increase, all of which tend to retard regrowth of sea 
ice in the fall and early winter. It also appears there's a 
large-scale influence on winter weather patterns over much of the 
northern hemisphere. The reason I'm telling you all this is that it 
appears there is no obvious mechanism for the ice to rebound 
significantly unless there is a multi-year period of 
colder-than-normal temperatures, but this is not likely as greenhouse 
gases continue to increase at rates even faster than the most 
pessimistic IPCC scenario.

Regarding water temperatures, the main effect is through the added 
absorption of solar energy in summer, which accelerates the melt 
during late summer. Warmer winter temperatures in the Atlantic sector 
also appear to be responsible for most of the retreat of the ice edge 
during winter in that region, but not on the Pacific side.

Maybe this is more info that you needed and much of it you already 
know, but it's not a simple explanation. Regarding the shipping text 
you sent, it looks like a bunch of hooey to me. 51 ships in the area 
will not have a perceptible effect on the clouds. The good low 
clouds they're talking about are already almost 100% emissive of 
infrared energy, and adding ship smoke to them is not going to matter.

Hope this helps -- Happy New Year!!   
Jennifer

~~
Jennifer Francis, Ph.D.
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University 
Co-Director of the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative
74 Magruder Rd, Highlands NJ 07732 USA -- Tel: (732) 708-1217, Fax: 
(732) 872-1586
fran...@imcs.rutgers.edu | http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/

At 9:14 AM -0700 12/29/08, wig...@ucar.edu wrote:
Re Arctic ice, the issue is not just albedo, but also thermai
inertia. The effective heat capacity of the exposed ocean is
hugely greater than the ice.

Tom.

++



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[geo] stepping back to remember what it's all about...

[Andrew Revkin]

Dear all,

I thought you'd appreciate my holiday post on Dot Earth -- 
http://tinyurl.com/dotEarthrise -- which affords a fresh look at that 
remarkable view a few lucky astronauts have gotten of Earth rising 
over the sterile horizon of the Moon. If you haven't seen the 
Japanese VIDEO version of Earthrise (and Earthset) -- shot last year 
from Kaguya satellite -- you really owe it to yourself to click.

Make sure to click on watch in high quality on YouTube for the best 'view.'

I added the voices of the Apollo 8 astronauts and music by one of my 
Uncle Wade bandmates.

Would love comments, thoughts from you on the blog.

Best wishes for 2009 and well beyond.

Andy
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Tel: 212-556-7326 Mob: 914-441-5556
Fax:  509-357-0965
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