Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-06-15 Thread Marlon K. Schafer (509) 982-2181
Patrick, Scriv and Matt L. on this list are both knocking on the door of 1k 
subs.


Shoot, there's a wisp in Karney Nebraska that put on 1000 subs in just over 
a year.


There are a LOT of 1000 sub wisps or those VERY close to it.  Shoot, I'm out 
in the middle of nowhere with lots of competition and I'm almost up to 300. 
We have no funding and do no advertising.  Business has to fall in my lap.


I totally believe at least half of the pew numbers.

Marlon
(509) 982-2181   Equipment sales
(408) 907-6910 (Vonage)Consulting services
42846865 (icq)And I run my own wisp!
64.146.146.12 (net meeting)
www.odessaoffice.com/wireless
www.odessaoffice.com/marlon/cam



- Original Message - 
From: Patrick Leary [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: 'WISPA General List' wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:35 PM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


30% of what number Charles? How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. 
I

can only think of about 20 with that high a number. I'd like to be able to
toss around a better number if it can be substantiated, even anecdotally 
and

unscientifically like an honor survey.

Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last 
WiNOG

claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) 
have

gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this
passes the sniff test.
  jack


John Scrivner wrote:


Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is
much
bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all

broadband

connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That

means you

guys! Woo Hoo!
Scriv





--
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-06-13 Thread David E. Smith
Patrick Leary wrote:
 Indeed, and the Pew study is very credible, well circulated on the Hill, and
 used frequently as source material for other briefings and other reports.

   
Just  because something is widely circulated among influential people
doesn't make it correct.

I do firmly believe that WISPs everywhere should milk that Pew report
for all it's worth, just don't drink too much of the Kool-Aid.

(Also, Patrick, either your mail system is indulging in necromancy, or
your desktop's clock is woefully wrong, as this email that just made it
to the list earlier today has a Date: stamp from three weeks ago.)

David Smith
MVN.net

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-06-05 Thread Marlon K. Schafer (509) 982-2181



Hi John,

Where are you at on this? Did we ever get a 
press release sent out?

laters,
Marlon(509) 
982-2181 
Equipment sales(408) 907-6910 
(Vonage) 
Consulting services42846865 
(icq) 
And I run my own wisp!64.146.146.12 (net meeting)www.odessaoffice.com/wirelesswww.odessaoffice.com/marlon/cam



  - Original Message - 
  From: 
  John Scrivner 
  
  To: wireless@wispa.org 
  Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:35 AM
  Subject: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
  Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed 
  wireless is much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% 
  of all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
  wireless. That means you guys! Woo Hoo!Scriv
  
  

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread George Rogato

Mark Nash wrote:
I have a spreadsheet that I've developed that gives me 5 years of 
projected monthly costs/revenue/running costs/running revenue/cost per 
subscriber/debt paydown.  It summarizes to 5-year pl, 5-year debt, 
5-year business value (1xannual), 5-year resale value (business 
value-debt).


It does not take into account everything...just:

- Existing subs (starting point)
- average sub monthly fee
- Projected subs/month
- any admin cost per sub that you want to put in
- CPE cost (estimate high)
- installation fee per new sub
- referral/commission/discount per new sub
- cost to sub out installation of new sub
- bandwidth per mb
- subs per mb (auto-calculates in the monthly costs as # of subs grow)
- cost of tech support person
- subs per tech support person (again, auto-calculates)
- as an option, monthly amount per sub to outsource tech support
- monthly overhead costs (advertising, rent, insurance, etc)
- annual overhead costs
- special project income (other income and expenses for the project(s))

That might be all.  Hit me off-list and I'll let you have it, without my 
info, of course.


I've gotten over the idea that cash flow is everything.  Cash flow is 
alot, but not everything.  It took me quite awhile to realize that I 
should put in the info about business value.  This thing lets me play 
with numbers that affect the profit and loss AS WELL AS the VALUE of my 
business, which is important to look at over time.


Mark Nash
Network Engineer
UnwiredOnline.Net
350 Holly Street
Junction City, OR 97448
http://www.uwol.net
541-998-
541-998-5599 fax


I'd take a copy Mark.
Thanks for the offer.

One of these days we ought to take some time to meet each other seeing 
we're just down the road


--
George Rogato

Welcome to WISPA

www.wispa.org

http://signup.wispa.org/
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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Matt Liotta

Tom DeReggi wrote:

Matt, used an example of Vonage, that did not show profits. But if 
that were the case with all investments VCs would not be in business. 
A certain percentage of them do very well and are very profitable. 
Thats what VCs are banking on. Some will be highly profitable.  A 
company that is highly profitable, and does not sacrifice in other 
areas, will most likely sell for higher.  Not in all cases, as 
profitabilty can be used to mislead the status of a company. For 
example if necessary upgrades are bypassed to show higher 
profitabilty, when in truth its neglect resulting in reliabilty and 
performance being sacrificed.  A run down network so to speak. Thats 
why I think there is no real answer on how to evaluate a company based 
on jsut comparing wether a number is higher than another in one 
specific area.


Actually, Vonage is a successful VC investment. They don't have to be 
profitable or even survive for very long in the public market, but the 
fact that they when public allows the VCs to exit with a large gain, 
which is all they care about.


-Matt
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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Matt Liotta

Mark Koskenmaki wrote:


If the FCC had not thrown the 911 monkeywrench into it, I'd have found a way
to roll my own VOIP service and we'd have been selling it at only a slight
markup, just to be an added value to my broadband.

 

The 911 thing is just a barrier to entry that for most markets is easy 
to overcome. Further, there is no reason to only have a slight markup; 
there is real money to be made on VoIP. When your average business is 
paying $0.04 per minute for long distance and it costs you $0.005 per 
minute there is some easy money to be made. Although, I think making 
money on long distance is only going to work for a short time. It is 
also quite easy to make money on lines.


Clearly, bundling VoIP with your data service is a viable way to 
increase your ARPU. We have a wholesale VoIP program for WISPs that can 
help if your interested. We just completed an interconnection with 
Level3 giving access to most of the US from a DID perspective and we 
will soon have support for E911 in most the markets where it actually 
exists. There is still no solution to the VoIP E911 requirement for 
markets that do even have E911 for POTS lines.


-Matt

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Pete Davis

Pete Davis wrote:

Here is an example of a ROI period ending.

I put in a $500/mo T1 and rent a $100/mo tower space. My fixed costs 
are $600/mo
I put in a $1000 AP and router, and buy 100 $200 CPE. I am now $21000 
in the hole.

Each customer is paying me $50/mo. ($5000/mo total)
My ROI is 5 months, and my fixed cost per customer is $6 (upstream 
bandwidth and tower rent), leaving me $32/mo ($3200) after ROI profit.

DOH! - Thats $44/mo/sub profits in my dreamworld wisp.
That's all fine and good if this is your hobby, and you are not trying 
to make a living at this.


I just need 5 of these towers/AP's/model to pay for salaries, trucks, 
replacement CPE, installers, tools, and trips to conventions and trade 
shows.


I also need 3 more of these towers to pay interest on the bank note 
from borrowing the original $21,000, which was more like $200,000 by 
the time we over-spent, under planned, over estimated the demand, 
underestimated the costs, overestimated the employees abilities to 
work, underestimated the damage that lighting can cause, and so on and 
so forth.


I also need 7 more of these towers to offset the cost of not actually 
installing 100 clients on day 1, and not getting $100 tower rent, not 
getting 100 clients per AP, and not getting $200 CPE, and to offset 
the deadbeats who write hot checks, paying the cell phone bill, buy 
the fender when an antenna falls off of the roof during an install, 
buy the insurance to pay for it next time, buy new PCs, put tires on 
the trucks, change the oil, buying a mail server, buying another 
server to remove the spam from the first mail server, buying spare 
servers, routers, tools, and paying consultants when I cannot figure 
it out.


Then I need another 14 towers to pay for the psychotherapist when go 
nuts trying to manage 2900 subscribers, who are all  bitching and 
moaning because their PC has a virus, or their kid is downloading 
porn, or maybe they are getting spam, or they can't get their 
bittorrent client to download more than 500kbps.


I am not there yet. We are still working on getting tower number 7 
online, and installing customer number 350'ish, and I am not on the 
mood altering drugs... yet.


Eventually, there is a model there for making money in this business 
somewhere between the hobby stage and the looney bin.


The ways to do that should be the same as any other business whether 
you are selling internet, real estate, health care, computers, or donuts.


   1: Time is money, so don't waste time or money.
   2. Don't cut corners.
   3. Don't piss off the customers.

Pete Davis
NoDial.net




Travis Johnson wrote:

Tom,

There is no such thing as average profit per sub after ROI period. 
Let me give an example:


I lease all my CPE. It is a recurring monthly debt that will never go 
away. Even after 3 years, when I own the CPE, there will be new CPE 
that needs purchased... and thus new towers, new AP's, new backhauls, 
new routers, new bandwidth, new whatever. Even if I move that paid 
for CPE to a new customer on the edges of my network, there are still 
costs mentioned above for that customer.


Maybe I'm not thinking the same as you, but I can never see an after 
ROI period. It never happens.


Travis
Microserv


Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company 
totals during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th 
year. And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs 
to be spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth 
rate of the company is so much higher in the later year, the 
expendatures are far greater than the revenue comming in from the 
samller customer base taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears 
the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has 
been made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is 
a VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of 
the business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Tom DeReggi

John,

Your responses make sense.

I guess the bigger problem I have is, I jsut do not believe the stats.
I have rarely found that misleading inaccurate information works to one's 
advantage for long, on any topic.

Because eventually the real picture gets disclosed.
I wish WISPs really did have 8% of the market.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: John Scrivner [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 12:50 AM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Sorry TomI am going to drive a truck through your remarks here.   :-)

Tom DeReggi wrote:


8% means...

You do not get preferrential treatment in legislation.


8% means that 8% of the people are using our service which means that our 
politicians have to look at how to serve the needs of those customers. It 
is not about us. It is about our customers. That is the job of public 
servants.



You do not get subsidees to foster growth of a startup industry.


Wrong. Grants, loans, etc. are based on needs of CUSTOMERS not of 
providers. USDA does not care if you get broadband to Farmer Dan via a 
string between two tin cans if it works. By the way, I was the first 
broadband in my town, we are not a startup industry any more.



You get taxed equally as telcos and cable companies.


Do you really think tax policy is different if you serve 8% than if you 
serve 1/2%? I assure you if the broadband tax cometh, you will be paying, 
regardless of how many customers you serve.


ISPs have a viable alternative, so LECs no longer need to share their 
networks with ISPs.


scriv laughing Like ATT is so open with their network? PLEASE!



8% is a HUGE percentage of market share. I'm not sure we want to take 
credit for that.

At this stage I think it could work against us.


There is only good that can come from people thinking 8% of the US is 
getting their service from us. We have been on the radar for a long time. 
Now it is time to deliver broadband over that radar! (That reminds 
me...where is that 5.4  GHz band!)

:-)
Scriv



Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: John Scrivner [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, who 
has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband 
Providers) are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US 
home users. We obviously have been completely ignored in other reports 
and surveys so for once it is nice to see us represented in some 
statistically important degree. I am not really that concerned about the 
exact number of customers. It is just nice to see us making the report 
in some meaningful way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of 
all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
wireless.




Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf 
if

you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and 
you're

not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:



Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?



That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Tom DeReggi

Pete,

Great post.

The other thing that gets to be a problem as subscriber base grows is
You can't be two places at the same time. The average time per sub to 
support them may not be very high, and easilly done with one technician 
based on total work hours in a day.  But failures rarely are courtious 
enough to wait for the previous outage to finish getting repaired first. :-) 
The staffing needs for support can be much higher than expected, if good 
response time is promised or expected by the subs.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Pete Davis [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 12:19 AM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Here is an example of a ROI period ending.

I put in a $500/mo T1 and rent a $100/mo tower space. My fixed costs are 
$600/mo
I put in a $1000 AP and router, and buy 100 $200 CPE. I am now $21000 in 
the hole.

Each customer is paying me $50/mo. ($5000/mo total)
My ROI is 5 months, and my fixed cost per customer is $6 (upstream 
bandwidth and tower rent), leaving me $32/mo ($3200) after ROI profit.
That's all fine and good if this is your hobby, and you are not trying to 
make a living at this.


I just need 5 of these towers/AP's/model to pay for salaries, trucks, 
replacement CPE, installers, tools, and trips to conventions and trade 
shows.


I also need 3 more of these towers to pay interest on the bank note from 
borrowing the original $21,000, which was more like $200,000 by the time 
we over-spent, under planned, over estimated the demand, underestimated 
the costs, overestimated the employees abilities to work, underestimated 
the damage that lighting can cause, and so on and so forth.


I also need 7 more of these towers to offset the cost of not actually 
installing 100 clients on day 1, and not getting $100 tower rent, not 
getting 100 clients per AP, and not getting $200 CPE, and to offset the 
deadbeats who write hot checks, paying the cell phone bill, buy the fender 
when an antenna falls off of the roof during an install, buy the insurance 
to pay for it next time, buy new PCs, put tires on the trucks, change the 
oil, buying a mail server, buying another server to remove the spam from 
the first mail server, buying spare servers, routers, tools, and paying 
consultants when I cannot figure it out.


Then I need another 14 towers to pay for the psychotherapist when go nuts 
trying to manage 2900 subscribers, who are all  bitching and moaning 
because their PC has a virus, or their kid is downloading porn, or maybe 
they are getting spam, or they can't get their bittorrent client to 
download more than 500kbps.


I am not there yet. We are still working on getting tower number 7 online, 
and installing customer number 350'ish, and I am not on the mood altering 
drugs... yet.


Eventually, there is a model there for making money in this business 
somewhere between the hobby stage and the looney bin.


The ways to do that should be the same as any other business whether you 
are selling internet, real estate, health care, computers, or donuts.


   1: Time is money, so don't waste time or money.
   2. Don't cut corners.
   3. Don't piss off the customers.

Pete Davis
NoDial.net




Travis Johnson wrote:

Tom,

There is no such thing as average profit per sub after ROI period. Let 
me give an example:


I lease all my CPE. It is a recurring monthly debt that will never go 
away. Even after 3 years, when I own the CPE, there will be new CPE that 
needs purchased... and thus new towers, new AP's, new backhauls, new 
routers, new bandwidth, new whatever. Even if I move that paid for CPE to 
a new customer on the edges of my network, there are still costs 
mentioned above for that customer.


Maybe I'm not thinking the same as you, but I can never see an after ROI 
period. It never happens.


Travis
Microserv


Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. 
And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be spent 
for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of the 
company is so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are far 
greater than the revenue comming in from the samller customer base taken 
on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears the company is losing money and 
not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Tom DeReggi

Travis,

Excellent point.
We've become victom to that mistake more than once.
But whats also important to realize is that the mistake is not always made 
because someone does not value their time or doesn;t understand your 
arguement.
More so the mistake is made because they under estimated the amount of time 
that will be required to finish doing the solution themselves.

Hind sight is 20/20.
When you do it yourself, even if you lose financially, you've learned 
something, and that has some value to help offset the loss.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Travis Johnson [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 1:09 AM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hi,

I think that's the #1 mistake that small or startup operators make: Time 
is money, so don't waste time or money.


I hear stories of people literally spending hours and hours and hours 
building something because they don't want to pay $xxx for it already 
built. Everyone reading this list should remember - Your time is worth 
something. For some it may be $10/hour and for others it may be $200/hour. 
The question you have to always ask is Can I generate more income by 
doing it myself, or having it already done so I can work on .


Quick example: You can spend 3-4 hours building a new email server for 
your network (hardware cost=$500). Or you can buy a ready to run mail 
server for $1,000. However, if you could generate 5 new clients in that 
same amount of time each paying $40 per month, you just wasted your time. 
The 5 clients will pay for that extra $500 in less than 6 months (after 
costs, etc.) and you will be making more money in the long run.


Time is money... don't waste time. :)

Travis
Microserv

Pete Davis wrote:


Here is an example of a ROI period ending.

I put in a $500/mo T1 and rent a $100/mo tower space. My fixed costs are 
$600/mo
I put in a $1000 AP and router, and buy 100 $200 CPE. I am now $21000 in 
the hole.

Each customer is paying me $50/mo. ($5000/mo total)
My ROI is 5 months, and my fixed cost per customer is $6 (upstream 
bandwidth and tower rent), leaving me $32/mo ($3200) after ROI profit.
That's all fine and good if this is your hobby, and you are not trying to 
make a living at this.


I just need 5 of these towers/AP's/model to pay for salaries, trucks, 
replacement CPE, installers, tools, and trips to conventions and trade 
shows.


I also need 3 more of these towers to pay interest on the bank note from 
borrowing the original $21,000, which was more like $200,000 by the time 
we over-spent, under planned, over estimated the demand, underestimated 
the costs, overestimated the employees abilities to work, underestimated 
the damage that lighting can cause, and so on and so forth.


I also need 7 more of these towers to offset the cost of not actually 
installing 100 clients on day 1, and not getting $100 tower rent, not 
getting 100 clients per AP, and not getting $200 CPE, and to offset the 
deadbeats who write hot checks, paying the cell phone bill, buy the 
fender when an antenna falls off of the roof during an install, buy the 
insurance to pay for it next time, buy new PCs, put tires on the trucks, 
change the oil, buying a mail server, buying another server to remove the 
spam from the first mail server, buying spare servers, routers, tools, 
and paying consultants when I cannot figure it out.


Then I need another 14 towers to pay for the psychotherapist when go nuts 
trying to manage 2900 subscribers, who are all  bitching and moaning 
because their PC has a virus, or their kid is downloading porn, or maybe 
they are getting spam, or they can't get their bittorrent client to 
download more than 500kbps.


I am not there yet. We are still working on getting tower number 7 
online, and installing customer number 350'ish, and I am not on the mood 
altering drugs... yet.


Eventually, there is a model there for making money in this business 
somewhere between the hobby stage and the looney bin.


The ways to do that should be the same as any other business whether you 
are selling internet, real estate, health care, computers, or donuts.


   1: Time is money, so don't waste time or money.
   2. Don't cut corners.
   3. Don't piss off the customers.

Pete Davis
NoDial.net




Travis Johnson wrote:


Tom,

There is no such thing as average profit per sub after ROI period. Let 
me give an example:


I lease all my CPE. It is a recurring monthly debt that will never go 
away. Even after 3 years, when I own the CPE, there will be new CPE that 
needs purchased... and thus new towers, new AP's, new backhauls, new 
routers, new bandwidth, new whatever. Even if I move that paid for CPE 
to a new customer on the edges of my network, there are still costs 
mentioned above for that customer.


Maybe I'm not thinking the same as you, but I can never see an after 
ROI period

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread Peter R.
Actually, Cbeyond originally only sold one product. A dynamic T1. 
Basically, one product offering to a specific target market.  Focused.


- Peter

Patrick Leary wrote:


Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-31 Thread John Scrivner
For a long time WISP networks / BWI / Muniwireless / whatever name you 
want to give our platforms have been completely ignored as having a real 
impact on broadband delivery in this country. We get very little press 
about what we do and what impact we have had for broadband delivery, 
especially in underserved or unserved market areas. I have a had a big 
fear for a long time that the government would simply regulate us out of 
existence if we did not start getting some actual respectable data out 
there that we exist and that we are really serving broadband to people 
in a big way. The actual numbers are probably wrong but I bet we are 
serving at least 4 million people with fixed wireless broadband. That is 
nothing to sneeze at and certainly could justify a claim that we offer 
the true third pipe of broadband in this country. That is why I am 
excited about this report and I feel it is a good thing for us 
regardless of any errors in reporting. Pew is a respectable source of 
Internet market information so I doubt the errors will ever be given any 
real press and even if they did all it would lead to is more talk about 
the degree of impact we are having in delivering broadband. More talk 
like that is free press for us and is good. I tell people often that I 
really do not care if they are talking good or bad about me as much as I 
care that they are at least talking about me. If you are worthy of 
discussion then you are making things happen.  We made the report, I 
feel that is good for us.

Scriv



Tom DeReggi wrote:


John,

Your responses make sense.

I guess the bigger problem I have is, I jsut do not believe the stats.
I have rarely found that misleading inaccurate information works to 
one's advantage for long, on any topic.

Because eventually the real picture gets disclosed.
I wish WISPs really did have 8% of the market.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: John Scrivner [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Wednesday, May 31, 2006 12:50 AM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Sorry TomI am going to drive a truck through your remarks here.   
:-)


Tom DeReggi wrote:


8% means...

You do not get preferrential treatment in legislation.



8% means that 8% of the people are using our service which means that 
our politicians have to look at how to serve the needs of those 
customers. It is not about us. It is about our customers. That is the 
job of public servants.



You do not get subsidees to foster growth of a startup industry.



Wrong. Grants, loans, etc. are based on needs of CUSTOMERS not of 
providers. USDA does not care if you get broadband to Farmer Dan via 
a string between two tin cans if it works. By the way, I was the 
first broadband in my town, we are not a startup industry any more.



You get taxed equally as telcos and cable companies.



Do you really think tax policy is different if you serve 8% than if 
you serve 1/2%? I assure you if the broadband tax cometh, you will be 
paying, regardless of how many customers you serve.


ISPs have a viable alternative, so LECs no longer need to share 
their networks with ISPs.



scriv laughing Like ATT is so open with their network? PLEASE!



8% is a HUGE percentage of market share. I'm not sure we want to 
take credit for that.

At this stage I think it could work against us.



There is only good that can come from people thinking 8% of the US is 
getting their service from us. We have been on the radar for a long 
time. Now it is time to deliver broadband over that radar! (That 
reminds me...where is that 5.4  GHz band!)

:-)
Scriv



Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: John Scrivner [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, 
who has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless 
Broadband Providers) are serving the broadband needs of 
approximately 8% of US home users. We obviously have been 
completely ignored in other reports and surveys so for once it is 
nice to see us represented in some statistically important degree. 
I am not really that concerned about the exact number of customers. 
It is just nice to see us making the report in some meaningful way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed 
wireless is much bigger than what even I thought. According to 
this report 8% of all broadband connections in the US are 
delivered via fixed broadband wireless.




Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at 
http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if

you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
You are right John, that is huge. As you and I have agreed, the old reported
numbers many of us suspected were low due to A) the form 477 only used to
require operators to file if they had 250 or more subs, which meant most
WISPs did not have to file so their numbers were invisible and B) many WISPs
still do not file.

The previous conventional wisdom said that there were only about 500k-1m BWA
subs. Glad to see these new numbers blow that old number out of the water.

Patrick

-Original Message-
From: John Scrivner [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:36 AM
To: wireless@wispa.org
Subject: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all 
broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
wireless. That means you guys! Woo Hoo!
Scriv






 
 


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread George Rogato

Patrick Leary wrote:

You are right John, that is huge. As you and I have agreed, the old reported
numbers many of us suspected were low due to A) the form 477 only used to
require operators to file if they had 250 or more subs, which meant most
WISPs did not have to file so their numbers were invisible and B) many WISPs
still do not file.

The previous conventional wisdom said that there were only about 500k-1m BWA
subs. Glad to see these new numbers blow that old number out of the water.

Patrick


I wonder what it would be like if every wisp actually filed like they 
were supposed to.

George

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread David E. Smith
John Scrivner wrote:
 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is much 
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless.

Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:

 Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
 dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
 such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
 connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?

That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net
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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread JohnnyO
David - I agree with you as well... I would consider this report / poll
to be bogus to the actual #s of Fixed Wireless subscribers. With that
being said, perhaps this mistake will work in our favor :) Or against us
:(

JohnnyO

-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of David E. Smith
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:27 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


John Scrivner wrote:
 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
 much
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless.

Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:

 Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a 
 dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection, 
 such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless 
 connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?

That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net
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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Jack Unger


Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.


There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.


If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.

  jack


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is much 
bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all broadband 
connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That means you 
guys! Woo Hoo!

Scriv





--
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc.
Serving the License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993
Author of the WISP Handbook - Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs
True Vendor-Neutral WISP Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Charles Wu
Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.
   jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
 much
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
 guys! Woo Hoo!
 Scriv
 
 
 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
30% of what number Charles? How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I
can only think of about 20 with that high a number. I'd like to be able to
toss around a better number if it can be substantiated, even anecdotally and
unscientifically like an honor survey.

Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.
   jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
 much
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
 guys! Woo Hoo!
 Scriv
 
 
 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
There's so much sloppy and inaccurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

So true Jack. I can't remember how many letters to the editor I have written
seeking to correct articles. The latest being Friday when a local Silicon
Valley paper (Mountain View Voice) carried a May 26 cover story in its
business section that explained how Google's city wide wireless project in
its home city of Mountain View worked. It said 350 Tropos mesh nodes
...will transmit to one of three aggregation points... What it forgot to
mention is that there are about 50 Alvarion BreezeACCESS VL nodes and those
are what connects to the three base stations around the city. So all the
mesh connects to the BreezeACCESS VL, which is the NLOS metro wide
multipoint backhaul for the project. [It can be argued that the backhaul is
the critical piece since it defines how much capacity is actually available
in the mesh. Also, a high capacity multipoint backhaul like BreezeACCESS VL
requires much fewer total BH nodes, reducing the network CAPEX.]
 
The funny thing is that the picture they carried shows the Google project
leader presenting the network to the local community and businesses and in
the background is a Power Point that has Alvarion's name on it. The slide in
the image says, ...radios connects to the Internet via an Alvarion gateway
that connects wirelessly to a base station.

Fortunately, the Mountain View Voice, as a paper in the tech heart of the
U.S., wants to get it right, so they will print my Letter to the Editor. I
was especially glad to hear that since we have about 170 people working here
in Mountain View!

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.

-Original Message-
From: Jack Unger [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 11:46 AM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.
   jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is much

 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
 guys! Woo Hoo!
 Scriv
 
 
 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc.
Serving the License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993
Author of the WISP Handbook - Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs
True Vendor-Neutral WISP Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
Charles said - P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader,
Motorola Canopy sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone

Probably close to true, though I believe a bit on the high side. We probably
sold around $80M in UL last year out of our $195M total since our
UL/licensed split has historically hovered about 60% licensed/ 40% UL. 
Not bad in the face of massive behemoth like Motorola.

In the total combined market we still lead, but for sure the real test comes
when all major TEMs field their own 802.16e-2005.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.
   jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
 much
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
 guys! Woo Hoo!
 Scriv
 
 
 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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This footnote confirms that this email message has been scanned by
PineApp Mail-SeCure for the presence of malicious code, vandals  computer
viruses.








 
 


This footnote confirms that this email message has been scanned by
PineApp Mail-SeCure for the presence of malicious code, vandals  computer
viruses.




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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Charles Wu
30% of what number Charles? 

At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about 20
with that high a number. 

A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively participate
in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd have
1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.
   jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is
 much
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
 guys! Woo Hoo!
 Scriv
 
 
 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




-- 
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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Charles Wu
snip
Probably close to true, though I believe a bit on the high side. We probably
sold around $80M in UL last year out of our $195M total since our
UL/licensed split has historically hovered about 60% licensed/ 40% UL. 
Not bad in the face of massive behemoth like Motorola.
/snip

So -- you sold $80M in UL last year
What percentage of the was in the US?

Let's gestimate that 50% of your UL sales were in North America (which, IMO,
might be a bit low, since Internationally, 5 GHz and 900 MHz is kinda @#$@
up)
So we're at $40M total
Not knowing you're exact numbers, lets say there's an even split between all
product lines (e.g., Backhaul, 900 Mhz, 2.4 GHz, 5 GHz)
So 75% is PtMP
Now we're at $30M

Now, AP/CPE ratio -- not sure about Alvarion, but I remember from my
equipment distribution days that we used to sell something like a 1:20 ratio
-- Lets assume an average AP / infrastructure price of $2.5k, and an average
CPE price of $500 - so using those numbers...about 20% of your sales revenue
is APs, and 80% of your revenue is CPE

80% of $30M = $24M

$24M / 500 = 48,000 CPE shipped into the US in 2005 alone

How many Alvarion WISPs are there today still buying your product? 

If the number is 1,000 than that's an average of 480 CPE installed / WISP
this year (or ~2 CPE installation / day)
If 2,000, then that's an average of 240 CPE installed / WISP this year (or
~1 CPE installation / day)

Over a 5 year time period (I would bet that many of your customers have been
operating since 2001) -- that's a total of 2,000 WISPs w/ over 1,000 CPE
installed

Now, remember, you're Alvarion, and some of your customers have been
installing these things since 1998...

-Charles


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:44 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Charles said - P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader,
Motorola Canopy sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone



In the total combined market we still lead, but for sure the real test comes
when all major TEMs field their own 802.16e-2005.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.
   jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is
 much
 bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
 connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
 guys! Woo Hoo!
 Scriv
 
 
 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




-- 
WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org

Subscribe/Unsubscribe: http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

30% of what number Charles? 
   



At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names

 


How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about 20
   

with that high a number. 


A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively participate
in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd have
1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 




-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM

To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 




-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.


There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.


If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.

  jack


John Scrivner wrote:

 


Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is
much
bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
   

broadband 
 


connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
Oh I know. Most of these guys have never posted. Many are local telcos, many
are local utilities, some are rural cellular folks. Some are just fairly
well-run start-ups. As I have cautioned many of times before, listers need
to remember that they represent a small percentage of operators out there
and they are not always even representative of the larger group of BWA
operators.

...and folks over 10k CPE in the U.S.? You are right damn few and even fewer
with a single, integrated network being fully managed. For example, Prairie
Inet's network is a conglomeration of discontiguous networks, as is
MobilePro's, U.S. Wireless Online, and the rest of aggregators.  

In the U.S., for us Midwest Wireless (bought by Alltel) is right about
there, AMA*Techtel is over 5k. Verizon's CLEC arm is well over 3k. And there
are a few more around 5k.

I also believe Chuck's Beehive has a Canopy network with about 10k CPE.

- Patrick 

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:31 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

30% of what number Charles? 

At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about 20
with that high a number. 

A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively participate
in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd have
1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Peter R.

Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for 
very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta

Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers 
for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt





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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Dawn DiPietro

All,

Unfortunately as Peter pointed out in a previous conversation about this 
most broadband

consumers do not even know what they have for a connection.

We won't even talk about the difference between the technologies used.

As quoted from the report;

Although speed matters for broadband users, few know exactly what connection
speed they have at home; 17% said they knew their home connection speed, 
while

81% acknowledged ignorance.

Recently announced, AT T has stepped up their advertising campaign.
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/-att-reaches-out-potential-customers-with-flurry-ads-/2006/05/25/1660118.htm

Regards,
Dawn DiPietro


Jack Unger wrote:



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.


There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.


If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the sniff test.

  jack


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of 
all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
wireless. That means you guys! Woo Hoo!

Scriv







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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread John Scrivner
The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, who 
has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband 
Providers) are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US 
home users. We obviously have been completely ignored in other reports 
and surveys so for once it is nice to see us represented in some 
statistically important degree. I am not really that concerned about the 
exact number of customers. It is just nice to see us making the report 
in some meaningful way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:
 

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is much 
bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all broadband 
connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless.
   



Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:

 


Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?
   



That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net
 


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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
Thanks for the analysis Charles ;)

You are right that most of the UL is in the U.S. I do not have the exact
split of how much UL was in the U.S., but you are probably pretty close
except on the split between PMP and backhaul in the U.S. The PMP part is
probably around 85% of the U.S. number.

You are right about our having some folks going back years. Maybe the
longest example would Jason's Midcoast in Maine. Midcoast goes back at least
to 1997. In addition to those, we have a pretty good crop of more recent
operators that have moved upstream, so to speak. A prototypical example of
one like that is Marty Dougherty's Roadstar Internet in Loudon County, VA.
He transitioned upward twice from where he started in terms of vendor
choice. We also have a healthy number of CLECs, especially post-DSL
deregulation. 

To be fair though, there is also a number of smaller guys we have lost,
mostly to purpose-built 802.11 such as old, honorable, but smaller stalwarts
like Allen Marsalis's Shrevenet and Eje's business (who has transitioned
more into a model where he sells products to other WISPs).

Finally, selling through a two-tier distribution model means we sometimes
lose some visibility, so it is not always easy to map out sales 100%. That
said, we have to say, as would Moto, that not all CPE sales go to any type
of WISP (or WiNOG), but rather go as PMP backhaul nodes for mesh deployments
and a goodly number of CPE are now also shipping for public safety
deployments. We now have several dozen cities under our belts and in none of
those are we the edge access technology (except on the public safety side);
we are the PMP backhaul.

Good dialogue going here though.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:45 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

snip
Probably close to true, though I believe a bit on the high side. We probably
sold around $80M in UL last year out of our $195M total since our
UL/licensed split has historically hovered about 60% licensed/ 40% UL. 
Not bad in the face of massive behemoth like Motorola.
/snip

So -- you sold $80M in UL last year
What percentage of the was in the US?

Let's gestimate that 50% of your UL sales were in North America (which, IMO,
might be a bit low, since Internationally, 5 GHz and 900 MHz is kinda @#$@
up)
So we're at $40M total
Not knowing you're exact numbers, lets say there's an even split between all
product lines (e.g., Backhaul, 900 Mhz, 2.4 GHz, 5 GHz)
So 75% is PtMP
Now we're at $30M

Now, AP/CPE ratio -- not sure about Alvarion, but I remember from my
equipment distribution days that we used to sell something like a 1:20 ratio
-- Lets assume an average AP / infrastructure price of $2.5k, and an average
CPE price of $500 - so using those numbers...about 20% of your sales revenue
is APs, and 80% of your revenue is CPE

80% of $30M = $24M

$24M / 500 = 48,000 CPE shipped into the US in 2005 alone

How many Alvarion WISPs are there today still buying your product? 

If the number is 1,000 than that's an average of 480 CPE installed / WISP
this year (or ~2 CPE installation / day)
If 2,000, then that's an average of 240 CPE installed / WISP this year (or
~1 CPE installation / day)

Over a 5 year time period (I would bet that many of your customers have been
operating since 2001) -- that's a total of 2,000 WISPs w/ over 1,000 CPE
installed

Now, remember, you're Alvarion, and some of your customers have been
installing these things since 1998...

-Charles


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:44 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Charles said - P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader,
Motorola Canopy sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone



In the total combined market we still lead, but for sure the real test comes
when all major TEMs field their own 802.16e-2005.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy) have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.

A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.

-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

30% of what number Charles? 



At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names

  

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about 20


with that high a number. 

A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
participate
in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd
have
1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy)
have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the final 
50-ft connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days that I 
need reassurance

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Dawn DiPietro

Scriv,

It is absolutely a step in the right direction considering all the other 
recent reports lump WISP's in with Satellite.


Regards,
Dawn DiPietro

John Scrivner wrote:

The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, who 
has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband 
Providers) are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US 
home users. We obviously have been completely ignored in other reports 
and surveys so for once it is nice to see us represented in some 
statistically important degree. I am not really that concerned about 
the exact number of customers. It is just nice to see us making the 
report in some meaningful way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:
 

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless 
is much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% 
of all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed 
broadband wireless.
  



Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:

 


Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?
  



That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net
 



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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
Peter,

While true in the simple sense, for this industry that is not always the
case at this point. You need to remember that the larger WISPs continue to
convert revenue into CAPEX as they scale and seek to capture new markets. I
know many operators that tell me if they stopped investing in new markets
they would be pretty much instantly profitable at this point. This is
especially true of newer entrants.

Also, when BWA is but a PART of the total business (and that is USUALLY the
case), you need to look at the wireless play within integrated business. For
example, consider the long (good empirical data) example of Midwest
Wireless, based in Mankato, MN. Midwest also has around 400k cellular
subscribers. Interestingly, when Midwest bundles a cellular sub with BWA
service, the cellular churn for that customer drops to almost literally
zero. That has a direct impact on the total bottom line. Similar examples
can be found throughout the industry.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Peter R. [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:13 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

 Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
 quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
 whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
 only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for 
 very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
 Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
 about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
 different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
 $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.

 A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
 customers.

 -Matt

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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
Indeed, and the Pew study is very credible, well circulated on the Hill, and
used frequently as source material for other briefings and other reports.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: John Scrivner [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:31 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, who 
has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband 
Providers) are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US 
home users. We obviously have been completely ignored in other reports 
and surveys so for once it is nice to see us represented in some 
statistically important degree. I am not really that concerned about the 
exact number of customers. It is just nice to see us making the report 
in some meaningful way.
Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:

John Scrivner wrote:
  

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is much

bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless.



Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:

  

Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?



That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net
  

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are 
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of 
service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:


Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

 

30% of what number Charles? 
  

 


At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



   


How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about 20
  

 

with that high a number. 


A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
   


participate
 


in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd
   


have
 


1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 




-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM

To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the enemy)
   


have
 


gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick 

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are 
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of 
service for less than $495 per month.

I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.

A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.

-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

  

30% of what number Charles? 
   

  

At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names

 



How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about
20
   

  

with that high a number. 

A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that
Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively


participate
  

in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd


have
  

1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last
WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Brad Belton
No, not really.  Our average RMC is similar to CBeyond, but the big
difference is how much we keep of that RMC as it compares to CBeyond.
CBeyond is still pumping dollars into their direct competitor (MaBell) and
operators like us that own their own network do not.

I know of ISPs like us all over the country that have similar RMC rates and
have been very successful.  We don't even consider deploying a radio for
less than $200.00 RMC and that will typically require a setup fee that
covers 90% of our upfront costs.  Majority of the time we require a T1
commitment at $329.95 RMC before deploying.

Like I've always said Patrick, the fewer radios we have in the air the
better!  lol

This is not to knock the sub $100 RMC market.  Clearly that is a model that
has also been a proven winner when applied properly.  We work closely with a
dozen or more wISPs all of which have proven business models and all are
successful.

Best,


Brad




-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:15 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick 

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are 
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of 
service for less than $495 per month.

I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.

A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.

-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

  

30% of what number Charles? 
   

  

At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names

 



How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about
20
   

  

with that high a number. 

A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that
Tim
missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively


participate
  

in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd


have
  

1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Sam Tetherow
I know I'm in a more rural area, but the only thing I have 17,000 of in 
my coverage area is cows, now if I could get the RFID thing going and do 
realtime tracking... ;)


 I'm curious how many WISPs would have the coverage area that would 
include even a possible 1000 T1s.  I know that there are WISPs in larger 
metro areas but I've always had the opinion that the larger number of 
WISPs are rural.


As for $495 for a T1, that is more than I'm charging and the 3meg that 
is being sold for $495 is best effort internet service I'm sure.


I'm not saying there is anything wrong with only having high ARPU 
customers, if I could I would, but in my service area I couldn't make a 
business float only offering business services, hell, now that DSL is 
being offered it remains to be seen if I can make a residential and 
business WISP float.


   Sam Tetherow
   Sandhills Wireless

Matt Liotta wrote:
Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are 
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of 
service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes 
for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing 
fiber and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers 
for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

 

30% of what number Charles?  


At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



  
How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of 
about 20
 


with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more 
that Tim

missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
  

participate
 


in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in 
Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 
1,000+

CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of 
these guys

are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 
install /

working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd
  

have
 


1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays 
have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully 
scale

beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com


-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
Our APRU is currently at $669 and we have been raising that each 
quarter. The difference between us and CBeyond is that we don't pay any 
ILEC to delivery our service. Oh, and we don't have 17,000 customers... yet!


BTW, our sales team has found it easier to sell $1000 services than $400.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:


I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick 


-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are 
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of 
service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

 


Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:



   

30% of what number Charles? 
 



   


At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



  

 


How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about
   


20
 

 



   

with that high a number. 


A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that
 


Tim
 


missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
  

 


participate


   


in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 1,000+
CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these guys
are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd
  

 


have


   


1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one out...


---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 




-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta

Two things I would offer in regard to your situation.

First, there are plenty of businesses in rural areas that buy T1s from 
the ILEC right now. There may not be thousands, but it doesn't take that 
many high ARPU customers. Case in point; we recently entered a rural 
market that had two local ISPs of interest. One ISP was considered the 
most successful and had hundreds of customers. The other ISP had only 22 
customers and was largely unknown. The later ISP had more revenue and 
was profitable with far fewer customers.


Second, I am not sure I understand the logic of operating a business in 
a market that isn't favorable. I know plenty of people want to deliver 
underserved areas, but those areas are underserved for a reason. That 
reason could mean a greenfield opportunity awaits or it could just mean 
the area doesn't make economic sense.


-Matt

Sam Tetherow wrote:

I know I'm in a more rural area, but the only thing I have 17,000 of 
in my coverage area is cows, now if I could get the RFID thing going 
and do realtime tracking... ;)


 I'm curious how many WISPs would have the coverage area that would 
include even a possible 1000 T1s.  I know that there are WISPs in 
larger metro areas but I've always had the opinion that the larger 
number of WISPs are rural.


As for $495 for a T1, that is more than I'm charging and the 3meg that 
is being sold for $495 is best effort internet service I'm sure.


I'm not saying there is anything wrong with only having high ARPU 
customers, if I could I would, but in my service area I couldn't make 
a business float only offering business services, hell, now that DSL 
is being offered it remains to be seen if I can make a residential and 
business WISP float.


   Sam Tetherow
   Sandhills Wireless

Matt Liotta wrote:

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There 
are operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more 
of service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes 
for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing 
fiber and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is 
an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they 
have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

 

30% of what number Charles?  


At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



 

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of 
about 20
 



with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more 
that Tim

missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
  


participate
 


in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in 
Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 
1,000+

CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I 
had at

least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of 
these guys

are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Rick Smith

Actually, I've begun to notice the same thing.  A couple of our current
customers 
bought some customized web programming from us for 1000's and we
just took a 
stab in midair... ;) 

-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Matt Liotta
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:04 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Our APRU is currently at $669 and we have been raising that each
quarter. The difference between us and CBeyond is that we don't pay any
ILEC to delivery our service. Oh, and we don't have 17,000 customers...
yet!

BTW, our sales team has found it easier to sell $1000 services than
$400.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich 
monthly rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are 
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of 
service for less than $495 per month.

I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

  

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a $100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that 
makes for an excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely 
providing fiber and big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for

very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.

A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.

-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

 



30% of what number Charles? 
  

 



At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators 
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey 
respondents, so I cannot list names



   

  

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of 
about


20
  

  

 



with that high a number. 

A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 
40+ Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot 
more that
  

Tim
  

missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
   

  

participate
 



in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing 
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern

AZ mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators 
w/ 1,000+ CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town 
too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had 
at least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who 
had purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of 
these guys are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at 
the numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE

/ installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 
install / working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 
2006), you'd
   

  

have
 



1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo, 
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the 
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays 
have over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to 
successfully scale beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Larsen - Lists
Trying to price service like that in my market would result in an ARPU 
of $0.  Been there, done that with the licensed LMDS players that bought 
my first ISP.  They laughed at our 802.11 radios as baby monitors.   
The LMDS equipment is long gone, and unlicensed wireless broadband is 
now the dominant form of broadband in my market.   Chalk up another loss 
for the too-smart east-coasters that thought they would come into 
sticksville and take the market over.


All of the easy pickings T1 customers are long gone, other than a few 
banks and others that can't switch or don't want to switch to anything else.


Matt Larsen
[EMAIL PROTECTED]


Matt Liotta wrote:
Our APRU is currently at $669 and we have been raising that each 
quarter. The difference between us and CBeyond is that we don't pay 
any ILEC to delivery our service. Oh, and we don't have 17,000 
customers... yet!


BTW, our sales team has found it easier to sell $1000 services than 
$400.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:


I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick
-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 3:56 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There 
are operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more 
of service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

 

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes 
for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing 
fiber and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is 
an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they 
have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:



  
30% of what number Charles?  

   
  

At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



 

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of 
about
  

20
 

 

   
  

with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more 
that


Tim
 


missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
 


participate


  

in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in 
Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 
1,000+

CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I 
had at

least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of 
these guys

are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying 
CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 
install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), 
you'd
 


have


  

1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi



Yes. But I do not believe it.
I don't see how the GAO can get it that wrong, less 
than a 10th of a percent compared to 8%.
There is no way Fixed Wireless has 8% of the market 
share.

They must be including subscribers that have 
installed Wifi SoHo routers behind their Cable or DSL modems.

The last thing we want is the world falsely 
believing that we are equivellent providers compared to Cable and DSL, based on 
economy of scale.

Tom DeReggiRapidDSL  Wireless, IncIntAirNet- Fixed Wireless 
Broadband



  - Original Message - 
  From: 
  John Scrivner 
  
  To: wireless@wispa.org 
  Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 12:35 
PM
  Subject: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
  Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed 
  wireless is much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% 
  of all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
  wireless. That means you guys! Woo Hoo!Scriv
  
  

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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Dylan Oliver
On 5/30/06, Patrick Leary [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
You are right about our having some folks going back years. Maybe thelongest example would Jason's Midcoast in Maine. Midcoast goes back at leastto 1997. In addition to those, we have a pretty good crop of more recent
operators that have moved upstream, so to speak. A prototypical example ofone like that is Marty Dougherty's Roadstar Internet in Loudon County, VA.He transitioned upward twice from where he started in terms of vendor
choice. We also have a healthy number of CLECs, especially post-DSLderegulation.Patrick,If you don't mind, please elucidate us (me) on the subject of upward mobility in the BWIA foodchain..I'mintriguedbythetermvendorchoice - whatare the criteria? What are the benefits of assumed standing? Whatpatternsdoyouseeinthesuccessandfailureofnetworkoperators?
 Thanks,-- Dylan OliverPrimaverity, LLC 
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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Sam Tetherow
I am working on the dedicated bandwidth market and was making some 
headway until Qwest rolled out their DSL services at the begining of the 
month and now it is the education process all over again.  Trying to 
explain that 3-7 meg DSL is NOT the same quality as a dedicated 1.5 meg 
circuit.  But they still look at $475/T1 vs $80/DSL and think hey if I 
get only half of the DSL speed I'm still way ahead, and right now the 
DSL is new enough that congestion is not an issue.


As for my market, until DSL was brought in, it has been a profitable 
business, I wasn't planning on retiring on just that business but it was 
paying the bills including my salary.  Now instead of me being the only 
broadband provider that provided any real bandwidth I now have 2 other 
active DSL competitors and several others that provide DSL statewide.  
I'm not saying my market is now unfavorable, just that I'm not sure what 
is going to happen in terms of growth.


   Sam Tetherow
   Sandhills Wireless

Matt Liotta wrote:

Two things I would offer in regard to your situation.

First, there are plenty of businesses in rural areas that buy T1s from 
the ILEC right now. There may not be thousands, but it doesn't take 
that many high ARPU customers. Case in point; we recently entered a 
rural market that had two local ISPs of interest. One ISP was 
considered the most successful and had hundreds of customers. The 
other ISP had only 22 customers and was largely unknown. The later ISP 
had more revenue and was profitable with far fewer customers.


Second, I am not sure I understand the logic of operating a business 
in a market that isn't favorable. I know plenty of people want to 
deliver underserved areas, but those areas are underserved for a 
reason. That reason could mean a greenfield opportunity awaits or it 
could just mean the area doesn't make economic sense.


-Matt

Sam Tetherow wrote:

I know I'm in a more rural area, but the only thing I have 17,000 of 
in my coverage area is cows, now if I could get the RFID thing going 
and do realtime tracking... ;)


 I'm curious how many WISPs would have the coverage area that would 
include even a possible 1000 T1s.  I know that there are WISPs in 
larger metro areas but I've always had the opinion that the larger 
number of WISPs are rural.


As for $495 for a T1, that is more than I'm charging and the 3meg 
that is being sold for $495 is best effort internet service I'm sure.


I'm not saying there is anything wrong with only having high ARPU 
customers, if I could I would, but in my service area I couldn't make 
a business float only offering business services, hell, now that DSL 
is being offered it remains to be seen if I can make a residential 
and business WISP float.


   Sam Tetherow
   Sandhills Wireless

Matt Liotta wrote:

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There 
are operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more 
of service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes 
for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing 
fiber and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which 
is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today 
they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 
1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at 
it a different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would 
only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

 

30% of what number Charles?  


At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
I can't speak directly to your market, but my experience with rural 
markets has been eye opening. I assumed that all the high ARPU customers 
where in the city and the rural markets wouldn't pay for dedicated 
services. Turned out I was completely wrong. Businesses in rural markets 
have the same telecommunication concerns as businesses in the cities. 
The same small businesses don't want T1s of course, while many 
franchises are required to have them. Often times the rural markets are 
screaming for choices since there isn't much if any competition. Voice 
is certainly a killer service in rural markets. We have found businesses 
that used DSL for data, but paid thousands per month for voice. The fact 
that we can bundle voice with our data service enables our bundled price 
to often be similar in price to DSL and POTS lines.


Ultimately, the rural market is smaller, but the market is still there 
for valuable services. The more valuable the service, the more the 
revenue it can generate.


-Matt

Matt Larsen - Lists wrote:

Trying to price service like that in my market would result in an ARPU 
of $0.  Been there, done that with the licensed LMDS players that 
bought my first ISP.  They laughed at our 802.11 radios as baby 
monitors.   The LMDS equipment is long gone, and unlicensed wireless 
broadband is now the dominant form of broadband in my market.   Chalk 
up another loss for the too-smart east-coasters that thought they 
would come into sticksville and take the market over.


All of the easy pickings T1 customers are long gone, other than a 
few banks and others that can't switch or don't want to switch to 
anything else.


Matt Larsen
[EMAIL PROTECTED]


Matt Liotta wrote:

Our APRU is currently at $669 and we have been raising that each 
quarter. The difference between us and CBeyond is that we don't pay 
any ILEC to delivery our service. Oh, and we don't have 17,000 
customers... yet!


BTW, our sales team has found it easier to sell $1000 services than 
$400.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich 
monthly

rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick
-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 3:56 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There 
are operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more 
of service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

 

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes 
for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing 
fiber and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which 
is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today 
they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 
1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at 
it a different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would 
only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:



 

30% of what number Charles? 
 


At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



 
   

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of 
about
  



20
 

 

 


with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 
40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more 
that




Tim
 


missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
 



participate


 


in these list-servs, most of em

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs 
regularly whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a 
lot of customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, 
which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. 
Today they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. 
With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or 
to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of 
$100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:

 

30% of what number Charles?  



At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names



 

How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think 
of about 20
 




with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed 
about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot 
more that Tim

missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
  



participate
 


in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in 
Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators 
w/ 1,000+

CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I 
had at

least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of 
these guys

are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look 
at the

numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying 
CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 
install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), 
you'd
  



have
 


1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 
20-pack


-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people 
nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to 
successfully scale
beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still trying to figure that one 
out...



---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com


-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On

Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:35 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 1:34 PM

To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our 
last WiNOG
claimed on their surveys they had been in the wireless business 
for more

than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be pure-play license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- NOGs instead of ISPs nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the 
enemy)
  



have
 


gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, 
Motorola Canopy

sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone
---
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com


-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On

Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who 
use wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the 
end-users who have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband 
connection to their home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point 
that provides the final 50-ft connection wirelessly.


There's so much sloppy and innacurate journalism these days 
that I need reassurance that the article means what it appears to 
be saying.


If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then 
each WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure 
that this passes the sniff test

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi
Or they measure in ARPU to mask profitabilty. A higher ARPU subs is not 
always more profitable.

Average ARPU also does not show retention rate.
Having an average ARPU of $700 buck does not do any good if they are only a 
customer for 6 months, if they end up being disatisfied after the fact.
Nor is a higher ARPU that much better if the world has to be given away to 
get the $700 ARPU.


Getting an ARPU of $700 for a T1 speed line is pretty darn impressive.  But 
not neessarilly so, if 20mbps links need to be given away to get it, meaning 
less growth possibilty.  And a reoccurring cost following the ARPU longer.


(Not that I'm saying high ARPU is not good.)

I think their are more important factors like,

Time till ROI?
Profit during that time, and anticipated profit per year after that time 
(ROI).


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Peter R. [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:12 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU is 
barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per 
year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi
I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals during 
the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much profit 
will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting paperwork 
(profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling subs. 
And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. And 
lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be spent for 
ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of the company is so 
much higher in the later year, the expendatures are far greater than the 
revenue comming in from the samller customer base taken on the first 4 
years. Thus, it appears the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All pre-existing 
subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been made to replicate 
the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not making 
new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is a VERY 
relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the business 
model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU 
is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M 
per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt





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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi

8% means...

You do not get preferrential treatment in legislation.
You do not get subsidees to foster growth of a startup industry.
You get taxed equally as telcos and cable companies.
ISPs have a viable alternative, so LECs no longer need to share their 
networks with ISPs.


8% is a HUGE percentage of market share. I'm not sure we want to take credit 
for that.

At this stage I think it could work against us.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: John Scrivner [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, who has 
just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband Providers) 
are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US home users. We 
obviously have been completely ignored in other reports and surveys so for 
once it is nice to see us represented in some statistically important 
degree. I am not really that concerned about the exact number of 
customers. It is just nice to see us making the report in some meaningful 
way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all 
broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
wireless.




Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:



Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?



That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi
Are you sure about that. I was told we were not lumped in with Satelite. We 
were not listed as the volume was not large enough to get a percentage 
point.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Dawn DiPietro [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:39 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Scriv,

It is absolutely a step in the right direction considering all the other 
recent reports lump WISP's in with Satellite.


Regards,
Dawn DiPietro

John Scrivner wrote:

The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, who 
has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband 
Providers) are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US home 
users. We obviously have been completely ignored in other reports and 
surveys so for once it is nice to see us represented in some 
statistically important degree. I am not really that concerned about the 
exact number of customers. It is just nice to see us making the report in 
some meaningful way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is 
much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of 
all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband 
wireless.





Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if
you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and you're
not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:



Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?




That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net



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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi
Its also easier getting roof rights, when the request comes from a large 
tenant, who is likely the prospect for  $1000 rates.
I find larger ARPU models are more predicatable, allthough more work is 
involved in finding the prospect base.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:03 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Our APRU is currently at $669 and we have been raising that each quarter. 
The difference between us and CBeyond is that we don't pay any ILEC to 
delivery our service. Oh, and we don't have 17,000 customers... yet!


BTW, our sales team has found it easier to sell $1000 services than 
$400.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:


I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick
-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 
3:56 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while their 
next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is $895, which 
is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers delivering services 
that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are operators on this list 
that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of service for less than $495 per 
month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the scale 
required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:



Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for 
an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber 
and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 
2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality 
of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU is 
barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per 
year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little 
revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in 
recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but 
their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be 
worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in 
now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:




30% of what number Charles?



At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names






How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about


20






with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that


Tim


missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively



participate



in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/ 
1,000+

CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these 
guys

are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install 
/

working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd



have



1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot of people nowadays have
over 1,000 CPE installed, ALMOST NONE have been able to successfully 
scale

beyond the 10,000 CPE level -- still

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
You make a logical point, but the market seems to disagree. Take the 
recent Vonage IPO as an example. By all accounts the IPO was a disaster. 
They offered their shares at $17 and it is now trading $13. From the 
financials it is clear --at least to me-- that Vonage has no future hope 
of profitability. Yet, they managed convince enough people to raise 
$500M and while their market cap has dropped from $2.6B, it is still 
$2B, which isn't bad considering. I mean this is a company that spends 
$279 per customer to acquire each one, which means it takes over 11 
months just to recoup the marketing costs. In 2005, they acquired 
870,000 new customers, which even if they had acquired for free they 
still wouldn't represent enough revenue to pay for operations.


This company simply will not survive and their financials show it. Yet, 
their market value is entirely based on their revenue and its ability to 
grow.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. 
And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be 
spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of 
the company is so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are 
far greater than the revenue comming in from the samller customer base 
taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears the company is losing 
money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been 
made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is a 
VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the 
business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which 
is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today 
they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 
1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at 
it a different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would 
only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt






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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
If nothing else, it is certainly easier to pay for the roof rights when 
the revenue is worth it.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

Its also easier getting roof rights, when the request comes from a 
large tenant, who is likely the prospect for  $1000 rates.
I find larger ARPU models are more predicatable, allthough more work 
is involved in finding the prospect base.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:03 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Our APRU is currently at $669 and we have been raising that each 
quarter. The difference between us and CBeyond is that we don't pay 
any ILEC to delivery our service. Oh, and we don't have 17,000 
customers... yet!


BTW, our sales team has found it easier to sell $1000 services than 
$400.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich 
monthly

rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick
-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 3:56 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average 
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their 
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while 
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is 
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers 
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There 
are operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more 
of service for less than $495 per month.


I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the 
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.


-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:


Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to 
have a
$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes 
for an
excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing 
fiber and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 
2006 2:52 PM

To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which 
is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today 
they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 
1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at 
it a different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would 
only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt

Charles Wu wrote:




30% of what number Charles?



At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
Of these, about 40% responded

Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
respondents, so I cannot list names





How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of 
about



20






with that high a number.
A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 
40+
Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more 
that



Tim


missed)

Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively



participate



in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
customers / running their businesses =)

Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in 
Northern AZ
mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators 
w/ 1,000+

CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)

Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I 
had at

least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of 
these guys

are still operating and in business

If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at 
the

numbers

If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying 
CPE /
installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 
install /
working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), 
you'd




have



1,200 customers

Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything smaller than a 20-pack

-Charles

P.S. -- now another interesting statistics is the top-end of the
license-exempt operator market -- although a lot

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Travis Johnson

Tom,

There is no such thing as average profit per sub after ROI period. Let 
me give an example:


I lease all my CPE. It is a recurring monthly debt that will never go 
away. Even after 3 years, when I own the CPE, there will be new CPE that 
needs purchased... and thus new towers, new AP's, new backhauls, new 
routers, new bandwidth, new whatever. Even if I move that paid for CPE 
to a new customer on the edges of my network, there are still costs 
mentioned above for that customer.


Maybe I'm not thinking the same as you, but I can never see an after 
ROI period. It never happens.


Travis
Microserv


Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. 
And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be 
spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of 
the company is so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are 
far greater than the revenue comming in from the samller customer base 
taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears the company is losing 
money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been 
made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is a 
VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the 
business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 
is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of 
customers for very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which 
is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today 
they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 
1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at 
it a different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would 
only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt






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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi

Matt,

Ok. Let me clarify my statement.

It depends on wether you are valuing a company considering...

wether its your money getting invested or someone elses.

Finding a buyer to pay the price based on no profit potential, and trading 
publically, are two totally different animals.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 10:48 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


You make a logical point, but the market seems to disagree. Take the 
recent Vonage IPO as an example. By all accounts the IPO was a disaster. 
They offered their shares at $17 and it is now trading $13. From the 
financials it is clear --at least to me-- that Vonage has no future hope 
of profitability. Yet, they managed convince enough people to raise $500M 
and while their market cap has dropped from $2.6B, it is still $2B, which 
isn't bad considering. I mean this is a company that spends $279 per 
customer to acquire each one, which means it takes over 11 months just to 
recoup the marketing costs. In 2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, 
which even if they had acquired for free they still wouldn't represent 
enough revenue to pay for operations.


This company simply will not survive and their financials show it. Yet, 
their market value is entirely based on their revenue and its ability to 
grow.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting paperwork 
(profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. And 
lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be spent for 
ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of the company is 
so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are far greater than 
the revenue comming in from the samller customer base taken on the first 
4 years. Thus, it appears the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been 
made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not making 
new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is a 
VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the 
business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for 
very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt






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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi
Yes but Vonage is also a poor example of your arguement as 75% of their 
expendatures is in advertising.
That means 75% of their expendatures could be stopped on demand immediately, 
without reducing revenue.
How quickly could Vonage become profitable, when they reach the approrpiate 
scale, and they stop marketing?
I haven't done the math, but it paints a different picture of potential 
profitabilty.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 10:48 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


You make a logical point, but the market seems to disagree. Take the 
recent Vonage IPO as an example. By all accounts the IPO was a disaster. 
They offered their shares at $17 and it is now trading $13. From the 
financials it is clear --at least to me-- that Vonage has no future hope 
of profitability. Yet, they managed convince enough people to raise $500M 
and while their market cap has dropped from $2.6B, it is still $2B, which 
isn't bad considering. I mean this is a company that spends $279 per 
customer to acquire each one, which means it takes over 11 months just to 
recoup the marketing costs. In 2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, 
which even if they had acquired for free they still wouldn't represent 
enough revenue to pay for operations.


This company simply will not survive and their financials show it. Yet, 
their market value is entirely based on their revenue and its ability to 
grow.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting paperwork 
(profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. And 
lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be spent for 
ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of the company is 
so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are far greater than 
the revenue comming in from the samller customer base taken on the first 
4 years. Thus, it appears the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been 
made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not making 
new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is a 
VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the 
business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for 
very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
$20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
customers.


-Matt






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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Matt Liotta
As I stated, In 2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, which even 
if they had acquired for free they still wouldn't represent enough 
revenue to pay for operations. In other words, if they stop marketing 
they aren't profitable. Worse, their valuation is based on growth, which 
they won't get without marketing.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

Yes but Vonage is also a poor example of your arguement as 75% of 
their expendatures is in advertising.
That means 75% of their expendatures could be stopped on demand 
immediately, without reducing revenue.
How quickly could Vonage become profitable, when they reach the 
approrpiate scale, and they stop marketing?
I haven't done the math, but it paints a different picture of 
potential profitabilty.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 10:48 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


You make a logical point, but the market seems to disagree. Take the 
recent Vonage IPO as an example. By all accounts the IPO was a 
disaster. They offered their shares at $17 and it is now trading 
$13. From the financials it is clear --at least to me-- that Vonage 
has no future hope of profitability. Yet, they managed convince 
enough people to raise $500M and while their market cap has dropped 
from $2.6B, it is still $2B, which isn't bad considering. I mean this 
is a company that spends $279 per customer to acquire each one, which 
means it takes over 11 months just to recoup the marketing costs. In 
2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, which even if they had 
acquired for free they still wouldn't represent enough revenue to pay 
for operations.


This company simply will not survive and their financials show it. 
Yet, their market value is entirely based on their revenue and its 
ability to grow.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company 
totals during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th 
year. And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs 
to be spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth 
rate of the company is so much higher in the later year, the 
expendatures are far greater than the revenue comming in from the 
samller customer base taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears 
the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has 
been made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is 
a VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of 
the business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs 
regularly whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a 
lot of customers for very little revenue. Compare this to 
CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went 
public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is 
$761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth 
$9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they 
pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt







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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi

Travis,

Excellent point. My suggestion does not match your model.

My model is different, as I am the financers of our radio equipment.
I've paid cash in full upfront for every radio.
My cash flow model sucks, but at the end of the first year, its all profit. 
(All our sales must be a 1 year or less total ROI to accept.)


(Well maybe not all profit as there is maintenance and support).

The point I was making is that not all business model have the reoccurring 
cost proportional to the revenue for life.
Some business models allow for teh reoccuring costs to go away after a 
certain time, or atleast not to continue to grow at the same rate as the 
revenue does.
This is when profits are realized.  For example in our business model we had 
huge upfront tower leases. It was tough, and showed negatively on our books. 
But now that I have them covered in my cash flow positive business, I can 
continue to grow my customer base without continueing to increase my tower 
lease costs. Therefore allowing for a higher rate of profitabilty later in 
the road.  Another example is our routers. We spend a lot of money on RD 
for our routers, and in our growth stage we lost financially. Not enough 
volume to recognize the savings of owning the intellectual property of our 
own routers. However, as we grow our client base, our costs for router 
equipment does not grow with it, as they scale to high capacity and the cost 
involved to add new routers is cheap now, since a large poirtion of the RD 
stage is over.


So maybe a better way to evaluate is...

Total profit per sub, based on the life of the CPE???

If you finance your CPE for 3 years, and your business model estimates a CPE 
replacement every three years, you could ask your self what percentage of 
the revenue over 3 years is profit after paying the CPE lease? Or what ever 
criteria you want to use for cost.  When other companiess were looking to 
buy us, we put a higher value on our subs, as it took less cost to maintain 
the revenue long term.


Anotherway to look at it is

You can't look at a company's profitabilty based on totals to date, bundling 
all years.  You must seperate the years. The total profit that can be made 
over 5 years from the subs that were installed this year is This allows 
the consideration of total company costs. But does not allow the higher 
growth rate spending to scew the perception of the companies successes.


Or maybe another way to word this is

Average ARPU means nothing, unless it is disclosed with additional data that 
shows Average Cost Per User.


I don't care how the financial model is structured, as long as the revenues 
and costs are considered in the same manner, and can be compared to 
determine average profit.


Ultimately determining the rate at whcih average profit per users grows or 
drops will define a companioes long term profitabilty or viabilty to stay 
alive.
Its also possible a model will result in a decrease in profit, if retails 
prices drop in the future due to competition, or higher failure rate is 
acheived than anticipated.


This is the whole concept of VC lending. That in 5 years one will ahve 
atleast 500% return on investment. Meaning as a company grows, it has the 
ability to become more profitable.


Matt, used an example of Vonage, that did not show profits. But if that were 
the case with all investments VCs would not be in business. A certain 
percentage of them do very well and are very profitable. Thats what VCs are 
banking on. Some will be highly profitable.  A company that is highly 
profitable, and does not sacrifice in other areas, will most likely sell for 
higher.  Not in all cases, as profitabilty can be used to mislead the status 
of a company. For example if necessary upgrades are bypassed to show higher 
profitabilty, when in truth its neglect resulting in reliabilty and 
performance being sacrificed.  A run down network so to speak. Thats why I 
think there is no real answer on how to evaluate a company based on jsut 
comparing wether a number is higher than another in one specific area.


A successfull business is one that has many areas that are balanced as far 
as numbers reached.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Travis Johnson [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 10:54 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Tom,

There is no such thing as average profit per sub after ROI period. Let 
me give an example:


I lease all my CPE. It is a recurring monthly debt that will never go 
away. Even after 3 years, when I own the CPE, there will be new CPE that 
needs purchased... and thus new towers, new AP's, new backhauls, new 
routers, new bandwidth, new whatever. Even if I move that paid for CPE to 
a new customer on the edges of my network, there are still costs mentioned 
above for that customer.


Maybe I'm not thinking the same as you

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Tom DeReggi

Ouch.
Its got to make you want to throw up, doesn't it.
Its amazing what companies get away with financially.
It makes you wonder, about the intelligence of the investors.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 11:22 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


As I stated, In 2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, which even 
if they had acquired for free they still wouldn't represent enough 
revenue to pay for operations. In other words, if they stop marketing 
they aren't profitable. Worse, their valuation is based on growth, which 
they won't get without marketing.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

Yes but Vonage is also a poor example of your arguement as 75% of 
their expendatures is in advertising.
That means 75% of their expendatures could be stopped on demand 
immediately, without reducing revenue.
How quickly could Vonage become profitable, when they reach the 
approrpiate scale, and they stop marketing?
I haven't done the math, but it paints a different picture of 
potential profitabilty.


Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 10:48 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


You make a logical point, but the market seems to disagree. Take the 
recent Vonage IPO as an example. By all accounts the IPO was a 
disaster. They offered their shares at $17 and it is now trading 
$13. From the financials it is clear --at least to me-- that Vonage 
has no future hope of profitability. Yet, they managed convince 
enough people to raise $500M and while their market cap has dropped 
from $2.6B, it is still $2B, which isn't bad considering. I mean this 
is a company that spends $279 per customer to acquire each one, which 
means it takes over 11 months just to recoup the marketing costs. In 
2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, which even if they had 
acquired for free they still wouldn't represent enough revenue to pay 
for operations.


This company simply will not survive and their financials show it. 
Yet, their market value is entirely based on their revenue and its 
ability to grow.


-Matt

Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company 
totals during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th 
year. And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs 
to be spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth 
rate of the company is so much higher in the later year, the 
expendatures are far greater than the revenue comming in from the 
samller customer base taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears 
the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has 
been made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is 
a VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of 
the business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs 
regularly whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a 
lot of customers for very little revenue. Compare this to 
CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went 
public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is 
$761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth 
$9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU

RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary








Fair question and you are right to call me
on it Dylan. Roadstar went from a wi-fi based product, went from that to another
brand, and from that to Alvarion. Each move was motivated by a desire to much
improve the performance from a reliability standpoint, remote and more
comprehensive management of the network, reduce faults, increase capacity, and
pretty much improve everything so they could scale without scaling the
headaches they were experiencing. As well, it is also true that they wanted to
increase the equity value of the network. They gained all these things in
transitioning to Alvarion. You can are welcome to reach out and ask him if you
wish, while as busy as all of us he is pretty assessable. 





- Patrick











From: Dylan Oliver
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:52
PM
To: WISPA
 General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!





On 5/30/06, Patrick Leary
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

You are right about our having some folks going back years. Maybe the
longest example would Jason's Midcoast in Maine. Midcoast goes back at least
to 1997. In addition to those, we have a pretty good crop of more recent 
operators that have moved upstream, so to speak. A prototypical example of
one like that is Marty Dougherty's Roadstar Internet in Loudon County, VA.
He transitioned upward twice from where he started in terms of vendor 
choice. We also have a healthy number of CLECs, especially post-DSL
deregulation.


Patrick,

If you don't mind, please elucidate us (me) on the subject of upward mobility
in the BWIA foodchain..I'mintriguedbythetermvendorchoice
- whatare the criteria? What are the benefits of assumed standing?
Whatpatternsdoyouseeinthesuccessandfailureofnetworkoperators?


Thanks,
-- 
Dylan Oliver
Primaverity, LLC 




This footnote confirms that this email message has been scanned by
PineApp Mail-SeCure for the presence of malicious code, vandals  computer
viruses.








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RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Patrick Leary
By the way folks, this is a great and meaningful thread on an important
topic.

Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Tom DeReggi [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 8:13 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Yes but Vonage is also a poor example of your arguement as 75% of their 
expendatures is in advertising.
That means 75% of their expendatures could be stopped on demand immediately,

without reducing revenue.
How quickly could Vonage become profitable, when they reach the approrpiate 
scale, and they stop marketing?
I haven't done the math, but it paints a different picture of potential 
profitabilty.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - 
From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 10:48 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


 You make a logical point, but the market seems to disagree. Take the 
 recent Vonage IPO as an example. By all accounts the IPO was a disaster. 
 They offered their shares at $17 and it is now trading $13. From the 
 financials it is clear --at least to me-- that Vonage has no future hope 
 of profitability. Yet, they managed convince enough people to raise $500M 
 and while their market cap has dropped from $2.6B, it is still $2B, which 
 isn't bad considering. I mean this is a company that spends $279 per 
 customer to acquire each one, which means it takes over 11 months just to 
 recoup the marketing costs. In 2005, they acquired 870,000 new customers, 
 which even if they had acquired for free they still wouldn't represent 
 enough revenue to pay for operations.

 This company simply will not survive and their financials show it. Yet, 
 their market value is entirely based on their revenue and its ability to 
 grow.

 -Matt

 Tom DeReggi wrote:

 I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
 during the early growth period.
 But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
 profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
 Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting paperwork

 (profit loss / balance sheets)

 I'll give an example:

 Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
 subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
 But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. And

 lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be spent for 
 ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of the company is 
 so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are far greater than 
 the revenue comming in from the samller customer base taken on the first 
 4 years. Thus, it appears the company is losing money and not profiting.

 When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
 pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been 
 made to replicate the previous years successful model.

 So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not making

 new sales.

 However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is a 
 VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the 
 business model in my mind.

 In other words:

 Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

 Tom DeReggi
 RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
 IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


 - Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
 Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
 Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


 Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

 -Matt

 Peter R. wrote:

 Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
 Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
 Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

 - Peter


 Matt Liotta wrote:

 Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
 quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly 
 whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is 
 only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for

 very little revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an 
 Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went public. Today they have 
 about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 
 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a 
 different way, with 17,000 customers an ARPU of $100 would only be 
 $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in now.

 A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of 
 customers.

 -Matt




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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Pete Davis

Here is an example of a ROI period ending.

I put in a $500/mo T1 and rent a $100/mo tower space. My fixed costs are 
$600/mo
I put in a $1000 AP and router, and buy 100 $200 CPE. I am now $21000 in 
the hole.

Each customer is paying me $50/mo. ($5000/mo total)
My ROI is 5 months, and my fixed cost per customer is $6 (upstream 
bandwidth and tower rent), leaving me $32/mo ($3200) after ROI profit.
That's all fine and good if this is your hobby, and you are not trying 
to make a living at this.


I just need 5 of these towers/AP's/model to pay for salaries, trucks, 
replacement CPE, installers, tools, and trips to conventions and trade 
shows.


I also need 3 more of these towers to pay interest on the bank note from 
borrowing the original $21,000, which was more like $200,000 by the time 
we over-spent, under planned, over estimated the demand, underestimated 
the costs, overestimated the employees abilities to work, underestimated 
the damage that lighting can cause, and so on and so forth.


I also need 7 more of these towers to offset the cost of not actually 
installing 100 clients on day 1, and not getting $100 tower rent, not 
getting 100 clients per AP, and not getting $200 CPE, and to offset the 
deadbeats who write hot checks, paying the cell phone bill, buy the 
fender when an antenna falls off of the roof during an install, buy the 
insurance to pay for it next time, buy new PCs, put tires on the trucks, 
change the oil, buying a mail server, buying another server to remove 
the spam from the first mail server, buying spare servers, routers, 
tools, and paying consultants when I cannot figure it out.


Then I need another 14 towers to pay for the psychotherapist when go 
nuts trying to manage 2900 subscribers, who are all  bitching and 
moaning because their PC has a virus, or their kid is downloading porn, 
or maybe they are getting spam, or they can't get their bittorrent 
client to download more than 500kbps.


I am not there yet. We are still working on getting tower number 7 
online, and installing customer number 350'ish, and I am not on the mood 
altering drugs... yet.


Eventually, there is a model there for making money in this business 
somewhere between the hobby stage and the looney bin.


The ways to do that should be the same as any other business whether you 
are selling internet, real estate, health care, computers, or donuts.


   1: Time is money, so don't waste time or money.
   2. Don't cut corners.
   3. Don't piss off the customers.

Pete Davis
NoDial.net




Travis Johnson wrote:

Tom,

There is no such thing as average profit per sub after ROI period. 
Let me give an example:


I lease all my CPE. It is a recurring monthly debt that will never go 
away. Even after 3 years, when I own the CPE, there will be new CPE 
that needs purchased... and thus new towers, new AP's, new backhauls, 
new routers, new bandwidth, new whatever. Even if I move that paid for 
CPE to a new customer on the edges of my network, there are still 
costs mentioned above for that customer.


Maybe I'm not thinking the same as you, but I can never see an after 
ROI period. It never happens.


Travis
Microserv


Tom DeReggi wrote:

I agree current profit is irrelevant, when considering company totals 
during the early growth period.
But calcualted future Profit clearly is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th year. 
And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs to be 
spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth rate of 
the company is so much higher in the later year, the expendatures are 
far greater than the revenue comming in from the samller customer 
base taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears the company is 
losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has been 
made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is 
a VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of the 
business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Mark Koskenmaki
This discussion always fascinates me, as almost my entire market is rural
and residential.   I have just 3% business customers right now.

The entire rest is residential.   I have never formally surveyed my
customers, less than 10% spend $100 or on internet / phone / data services,
but I would say that unless I was selling cellular, I could not get to $100
per customer.   They just won't spend that much.   Now, if we throw in TV to
the mix, I could get there...   But so far, that's not really been an option
to us small operators.   However, satellite TV is well established here, and
if you're cheap, there's plenty of over the air broadcasting, including
community owned translator system.

Instead, what I'm seeing, is that my customers are dropping landlines, and
going with VOIP voice services, and cellular.This means that most of
them are getting voice, long distance, and broadband for the same or less
than it used to cost for dialup.   In fact, my best advertising has been a
multilevel marketing group selling VOIP in my area, and they suggest my
wireless system for internet instead of cable or standalone dsl.

If the FCC had not thrown the 911 monkeywrench into it, I'd have found a way
to roll my own VOIP service and we'd have been selling it at only a slight
markup, just to be an added value to my broadband.

I learned long ago, that sustainable businesses are built upon offering
people 3 things:

1.  what they need.
2.  Getting thier money's worth.
3.  Priced reasonably.

And I like to add #4...  A decent relationship with your customer - listen,
talk, be a friend and loyal to them.




North East Oregon Fastnet, LLC 509-593-4061
personal correspondence to:  mark at neofast dot net
sales inquiries to:  purchasing at neofast dot net
Fast Internet, NO WIRES!

-
- Original Message - 
From: Patrick Leary [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: 'WISPA General List' wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:14 PM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


 Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
 $100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for an
 excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber and
 big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

 Patrick Leary
 AVP Marketing
 Alvarion, Inc.
 o: 650.314.2628
 c: 760.580.0080
 Vonage: 650.641.1243

 -Original Message-
 From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
 To: WISPA General List
 Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

 Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality
 of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU
 is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M
 per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little
 revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in
 recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but
 their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be
 worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an
 ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in
 now.

 A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of
 customers.

 -Matt

 Charles Wu wrote:

 30% of what number Charles?
 
 
 
 At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
 Of these, about 40% responded
 
 Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
 respondents, so I cannot list names
 
 
 
 How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about
20
 
 
 with that high a number.
 
 A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
 Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that
Tim
 missed)
 
 Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
 participate
 in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
 customers / running their businesses =)
 
 Did you know that in Sedona, AZ alone (middle of no-where in Northern AZ
 mountains), w/ a total population of ~15k, there are 2 Operators w/
1,000+
 CPE? (and there's also cable and DSL competition in town too)
 
 Even at the end of my equipment distribution days (late 2004), I had at
 least 50 customers whom I'd been working with over the years who had
 purchased over 1,000 CPE from me...I know for sure that most of these
guys
 are still operating and in business
 
 If you think about it, 1,000 isn't all that much -- take a look at the
 numbers
 
 If you've been a WISP since 2001, and you've been steadily buying CPE /
 installing 20 net new customers (minus churn, etc) / month (~ 1 install /
 working day / month), in over 5 years time (e.g., today in 2006), you'd
 have
 1,200 customers
 
 Nowadays, w/ $150-$200 turn-key WISP CPE pricing (Motorola, Tranzeo,
 Trango), it's hard to even buy CPE in anything

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Mark Koskenmaki
Interesting.   My highest priced service level is only $65.

I have about 80/20 percent mix  $38 / $25 per mo customers.   I have only 2
that exceed $40 / mo.   This is what my  business model was built on.

I expect that at 500 customers, I will have a really decent paycheck and
pretty solid stream of reinvestment at the same time.


North East Oregon Fastnet, LLC 509-593-4061
personal correspondence to:  mark at neofast dot net
sales inquiries to:  purchasing at neofast dot net
Fast Internet, NO WIRES!

-
- Original Message - 
From: Brad Belton [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: 'WISPA General List' wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 4:56 PM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


 No, not really.  Our average RMC is similar to CBeyond, but the big
 difference is how much we keep of that RMC as it compares to CBeyond.
 CBeyond is still pumping dollars into their direct competitor (MaBell) and
 operators like us that own their own network do not.

 I know of ISPs like us all over the country that have similar RMC rates
and
 have been very successful.  We don't even consider deploying a radio for
 less than $200.00 RMC and that will typically require a setup fee that
 covers 90% of our upfront costs.  Majority of the time we require a T1
 commitment at $329.95 RMC before deploying.

 Like I've always said Patrick, the fewer radios we have in the air the
 better!  lol

 This is not to knock the sub $100 RMC market.  Clearly that is a model
that
 has also been a proven winner when applied properly.  We work closely with
a
 dozen or more wISPs all of which have proven business models and all are
 successful.

 Best,


 Brad




 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
 Behalf Of Patrick Leary
 Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:15 PM
 To: 'WISPA General List'
 Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

 I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
 rates and an especially rich ARPU.

 Patrick

 -Original Message-
 From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM
 To: WISPA General List
 Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

 Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average
 customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their
 starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while
 their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is
 $895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers
 delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are
 operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of
 service for less than $495 per month.

 I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the
 scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.

 -Matt

 Patrick Leary wrote:

 Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have a
 $100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for
an
 excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber
and
 big TDM pipes as a primary focus.
 
 Patrick Leary
 AVP Marketing
 Alvarion, Inc.
 o: 650.314.2628
 c: 760.580.0080
 Vonage: 650.641.1243
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:52 PM
 To: WISPA General List
 Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!
 
 Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the quality
 of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs regularly whose ARPU
 is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M
 per year. That's a lot of radios and a lot of customers for very little
 revenue. Compare this to CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in
 recent time went public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but
 their ARPU is $761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be
 worth $9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an
 ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they pull in
 now.
 
 A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number of
 customers.
 
 -Matt
 
 Charles Wu wrote:
 
 
 
 30% of what number Charles?
 
 
 
 
 At the last show, 500+ attended representing about 350ish operators
 Of these, about 40% responded
 
 Unfortunately, we have a confidentiality agreement with our survey
 respondents, so I cannot list names
 
 
 
 
 
 How many WISPs said they have over 1,000 CPE. I can only think of about
 20
 
 
 
 
 with that high a number.
 
 A recent Tim Saunders article in BBW World alone that showed about 40+
 Wireless Network Operators w/ 1,000+ CPE (and there are a lot more that
 Tim
 missed)
 
 Keep in mind, the majority of these operators no longer actively
 
 
 participate
 
 
 in these list-servs, most of em are busy out in the field installing
 customers / running their businesses =)
 
 Did you know that in Sedona

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread John Scrivner

Sorry TomI am going to drive a truck through your remarks here.   :-)

Tom DeReggi wrote:


8% means...

You do not get preferrential treatment in legislation.


8% means that 8% of the people are using our service which means that 
our politicians have to look at how to serve the needs of those 
customers. It is not about us. It is about our customers. That is the 
job of public servants.



You do not get subsidees to foster growth of a startup industry.


Wrong. Grants, loans, etc. are based on needs of CUSTOMERS not of 
providers. USDA does not care if you get broadband to Farmer Dan via a 
string between two tin cans if it works. By the way, I was the first 
broadband in my town, we are not a startup industry any more.



You get taxed equally as telcos and cable companies.


Do you really think tax policy is different if you serve 8% than if you 
serve 1/2%? I assure you if the broadband tax cometh, you will be 
paying, regardless of how many customers you serve.


ISPs have a viable alternative, so LECs no longer need to share their 
networks with ISPs.


scriv laughing Like ATT is so open with their network? PLEASE!



8% is a HUGE percentage of market share. I'm not sure we want to take 
credit for that.

At this stage I think it could work against us.


There is only good that can come from people thinking 8% of the US is 
getting their service from us. We have been on the radar for a long 
time. Now it is time to deliver broadband over that radar! (That reminds 
me...where is that 5.4  GHz band!)

:-)
Scriv



Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: John Scrivner [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


The point is we have a well known, if not largely credible source, 
who has just released a report that says we (Fixed Wireless Broadband 
Providers) are serving the broadband needs of approximately 8% of US 
home users. We obviously have been completely ignored in other 
reports and surveys so for once it is nice to see us represented in 
some statistically important degree. I am not really that concerned 
about the exact number of customers. It is just nice to see us making 
the report in some meaningful way.

Scriv



David E. Smith wrote:


John Scrivner wrote:

Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless 
is much bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 
8% of all broadband connections in the US are delivered via fixed 
broadband wireless.




Ouch. That study looks to be horribly methodologically flawed.

(It's at 
http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Broadband_trends2006.pdf if

you're interested.)

Their survey required the responders to know what they were talking
about -- if you have DSL, but a wireless router/access point, and 
you're

not all that technically competent, you may well say your laptop has
wireless Internet access when that's not quite what they intended.

Here's the question they asked:



Does the computer you use at home connect to the internet through a
dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection,
such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable TV modem, a wireless
connection, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection?



That question gives me a headache, and I'd like to think I do know what
I'm talking about most of the time.

Note that their survey only had about 1500 Internet-using responders,
which is jst barely enough to be considered a statistically valid
sample for a population of a couple hundred million. (Their methodology
is a bit vague on whether they're sampling all Americans, or just
adults, or...)

Don't get me wrong; it's an exciting quote. I just hope everyone takes
it with the proper perspective, and realizes that it's probably high
by some unknowable order of magnitude.

David Smith
MVN.net


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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Travis Johnson
 year, the 
expendatures are far greater than the revenue comming in from the 
samller customer base taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears 
the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has 
been made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is 
a VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of 
the business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs 
regularly whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a 
lot of customers for very little revenue. Compare this to 
CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went 
public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is 
$761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth 
$9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they 
pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt







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Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread Mark Nash
I have a spreadsheet that I've developed that gives me 5 years of projected 
monthly costs/revenue/running costs/running revenue/cost per subscriber/debt 
paydown.  It summarizes to 5-year pl, 5-year debt, 5-year business value 
(1xannual), 5-year resale value (business value-debt).


It does not take into account everything...just:

- Existing subs (starting point)
- average sub monthly fee
- Projected subs/month
- any admin cost per sub that you want to put in
- CPE cost (estimate high)
- installation fee per new sub
- referral/commission/discount per new sub
- cost to sub out installation of new sub
- bandwidth per mb
- subs per mb (auto-calculates in the monthly costs as # of subs grow)
- cost of tech support person
- subs per tech support person (again, auto-calculates)
- as an option, monthly amount per sub to outsource tech support
- monthly overhead costs (advertising, rent, insurance, etc)
- annual overhead costs
- special project income (other income and expenses for the project(s))

That might be all.  Hit me off-list and I'll let you have it, without my 
info, of course.


I've gotten over the idea that cash flow is everything.  Cash flow is alot, 
but not everything.  It took me quite awhile to realize that I should put in 
the info about business value.  This thing lets me play with numbers that 
affect the profit and loss AS WELL AS the VALUE of my business, which is 
important to look at over time.


Mark Nash
Network Engineer
UnwiredOnline.Net
350 Holly Street
Junction City, OR 97448
http://www.uwol.net
541-998-
541-998-5599 fax
- Original Message - 
From: Mark Koskenmaki [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 9:34 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Interesting.   My highest priced service level is only $65.

I have about 80/20 percent mix  $38 / $25 per mo customers.   I have only 
2

that exceed $40 / mo.   This is what my  business model was built on.

I expect that at 500 customers, I will have a really decent paycheck and
pretty solid stream of reinvestment at the same time.


North East Oregon Fastnet, LLC 509-593-4061
personal correspondence to:  mark at neofast dot net
sales inquiries to:  purchasing at neofast dot net
Fast Internet, NO WIRES!

-
- Original Message - 
From: Brad Belton [EMAIL PROTECTED]

To: 'WISPA General List' wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 4:56 PM
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



No, not really.  Our average RMC is similar to CBeyond, but the big
difference is how much we keep of that RMC as it compares to CBeyond.
CBeyond is still pumping dollars into their direct competitor (MaBell) 
and

operators like us that own their own network do not.

I know of ISPs like us all over the country that have similar RMC rates

and

have been very successful.  We don't even consider deploying a radio for
less than $200.00 RMC and that will typically require a setup fee that
covers 90% of our upfront costs.  Majority of the time we require a T1
commitment at $329.95 RMC before deploying.

Like I've always said Patrick, the fewer radios we have in the air the
better!  lol

This is not to knock the sub $100 RMC market.  Clearly that is a model

that
has also been a proven winner when applied properly.  We work closely 
with

a

dozen or more wISPs all of which have proven business models and all are
successful.

Best,


Brad




-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:15 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

I stand corrected, fair enough Matt, but wow. That's pretty rich monthly
rates and an especially rich ARPU.

Patrick

-Original Message-
From: Matt Liotta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:56 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Again, pointing to CBeyonds numbers it is clear that their average
customer is not buying big TDM pipes or fiber-based services. Their
starting package is $495 per month, which is just a single T1, while
their next package up --which is priced higher than their ARPU-- is
$895, which is just two T1s. That's 17,000 high ARPU customers
delivering services that technologically are easy for WISPs. There are
operators on this list that will sell a customer 3 megs or more of
service for less than $495 per month.

I'm not saying there isn't a market for low ARPU customers, but the
scale required to make any real money seems like quite a challenge.

-Matt

Patrick Leary wrote:

Any operator with some decent residential mix would be drooling to have 
a

$100 ARPU Matt. No matter what technology is being used, that makes for

an

excellent ROI. Those CLECs you mention are also likely providing fiber

and

big TDM pipes as a primary focus.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080

Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

2006-05-30 Thread George Rogato
 is relevant, as far as how much 
profit will be made per sub, and how soon.
Profitabilty can be misleading when jsut considering accounting 
paperwork (profit loss / balance sheets)


I'll give an example:

Lets say a company gets an ROI in 1 year. And had 4 years of selling 
subs. And by the 4th year, profit would be being made from each sub.
But then lets says a company had a 100% growth spurt in the 5th 
year. And lets say there is a 1 year ROI, meaning 12 dollars needs 
to be spent for ever new dollar that is made.  Because the growth 
rate of the company is so much higher in the later year, the 
expendatures are far greater than the revenue comming in from the 
samller customer base taken on the first 4 years. Thus, it appears 
the company is losing money and not profiting.


When in actuallity, the company has record high success.  All 
pre-existing subs ARE 100% profitable, and lot of new growth has 
been made to replicate the previous years successful model.


So yes, profitable books may mean a company is not growing and not 
making new sales.


However, showing the average profit per sub, after the ROI period is 
a VERY relevant bit of information. Its what defines the value of 
the business model in my mind.


In other words:

Forcasted Profit margin based on current years proven track record.

Tom DeReggi
RapidDSL  Wireless, Inc
IntAirNet- Fixed Wireless Broadband


- Original Message - From: Matt Liotta [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; WISPA General List wireless@wispa.org
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Profit is irrelevant for an early stage growth company.

-Matt

Peter R. wrote:


Because number of subs is the measuring stick.
Revenue is more important; but profit is the most important.
Not many can speak to profit, so they measure in subs.

- Peter


Matt Liotta wrote:

Not sure why the number of customers is even important when the 
quality of customers can vary so wildly. I run into WISPs 
regularly whose ARPU is barely above $100. At 1000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 is only $1.2M per year. That's a lot of radios and a 
lot of customers for very little revenue. Compare this to 
CBeyond, which is an Atlanta-based CLEC that in recent time went 
public. Today they have about 17,000 customers, but their ARPU is 
$761. With just 1000 customers, an ARPU of $761 would be worth 
$9.1M. Or to look at it a different way, with 17,000 customers an 
ARPU of $100 would only be $20.4M compared with the $155.2M they 
pull in now.


A WISP would be wise to raise their ARPU as opposed to the number 
of customers.


-Matt








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