Re: Global warming silliness
On Sat, Nov 23, 2013 at 6:36 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: Radiation exposure levels for most people were elevated so minutely above background that it may be impossible to tease out carcinogenic effects from other risk factors, such as smoking or diet. Hard to reconcile that with this: An estimated 900,000 terabecquerels of radioactive substances were released into the atmosphere in March 2011 by the triple meltdowns at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Thursday. Why are those 2 facts supposed to be incompatible? You continue to speak of the Fukushima disaster in the past tense, True. when in fact this is still very much an unfolding event. I believe the majority of the radiation that Fukushima is going to put into the environment it has already done so; but if I am wrong you have the opportunity to make money off of my error. I will make you the following bet, if more radiation is released between today and November 24 2014 than was released between March 11 2011 and today I will give you $1000, if more radiation is not released you only have to give me $100. I'm giving you 10 to 1 odds , so do we have a bet? Furthermore the statement you quote is the historic BS half-truth metric that the pro-nuclear lobby loves to trot out That BS comes from the journal Science, it and Nature are the 2 most respected journals in the world! I get my information from scientists, where do you get yours, environmental dimwits who make their living by scaring people? The intellectual dishonesty lies in speaking only of exposure, while ignoring contamination; That makes no sense, you can't get contaminated if you're not exposed. And speaking of intellectual dishonesty, environmental groups say they're for renewable energy because global warming is of supreme existential importance, but just yesterday i was reading how a company called Duke Energy Renewables had to give a one million dollar fine to environmental groups because its wind farm killed 14 eagles. The American Bird Conservancy no doubt likes the money and said the fine was a positive first step but the government needs to do more. Pure undiluted hypocrisy. Exposure levels can be very low, but if you are one of the unlucky bio-organisms to become contaminated you get cancer, And other than the significant exceptions of Fukushima and Chernobyl, Nuclear power plants only release 1% as much radioactivity into the environment as a coal power plant of the same size. Coal contains both radioactive Uranium and Thorium and when it is burned it goes right up the chimney and into the air. Coal also produces a witches brew of other substances that, although not radioactive, are highly carcinogenic; and unlike nuclear power coal produces lots and lots of greenhouse gasses that environmentalists keep telling us are horrible. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of meekerdb Sent: Friday, November 22, 2013 10:32 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 11/22/2013 7:03 PM, Chris de Morsella wrote: From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Friday, November 22, 2013 12:43 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. And people who term the Fukushima disaster as a run of the mill industrial accident - which you said - are so far out of touch with reality that nothing they say can be trusted. And it ain't ad hominem if its true. Far worst than ad hominem (a pompous phrase for name calling) is making up quotes about somebody that they never said. Perhaps somebody said Fukushima disaster was a run of the mill industrial accident but is sure as hell wasn't me! Fukushima was the second worse nuclear accident of all time. What I did say is that Fukushima killed fewer people than a run of the mill coal power plant over its 30 year lifetime, even if that coal plant never suffered a industrial accident. And you know this how? It is very hard to prove causality for cancer. How many extra cases of cancer will there be over the next decades and going out in time over one hundred thousand years or more as a result of the mass dispersal of all manner of radionuclides into the biosphere? You do not know how these radionuclides will migrate in the biosphere; nor how many of them will find their way through various bio-uptake channels and become incorporated into living tissue where they will wreak havoc on nearby cells DNA (in fact even weak alpha emitters once incorporated into living tissue are potentially cancer causing, because of the very close proximity of the DNA). There is a gulf of difference between the low levels of radiation received - on average - from the highly diluted but very widely dispersed of nuclear pollutants that the Fukushima disaster has released - AND continues to release AND still very much has the potential to release huge amounts - and the continuous, localized irradiation that any living tissue that is near a microscopic spec, or even molecular scale clump of the nastier varietals. A slew of hot short to midterm half-life radionuclides including Cessium-137 (with a 30 year half-life), Strontium-90, Iodine-131 for example have been and continue to be released. U-235 is also showing up in samples. Exactly, and a lot of those radionuclides are released in coal mining and coal burning. Radon is the primary cause of lung cancer among non-smokers (est. 21,000 per year in the U.S.). Sure. And the radon is not all coal releases. Mercury and a host of other nasty stuff goes right up out the smoke stack. A recent Harvard Medical School report estimated the annualized externalized cost of coal to be close to $400 billion. In fact, if coal had to price in the full range of downstream costs entailed by burning it, overnight, it would become one of the costliest energy sources on the planet. But let's not minimize the risks posed by the melted cores of units #1, #2, #3 - ( esp. #3 - because it was fueled with MOX (a blend of uranium and P-239 U-235)). The cores seem to have been compromised and the corium could be now burning its way through the outer containment structures... or worse already be slowly melting through the rock below. A hot blob of corium melt cannot be effectively cooled by water because of its relatively very small surface area - as compared to the reactor rods from whence it was made. Corium melt is incredibly hot. Now as it diffuses and mixes into more and more material it will of course cool. If it does get to that stage it will be one hell of a mess. Chris Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Fri, Nov 22, 2013 at 10:03 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: *From:* everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto: everything-list@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *John Clark *Sent:* Friday, November 22, 2013 12:43 PM *To:* everything-list@googlegroups.com *Subject:* Re: Global warming silliness On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: It is very hard to prove causality for cancer. That is absolutely true. A study on Fukushima was published in the May 20 2011 issue of the journal Science, it said: Radiation exposure levels for most people were elevated so minutely above background that it may be impossible to tease out carcinogenic effects from other risk factors, such as smoking or diet. We know from studies of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivers that those who got 100 millisieverts of radiation had a 1.05 increased risk of developing some form of cancer at some time during the next 70 years of their life, but in Fukushima nobody except plant workers received more than 40 millisieverts, and only a few who lived very close to the plant got even that much. you come across as Dr. Strangelove The true Dr. Strangelove are environmentalists who claim they can keep the 7 billion people on this planet alive even after abandoning nuclear power and fossil fuel using nothing but hummingbirds and moonbeams and wishful thinking. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2013 10:55 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Fri, Nov 22, 2013 at 10:03 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Friday, November 22, 2013 12:43 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: It is very hard to prove causality for cancer. That is absolutely true. A study on Fukushima was published in the May 20 2011 issue of the journal Science, it said: Radiation exposure levels for most people were elevated so minutely above background that it may be impossible to tease out carcinogenic effects from other risk factors, such as smoking or diet. Hard to reconcile that with this: An estimated 900,000 terabecquerels of radioactive substances were released into the atmosphere in March 2011 by the triple meltdowns at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Thursday. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/05/25/news/fukushima-meltdowns-march- 2011-fallout-higher-than-estimated-near-90-terabecquerels-tepco/#.UpEy25 3Tkkk This places the Fukushima disaster - in terms of release so far - at about one fifth the scale of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Furthermore the reactors at Fukushima have not been stabilized, except if by stabilized you intend hanging from a cliff by your fingernails. Of course this is not what the public relations departments of the pro nuclear lobby would have us all believe. You continue to speak of the Fukushima disaster in the past tense, when in fact this is still very much an unfolding event. Units #1,2,3 are not under control. The fuel rods in those cores have completely melted and the containment structures are riddled with holes and cracks. The containment structures of those units may well already have been breached. No one really knows, the areas in the basement levels beneath are far too hot - not a good sign that everything is still contained. At the #4 SFP unit they have had to delay removing fuel rods, because many of them have become so badly damaged. Furthermore the statement you quote is the historic BS half-truth metric that the pro-nuclear lobby loves to trot out every time there is a nuclear disaster. Exposure is not the whole story. Pretending that it is, in order to cover the fact that there is another parallel, but orthogonal story going on, is basically lying by omission. Nuclear contamination is occurring and will continue to occur for as long as these radionuclides remain radioactive and are circulating within the biosphere. And that is going to be for a very long time. People, animals, plants, are going to be feeling the effects of the long lived radionuclides that have - and very much still have the potential of being released - for many tens of thousands of years. You know the half-life figures for U-235 P-239. Do you have any idea how much of that stuff is in those melted cores and containment structures that are leaking like sieves? Under control - sure - only in the strange universe of the pro-nuclear lobby spin. The intellectual dishonesty lies in speaking only of exposure, while ignoring contamination; low levels of average exposure do not mean there is no risk. The actual risk also depends on the effects from nuclear contamination. Contamination is in fact a very different process from exposure. Exposure levels can be very low, but if you are one of the unlucky bio-organisms to become contaminated you get cancer, or one of the many auto-immune and other chronic degenerative diseases that various types of radionuclide contamination can cause, also depending on the organ or area that has been contaminated. Proving that the cancer you got was caused by the radionuclide you have lodged in your lungs, or kidneys (or any number of internal clumping areas (plaques for example) - or that has become a part of your own living tissue - is hard. It must be reconstructed through statistical analysis of actuary data. As the previous struggle with Big Tobacco has shown it is hard to prove causation. We know from studies of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivers that those who got 100 millisieverts of radiation had a 1.05 increased risk of developing some form of cancer at some time during the next 70 years of their life, but in Fukushima nobody except plant workers received more than 40 millisieverts, and only a few who lived very close to the plant got even that much. Once again - the exposure story is not the whole story. If you become contaminated and die - how does it help you that the average exposure (above background) is very small? you come across as Dr
Re: Global warming silliness
On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. And people who term the Fukushima disaster as a “run of the mill industrial accident” – which you said – are so far out of touch with reality that nothing they say can be trusted. And it ain’t ad hominem if its true. Far worst than ad hominem (a pompous phrase for name calling) is making up quotes about somebody that they never said. Perhaps somebody said Fukushima disaster was a “run of the mill industrial accident” but is sure as hell wasn't me! Fukushima was the second worse nuclear accident of all time. What I did say is that Fukushima killed fewer people than a run of the mill coal power plant over its 30 year lifetime, even if that coal plant never suffered a industrial accident. And I still think fans of the Green Party are hillbillies. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Friday, November 22, 2013 12:43 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. And people who term the Fukushima disaster as a run of the mill industrial accident - which you said - are so far out of touch with reality that nothing they say can be trusted. And it ain't ad hominem if its true. Far worst than ad hominem (a pompous phrase for name calling) is making up quotes about somebody that they never said. Perhaps somebody said Fukushima disaster was a run of the mill industrial accident but is sure as hell wasn't me! Fukushima was the second worse nuclear accident of all time. What I did say is that Fukushima killed fewer people than a run of the mill coal power plant over its 30 year lifetime, even if that coal plant never suffered a industrial accident. And you know this how? It is very hard to prove causality for cancer. How many extra cases of cancer will there be over the next decades and going out in time over one hundred thousand years or more as a result of the mass dispersal of all manner of radionuclides into the biosphere? You do not know how these radionuclides will migrate in the biosphere; nor how many of them will find their way through various bio-uptake channels and become incorporated into living tissue where they will wreak havoc on nearby cells DNA (in fact even weak alpha emitters once incorporated into living tissue are potentially cancer causing, because of the very close proximity of the DNA). There is a gulf of difference between the low levels of radiation received - on average - from the highly diluted but very widely dispersed of nuclear pollutants that the Fukushima disaster has released - AND continues to release AND still very much has the potential to release huge amounts - and the continuous, localized irradiation that any living tissue that is near a microscopic spec, or even molecular scale clump of the nastier varietals. A slew of hot short to midterm half-life radionuclides including Cessium-137 (with a 30 year half-life), Strontium-90, Iodine-131 for example have been and continue to be released. U-235 is also showing up in samples. To cite the low levels of average radiation dosage received from the vastly diluted admixture of the deadly radioactive poisons released into our biosphere by the Fukushima nuclear disaster and then say end of discussion is misleading. You, do not know what the ultimate effects of Fukushima will be; nor how many cancer and other chronic illnesses (it is increasingly clear that many types of auto-immune other chronic diseases have environmental factors) will ultimately result from it. You display a surprising ignorance of the interconnected nature of living systems and how life collectively acts like a globally distributed giant sieve that filters huge amounts of air and water through its cells and organs each year, and that as life eats life many things become concentrated up the food chain. You are quite good at making loud noises, and belittling others; perhaps you mistake this for brilliance -- I don't know (nor much care actually), but I do know what the effects of Fukushima have been so far. It caused 160,000 people to have to leave their lives, their homes, their friends, their communities; one third of these people still remain in temporary housing. And I still think fans of the Green Party are hillbillies. And you come across as Dr. Strangelove. Chris John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/22/2013 7:03 PM, Chris de Morsella wrote: *From:*everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *John Clark *Sent:* Friday, November 22, 2013 12:43 PM *To:* everything-list@googlegroups.com *Subject:* Re: Global warming silliness On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com mailto:cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. And people who term the Fukushima disaster as a run of the mill industrial accident -- which you said -- are so far out of touch with reality that nothing they say can be trusted. And it ain't ad hominem if its true. Far worst than ad hominem (a pompous phrase for name calling) is making up quotes about somebody that they never said. Perhaps somebody said Fukushima disaster was a run of the mill industrial accident but is sure as hell wasn't me! Fukushima was the second worse nuclear accident of all time. What I did say is that Fukushima killed fewer people than a run of the mill coal power plant over its 30 year lifetime, even if that coal plant never suffered a industrial accident. And you know this how? It is very hard to prove causality for cancer. How many extra cases of cancer will there be over the next decades and going out in time over one hundred thousand years or more as a result of the mass dispersal of all manner of radionuclides into the biosphere? You do not know how these radionuclides will migrate in the biosphere; nor how many of them will find their way through various bio-uptake channels and become incorporated into living tissue where they will wreak havoc on nearby cells DNA (in fact even weak alpha emitters once incorporated into living tissue are potentially cancer causing, because of the very close proximity of the DNA). There is a gulf of difference between the low levels of radiation received -- on average -- from the highly diluted but very widely dispersed of nuclear pollutants that the Fukushima disaster has released -- AND continues to release AND still very much has the potential to release huge amounts -- and the continuous, localized irradiation that any living tissue that is near a microscopic spec, or even molecular scale clump of the nastier varietals. A slew of hot short to midterm half-life radionuclides including Cessium-137 (with a 30 year half-life), Strontium-90, Iodine-131 for example have been and continue to be released. U-235 is also showing up in samples. Exactly, and a lot of those radionuclides are released in coal mining and coal burning. Radon is the primary cause of lung cancer among non-smokers (est. 21,000 per year in the U.S.). Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
I try to stick to names that everyone recognises when I discuss debating tactics, and *ad hom* is the usual description for using insults rather than reasoned arguments (if you want to demonstrate my point further by calling me pompous, don't let me stop you). You can of course use *ad hominem* attacks against a group. There are presumably people who commission reports and people who make policy in the GGP, and from what you've said, you think they are basing their decisions on their desire for political power rather than their avowed interest in saving the environment. All I can say is perhaps you don't know many Green party politicians, because if they're anything like the ones I know in NZ they really *do* care about the environment, maybe too much rather than too little, since as a (cautious) advocate of nuclear power I often find they're blinded to my arguments by their ideology. As for the Russian study, of course it's still *ad hominem* if it attacks their motives rather than the science. That's what *ad hominem* means. However, as you say, it isn't *ad hom* if it can be shown to be true, *and*to have had a measurable influence on their reporting or decision making - i.e. if you can show that their bias has made them distort evidence, or do something that goes against their stated objectives. I await with interest your study on the intellectual abilities of Germans who have voted for the Green Party. On 22 November 2013 10:14, John Clark johnkcl...@gmail.com wrote: On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 3:27 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. This response is an unworthy* ad hominem* attack on the German Green Party, I didn't know you could ad hominem (God I hate that pompous phrase for name calling) a organization, I thought it only worked for people. Let me ask you this, if the study was conducted by a Russian electrical corporation that still operated nuclear power plants would you also say it was ad hominem if I didn't expect the report to be unbiased? I see no reason to believe the Green Party's report on the subject to be closer to the truth than the Russian utility. It's just a fact of life that it's in the interests of utility corporations to downplay the harm caused by nuclear accidents and in the interests of the Green Party and other environmental organizations to exaggerate them. and the German people who vote for them. People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 22 November 2013 07:54, John Clark johnkcl...@gmail.com wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: No you don’t know that at all. You don’t have some crystal ball and are just quoting from studies that have been criticized as very much low balling the ultimate number of cancer deaths attributable to Chernobyl. Other studies have come up with much higher numbers – ranging into the millions. For example the TORCH report commissioned by the German Green Party that included areas not covered by the WHO report The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. This response is an unworthy *ad hominem* attack on the German Green Party, and the German people who vote for them. You should be dealing in the facts of the matter, not saying in effect the Greens must be commissioning a report for political reasons (rather than their avowed care about the environment) and the people who vote for them are only doing so because they think there is a looming catastrophe (implication - otherwise they wouldn't give a fig about the environment). When you don't have a good argument, resort to questioning people's motives. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2013 1:15 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 3:27 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. This response is an unworthy ad hominem attack on the German Green Party, I didn't know you could ad hominem (God I hate that pompous phrase for name calling) a organization, I thought it only worked for people. Let me ask you this, if the study was conducted by a Russian electrical corporation that still operated nuclear power plants would you also say it was ad hominem if I didn't expect the report to be unbiased? I see no reason to believe the Green Party's report on the subject to be closer to the truth than the Russian utility. It's just a fact of life that it's in the interests of utility corporations to downplay the harm caused by nuclear accidents and in the interests of the Green Party and other environmental organizations to exaggerate them. and the German people who vote for them. People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. And people who term the Fukushima disaster as a run of the mill industrial accident - which you said - are so far out of touch with reality that nothing they say can be trusted. And it ain't ad hominem if its true. Chris John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
PS I do agree with you about nuclear power. That wasn't at issue (for me at least). But if you use unfair debating tactics like motive-questioning, you look like you don't have any real arguments. On 22 November 2013 09:27, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 22 November 2013 07:54, John Clark johnkcl...@gmail.com wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: No you don’t know that at all. You don’t have some crystal ball and are just quoting from studies that have been criticized as very much low balling the ultimate number of cancer deaths attributable to Chernobyl. Other studies have come up with much higher numbers – ranging into the millions. For example the TORCH report commissioned by the German Green Party that included areas not covered by the WHO report The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. This response is an unworthy *ad hominem* attack on the German Green Party, and the German people who vote for them. You should be dealing in the facts of the matter, not saying in effect the Greens must be commissioning a report for political reasons (rather than their avowed care about the environment) and the people who vote for them are only doing so because they think there is a looming catastrophe (implication - otherwise they wouldn't give a fig about the environment). When you don't have a good argument, resort to questioning people's motives. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: No you don’t know that at all. You don’t have some crystal ball and are just quoting from studies that have been criticized as very much low balling the ultimate number of cancer deaths attributable to Chernobyl. Other studies have come up with much higher numbers – ranging into the millions. For example the TORCH report commissioned by the German Green Party[...] Can you think of a reason the German Green Party that included areas not covered by the WHO report that produced the 4000 figure you quote. It concluded that the death toll from cancer is more likely to be around 30,000 to 60,000 extra incurred deaths. We could go on till the sun comes up – you present a study and I can present another study. It is hard to correlate cancer deaths that may happen decades even after the originating event with some event and the statistical methodologies used are all open to argument --- and the numbers can be moved about by changing boundary conditions etc. Besides the cancer deaths, what about the 2,600 kilometer square exclusion zone – that is a very big area. What is the dollar value on that? http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/05/world/europe/05iht-nuke.html?pagewanted=all_r=0 And however many cancers Fukushima turns out to have been made it is unlikely to be more than the cancers made by a average run of the mill coal power electric plant that never had a industrial accident. So say you. You speak of Fukushima as if it was an event that happened in the past – the disaster is still unfolding and Tepco cannot even say where the nuclear material in the cores of units #1, #2, and #3 is located. A run of the mill industrial accident does not produce an essentially permanent and very large exclusion zone – affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of uprooted atomic refugees -- as has Chernobyl and now once again Fukushima. The cost to sequester the Fukushima disaster will run into the many hundreds of billions of dollars – hardly a run of the mill price tag. There is nothing run of the mill about Fukushima – to suggest so is rather obscene. Chris John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2013 10:54 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: No you don't know that at all. You don't have some crystal ball and are just quoting from studies that have been criticized as very much low balling the ultimate number of cancer deaths attributable to Chernobyl. Other studies have come up with much higher numbers - ranging into the millions. For example the TORCH report commissioned by the German Green Party that included areas not covered by the WHO report The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. That is your opinion. I don't share it. You seem to be demonizing anyone who does not agree with your point of view, imputing unsavory motives of personal greed for political power as the prime (indeed the only) driver of what motivates environmentalists to become environmentalists. And, you know this, how? that produced the 4000 figure you quote. It concluded that the death toll from cancer is more likely to be around 30,000 to 60,000 extra incurred deaths. Even if that figure were true (and it is certainly exaggerated) it would be no reason to turn away from nuclear. No power source, or anything else for that matter, is 100% safe, but just in the USA alone coal power plants kill about 13,000 people EVERY YEAR. For every person killed by nuclear power 4000 are killed by coal. And that's not even taking into consideration the deaths caused by global warming, assuming that global warming is a bad thing (and it might not be). Nuclear power has zero effect on global warming. A power source that causes hundreds of thousands of atomic refugees every time a plant melts down and that destroys the ability to use huge swaths of land that will remain as nuclear contaminated no go zones for centuries - and quite possible millennia - until the levels of radionuclides in these areas decays, is not acceptable. The downside risk of nuclear power - as has been made clear by Chernobyl and now Fukushima - is far too high. Fukushima has created 160,000 atomic refugees in Japan; these people will never be able to return home - though the Japanese government still seems to think it can remediate the exclusion zone. The Chernobyl exclusion zone is 2,600 km^2 - that and has been lost to the people of the Ukraine since the time of the accident and will be lost to them for a very long time. I do agree that LFTR would potentially be a lot safer than the current nuclear power systems. Why defend this current type of PWRs, such as the flawed Mark II that failed in Fukushima? These giant white elephants would have never been built without massive subsidies and within a decade or two will start hitting global shortages of U-235. Any sustainable nuclear power system HAS to be a breeder type. Of all the breeder reactor designs LFTR seems to have the best safety resource profile. Unlike you, I don't believe there will be a need for it on a massive scale. By the soonest time commercial rated LFTR reactors can be ready the costs per watt and the scale of production for solar PV will have reached levels that would make it impossible to raise the amounts of capital required in order to build them. Solar PV is not going to suddenly stop getting cheaper, or scaling up in terms of how much new capacity it adds to the installed solar PV base each year. In the 20 to 30 years' time frame required in order to ramp up LFTR reactor technology to commercially rated systems, from the point that we are at today, solar PV will have become the electricity generation cost leader easily beating coal and anything else. I make this projection based on long established trend lines that have held for three decades. Chris http://www.the9billion.com/2011/03/24/death-rate-from-nuclear-power-vs-coal/ John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list
Re: Global warming silliness
On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 2:38 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: No you don’t know that at all. You don’t have some crystal ball and are just quoting from studies that have been criticized as very much low balling the ultimate number of cancer deaths attributable to Chernobyl. Other studies have come up with much higher numbers – ranging into the millions. For example the TORCH report commissioned by the German Green Party that included areas not covered by the WHO report The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. that produced the 4000 figure you quote. It concluded that the death toll from cancer is more likely to be around 30,000 to 60,000 extra incurred deaths. Even if that figure were true (and it is certainly exaggerated) it would be no reason to turn away from nuclear. No power source, or anything else for that matter, is 100% safe, but just in the USA alone coal power plants kill about 13,000 people EVERY YEAR. For every person killed by nuclear power 4000 are killed by coal. And that's not even taking into consideration the deaths caused by global warming, assuming that global warming is a bad thing (and it might not be). Nuclear power has zero effect on global warming. http://www.the9billion.com/2011/03/24/death-rate-from-nuclear-power-vs-coal/ John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/21/2013 6:21 PM, Chris de Morsella wrote: Unlike you, I don't believe there will be a need for it on a massive scale. By the soonest time commercial rated LFTR reactors can be ready the costs per watt and the scale of production for solar PV will have reached levels that would make it impossible to raise the amounts of capital required in order to build them. Solar PV is not going to suddenly stop getting cheaper, or scaling up in terms of how much new capacity it adds to the installed solar PV base each year. In the 20 to 30 years' time frame required in order to ramp up LFTR reactor technology to commercially rated systems, from the point that we are at today, solar PV will have become the electricity generation cost leader easily beating coal and anything else. I make this projection based on long established trend lines that have held for three decades. I don't see it as either-or. PV and wind are both intermittent and we're going to need either much better energy storage systems or backup from nuclear power plants. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Thu, Nov 21, 2013 at 3:27 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: The WHO is much more trustworthy than the German Green Party, the WHO has no ax to grind but if people don't think a environmental catastrophe is imminent nobody is going to vote for the German Green Party. This response is an unworthy* ad hominem* attack on the German Green Party, I didn't know you could ad hominem (God I hate that pompous phrase for name calling) a organization, I thought it only worked for people. Let me ask you this, if the study was conducted by a Russian electrical corporation that still operated nuclear power plants would you also say it was ad hominem if I didn't expect the report to be unbiased? I see no reason to believe the Green Party's report on the subject to be closer to the truth than the Russian utility. It's just a fact of life that it's in the interests of utility corporations to downplay the harm caused by nuclear accidents and in the interests of the Green Party and other environmental organizations to exaggerate them. and the German people who vote for them. People who vote for the German Green Party are dimwits, and it ain't ad hominem if it's true. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of meekerdb Sent: Thursday, November 21, 2013 6:55 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 11/21/2013 6:21 PM, Chris de Morsella wrote: Unlike you, I don't believe there will be a need for it on a massive scale. By the soonest time commercial rated LFTR reactors can be ready the costs per watt and the scale of production for solar PV will have reached levels that would make it impossible to raise the amounts of capital required in order to build them. Solar PV is not going to suddenly stop getting cheaper, or scaling up in terms of how much new capacity it adds to the installed solar PV base each year. In the 20 to 30 years' time frame required in order to ramp up LFTR reactor technology to commercially rated systems, from the point that we are at today, solar PV will have become the electricity generation cost leader easily beating coal and anything else. I make this projection based on long established trend lines that have held for three decades. I don't see it as either-or. PV and wind are both intermittent and we're going to need either much better energy storage systems or backup from nuclear power plants. The issue of intermittency is being overblown. It has been seized upon by opponents of renewable energy and presented to the world as if this was a fatal obstacle to developing and transitioning towards renewables. Major grid operators have published studies that show they can handle quite high degrees of wind/solar and maintain grid conditions; AND this is the situation as it is today. Things are developing quite rapidly on a lot of fronts that will together act to mitigate intermittency and manage it. Principally these consist of: Better storage. Utility scale batteries exist (such as sodium sulfer types); flow battery technology looks quite promising as well. Then there is compressed air (some propose using geologic formations that have cap rocks over them as reservoirs to store vast amounts of compressed air in - so potentially big storage potential in some places with the right geology beneath. Networked electric or plugin vehicles - if this segment takes off and becomes ubiquitous (as it is here in Seattle) the total potential capacity of all of the car batteries together represents a very significant capacity. If even a small part of this capacity could be available (by incentivizing electric car owners to arbitrage their power resources, charging up at night and selling excess during peak demand periods) this could add a lot of grid stability. But it is not just storage. There is also demand side management - a lot of power consumption can be worked around transient peaks and troughs, and done so in a manner that is almost seamless to the consumer (who ideally would experience minimal disruption to the expectation of on-demand electric power) Better micro-weather prediction - to be able to provide grid operators timely (real time and over various forecasting baselines) reports on actual or expected weather conditions at a precise and granular geographical scale. Better information will allow operators to manage variability with a lot less expense - for example being able to provision for power for a predicted period of deficit or conversely to try to line up consumption during periods of excess. For a long time there is going to be a large enough existing baseload capacity provided by the fossil (and II III generation obsolescent nuclear power plants). By the time this existing capacity starts to really drop off storage. In addition solar and wind tend to complement each other. When the wind is blowing hardest is often when the sun is NOT shining. The periods of time when there is both no sunlight and no wind - for extended periods - are in fact rather rare, especially during peak load time periods (afternoon-early evening) Furthermore some renewable energy systems can act as baseload suppliers. If they can ever get the earthquake problem solved hot dry rock geothermal is one such baseload source. Large scale CSPs that use molten salt and have the necessary efficiencies of scale can also be somewhat baseload like - being able to time shift their power generation to map onto peak load periods and deliver high quality power onto the grid (smooth). When people argue against renewables they sometimes make the mistake of assuming that there will be no progress - in the thirty years or so that it would take to even begin to develop a GenIV breeder reactor infrastructure and achieve the beginnings of mass penetration solar PV, wind, batteries, grid-intelligence, real-time (and across various future scales) electric power markets are all evolving. Concomitantly energy efficiency will continue to increase as supply chains, processes, transportation and built spaces all improve - as they are - driven by economic necessity. This is going
Re: Global warming silliness
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 7:13 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/19/2013 3:11 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 8:12 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't a question of not allowing the commons to be part of the market. YOU try convincing a private organisation to put lots of resources into fixing the commons. Try and persuade, say, Dell or Oracle or McDonalds that they should spend a substantial part of their revenue building motorways or fixing the climate, and see how far you get. There is a huge market for roads. Both McDonalds and Dell need them to distribute their stuff. Why would they not be built? Sounds like a great investment. Because it's hard to collect money just from users of your road. Have you never used a toll road? Yes, many times. And bridges too. They were all built with tax-payers money. You can also pay with RFID almost everywhere in Europe. You don't even have to stop. In my home country you don't even need that anymore, they just photograph your license plate and send you the bill. They did this so that they could quickly start applying tolls to regular roads. And if people don't go through the tolls enough times, they still receive a bill in the form of extra taxes. You act as though there is some government conspiracy preventing all these wonderful libertarian solutions. The use of the word conspiracy here seems like a rhetorical trick to make me sound like a lunatic. I guess it depends on what you mean by conspiracy. I'm suggesting that people abuse power and don't want to lose it. There's not. They have all existed at different times and places. There were toll roads. Private police forces. Private fire fighters. Private armies. There still are some places. But in general they didn't work as well as public ones. Feudal serfs might have argued that democracy has been tried before. I have no doubt that you have a scientific mind from reading many of your other posts, but here you are willing to take a bunch of anecdotes and decide that more sophisticated proposals just don't work. You also ignore the fact that a good part of the western world is already full of toll roads -- these will probably come to the USA eventually, as part of some set of austerity measures. The USA does indeed employ mercenaries, as is well known, and so do other western powers. The public police force is being heavily militarised and engaging in creating check points that, frankly, look like something from nazi Germany. Show me your documents. I understand the feeling that private police is creepy, but is this less creepy? https://www.google.com/search?safe=offhl=ensite=imghptbm=ischsource=hpbiw=1241bih=683q=police+militarizationoq=police+militarizationgs_l=img.3..0j0i5j0i24l3.1106.6200.0.6439.25.22.2.0.0.0.106.1366.21j1.22.00...1ac.1.31.img..3.22.1252.fC4GmX2-u_Y But there would be less roads, that's for sure. For example, my bankrupt home country probably wouldn't have two highways running 10 Km parallel to each other, like you can see here (A17 and A1): https://maps.google.com/?ll=39.880235,-8.539124spn=0.658647,1.18103t=mz=10 They both charge expensive tolls, by the way. A17 is always empty, but that's not a problem because the company that built it has a guaranteed minimum profits contract with the government that tax payers have to support. Reducing carbon emissions will not be a problem once the alternatives become efficient, But the efficiency depends on lots of externalities. When the fossil fuel industry was getting started the emission of CO2 (and other pollutants) wasn't recognized as an external cost. If is were, then fossil fuel might already be less efficient than nuclear and wind. Sure. And it's not just overall efficiency that counts, it's incremental efficiency. The market only considers the return on the increment of investment to be made. The infrastructure for distribution and use of fossil fuel is already in place, Yes, and it was bootstrapped by fossil fuel itself, when it was cheaper. so it's much easier to profit by supplying more gasoline to cars than supplying electrical power to cars. Even thought the latter is more energy efficient. In a free market there is no difference between profit and efficiency. Telmo. Brent and thus profitable. Unless, of course, the oil companies manage to lobby the government to prevent it. If we are facing an extinction level event where the only chance of survival is to
Re: Global warming silliness
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 6:37 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/19/2013 1:09 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 8:39 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/18/2013 9:44 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote: You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. So you think it's a bad idea for the government to require testing medications for safety. The problem is always the same, the government has no incentive to protect you, but a lot of incentive to protect lucrative businesses. You mean the giant Ritalin industry? Yes. I would say you think too much in terms of political categories. I'm not a big business apologist. I like honest businesses that provide value to society, independently of their size. I do not like businesses that use their money to distort the truth and buy political power. Crazy stuff is not only allowed but actually encouraged, like giving a powerful nervous system stimulant to kids whose brains are still developing, with little research on the long-term effects. My son was prescribed ritalin in high school and it helped him a lot. And his problem was not that he was bored. I don't know why you think there is little research on long-term effects? What's the research on the long term effects of HPV vaccines? Michelle Bachman thinks they cause mental retardation - based on one anecdote. I'm glad that it helped your son, and I'm being totally honest here. What I claim is that ritalin would easily be considered a hard drug if people were using it in a way that does not proved profits to some monopoly. These are the same guy who are lobbying against cannabis legalisation while developing THC based medication, this should tell you something. Also, there is now some evidence that Ketamine could be used to cure severe depression and that DMT could be used to cure addictions, but this research is not being allowed. But still concerning ritalin: don't you find it weird that it is unheard of in other developed countries? Some of these countries even have better education scores than the US. It feels a bit like soma: you prescribe it so that people can tolerate school and society, instead of trying to find out what's wrong with school and society. I don't claim that it can't be useful in some cases, and I believe you if you tell me that your son is one of them. This drug is prescribed, by the way, because kids are bored in school. What a shocker, must be a disease. Ritalin makes the kids more compliant and productive. A bit creepy if you think about it, no? Meanwhile paracetamol is mixed with other drugs like pain-killers and opiates, so that people that abuse them get sick in horrible ways. You liked the old patent medicine system better? You don't like the government requiring food labels with contents? How about airline safety requlations; why not just let the customers decide based on reputation (that's what libertarians want)? You talk as if there are only these two options. I also prefer to buy food that comes with a label of contents. Apparently, both you and me would prefer products with such labels. So there's a market for it, right? Then certification: private certification companies would have less incentives to lie, because once they are caught lying they lose our trust and consequently their business. And you think this company is going to do long-term research? How are they going to be caught lying based on statistics from 20yrs after the fact? What would they have said about alar on apples? In the current model, they are caught lying but nobody can show up and compete on better certification. Sure they can. There's nothing to stop you from starting a rating system for drugs and selling it to consumers and doctors. Nothing except you don't have the money or time to do the research and the only people who might fund it are the pharmaceutical companies. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to
Re: Global warming silliness
On 18 Nov 2013, at 20:39, meekerdb wrote: On 11/18/2013 9:44 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote: You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. So you think it's a bad idea for the government to require testing medications for safety. Not at all. I appreciate that idea. A government can test for medication, enforce the presence of warnings on secondary effects, traceability of the components, etc. It can even enforce age limits for some products. What I meant is that it is not the role of the governments to say *which* products among food and medication is allowed or not. Or which products I can grow in my home or garden. But it can enforce many modalities on their type of selling. Sorry for being unclear. You liked the old patent medicine system better? You don't like the government requiring food labels with contents? On the contrary. I am all for it. How about airline safety requlations; why not just let the customers decide based on reputation (that's what libertarians want)? I am not libertarian. At least not in the sense of the word in the US. I appreciate libertarians' opposition to big corporations, but that's all. Bruno http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/ -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 8:39 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/18/2013 9:44 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote: You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. So you think it's a bad idea for the government to require testing medications for safety. The problem is always the same, the government has no incentive to protect you, but a lot of incentive to protect lucrative businesses. Crazy stuff is not only allowed but actually encouraged, like giving a powerful nervous system stimulant to kids whose brains are still developing, with little research on the long-term effects. This drug is prescribed, by the way, because kids are bored in school. What a shocker, must be a disease. Ritalin makes the kids more compliant and productive. A bit creepy if you think about it, no? Meanwhile paracetamol is mixed with other drugs like pain-killers and opiates, so that people that abuse them get sick in horrible ways. You liked the old patent medicine system better? You don't like the government requiring food labels with contents? How about airline safety requlations; why not just let the customers decide based on reputation (that's what libertarians want)? You talk as if there are only these two options. I also prefer to buy food that comes with a label of contents. Apparently, both you and me would prefer products with such labels. So there's a market for it, right? Then certification: private certification companies would have less incentives to lie, because once they are caught lying they lose our trust and consequently their business. In the current model, they are caught lying but nobody can show up and compete on better certification. Telmo. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 6:44 PM, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 18 Nov 2013, at 18:13, meekerdb wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But how to create a system that prevents the bandits from getting there? But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. Bruno http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/ -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit
Re: Global warming silliness
On 19 Nov 2013, at 10:27, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 6:44 PM, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 18 Nov 2013, at 18:13, meekerdb wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But how to create a system that prevents the bandits from getting there? This is a bit like: how to create an organism immune against disease? There are no general rules. The US constitution was rather good, but has been violated repeatedly, perhaps since the assassination of Kennedy or after, or even before; it is complex. I do have ideas, including the vote on programs, replacing the vote on persons. Maybe we should throw out the politics as job. Politicians would be social workers, implementing only ideas which would have won the election. Everyone would have a task in the state, for a period of two years. It would be a social duty, with a reasonable
Re: Global warming silliness
On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 6:13 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men I see I walked into a trap. Look back in the archives. You mentioned your belief that people question global warming because they don't trust the government. I argued that it's not such a bad idea to distrust the government -- but never gave this as a reason to distrust scientific models. Where's the straw man? that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. No, without cooperation you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. The dogma you're proposing is that central government is the only way to promote cooperation. Many alternatives have been proposed, like private arbitration courts (this exists already, to a degree). If I enter a contract with you, we have to agree on some court to have authority over disputes. Of course, I'm free to ignore the decision of the court, but then will be less likely to have people agree to enter contracts with me. There are many others, you can google them. Or you can read this, for example: http://www.daviddfriedman.com/The_Machinery_of_Freedom_.pdf Could
Re: Global warming silliness
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 8:12 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't a question of not allowing the commons to be part of the market. YOU try convincing a private organisation to put lots of resources into fixing the commons. Try and persuade, say, Dell or Oracle or McDonalds that they should spend a substantial part of their revenue building motorways or fixing the climate, and see how far you get. There is a huge market for roads. Both McDonalds and Dell need them to distribute their stuff. Why would they not be built? Sounds like a great investment. But there would be less roads, that's for sure. For example, my bankrupt home country probably wouldn't have two highways running 10 Km parallel to each other, like you can see here (A17 and A1): https://maps.google.com/?ll=39.880235,-8.539124spn=0.658647,1.18103t=mz=10 They both charge expensive tolls, by the way. A17 is always empty, but that's not a problem because the company that built it has a guaranteed minimum profits contract with the government that tax payers have to support. Reducing carbon emissions will not be a problem once the alternatives become efficient, and thus profitable. Unless, of course, the oil companies manage to lobby the government to prevent it. If we are facing an extinction level event where the only chance of survival is to shut down civilisation for a while, then we are dead already. That is never going to happen, government or no government. Telmo. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/19/2013 1:09 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 8:39 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/18/2013 9:44 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote: You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. So you think it's a bad idea for the government to require testing medications for safety. The problem is always the same, the government has no incentive to protect you, but a lot of incentive to protect lucrative businesses. You mean the giant Ritalin industry? Crazy stuff is not only allowed but actually encouraged, like giving a powerful nervous system stimulant to kids whose brains are still developing, with little research on the long-term effects. My son was prescribed ritalin in high school and it helped him a lot. And his problem was not that he was bored. I don't know why you think there is little research on long-term effects? What's the research on the long term effects of HPV vaccines? Michelle Bachman thinks they cause mental retardation - based on one anecdote. This drug is prescribed, by the way, because kids are bored in school. What a shocker, must be a disease. Ritalin makes the kids more compliant and productive. A bit creepy if you think about it, no? Meanwhile paracetamol is mixed with other drugs like pain-killers and opiates, so that people that abuse them get sick in horrible ways. You liked the old patent medicine system better? You don't like the government requiring food labels with contents? How about airline safety requlations; why not just let the customers decide based on reputation (that's what libertarians want)? You talk as if there are only these two options. I also prefer to buy food that comes with a label of contents. Apparently, both you and me would prefer products with such labels. So there's a market for it, right? Then certification: private certification companies would have less incentives to lie, because once they are caught lying they lose our trust and consequently their business. And you think this company is going to do long-term research? How are they going to be caught lying based on statistics from 20yrs after the fact? What would they have said about alar on apples? In the current model, they are caught lying but nobody can show up and compete on better certification. Sure they can. There's nothing to stop you from starting a rating system for drugs and selling it to consumers and doctors. Nothing except you don't have the money or time to do the research and the only people who might fund it are the pharmaceutical companies. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/19/2013 1:27 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But how to create a system that prevents the bandits from getting there? Democracy permits you to vote them out. The difficulty is finding a good replacement to vote in. That requires activism and money - it can't be done by a system. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/19/2013 2:58 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 6:13 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men I see I walked into a trap. Look back in the archives. You mentioned your belief that people question global warming because they don't trust the government. I argued that it's not such a bad idea to distrust the government -- but never gave this as a reason to distrust scientific models. Where's the straw man? that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. No, without cooperation you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. The dogma you're proposing is that central government is the only way to promote cooperation. No, just the only way we know that works for nation sized groups. Many alternatives have been proposed, like private arbitration courts (this exists already, to a degree). If I enter a contract with you, we have to agree on some court to have authority over disputes. Of course, I'm free to ignore the decision of the court, but then will be less likely to have people agree to enter contracts with me. There are many others, you can google them. Or you can read this, for example:
Re: Global warming silliness
Reaganomics is hardly neo-liberalism On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 1:02 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/19/2013 2:58 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 6:13 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men I see I walked into a trap. Look back in the archives. You mentioned your belief that people question global warming because they don't trust the government. I argued that it's not such a bad idea to distrust the government -- but never gave this as a reason to distrust scientific models. Where's the straw man? that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. No, without cooperation you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. The dogma you're proposing is that central government is the only way to promote cooperation. No, just the only way we know that works for nation sized groups. Many alternatives have been proposed, like private arbitration courts (this exists already, to a degree). If I enter a contract with you, we have to agree on some court to have authority over disputes. Of course, I'm free to ignore the decision of
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/19/2013 3:11 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 8:12 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't a question of not allowing the commons to be part of the market. YOU try convincing a private organisation to put lots of resources into fixing the commons. Try and persuade, say, Dell or Oracle or McDonalds that they should spend a substantial part of their revenue building motorways or fixing the climate, and see how far you get. There is a huge market for roads. Both McDonalds and Dell need them to distribute their stuff. Why would they not be built? Sounds like a great investment. Because it's hard to collect money just from users of your road. Have you never used a toll road? You act as though there is some government conspiracy preventing all these wonderful libertarian solutions. There's not. They have all existed at different times and places. There were toll roads. Private police forces. Private fire fighters. Private armies. There still are some places. But in general they didn't work as well as public ones. But there would be less roads, that's for sure. For example, my bankrupt home country probably wouldn't have two highways running 10 Km parallel to each other, like you can see here (A17 and A1): https://maps.google.com/?ll=39.880235,-8.539124spn=0.658647,1.18103t=mz=10 They both charge expensive tolls, by the way. A17 is always empty, but that's not a problem because the company that built it has a guaranteed minimum profits contract with the government that tax payers have to support. Reducing carbon emissions will not be a problem once the alternatives become efficient, But the efficiency depends on lots of externalities. When the fossil fuel industry was getting started the emission of CO2 (and other pollutants) wasn't recognized as an external cost. If is were, then fossil fuel might already be less efficient than nuclear and wind. And it's not just overall efficiency that counts, it's incremental efficiency. The market only considers the return on the increment of investment to be made. The infrastructure for distribution and use of fossil fuel is already in place, so it's much easier to profit by supplying more gasoline to cars than supplying electrical power to cars. Even thought the latter is more energy efficient. Brent and thus profitable. Unless, of course, the oil companies manage to lobby the government to prevent it. If we are facing an extinction level event where the only chance of survival is to shut down civilisation for a while, then we are dead already. That is never going to happen, government or no government. Telmo. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 11:56 AM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/19 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 8:18 PM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/18 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/18/2013 4:43 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 11:23 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. This is too simplistic. Taxes have a long and complicated history, and several types of taxes that are accepted today were very controversial not so long ago. For example, the income tax in the US came into existence in 1913, with ratification of the 16th amendment. My father lived a good part of his life under the fascist regime in Portugal. We had a thriving match industry, so there was a tax on lighters. I have the license he had to carry in his pocket to use his lighter. This tax would now be illegal because of a UE treaty that forbids this type of protectionism. It was made redundant before that by the post-revolutionary nationalisation and consequent destruction of the match industry. Then, also in the UE, we saw the social security system turn into a tax: first, people were convinced that they should put some money aside and let the government take care of it, so that it is later able to provide you with a pension. Now that this system is collapsing, existing pensions are being cut, future pensions are uncertain and the age of retirement is rising. Yet, people don't pay less to social security. The pattern seems to always be the same: an initial reasonable plan, then a slow slide down a long sequence of small corrections and mistakes that eventually lead to pure obligation with nothing in return. Now, most UE citizens are resigned to the idea that they have to pay taxes to make up for past mistakes and expect nothing in return. This was attained by a process of slow cooking. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. I'll comment on two: the internet and railroads. The internet is the synergistic outcome of a number of technologies. I am fairly certain that no government desired the internet as it exists today. First, that's your supposition. If you named anything in the world as it exists today there would be some government, maybe even all people, who would want it to be
Re: Global warming silliness
2013/11/20 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 11:56 AM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/19 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 8:18 PM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/18 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/18/2013 4:43 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 11:23 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. This is too simplistic. Taxes have a long and complicated history, and several types of taxes that are accepted today were very controversial not so long ago. For example, the income tax in the US came into existence in 1913, with ratification of the 16th amendment. My father lived a good part of his life under the fascist regime in Portugal. We had a thriving match industry, so there was a tax on lighters. I have the license he had to carry in his pocket to use his lighter. This tax would now be illegal because of a UE treaty that forbids this type of protectionism. It was made redundant before that by the post-revolutionary nationalisation and consequent destruction of the match industry. Then, also in the UE, we saw the social security system turn into a tax: first, people were convinced that they should put some money aside and let the government take care of it, so that it is later able to provide you with a pension. Now that this system is collapsing, existing pensions are being cut, future pensions are uncertain and the age of retirement is rising. Yet, people don't pay less to social security. The pattern seems to always be the same: an initial reasonable plan, then a slow slide down a long sequence of small corrections and mistakes that eventually lead to pure obligation with nothing in return. Now, most UE citizens are resigned to the idea that they have to pay taxes to make up for past mistakes and expect nothing in return. This was attained by a process of slow cooking. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. I'll comment on two: the internet and railroads. The internet is the synergistic outcome of a number of technologies. I am fairly certain that no government desired the internet
Re: Global warming silliness
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 11:40 AM, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 19 Nov 2013, at 10:27, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 6:44 PM, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 18 Nov 2013, at 18:13, meekerdb wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But how to create a system that prevents the bandits from getting there? This is a bit like: how to create an organism immune against disease? I see it like this too, and I feel Nature is a good inspiration here. The immune system doesn't use centralised control either. There are no general rules. The US constitution was rather good, I admire the US constitution too. In fact, my political position is essentially to follow it (although I like to imagine possibilities for peaceful world with further increases in freedom). but has been violated repeatedly, perhaps since the assassination of
Re: Global warming silliness
On Wed, Nov 20, 2013 at 12:27 AM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/20 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 11:56 AM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/19 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 8:18 PM, Quentin Anciaux allco...@gmail.com wrote: 2013/11/18 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/18/2013 4:43 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 11:23 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. This is too simplistic. Taxes have a long and complicated history, and several types of taxes that are accepted today were very controversial not so long ago. For example, the income tax in the US came into existence in 1913, with ratification of the 16th amendment. My father lived a good part of his life under the fascist regime in Portugal. We had a thriving match industry, so there was a tax on lighters. I have the license he had to carry in his pocket to use his lighter. This tax would now be illegal because of a UE treaty that forbids this type of protectionism. It was made redundant before that by the post-revolutionary nationalisation and consequent destruction of the match industry. Then, also in the UE, we saw the social security system turn into a tax: first, people were convinced that they should put some money aside and let the government take care of it, so that it is later able to provide you with a pension. Now that this system is collapsing, existing pensions are being cut, future pensions are uncertain and the age of retirement is rising. Yet, people don't pay less to social security. The pattern seems to always be the same: an initial reasonable plan, then a slow slide down a long sequence of small corrections and mistakes that eventually lead to pure obligation with nothing in return. Now, most UE citizens are resigned to the idea that they have to pay taxes to make up for past mistakes and expect nothing in return. This was attained by a process of slow cooking. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. I'll comment on two: the internet and railroads.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. Telmo. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 10:46 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. Sure, and I don't blame people. We all spend about 12 years in the government's education system. The manufactured consent relies on several devices, namely political parties exploring human tribal tendencies. This is why you see people defending Obama while he does many things that they find repugnant. Another powerful weapon is fear. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. Well I tried to point out several examples on how it does. Trade reduces violence, for example. In a free market, reputation is very important. This is why careers can be destroyed in a free market, but this never seems to happen to people who control means of coercion. Reputation is a natural mechanism that our species evolved precisely to deal with tragedy of the commons like situations. With more freedom, people don't become suddenly irrational. Our civilisation improves because we know more and our analytical skills keep improving. Also because we taste better lives. I have a window that faces a private courtyard. If I started throwing my trash out of the window, my neighbours wouldn't be too happy about it. I wouldn't want to do it either, I like my surroundings to be clean. None of this would change with more freedom. Me and my neighbours have to cooperate to hire someone to clean the common areas. Agreeing to do my part is a contractual obligation for me to rent
Re: Global warming silliness
On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 11:23 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. This is too simplistic. Taxes have a long and complicated history, and several types of taxes that are accepted today were very controversial not so long ago. For example, the income tax in the US came into existence in 1913, with ratification of the 16th amendment. My father lived a good part of his life under the fascist regime in Portugal. We had a thriving match industry, so there was a tax on lighters. I have the license he had to carry in his pocket to use his lighter. This tax would now be illegal because of a UE treaty that forbids this type of protectionism. It was made redundant before that by the post-revolutionary nationalisation and consequent destruction of the match industry. Then, also in the UE, we saw the social security system turn into a tax: first, people were convinced that they should put some money aside and let the government take care of it, so that it is later able to provide you with a pension. Now that this system is collapsing, existing pensions are being cut, future pensions are uncertain and the age of retirement is rising. Yet, people don't pay less to social security. The pattern seems to always be the same: an initial reasonable plan, then a slow slide down a long sequence of small corrections and mistakes that eventually lead to pure obligation with nothing in return. Now, most UE citizens are resigned to the idea that they have to pay taxes to make up for past mistakes and expect nothing in return. This was attained by a process of slow cooking. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. I'll comment on two: the internet and railroads. The internet is the synergistic outcome of a number of technologies. I am fairly certain that no government desired the internet as it exists today. I can be fairly certain because they're using large chunks of our money to try to make it go away in its current format. Many different protocols were dreamt of. Creating a working internet protocol does not take a genius. It just so happened that TCP/IP gained popularity faster than other alternatives. A very great part of what makes the internet what it is today is open-source software. Sure, many companies and government organisations got in that action too for a number of reasons. But we saw an entire unix kernel being developed in front of our eyes by a Finnish kid and his followers. I remembered when this was laughed at, something that only a gigantic
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com mailto:te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com mailto:lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/18/2013 4:31 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: In fact, in the 90s Microsoft wasn't too happy with how the web was suddenly exploding and out of their control. Using their monopolistic position, they created a browser and gave it away for free, then stalled its development. This created a tragedy of the commons situation for the rest of us: we would all benefit from a better web but this was too costly of a problem for any of us to face individually, and there was quick profit to be made by just cooperating with the status quo. They also used their deep pockets to buy up small innovative companies that produced software that outcompeted parts of their office suite. If the owners didn't want to sell at MS's price, the MS would announce that the *next* release of Windoze was going to include whatever made the competing software better - for free. This of course would immediately kill the market for the competing software and the owners would be forced to sell. MS also used their position to get computer makers, like Dell, to deliver computers only with MS operating systems. But hey, it's just the free market. MS was prosecuted for restraint of trade and might even have been split into an OS company and an application company, except that the Bush administration came into office and essentially dropped the prosecution with a slap on the wrist. The prosecutions in Europe proceeded with a little more severe penalties. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 18 Nov 2013, at 18:13, meekerdb wrote: On 11/18/2013 1:46 AM, LizR wrote: On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't part of the market because no one wants it to be, not because no one allows it to be. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The medieval times were not exactly a period of free market, so this would be an example on how government can solve things... or not. In reality, many of the things we learned in high school about medieval times are myths or gross simplifications Not the tragedy of the commons, however. But even if it was the logic would hold. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. If they are prepared to chip in a donation there is no problem. If there is money to be made, the free market will be glad to oblige. You don't seem prepared to call things by its names: the idea of government is that, when people are not prepared to chip in, they are forced to do so, ultimately by violent means. The paradox here is that you are trusting a small group of people with this coercive power and then expecting this small group and power asymmetry to result in more altruism. Again, reality is complex. Current forms of democracy would not work if implemented in previous cultures, because people would not accept the social norms that come with them. You cannot police everything or even 1% of what's going on. Systems work because they become stable. This stability does not come from consent (I was born into this system and never consented to it, neither did you). It comes from the emergence of sets of incentives. I disagree with many laws that I'm not going to break because the personal cost to me would be too great. Suppose I decide I don't trust the government with my tax money, so I decide to take it instead and give it directly to organisations that I deem worthy: hospitals, schools, research centres and so on. I would end up in jail for chipping in. In fact government robs me of my freedom to chip in, because they take all of my chip in money and then some, and then give it to banks. Incentives also emerge from free markets, importantly the incentive to be nice to the people you trade with. Where there are more trade routes there are less wars. If you are polluting the air I breath you are being hostile towards me, and I am less likely to want to enter a transaction with you. But these delicate balances can't arise under coercion and market distortion. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. Prisoner dilemma scenarios don't magically disappear once you introduce coercion. In fact, I argue that they multiply. You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. Bruno http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/ -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/18/2013 4:31 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: If I tried to buy some land and start an independent city, stormtroopers would show up at some point. Even if I'm not harming anyone. Even if I'm totally self-reliant. Depends on what you mean by independent city. If you just mean a place with homes and businesses - no problem. But if you want to own a city with tax and police powers, then you need a charter from the state. This guarantees that you follow certain transparency, accounting, and democratic procedures in the governing of your city. And there are town (very small ones) that have been created in exactly that way. By using stormtroopers you imply that not being able to create a city with your own stormtroopers is unreasonable. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/18/2013 4:43 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 11:23 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. This is too simplistic. Taxes have a long and complicated history, and several types of taxes that are accepted today were very controversial not so long ago. For example, the income tax in the US came into existence in 1913, with ratification of the 16th amendment. My father lived a good part of his life under the fascist regime in Portugal. We had a thriving match industry, so there was a tax on lighters. I have the license he had to carry in his pocket to use his lighter. This tax would now be illegal because of a UE treaty that forbids this type of protectionism. It was made redundant before that by the post-revolutionary nationalisation and consequent destruction of the match industry. Then, also in the UE, we saw the social security system turn into a tax: first, people were convinced that they should put some money aside and let the government take care of it, so that it is later able to provide you with a pension. Now that this system is collapsing, existing pensions are being cut, future pensions are uncertain and the age of retirement is rising. Yet, people don't pay less to social security. The pattern seems to always be the same: an initial reasonable plan, then a slow slide down a long sequence of small corrections and mistakes that eventually lead to pure obligation with nothing in return. Now, most UE citizens are resigned to the idea that they have to pay taxes to make up for past mistakes and expect nothing in return. This was attained by a process of slow cooking. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. I'll comment on two: the internet and railroads. The internet is the synergistic outcome of a number of technologies. I am fairly certain that no government desired the internet as it exists today. First, that's your supposition. If you named anything in the world as it exists today there would be some government, maybe even all people, who would want it to be different, not as it exists today, in some respect. But it was created and developed by government funded organizations. By DARPA, by CERN. I can be fairly certain because they're using large chunks of our money to try to make it go away in its current format. Many different protocols were dreamt of. Creating a working internet protocol does not take a genius. It just so happened that TCP/IP gained popularity faster than other alternatives. A very great part of what makes the internet what
Re: Global warming silliness
2013/11/18 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/18/2013 4:43 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 11:23 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. This is too simplistic. Taxes have a long and complicated history, and several types of taxes that are accepted today were very controversial not so long ago. For example, the income tax in the US came into existence in 1913, with ratification of the 16th amendment. My father lived a good part of his life under the fascist regime in Portugal. We had a thriving match industry, so there was a tax on lighters. I have the license he had to carry in his pocket to use his lighter. This tax would now be illegal because of a UE treaty that forbids this type of protectionism. It was made redundant before that by the post-revolutionary nationalisation and consequent destruction of the match industry. Then, also in the UE, we saw the social security system turn into a tax: first, people were convinced that they should put some money aside and let the government take care of it, so that it is later able to provide you with a pension. Now that this system is collapsing, existing pensions are being cut, future pensions are uncertain and the age of retirement is rising. Yet, people don't pay less to social security. The pattern seems to always be the same: an initial reasonable plan, then a slow slide down a long sequence of small corrections and mistakes that eventually lead to pure obligation with nothing in return. Now, most UE citizens are resigned to the idea that they have to pay taxes to make up for past mistakes and expect nothing in return. This was attained by a process of slow cooking. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. I'll comment on two: the internet and railroads. The internet is the synergistic outcome of a number of technologies. I am fairly certain that no government desired the internet as it exists today. First, that's your supposition. If you named anything in the world as it exists today there would be some government, maybe even all people, who would want it to be different, not as it exists today, in some respect. But it was created and developed by government funded organizations. By DARPA, by CERN. I can be fairly certain because they're using large chunks of our money to try to make it go away in its current format. Many different protocols were dreamt of. Creating a working internet protocol does not take a genius.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/18/2013 9:44 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote: You seem to be arguing against a straw man here. I explained why the free market can't fix the tragedy of the commons. You haven't answered my point. And he's so concerned with anti-government straw men that he hasn't noticed that a market requires government (including coercion) to define ownership and punish fraud. Without government you couldn't own any more stuff than you could carry and defend by force of arms. I agree with Brent. Government can be the best thing a democracy can have, ... until bandits get power and perverts the elections and the state power separations (and get important control on the media, etc.). But we should make clear that a government has nothing to say about your food, medications, sports, religious or sexual practices, etc. As long as there are no well-motivated complains, the state can't intervene. So you think it's a bad idea for the government to require testing medications for safety. You liked the old patent medicine system better? You don't like the government requiring food labels with contents? How about airline safety requlations; why not just let the customers decide based on reputation (that's what libertarians want)? Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
Please look at this (and tweet / resend it if you agree). http://act.350.org/sign/haiyan Thanks! :) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 18 November 2013 22:41, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: On Mon, Nov 18, 2013 at 1:02 AM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. Yes, but this is circular. You're saying that the market cannot work for things that you do not allow to be part of the market. The government has to exist, otherwise how is the government to exist? It isn't a question of not allowing the commons to be part of the market. YOU try convincing a private organisation to put lots of resources into fixing the commons. Try and persuade, say, Dell or Oracle or McDonalds that they should spend a substantial part of their revenue building motorways or fixing the climate, and see how far you get. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Telmo. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 Richard Ruquist yann...@gmail.com wrote: Global temperatures fell from 1950 to 1980 while CO2 atm content was rising. Can you explain that? I can't explain that, nor do I understand why in the late Ordovician period 450 million years ago there was a huge 4400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere verses 380 today, and yet the world was in the grip of a very severe ice age. Apparently the climate dynamics of this planet is complicated and the link between global warming and CO2 is not as straightforward as some would have us believe. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 9:37 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: wait to see what happens to the cancer rates over the next fifty years. I don't now about Fukushima but I do know that the predictions of huge increases of cancer from Chernobyl have proved to be enormous exaggerations: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/05/world/europe/05iht-nuke.html?pagewanted=all_r=0 And however many cancers Fukushima turns out to have been made it is unlikely to be more than the cancers made by a average run of the mill coal power electric plant that never had a industrial accident. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Sunday, November 17, 2013 10:00 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 9:37 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: wait to see what happens to the cancer rates over the next fifty years. I don't now about Fukushima but I do know that the predictions of huge increases of cancer from Chernobyl have proved to be enormous exaggerations: No you don't know that at all. You don't have some crystal ball and are just quoting from studies that have been criticized as very much low balling the ultimate number of cancer deaths attributable to Chernobyl. Other studies have come up with much higher numbers - ranging into the millions. For example the TORCH report commissioned by the German Green Party that included areas not covered by the WHO report that produced the 4000 figure you quote. It concluded that the death toll from cancer is more likely to be around 30,000 to 60,000 extra incurred deaths. We could go on till the sun comes up - you present a study and I can present another study. It is hard to correlate cancer deaths that may happen decades even after the originating event with some event and the statistical methodologies used are all open to argument --- and the numbers can be moved about by changing boundary conditions etc. Besides the cancer deaths, what about the 2,600 kilometer square exclusion zone - that is a very big area. What is the dollar value on that? http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/05/world/europe/05iht-nuke.html?pagewanted=al l http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/05/world/europe/05iht-nuke.html?pagewanted=a ll_r=0 _r=0 And however many cancers Fukushima turns out to have been made it is unlikely to be more than the cancers made by a average run of the mill coal power electric plant that never had a industrial accident. So say you. You speak of Fukushima as if it was an event that happened in the past - the disaster is still unfolding and Tepco cannot even say where the nuclear material in the cores of units #1, #2, and #3 is located. A run of the mill industrial accident does not produce an essentially permanent and very large exclusion zone - affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of uprooted atomic refugees -- as has Chernobyl and now once again Fukushima. The cost to sequester the Fukushima disaster will run into the many hundreds of billions of dollars - hardly a run of the mill price tag. There is nothing run of the mill about Fukushima - to suggest so is rather obscene. Chris John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/16/2013 2:37 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: 2013/11/14 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com mailto:te...@telmomenezes.com Hi Alberto, On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 1:20 PM, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com mailto:agocor...@gmail.com wrote: Yes. I proposed myself not to argue against sectarian apocalypticists because that is a waste of time, Mentioning apocalyptic narratives is an important point. These are a fairly common social phenomena across History and they seem to be a coping mechanism of people who are unhappy with some status quo, and that also don't understand its complexities. The biblical apocalypse in the context of the Roman Empire is one example. Another one is the Illuminati conspiracy theories. They come from people who feel they got a bad deal from life and initiate this fantasy were the status quo is evil and it's going to get what's coming. That is exactly right. but it is necessary to distinguish between passive and active apocalipticism. The passives do not claim an special knowledge of nature. They believe in a supernatural phenomenon, and they rest waiting. The active ones believe in a natural apocalypse and claim an special knowledge of reality, so they reject any critics and are either open revolutionaries (like the marxists) or have a hidden agenda to subvert the social order. The core of their motivations are megalomania, pride and will of power. This is from Voegelin: The public interest has shifted from the nature of man to the nature of nature and to the prospects of domination its exploration opened; and the loss of interest even turned to hatred when the nature of man proved to be resistant to the changes dreamed up by intellectuals who want to add the lordship of society and history to the mastery of nature. Add? Despotic kings long preceded the Enlightenment and the idea of individual freedom. And this from Vaklav Klaus, formet Czech president, that know first hand the ideological predecessors of the eco-alarmists: A guy who was oppressed by the Communist Part and the Soviet Union two of the *most* un-environmentalist organizations *ever*, and he want's to blame it on eco-alarmist?? It is to laugh. The debate on global warming is not about temperatures and CO2 levels. It is an ideological war between those who want to change us (not the weather) and those who believe in freedom, markets, human ingenuity and technological progress. Advocates of climate alarmism ask an unprecedented expansion of government intervention in our lives. We are being forced to accept rules about how to live, what to do, how to behave, what to buy, what to eat, how to travel. Is unacceptable. But that's nonsense. Typical straw-man the environmentalist are out to get us. Let's see some actual quote of a respected environmentalist saying they believe in freedom, markets, human ingenuity and technological progress. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/17/2013 4:25 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Sun, Nov 17, 2013 at 8:41 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. Here with they I mean the people with the most political clout, access to the media an so on who campaign for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Their demand seems to be for the signing of a global treaty. This is a demand for empowering governments to further regulate economic activity, now at a global scale, and one of the main suggestions is some global tax based on carbon emissions. Is this not correct? That's the market based approach to reducing CO2 emissions by charging for the externalities. But there is no treaty even on the table to require any particular solution or even to enforce any degree of reduction. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. So even the proposals don't give any new power to governments - they always had the power to tax. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? More nuclear power and geo-engineering. Both these proposals exists and there is interest on the part of investors. They are always met with a lot of resistance from environmentalists. I'm not saying that all of this resistance is unjustified, caution is a good thing in these matters, but I definitely see a lot of resistance that comes from some moral framework that sees these ideas as fundamentally immoral, even more so if someone can profit from them. Sure, there's a lot of luddite resistance fed by scares like Fukushima. The important role I see for government is driving the RD to LFTRs. It's too big and too politically risky to expect private investment to take it on. It needs government funded and government protected development - just like the internet, spaceflight, uranium reactors, vaccination, intercontinental railroads, and just about any other really big technological development. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
This is quite simple. Markets ignore the commons, hence a free market solution can't - or is highly unlikely - to work. No one is going to clean up the commons, just as they didn't in medieval villages, because there is no incentive for an individual, or a specific group, to do so. The tragedy of the commons is one reason to have governments, because everyone wants something done that no one will do off their own bat - but they are prepared to chip in a donation towards the government doing it, or organising somone else to do it. And if no one does it, we all end up worse off (perhaps fatally so in this case). It ain't rocket science, although game theory has something to say about it. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
2013/11/14 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com Hi Alberto, On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 1:20 PM, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: Yes. I proposed myself not to argue against sectarian apocalypticists because that is a waste of time, Mentioning apocalyptic narratives is an important point. These are a fairly common social phenomena across History and they seem to be a coping mechanism of people who are unhappy with some status quo, and that also don't understand its complexities. The biblical apocalypse in the context of the Roman Empire is one example. Another one is the Illuminati conspiracy theories. They come from people who feel they got a bad deal from life and initiate this fantasy were the status quo is evil and it's going to get what's coming. That is exactly right. but it is necessary to distinguish between passive and active apocalipticism. The passives do not claim an special knowledge of nature. They believe in a supernatural phenomenon, and they rest waiting. The active ones believe in a natural apocalypse and claim an special knowledge of reality, so they reject any critics and are either open revolutionaries (like the marxists) or have a hidden agenda to subvert the social order. The core of their motivations are megalomania, pride and will of power. This is from Voegelin: The public interest has shifted from the nature of man to the nature of nature and to the prospects of domination its exploration opened; and the loss of interest even turned to hatred when the nature of man proved to be resistant to the changes dreamed up by intellectuals who want to add the lordship of society and history to the mastery of nature. And this from Vaklav Klaus, formet Czech president, that know first hand the ideological predecessors of the eco-alarmists: The debate on global warming is not about temperatures and CO2 levels. It is an ideological war between those who want to change us (not the weather) and those who believe in freedom, markets, human ingenuity and technological progress. Advocates of climate alarmism ask an unprecedented expansion of government intervention in our lives. We are being forced to accept rules about how to live, what to do, how to behave, what to buy, what to eat, how to travel. Is unacceptable. I sense this a lot in the global warming issue. It works well as an apocalyptic narrative for people who dislike capitalism. It's even associated with purification rituals and sin: vegetarianism vs. meat, low carbon-emission cars vs SUVs and so on. This doesn't mean it's incorrect, of course. Only failed predictions mean that. but honoring those of you that are not seduced by the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it movement, I will say something: Climatic models are bullshit. if you look at how they adjust parameters looking at the climategate mails you will have no doubt. Starting from that funny way for manufacturing models, it is no surprise that they predict nothing as Telmo said. I once heard some old professor give the following piece of wisdom: any sufficiently complicated model is doomed to succeed. I agree. The more parameters you have in a model, the less you can trust it. The more you teak them to correct for failed predictions, the more meaningless it gets. The more models you have for the same thing, the less significant the correct predictions of a given model are. This is just basic statistics. I notice that the skeptics tend to show the predictions of a large set of models, while the proponents of the theory show less of them. Then the skeptics are accused of cherry picking, and this raises my eyebrows... There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. What would be a good test of a climatic model?. We know that at the glacial eras started when North and South America united by the istmus of Panama closed the free water movement between the atlantic and pacific. That changed the global water flow regimes and resulted in the two polar ice caps. It is easy to configure the continents in the climate models and see what happens in each configuration of the american continents. Why they dont try it?. Because they know that their models are lacking decades of research to get accurate enough for the simplest long term prediction. 2013/11/13 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 7:49 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: Obviously there is more CO2 in the air than there has been for a very long time, and obviously the climate has changed somewhat in the last couple of decades (warmest on record, again and again). It's hard to prove the connection, of course, but the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. Of 13,950 peer-reviewed
Re: Global warming silliness
I am real ok, with this as well, I have read, in years past, the Amory Lovins, view on things. However behind all the savings, let us agree that due to Newtonian Laws, and Carnot Cycles, we cannot forever, postpone moving to a new energy regime. If you can do it with solar or antimatter, please do. No, I am not trying to be snarky about this, but we cannot move forward away from the dirty unless you can present the clean. I am ok with clean, as long as we really have it. -Original Message- From: Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com Sent: Fri, Nov 15, 2013 9:03 pm Subject: RE: Global warming silliness From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of spudboy...@aol.com Sent: Friday, November 15, 2013 5:14 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness To perform a fix on the climate, and I am giving the IPCC supporters the benefit of the doubt, we must have abundant clean sources at the ready. We need terawatts of clean, because gigawatts are insufficient. Some can be replaced by higher efficiency homes and devices, and cars-but this will only takes us so far. Think terawatts, not negawatts, and what tech we are going to use to replace the dirty? Faster please. You ignore the potential easily realizable savings that can be achieved by retro-fitting our existing buildings and homes. Thiis is truly the low hanging fruit and the scale of potential on-going energy savings is huge. For example Read report: http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/electricpowernaturalgas/US_energy_efficiency/ The global consulting firm estimates that $520 billion in investments would reduce U.S. non-transportation energy usage by 9.1 quadrillion BTUs by 2020 - roughly 23 percent of projected demand. As a result, the U.S. economy would save more than $1.2 trillion and avoid the release of some 1.1 gigatons of annual greenhouse gases, an amount equal to replacing 1,000 conventional 500-megawatt coal-fired power plants with renewable energy. Or the comparison given in the report “The reduction in energy use would also result in the abatement of 1.1 gigatons of greenhouse-gas emissions annually—the equivalent of taking the entire US fleet of passenger vehicles and light trucks off the roads.” Achieving this kind of reduction in producing carbon dioxide and in annual fossil energy consumption is not nibbling at the problem around the edges – this represents the single largest and most important immediate thing we can do to change the picture on the ground. And is something that will need to be done anyway. Doing this will increase the energy security (and military and economic security as well) of the US by making our country much leaner and able to prosper and live in comfort on far less energy – an carbon footprint impact the equivalent of removing the entire fleet of cars and light truck from the nation’s roads and highways. You cannot get more major impact than that. Chris -Original Message- From: meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com Sent: Thu, Nov 14, 2013 7:23 pm Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 11/14/2013 4:20 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: Yes. I proposed myself not to argue against sectarian apocalypticists because that is a waste of time, but honoring those of you that are not seduced by the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it movement, I will say something: Alas, some people just can't be relied on. Climatic models are bullshit. if you look at how they adjust parameters looking at the climategate mails you will have no doubt. Starting from that funny way for manufacturing models, it is no surprise that they predict nothing as Telmo said. First, the general circulation model developed at East Anglia is only one of a dozen or more and they all predict increasing temperature - including the pencil and paper calculation of Arhennius. In fact it's trivially easy to see that increased CO2 will raise the earth's temperature. CO2 absorbs light energy in infrared bands that are otherwise transparent. Without CO2 the planet would be too cold for human habitation (as already realized by Fourier). The difficulty in making accurate predictions of how much the CO2 we're adding will raise temperatures comes from accounting for the positive feedback effect of water vapor. Most models assume the world average relative humidity will stay the same. Some try to model ocean circulation from deep to shallow and assume water vapor pressure stays in equilibrium with the ocean surface. But these don't make any difference to the long term conclusion. There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get
Re: Global warming silliness
On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 6:46 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/14/2013 3:30 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 4:19 AM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: Good one, Chris. But you can tell from the posts here that what drives the Deniers is fear of government. In the U.S. since the Viet Nam war there has developed a widespread distrust of government as incompetent, corrupt, and oppressive. Well, it also doesn't help that almost everything that comes out of the government's mouth turns out to be a lie. They lied about WMDs in Iraq, they lied about closing down Guantanamo, they lied about repealing the patriot act (and in fact extended its scope through the NDAA), they lie about drugs, they lied about the scope of drone use, they lied about not spying on everybody and they lied about protecting whisteblowers. Just to name a few. These are all indisputable, direct lies about very serious matters. They are not indisputable. For example, Obama promised to close Guantanomo but he was blocked by Congress. Something was promised and then didn't happen. It doesn't really matter by which mechanism the system avoided doing what the people wanted it to do. Of course Obama's innocence here is very hard to buy. Surely he could prevent forced-feeding is he were such a champion of human rights. Given is many powers he could surely find some way around the House blocking certain routes. This never seems to be a problem when it comes to doing other things that go against the constitution, like surveilling people without a court order or killing citizens without a trial. One's failure after best effort, to do what is not possible is not exactly a lie. Still a lie. If I promise to do something that I'm not sure I will be able to do am I not lying? Also he promised not to use Justice Department resources to try to circumvent state laws and then he did. Many things said about recreational drugs, e.g. that heroin is addictive, are certainly true; Sure, and many others are lies. Big ones. The biggest being the claim that the war on drugs has a positive impact in society. and those were probably enough to convince the electorate that they should be banned. After all the nation even approved banning alcohol at one time - it's not just that people are misled about consequenses; the people like to impose their ideas of morality on others. It's one of the problems of democracy and the reason for having constitutional rights. It's an unsolved problem because the constitutional rights are then reinterpreted to allow the government to do whatever it wants anyway. I don't remember the government ever saying what the scope of drone use is. There are obvious tactical and diplomatic reasons for being vague about it. Obama promised to defend the constitution and then personally ordered drone strikes on american citizens without a trial. Also there's the crossing the rubicon moment of deploying military drones inside the US. Doesn't any of this worry you a little bit? But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. As for oppression we have the humiliation rituals enforced by the TSA, the militarisation of the police forces, the ongoing attempts at censoring the Internet, total surveillance, free-speech zones, the persecution of brilliant benevolent kids like Aaron Schwartz, who committed suicide because we was going to be thrown into jail for downloading scientific papers. I am very sad that he had to go through that, but also happy that the bandits couldn't get their hands on him. Probably you're going to reply with some apologies for your favourite team, and claim that it's the other team's fault. I don't care about any of that. I care about the end result: lies. The Democrats vs. Republicans reality show is a clever way to explore our tribal instincts. You illustrate my point again. You don't address the science behind global warming predictions or what to do about it. I'm commenting on why it's reasonable to not trust the government, a topic you introduced. We've discussed these other things already. Too many models, too many parameters. Medieval warming period. Incomplete knowledge about a complex system. The human cost of CO2 emission reduction. The current inefficiency of renewable sources. The environmentalists' opposition to nuclear power and geo-engineering. All of these previous points did not disappear just because I'm arguing that not
Re: Global warming silliness
On 17 November 2013 08:36, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: No, I am concerned that the global warming scare can be exploited to convince the people to relinquish more of its freedoms to the government. You mean the people still have some freedoms to relinquish? The government doesn't need global warming, they've done very nicely out of the war on terror. And what is this straw man about giving governments more power? They don't need more power, they need to divert some of the current massive subsidies away from the oil industry into renewables. Not rocket science. They need to stop being controlled by a certain sector of the economy. How does that give them more power over the average person than they have already acquired by (in the case of the USA) rewriting the constitution to disallow free speech, and to allow unlimited surveillance? -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Sat, Nov 16, 2013 at 9:12 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 17 November 2013 08:36, Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com wrote: No, I am concerned that the global warming scare can be exploited to convince the people to relinquish more of its freedoms to the government. You mean the people still have some freedoms to relinquish? Yes, most do. Some don't. Ask Nadia Tolokonnikova, who had the idea of confronting a total state: http://news.rapgenius.com/Nadia-tolokonnikova-open-letter-on-hunger-strike-lyrics The government doesn't need global warming, they've done very nicely out of the war on terror. Yes, you could have said the same before with the war on drugs. And what is this straw man about giving governments more power? They don't need more power, they need to divert some of the current massive subsidies away from the oil industry into renewables. I'm fine with this -- although I would prefer no subsidising at all, and letting real competition do its thing. But if they have to subsidise someone, the oil industry definitely doesn't need it. Not rocket science. They need to stop being controlled by a certain sector of the economy. I agree with the goal. I also believe that the only way to achieve this is to reduce the scope of the government, given that the government has abused and misused every single power that it has obtained so far. How does that give them more power over the average person than they have already acquired by (in the case of the USA) rewriting the constitution to disallow free speech, and to allow unlimited surveillance? We don't have a global tax system yet, for example. The advantage of my plan is that it also addresses these issues. Telmo. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/16/2013 11:36 AM, Telmo Menezes wrote: But I certainly take your point that there is a reason the government is not trusted. However, it is not the government that is warning us about global warming. It is in the scientific research literature. You didn't find lies about drones or drugs or the Patriout act in Physical Review or even in arXiv. No, but then they come up with this plan What plan? Where is it? As far as I know there is no plan whatsoever. that the way to solve the problem is to give more power to the above-mentioned government. You're protesting against a plan that you imagine. Any proposed solution that does not involve further government intrusion in our lives is rejected. What solution is that? Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 14 Nov 2013, at 18:48, meekerdb wrote: On 11/14/2013 3:34 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote: The use of science by government of science is of the type of pseudo-religion abuse. ?? Does not parse. Sorry. Read instead: The use of science by governments is of the type of pseudo-religion abuse. Bruno http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/ -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL. That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
So the measurements showing rising global temperatures and the noticeable effects this is having, and the measured rise in CO2 since the industrial revolution are irrelevant because the models aren't yet 100% accurate? So let's sit on our hands and do nothing, just in case we make a better world on the basis of false premises? Give me strength. On 15 November 2013 23:11, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL. That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
2013/11/15 LizR lizj...@gmail.com So the measurements showing rising global temperatures and the noticeable effects this is having, and the measured rise in CO2 since the industrial revolution are irrelevant because the models aren't yet 100% accurate? The models are 0% accurate. The other aspects that you mention are flawed as well. So let's sit on our hands and do nothing, just in case we make a better world on the basis of false premises? Not at all. As I said before, I have my own shit to attend. but I don't advocate to forbid you to do something for it. Feel free to do whatever you want. I encourage you to expend all your money in the save the world shit with mekerdb and other like you in brotherhood and harmony together. Might even contribute to the movement. I will buy your next Documentary from Al Gore et al. I definitively like scary movies. Give me strength. On 15 November 2013 23:11, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL. That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
Hi Russell, On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 12:58 AM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 12:09:18PM +0100, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: The good news is that the figures I've seen is that its not such a tremendous cost after all. I am very interested in this. Could you be more specific? How can this be? Was there some breakthrough in sustainable sources that increased their efficiency? The following is an article dealing with the economics in Australia of PV vs coal fired stations http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-now-cheaper-than-coal-and-gas-in-australia-62268 And here is one for wind power: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/rising-risk-prices-out-new-coalfired-plants-report-20130207-2e0s4.html These figure also do not include the existing carbon price of $20 per tonne. Existing fossil fuel generators will continue for a while, though, of course, particularly as renewables have not yet solved the baseload supply problem. Vanadium batteries may be good for that. Thanks for this. I hope it works. Reading the articles I have a feeling that this is more related to banks fearing investments in non-clean energy that could be subject to increasingly high taxes -- even though it appears that the Australian conservatives are not inclined to do that. I have no doubt that the technology is improving and I hope it does, but I would be more convinced if they addressed the hard numbers on the energy efficiency, sans current economical incentives, be they regulation or market conditions. Because I believe that those are the ones that will count in the long term. Part of the reason for my worry is that I saw heavy subsidising of wind farms destroy the industry in my home country (Portugal). The energy bill there is now about 60% taxes, to maintain the wind farms. Keeping your house warm in the winter is too expensive, even for the upper middle class. Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change we'd have to do something. Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one of the path leads to immense human suffering. The point is whether we do something, or do nothing, energy costs _will_ rise. Yes this _will_ lead to human suffering, either way. We can either choose to pay a bit more now, and have less costs later, or pay less now, and have steeper rises later. I agree that energy costs will rise and this is a very serious problem that we need to face. If you don't have to worry about CO2 so much, it's easier and less painful -- the more expensive fossil fuels become, the more economic incentive there will be for renewable sources. In this scenario we can retain economic freedom, which is highly correlated with prosperity. A 10 or 20% energy cost increase to hasten decarbonisation by a decade will save many billions of dollars of geo-engineering, or evironmental restoration down the track. Are you aware of geo-engineering proposals that would be very cheap? Nothing earth-scale will be cheap, or easy to understand all the consequences. Ultimately, it will need to come down to a cost-benefit analysis, factoring in the unknowns as some kind of risk factor. But if the technology break-throughs are real, we don't even have to worry all that much, maybe. There will be a lot of money to be made in moving to sustainable sources. Pushes for regulation make me suspect that the technology is not there yet. In which case I agree with you. Seems like quite an astute investment to me. Our current conservative government, alas, doesn't seem to think so. Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit of religious moralism. Telmo. They're not being ignored. But they do require a lot more small-scale research to understand their risk-benefit tradeoff. I never see this as part of the discussion. I'm very skeptical that this is being seriously pursued. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/15/pacific-iron-fertilisation-geoengineering amongst many other similar experiments. I can see why certain environmental movements have put geoengineering off the table for political reasons, but this doesn't mean it shouldn't be researched theoretically, and experimented practically on a small scale so that we better understand the costs, efficacy and risks if (or more likely when) it becomes a necessary part of the total solution. Ok, we agree. As for carbon pricing, which is the current hot topic in Australia. As a philosophical point, I am in favour of some sort of carbon pricing, but I'm not enough of an economist and energy technologist to know the ideal timing for its introduction, nor
Re: Global warming silliness
To perform a fix on the climate, and I am giving the IPCC supporters the benefit of the doubt, we must have abundant clean sources at the ready. We need terawatts of clean, because gigawatts are insufficient. Some can be replaced by higher efficiency homes and devices, and cars-but this will only takes us so far. Think terawatts, not negawatts, and what tech we are going to use to replace the dirty? Faster please. -Original Message- From: meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com Sent: Thu, Nov 14, 2013 7:23 pm Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 11/14/2013 4:20 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: Yes. I proposed myself not to argue against sectarian apocalypticists because that is a waste of time, but honoring those of you that are not seduced by the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it movement, I will say something: Alas, some people just can't be relied on. Climatic models are bullshit. if you look at how they adjust parameters looking at the climategate mails you will have no doubt. Starting from that funny way for manufacturing models, it is no surprise that they predict nothing as Telmo said. First, the general circulation model developed at East Anglia is only one of a dozen or more and they all predict increasing temperature - including the pencil and paper calculation of Arhennius. In fact it's trivially easy to see that increased CO2 will raise the earth's temperature. CO2 absorbs light energy in infrared bands that are otherwise transparent. Without CO2 the planet would be too cold for human habitation (as already realized by Fourier). The difficulty in making accurate predictions of how much the CO2 we're adding will raise temperatures comes from accounting for the positive feedback effect of water vapor. Most models assume the world average relative humidity will stay the same. Some try to model ocean circulation from deep to shallow and assume water vapor pressure stays in equilibrium with the ocean surface. But these don't make any difference to the long term conclusion. There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. What would be a good test of a climatic model?. We know that at the glacial eras started when North and South America united by the istmus of Panama closed the free water movement between the atlantic and pacific. That changed the global water flow regimes and resulted in the two polar ice caps. It is easy to configure the continents in the climate models and see what happens in each configuration of the american continents. Why they dont try it?. Because they know that their models are lacking decades of research to get accurate enough for the simplest long term prediction. More obfuscation. If more solar energy is retained by the atmosphere the planet will get hotter until it can radiate as much as received. Moving continents around can only affect the local distribution. This is the same tactic as Creationists who point to the clotting sequence or the flagellum and declare, Let's see evolution explain THAT. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
For CO2 remediation, Klaus Lachner has designed his artificial tree. Its a pollution exchanger, designed by Lachner at Columbia university NYC. Its supposed to be 100 times more efficient at removing atmospheric co2, then a normal, deciduous, tree. Cost? Who knows? -Original Message- From: Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com Sent: Thu, Nov 14, 2013 9:05 pm Subject: RE: Global warming silliness From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of LizR Sent: Thursday, November 14, 2013 12:26 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 14 November 2013 20:24, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of LizR Sent: Wednesday, November 13, 2013 7:29 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 14 November 2013 16:25, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: And to have the depth and breadth of understanding of the climatic systems both atmospheric and oceanic to be able to say with a high degree of certainty that there won't be unintended consequences that emerge out of the geo-engineering intervention (especially if it is difficult to reverse). I say this because as history shows we -- as a species (or culture perhaps) -- often fail to first understand before we act... there is quite a bit of precedent. Yes of course. It would be preferable to stabilise the climate in its current benign state, which has allowed us to develop agriculture and civilisation, by simply (!) removing CO2 from the air. That’s not removing it – it is recycling the energy carriers (the hydrogen and the carbon) into new hydrocarbons (requiring other systems and taking more by some factor energy to re-generate the hydrocarbon chains that are the liquid fuel. Certainly preferable to just burning more fossil carbon, but it is not removing carbon from the biosphere (it is returned as soon as the fuel is burnt). That's not removing it is a non sequiteur in answer to me saying we should remove it. I think we should, if possible, remove some of the CO2 from the atmosphere. Whether removing it is removing it I will leave it to others to judge. Were you perhaps responding to my next comment, which you've left buried down below for some reason? The one where I say we should remove CO2 from the air and combine it with water (and sunlight) to make petrol? That is what I was responding to Liz – synthesizing hydrocarbons in some chemical process from CO2 and water + copious amounts of needed energy in order to reduce both the CO2 and H2O – would return CO2 into the biosphere as soon as the fuel was burnt. It is rec-cycling carbon through the biosphere; not removing it. IMO – I am not certain that this is the best use of the energy inputs that would be required in order to synthesize the hydrocarbon from CO2 + H2O. Why not just use the energy directly. Remember no process is 100% efficient so more energy is going to go in to making the fuel by a substantial factor than will ever be extracted from that fuel by burning it – transforming it into heat and then finally useful work. An ICE engine – a very efficient one operates at around 20-25% efficiency – and that is a modern efficient ICE. Do the math. Lets say it takes 200% the energy in inputs to produce one energy unit of synthesized fuel – even if by burning it you could turn it into 100% work the efficiency would still be 50%. Now multiply the 50% by the efficiency of an ICE engine and you are getting in a good case about 10% maybe at the very best 15% of the energy you are putting into to this artificial hydrocarbon fuel system. Why not just use the energy directly? Sometimes there can be other factors that make it make sense to produce a liquid fuel even though it takes far more energy to produce it than can ever be extracted from it as useful work. For example, liquid fuels are essential for aviation for example – because of their power density; some energy is of low quality – for example wind energy (or nuclear or other big thermal electric power plant) that is being generated at 3:30 am. So there is an argument for doing so, but it is a for niche reasons. If so - yes, I realise that removing CO2 from the air and converting it to petrol is recycling it. Obviously. I'm not a complete idiot. The point is that doing that would be a short term solution that would make the economy more carbon neutral and wouldn't require creating huge amounts of new infrastructure. It isn't intended to be a universal panacea, merely a suggestion - a highly hypothetical one at this moment - for how we can use solar power to reduce the amount of stuff we're digging up and burning. It would require a whole new infrastructure – the infrastructure
Re: Global warming silliness
The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. They also *have stopped further solar cell research* in the countries where these subsidies have been granted. I leave as an exercise to figure out why that has happened. It is quite easy. But I guess that some people here well versed in QM and cosmology will be unable to figure it out. 2013/11/15 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com Hi Russell, On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 12:58 AM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 12:09:18PM +0100, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: The good news is that the figures I've seen is that its not such a tremendous cost after all. I am very interested in this. Could you be more specific? How can this be? Was there some breakthrough in sustainable sources that increased their efficiency? The following is an article dealing with the economics in Australia of PV vs coal fired stations http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-now-cheaper-than-coal-and-gas-in-australia-62268 And here is one for wind power: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/rising-risk-prices-out-new-coalfired-plants-report-20130207-2e0s4.html These figure also do not include the existing carbon price of $20 per tonne. Existing fossil fuel generators will continue for a while, though, of course, particularly as renewables have not yet solved the baseload supply problem. Vanadium batteries may be good for that. Thanks for this. I hope it works. Reading the articles I have a feeling that this is more related to banks fearing investments in non-clean energy that could be subject to increasingly high taxes -- even though it appears that the Australian conservatives are not inclined to do that. I have no doubt that the technology is improving and I hope it does, but I would be more convinced if they addressed the hard numbers on the energy efficiency, sans current economical incentives, be they regulation or market conditions. Because I believe that those are the ones that will count in the long term. Part of the reason for my worry is that I saw heavy subsidising of wind farms destroy the industry in my home country (Portugal). The energy bill there is now about 60% taxes, to maintain the wind farms. Keeping your house warm in the winter is too expensive, even for the upper middle class. Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change we'd have to do something. Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one of the path leads to immense human suffering. The point is whether we do something, or do nothing, energy costs _will_ rise. Yes this _will_ lead to human suffering, either way. We can either choose to pay a bit more now, and have less costs later, or pay less now, and have steeper rises later. I agree that energy costs will rise and this is a very serious problem that we need to face. If you don't have to worry about CO2 so much, it's easier and less painful -- the more expensive fossil fuels become, the more economic incentive there will be for renewable sources. In this scenario we can retain economic freedom, which is highly correlated with prosperity. A 10 or 20% energy cost increase to hasten decarbonisation by a decade will save many billions of dollars of geo-engineering, or evironmental restoration down the track. Are you aware of geo-engineering proposals that would be very cheap? Nothing earth-scale will be cheap, or easy to understand all the consequences. Ultimately, it will need to come down to a cost-benefit analysis, factoring in the unknowns as some kind of risk factor. But if the technology break-throughs are real, we don't even have to worry all that much, maybe. There will be a lot of money to be made in moving to sustainable sources. Pushes for regulation make me suspect that the technology is not there yet. In which case I agree with you. Seems like quite an astute investment to me. Our current conservative government, alas, doesn't seem to think so. Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit of religious moralism. Telmo. They're not being ignored. But they do require a lot more small-scale research to understand their risk-benefit tradeoff. I never see this as part of the discussion. I'm very skeptical that this is being seriously pursued. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/oct/15/pacific-iron-fertilisation-geoengineering amongst many
Re: Global warming silliness
I mean, the subsidies are for solar energy production. 2013/11/15 Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. They also *have stopped further solar cell research* in the countries where these subsidies have been granted. I leave as an exercise to figure out why that has happened. It is quite easy. But I guess that some people here well versed in QM and cosmology will be unable to figure it out. 2013/11/15 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com Hi Russell, On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 12:58 AM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 12:09:18PM +0100, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: The good news is that the figures I've seen is that its not such a tremendous cost after all. I am very interested in this. Could you be more specific? How can this be? Was there some breakthrough in sustainable sources that increased their efficiency? The following is an article dealing with the economics in Australia of PV vs coal fired stations http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-now-cheaper-than-coal-and-gas-in-australia-62268 And here is one for wind power: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/rising-risk-prices-out-new-coalfired-plants-report-20130207-2e0s4.html These figure also do not include the existing carbon price of $20 per tonne. Existing fossil fuel generators will continue for a while, though, of course, particularly as renewables have not yet solved the baseload supply problem. Vanadium batteries may be good for that. Thanks for this. I hope it works. Reading the articles I have a feeling that this is more related to banks fearing investments in non-clean energy that could be subject to increasingly high taxes -- even though it appears that the Australian conservatives are not inclined to do that. I have no doubt that the technology is improving and I hope it does, but I would be more convinced if they addressed the hard numbers on the energy efficiency, sans current economical incentives, be they regulation or market conditions. Because I believe that those are the ones that will count in the long term. Part of the reason for my worry is that I saw heavy subsidising of wind farms destroy the industry in my home country (Portugal). The energy bill there is now about 60% taxes, to maintain the wind farms. Keeping your house warm in the winter is too expensive, even for the upper middle class. Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change we'd have to do something. Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one of the path leads to immense human suffering. The point is whether we do something, or do nothing, energy costs _will_ rise. Yes this _will_ lead to human suffering, either way. We can either choose to pay a bit more now, and have less costs later, or pay less now, and have steeper rises later. I agree that energy costs will rise and this is a very serious problem that we need to face. If you don't have to worry about CO2 so much, it's easier and less painful -- the more expensive fossil fuels become, the more economic incentive there will be for renewable sources. In this scenario we can retain economic freedom, which is highly correlated with prosperity. A 10 or 20% energy cost increase to hasten decarbonisation by a decade will save many billions of dollars of geo-engineering, or evironmental restoration down the track. Are you aware of geo-engineering proposals that would be very cheap? Nothing earth-scale will be cheap, or easy to understand all the consequences. Ultimately, it will need to come down to a cost-benefit analysis, factoring in the unknowns as some kind of risk factor. But if the technology break-throughs are real, we don't even have to worry all that much, maybe. There will be a lot of money to be made in moving to sustainable sources. Pushes for regulation make me suspect that the technology is not there yet. In which case I agree with you. Seems like quite an astute investment to me. Our current conservative government, alas, doesn't seem to think so. Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit of religious moralism. Telmo. They're not being ignored. But they do require a lot more small-scale research to understand their risk-benefit tradeoff. I never see this as part of the discussion. I'm very skeptical that this is being seriously pursued.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/15/2013 2:11 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone Selected? I thought you wrote it. to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL. I understand that to predict something with a computer program you have to provide parameter values as well as dynamic equations. There is always uncertainty about the value of those parameters: heat transfer coefficients, albedo, enthalpy... So when I compare my model output to actual data (if there is any) I of course try adjusting some of the more uncertain parameters to improve the fit because that will improve the predictive accuracy of the model. I don't adjust them beyond the original uncertainty bounds, because then it's just curve fitting. Curve fitting can give good predictions too, but it doesn't given any insight into how the system works or what to modify to change it. I understand this because I do it for a living. So I'm afraid it is you who are the amateur here. That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists. There's nothing apocalyptic about global warming. Human will survive as a species. At least so long as it doesn't trigger a nuclear war. But there will be a lot death and suffering. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
I rephrase my affirmation as a question, so that even a kid can understand it: The models of the earth nucleus predict an inversion of polatity every 14000 years, just what happens in the real Eart nucleus. What fact of the earth climate the climate models are capable to predict? 2013/11/15 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/15/2013 2:11 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone Selected? I thought you wrote it. to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL. I understand that to predict something with a computer program you have to provide parameter values as well as dynamic equations. There is always uncertainty about the value of those parameters: heat transfer coefficients, albedo, enthalpy... So when I compare my model output to actual data (if there is any) I of course try adjusting some of the more uncertain parameters to improve the fit because that will improve the predictive accuracy of the model. I don't adjust them beyond the original uncertainty bounds, because then it's just curve fitting. Curve fitting can give good predictions too, but it doesn't given any insight into how the system works or what to modify to change it. I understand this because I do it for a living. So I'm afraid it is you who are the amateur here. That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists. There's nothing apocalyptic about global warming. Human will survive as a species. At least so long as it doesn't trigger a nuclear war. But there will be a lot death and suffering. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 4:19 PM, John Mikes jami...@gmail.com wrote: And for nukes? I would say: O N L Y fusion! The 'old fashion' fission nuke may be even more danerous than fossil pollution. Lets look at the disasters associated with various energy producing projects: In 1975 the Shimantan/Banqiao hydroelectric Dam in China failed and killed 171,000 people. In 1979 the Three Mile Island reactor melted down and killed nobody. In 1986 the Chernobyl nuclear plant melted down and killed 31 immediately and 4000 many decades later. In 1979 the Morvi hydroelectric Dam in India failed and killed 1500 people, In 1998 a oil pipeline in Nigeria exploded and killed 1078 people. In 1907 the Monongah Coal Mine in West Virginia exploded and killed well over 500 people. In 1944 a liquified natural gas factory exploded in Cleveland Ohio and killed 130 people. In 2011 the Fukushima nuclear power plant melted down and killed nobody. John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/15/2013 5:29 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. Germany's Industrial Economy Destroyed! Does Angela Merkel know about this? Does Alberto know about the fantastic amount of subsidy to the fossil fuel industry that is afforded to them by *not* charging them for the damage they do to the environment? Brent Bergeron's epitaph for the planet, I remember, which he said should be carved in big letters in a wall of the Grand Canyon for the flying-saucer people to find, was this: WE COULD HAVE SAVED IT BUT WE WERE TOO DOGGONE CHEAP Only he didn't say 'doggone.' --- Kurt Vonnegut Hocus Pocus -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
Germany was forced to reduce the subsidies retroactively, that means breaking the contracts with already installed power plants. Like spain and other countries. Even, so the taxes over electricity consumption would provoke a revolution in USA. 2013/11/15 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/15/2013 5:29 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. Germany's Industrial Economy Destroyed! Does Angela Merkel know about this? Does Alberto know about the fantastic amount of subsidy to the fossil fuel industry that is afforded to them by *not* charging them for the damage they do to the environment? Brent Bergeron's epitaph for the planet, I remember, which he said should be carved in big letters in a wall of the Grand Canyon for the flying-saucer people to find, was this: WE COULD HAVE SAVED IT BUT WE WERE TOO DOGGONE CHEAP Only he didn't say 'doggone.' --- Kurt Vonnegut Hocus Pocus -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
Solar irradiance on the Earth is approximately 1.74×1017 Watts. On 16 November 2013 02:13, spudboy...@aol.com wrote: To perform a fix on the climate, and I am giving the IPCC supporters the benefit of the doubt, we must have abundant clean sources at the ready. We need terawatts of clean, because gigawatts are insufficient. Some can be replaced by higher efficiency homes and devices, and cars-but this will only takes us so far. Think terawatts, not negawatts, and what tech we are going to use to replace the dirty? Faster please. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 07:18, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: There's nothing apocalyptic about global warming. Human will survive as a species. At least so long as it doesn't trigger a nuclear war. But there will be a lot death and suffering. I agree. The question is whether our civilisation will survive. Without it we may well be doomed to remain on Earth, and eventually get flattened by the next passing asteroid, after a period of living in Medieval squalor. I want something better for my descendants than that. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 07:34, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: I rephrase my affirmation as a question, so that even a kid can understand it: The models of the earth nucleus predict an inversion of polatity every 14000 years, just what happens in the real Eart nucleus. What fact of the earth climate the climate models are capable to predict? Rising temperatures. Fourier could have told you that in the 19th century. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 08:20, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/15/2013 5:29 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. Germany's Industrial Economy Destroyed! Does Angela Merkel know about this? Does Alberto know about the fantastic amount of subsidy to the fossil fuel industry that is afforded to them by *not* charging them for the damage they do to the environment? Indeed. Never mind the huge subsidied they get on top of that. They pay a few million dollars to political parties and get an astronomical return. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
LizR 3:23 PM (29 minutes ago) to everything-list On 16 November 2013 07:34, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: I rephrase my affirmation as a question, so that even a kid can understand it: The models of the earth nucleus predict an inversion of polatity every 14000 years, just what happens in the real Eart nucleus. What fact of the earth climate the climate models are capable to predict? Rising temperatures. Fourier could have told you that in the 19th century. Liz, Global temperatures fell from 1950 to 1980 while CO2 atm content was rising. Can you explain that? Richard On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 3:23 PM, LizR lizj...@gmail.com wrote: On 16 November 2013 07:34, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: I rephrase my affirmation as a question, so that even a kid can understand it: The models of the earth nucleus predict an inversion of polatity every 14000 years, just what happens in the real Eart nucleus. What fact of the earth climate the climate models are capable to predict? Rising temperatures. Fourier could have told you that in the 19th century. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/15/2013 11:06 AM, John Clark wrote: On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 4:19 PM, John Mikes jami...@gmail.com mailto:jami...@gmail.com wrote: And for nukes? I would say: O N L Y fusion! The 'old fashion' fission nuke may be even more danerous than fossil pollution. Lets look at the disasters associated with various energy producing projects: In 1975 the Shimantan/Banqiao hydroelectric Dam in China failed and killed 171,000 people. In 1979 the Three Mile Island reactor melted down and killed nobody. In 1986 the Chernobyl nuclear plant melted down and killed 31 immediately and 4000 many decades later. In 1979 the Morvi hydroelectric Dam in India failed and killed 1500 people, In 1998 a oil pipeline in Nigeria exploded and killed 1078 people. In 1907 the Monongah Coal Mine in West Virginia exploded and killed well over 500 people. In 1944 a liquified natural gas factory exploded in Cleveland Ohio and killed 130 people. In 2011 the Fukushima nuclear power plant melted down and killed nobody. Not only that, coal mining releases a lot more radioctivity into the atmosphere than nuclear plants ever have. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 4:09 PM, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: in the past, when the earth was much warmer, sea level was several meters higher. The sea was hundreds of meters higher in the past and will be so again someday, but at a rate of one inch a decade we'll have plenty of time to adapt. As you must know, melting ice Which occurs at 32 degrees Fahrenheit. is a first-order phase transition. Heat is absorbed the phase change with no increase in temperature. Yes, and that means more energy would be required to melt all that ice than would otherwise be the case. Myrhvold himself says it will be a serious problem within 40yrs even if we cut CO2 emissions by 6% a year - and there's no reason to suppose we will cut them at all. He considers the problem a serious pickle, which is why he proposes injecting particles into the stratosphere, like an artificial volcano, as a transitional remedy. No doubt some environmentalist have criticized this as a risky geoengineering solution with hard to forsee side effects. And no doubt you are correct, environmentalist claim we face a existential threat from global warming, but whenever anybody proposes a solution their response is always exactly the same, no no no. Environmentalists claim to occupy the moral high ground but because of a superstitious fear of all genetic engineering they oppose Golden Rice even to the point of criminal sabotage which could prevent 670,000 children a year from dying of vitamin A deficiency and 350,000 go permanently blind. Environmentalists blab on and on about the evils of chemical pesticides but when science develops plants that need much less of them they do everything they can to stop it. Instead environmentalists insist that 7 billion people can be kept alive and in comfort with moonbeams and hummingbirds and windmills powering blast furnaces. A straw man mockery of environmentalists. Straw man my ass, environmentalists never met a energy source they didn't hate. Wind farms are ugly, disrupt wind patterns are noisy and kill birdies. Geothermal smells bad and causes earthquakes. Hydroelectric floods the land and new dams may also cause earthquakes. Bio-fuel diverts needed food production to fuel. Solar energy is so dilute that vast tracks of land are needed and that will endanger a desert lizard you never heard of. And of course there is the N word, the energy source so hated that tree huggers dare not speak its name. I however sometimes take the heretical view that the environmentalist's preferred solution to this problem, freezing to death in the dark, may not be ideal. I have a friend who has been president of the local Sierra Club for many years and he's all for nuclear power plants, From the Sierra Club official website: The Sierra Club remains unequivocally opposed to nuclear energy. For more crap see: http://www.sierraclub.org/nuclear/ especially LFTRs, to replace fossil fuel. Good, I'm a big fan of LFTRs, too bad all members of the Sierra Club aren't as enlightened. He has no problem with genetic engineering From the Sierra Club official website: Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) or genetically engineered (GE) foods have the potential to cause a variety of health problems. For more crap see: http://www.sierraclub.org/biotech/ John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
[image: Inline images 1] On 16 November 2013 09:54, Richard Ruquist yann...@gmail.com wrote: Liz, Global temperatures fell from 1950 to 1980 while CO2 atm content was rising. Can you explain that? Richard Why should I? This is a complex system with an uncontrolled experiment running in it. Since I was born the CO2 has gone up 25%, that is a major piece of unintended planetary engineering, the effects of CO2 on solar irradiance are well understood, and on average the global temperature is going up just as predicted. There is a real, measurable effect, as the firefighters of Australia and the entire population of the Phillippines (amongst many, many others already affected by it) can tell you. Denying its existence means being blind to the data - the (hehe) cold, hard facts. Questioning the *reason *for it is at least somewhat sensible, though becoming less so as emissions increase more rapidly and temperatures do likewise, by what must seem to some people like, wow, what an amazing coincidence. The main question is, what (if anything) can we do about it, preferably before the oceans above the thermocline warm the 2 degrees required to bring gigatonnes of methane out of suspension? PS on the subject of the plateau shown above - maybe those other factors deniers are always going on about were involved? Pollution increasing the Earth's albedo, solar cycles, something to do with the second world war or nuclear testing, whatever? Show me a graph measured by NASA or the Arctic Institute where the temperature (and preferably the CO2) go back to their 1900 level and you'll have something worth discussing. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 10:07, John Clark johnkcl...@gmail.com wrote: Straw man my ass, environmentalists never met a energy source they didn't hate. Wind farms are ugly, disrupt wind patterns are noisy and kill birdies. Geothermal smells bad and causes earthquakes. Hydroelectric floods the land and new dams may also cause earthquakes. Bio-fuel diverts needed food production to fuel. Solar energy is so dilute that vast tracks of land are needed and that will endanger a desert lizard you never heard of. And of course there is the N word, the energy source so hated that tree huggers dare not speak its name. I however sometimes take the heretical view that the environmentalist's preferred solution to this problem, freezing to death in the dark, may not be ideal. So what do you call me, someone who is worried about the environment but mainly because of the effects destroying it will have on humanity, who is prepared to embrace all forms of alternative power including nuclear if that will save us, and who thinks the best solution for the human race is to improve our technolgy asap, and to whom the idea of returning to the golden age of no dentistry and droit de signeur is an abiding dread? A person hugger ? -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On Sat, Nov 16, 2013 at 10:18:17AM +1300, LizR wrote: [image: Inline images 1] On 16 November 2013 09:54, Richard Ruquist yann...@gmail.com wrote: Liz, Global temperatures fell from 1950 to 1980 while CO2 atm content was rising. Can you explain that? Richard PS on the subject of the plateau shown above - maybe those other factors deniers are always going on about were involved? Pollution increasing the Earth's albedo, solar cycles, something to do with the second world war or nuclear testing, whatever? Show me a graph measured by NASA or the Arctic Institute where the temperature (and preferably the CO2) go back to their 1900 level and you'll have something worth discussing. This is due to the presence of aerosols. Ironically, cleaning up our pollution has caused the planet to warm faster. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century.htm -- Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders Visiting Professor of Mathematics hpco...@hpcoders.com.au University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 10:48, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: This is due to the presence of aerosols. Ironically, cleaning up our pollution has caused the planet to warm faster. Yes I thought it would be something like that. I recently heard there had been a (slight) drop in global temperatures caused by increased pollution (possibly over China?) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 10:44, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: That is not a predicion that test the validity of a model. I can do the same with a program with then lines by adjusting three parameters. A real model would reproduce the evolution of ancient climates transitions, for example the initiation and evolution of the glacial era from well know paleoclimatic parameters, circulation of the oceans and shape of the continents, the solar cycles and the orbit of the earth the . Nut I'm not talking about the prediction of the global parameters, (that ad hoc adjustment I can do it) . It must reproduce the changes in the ocean flows, the variations in extension of the polar ice caps, not the mean temperature of the planet. The models are decades at least from reproducing that. Probably this may never will be possible. drop me a message back when this has been achieved. Would you like that before or after the oceans swamp most of our farmland? (PS I see you live nice and high above sea level. Talking the talk, eh? :) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
My own models and the one of star trekkers, Star warriors and in general Sci-Fi aficionados indicates that the most probable catastrophe is an alien invasion in the next 100 years. We have only one planet to live. So I will consider you a bunch of retarded deniers and brainless morons if you do not contribute compulsorily to the creation of a Rebel Alliance X-Wing Squadronhttp://www.kickstarter.com/projects/simonkwan/crowdfunding-rebel-alliance-x-wing-squadron http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/simonkwan/crowdfunding-rebel-alliance-x-wing-squadron The consensus is there. You are warned. 2013/11/15 LizR lizj...@gmail.com On 16 November 2013 10:44, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: That is not a predicion that test the validity of a model. I can do the same with a program with then lines by adjusting three parameters. A real model would reproduce the evolution of ancient climates transitions, for example the initiation and evolution of the glacial era from well know paleoclimatic parameters, circulation of the oceans and shape of the continents, the solar cycles and the orbit of the earth the . Nut I'm not talking about the prediction of the global parameters, (that ad hoc adjustment I can do it) . It must reproduce the changes in the ocean flows, the variations in extension of the polar ice caps, not the mean temperature of the planet. The models are decades at least from reproducing that. Probably this may never will be possible. drop me a message back when this has been achieved. Would you like that before or after the oceans swamp most of our farmland? (PS I see you live nice and high above sea level. Talking the talk, eh? :) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 11:13, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: My own models and the one of star trekkers, Star warriors and in general Sci-Fi aficionados indicates that the most probable catastrophe is an alien invasion in the next 100 years. We have only one planet to live. So I will consider you a bunch of retarded deniers and brainless morons if you do not contribute compulsorily to the creation of a Rebel Alliance X-Wing Squadronhttp://www.kickstarter.com/projects/simonkwan/crowdfunding-rebel-alliance-x-wing-squadron http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/simonkwan/crowdfunding-rebel-alliance-x-wing-squadron The consensus is there. You are warned. Well my models are spot on. I have modelled quite a number of climate change denier responses, and I generally find that when sarcasm, straw men and blind insistence fail them, they fall back on ridicule. So far you have hit every point on my graph. Yet oddly enough all your comments *still* haven't stopped sea level rise or melting glaciers or rising temperatures. Strange that. Maybe if you keep them up long enough NASA will start recording a lower global temperature and Mauna Kea will record less atmospheric CO2. PS Have you considered changing your name to Alberto G. Canute? -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
As i said before, it si worthless to talk with sectarian apocalipticists. Your ideological ancestors were the worst people of the modern times. It is no surprise that you lack the tiniest sense of humor. You are a true danger. 2013/11/15 LizR lizj...@gmail.com On 16 November 2013 11:13, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: My own models and the one of star trekkers, Star warriors and in general Sci-Fi aficionados indicates that the most probable catastrophe is an alien invasion in the next 100 years. We have only one planet to live. So I will consider you a bunch of retarded deniers and brainless morons if you do not contribute compulsorily to the creation of a Rebel Alliance X-Wing Squadronhttp://www.kickstarter.com/projects/simonkwan/crowdfunding-rebel-alliance-x-wing-squadron http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/simonkwan/crowdfunding-rebel-alliance-x-wing-squadron The consensus is there. You are warned. Well my models are spot on. I have modelled quite a number of climate change denier responses, and I generally find that when sarcasm, straw men and blind insistence fail them, they fall back on ridicule. So far you have hit every point on my graph. Yet oddly enough all your comments *still* haven't stopped sea level rise or melting glaciers or rising temperatures. Strange that. Maybe if you keep them up long enough NASA will start recording a lower global temperature and Mauna Kea will record less atmospheric CO2. PS Have you considered changing your name to Alberto G. Canute? -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/15/2013 2:38 PM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: As i said before, it si worthless to talk with sectarian apocalipticists. Your ideological ancestors were the worst people of the modern times. It is no surprise that you lack the tiniest sense of humor. You are a true danger. Alberto is just feeling peeved because his co-religionists can't burn scientists at the stake anymore. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
You have shown what you are and what you represent. I have nothing more to say. You are your worst enemy. I suspect that we have touched not only the beliefs, but the business of some people here that live from big gobernment politics and ecoalarmist demagogy. 2013/11/15 meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net On 11/15/2013 2:38 PM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: As i said before, it si worthless to talk with sectarian apocalipticists. Your ideological ancestors were the worst people of the modern times. It is no surprise that you lack the tiniest sense of humor. You are a true danger. Alberto is just feeling peeved because his co-religionists can't burn scientists at the stake anymore. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 11:38, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: As i said before, it si worthless to talk with sectarian apocalipticists. Your ideological ancestors were the worst people of the modern times. It is no surprise that you lack the tiniest sense of humor. You are a true danger. I responded to your humour with more humour, which you seem to have missed - so who is missing a sense of humour, again? -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 11:57, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: You have shown what you are and what you represent. I have nothing more to say. You are your worst enemy. I suspect that we have touched not only the beliefs, but the business of some people here that live from big gobernment politics and ecoalarmist demagogy. If you can't win with facts, misrepresentation or sarcasm, out come the insults. So far, my climate denier models are spot on. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 11/15/2013 3:16 PM, LizR wrote: On 16 November 2013 11:57, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com mailto:agocor...@gmail.com wrote: You have shown what you are and what you represent. I have nothing more to say. You are your worst enemy. I suspect that we have touched not only the beliefs, but the business of some people here that live from big gobernment politics and ecoalarmist demagogy. If you can't win with facts, misrepresentation or sarcasm, out come the insults. So far, my climate denier models are spot on. How many times does you model predict Alberto will post that he's not going to say anymore? Just curious. Brent -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 16 November 2013 12:35, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/15/2013 3:16 PM, LizR wrote: So far, my climate denier models are spot on. How many times does you model predict Alberto will post that he's not going to say anymore? Just curious. :-) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
Show me these models that are 0% accurate – that is very hard to achieve, except in the land of polemics, which is where I suspect you reside. From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona Sent: Friday, November 15, 2013 2:45 AM To: everything-list Subject: Re: Global warming silliness 2013/11/15 LizR lizj...@gmail.com So the measurements showing rising global temperatures and the noticeable effects this is having, and the measured rise in CO2 since the industrial revolution are irrelevant because the models aren't yet 100% accurate? The models are 0% accurate. The other aspects that you mention are flawed as well. So let's sit on our hands and do nothing, just in case we make a better world on the basis of false premises? Not at all. As I said before, I have my own shit to attend. but I don't advocate to forbid you to do something for it. Feel free to do whatever you want. I encourage you to expend all your money in the save the world shit with mekerdb and other like you in brotherhood and harmony together. Might even contribute to the movement. I will buy your next Documentary from Al Gore et al. I definitively like scary movies. Give me strength. On 15 November 2013 23:11, Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com wrote: There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. I selected this paragraph alone to show that you, in your obfuscation, don´t understand the difference between predicion (or retrodiction) and tweking for predicting (or retrodict) nothing AT ALL. That is why I said that it is a waste of time to discuss the apocalypse with the apocalipticists. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com mailto:everything-list%2bunsubscr...@googlegroups.com . To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of spudboy...@aol.com Sent: Friday, November 15, 2013 5:14 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness To perform a fix on the climate, and I am giving the IPCC supporters the benefit of the doubt, we must have abundant clean sources at the ready. We need terawatts of clean, because gigawatts are insufficient. Some can be replaced by higher efficiency homes and devices, and cars-but this will only takes us so far. Think terawatts, not negawatts, and what tech we are going to use to replace the dirty? Faster please. You ignore the potential easily realizable savings that can be achieved by retro-fitting our existing buildings and homes. Thiis is truly the low hanging fruit and the scale of potential on-going energy savings is huge. For example Read report: http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/electricpowernaturalgas/US_energy_effi ciency/ The global consulting firm estimates that $520 billion in investments would reduce U.S. non-transportation energy usage by 9.1 quadrillion BTUs by 2020 - roughly 23 percent of projected demand. As a result, the U.S. economy would save more than $1.2 trillion and avoid the release of some 1.1 gigatons of annual greenhouse gases, an amount equal to replacing 1,000 conventional 500-megawatt coal-fired power plants with renewable energy. Or the comparison given in the report The reduction in energy use would also result in the abatement of 1.1 gigatons of greenhouse-gas emissions annually-the equivalent of taking the entire US fleet of passenger vehicles and light trucks off the roads. Achieving this kind of reduction in producing carbon dioxide and in annual fossil energy consumption is not nibbling at the problem around the edges - this represents the single largest and most important immediate thing we can do to change the picture on the ground. And is something that will need to be done anyway. Doing this will increase the energy security (and military and economic security as well) of the US by making our country much leaner and able to prosper and live in comfort on far less energy - an carbon footprint impact the equivalent of removing the entire fleet of cars and light truck from the nation's roads and highways. You cannot get more major impact than that. Chris -Original Message- From: meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net To: everything-list everything-list@googlegroups.com Sent: Thu, Nov 14, 2013 7:23 pm Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On 11/14/2013 4:20 AM, Alberto G. Corona wrote: Yes. I proposed myself not to argue against sectarian apocalypticists because that is a waste of time, but honoring those of you that are not seduced by the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it movement, I will say something: Alas, some people just can't be relied on. Climatic models are bullshit. if you look at how they adjust parameters looking at the climategate mails you will have no doubt. Starting from that funny way for manufacturing models, it is no surprise that they predict nothing as Telmo said. First, the general circulation model developed at East Anglia is only one of a dozen or more and they all predict increasing temperature - including the pencil and paper calculation of Arhennius. In fact it's trivially easy to see that increased CO2 will raise the earth's temperature. CO2 absorbs light energy in infrared bands that are otherwise transparent. Without CO2 the planet would be too cold for human habitation (as already realized by Fourier). The difficulty in making accurate predictions of how much the CO2 we're adding will raise temperatures comes from accounting for the positive feedback effect of water vapor. Most models assume the world average relative humidity will stay the same. Some try to model ocean circulation from deep to shallow and assume water vapor pressure stays in equilibrium with the ocean surface. But these don't make any difference to the long term conclusion. There is a model of the earth nucleus. It is very good. Why? Because it behaves like the real nucleus. It invert polarity every 14000 years I believe, dont want to fire up the wikipedia to get the real digits. That is why it is a good model. Just like climate models parameter values have been inferred by matching past data. What would be a good test of a climatic model?. We know that at the glacial eras started when North and South America united by the istmus of Panama closed the free water movement between the atlantic and pacific. That changed the global water flow regimes and resulted in the two polar ice caps. It is easy to configure the continents in the climate models and see what happens in each configuration of the american continents. Why they dont try it?. Because they know that their models are lacking decades of research to get accurate
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona Sent: Friday, November 15, 2013 5:30 AM To: everything-list Subject: Re: Global warming silliness The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. They also have stopped further solar cell research in the countries where these subsidies have been granted. References? I leave as an exercise to figure out why that has happened. It is quite easy. But I guess that some people here well versed in QM and cosmology will be unable to figure it out. 2013/11/15 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com Hi Russell, On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 12:58 AM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 12:09:18PM +0100, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: The good news is that the figures I've seen is that its not such a tremendous cost after all. I am very interested in this. Could you be more specific? How can this be? Was there some breakthrough in sustainable sources that increased their efficiency? The following is an article dealing with the economics in Australia of PV vs coal fired stations http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-now-cheaper-than-coal-and-gas-in- australia-62268 And here is one for wind power: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/rising-risk-prices-out-new-coa lfired-plants-report-20130207-2e0s4.html These figure also do not include the existing carbon price of $20 per tonne. Existing fossil fuel generators will continue for a while, though, of course, particularly as renewables have not yet solved the baseload supply problem. Vanadium batteries may be good for that. Thanks for this. I hope it works. Reading the articles I have a feeling that this is more related to banks fearing investments in non-clean energy that could be subject to increasingly high taxes -- even though it appears that the Australian conservatives are not inclined to do that. I have no doubt that the technology is improving and I hope it does, but I would be more convinced if they addressed the hard numbers on the energy efficiency, sans current economical incentives, be they regulation or market conditions. Because I believe that those are the ones that will count in the long term. Part of the reason for my worry is that I saw heavy subsidising of wind farms destroy the industry in my home country (Portugal). The energy bill there is now about 60% taxes, to maintain the wind farms. Keeping your house warm in the winter is too expensive, even for the upper middle class. Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change we'd have to do something. Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one of the path leads to immense human suffering. The point is whether we do something, or do nothing, energy costs _will_ rise. Yes this _will_ lead to human suffering, either way. We can either choose to pay a bit more now, and have less costs later, or pay less now, and have steeper rises later. I agree that energy costs will rise and this is a very serious problem that we need to face. If you don't have to worry about CO2 so much, it's easier and less painful -- the more expensive fossil fuels become, the more economic incentive there will be for renewable sources. In this scenario we can retain economic freedom, which is highly correlated with prosperity. A 10 or 20% energy cost increase to hasten decarbonisation by a decade will save many billions of dollars of geo-engineering, or evironmental restoration down the track. Are you aware of geo-engineering proposals that would be very cheap? Nothing earth-scale will be cheap, or easy to understand all the consequences. Ultimately, it will need to come down to a cost-benefit analysis, factoring in the unknowns as some kind of risk factor. But if the technology break-throughs are real, we don't even have to worry all that much, maybe. There will be a lot of money to be made in moving to sustainable sources. Pushes for regulation make me suspect that the technology is not there yet. In which case I agree with you. Seems like quite an astute investment to me. Our current conservative government, alas, doesn't seem to think so. Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit of religious moralism. Telmo. They're not being ignored. But they do require a lot more small-scale research to understand their risk-benefit tradeoff. I never see this as part of the discussion. I'm very skeptical
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Alberto G. Corona Sent: Friday, November 15, 2013 5:33 AM To: everything-list Subject: Re: Global warming silliness I mean, the subsidies are for solar energy production. References 2013/11/15 Alberto G. Corona agocor...@gmail.com The fantastic amount of subsidies to the solar energy (That not even Germany will have enough budget to pay them) not only have destroyed the familiar and industrial economy with such incredible amount of taxes. They also have stopped further solar cell research in the countries where these subsidies have been granted. I leave as an exercise to figure out why that has happened. It is quite easy. But I guess that some people here well versed in QM and cosmology will be unable to figure it out. 2013/11/15 Telmo Menezes te...@telmomenezes.com Hi Russell, On Fri, Nov 15, 2013 at 12:58 AM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: On Thu, Nov 14, 2013 at 12:09:18PM +0100, Telmo Menezes wrote: On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:32 PM, Russell Standish li...@hpcoders.com.au wrote: The good news is that the figures I've seen is that its not such a tremendous cost after all. I am very interested in this. Could you be more specific? How can this be? Was there some breakthrough in sustainable sources that increased their efficiency? The following is an article dealing with the economics in Australia of PV vs coal fired stations http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/renewables-now-cheaper-than-coal-and-gas-in- australia-62268 And here is one for wind power: http://www.smh.com.au/business/carbon-economy/rising-risk-prices-out-new-coa lfired-plants-report-20130207-2e0s4.html These figure also do not include the existing carbon price of $20 per tonne. Existing fossil fuel generators will continue for a while, though, of course, particularly as renewables have not yet solved the baseload supply problem. Vanadium batteries may be good for that. Thanks for this. I hope it works. Reading the articles I have a feeling that this is more related to banks fearing investments in non-clean energy that could be subject to increasingly high taxes -- even though it appears that the Australian conservatives are not inclined to do that. I have no doubt that the technology is improving and I hope it does, but I would be more convinced if they addressed the hard numbers on the energy efficiency, sans current economical incentives, be they regulation or market conditions. Because I believe that those are the ones that will count in the long term. Part of the reason for my worry is that I saw heavy subsidising of wind farms destroy the industry in my home country (Portugal). The energy bill there is now about 60% taxes, to maintain the wind farms. Keeping your house warm in the winter is too expensive, even for the upper middle class. Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change we'd have to do something. Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one of the path leads to immense human suffering. The point is whether we do something, or do nothing, energy costs _will_ rise. Yes this _will_ lead to human suffering, either way. We can either choose to pay a bit more now, and have less costs later, or pay less now, and have steeper rises later. I agree that energy costs will rise and this is a very serious problem that we need to face. If you don't have to worry about CO2 so much, it's easier and less painful -- the more expensive fossil fuels become, the more economic incentive there will be for renewable sources. In this scenario we can retain economic freedom, which is highly correlated with prosperity. A 10 or 20% energy cost increase to hasten decarbonisation by a decade will save many billions of dollars of geo-engineering, or evironmental restoration down the track. Are you aware of geo-engineering proposals that would be very cheap? Nothing earth-scale will be cheap, or easy to understand all the consequences. Ultimately, it will need to come down to a cost-benefit analysis, factoring in the unknowns as some kind of risk factor. But if the technology break-throughs are real, we don't even have to worry all that much, maybe. There will be a lot of money to be made in moving to sustainable sources. Pushes for regulation make me suspect that the technology is not there yet. In which case I agree with you. Seems like quite an astute investment to me. Our current conservative government, alas, doesn't seem to think so. Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit of religious moralism. Telmo. They're not being ignored. But they do require a lot more small-scale research
RE: Global warming silliness
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of John Clark Sent: Friday, November 15, 2013 11:07 AM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Global warming silliness On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 4:19 PM, John Mikes jami...@gmail.com wrote: And for nukes? I would say: O N L Y fusion! The 'old fashion' fission nuke may be even more danerous than fossil pollution. Lets look at the disasters associated with various energy producing projects: In 1975 the Shimantan/Banqiao hydroelectric Dam in China failed and killed 171,000 people. In 1979 the Three Mile Island reactor melted down and killed nobody. In 1986 the Chernobyl nuclear plant melted down and killed 31 immediately and 4000 many decades later. In 1979 the Morvi hydroelectric Dam in India failed and killed 1500 people, In 1998 a oil pipeline in Nigeria exploded and killed 1078 people. In 1907 the Monongah Coal Mine in West Virginia exploded and killed well over 500 people. In 1944 a liquified natural gas factory exploded in Cleveland Ohio and killed 130 people. In 2011 the Fukushima nuclear power plant melted down and killed nobody. wait to see what happens to the cancer rates over the next fifty years. And you speak of Fukushima as if everything was under control when Tepco cannot even tell us where the material in the melted down cores of units #1,2 3 are? The Fukushima disaster has barely begun and you speak of it in the past tense. Chris John K Clark -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
Re: Global warming silliness
On 14 November 2013 16:47, meekerdb meeke...@verizon.net wrote: On 11/13/2013 7:26 PM, LizR wrote: On 14 November 2013 16:18, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: But as Telmo points out we can't just wait till fossil fuel runs out and then switch. It takes energy to build nuclear power plants and solar panels and wind tubines. In principle they could bootstrap themselves, but not on the time scale we need to make the transition. Who's suggesting we wait and then switch? A lot of the FUD campaign is to say the science is uncertain; we need to wait until we're sure. We can't take action that will have negative economic effects on the basis of imperfect climate models. Yes, of course they do, but that doesn't explain why Chris said the above in answer to me saying: Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change we'd have to do *something*. I think nuclear is a good short term solution, for sure. Especially subcritical reactors. This seems to be either misunderstanding what I was saying, or a straw man. Anyway, just to make my position clear... I think we should be switching to alternative power sources right now, to whatever extent we can, and *not* waiting until the oil runs out. Indeed if we wait for the oil to run out we will be bequeathing disasterous global warming AND a world without any readily available fossil fuel to our children. It would be nice to leave them some reserves of oil, coal etc, just in case they need them, as well as lowering the CO2 in the air, preferably before the oceans warm enough to melt the methane clathrate. I don't want to set the world on fire. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.