[FairfieldLife] Re: Off topic? : recent trends that signal FF housing bubble
Best of luck to you off, may you prosper in the current housing market and may you get your massive hallucinations under control. under Akasha's scenario, not mine --- hahahaha, good one. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Can you bring this thread to Fairfield. ? I think that one of the things that would happen if Akasha's scenario takes place would be that people would be out on the street across the country - can't afford rent, can't afford to buy, can't afford to run a car. Any rentals that work would soon turn to slums since landlords would squeeze as many of the now low paying renters into the houses as possible. Unemployment is high under Akasha's scenario also. So milliopns of people would suddenly not be able to live the life they are accustomed to . There would be not enough money from taxes to pay for the police and army, and the black hole of Iraq would suck up any excess. A break-down in law and order would occur and corruption among police and politicians would be rife. Under Akasha's scenario, not mine, The already millions of dirt poor immigrants in US would now have nothing, but would take the opportunity to re-organize themselves and become a volatile and unpredictable force within the breaking down society. If the US pulls out of Iraq before it is a stable dictatorship again, the middle east will meltdown and oil prices will skyrocket. All the people who have been moving to the East and West coasts of the US, raising the population there, would be in a 1930's depression-like situation. While the now depopulating midwest would suffer loss of income from farming and other business. Oil prices would stifle the midwest to some extent. Next (under Akasha's scenario, not mine), the Chinese would make their move to start to buy or take over parts of the US based on the massive debt the US owes them. The US military would be in dissarray and corrupt due to lack of funding, and a better organised nation will have to take control someohow (directly or indirectly) of the dangerous US armeries. The greatest superpower on earth would have imploded. However (under Akasha's scenario, not mine), the midwest would most likely be the least affected area since it is the least populated and those from the West and East coast, who could do so, would move to the Midwest in droves to escape the chaos elswhere. They would also make life-changing decisions and (under Akasha's scenario, not mine), masses of them would move to Fairfield seeking a better way than before. Thus DIRECTLY impacting Fairfieldin a good way. Fairfielders would welcome them and they would learn the ways of the enlightened and house prices and business across the midwest would take off to be mecca that many east and west coasters would now seek. This is the relevance to Fairfield that Akasha is trying to convey. However, how many people here think that this scenario or a version of it will happen? If you think some of it will happen please pinpoint which aspects you think are feasible. Personally , I am with you, it is not a good place on FFL to discuss in such great swaths of cut and paste articles the hypothetical housing bubble bust, nor the hypothetical bird flu disaster. Off World Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Off topic? : recent trends that signal FF housing bubble
dhamiltony2k5 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:udio. Hi doug, I sense your broad frustration. That housing discussions is filling up FFL may be a bit of an exageration. The recent thread has 18 posts. Hardly competes with Ostrich Meat, and does not far exceed Would You let Gates be Born or Home Recording Studio But I agree, relevance to FF, or TMers lives, (here or there, or anywhere) or spiritual matters are the most sought and appealing topics on FFL. IMO, the potential housing bubble is relevant to relevance to FF, and TMers lives. As I posted yesterday, it could have a sizeable impact on mortgage rates (which will affect the salability of FF housing), national employment and income (which will affect the many FF business that have a national clientele) and potenital in and out migration of FF. On the latter, as home prices in hot markets (West Coast, East Coast, Florida, etc) and quite warm markets (many metro areas) -- people throughout the country have the option to cash out and with the proceeds could buy quite nice -- better tan they left, FF properties in cash. And participate in what you have been nicely pointing out -- an ambiance and community is similar to Boulder, Ashville, etc -- but in a smaller town context. On the other hand, if the bubble deflates repidly (compared to 15-20 year slow swish) homes in many attractive (beach, mountain etc) areas may be at 30-50% of current prices. At a percieved bottom. Many who have cash in FF, may decide to venture out and buy at the bottom of the market. And get some environmental ammenities they have not had in FF. And a rapid bubble deflation could cause some degree of disruption and suffering (nothing of the scale of Off's scenarios). I always thought compassion and assistance was part of the FF seva ethic -- perhaps not. But I get your point. For whatever reasons, you and others percieve the relativly small number of housing posts as filling up FFL. A good scapegoat for the agreed demise of quality of FFL in the past year, relative to its golden years. The current demise of quality of FFL relative to its golden years has made me ponder. It may be time to move on. To find a group more in synch with my interests. I may lurk occaisionally, but for reasons of interest and time, I think I will moeve on. FFL has been great. I have learned a lot. Best of Luck. Yes, you have succeeded to fill up the FFL list with exacting 'almost anything', as the FFL home page encourages. Why is the topic here? Out on the street for a while I ask and talk to a lot of people who do not read FFL anymore because of the reams of unrelated stuff like this. People would be more inclined to come here as a place if it stuck to topic (FFL) a little more, but they tend not to look anymore. Can you bring this thread to Fairfield. Like, is this disparity between rents and mortgage payments why the TMO is converting its properties to cash? Or that some of the meditating community has fled to other places and that some of the meditating community is looking to move here as a place. Is it a reason to dump real estate in FF? Or buy. What is the trend in Fairfield? Is the FF market unrelated local trend or national? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Foreign Investors Lose Appetite for Treasuries
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: This, if a continuing trend, would signal a trend in the (long-anticipated) rise of long term bond rates -- the solution to the conundrum Fed Chariman Greenspan has been commenting on for some time - the flattening of the yield cure -- the rise in short term rates (that the Fed can highly influence) while long-term rates (upon -- which fixed mortgage rates are based -- and the periodic adjustment in ARMS are pegged) are flat or declining Steadily rising mortgage rates may be trigger for housing price deflation --- (the bursting of the housing bubble) given that it has contorted itself to such unsustainable levels. and most have a cap of how much they can rise above the initial rate. So if you have an 8% rate then, under the worst case scenario, your rate would go to 14% and that would be the highest allowed by law. Therefore the mortgage rate increase is not as dire as people think. It is not like your rate could go up to 20% or 30% or something. Are you aware of this? No one is predicting 30% rates. But do you realize what an additional 6 % points would do to the housing market? (btw, my experience with ARMS is the lifetime cap is higher than 6%, but lets use your figures.) Current rates are approaching 6%. So lets look at buying a house with an arm at 6%, and then what happens in 3 years if they rise to 12%. Both to the buyer, and the whole housing maket. Lets assume 20% down, and the buyer maxes out the % of income lenders wil usually allow for a mortgage, 30%. So a bloke making 96k a year, could afford a 500,000 house, if he ponied up 100k down. Monthly payments would be just short of $2400/month. 28,800 annually. Thats 30% of his pre-tax income. Now if his ARM goes to 12%, his payments become 4,114 a month and 49,373. per year. Thats now 51% of his income. A pretty big chunk. If taxes after deductions average about 24%, and he puts 10% in a 401k, then he has about 15% of his income 1 in 6 dollars to buy food, car, clothes, vacations, additional health, entertainment, etc. A bit of a pinch. If the ARMS lifetime cap were 9% -- more real world I believe than 6%, then 63% of income goes to house payments. After taxes and 401k, he has 3% of gross income to spend on food, car, clothes, vacations, additional health, entertainment, etc. But the news gets much worse . When he bought his house, people in his income range could afford a 500k house, with 20% down. If interest rates rose by 6% points, the same range buyers could only afford a 290k house -- a 42% drop. And the same happens to all ranged of buyers. Suddenly, buyers can only afford and qualify for 58% of the cost of a house they could three years before. Thus, they bid at their max. Sellers begin to lower prices to match demand and in time, prices of comps for the blokes 500 k house are now in the $290 range. If he sells, he loses his down payment, plus owes the lender $110k extra. Well, he could walk away you say. Sure. And ruin his credit. And he would still lose his 100 k down. And the lender would forgive the remaining loan of 110k after it forclosed. But the IRS counts that as income and the guy would pay taxes on that 110k. And long term rates that new buyers face are not capped. So if they rose 9 % points over todays rate, buyers would be able to buy only about 47% of the price of a house they could when rates were at 6%. The market corrects, and prices approach 50% of their former recent value. And markets may overcorrect, as people are forced to dump property. Thus prices could even go down further. And all this just from a jump in interest rates. But since the economy has been fueled by spending from home equity loans based on recent appreciation, and construction spending, this would halt suddenly if housing prices drop. The economy could go into a sharp recession. Employment rates would fall. Thus there would be less buyers than before -- driving prices even lower. So the art Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Per recent housing price discussion, a new study highlights three key factors that distinguish the current pruce surge and the traditional housing price cycle -- indicating a potential bubble. --- Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble Washington, DC - Recent trends in the housing market suggest a dangerous housing bubble, rather than a run-up caused by fundamental factors such as higher incomes and population growth, according to a new study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). The report, Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke? The Evidence for a Housing Bubble, cites three trends in the housing market that suggest an unsustainable increase in house prices: 1) A sharp divergence between house sale prices and rents; No, in the past rents were too close to the cost of buying a house, now it is more expensive to buy a house than to rent, and this is a normal market correction. Normal. Huh? It is normal, the market is in equillibrium, when rents = mortgage payments (after tax, after homeowner costs). The fact that rents are at or below 50% of mortgage payments in many areas indicates that the housing market is seriously out of what and a correction is probably to bring prices in line with rents and to bring affordability from 15% in many areas back to 50% or more. 2) An extraordinary jump in the rate of housing construction; Only in parts of the country, where there has been an increase in jobs. Normal. The construction increases have been in areas where housing prices have risen sharply. Contributing to a potential emerging over-supply situation -- that will put downward pressure on prices. 3) A sharp decline in the savings rate, driven by a housing wealth effect. This means people have been drawing heavily on home equity loans supported by increased paper profits in the recent rises equity in their homes. This means people are spending more, as a % of income, thus savings rates are declining -- a bad thing for future interest rates and productivity. This means people have less savings than they had when they were renting and were pouring $10 to 20,000 a year down the drain in rent. People either rent property or rent money to buy property. We are all renters. In initial years of a mortgage, only about 15% of mortgage payments go towards equity -- the rest is interest. The primary driver of equity build up for buyers is home appreciation -- which all the fundamentals in the market point to leveling off or declining. If one can rent the same property for 1500/mo, rather than buy it with a mortgage of 3000/month, the renter is saving $1500 / month. The buyer is pouring money down the drain unless home prices apprciate. But there are strong indications that that train will not be back in town for 5-15 years. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: lets leave the national housing picture to individual writings but NOT this form PLEASE , as NOT of general interest. Perhaps you can simple delete or ignore such if they are not of personal interest. Many posts do not appeal to all readers. Is katrina, the tsunami or bird flu purely a FF issue? Many national and international issues affect FF -- as well as the large number of FFL participants who no longer live in FF. The potential emerging housing bubble and related drivers, could strongly affect FF interest rates, home sales and prices, employment and income levels, migration in and out of FF, gov debt, social security reform and tax rates. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: big snip If one can rent the same property for 1500/mo, rather than buy it with a mortgage of 3000/month, the renter is saving $1500 / month. The buyer is pouring money down the drain unless home prices apprciate. But there are strong indications that that train will not be back in town for 5-15 years. The one thing overlooked here is a measure of security after the mortgage is substantially paid off- In a rapidly developing area, and I know of people caught in this trap here, rentals may be converted to condos, or demolished for housing, leaving the renters, as seniors no where to go, except leave an area where they have established friends and costs. I understand we are all renters, but there is definitely more control over our assets if we buy, i.e. rent money from the bank. Sure, home ownership has other non-monetry benefits. I like owning, and planting a garden, and being able to tear down a inside wall if I want. But ownership has some burdens too. Several times I had job offers in other areas, but moving/ selling my home etc was a big hurdle. Owning ties you to an area. And i currently rent a house now. At about 25% of the cost to buy. The yard sprung a big leak. I was glad to have the owner deal with it. And sure, with the condo conversion craze -- soon to end I think as we sink in a glut of oversupply -- can force renters to move. One has less control as a renter. But we are in a renters market now. When rents are so much below mortgages, it gives renters power, -- and other options. Though, as you point out, it may mean moving out if teh neighborhood. So there are tradeoffs. My main point is that the price apprciation bandwagon may be over for some time -- and that requires rethinking a lot of conventional wisdom and observed longtime trends. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: No, in the past rents were too close to the cost of buying a house, now it is more expensive to buy a house than to rent, and this is a normal market correction. Normal. Huh? It is normal, the market is in equillibrium, when rents = mortgage payments (after tax, after homeowner costs). The fact that rents are at or below 50% of mortgage payments in many areas indicates that the housing market is seriously out of what and a correction No it doesn't. It has always been the case that it is cheaper to rent than to buy. If someone gets a bit better job and perhaps works a bit harder, they may say to themselves it is worth it, so that I can buy my own place and they will go ahead and do it. A lot of people rent because they want quality time and not be workaholics and they are happy that way. Others want to work a bit harder or focus on increasing income, and then buy a house. This is the way it has always been. We appear to be talking two different things. I am referring to the disparity of rent and mortgage payments for the SAME property, the same exact house. On the other hand, sure, one may live in a multi-family apartment, and decide to move to an new neighborhood, with a yard, probably better schools, more square footage, and sure, the mortgage payment will be more than the rent. But the property is also much more substantial. I am NOT referring to this. I am referring to the disparity of rent and mortgage payments for the SAME property, the same exact house. That rents and mortgages would stay sharply diverged in equillibrium defies all economic logic and experience. See the following from the article -- echoed in many other sources: The Divergence in House Sale Prices and Rents While house sale prices and rents have occasionally drifted apart for periods of time, the difference in their rates of inflation from 1955 to 1995 averaged less than 0.42 percentage points.7 The divergence in these two series since 1997 is unprecedented. The House Price Index (HPI) has increased by 51 percentage points more than the rent index over the last eight years as shown in 7 The ownership price data use the home purchase component of the consumer price index (CPI) prior to 1975, an average of the inflation rate in the home purchase component and the House Price Index from 1975 until 1982, when the home purchase series was discontinued, and the Home Price Index for years after 1982. The rental index is the CPI rent index. The CPI rent index includes some utilities, which complicates the comparison during periods of rapidly rising or falling energy prices. This divergence is also readily visible in the metropolitan area housing price data, as all the areas that have experienced large increases in house prices have also seen large divergences between house sale prices and rents. While it is reasonable to expect that rents and house sale prices would not rise at exactly the same pace if there were fundamental factors pushing up prices, rents should continue to rise until they have come close to catching up with house sale prices. This has not happened in the areas with rapid house price increase. In most, the pace of rental inflation has slowed in recent years, and in some of these markets rents have actually been falling in real terms in the last year. For example, in the last year, real rents have fallen by 2.3 percent, 1.7 percent, and 0.9 percent in San Francisco, Boston, and Seattle, respectively. There have been periods in the past in which local markets have seen large divergences between house sale prices and rents. In almost every case these divergences were followed by a sharp fall in house sale prices. As can be seen, of the 20 largest percentage points gaps between the run-up in house sale prices and rental prices, 14 have occurred in the last 8 years. In the 4 of the 6 cases on this list where there was a large gap in the years prior to 1997, there was a large subsequent decline in real house prices. In the case of Boston home prices fell by 24%. In the case of New York, prices fell by 22 percent. On the other hand, prices in Portland continued to rise. However, the initial eight-year run-up in prices in Portland ends in 1995, just as the nationwide boom in housing prices begins. Seattle is the only city on this list where there was a large gap developing between house sale prices and rents, prior to the current run-up, where there was not a subsequent plunge in house sale prices. The evidence in Table 1 suggests that large gaps between the rate of increase in house sale prices and rents were relatively rare, prior to the post 1997 run-up. Furthermore, in most of the cases where such gaps arose in the past, they were followed by sharp declines in real house sale prices. This evidence is consistent with the view that the sharp runup in house sale prices in many metropolitan
[FairfieldLife] Re: Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
off_world_beings [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: We appear to be talking two different things. I am referring to the disparity of rent and mortgage payments for the SAME property, the same exact house. On the other hand, sure, one may live in a multi-family apartment, and decide to move to an new neighborhood, with a yard, probably better schools, more square footage, and sure, the mortgage payment will be more than the rent. But the property is also much more substantial. Oh, ok. All you are talking about is how one area becomes harder to live in for the working people there. This happens in many places. NO. Thats not the phenomenon that I am talking about. I am refering to most major housing markets across the US where there is a strong divergence for rents vs mortgages for the same properties. The divergence is unprecedended. It is is one of the things strongly signaling a leveling or decline in US housing prices -- at least in major west coast, east coast and florida markets. This and other factors are: 1) Unprecedented divergence of rent from mortgages (for gpropgaerty) 2) Unprecedented lack of affordibility of housing. In the SF Bay area only 15% of new buyers qualify for the median priced home.) 3) Unprecedented levels of new construction in major markets which ia not tied to population growth. 4) Unprecedented holdings of 10 year Treasuries -- the bench mark for US mortgage rates by foreign investors, the leading one being the Chinese -- who are begining low reduce holdings, which will result in higher mortgage rates. 5) Unprecedented use creative financing for home buyers -- which makes them very vulnerable to interest rate increases. 6) Leveling or declining prices in major housing markets beginning. The Lake District in England is pretty much impossible for anyone not on a fairly high income to live there now. They would have to commute. So what? This has little or nothing to what I am referring to. Nothing new in this phenomena. Happens in US also. But it is not an across the board National phenomena, What I am referring to is across the board in major markets. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Fiscal train wreck feared
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On the cover of my local newspaper today (big city in a big state) is the headline, Fiscal train wreck feared: Experts say lurking U.S. crisis may spur market plunge, pension losses, lower standard of living. Reported on CNN this afternoon as well, very gloomily. Yes. Following is one of the gloomiest, yet most credibly sourced (the people cited for comments) on the economy -- the housing bubble being the major anchor downward. -- http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/2005-1315-wallmain.html Housing bubble's burst could cost 1 million jobs and cause a recession, experts say NEW YORK Much of the nation has had a lovely real estate boom for the past five years, but the house party is almost over and the cleanup won't be pretty. That's the word from economists and investors who have watched housing prices march ever higher. The collapse of the housing bubble will throw the economy into a recession, and quite likely a severe recession, warned a July report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. In recent weeks, many major investment firms have concurred. Said a Lehman Brothers report, (A) turn in the housing market is central to our economic forecast. The demographic story behind the housing market boom, as we always thought, was a giant hoax, wrote Merrill Lynch Co.'s North American Economist, David Rosenberg, in a recent report. If housing prices decline sharply, the effects could be broad. Lehman estimates one-third of the past year's U.S. economic growth was a consequence of the housing boom. Housing construction is equal to 5 percent of the national economy. A downturn in housing could mean more than 1.3 million lost jobs, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts, bumping up the national unemployment rate by 1 percent and the unemployment rate in house-mad California by 2 percent. Those numbers don't include likely job cuts in housing-dependent businesses, such as banking, furniture and building materials. The Center for Economic and Policy Research predicts worse, saying a bubble burst would mean the loss of 5 million to 6.3 million jobs. The housing run-up has financed consumer spending, creating more than $5 trillion in bubble wealth, the center estimates. Consumers have used cash-out mortgages to pay for everything from new kitchens to college tuition. A final nightmare scenario: A federal bailout of the mortgage market is likely if housing crashes, the center predicts. So, if corporate pension funds continue to falter and this dire prediction does come true, the Feds could conceivably be holding your mortgage and your pension. While there's disagreement on what a downturn will mean, it's widely held that a number of factors could bring prices down. A decline in prices will track interest rates: If rates go up sharply, housing prices will plummet, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, an independent provider of financial research. If rates increase slowly, housing prices may ease gradually. Others point to simple supply and demand. Bubbles have their own psychology a neighbor tells you at a party that her house has tripled in value and you feel like an idiot for renting but supply and demand operates on logic, which has to kick in at some point. The supply and demand picture for housing looks out of whack. For six straight months, ending in September, builders started work on more than 2 million new homes. This has only happened three other times in the postwar period, according to Merrill Lynch: 1971 to 1973, 1977 to 1978 and early 1984. Those periods were fundamentally different from today in at least one respect: More people were forming households. Household formation is the growth rate in the number of households and it's boosted by new immigration and twenty-somethings leaving their parents' homes. It is currently half what it was for most of those peak periods. At no time in the past three decades has the gap between household formation and housing starts been as wide as it has been over the past 12 to 24 months, Rosenberg wrote. We've become accustomed to hearing about how housing is in a new paradigm, that the fundamentals are sound, so on and so forth. But please, just don't tell me that the sector has managed to divorce itself from supply and demand realities. He points out that the number of households in the group most likely to buy a home, 25- to 44-year-olds, fell 2 percent last year, a record decline. Another indicator, unsold homes sitting on the market, also points down. The ratio of inventories to sales has been rising rapidly in recent months and now stands at its highest level since 1996, according to Wachovia Corp. Rents provide more evidence of an imbalance between supply and demand. Since World War II ended, sale prices for homes have generally kept
[FairfieldLife] Re: Fiscal train wreck feared
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On the cover of my local newspaper today (big city in a big state) is the headline, Fiscal train wreck feared: Experts say lurking U.S. crisis may spur market plunge, pension losses, lower standard of living. Reported on CNN this afternoon as well, very gloomily. Yes, the news organizations thrive on conflict and failure. All of this; the 'bird flu', and bad this and bad that, and be afraid of this and be afraid of that, is so *incredibly* selective. ,,, I'm declaring it a massive conspiracy of muddy consciousness; the hideousness of small minds. Not to ignore what is, but to no longer blow it out of proportion, see ourselves so often as powerless victims, as occupants of a large, fearful cesspool, as 90% goners. Well, that doesnt mean there are no large global problems. One can stick their head in the sand of bliss (oh, just feel the bliss) or attribute them to neo-con conspiracies (the Rumsfeld profit scam from bird flu is one of the funnier from the aluminum beanie crowd) OR, recognize or at least be cognizant of some real threats. Bliss can still be maintained with the recognition of national and gloabal scale the threats. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents
The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents Joshua Gallin, Federal Reserve Board February 2005 Abstract I show that when house prices are high relative to rents (that is, when the rent-price ratio is low) changes in real rents tend to be larger than usual and changes in real prices tend to be smaller than usual. Standard error-correction models provide inconclusive results about the predictive power of the rent-price ratio at a quarterly frequency. I use a long-horizon regression approach to show that the rent-price ratio helps predict changes in real rents and real prices over three-year periods. This result withstands the inclusion of a measure of the user cost of capital. I show that a long-horizon regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk. I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to the view that the rent-price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the housing market. http://www.frbatlanta.org/news/conferen/housing2005/gallin.pdf Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, L B Shriver [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip As noted, Shankar had broken with the TMO sometime not long prior to 1994, so the sweet poison warning would have had to have been issued at some point in between then and 1998. 1993 at the DC course. L B S Born in 1956 in Papanasam, India, His Holiness Sri Sri Ravi Shankar studied with many renowned spiritual masters and became a scholar of Vedic Literature. By the age of seventeen, he obtained an Advanced Degree in Modern Physics. In 1982, His Holiness Sri Sri Ravi Shankar founded the Art of Living Foundation http://www.artofliving.org/founder.html In 1982, he started the Art of Living Foundation, a United Nations NGO and introduced to the world 'Sudarshan Kriya technique'a unique breathing process, which removes stress and negative toxins from the body by rejuvenating each and every cell. The Foundation aims at fostering health at every conceivable human level-mental, physical, emotional as well as spiritual. http://www.webindia123.com/personal/religious/sriravi.htm I took his basic course with him in 1994 or 95. By then, it was quite a mature movement -- in that some friends had been to india with him 4-5 years or more previously, lots of people on courses, including many former initiators, had been with him for a long time -- 6,7 years + Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Sugar-Coated Poison: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Or were there specifics with regard to the sugar coated poison thing? Hell of a label by the way... Who does the poison kill? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Directory of Active Fairfield Spiritual Practice Groups
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Directory of Active Fairfield Spiritual Practice Groups Outside of Fairfield, people intently ask, ³What is going on in Fairfield?² The spiritual, utopian side of Fairfield is something they are wondering about. Fairfield has become recognized as a spiritual Mecca of sorts, ranking with Sedona, Arizona, Boulder and Crestone, Colorado, Ashville, North Carolina and the like. Though, for better or worse, FF is not listed in Hippie Havens, but all of the above are. Regardless, it provides some insight, or at least POVs about the above places and many more. http://www.hippy.com/havens.htm Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] The Days of Our Lives (Youth)
http://www.hippy.com/php/article-15.html I find timelines can be interesting -- jogging memories of what we were doing when these events occurred -- and can help in reconstrucing other timelines like the TMO (this course had to be near these dates because I remember the announcement about ... dying. A few key years (many more on link) 1967 Jan 14 - Gathering of the Tribes, First Human Be-In, 20,000, S.F. Jan 27 - US, USSR, UK sign treaty banning nuclear weapons in space Feb - 25,000 US troops sent to Cambodian border Feb - Beatles release Strawberry Fields Forever, Penny Lane, Michelle, Yesterday Mar - Scientist report LSD causes chromosome damage (never validated). Mar - The Berkeley Barb starts the smokable banana rumor (based upon Donovan's song Mellow Yellow) Mar 3 - Alice B. Toklas dies Mar 18 - First U.S. supertanker wreck. Torrey Canyon spills 90,000 tons of oil onto English shores Mar 26 - Be-In at Central Park in NY. 10,000 attend Apr 5 - Grayline starts hippie tours of Haight/Ashbury Apr 10 - Vietnam Week starts. Draft card burnings and anti-draft demonstrations Apr 15 - Anti-Vietnam War protest. 400,000 march from Central Park to UN. Speeches by Martin Luther King, Stokely Carmichael and Dr. Benjamin Spock May - Paul McCartney announces that all the Beatles have dropped acid. May 19 - First U.S. air strike on Hanoi May 20 - Flower Power Day in NYC 1967 Jun 2 - Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band album by the Beatles released. Jun 16 - Monterey Pop Festival Jun 21 - Summer Solstice Party in Golden Gate Park Jun 25 - Beatles sing All You Need Is Love on TV 1967 Jun 30 - 448,400 US troops now in Vietnam July - The Summer of Love in San Francisco July - Summer of Rioting in the US. Blacks take to the streets in Chicago, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Baltimore July 1 - Sgt. Pepper hits #1 July 11 - Newark riots start long hot summer July 24 - 43 Die in Detroit rioting, worst in U.S. history July 26 - H. Rap Brown arrested for inciting a riot in Maryland July 29 - Door's Light My Fire and Procol Harem's Whiter Shade of Pale vie for #1 Aug 26 - Jimi Hendrix's Are You Experienced hits the charts Aug 27 - Beatles in India with Maharishi informed of Brian Epstein's death Sept - Richard Alpert meets Bhagwan Dass at the Blue Tibetan in Katmandu, stays in India follows him until he meets his guru. Sept 15 - Donovan performs at the Hollywood Bowl Oct 3 - Woody Guthrie dies Oct 8 - Che Guevarra killed in Bolivia by US-trained troops Oct 12 - Big Brother and the Holding Company's Cheap Thrills with Janis Joplin at top of LP charts. Oct 20 - Seven KKK members convicted of conspiracy in 1964 murders of three civil rights worker Oct 21-22 - Anti-war protesters storm the Pentagon Oct 21 - Diggers exorcise the Pentagon. 35,000 Demonstrate, 647 arrested Oct 26 - Draft deferments eliminated for those who violate draft laws or interfere with recruitment Nov 14 - Air Quality Act provides $428 million to fight air pollution Nov 20 - National Commission on Product Safety established Dec - Beatles release Magical Mystery Tour Dec - 486,000 American troops in Vietnam, of the 15,000 killed to date, 60% died in 1967. Dec - Stop the Draft movement organized by 40 antiwar groups, nationwide protests ensue. Dec 5 - 1000 antiwar protesters try to close NYC induction center. 585 arrested including Allen Ginsberg and Dr. Benjamin Spock Dec 5 - Beatles open Apple Shop in London Dec 8 - Otis Redding records Dock of the Bay Dec 10 - Otis Redding dies in plane crash Dec 22 - Owsley busted, stops making acid Dec 31 - Abbie Hoffman, Jerry Rubin, Paul Krassner, Dick Gregory, friends pronounce themselves Yippies 1968 Jan 16 - Youth International Party (Yippies) founded Jan 18 - Eartha Kitt visiting LBJ at White House speaks out against the war Jan 22 - B-52 carrying H-bomb crashes in Greenland Jan 23 - USS Pueblo seized by Korea Jan 31 - Viet Cong launch Tet Offensive Feb - Timothy Leary evicted from Millbrook house Feb - Beatles go to India to visit Maharishi Mahesh Yogi at Rishikesh on the Ganges river. Mia Farrow, Donovan follow. Feb 8 - George Wallace announce candidacy for President on law and order platform Mar 12 - Eugene McCarthy wins 42% of New Hampshire vote in presidential primary Mar 16 - My Lai massacre 200 - 500 Vietnamese villagers killed Mar 16 - Robert F. Kennedy announces candidacy for President Mar 31 - LBJ announces decision not to run again and offers partial Vietnam bombing halt Apr 4 - Martin Luther King shot and killed in Memphis Apr - The week following Martin Luther King Jr.'s murder sees black uprisings in 125 cities across the U.S. Apr 6 - Oakland Police ambush Black Panthers. Eldridge Cleaver arrested with a bullet-shattered leg. Bobby Hutton shot and killed. Apr 8 - Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs established (DEA) Apr 11 - LBJ signs civil rights bill banning housing discrimination Apr 11 - Major call-up of reserves for duty in Vietnam Apr 14 - Love-in at Malibu Canyon, Calif. Apr 15 -
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Days of Our Lives (Youth)
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://www.hippy.com/php/article-15.html I find timelines can be interesting -- jogging memories of what we were doing when these events occurred -- and can help in reconstrucing other timelines like the TMO (this course had to be near these dates because I remember the announcement about ... dying. Start of a TMO Timeline (TMO stuff preceeded by * -- interspersed with the rest of counter culture / world. Please feel free to add. 1967 * Early 1967 or Late 1966, MMY announces he will return to India and go into lifetime silence. Jan 14 - Gathering of the Tribes, First Human Be-In, 20,000, S.F. Jan 27 - US, USSR, UK sign treaty banning nuclear weapons in space Feb - 25,000 US troops sent to Cambodian border Feb - Beatles release Strawberry Fields Forever, Penny Lane, Michelle, Yesterday Mar - Scientist report LSD causes chromosome damage (never validated). Mar - The Berkeley Barb starts the smokable banana rumor (based upon Donovan's song Mellow Yellow) Mar 3 - Alice B. Toklas dies Mar 18 - First U.S. supertanker wreck. Torrey Canyon spills 90,000 tons of oil onto English shores Mar 26 - Be-In at Central Park in NY. 10,000 attend * Spring 1967 TMer Robbie Krieger, part of LA SIMS Gayley Ave UCLA wave of initiates writes Lighter My Fire. Other song written by Krieger or Morrison -- later on first Doors album Take it as It Comes. Apr 5 - Grayline starts hippie tours of Haight/Ashbury Apr 10 - Vietnam Week starts. Draft card burnings and anti-draft demonstrations Apr 15 - Anti-Vietnam War protest. 400,000 march from Central Park to UN. Speeches by Martin Luther King, Stokely Carmichael and Dr. Benjamin Spock May - Paul McCartney announces that all the Beatles have dropped acid. May 19 - First U.S. air strike on Hanoi May 20 - Flower Power Day in NYC 1967 Jun 2 - Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band album by the Beatles released. Jun 16 - Monterey Pop Festival Early Summer 1967 -- Beatles initiated into TM Jun 21 - Summer Solstice Party in Golden Gate Park Jun 25 - Beatles sing All You Need Is Love on TV 1967 Jun 30 - 448,400 US troops now in Vietnam July - The Summer of Love in San Francisco July - Summer of Rioting in the US. Blacks take to the streets in Chicago, Brooklyn, Cleveland and Baltimore July 1 - Sgt. Pepper hits #1 July 11 - Newark riots start long hot summer July 24 - 43 Die in Detroit rioting, worst in U.S. history July 26 - H. Rap Brown arrested for inciting a riot in Maryland * July 29 - Door's Light My Fire and Procol Harem's Whiter Shade of Pale vie for #1 Aug 26 - Jimi Hendrix's Are You Experienced hits the charts Aug 27 - Beatles in India with Maharishi informed of Brian Epstein's death * Above is in original timeline. I beleive it is partially an error. the Beattles were with M in London. yes? Rishikesh course was spring of 1968. Sept - Richard Alpert meets Bhagwan Dass at the Blue Tibetan in Katmandu, stays in India follows him until he meets his guru. Sept 15 - Donovan performs at the Hollywood Bowl * Early Oct 1967 MMY lectures on west coast. Two public lectures at filled Berkeley Community Theatre. Says no need to give up anything for cosmic consciousness. Crowd cheers. Flyers handed out inviting all Students of the World to gain Cosmic Consciousness in five years. TM 2x day for 20 min and a week residence cours 2x (?) / year. Berekely Channing Ave Center opened. Grand building (former upscale frat house) Oct 3 - Woody Guthrie dies Oct 8 - Che Guevarra killed in Bolivia by US-trained troops Oct 12 - Big Brother and the Holding Company's Cheap Thrills with Janis Joplin at top of LP charts. Oct 20 - Seven KKK members convicted of conspiracy in 1964 murders of three civil rights worker Oct 21-22 - Anti-war protesters storm the Pentagon Oct 21 - Diggers exorcise the Pentagon. 35,000 Demonstrate, 647 arrested Oct 26 - Draft deferments eliminated for those who violate draft laws or interfere with recruitment Nov 2-7, or so, people lined up around the block to be initiated into TM. Jerry Jarvis, Carol Hanbie, Pete Ports (I think), Colin Harrision (?), Terry Gustafson (get back jojo) intiated day and night for a week. Pauley Ballroom at UC Berkeley filled for three-nights checking. Awesome group meditations. * UCB dedicates a large room on campus as meditation room. Nov 14 - Air Quality Act provides $428 million to fight air pollution Nov 20 - National Commission on Product Safety established Dec - Beatles release Magical Mystery Tour Dec - 486,000 American troops in Vietnam, of the 15,000 killed to date, 60% died in 1967. Dec - Stop the Draft movement organized by 40 antiwar groups, nationwide protests ensue. Dec 5 - 1000 antiwar protesters try to close NYC induction center. 585 arrested including Allen Ginsberg and Dr. Benjamin Spock Dec 5 - Beatles open Apple Shop in London Dec 8 - Otis Redding records Dock of the Bay Dec 10 - Otis
[FairfieldLife] Buy a Home, and Drag Society Down
Interesting article relevant to points discussed in various posts yesterday. THE recent proposals by President Bush's panel on tax reform led to a debate on whether the mortgage interest deduction was unfair, providing a huge subsidy for the rich while doing little for low-income Americans. But that debate poses a more fundamental question: Is homeownership a social good? ... For instance, according to the 1998 study, homeowners are older, richer, more likely to vote Republican, and more than half of them own guns, while only a quarter of renters do. ... Homeowners have spearheaded the movement to limit new housing supply that has artificially inflated housing throughout the U.S., Mr. Glaeser wrote. This is the downside to having individuals who have incentives to keep price up. The tax incentives might even be hurting America's inner cities, increasing the segregation of rich and poor. -- Buy a Home, and Drag Society Down By EDUARDO PORTER, NYTimes Published: November 13, 2005 THE recent proposals by President Bush's panel on tax reform led to a debate on whether the mortgage interest deduction was unfair, providing a huge subsidy for the rich while doing little for low-income Americans. But that debate poses a more fundamental question: Is homeownership a social good? It has long been an article of faith among policymakers that homeownership produces a big beneficial spillover to society at large. In the 1920's, Herbert Hoover said a family that owned a home had a more wholesome, healthful and happy atmosphere in which to bring up children. Franklin Delano Roosevelt said that a nation of homeowners is unconquerable. The government's use of tax incentives to encourage homeownership has a cost, however. The mortgage interest deduction and other subsidies will cost the government roughly $716 billion in lost taxes over the next five years, the president's tax panel said. And the subsidy distorts incentives to invest, pulling money into housing from other parts of the economy. So, are Americans getting value for their money? Theory suggests there are social benefits to homeownership, but we don't know whether they are large enough to justify the size of the subsidy, said Joseph Gyourko, professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. My gut feeling is that we are oversubsidizing. Arguments for the positive effects from a society of homeowners - what economists call positive externalities - stem mainly from the fact that homeowners have a bigger financial stake in their homes than renters do. This motivates them, so the theory goes, to take better care of their houses and communities. In short, it will make them better Americans. The argument seems to be supported by compelling evidence. In a 1998 study, Edward Glaeser, an economics professor at Harvard, and Denise DiPasquale, then a social scientist at the University of Chicago who now heads the housing research firm City Research, analyzed data from the General Social Survey, a big national study carried out annually since 1972, and concluded that homeownership did relate to heightened civic activity. For instance, they found that 77 percent of homeowners said they had at some point voted in local elections, while only 52 percent of renters said they had. About 20 percent of renters knew the name of their representative on the school board; 38 percent of homeowners did. Homeowners went to church more, and invested more in the upkeep of their homes. But as alluring as the data may be, economists and social scientists haven't been able to determine whether homeownership is actually generating all the positive statistics or whether, instead, it's just that people who vote more are more likely to buy homes. Owning a home relates to a bunch of other things, too, and it doesn't necessarily mean that homeownership causes or encourages them. For instance, according to the 1998 study, homeowners are older, richer, more likely to vote Republican, and more than half of them own guns, while only a quarter of renters do. There's a pervasive problem in trying to sort out whether there is something intrinsic about homeownership that causes these externalities or whether the people that become homeowners are the kind of people that generate these externalities, said James Poterba, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A study in 1996 by two economists, Richard K. Green at the University of Wisconsin and Michelle J. White at the University of Michigan, found that children of homeowners had a better chance of finishing high school than the children of renters, especially among low-income populations. And the daughters of homeowners were less likely to become pregnant before turning 18. But social scientists are hard-pressed to explain why homeownership would have this effect. Beyond the difficulty of proving that owning a home generates positive social
[FairfieldLife] Re: Sugar-Coated Poison: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY
jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Sounds like a great guy. Thanks for clearing that up! http://www.webindia123.com/personal/religious/sriravi.htm Some more bio stuff Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: San Francisco Invites Terrorists to Attack O'Reily
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, gullible fool [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Akasha, can you tell me where in the article it says San Francisco Invites Terrorists to Attack O'Reily, because I could not find it. That was the header on the source compilation the Drudge Retort (a take off on the Drudge Report). http://www.drudge.com/ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Darshan (was: Sugar-Coated Poison: )
Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In my direct experience with MMY and SSRS, their darshan is vast and powerful...infinite Shiva. An honest question and sincere point: I am wondering what you feel from your wife's darshan? Or attention on the love you have for her? The point I am trying to get at is distinguishing what comes from inside us, but we attribute to others, and what really comes from outside. Which is sort of silly when we ae discussing infinite Shiva -- its all inside and outside. But that sort of gets to the point. I find, that when focussing on a loved one, love fills you up, and all sorts of energy dynamics can unfold, lots of powerful stuff can happen. And one attributes it to the other, but its really just love within oneself unfolding. So thats the case with ordinary folks (not to imply your wife is ordinary). Is it (any) different with saints? I know that sounds like a silly question and makes it seems I have never been in the presence of saints and felt powerful and wonderful things. I have. But still, it begs the question, how much is coming from them, how much is just real inner stuff bubbleing up because we are focussed on something that invokes love and surrender? MMY has wonderful lectures on you think its all coming from the teacher, but the teahcer does nothing, it all comes from the student. Like a resevoir does nothing, its the pipe that makes the conection. Like a golden chain And love comes from you, not from the one you love Both quote streams are related to what i am trying to get at with the darshan experience -- but are not 100% dead-on. And many devotees make the (non) distinction that here or there, in their physiccal presence, 10,000 miles away, the guru is aways there, full as full can be. Has anyone figured out this distinction of wholeness and its source in saint darshan? How much is coming from the Saint? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Foreign Investors Lose Appetite for Treasuries
This, if a continuing trend, would signal a trend in the (long-anticipated) rise of long term bond rates -- the solution to the conundrum Fed Chariman Greenspan has been commenting on for some time - the flattening of the yield cure -- the rise in short term rates (that the Fed can highly influence) while long-term rates (upon -- which fixed mortgage rates are based -- and the periodic adjustment in ARMS are pegged) are flat or declining Steadily rising mortgage rates may be trigger for housing price deflation --- (the bursting of the housing bubble) given that it has contorted itself to such unsustainable levels. === Foreign Investors Lose Appetite for Treasuries as Deficit Rises ListenListen Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is growing more dependent on investors from abroad just as their appetite for Treasury securities is waning. Overseas investors, who own half of all U.S. government debt, bought 14 percent of the $79 billion in benchmark 10-year notes auctioned this year, down from 21 percent in 2004, Treasury Department data show. Bidders including foreign central banks purchased a smaller percentage of the $44 billion in three-, five- and 10-year notes the Treasury sold last week than they did a year ago. A drop in demand may extend the slump that pushed Treasury yields to the highest this year, raising the government's borrowing costs to finance a $319 billion deficit. The U.S. will borrow a record $171 billion from January to March, about double the amount this quarter, to help pay for relief efforts after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. ``I'd wait before buying because there is still more upside for yields,'' said Masayuki Yoshihara, a Tokyo-based investor who helps manage the equivalent of $25 billion at Sumitomo Life Insurance Co., Japan's fourth-largest life insurer. Investors ``are cautious about buying too aggressively right now with yields rising so quickly,'' he said in a Nov. 10 interview. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 4.68 percent on Nov. 4 from 3.98 percent on Sept. 1, just after Katrina struck the Gulf Coast. The yield, which moves inversely to the note's price and is used to help determine corporate and consumer borrowing costs, ended last week at 4.57 percent. Foreign Participation Foreign investors bought about 21 percent of the $218 billion of two-year notes auctioned this year, down from 31 percent in 2004, according to Treasury data. They also purchased about 21 percent of the $154 billion of five-year notes sold by the Treasury, compared with 30 percent last year. The figures don't include the results of last week's sales, which will be released in December. Indirect bidders, a larger group that includes U.S. institutional investors, foreign central banks and overseas investors, bought 34.9 percent of the debt sold. The percentage is down from 47.4 percent at the quarterly auction of three-, five-and 10-year notes a year earlier. ``Foreign buying is a very important source of demand for Treasuries and the market is concerned by evidence that it is waning,'' Joseph Di Censo, a bond strategist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York, said Nov. 11. ``This would obviously put upward pressure on yields. The Treasury will always be able to finance the budget deficit. The real question is at what cost.'' Foreign investors increased Treasury holdings by 9 percent this year, compared with more than 23 percent in each of the past two years. The current pace is the lowest since 2001, when net purchases rose 2.45 percent. `Haunting' Deficit Overseas investors owned $2.06 trillion, or half the $4.11 trillion in tradable Treasuries as of August, up from less than 40 percent three years ago and 34 percent in 2000. Debt strategists have credited foreign investors with keeping U.S. yields in check as the budget deficit ballooned to a record $412.8 billion in fiscal 2004 ending Sept. 30 and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 12 times. Since 2002, foreign purchases have reduced 10-year Treasury yields by 19 basis points, according to Banc of America Securities LLC. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. ``You can't build in these constant deficits without having them come back to haunt you,'' said Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Nov. 3 at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Japan, the largest foreign owner of Treasuries, cut its holdings of the securities this year to $684.5 billion in August from last year's peak of $699.4 billion in August, according to the latest Treasury data. An update on international demand comes in two days with the Treasury International Capital report for September. The median forecast of three economists surveyed by Bloomberg is that net purchases of stocks, bonds and other financial assets slowed to $70 billion from $91.3 billion in August. `Better Places' There's little incentive to invest in U.S. debt with inflation accelerating and the Fed forecast by
[FairfieldLife] Re: Darshan (was: Sugar-Coated Poison: )
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In my direct experience with MMY and SSRS, their darshan is vast and powerful...infinite Shiva. An honest question and sincere point: I am wondering what you feel from your wife's darshan? Or attention on the love you have for her? The point I am trying to get at is distinguishing what comes from inside us, but we attribute to others, and what really comes from outside. Which is sort of silly when we ae discussing infinite Shiva -- its all inside and outside. But that sort of gets to the point. I find, that when focussing on a loved one, love fills you up, and all sorts of energy dynamics can unfold, lots of powerful stuff can happen. And one attributes it to the other, but its really just love within oneself unfolding. So thats the case with ordinary folks (not to imply your wife is ordinary). Is it (any) different with saints? I know that sounds like a silly question and makes it seems I have never been in the presence of saints and felt powerful and wonderful things. I have. But still, it begs the question, how much is coming from them, how much is just real inner stuff bubbleing up because we are focussed on something that invokes love and surrender? MMY has wonderful lectures on you think its all coming from the teacher, but the teahcer does nothing, it all comes from the student. Like a resevoir does nothing, its the pipe that makes the conection. Like a golden chain And love comes from you, not from the one you love Both quote streams are related to what i am trying to get at with the darshan experience -- but are not 100% dead-on. And many devotees make the (non) distinction that here or there, in their physiccal presence, 10,000 miles away, the guru is aways there, full as full can be. Has anyone figured out this distinction of wholeness and its source in saint darshan? How much is coming from the Saint? Its a resonance thing. The saint is awake. When we awaken in the same way, we think it is the saint. But it isn't. Its both. Same with a loved one. Its both. Which is why as we develop, it doesn't much matter if it is a tree or a saint or a piece of gum or a dog or the morning breeze, same effect. What originally made us go Wow! is pretty much everywhere. Not a whole lot of difference. More oneness, less otherness, less wowness, more isness... But in the case of a tree, its not really both, the tree is not awake like a saint, it does not resonate in the same way as awakened saint. But I agree, experientially, that inanimate things, like a tree, can serve as a catalyst. I used to literally have a tree temple in a large park -- that I figured, vowed , decided, intuited that through devotion I could make the divine manifest in that very spot. Like a murti in a temple. My above question has to do with the question of if its our image and expectations of the saints purity that invokes that within us, starting the energy chain and inner dynamics. For example, I view SBS as pure as refined glass or a diamond -- an almost tranlucent body that lights up like a blazing diamond from inner light. But I realize that may be from inner and personal expectation and imagining. And thus, really could be transferred to anything - and that anything could serve as a similar catalyst. Like my tree. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble
Per recent housing price discussion, a new study highlights three key factors that distinguish the current pruce surge and the traditional housing price cycle -- indicating a potential bubble. --- Study cites recent trends that signal housing bubble Washington, DC - Recent trends in the housing market suggest a dangerous housing bubble, rather than a run-up caused by fundamental factors such as higher incomes and population growth, according to a new study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). The report, Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke? The Evidence for a Housing Bubble, cites three trends in the housing market that suggest an unsustainable increase in house prices: 1) A sharp divergence between house sale prices and rents; 2) An extraordinary jump in the rate of housing construction; and 3) A sharp decline in the savings rate, driven by a housing wealth effect. Federal Reserve Board chairman nominee, Benjamin Bernanke, has argued that there is no housing bubble and, therefore, no reason for the Fed to take action to address the bubble. Bernanke's approach raises grave risks, since the impact of a bursting housing bubble is likely to be even greater than the collapse of the stock bubble. The collapse of the housing bubble will throw the economy into a recession, and quite likely a severe recession, according to economist Dean Baker, co-author of the report. If the Fed chooses to let a housing bubble expand unchecked, the eventual cost to the economy and millions of American families could be enormous, said Baker. The report, by Dean Baker and David Rosnick, found three housing patterns that are tell-tale signs of a housing bubble: * A sharp divergence between house sale prices and rents. If house sale prices were pushed up by fundamentals in the housing market, it would be expected that rents and house sale prices would rise together -- but they are not. The house price index has increased by an unprecedented 51 percentage points more than the rent index since 1997. * A high rate of housing construction. The rate of housing construction over the last three years is more than 40 percent higher than it was in the 17 years prior to the run-up in house prices. This is not caused by the increase in the U.S. population, since the most rapid growth in the number of new households actually took place in the 1970s and early 1980s, when the huge baby boom cohort was first forming their own households. * A sharp decline in the savings rate. If house prices move at approximately the same pace as the overall inflation rate, as was the case prior to 1997, then housing wealth will have little effect on the savings rate. However, in the last eight years, house prices have outpaced the overall rate of inflation. The resulting wealth effect has depressed the savings rate, which has actually turned negative in recent months. For the full report see: Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke?: The Evidence for a Housing Bubble. The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. 1611 Connecticut Ave., NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20009 Tel: 202-293-5380 | Fax: 202-588-1356 | www.cepr.net Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: why you refuse to do such a simple thing as supply some URLs that you claim already to have found. And this is important, or even interesting, because ? Oh, if blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy are of no concern to you, I guess it wouldn't be. Thats a pretty big disconnect. If blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy were manfiestly core issues here, it might be of interest. Though labeling people, just for the sake of labeling, can get to be quite boring and IMO non-productive. In my view I don't see blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy -- but oddly, I do see some petty obsessions. I remember when Vaj first made the statement. It was not exactly earth shattering. A quick observation of some momentary interest. Not the kind of thing that would affect ones world view. Then I remember your correction: it wasn't a bunch of quick rich schemes after all, it was Fred G.s book. Curious, I did a search myself. The first page was filled with what looked like get rich quick schemes based on do less accomplish more (or do nothing accomplish everything). Upon closer examination, I saw they all related to Fred's book. So my take away was, you were both correct in reporting your perceptions. You, Judy, were technically correct. Vaj, it was clear to me, made a perceptual or cognitive error, as I initially did, and reported what he thought he saw. Not a big deal. I don't see blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy. And its not a matter of much important to begin with. I mean its not like Vaj was testifying before the nation about intelligence on WMD. So to go on and on and on about this, over a three month period, appears a bit curious to me. IMO, to me, it reveals quite a bit more about you than about Vaj. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Jason Spock [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: The Himalayan masters have outdated ideas. Just a single guy manages to float in the air,.. John Hagelin will be the next president of United States of America. And if just one monkey flies out my ass, I'll be on Letterman. John and I both are s close. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: why you refuse to do such a simple thing as supply some URLs that you claim already to have found. And this is important, or even interesting, because ? Oh, if blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy are of no concern to you, I guess it wouldn't be. Thats a pretty big disconnect. If blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy were manfiestly core issues here, it might be of interest. Though labeling people, just for the sake of labeling, can get to be quite boring and IMO non-productive. In my view I don't see blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy -- but oddly, I do see some petty obsessions. I remember when Vaj first made the statement. It was not exactly earth shattering. A quick observation of some momentary interest. Not the kind of thing that would affect ones world view. Then I remember your correction: it wasn't a bunch of quick rich schemes after all, it was Fred G.s book. Curious, I did a search myself. The first page was filled with what looked like get rich quick schemes based on do less accomplish more (or do nothing accomplish everything). Upon closer examination, I saw they all related to Fred's book. So my take away was, you were both correct in reporting your perceptions. You, Judy, were technically correct. Vaj, it was clear to me, made a perceptual or cognitive error, as I initially did, and reported what he thought he saw. Not a big deal. Mm-hm. And yet, had it been just a mistake, after I made my post reporting on Gratzon's book, you'd think Vaj would have double-checked and then retracted his claim. *Then* it would not have been a big deal; anybody can make a careless mistake like that. But he didn't. Instead he came up with all kinds of crap, I took it as Vaj playing with you. Knowing that if he obsuficated a bit, you would tend towards imploding in obsession. Barry enjoys such toying also. Perhaps not the noblest of traits, but maybe they are students of the behavioral sciences and love to see small pieces of bait repeatedly taken and watch the predictable drama unfold. ... (The point of the exercise, of course, having been to suggest that TMers are greedily preoccupied with making money and thus vulnerable to get-rich-quick schemes, especially if they're advertised using TM slogans.) From I have seen in 35+ years,in and around the movement: 1) TM teachers and govs are often preoccupied with making money quickly. 2) TM teachers and govs are often open to magical thinking, often lack much critical evaluation, logic and analytical skills, and therefore are vulnerable to get-rich-quick schemes. 3) TM teachers and govs are often have talked the talk of incredible undemonstrated stuff for so long, using TM slogans and lingo, that BS can often make great sense to them hey its just like . They do draw parallels and analogies as if this were a proof. And worse yet, often the analogies are to nebulous, abstract unproven stuff to begin with from TMO-world. What we know *for sure* is that having been informed of his error, Vaj first threw down a red herring of Fairfield get-rich-quick schemes, then when that didn't work, attempted to stonewall and pretend that there indeed were such sites but that somehow I was too incompetent to find them. Or he was playing with you. Lots of possible interpretations here. You may know it for sure -- just as we all claim to believe our interpreation of things, becasue they so clearly makes sense, it obviously (to us) is correct. Now, I don't know what your standards are for blatant dishonesty, but the above more than meets mine, even if Vaj's original claim was just a dumb mistake. Yes, your threshold is way way lower than mine. It's not like anybody here is testifying on such important matters. But Vaj *does* testify about matters that are important to many here, quite a few of whom seem to consider him to be a font of authoritative information. And we all take what he says, as with what anyone else says, with some grains of salt, based on OUR own appraisal of their tendency towards veracity. How you evealuate Vaj's tendency towards veracity is really of little consequence and interest to me. And I would guess most. We can and do make our own appraisals. So it appears to me to be important to know that he is willing to lie in the service of his agenda, Or he sometimes plays with people, throws out some bait to see if the age old patterns emerge. and accordingly take other pronouncements that he makes about MMY and TM and the TMO --and quite possibly other things as well--with a good-sized salt shaker handy. We all have our salt shakers. But if anything, your focus on this incident gives Vaj more credibiliy not less, in my view
[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way:
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/13/05 11:23 AM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Jason Spock [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: The Himalayan masters have outdated ideas. Just a single guy manages to float in the air,.. John Hagelin will be the next president of United States of America. And if just one monkey flies out my ass, I'll be on Letterman. I don't know. Do you think they'd let you demonstrate that on network TV? With Dave? Sure. He'd probably stage on the roof of the Ed Sullivan Theatre (as he does a number of things) and have me aim at windows in buildings across the street to see if I could hit them. And just think of the ratings if I am also the one guy who levitates. A twofer. John Haiglin would be there for running commentary. The levitation is predicted by my 13d virtual loop, tunneling of quantum worlds string theory. The monkey thing, we are still running some ARIMA models to try to correctly predict that sort of thing. The fact that the monkey is also flying, similtaneously with the emittor, shows the self referral, infinite looping parallelism of the universe. But we need more research dollars. Here is my 800 number. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f
Kenny H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: *also trying to rewrite the tax code and screw people out of their mortgage deduction And who is getting screwed out of thier mortgage deduction? Under the proposal, the average home owner will maintian their full deductiblity. And those who are unable to deduct it now, because they dont save enough by itemizing will be able to deduct it. Who will lose part of their deduction? The upper third or so on the wealth scale. You seem overly concerned for these poor souls. First, they will retain dudutability up to about the average price home regionally. Thus in California, those with a million dollar home, would, under the proposal, be only be able deduct the mortgage interest equivalent to about a $400-500,000 home. And yet, in balance, a lot of these taax payers are not currently able to deduct for such, because at their incomes the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) kicks in. But under the proposal, AMT will be killed, thus the upper third or tax payers trade part of their mortgage deduction for elimination of the onerous AMT. So don't cry too hard for these upper 1/3 of taxpayers who will be affected. (Which seems odd for you -- to cry for such (mostly Republicans), but I guess its just compassion bubbling out for all of God's creatures.) Their taxes will be pretty much uneffected as the AMT gains will balance out the partial mortgage deducability loss. And the lower 2/3s of tax payers will be generally uneffected -- or will actually gain -- by being able to deduct mortgage interest when they can't now. And the overall effect will be to make housing more affordable. A good thing, yes? What is interesting is your implication that mortgage interest deductions is an entitlement. It is a poor policy economically, having been a huge bonanza of a tax shelter for the rich and has contributed to current housing being out of reach for 85% of potential buyers. An effect will be that less money will be sunk into fancy show-off houses and more into capital investments which will raise productivity and wage rates for all. A good thing, yes? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
You are correct in that in rereading what I wrote, I should have said something like a visible minority of TM teachers and govs are often preoccupied I didn't mean to say all TM teachers are like that -- I wrote it too hastily. I agree with you A lot of TM teachers and governors are not preoccupied with making money at all, whether quickly or slowly. The majority. My point is that I have seen a lot of others who reflect the characteristics of my points. And it appears to me a higher proportion than found in society as a whole, though maybe I tend to hang with maintstream career types and my vision is skewed. There certainly is a lot of mojo in the lottery. Though I don't personally know many people who buy such lousy odds gambles. And my personal experience with easy money teachers was in the 70's and then looking a bit at a distance in the 80's and 90's -- with periodic personal encounters that appeared to confirm what I was seeing and hearing from afar. And FF appears to have had its share, actually a higher share than mainstream society from what I can tell, of scam artists, easy money schemes etc. Along with a lot of hard working people in intelligently concieved businesses. So sorry if my observations were overgeneralized, but for a segment of teachers, I still believe its a fair characterization. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, feste37 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From my 35+ years in and around the movement, I've not observed this. I think you could argue that the reverse is true, at least as far as your first point is concerned. A lot of TM teachers and governors are not preoccupied with making money at all, whether quickly or slowly. They have a more spiritual orientation to life and are not so concerned with the accumulation of material things. The gullibility and stupidity you ascribe to them seems unfair, to say the least. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From I have seen in 35+ years,in and around the movement: 1) TM teachers and govs are often preoccupied with making money quickly. 2) TM teachers and govs are often open to magical thinking, often lack much critical evaluation, logic and analytical skills, and therefore are vulnerable to get-rich-quick schemes. 3) TM teachers and govs are often have talked the talk of incredible undemonstrated stuff for so long, using TM slogans and lingo, that BS can often make great sense to them hey its just like . They do draw parallels and analogies as if this were a proof. And worse yet, often the analogies are to nebulous, abstract unproven stuff to begin with from TMO-world. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f
I know, California real estate is unreal (literally IMO and is not stable at current levels.) Thats one reason I left the state, having been born, raised, educated and careered there. Housing prices are just in fairyland compared to many other nice areas. And with broadband internet being most everywhere (and soon to be wireless, and literally EVERYWHERE, location is less and less important IMO, particularly if you can make a living not tied physically to a large hub business center.) Compare a $500,000 or million dollar home in SF, San Diego or Sac to one in FF. Its a joke. But the mortgage deduction still applies to the 350k bungalow. The proposals are for it to be partially taken away for the kind of basic $million middle class home close to it. And long run, thats a good thing, it will help bring housing and affordability back into synch. 15% affordibility rates are crazy and unsustainable. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Kenny H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Maybe to most of what you have written However, I don't consider $350,000+ for an 800-1000 sq. foot 2 br/1 bath bungalow (here in Sacramento) in a lousy neighborhood affordable. Go a few blocks over and the same houses are already at half a million. Go a bit further south towards the Bay Area or east towards Tahoe and you start getting to the $500,000+ range for a small-normal size home, not the estate one would have imagined for this kind of money. Do you know that the cost of --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Kenny H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: *also trying to rewrite the tax code and screw people out of their mortgage deduction And who is getting screwed out of thier mortgage deduction? Under the proposal, the average home owner will maintian their full deductiblity. And those who are unable to deduct it now, because they dont save enough by itemizing will be able to deduct it. Who will lose part of their deduction? The upper third or so on the wealth scale. You seem overly concerned for these poor souls. First, they will retain dudutability up to about the average price home regionally. Thus in California, those with a million dollar home, would, under the proposal, be only be able deduct the mortgage interest equivalent to about a $400-500,000 home. And yet, in balance, a lot of these taax payers are not currently able to deduct for such, because at their incomes the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) kicks in. But under the proposal, AMT will be killed, thus the upper third or tax payers trade part of their mortgage deduction for elimination of the onerous AMT. So don't cry too hard for these upper 1/3 of taxpayers who will be affected. (Which seems odd for you -- to cry for such (mostly Republicans), but I guess its just compassion bubbling out for all of God's creatures.) Their taxes will be pretty much uneffected as the AMT gains will balance out the partial mortgage deducability loss. And the lower 2/3s of tax payers will be generally uneffected -- or will actually gain -- by being able to deduct mortgage interest when they can't now. And the overall effect will be to make housing more affordable. A good thing, yes? What is interesting is your implication that mortgage interest deductions is an entitlement. It is a poor policy economically, having been a huge bonanza of a tax shelter for the rich and has contributed to current housing being out of reach for 85% of potential buyers. An effect will be that less money will be sunk into fancy show-off houses and more into capital investments which will raise productivity and wage rates for all. A good thing, yes? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] but maybe they are students of the behavioral sciences and love to see small pieces of bait repeatedly taken and watch the predictable drama unfold. ... But it's clearly not what Vaj was doing, if you go back and actually read his posts. And yet you have taken the bait (non-existant as you seem to think it is). Yeah, but we know this for sure. I'm reporting what he actually *said*, you see. No, you are reporting your interpretation of what he said. Now, I don't know what your standards are for blatant dishonesty, but the above more than meets mine, even if Vaj's original claim was just a dumb mistake. Yes, your threshold is way way lower than mine. I'm sorry to hear that. Now we know you can't be trusted either. Wow, I am now thrown in to pit with all the other liars and total scoundrels, just because I have a different standard than you for trivial vs substantial things to worry about. Oh, please don't report me to the Thought Police oh kind and worthy Commissaress. As it happens, though, as I just pointed out, many people here seem to take everything Vaj says as gospel. HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel. Any hands? Who among us takes everything Vaj says as Gospel? (And if you do, I have a wonderful little seminar on making millions in 3 weeks, that I invite you to attend.) So it appears to me to be important to know that he is willing to lie in the service of his agenda, And what is his agenda? I'm happy to have it revealed that I am intolerant of deliberate falsehood. Or your perception of deliberate falsehood. Belief doesn't neessarily make it (deliberate falsehood) so. Yeah, this isn't belief; we have the evidence of his own words, you see. Thats what is so fascinating. You actually beleive you can absolutely impute his motive from words words. We have words that he uttered (trivial, IMO) falsehoods. We do not have words that PROVE his motives. His motives are your interpretation of what he said. *Even if* he were just trying to get a rise out of me-- which there are excellent reasons to think was not the case--he was still perpetrating a deliberate falsehood. The first time around, it *could* have been a mistake-- not likely, but possible. His *defense* was obviously intentionally false, on its face. No, you are reporting your interpretation of what he said. Of course, he could easily come forward now, claim he was just baiting me in his defense, and explain that he had initially made an error--that is, if he wanted to set the record straight. I'm guessing he doesn't, but we'll see. Come on down Vaj! Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote: HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel. Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be released until 2012. Only George I presume. Or are you burning the whole family at the stake? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote: HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel. Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be released until 2012. I saw the movie, wide screen version of the 10 commandments at a tender impressionable age. The scene I most remember was the burning bush. It was like, yeah, thats worth finding What is your take on the burning bush? Most interpretations I have heard are kundalini rising and illuminating the web of channels and energy pathways, particularly the crown chakra, which is said to resemble a burning bush. And it is from this illumined state, the word of god is heard. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:28 PM, akasha_108 wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote: HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel. Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be released until 2012. Only George I presume. Or are you burning the whole family at the stake? We threw in Ann Coulter for good measure. Ah, I thought I heard something cackling in the fire. (its funny though. She hangs with Bill Maher sometimes. On his show, she laughs at his pot jokes -- and smiles at strong indendos about the two of them getting it on. Does she take a somewhat different view from her conservative brethen on personal freedom issues? Fornication? Drugs? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:23 PM, akasha_108 wrote: HAHAHA. I don't think even Vaj takes everthing hes says as Gospel. Only the stuff the Burning Bush tells me to. But that book won't be released until 2012. I saw the movie, wide screen version of the 10 commandments at a tender impressionable age. The scene I most remember was the burning bush. It was like, yeah, thats worth finding What is your take on the burning bush? Most interpretations I have heard are kundalini rising and illuminating the web of channels and energy pathways, particularly the crown chakra, which is said to resemble a burning bush. And it is from this illumined state, the word of god is heard. Charlston Heston saw the burning bush, heard the word of god, and became president of the NRA. Go figure. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Nov 13, 2005, at 4:37 PM, akasha_108 wrote: Ah, I thought I heard something cackling in the fire. (its funny though. She hangs with Bill Maher sometimes. On his show, she laughs at his pot jokes -- and smiles at strong indendos about the two of them getting it on. Does she take a somewhat different view from her conservative brethen on personal freedom issues? Fornication? Drugs? Not sure but I always found her very refreshing on that show. Yea, its almost like she is human. Shes funny, bright, witty. Laughs a lot. Then you see her on a cable news show appearance and she is spitting venom and fire. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Earth turns around the sun not the other way: (How MMY sold a diamond (TM) f
jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I was just looking at housing prices in my neighborhood in Santa Clara, Cal. which is a middle-class neighborhood, but nothing ritzy- Many retired folks, some families and couples. Houses are typically single story, about 50 years old, 1200 to 1500 square feet. Selling prices are 750 to 900K. You won't find a house for less, although I did see a 2/1, 900 square feet, for 720K... The proposed mortgage deduction would hurt a lot of people here, even if prices softened somewhat. Well the rent to mortgage cost (after tax) in many parts of the bay area, and other high price areas are quite low, like 50% and less. They are hurt only if they feel the need to buy. Pay 2000 in rent or 4000 in a mortgage. Rentals in sme areas a great deals -- and a great way to ride out the bubble. Some will say, but I don't want to throw my money away in rent. At least with a house I amd building equity. False on so many levels. First, everyone is a renter. They either rent property, or the rent money to to buy housing. A million dollar home costs a lot of rent on money. Just as wasted as property rent. Second, the only thing that makes owning more attractive, financially, than renting when the rent to mortgage ratios are so low, is the expectation of appreciation. But that train has left. Prices everywhere are leveling off or beginning to fall. And when the expectations for apprecation are no longer there, it becomes a double whammy: no appreciation, and demand for housing falls thus bringing pressure for lower prices -- starting a depreciation expectation cycle. Thats when everyone tries to unload and prices plummet. Third, if you are paying 2000 in rent instead of 4000 in mortgage for the same property, you are saving 2000 a month which can be saved, invested etc. Thats your rent equity building up and if there is no or little price appreciation, it will far outstrip any equity build up in property. Fourth, if one is paying interest only, they are not building up any equity -- nothing is going to repay principal. And they may actually be building up negative equity, which gets tacked onto the loan in later years. The only equity build up is if prices keep appreciating -- it becomes a game of the greater fool. Hold risky properties now with the hope someone will be foolish enough to buy at an appreciated price in a flat or declining market in years hence. Fifth, international investors may be holding up the market now, and maybe suffering from information lags -- being sold on price trends of past years and not understanding the dynamics of the local market. But after a year or two of flat and declining prices, the bloom will be off the rose, and hot international money could flood out of the area. By definition, international investors are renting their properties. 50% rent to mortgage ratios may be bearable when prices are appreciating 20-40% a year. But when that stops, for a couple of years, bam, many investors will try to unload. Thus putting more pressure on downward prices. The trend here, just to buy a house, is to take out an interest-only loan. So many homeowners are counting on that large mortgage interest deduction to be able to afford the house. And in 2-5 years they may count their blessings the loss of mortgage deductions prevented them from buying at the peak of the market. For the last twenty years at least, through good times and bad, people have been predicting housing prices to go down here. There is about a 15% affordability rate in this area, with lots and lots of overseas investor money mostly from Asia keeping prices high, even through recessions. But there has never been sustained 15% affordability and 50% rent to mortgage ratios. So the past is not a good predictor. And many parts of california had definite flattening and declines 1985-95 or so. Certainly in San Diego and parts of LA/OC. I thought the bay area had such too -- maybe not. So the SF Bay Area is not purely a domestic real estate market. If the mortgage deduction is adjusted to the 350K range, all that will happen here is that local people will be forced to sell, Well, many owners have morgages in the 500 or less range, having obtained them 5-20 years ago. Who will be initially hurt are new buyers. But they can rent for half the price. I can't feel too sorry for them. the properties will be snatched up by investors and we'll have more renters. Not for too much longer, IMO. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the
[FairfieldLife] Re: Samadhi meditation rare...in any discipline!
Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Bliss is, actually, quite stupid. Well, I was talking to Bliss the other day and it said Peter was stupid. :) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] California Housing Prices (was: Earth turns around the sun )
akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote: jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Well the rent to mortgage cost (after tax) in many parts of the bay area, and other high price areas are quite low, like 50% and less. They are hurt only if they feel the need to buy. Pay 2000 in rent or 4000 in a mortgage. Rentals in sme areas a great deals -- and a great way to ride out the bubble. Some will say, but I don't want to throw my money away in rent. At least with a house I amd building equity. False on so many levels. First, everyone is a renter. They either rent property, or the rent money to to buy housing. A million dollar home costs a lot of rent on money. Just as wasted as property rent. Second, the only thing that makes owning more attractive, financially, than renting when the rent to mortgage ratios are so low, is the expectation of appreciation. But that train has left. Prices everywhere are leveling off or beginning to fall. And when the expectations for apprecation are no longer there, it becomes a double whammy: no appreciation, and demand for housing falls thus bringing pressure for lower prices -- starting a depreciation expectation cycle. Thats when everyone tries to unload and prices plummet. Third, if you are paying 2000 in rent instead of 4000 in mortgage for the same property, you are saving 2000 a month which can be saved, invested etc. Thats your rent equity building up and if there is no or little price appreciation, it will far outstrip any equity build up in property. Fourth, if one is paying interest only, they are not building up any equity -- nothing is going to repay principal. And they may actually be building up negative equity, which gets tacked onto the loan in later years. The only equity build up is if prices keep appreciating -- it becomes a game of the greater fool. Hold risky properties now with the hope someone will be foolish enough to buy at an appreciated price in a flat or declining market in years hence. Fifth, international investors may be holding up the market now, and maybe suffering from information lags -- being sold on price trends of past years and not understanding the dynamics of the local market. But after a year or two of flat and declining prices, the bloom will be off the rose, and hot international money could flood out of the area. By definition, international investors are renting their properties. 50% rent to mortgage ratios may be bearable when prices are appreciating 20-40% a year. But when that stops, for a couple of years, bam, many investors will try to unload. Thus putting more pressure on downward prices. For the last twenty years at least, through good times and bad, people have been predicting housing prices to go down here. There is about a 15% affordability rate in this area, with lots and lots of overseas investor money mostly from Asia keeping prices high, even through recessions. But there has never been sustained 15% affordability and 50% rent to mortgage ratios. So the past is not a good predictor. And many parts of california had definite flattening and declines 1985-95 or so. Certainly in San Diego and parts of LA/OC. I thought the bay area had such too -- maybe not. ... Actually per your above, an interest-only mortgage is actually cheaper many times than renting is, The interest only phase payments can be near current rents. But the IO phase only lasts 3-5 years. 10 Max. And interest rates are rising. So payments could rise substantially -- particularly if we get into the 8% range. And once regular ARM payments start in 3-5 years, the payments will jump up again. I have seen reports where a 2k payment now could ballon into a 5k + payment within a few years. If someone is just barely qualifying for a IO loan now, at 30% of income, they might be faced with payments in a few years of 60-70% of income. Its a disaster waiting to happen. and you have the possibnable. lity of building equity. Not during the interest only phase. Except for appreciation which is becoming non-existant or negative. Also, I don't know of anyone with a $500 per month mortgage who has purchased here in the last 20 years. Of course not. The point was a 500k total mortgage -- which a lot of people who got mortgages in the past 5-15 years have mortgages under this level and thus will not be hit by the proposed mortgage deduction in the bay area -- (I think the proposed cap there is 450k.) And you make the assumption that if one is renting, there are investments that deliver equal returns over time to real estate. What are they? Well you are making the huge assumtion, that RE will continue appreciating in the Bay Area. The main point of my prior post is that there are strong reasons in the fundamentals to beleive that the days of appreciation are over for a long time. But in addition to that, look at the current markets in california. San Diego. OC and LA are seeing decling prices. IN Norcal, Sacramento
[FairfieldLife] Re: The Mahesh Kozlowski Effect, was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: why you refuse to do such a simple thing as supply some URLs that you claim already to have found. And this is important, or even interesting, because ? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, markmeredith2002 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just not true. snip There's the question of the body's ability to assimilate the nutrients in foods. Agreed. Though a veg diet seems much more digestible to me. Tofu -- its gotta be more easily broken down than chicken, and certainly beef. I tried for a long time to go veg. and be careful about getting enough protein but felt low energy the whole time. Maybe it was lack of iron or B-vits, not protein. Proper cooking (and or chopping), and chewing is important. I often use a food processor to finely chop veggies -- for salads, or light low heat cooking -- to improve absorbsion. Yes, one needs to supplement a veg diet with plenty of with b12. And iron -- which can be obtained by good vegetables --- kale and chard in particular. Its a myth that one needs beef for sufficient iron. Anyway, my body felt totally different after eating meat compared to a high-protein veg meal. Some times its the high carbs in a high protein veg meal. One can get adequate protein from rice and beans -- but the carb load is so high, it can have bad effects on the body, particularly energy levels -- and on how one feels. I'm not discouraging people from veg. diets, just to say always go by how your body/mind is feeling, not just the theory. Yes, ultimately diet needs to make you feel good. But good research is good too, so one is clear on what the body needs, and what foods provide it. There are a lot of misinformation and mythhs out there that a bit of research can dispell. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Would you have allowed Bill Gates to be born?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, uns_tressor [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/10/05 8:30 PM, uns_tressor at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, shempmcgurk [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Would you have allowed Bill Gates to be born? Advances in prenatal genetic testing pose tough questions http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7899821/ Who needs Bill Gates? No, I don't mean who needs a gazillionaire corporate titan, a man whose company, Microsoft, took in billions of dollars last year by controlling nearly all the software used to run nearly every computer on the planet. No, I mean, literally, who needs him? If you could go back in time and stop the birth of the world's most famous nerd, would you? You probably answered my question with a no. Whatever Gates' sins may be, he is the father of a computer revolution... He might have earned that moniker if it hadn't been for Charles Babbage 150 years ago, or Alan Turing or Clive Sinclair who created the concept of home computer. History will see Gates as someone who used the chance for bare faced profit, making £75,000,000,000 selling faulty goods. No car manufacturer could get away with it. And we put up with it. He's leaving comparatively little to his children. Donating billions to AIDS research and other worthy causes... ...which tend to be glamorous causes rather than assisting those who spend hours stripping and re-rigging his products because they are faulty. Uns. I am pretty happy with XP Pro. Maybe your needs are much more demanding. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, markmeredith2002 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just not true. snip There's the question of the body's ability to assimilate the nutrients in foods. Agreed. Though a veg diet seems much more digestible to me. Tofu -- its gotta be more easily broken down than chicken, and certainly beef. I tried for a long time to go veg. and be careful about getting enough protein but felt low energy the whole time. Maybe it was lack of iron or B-vits, not protein. Proper cooking (and or chopping), and chewing is important. I often use a food processor to finely chop veggies -- for salads, or light low heat cooking -- to improve absorbsion. And yes, one needs to supplement a veg diet with plenty of with b12. And iron -- which can be obtained by good vegetables --- kale and chard in particular. Its a myth that one needs beef for sufficient iron. Anyway, my body felt totally different after eating meat compared to a high-protein veg meal. Some times its the high carbs in a high protein veg meal. One can get adequate protein from rice and beans -- but the carb load is so high, it can have bad effects on the body, particularly energy levels -- and on how one feels. I'm not discouraging people from veg. diets, just to say always go by how your body/mind is feeling, not just the theory. Yes, ultimately diet needs to make you feel good. But good research is good too, so one is clear on what the body needs, and what foods provide it. There are a lot of misinformation and mythhs out there that a bit of research can dispel. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] DC Abortion Rates
http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/state_ab_pt/district_of_columbia.pdf Drawing on the work of economist Steven Levitt, U of Chicago, showing a causal relationship between abortions and crime rates 16-22 years later, the aborion rates in DC during the 70s are an important factor in understanding crime rate trends in DC. The rate for violent crimes was cut in half from the mid 90's to the present. Looking at abortion rates per 1000 women in DC in the 70's the rate was about 10 times the national average 250 in 1973 and around 200 for most of the 70's compared to a national rate of around 25- 30. Thus, lagged abortion it would appear, is part quite an important factor to control for when evaluating the impact of other crime reduction factors. Ignoring lagged abortion rates will tend to overstamake any crime reduction measure being evaluated in the 1990-2000 time frame. I will add abortion rates in DC broken down by age cohort, as control variables in the previous discussed ME regression model and see how this affects ME impacts. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] Perhaps MMY has Cosmic ADHD? ;-) Like a stick through water, perhaps. A minute later, what stick? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: 'Ali Stings Bush'
He's good for a pep rally, but the actually nitty-gritty of sound policy development seems to be beyond him. Though I am in the minority, I cringe at his pep rally attempts. I was embarrassed as he spoke from the bullhorn in the pile of rubble, his arm around the fireman. It just seemed unreal and shallow. Ditto for the flightsuit affair -- Mission accomplished. It all seems manufactured to me. I get the feeling of nails scractching a chalk board when I see him at these affairs. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] Perhaps MMY has Cosmic ADHD? ;-) Like a stick through water, perhaps. A minute later, what stick? Exactly! Who told you to use the stick? At least it's not Alzheimers where you forget what a stick is. With ADD you struggle to organize the parts across time. With Alzheimers you forget what the parts are. yes -- in general. But I took care of my mom with advanced Alzhiemers for 3 years before it did her in. Its interesting to watch the disease progress. It wasn't that she forgot the stick in many cases -- but she could not verbalize it. For example, she may have forgotten her dogs names, but she knew them and was loving towards them. She couldn't tell you who Cary Grant was, but she loved watching his movies on a big screen TV. And sometimes, she was stuck in the past as a girl or teen with very clear memories of such times. And they dominated at times. For periods, she was insistant that she had to go home because her mother was waiting for her. She could talk in detail about her (childhood) house and mother -- but had no recognition of her present house of 20 years. It was very clear to her that her home (childhood) was just down the road a bit, and she would strike out, walking down the road to go home. (under watchful eye -- trying to dissuade her was next to impossible, a la I HAVE to get home. Mother is waiting!) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- L B Shriver [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: LB, your last post in this thread was truncated, so I couldn't include it, but I wanted to compliment you on your observations. As you note, science is, at its best, an international, public discourse. I can understand MIU's reluctance to hand over the raw data for reasons that have nothing to do with this discourse. All movement research is for one purpose only: to promote the teaching of TM/TM-Siddhis. It's for PR only. Those in charge, MMY, aren't interested in developing a coherent theory of the field effects of consciousness. They just want to sell TM. The MIU researchers won't hand over the raw data because the ME is very weak, almost noise, not pattern. It can easily be shown not to exist using alternative, and more traditional, statistical methods used in this type of research. Yes. And in statistical methods such as multi-variate regression (and ARIMA which they used -- which can be thought of as a specialized subset of of regression methods), a large number of model specifications can be developed and tested. (A model specification being the articulation of dependent variable with various control and explanatory variables aka independent variables. Such as: crime is a function of weather, LE funding and unemployment. OR, crime = f(weather, lagged abortion rates, education levels) OR, crime = f(severity of punisment levels, conviction rates (agressive prossecution), police on the street. OR crime = f(lagged head start programs, lagged pre-natal care, lagged school lunch programs, and lagged classroom size). Many, many model specifications can be tested. A good analyst and research team will look to at least half a dozen key parameters to evaluate how well each model explains the variations in the dependent variable: i) overall model fit via R^2 and global F test, ii) the significance of each independent (control) variable, aka t-tests, i.e., was it a random effect?, iii) were the independent variables correlated with each other (a bad thing, called multi-collinearity), iv) are the variables correlated with past values of themselves aka autocorrelation (a bad thing), v) are the residuals random or skewed relative to the dependent variable aka hetroscadisity, (a bad thing), is the model specification consistent with theory, aka does it tell a reasonable and plausible story -- or were a million independent variables tested, and chosen ONLY due to good fit (aka, which chan happen via 'spurious corrleation but really are just randome effects, vii) is the data good, viii, were the number of independent varibales less than 10-20x the number of observations, etc. Either by inexperience, or via intent to manipulate and arrive at a pre-selected result, a researcher can shoose model specifications that show a particular effect, via one paramenter, but are weak in other parameters. But these parameters or diagnostics (like the eight above) can be swept under the carpet and not cited in the research results, or worded in a best-spin sort of way (characteristic of some TMO reseaarchers, IMO). Thus, its critical to make the full original dataset available to other researchers to test the hypothesis via their approach to model specification and selection. If a suboptimal specification were chosen by the original researchers, because one or two paramenters shined, but others sucked, this illusion can be uncovered by indepedendent analysis and comparision of the results of different model specifications -- and the full spectrum of the relevant parameters and diagnostics associated with them. Or it may be found that alternative model specifications, strong on all levels, produces a different conclusion than the original research. This may indicates something important is missing in one or both models, and more analysis is necessary. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip Thus, its critical to make the full original dataset available to other researchers to test the hypothesis via their approach to model specification and selection. If a suboptimal specification were chosen by the original researchers, because one or two paramenters shined, but others sucked, this illusion can be uncovered by indepedendent analysis and comparision of the results of different model specifications -- and the full spectrum of the relevant parameters and diagnostics associated with them. Or it may be found that alternative model specifications, strong on all levels, produces a different conclusion than the original research. This may indicates something important is missing in one or both models, and more analysis is necessary. And in good science this discourse goes back and forth with re-analysis of data, arguments for and against stated conclusions and out of this seeming mess really good, scientific advances come about. (On a side note, if you follow the topics in scientific journal articles it is amusing how rival camps all but call each other assholes in their publcations) Unfortunately the TMO is not interersted in having its ME research looked at because they know it is not robust. It's a very faint whisper of pattern in a sea of random noise that can only be seen if you look at it in a very particular way. Yes. Its amusing how some hold that publication in a peer-reviewed journal is the end-all and be-all of research. Its really an initial screening for obvious errors. And depending on the status of the journal, the degree and depth of review by peers may vary substantially from journal to journal. Regardless, publication is the beginning of the process, not the end. Its when the real peer review happens: a wider audience reads the paper, sends comments and issues to letters to the editor, and often quite a tossle of view proceeds. Which strengthens subsequent analysis. A second level of substantiation of a pulished article is does it generate enough interest so that more original research is conducted in the topic area. And is the analysis and methodology strong enough in the original publication to generate funding for the additional research. Since the publication of ME research, it has not, to my knowledge, generated any non-TMO reasreach or funding. That speaks to the strength and credibility of the original research. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip Thus, its critical to make the full original dataset available to other researchers to test the hypothesis via their approach to model specification and selection. Just to make sure several different things don't get conflated here (again): The raw data--the crime and other stats--used in *both* studies, however, were publicly available. Well, just to make sure several different things don't get conflated here (again): You seem to equate public availabilty of FBI crime stats with all the raw data .. were publically available. First, there is a differnece between publically available and easily accessable. As I have stated in prior posts, the weekly FBI stats are not available on line prior to 1995. While they are probably is some library, finding them copying them, and keyboard entering them into a research data set is time consuming and restricive -- and not what is meant by make the full original dataset available to other researchers. Second the research data set includes much more than crime stats. It includes weather data (again hard to find 12-20 years later in a weekly form) and the socio-economic and LE data used as control variables. Locating such data is more difficult than obtaining the crime statistics which are per your words, publically available. When a data set from a study is made available it is either put on line, or sent in digital form, on CD for example. At a minimum, a hard copy of the data is provided -- though this is a bit of a constsraining option -- a hurdle placed on new researchers wishing to duplicate or extend the analysis. As far as computer output from the modeling, its standard to at least provide a detailed summary of key diognastics and paramters for the final model specificatation, and for key rejected specifications, and the reasoning for rejection (e.g, high multi-colineearity or hetroscadasity.) Full sets of computer output are not required, though in this age of easy mass archiving -- on-line or CDs, there is no good reason not to. Regardless, an independent researcher, if they have the dataset, can rerun the analysis, and obtain all the intermediate steps and diagnostics they care to analyze. I hope this clears up this issue so we don't have to keep repeating it. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/11/05 11:44 AM, Peter at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: And in good science this discourse goes back and forth with re-analysis of data, arguments for and against stated conclusions and out of this seeming mess really good, scientific advances come about. (On a side note, if you follow the topics in scientific journal articles it is amusing how rival camps all but call each other assholes in their publcations) Unfortunately the TMO is not interersted in having its ME research looked at because they know it is not robust. It's a very faint whisper of pattern in a sea of random noise that can only be seen if you look at it in a very particular way. And yet Hagelin brags repeatedly that the ME is the most verified thing in the history of science. Only one in a gazillion odds that it could be chance. P values to 25 decimal places or some such thing. Which crappy model spcifications and bad out of whack parameters in other areas can create. See my adjacent post on this. Thats why you need to look at the full range of relevant parameters and makes sure they are witnin acceptable bounds. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/11/05 11:44 AM, Peter at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: And in good science this discourse goes back and forth with re-analysis of data, arguments for and against stated conclusions and out of this seeming mess really good, scientific advances come about. (On a side note, if you follow the topics in scientific journal articles it is amusing how rival camps all but call each other assholes in their publcations) Unfortunately the TMO is not interersted in having its ME research looked at because they know it is not robust. It's a very faint whisper of pattern in a sea of random noise that can only be seen if you look at it in a very particular way. And yet Hagelin brags repeatedly that the ME is the most verified thing in the history of science. Only one in a gazillion odds that it could be chance. P values to 25 decimal places or some such thing. Which crappy model spcifications and bad out of whack parameters in other areas can create. See my adjacent post on this. Thats why you need to look at the full range of relevant parameters and makes sure they are witnin acceptable bounds. Bear in mind that there's nobody on this forum in a position to defend the ME studies. It's easy to make folks think you've debunked something when they aren't able to see a response to the debunking. I simply made a general statement, not support or debunking any particular study. The operative word is can. General statement: A crappy model specification can create the false appearance of high t values (e.g., p.0xx). Specific statment about a specific model: none The general statement may or may not apply to the ME study or any other study. One would have to look at the specifics of the study. The point being, a p .xxx is not necessary golden. One needs to look at all the parameters coming out of the analysis. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In other words, I don't believe akasha is in a position even to guess at flaws in the study or to say the results didn't reflect the reality unless he knows *exactly* what methodology the researchers used. He has to be able to see the published study before he can make a relevant evaluation. The summary appears quite clear -- they did not use the control variables in the primary analysis. I don't need to read the full study, which I seek to, to raise concerns about that and other things stated in the summary. And I can speculate as to the data issues they faced, having climbed that hill many times in various analysis projects, and why they did what they did (as outlined in the summary). Speculation is not exactly a searing critique. On the same token, I suppose its hard for you to defend the study without having it at hand. (Just curious, did you read the full study in the past? But no longer have a copy?) I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own method, run all the numbers, get different results, and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say there was something wrong with their results. I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly invent regression for this analysis. Second, who knows if I will get the same or a different result than them. Its a work in progress. I shared some preliminary exploratory results, based on a surprising strong little initial model. As I get better data, I will undoubtedly be able to develop better models. Third, I am approaching the analysis from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did. Thats a good thing. For example, looking at personal crimes, using a unified model for the complete analysis, etc. Fourth, I am not using my analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers. For now, I would rather debate my own analysis than some analysis done 12 years ago in which the data used is not apparently readily available, nor the study itself. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Other Earth-like worlds?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rory Goff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Can you chant all 1008 names from memory *lol* I haven't even finished chanting them all *from the book* yet! I was just curious. Some folks do chant from memory. I have always thought would be nice. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Akasha, did they use an interupted time series analysis? I'm assuming with my baby stats background that this would have been appropriate. Yes, it appears they used an ARIMA / Box-Jenkins model. Which is efficient for impact anlysis with highly seasonal and autocorrelated data -- typically financial data. The crime data may have seasonality but does not appear to be that strongly autocorrelated. And traditioanlly, it requires 5-6 seasons of data to be reliable. Since one of their models was only for 1993 data (from the summary) it raises some questions. IMO, its too bad they did not use a more generalized regression approach. Anything that can be done in ARIMA can be done in a regression model specification -- by using differening and lagging of variables, and use of dummy variables for impacts and seasonality. ARIMA, IMO, is a bit of a black box, regression models are much more transparent. And regression allows, at least is easier for, testing a large number of independent control variables in a unified model. The summary states that temperature was the only control variable used in the primary analysis for the 1 year and 5 year analysis. Then, later, they tested a range of social / LE control variables to show, per their satisfaction, that the contol variables were insignificant in effecting the results of the 1 and 5 year models. Aside from being methodologically weak, of not using variables in the primary models, this findng is counter intuitive and contradicts many crime studies where factors beyond temperature have a clear impact on crime levels. I suspect, they were forced to test the control variables outside the primary analysis because of different time intervals for the relevant data. Often the socio-economic / LE data is available in annual form, and the impact analysis -- crime and temp data was weekly. When we locate a copy of the study, we will have a better idea. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own method, run all the numbers, get different results, and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say there was something wrong with their results. I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly invent regression for this analysis. I suspect you're well aware that isn't what I meant. Ok. What did you mean by I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own method? I assume you agree that the rest of your statement, I'm not at all sure he can run all the numbers, get different results, and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say there was something wrong with their results was misguided, per the repsonse below. - Akasha full prior response: I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly invent regression for this analysis. Second, who knows if I will get the same or a different result than them. Its a work in progress. I shared some preliminary exploratory results, based on a surprising strong little initial model. As I get better data, I will undoubtedly be able to develop better models. Third, I am approaching the analysis from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did. Thats a good thing. For example, looking at personal crimes, using a unified model for the complete analysis, etc. Fourth, I am not using my analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers. For now, I would rather debate my own analysis than some analysis done 12 years ago in which the data used is not apparently readily available, nor the study itself. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own method, run all the numbers, get different results, and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say there was something wrong with their results. I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly invent regression for this analysis. J: I suspect you're well aware that isn't what I meant. A: Ok. What did you mean by I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own method? J: And I also suspect you know what I *did* mean. A: I assume you agree that the rest of your statement, I'm not at all sure he can run all the numbers, get different results, and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say there was something wrong with their results was misguided, per the repsonse below. J: Nope, don't agree. A: - Akasha full prior response: I guess, if thats what i were doing, above. Which I am not. Nice strawman. First I am using the most standard and conventional methods for this type of study -- multi-variate regression. I did not suddenly invent regression for this analysis. Second, who knows if I will get the same or a different result than them. Its a work in progress. I shared some preliminary exploratory results, based on a surprising strong little initial model. As I get better data, I will undoubtedly be able to develop better models. Third, I am approaching the analysis from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did. Thats a good thing. For example, looking at personal crimes, using a unified model for the complete analysis, etc. Fourth, I am not using my analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers. For now, I would rather debate my own analysis than some analysis done 12 years ago in which the data used is not apparently readily available, nor the study itself. === Akasha: OK. aside from non-answers and short statements of disageements, you you care to share why? You make strong accusations and then waffle when asked to clarify. 1) What did you mean by I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own method? It was not clear to me, thus I asked 2)Do you agree that multi-variate regression is a most standard and conventional methods for this type of study? Or do you have no basis for knowing? 3) Do you realize that I don't know if I will get the same or a different result than them, that its a work in progress? 4) Do you understand that I am approaching the analysis from different angles, more angles perhaps, than they did? 5) Do you understand that I am not using my analysis as a basis to critique the oringinal study. I am doing it to understand the ME and verify or reject it based on the actual numbers? If you do understand any or all of the above, how can you say I'm not at all sure he can run all the numbers, get different results, and on that basis, without knowing what methodology they were using, say there was something wrong with their results? It appears to be contradictory. Again I am curious as to your logic chain here. It appears flawed. Enlighten me. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: A book you might enjoy
Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: That's exactly what the people who drank the kool-aid in Guyana did. Scary. Yes, but you bring it to an absurd extreme. I think few would follow a master's directive to kill themselves. I wouldn't care if it was a test or not, I wouldn't do it. The dance with a master is as complex as one's attachments. MMY in these examples is just honing in for a specific attachment kill. But dude, oh yea of little faith. Like, dude, don't you remember that master-dude who told the disciple-dude to jump off the cliff, and he did without hesitation, and the master climbed down, picked up all the scattered gory pieces of the student-dude, and brought the dude back to life. Way kewl! I'm up for that man. Totally! Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: MUM no FFL
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: and John was told to have sex with no more than 12 different women in one month. All at the same time? Did he get that Krishna/gopi siddhi? Lucky dude. (he may not be a big dick, but he has a lot of them, apparently.) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: MUM no FFL
Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: It was the same meeting in which Bevan was directed to stop screwing married women and John was told to have sex with no more than 12 different women in one month. Was that the same meeting where the faculty senate voted to damn democracy? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: A book you might enjoy
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: That's exactly what the people who drank the kool-aid in Guyana did. Scary. Yes, but you bring it to an absurd extreme. I think few would follow a master's directive to kill themselves. I wouldn't care if it was a test or not, I wouldn't do it. The dance with a master is as complex as one's attachments. MMY in these examples is just honing in for a specific attachment kill. But dude, oh yea of little faith. Like, dude, don't you remember that master-dude who told the disciple-dude to jump off the cliff, and he did without hesitation, and the master climbed down, picked up all the scattered gory pieces of the student-dude, and brought the dude back to life. Way kewl! I'm up for that man. Totally! What a rush, dude, on the way down. Killer! And I heard man, that the student-dude's bad knee, that he blew out on those steep and deep bumps at Telluride, fully blazed, was like totally gone when he got revived. I mean the knee wasn't gone dude, that would be like so funny, but that the badness in his knee was gone. I gotta get me one of them swami-ogga-booga-dudes. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: MUM no FFL
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: It was the same meeting in which Bevan was directed to stop screwing married women and John was told to have sex with no more than 12 different women in one month. Was that the same meeting where the faculty senate voted to damn democracy? Yes. It was a Thursday, I believe. I wonder if john would jump off a cliff, while doing it with 12 women at once, if M. told him too. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: A book you might enjoy
jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: That's exactly what the people who drank the kool-aid in Guyana did. Scary. And those folks in Beverly Hills wanting to hitch a ride on that comet...Hopefully that leasson has been learned. Well, they all castrated themselves sometime before that. I would have thought that might have been a tell-tale sign too. I mean the TMO only suggests tight wet loin-cloths and all. I mean thats like normal and ok. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Prisoner Sues God
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_1576068.html But prosecutors said it would probably be dropped and they were unable to subpoena God to court. But God IS in the court already! Jeez Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/10/05 3:11 PM, anonymousff at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have blimped out with no end in sight. Have you tried using a mirror? I found them kind of crunchy, but if you bake them well, and add some salt and spices, they are ok. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains, startchy veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small frame. So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. ... I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet. I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that rice and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor, Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all you need I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a lot of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent food composition source). One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein, of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly diluted relative to their mass) gives an amino acid mix similar to meat. After 30 years or so, I played with eating eggs, chicken, fish, but no red meat. One issue with fish is the surprisingly high mercury levels, so I abandoned eating that regularly. Though all animal products have their curse (perhaps literally) -- hormones in chickens etc. And I cut way down on carbs -- I gave up, for the most part, grains and beans. And things like honey (I have not used sugar since my teens -- except in specialty things once in a while). And I cut way down on fruit. I think the problem with a ru diet is not the lack of protein but the high level of carbs which do lots of damage to your system over time. People switch to meat thinking their problem is low protein when its really high carbs. You need about 50-60 grams of protein /day if you lead a normal life - athletes in training need 100 or so. And need varies by sex, size etc. Actually protein need is not a settled area. The UN I think sets levels at 30-40. The tests for protein deficiency are bsed on testing nitrogen levels -- and some studies have shown a total rice diet did not bring subjects into protein deficiency. Lots of people eat more protein than they need, which is just then used as calories. Eating adequate protein is a good target. If you have acess to good firm fresh tofu, i find it a good source. Some tofu in supermarkets is horrible stuff. But most healthfood stores carry reasonable to good stuff. I bake mine at low heat -- 200 or so, until it turns a light golden brown. It becomes delicious this way -- IMO, can then be easily slice -- very thin if you want, add to stir fry, etc, and keeps a very long time. Good firm tofu provides about 5 grams of protein / oz. (Look at pacakge, it varies by producer and desnity). So 8 oz of tofu divided between meals (2-3 oz / meal) plus a couple of cups for milk (9g prot/cup) gives you 58 grams / day. And if you eat healthy servings of vegetables (not beans or squashes, but greens, broccoli, asparagus, carrots, celery, etc) you can pick up an extra 10 grams of p. / day -- plus all the other benefits of fresh vegetables. So even 6 oz of tofu, one cup of milk, and lots of fresh veggies will give you 50 grams of good quality protein. No need for meat if you have ethical, ecological or other misgivings about it. I tend to mix it up -- I have added 1 free-range no-hormone eggs to my diet per day (6g) (or so), 4-8 oz firm tofu (20-40 g), a bit of low fat cheese (5-10g), a couple of cups of skim milk (in coffee and tea mostly) (18 g) , a skinless chicken breast once in a while (20-30 g). A few nuts now and then -- not regualrly -- too heavy for me. And lots of fresh vegies (10 g), and fruit only as an occasional treat. The protein to carb ratio of such exceeds the zone, but is not as drastic as atkins. And protion size is critical. I generally eaten good foods - but too much of anything is bad. Try eating half the portion size as normal for a week and see if you feel ok. And fasting once a week -- i did that regualry on thursday in my TMO days, i have found to be a great habit. And extending the fast the second (even thrid day) if I feel good. hope this helps. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to:
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just not true. Following are the 8 necessary amino acids for humans, and their percentages in composition compared to milk. The only one really out of whack is methionine at 55%. But by eating some foods richer in methionine can help balance this out. Brazil nuts are way high -- 250 % higher than milk. And seseme seeds, avacados, eggs, brussel sprouts all exceed the methionine compostion of milk (relative to other amino acids.) Even with balancing, a veg diet might end up at 80% or so methionine of the compositition of milk. But there are no studies that milk has the deal balance of methionine relative to other amino acids. Its probably a good mix for calves, but not necessarily needed by adult humans. I can't find any studies on it. Regardless, by increasing protein intake by 20% over your target (which is pretty nebulous figure to start with, anywhere from 30-80 grams) one would achieve the same amount of methionine as in a dairy diet. Meat has about 15% more methionine per gram of protien than milk, so a 25-30 % or so greater load of veggie protien compared to a meat diet would give a similar level of methionine (its not all meat it would not have to be 30-40% which would be needed for equal methionine levels for a pure meat diet). So still, 8 oz firm tofu, 2 glasses of milk, a brazil nut, a slice of avocado, an oz of cheese and lots of veggies gives you 65-75 grams of protein -- 25-30%% over a target of 50 grams. Thus such a diet would be eqivalent in methionine levels (and higher in other essential amino acids) compared to a meat diet. Tryptophan__119.70% Threonine__ 98.30% Isoleucine__89.10% Leucine_84.30% Lysine__90.20% Methionine__55.00% Phenylalanine___109.20% Valine__81.90% --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hey thanks (and to everyone who responded). That is a well-thought out response based on your first-hand experience. I have been reading about diet for years and would not have been able to synthesize all I've learned that succinctly. I'm going to give buffalo meat, very low in fat and low in saturated fat, wild alaskan salmon and free range chicken, twice per day, for a month and see how it all goes. Again, thanks --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains, startchy veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small frame. So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. ... I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet. I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that rice and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor, Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all you need I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a lot of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent food composition source). One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein, of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly diluted relative to their mass) gives an amino acid mix similar to meat. After 30 years or so, I played with eating eggs, chicken, fish, but no red meat. One issue with fish is the surprisingly high mercury levels, so I abandoned eating that regularly. Though all animal products have their curse (perhaps literally) -- hormones in chickens etc. And I cut way down on carbs -- I gave up, for the most part, grains and beans. And things like honey (I have not used sugar since my teens -- except in specialty things once in a while). And I cut way down on fruit. I think the problem with a ru diet is not the lack of protein but the high level of carbs which do lots of damage to your system over time. People switch to meat thinking their problem is low protein when its really high carbs. You need about 50-60 grams of protein /day if you lead a normal life - athletes in training need 100 or so. And need varies by sex, size etc. Actually protein need is not a settled area. The UN I think sets levels at 30-40. The tests for protein deficiency are bsed on testing nitrogen levels -- and some studies have shown a total rice
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
Yea, no dairy makes it more difficult. But tofu, veggies and some brazil nuts can give you all the high quality protein you need. And if you can tolerate eggs, 1-2 a day helps. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: my quick adder onner---I'm totally allergic to milk and dont even bother trying any of the guaranteed ways to overcome the allergy, none of them are worth the month it takes me to get rid of the aftereffects. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just not true. Following are the 8 necessary amino acids for humans, and their percentages in composition compared to milk. The only one really out of whack is methionine at 55%. But by eating some foods richer in methionine can help balance this out. Brazil nuts are way high -- 250 % higher than milk. And seseme seeds, avacados, eggs, brussel sprouts all exceed the methionine compostion of milk (relative to other amino acids.) Even with balancing, a veg diet might end up at 80% or so methionine of the compositition of milk. But there are no studies that milk has the deal balance of methionine relative to other amino acids. Its probably a good mix for calves, but not necessarily needed by adult humans. I can't find any studies on it. Regardless, by increasing protein intake by 20% over your target (which is pretty nebulous figure to start with, anywhere from 30-80 grams) one would achieve the same amount of methionine as in a dairy diet. Meat has about 15% more methionine per gram of protien than milk, so a 25-30 % or so greater load of veggie protien compared to a meat diet would give a similar level of methionine (its not all meat it would not have to be 30-40% which would be needed for equal methionine levels for a pure meat diet). So still, 8 oz firm tofu, 2 glasses of milk, a brazil nut, a slice of avocado, an oz of cheese and lots of veggies gives you 65-75 grams of protein -- 25-30%% over a target of 50 grams. Thus such a diet would be eqivalent in methionine levels (and higher in other essential amino acids) compared to a meat diet. Tryptophan__119.70% Threonine__ 98.30% Isoleucine__89.10% Leucine_84.30% Lysine__90.20% Methionine__55.00% Phenylalanine___109.20% Valine__81.90% --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hey thanks (and to everyone who responded). That is a well-thought out response based on your first-hand experience. I have been reading about diet for years and would not have been able to synthesize all I've learned that succinctly. I'm going to give buffalo meat, very low in fat and low in saturated fat, wild alaskan salmon and free range chicken, twice per day, for a month and see how it all goes. Again, thanks --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains, startchy veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small frame. So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. ... I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet. I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that rice and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor, Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all you need I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a lot of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent food composition source). One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein, of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly diluted relative to their mass) gives an amino acid mix similar to meat. After 30 years or so, I played with eating eggs, chicken, fish, but no red meat. One issue with fish is the surprisingly high mercury levels, so I abandoned eating that regularly. Though all animal products have their curse (perhaps literally) -- hormones in chickens etc. And I cut way down on carbs -- I gave up
[FairfieldLife] AMD Sales Surpass Intel
AMD Sales Surpass Intel Retail PCs powered by AMD outsold Intel in October, says Current Analysis study. Stacy Cowley, IDG News Service Wednesday, November 09, 2005 Chip-making underdog Advanced Micro Devices edged past Intel in October in supplying processors for the U.S. retail PC market, according to a study by research firm Current Analysis. Intel has a firm hold on the overall number-one chip supplier spot for all U.S. consumer PCs, thanks in part to its exclusive deal with direct-selling powerhouse Dell. Still, AMD's October milestone illustrates the progress it has made in eating away at Intel's dominance. Current Analysis, with headquarters in Washington, D.C., collects its data by surveying major U.S. consumer-electronics retailers. In October, AMD processors were in 49.8 percent of the PCs those retailers sold, compared with a 48.5 percent share for Intel. Competitive Market AMD brushed past Intel in desktop sales in September. An uptick in its notebook sales as well in October gave it the overall edge over Intel for that month, according to the Current Analysis report. AMD did the unthinkable by surpassing Intel in October. Continuing to hold this lead in the holiday season would be a colossal win for the company, Current Analysis Director of Research Matt Sargent said in a written statement accompanying the firm's report. While AMD gained a slight upper hand on market share, Intel is still the clear revenue winner, thanks to the higher average selling price of Intel-based PCs. Intel's revenue share of retail PC sales in October was 57.6 percent to AMD's 40.1 percent, according to AMD's research. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
Bhairitu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Also your diet sounds a little too narrow. Most all nutritionists now agree (even in Ayurveda) that rotation is a good idea and to eat a lot of variety appropriate to your dietary type. Without rotation allergies may occur. Yes, variety is good. Tofu, milk, cheese, some nuts, eggs, an occaional chcken breast, lots of many typed of vegetables, some avacado, some olive oil is my core diet. It meets most or all nutritional requirements, including high quality digestable protein. And vegegtables are so varied. Lots of variety there. But living in the world, I venture off on many other things occcasion, including grains, legumes/beans and fruits, and seafood. The only thing missing between my core diet, and the periodic ventures to the outer ring, is red meat and refined carbs (except ON some special occasions for the latter). Not a requirement as far as I can see, and in my experience. And I take good supplements. Including b12, which is essential for veggers, and pharmacutectal grade omega-3s. - Bhairitu akasha_108 wrote: Just a quick adder on the quality of protein in veg diets. Some people think you can't get enough quality protein from veg sources. Its just not true. Following are the 8 necessary amino acids for humans, and their percentages in composition compared to milk. The only one really out of whack is methionine at 55%. But by eating some foods richer in methionine can help balance this out. Brazil nuts are way high -- 250 % higher than milk. And seseme seeds, avacados, eggs, brussel sprouts all exceed the methionine compostion of milk (relative to other amino acids.) Even with balancing, a veg diet might end up at 80% or so methionine of the compositition of milk. But there are no studies that milk has the deal balance of methionine relative to other amino acids. Its probably a good mix for calves, but not necessarily needed by adult humans. I can't find any studies on it. Regardless, by increasing protein intake by 20% over your target (which is pretty nebulous figure to start with, anywhere from 30-80 grams) one would achieve the same amount of methionine as in a dairy diet. Meat has about 15% more methionine per gram of protien than milk, so a 25-30 % or so greater load of veggie protien compared to a meat diet would give a similar level of methionine (its not all meat it would not have to be 30-40% which would be needed for equal methionine levels for a pure meat diet). So still, 8 oz firm tofu, 2 glasses of milk, a brazil nut, a slice of avocado, an oz of cheese and lots of veggies gives you 65-75 grams of protein -- 25-30%% over a target of 50 grams. Thus such a diet would be eqivalent in methionine levels (and higher in other essential amino acids) compared to a meat diet. Tryptophan__119.70% Threonine__ 98.30% Isoleucine__89.10% Leucine_84.30% Lysine__90.20% Methionine__55.00% Phenylalanine___109.20% Valine__81.90% --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hey thanks (and to everyone who responded). That is a well-thought out response based on your first-hand experience. I have been reading about diet for years and would not have been able to synthesize all I've learned that succinctly. I'm going to give buffalo meat, very low in fat and low in saturated fat, wild alaskan salmon and free range chicken, twice per day, for a month and see how it all goes. Again, thanks --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: anonymousff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: After many years of following a primarily vegetarian diet I have blimped out with no end in sight. It's clear that the grains, startchy veggies, beans will keep packing the pounds on my already not small frame. So, after much research I am now adding some form of meat to my diet twice daily, 3-4 ounces each time. ... I'd really be interested in hearing from others who gave up their vegetarian diet and added meat back in their diet. I went through the same thing some years ago -- figuring out that rice and beans and veggies were not an ideal diet -- though the doctor, Rothenberg?, at the LA av place told me, excellent diet, thats all you need I read a lot, got into the theory behind zone and atkins, tried a lot of high protein and protein adequate (a zone phrase) food combinations. And researched food compostions pretty deeply --created a large spreadsheet dumping data from dept ag data base (excellent food composition source). One thing I was able to confirm is that you can get all the protein, of the right type, from a veg diet. There are 8 amino acids that your body can't produce, and things like tofu and milk -- combined with healthy servings of vegetables ( vegs have protein too, just fairly
[FairfieldLife] Methionine deficiency
Since Methionine is the one essential amino acid often at lowest levels in veg, particularly soy/tofu based diet, symtoms of Methionine deficiency are good to know. Methionine deficiency Methionine deficiency is caused by an abundance of the ß-chain of ß-conglycinin, a seed storage protein that lacks methionine. Methionine deficiency is associated with a deficiency of S-adenosylmethionine which acts as an endogenous anti-depressant. Most people consume plenty of methionine through a typical diet. Lower intakes during pregnancy have been associated with neural tube defects in newborns. Methionine deficiency (primarily in salmonids) leads to reduced growth rate with the development of bilateral cataracts. (Zinc, and cystine deficiencies can also cause cataracts) It is felt that deficiencies of vitamin A and riboflavin also play a role in this lesion. Methionine deficiency causes the liver to metabolize only histidine to form, resulting in an incomplete form of folic acid. Methionine deficiency can cause apathy, loss of pigmentation in hair, edema, lethargy, liver damage, muscle loss, fat loss, skin lesions, weakness, and slowed growth in children. --- More on Methionine Methionine, organic compound, one of the 20 amino acids commonly found in animal proteins. Methionine is one of the several essential amino acids needed in the diet; the human body cannot synthesize it from simpler metabolites. Methionine supplies sulfur and other compounds required by the body for normal metabolism and growth. It is an important source of dietary sulfur. Methionine also belongs to a group of compounds called lipotropics; others in this group include choline, inositol, and betaine. Methionine is one of only two amino acids encoded by just one codon (AUG) in the standard genetic code (tryptophan, encoded by UGG, is the other). L-methionine is a sulfur-containing amino acid that is minimally soluble in water. Its sulfur is non reactive. Methionine functions, uses, and health benefits Methionine reacts with adenosine triphosphate to form S-adenosyl methionine. S-adenosyl methionine is the principal methyl donor in the body and contributes to the synthesis of many important substances, including epinephrine and choline. SAMe is involved in the synthesis of creatine, epinephrine, melatonin and the polyamines spermine and spermidine, among several other substances. Since methionine is the only essential amino acid not present in significant amounts of soybeans, it is produced commercially as an additive for soybean meal. Methionine is incorporated into the N-terminal position of all proteins in eukaryotes and archaea. Methionine plays a role in cysteine, carnitine and taurine synthesis by the transsulfuration pathway, lecithin production, the synthesis of phosphatidylcholine and other phospholipids. Methionine in lipotropic combinations has been proposed for treating endometriosis, a condition in which patches of endometrial tissue from the uterine lining grow outside the uterus. Methionine is an especially important nutrient beneficial for those suffering from estrogen dominance, where the amount of estrogen in the body is excessively high when compared to its opposing hormone called progesterone. The nutrient is believed to help by expediting the removal of excess estrogen from the liver. Methionine is both an antioxidant and lipotrope, meaning it helps remove fat from the liver. Methionine contributes to the hydrophobicity of a protein. Methionine controls the level of beneficial sulfur-containing compounds in the body. These sulfur-containing compounds are in turn vital for defending against toxic compounds like heavy metals in the liver. Methionine helps reduce histamine levels, which are amino acids that control dilation of blood vessels and influence brain function. Dietary sources of methionine Meat, fish, and dairy products are all excellent sources of methionine. L-methionine is also found in fruits and vegetables, but not as abundantly. Small amounts of free L-methionine occur in vegetables, vegetable juices and fermented foods. Vegetarians can obtain methionine from whole grains. Methionine dosage, intake Amino acid requirements vary according to body weight. L-methionine supplements should only be taken with a physician's recommendation. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO), recommended daily L-methionine intake is 13 mg per kg or about one gram daily for adults. During methionine supplementation, intake of taurine, cysteine, and other sulfur containing amino acids, as well as B6 and folic acid should also be included. Toxicity, side effects, interactions, and contraindications Excessive methionine intake, together with inadequate intake of folic acid, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12, can increase the conversion of methionine to homocysteine. Homocysteine is a potentially harmful blood fat that has been linked to
[FairfieldLife] Re: Methionine deficiency
More interesting methionine and deficiency info METHIONINE is an essential amino acid that cannot be synthesized in the body, but must be obtained from food sources or from dietary supplements. Methionine is a precursor for the other sulfur amino acids, cystine, taurine, and glutathione. It has the ability to be a methyl donor to other molecules, which is essential in formulating RNA and DNA. Methionine is necessary for the absorption, transportation, and bioavailability of selenium. In order to be properly utilized, methionine requires the help of its cofactors -- Vitamins B6, B12, Bc, choline, folic acid, and magnesium. Methionine is an antioxidant and, because it has a methyl group, it can combine with active free radicals. However, its derivative, homocysteine, is a powerful oxidant. Adequate levels of B6 are required to allow this harmful compound to be reconverted into an antioxidant substance called cystathione. A high meat intake with an inadequate supply of B6 would produce this type of situation, as would high methionine supplementation without additional B6. The result is cardiovascular disease. Methionine is important in the formation of blood proteins, globulins, and albumins. It also assists in the breakdown of fats, preventing their buildup in the liver and arteries, which can obstruct blood flow to the brain, heart, and kidneys. Methionine is important in the treatment of rheumatic fever and pregnancy-induced toxemia. With the help of choline and folic acid, methionine is a chelator for heavy metals and helps remove them from the body. Methionine is also used as an antidote in paracetamol poisoning -- a pain killer available by prescription and in over-the-counter analgesics -- and to lower urinary pH, making it more acidic. The body uses methionine to derive a brain food called choline. Therefore, choline or lecithin (which is high in choline) should be added to the diet so that the supply of methionine is not depleted. Beans are low in methionine but rich in lysine; and, since most grains are low in lysine and rich in methionine, combining beans and grains will give a full complement of amino acids. Methionine deficiency causes the liver to metabolize only histidine to form, resulting in an incomplete form of folic acid. From this, researchers conclude that methionine is a key factor in regulating the availability of folate. When methionine levels are low, folate becomes trapped in the liver as 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate, causing a temporary folic acid deficiency since this form cannot be used. This is also seen in Vitamin B12 deficiencies and may be an important factor in all allergy and some anemia patients. Since 1970, methionine deficiencies have been attributed to such ailments as toxemia, childhood rheumatic fever, muscle paralysis, hair loss, depression, schizophrenia, Parkinson's, liver deterioration, and impaired growth. Food sources include beans, eggs, fish, garlic, lentils, meat, onions, soybeans, seeds, yogurt. Other names for Methionine include: MET, amino acid M, and 2-amino-4(methylthio)-buanoic acid. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Since Methionine is the one essential amino acid often at lowest levels in veg, particularly soy/tofu based diet, symtoms of Methionine deficiency are good to know. Methionine deficiency Methionine deficiency is caused by an abundance of the ß-chain of ß-conglycinin, a seed storage protein that lacks methionine. Methionine deficiency is associated with a deficiency of S-adenosylmethionine which acts as an endogenous anti-depressant. Most people consume plenty of methionine through a typical diet. Lower intakes during pregnancy have been associated with neural tube defects in newborns. Methionine deficiency (primarily in salmonids) leads to reduced growth rate with the development of bilateral cataracts. (Zinc, and cystine deficiencies can also cause cataracts) It is felt that deficiencies of vitamin A and riboflavin also play a role in this lesion. Methionine deficiency causes the liver to metabolize only histidine to form, resulting in an incomplete form of folic acid. Methionine deficiency can cause apathy, loss of pigmentation in hair, edema, lethargy, liver damage, muscle loss, fat loss, skin lesions, weakness, and slowed growth in children. --- More on Methionine Methionine, organic compound, one of the 20 amino acids commonly found in animal proteins. Methionine is one of the several essential amino acids needed in the diet; the human body cannot synthesize it from simpler metabolites. Methionine supplies sulfur and other compounds required by the body for normal metabolism and growth. It is an important source of dietary sulfur. Methionine also belongs to a group of compounds called lipotropics; others in this group include choline, inositol, and betaine. Methionine is one of only two amino acids encoded by just one codon (AUG
[FairfieldLife] Re: From an ex-member of the Kalki cult
This post (may) put the recent steve klayman post in perspective. It would be interesting to hear his reaction to this new 'scam post. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/message/78765 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Peter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I thought there was something a little stinky about these guys. Their pics have a certain type of darshan, but all this emphasis on celestial experiences is a little unusual. --- Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: (This was from a private letter that was posted on a website, with personal details omitted): I have been associated with the cult of Sri Kalki Bhagavan (and his wife Padmavathi Amma), who positions himself as the Vishnu Avatar, and a God - although in recent years he has made his claims a little indirect, perhaps due to media criticism, and fear of ridicule. I have served this cult for 2 year, attended their Deekshas, and done a lot of promotion for them. I would like to bring to your notice that this cult is pressurizing its INDIAN devotees to donate large sums of wealth, if they want to remain in the good books of the disciples (dasas) who run the show, and progress further. We have even been asked to take loans (the last case was Rs 100,000 which is a large amount), and donate, if we don't have the money. We have been told that we can repay the loans over a few years! From the day we join we are pressurized to bring in new people and send them for the initial 3-day deeksha (costing Rs 5000). This is because to qualify for the higher level we must send 60 (now 30) people for the program. First we are told that the 3-day program will enlighten us (for only Rs 5000!), then we are told - sorry the higher process will enlighten you. So we have no option but to talk others (family, friends etc) into joining and going for the 3-day program. Once we have sent so many people, and we find no change in us, it is very difficult to step out. I have still not told my family that I have left, for loss of face. In order to convince 60 people to go, we have to exaggerate and make tall claims. We have to create a miracle out of each little incident that happened to us (such as getting a green light on the way to work) etc. We have to keep talking of unending grace, and say things like our whole life has changed. We are all basically sincere people, but we start telling lies without realizing it, and a time comes when we are stuck. New people are lured in by promises of unending grace, and then after we tell them lots of stories (most of them are just heard from others, no one has any evidence of them actually happening.), then the disciples ask them to make donations, or go for paid darshans in order to get that unending grace. These darshans are expensive and the latest one is that we can touch Amma's feet for Rs 100,000. Prior to going for the higher process we were all told that in order for the higher process to be a great success we should make this donation. Many of us are very ordinary people, some have left our jobs to pursue a spiritual goal, so the amount is no small order. Even the higher process(two weeks) has made no difference to anyone. Although it does seem to us, that the program for foreigners (21 days, USD 5500) has resulted in some enlightened people (such as Freddie Nielsen and Kiara Windrider - we have heard they are enlightened), however in India there is not even an attempt at spiritual growth of devotees. It is only talk of great celestial miracles, and enlightenment is always round the next corner, after the next darshan (donation). Because of all the stories we perpetuate, the number of devotees has really gone up dramatically, each wondering when his turn for endless grace will come. They claim over 30 million devotees, although I don't know how this figure has been computed. Sarlo, I write this to you primarily because I am concerned that large numbers of poor and low-income people in India are being fleeced by this cult, each hoping that his string of problems will magically vanish after a darshan or deeksha. When nothing happens their suffering increases. We actually convince ourselves that we are happier than even before for a while after the deeksha. In that short period we are pushed to recruit more people and share our great experiences with others. The experiences we narrate are always the tales we were told by the disciples about others who got great grace. Please keep my name under wraps. It is not safe for me, since I have been working very actively promoting this cult, and they know that I can negatively affect them through the internet. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to
[FairfieldLife] Re: eating meat/ostrich anyone?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip I tend to mix it up -- I have added 1 free-range no-hormone eggs to my diet per day (6g) (or so), 4-8 oz firm tofu (20-40 g), a bit low fat cheese (5-10g), a couple of cups of skim milk (in coffee and tea mostly) (18 g) , a skinless chicken breast once in a while (20-30 g). A few nuts now and then -- not regualrly -- too heavy for me. And lots of fresh vegies (10 g), and fruit only as an occasional treat. The protein to carb ratio of such exceeds the zone, but is not as drastic as atkins. 10 grams of vegetables? That isn't very much. Is that a typo? The numbers in parens are the grams of protein. Previously I had stated the grams of protein in each specifically. The parens numbers here were summary to show these foods as a group gave adequate protein. Sorry if that context was not clear. But how could two glasses of milk wight 18 grams? Or lots of vegetables weigh 10 g -- thats a third of an oz) You should also be getting a healthy amount of a good monounsaturated oil, like olive oil, 30 percent of your calories. Nuts have it too; you don't have to eat many of 'em. Are almonds really too heavy for you? The above was just a summary of my main protein sources. See adjacent post -- I get plenty of olive oil, and other fats from avacados (high in monos and methionine) and nuts -- particularly brazil -- higest food source of methionine, and walnuts -- high in omega-3s. And I love cashews, so I indulge at bit. Ground sesseme too, semi-high in methionine. Almonds are hard to digest for me. Roasting on low heat helps. And most importantly, IMO, lots of high quality omega-3 supplements. Nordic Naturals is a good brand -- amazing story on how they produce their oils.) According to the Zone diet, there's nothing wrong wth fruit as long as it's low glycemic--like berries, apples, peaches, and so on. Cherries are the lowest actually. And luckly are my favorite fuit. Everyone needs to find what works for them. I find grains, beans and fruits, in the quantities I used to eat were way too much for me. You may differ. I find a diet with adequate protein, from veg sourses mostly, low carbs and adequate high grade oils work best for me. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003
http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/statebystaterun.cfm?stateid=9 I have not yet located the weekly crime figures for 1993, but here are annual ones. Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003 Many other crime categories were highest in 1993 or near highest -- 1960 -2003 Its odd that 4000 yogic flyers were present in the city forabout 15% of 1993. Particularly given the alleged cumulative nature of ME, its odd that there was not more of an impact in the annual figures. Could there be a reverse ME triggering the peak numbers? Or perhaps is the almost 50% drop in v.crime since 1993 due to the structural changes in consciousness created by the ME techs? Washington DC Violent Crimes Total per 100,000 pop. 1960553.697 1961587.861 1962605.867 1963593.985 1964632.673 1965722.790 1966885.520 19671143.634 19681505.562 19692135.088 19702226.805 19712170.580 19721685.428 19731558.445 19741603.043 19751774.302 19761481.339 19771426.522 19781411.721 19791608.689 19802010.601 19812274.843 19822123.138 19831915.409 19841721.509 19851624.760 19861505.272 19871610.289 19881921.613 19892141.887 19902458.230 19912453.344 19922832.767 19932921.799 19942662.632 19952661.372 19962469.797 19972024.197 19981718.547 19991627.746 20001507.886 20011736.729 20021637.861 20031608.139 You can verify for yourself from this link's data. You can download to a spreadsheet. Divide crimes by population in each yar to normalize to per capita. (Multiply all by 100,000 if you want easier to read figures, and this is the standard form for reporting per capita figures/ per 100,000 population) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003
Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per 100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis, short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be due to factors totally unrelated to the intervention. Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was over a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there seems to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year. The Me study indicated a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But it went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased over 8%. Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual numbers a 4% impact should be discernble. Of course, these figures need to controlled for weather, LE fund, police levels, etc. It may mot be too hard to find that data on-line (volunteers?). Having such, we can all all run some regressions on it, and introduce the ME year as a dummy variable (a standard way to assess if an impact or intervention resulted in a statistically significant effect -- and to see how large the effect was.) It could be a fun exercise and help raise the level of understanding about this type of analysis. 1960553.697 1961587.861 6.170 1962605.867 3.063 1963593.985 -1.961 1964632.673 6.513 1965722.790 14.244 1966885.520 22.514 19671143.63429.148 19681505.56231.647 19692135.08841.813 19702226.8054.296 19712170.580-2.525 19721685.428-22.351 19731558.445-7.534 19741603.0432.862 19751774.30210.683 19761481.339-16.511 19771426.522-3.701 19781411.721-1.038 19791608.68913.952 19802010.60124.984 19812274.84313.142 19822123.138-6.669 19831915.409-9.784 19841721.509-10.123 19851624.760-5.620 19861505.272-7.354 19871610.2896.977 19881921.61319.333 19892141.88711.463 19902458.23014.769 19912453.344-0.199 19922832.76715.466 19932921.7993.143 19942662.632-8.870 19952661.372-0.047 19962469.797-7.198 19972024.197-18.042 19981718.547-15.100 19991627.746-5.284 20001507.886-7.364 20011736.72915.176 20021637.861-5.693 20031608.139-1.815 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] DC Districts
There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were located? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: DC Districts
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/9/05 1:11 PM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were located? We were spread around in different facilities. Across all seven districts? I thought it was mainly one big hotel. Or am I thinking of a different project. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] The Akasha Effect -- Huge Decrease in Crime in DC, Much Larger the ME
In looking at the crime data, I recalled that I lived at the DC center for a month or two in 1972. Looking at the figures, the drop in crime for that year was much greater than in 1993 (the DC project) -- or at least the rise in crime was significantly less. And 1972 was a very hot summer. So while the stats are not temperature adjusted, I believe the adjustments would be similar for each year. So this is just an example of why control variables other than temperature are critical to include in the PRIMARY model and analysis -- which the DC study did not do. Otherwise any nut can suggest and demonstrate spurious correlations that LOOK imppressive -- until one questions the analysis (lack of control variables in the primary analysis). Annual Change in crime, Washington DC 19721993 Violent crime total -22.4% 3.1% Murder / nn Manslaughter-11.7% 4.4% Forcible rape15.0% 53.6% Robbery -31.6% -2.9% Aggravated assault -2.8% 7.1% Property crime total-15.9% 3.1% Burglary-32.6% 9.6% Larceny-theft1.7% 4.7% Motor vehicle theft -34.0% -9.9% Its interestng to note that crime in most categories rose in 1993 - the year of the DC study. The two that fell, were minor decreases. And robbery was up over 50%. While the DC study may have only looked at violent crime, that was their mandate or limitation. There is no reason that I know of why the ME, in theory, should not effect all crimes. If anything, at face value (uncontrolled for other factors) crime rose across the board when the ME was implemeted. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: DC Districts
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/9/05 1:56 PM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rick Archer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: on 11/9/05 1:11 PM, akasha_108 at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were located? We were spread around in different facilities. Across all seven districts? do you know whcih ones? If I got you a district map, could you guestimate #S in each? Not all seven, but several. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
I worked a bit to develop a regression model for annual violent crime data in DC. I sought to create a core model that estimated and accounted for the basic variations in annual violent crime. Once this was done, I added ME variables for the intervention year, 1993, plus lagged ME variables to test if there is a continuing effect of the ME in subsequent years. For the core model I tested if the non-violent aka personal crimes (PC) were significant in explaining variations in violent crimes. Both in the current year, and also lagged variables, to see if personal crimes affected violent crimes in subsequent years. I hypothesized that these PCs could be correlated to strong control variables such as weather, police on the street, LE funding -- but which I have not yet aquired. This correlation hypothesis makes sense in that PC variables should also go up in hot weather and down with increased police and LE $. (And in regression, a variable that is correlated to a good control (independent) variable can be an effective replacement for the actual control variable.) And I pulled down 30 or so national economic variables -- not ideal, but the best I have at the moment -- no DC specific control data yet. This national economic variables should correlate, to a degree, with specific DC economic data, so it is a reasonable first step. I found a five variable model with a fairly good fit (1964-2003) with an adjusted R^2 of .89. That means the model explains 89% of the variation in violent crime. And each variable was statistically significant -- the t-values for each var was 2, meaning the is less than a 5% chance that the variable's contribution is just a fluke, a random chance effect. Several other diagnostics were run: the durbin-watson stat was good, showing that the model did not have undue levels of autocorrelation (variables were not correlated to their previous values -- t-1, t-2, etc.) And there was low correlation between independent variables, called non-collinearity -- an important characteristic for models to have. Another diagnostic, hetroscadasticity was mild. So generally, for a quick model, it was fairly strong. In the below table, for years 1990-2003 you can see the actual annual changes in violent crime in DC in the first column, and the estimated or predicted series from the model in the second column. As you can see, it generally rises and falls in synch with the actual crime data. Having a good core model as a baseline, I then added some ME variables. First 3 variables -- one for the intervention year, and two for subsequent years, to see if there were continuing effects. And then another model with 5 ME variables -- for the test year and 4 subsequent years. The ME effects were interesting. Their effect in the model was to show about a 4% increase in violent crime from the ME in the test year, and then a continuing decreasing crime impact of about 5% in the next 2-4 years. The hypothesis could be that in the intervention ME year, things are stirred up in the collective consciousness -- social unstressing so to speak, and then good effects emerge in the subsequent years. However, the significance of the ME variables was weak. There is a 20-50% chance that they are having no more impact than random chance. It could jsut be the abortion effect we have discussed (per Levitt) or other untested factors. Better DC specific data, more economic and demographic and weather data, and the acquistion of monthly data should shed light on this and determine better if there is a significant ME effect that can be demonstrated by this type of analysis. For now, its an interesting and thought-provoking result. Haiglin and all may have been looking at the wrong thing -- current ME effects, instead of where the action may really be --- future effects. That is, ME may have its effect via long-term structural changes in collective consciousness, not immediate ones -- which actually may be negative (washing machine effect, perhaps). Actual - Predicted No ME ME 3 ME 5 199014.8% 12.3% 12.0% 7.8% 1991-0.2% 1.6%1.4%4.4% 199215.5% 4.5%4.5%9.6% 19933.1%-2.0% 3.1%4.9% 1994-8.9% -6.2% -8.9% -10.6% 19950.0%6.3%0.0%0.0% 1996-7.2% -2.6% -2.6% -0.7% 1997-18.0% -15.7% -16.0% -11.1% 1998-15.1% -12.6% -12.6% -7.4% 1999-5.3% -8.2% -8.1% -6.6% 2000-7.4% -5.6% -5.6% -6.1% 200115.2% 8.2%8.1%8.0% 2002-5.7% -0.5% -0.6% 8.2% 2003-1.8% 0.0%-0.1% -7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables I Vars Beta Std. Error t-value Sig LAR 0.146493072 0.086854908 1.68664126 0.101712298 ROB 0.540438633 0.054472023 9.92139825 3.86814E-11 MT-20.118127037 0.05135057 2.300403597 0.028316925 UNEI0.029748611 0.020410475 1.457516846 0.155030356
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Another try at the tables Actual - Predicted No ME ME 3 ME 5 1990 14.8%12.3% 12.0%7.8% 1991 -0.2% 1.6% 1.4%4.4% 1992 15.5% 4.5% 4.5%9.6% 1993 3.1%-2.0% 3.1%4.9% 1994 -8.9%-6.2% -8.9% -10.6% 1995 0.0% 6.3% 0.0%0.0% 1996 -7.2%-2.6% -2.6% -0.7% 1997 -18.0% -15.7%-16.0% -11.1% 1998 -15.1% -12.6%-12.6% -7.4% 1999 -5.3%-8.2% -8.1% -6.6% 2000 -7.4%-5.6% -5.6% -6.1% 2001 15.2% 8.2% 8.1%8.0% 2002 -5.7%-0.5% -0.6%8.2% 2003 -1.8% 0.0% -0.1% -7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables I Vars Beta Std. Error t-value Sig LAR0.146490.086 1.6866 0.10171 ROB0.540430.054 9.9213 3.86814E-11 MT-2 0.118120.051 2.3004 0.02831 UNEI 0.029740.020 1.4575 0.15503 ME 0.041840.049 0.8468 0.40358 ME-1 -0.035630.0502 -0.7087 0.48376 ME-2 -0.067910.0505 -1.3423 0.18922 ME3 -0.053250.0492 -1.0813 0.28790 ME4 -0.038370.0539 -0.7114 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Another try at the tables Actual - Predicted No ME ME 3ME 5 1990 14.8% 12.3% 12.0% 7.8% 1991-0.2% 1.6%1.4%4.4% 199215.5% 4.5%4.5%9.6% 19933.1%-2.0% 3.1%4.9% 1994-8.9% -6.2% -8.9% -10.6% 19950.0%6.3%0.0%0.0% 1996-7.2% -2.6% -2.6% -0.7% 1997-18.0% -15.7% -16.0% -11.1% 1998-15.1% -12.6% -12.6% -7.4% 1999-5.3% -8.2% -8.1% -6.6% 2000-7.4% -5.6% -5.6% -6.1% 200115.2% 8.2%8.1%8.0% 2002-5.7% -0.5% -0.6% 8.2% 2003-1.8% 0.0%-0.1% -7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables I Vars BetaStd. Error t-value Sig LAR 0.1464 0.086 1.6866 0.10171 ROB 0.5404 0.054 9.9213 3.86814E-11 MT -2 0.1 0.051 2.3004 0.02831 UNEI0.0297 0.020 1.4575 0.15503 ME 0.0418 0.049 0.8468 0.40358 ME-1-0.035 0.0502 -0.7087 0.48376 ME-2-0.067 0.0505 -1.3423 0.18922 ME3 -0.053 0.0492 -1.0813 0.28790 ME4 -0.038 0.0539 -0.7114 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Another try at the tables ___Actual - Predicted ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___ 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8% 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4% 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6% 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9% 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6% 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0% 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7% 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1% 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4% 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6% 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1% 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0% 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2% 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables IVars_ Beta_ Std.Er__t-value__ Sig LAR___ 0.1464___ 0.086___1.6866___ 0.10171 ROB___ 0.5404___ 0.054___9.9213___ 3.86814E-11 MT -2 0.1___ 0.051___2.3004___ 0.02831 UNEI__ 0.0297___ 0.020___1.4575___ 0.15503 ME 0.0418___ 0.049___0.8468___ 0.40358 ME-1__ -0.035___ 0.050___-0.708___ 0.48376 ME-2__ -0.067___ 0.050___-1.342___ 0.18922 ME3___ -0.053___ 0.049___-1.081___ 0.28790 ME4___ -0.038___ 0.053___-0.711___ 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
An Excel graph of the first table is in the archives at the below link. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/files/Maharishi%20Effect%20Published/ --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Another try at the tables ___Actual - Predicted ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___ 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8% 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4% 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6% 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9% 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6% 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0% 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7% 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1% 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4% 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6% 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1% 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0% 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2% 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables IVars_Beta_ Std.Er__t-value__ Sig LAR___0.1464___ 0.086___1.6866___ 0.10171 ROB___0.5404___ 0.054___9.9213___ 3.86814E-11 MT-2 0.1___ 0.051___2.3004___ 0.02831 UNEI__0.0297___ 0.020___1.4575___ 0.15503 ME0.0418___ 0.049___0.8468___ 0.40358 ME-1__-0.035___ 0.050___-0.708___ 0.48376 ME-2__-0.067___ 0.050___-1.342___ 0.18922 ME3___-0.053___ 0.049___-1.081___ 0.28790 ME4___-0.038___ 0.053___-0.711___ 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Annual Regression Model of DC ME Project -- Interesting Results
Given that the ME intervnetion was only about 15% of 1993, if the technology were applied full time, there are some interesting implications. The initial effects could / should be six times stronger. Thus the washing machine first year might see a 25% or so increase in crime, and subsequent years could / would realize a 30% decrease. However, the more interesting thing is that the model, in its rudamantary stage, indicates that the results are cumulative for at least four subsequent years (and perhaps more, 4 years that were all that were tested.) Thus EACH year of the program could have this inital profile: 25% increase in first year, and 30% reduction in the next four years. For simplicity, lets assume the increase in year 1 and decrease in later years are equal 25%. Thus the cumulaltive effects would look like this for a permanent program. Year_Cummultive ME effects 1+25% 2+25% - 25% = 0% 3+25% - 25% -25% = -25% 4+25% - 25% -25% - 25% = -50% 5+25% - 25% -25% - 25% -25% = -75% 6+25% - 25% -25% - 25% -25% -25% = -100% Per this cummulative effect, highly speculative at this point, but a straight extrapolation of modeling results, in six years, crime would be eliminated totally. == akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote (prior post): The ME effects were interesting. Their effect in the model was to show about a 4% increase in violent crime from the ME in the test year, and then a continuing decreasing crime impact of about 5% in the next 2-4 years. The hypothesis could be that in the intervention ME year, things are stirred up in the collective consciousness -- social unstressing so to speak, and then good effects emerge in the subsequent years. However, the significance of the ME variables was weak. There is a 20-50% chance that they are having no more impact than random chance. It could jsut be the abortion effect we have discussed (per Levitt) or other untested factors. Better DC specific data, more economic and demographic and weather data, and the acquistion of monthly data should shed light on this and determine better if there is a significant ME effect that can be demonstrated by this type of analysis. For now, its an interesting and thought-provoking result. Haiglin and all may have been looking at the wrong thing -- current ME effects, instead of where the action may really be --- future effects. That is, ME may have its effect via long-term structural changes in collective consciousness, not immediate ones -- which actually may be negative (washing machine effect, perhaps). ___Actual - Predicted ___No ME__ME 3ME 5___ 1990 14.8%12.3%___12.0%7.8% 1991-0.2%_1.6%1.4%_4.4% 199215.5%_4.5%4.5%_9.6% 19933.1%__-2.0%___3.1%_4.9% 1994-8.9%_-6.2%___-8.9%-10.6% 19950.0%__6.3%0.0%_0.0% 1996-7.2%_-2.6%___-2.6%___-0.7% 1997-18.0%-15.7%__-16.0%__-11.1% 1998-15.1%-12.6%__-12.6%__-7.4% 1999-5.3%_-8.2%___-8.1% __-6.6% 2000-7.4%_-5.6%___-5.6%___-6.1% 200115.2%_8.2%8.1%_8.0% 2002-5.7%_-0.5%___-0.6%8.2% 2003-1.8%_0.0%-0.1%___-7.5% -- Estimated Independent Variables IVars_ Beta_ Std.Er__t-value__ Sig LAR___ 0.1464___ 0.086___1.6866___ 0.10171 ROB___ 0.5404___ 0.054___9.9213___ 3.86814E-11 MT -2 0.1___ 0.051___2.3004___ 0.02831 UNEI__ 0.0297___ 0.020___1.4575___ 0.15503 ME 0.0418___ 0.049___0.8468___ 0.40358 ME-1__ -0.035___ 0.050___-0.708___ 0.48376 ME-2__ -0.067___ 0.050___-1.342___ 0.18922 ME3___ -0.053___ 0.049___-1.081___ 0.28790 ME4___ -0.038___ 0.053___-0.711___ 0.48213 Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Then they discovered he was making derogatory public comments to the media and was strongly biased *against* the whole enterprise. When he demanded to see their data, they were concerned that he would twist it and misrepresent their findings. They no longer trusted him to give an honest account. That's not how Barry sees it, but given that he doesn't see his own biases very well, I'm not surprised. Wasn't he requesting in his research role at th U of Iowa? ifso, Personality issues should not enter into it and MIU should have honored a request from an adjacent and major university. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip Why do you think they MIU researchers refused to share their raw data with the University of Iowa? As Judy pointed out,that was for the Jerusalem study. The DC study crime data comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics, a book published yearly by... the FBI. The other data was also from public sources. Actually, the data for the Jerusalem study were also publicly available. What Markovsky wanted was not the raw data but the data from their statistical analysis. He wanted to see all their calculations, in other words--what went into their study that was not reported in the published paper. Its a legitimate request, on the face of it. In fact, there are proposals floating around to make that information a formal part of any published study, given how cheap CD ROM burning is these days. Or net archiving. Just set up a gmail account for the study -- for archiving all data, all analysis outputs, and correspondence debating key issues of the study. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: As Judy pointed out,that was for the Jerusalem study. The DC study crime data comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics, a book published yearly by... the FBI. The other data was also from public sources. But the problem is, they only have weekly data on line back to 1995, and do not appear to sell the hard volumes for the earlier years -- that I can find on their site. And all the control variables are hard to find for that time period-- if at all -- particularly if they found and used good weekly data on weather, police on street, LE funding, employment and personal income by cohort, etc. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per 100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis, short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be due to factors totally unrelated to the intervention. Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was over a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there seems to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year. The Me study indicated a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But it went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased over 8%. Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual numbers a 4% impact should be discernble. Geeze, Akasha, you just supported the ME while trying to discredit it. If the ME hadn't been in effect to cause a 4% decrease (according to you) in annual crime concentrated during the Summer months, the annual rate icnrease would have been 7%, which is comparable to the next year's 8 percent. Why do you feel that I am trying to discredit the ME study?I am simply trying to understand what was done, and am beginning to do my own analysis to explore the effect. I am not seeking any end result, i am not trying to prove or disprove anything. I am trying to see if there is such an effect. Via past studies, and via new analysis. btw, I don't really buy your arguments above of % changes, but we. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: DC Districts
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: There are 7 districts in DC -- and I have found some annual crime data for them. Does anyone know which district the ME facilities were located? The data was weekly. And was for the entire city. And do you know how i can obtain it? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Washington DC Violent Crimes: 1993 highest rate per capita 1960-2003
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I wish their data was available -- to see what they actually tested for and the interval of the data (annual / weekly, etc). The problem is a lot of important variables totest for in this regard are usually available in annual not monthly or weekly form. Maybe weekly was available a decade + ago but its hard to find now. For instance, even the FBI crime data is available weekly only back to 1995 (through them). They used the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics data of that period, which WAS in in weekly form. Are you sure its not still? I am sure its in some libraries in hard copy form. I am seeking it online in digital form. On FBI site I can only find weekly data to 1995. I found annual data forDC back to 1960 at Bureau of Judicial Statistics. And deomgraphic and economic variables are often only available in annual form. And most available weather data is averaged over 20-40 years to give typical days. But for this analysis, the actual annual and monthly time series are required. WEekly and monthly, I would think, not annual, unless you're talking about comparing similar sub-annual periods year-over-year... I would love monthly data, but some of the best most detailed demographic data is actual by census period --every 10 years. Some annual updates to that for big bucks is available. Some monthly for current time frame, like employment, personal income by cohort etc. But try to find that in monthly form for 1993. And before as would be necessary for estimating strong models. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: As Judy pointed out,that was for the Jerusalem study. The DC study crime data comes from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics, a book published yearly by... the FBI. The other data was also from public sources. But the problem is, they only have weekly data on line back to 1995, and do not appear to sell the hard volumes for the earlier years -- that I can find on their site. And all the control variables are hard to find for that time period- - if at all -- particularly if they found and used good weekly data on weather, police on street, LE funding, employment and personal income by cohort, etc. Have you asked MUM if you can getthis stuff from them? Not yet. Not sure who to ask. Any suggestions? But I want to run down outside data first. I am quite sure they did not look at all relevant control variables. 9no one does) Lots of of new research, a la levitt, has highlighted new stuff to look at. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: For example, in another post akasha complains that only violent crime statistics were studied Not a complaint, just an observation. and expresses suspicion that the researchers left out statistics on nonviolent crime because they didn't demonstrate any effect. Yes, thats not a high crime on their part. If they found non violent crimes went down dramatically, I am confident the summary of the study would highlight non-violent crimes. Don't you? Really? Thats how analysis under pressure works. Its what happens in the real world. People make their best case. Not a high crime. But one needs to be aware that the researchers here, as in many other places, had incentives to look for answers that met sponsors desires and expecatations. No different from 1000's of corporate analysts. And 100's of non-profit foundation analysts. But maybe you have to have been there in various situations and cases to understand this. With regard to akasha's comment above about a single model, the way he states it makes me think he does not understand how the study was done and why. Ok, if I have misunderstoood, please explain it to me. Though you appear to attribute an agenda to me, I have none. I am trying to understand both the data and the analysis. I certainly could be wrong. I didn't say it *couldn't* be the case that a single model could do what the researchers intended, only that I didn't see *how* it could. OK. Akasha's explanations are not on a level that I can comprehend, I do my best, really, I do try to make it understandable. Think about it. For me it would be a happier place if people understood some basics of modeling, statistics and regression. nor has he made much of an effort to help me out. Sorry if it has not been apparent. Actually I wrote some posts, detailing how regression works, with you in mind, Regardless, I am happy to help you out in understanding any knowledge I might have picked up along the way. Just ask, or perhaps be receptive to attempts to share knowledge. But he hasn't seen the study. It used highly sopisticated statistical methodology, and I don't think it's even possible to speculate about what was done on that level of sophistication. Well, its not magic. Based on a survey of available data, constraints on such and all, I can speculate with some degree of reasonablness as to what issues they faced, and how they approached the problems methodologically. I have been there. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Other Earth-like worlds?
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rory Goff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Rory Goff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, jim_flanegin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip Off and away, to play, and play, and play! Ooops! Damn, just gave away the ultra top secret of life... Yes, all those strata are essentially a mind-game to me -- the only one that really counts as far as governance is concerned is our intimacy with and Love of Divine Mother, for She is Our marriage to and dance with all of creation :-) And speaking of the play of Divine Mother, I *highly* recommend chanting the Sri Lalithambika Sahasranama Stotram -- the 1000 names of Mother Divine :-) Can you chant all 1008 names from memory Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, authfriend [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: For example, in another post akasha complains that only violent crime statistics were studied Not a complaint, just an observation. and expresses suspicion that the researchers left out statistics on nonviolent crime because they didn't demonstrate any effect. Yes, thats not a high crime on their part. If they found non violent crimes went down dramatically, I am confident the summary of the study would highlight non-violent crimes. Don't you? They wouldn't have found that nonviolent crimes went down dramatically because they weren't looking at nonviolent crime statistics because the study was on violent crime only. duh Really? Thats how analysis under pressure works. Its what happens in the real world. People make their best case. Not a high crime. But one needs to be aware that the researchers here, as in many other places, had incentives to look for answers that met sponsors desires and expecatations. For God's sake, they *predicted* that violent crime would drop by 20 percent when they announced the demonstration project. This is the TMO, remember? TM True Believer researchers. They weren't trying to please sponsors, they were out to confirm their own convictions. No different from 1000's of corporate analysts. And 100's of non-profit foundation analysts. But maybe you have to have been there in various situations and cases to understand this. It isn't a matter of *understanding* it, it's a GIVEN. Good *grief*, akasha. You're just not paying attention. They announced, with great fanfare, that the project would demonstrate a 20 percent drop in violent crime. They announced the protocol of the study that was going to prove it beforehand. Can you *imagine* the horselaughs if they'd turned around and used nonviolent crime because the stats were better? Get real! They never even considered looking at nonviolent crime. That isn't what they were out to prove. okie dokie. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Was Lynch - Now Crime, Abortion the DC study
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Eh, I'm with akasha on this one. And not on all issues? :) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Lynch former paperboy
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Well, maybe not geniuses. The dramatic decrease in the crime rate in the 90's has been shown to be primarily the result of Roe v. Wade. I still suspect a Post Hoc fallacy in that finding, but whatever... And I still suspect you have not read the book in which Levitt presents a strong case for causality, but whatever ... Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Roe v. Wade (was paperboy)
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, bmorry2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Do some research on partial birth abortion. This will help you to decide what a baby looks likein case you are not sure. P.S. In response to others: naturally ejaculated sperm, menstruation (where an unfertilize egg is discarded), and spontaneous miscarriage are not violently induced--like legal abortion. Again, refer to the literature on partial birth abortion. So are you against all abortion -- as implied in previous posts? Or are you only opposed to partial-birth abortions? Or are you opposed to both but playing bait and switch / strawman games? If violently induced is your criteria for opposing abortion, then you would appear to approve of the use of the morning after pill and the oral abortion pill. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[FairfieldLife] Re: Roe v. Wade (was paperboy)
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, bmorry2000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Do some research on partial birth abortion. This will help you to decide what a baby looks likein case you are not sure. P.S. In response to others: naturally ejaculated sperm, menstruation (where an unfertilize egg is discarded), and spontaneous miscarriage are not violently induced--like legal abortion. Again, refer to the literature on partial birth abortion. So are you against all abortion -- as implied in previous posts? Or are you only opposed to partial-birth abortions? Or are you opposed to both but playing bait and switch / strawman games? If violently induced is your criteria for opposing abortion, then you would appear to approve of the use of the morning after pill and the oral abortion pill. Can anyone clarify with direct or spousal experience: Are abortions in the first trimester, particulary by second month, violent in nature. Is violent induction a reasonable and fair way to describe such early term abortions? Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM ~- To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
